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What Debris From North Korea's Rocket Launch Shows
Lasrick writes "David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists analyzes the debris from North Korea's December 11th Unha-3 launch. From the article: 'According to press reports, traces on the inner walls of the tank show that the first-stage oxidizer is a form of nitric acid called "red-fuming nitric acid," which is the standard oxidizer used in Scud-type missiles. There had been some speculation that this stage might instead use a more advanced fuel with nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) as the oxidizer. Since the Nodong engines believed to power the first stage are scaled-up Scud engines, the use of RNFA is not a surprise. There have also been claims that the stage uses a more advanced fuel called UDMH, but it appears instead to be the kerosene-based fuel used in Scuds. In his recent RAND study, Markus Schiller noted that a test Iraq performed using UDMH in a Scud engine gave poor performance, and that burning UDMH gives a transparent flame. The North Korean video of the launch instead shows an orange flame characteristic of Scud fuels (Figure 3 is an image from 12:44 into the video). These findings confirm that the stage is still Scud-level technology.'"
Everyone knew these were nothing more than scaled up Scuds, it's been reported on for months.
I mean, it was the test of an MRBM/IRBM platform, it really is no surprise that it is only a technological hair away from its SRBM/MRBM ancestor...
while(1) attack(People.Sandy);
I wonder how much longer this festering little hell hole will last.
When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
It got us to the moon several times. Dont discount the "primitive" kerosene as a rocket fuel.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
But does it really matter what "technology" it uses if it can launch a bomb across an ocean? I don't think the parameters for success include "spend X billion inventing a new technology". Just the fact that they have managed to scale it up where other countries decided not to implies some sort of innovation. It's either cheaper, or they figured out a way to do it cheaper.
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
The Administration recently announced that America would focus their projection of power to the Asian-Pacific region. My guess is that the claims of a long range NK missile are either the allowance of idiotic intelligence assessments to further propaganda goals, or the outright fabrication of assessments for the same purpose.
China will squash NK like a gnat if they threaten regional stability in any real sense, but the if the United States allows that to happen, it will be a blow to perceived US power in that area. There has to be an open ended excuse for a strike or an invasion to avoid that possibility.
The sub-text being that it's not that great a technology. They underestimate the fact that the rocket/missile can still inflict damage if the North Koreans decided to.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag
No it isn't. That's some paranoia you got going on there
Is this thing capable or not capable of reaching orbit?
More importantly, is this thing capable or not capable of reaching targets half way around the globe? The fact is that it can very effectively reach targets on the other side of the globe.
An elitist condescension towards towards the technology, in this case, is as sensible as that attitude towards bashing someone's head in with a hammer. 'Pfft, a hammer, how crude. We use guns." The crudity doesn't really matter, in the end you're dead.
I was wondering whether the analysis was just based on video frames (since they talked about the colors of the flames and such) in the "AllThingsNuclear.org" article. The article itself says that the analysis is based upon four pieces of the first stage of the Unha-3 rocket recovered by South Korea. The author of the article, David Wright, surmises that all four pieces came from the first stage because they "were found in the same area".
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The four parts found were:
1 -- oxidizer tank (made of an aluminum-magnesium alloy)
with a cool picture (fig 4) of the inside of the tank showing hoops and stringers supporting the wall
2 -- two bottles that make the "turbo pumps" to maintain pressure in the oxidizer tank as the fuel flow continues during launch
3 -- another part of the fuel tank (with the number "3" painted on the outside which is visible on the launch video)
4 -- what appears to be a support ring from the first stage body
There's also a comment at the end about using "room temperature fuels" such as RFNA (red fuming nitric acid) allowing the use of a simplified design as compared to using cryogenic fuels which require a more complex design. Someone wrote in pointing out that RFNA is also used in the Russian Kosmos 3M space launch vehicle which is also derived from a ballistic missile. In fact, even the fins and the profile of the Kosmos looks like the fins on and the profile of the North Korean launch rocket. Pretty cool analysis, and I like that the author puts really links to the sources of the pictures he has in the article.
Just imagine all of the PR points you could win just by letting us space nerds in on what you're doing. We'll work most of it out anyway, but take us through all the technical gore. What you are doing seems like the closest thing to launching a fully fledged rocket from your backyard using nothing but spare parts lying around, so we can definitely relate with you here.
First of all, you can tell a LOT from this particular data point.
That aside, what are you insinuating? That a group widely and routinely chastised as espousing a "liberal" and/or "leftist" agenda by conservatives, opposed the now-cancelled US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program, and is opposed to nuclear weapons in general, is executing a propaganda campaign to make North Korea look more primitive than it really is when it comes to its rocket programs?
Are you serious?
After a veritable comedy of errors, North Korea finally has a successful launch, can't even get or keep the satellite launched from it into a stable orbit, and now an anti-nuclear advocacy group is really a secret US propaganda campaign to inappropriately embarrass the North Koreans, who are really more advanced in rocketry than all of their misadventures would indicate? The same North Koreans who just announced they have uncovered a unicorn lair?
Really? I mean...really?
Please â" I would love to hear how this is "propaganda", and how the DPRK is really a capable member of the space and nuclear clubs. To what possible end? Even IF it were true, why/how would that be a good thing?
Or is this one of those topsy-turvy bizarro-world lines of reasoning where anything and everything that is in ANY way opposed to anything related to any US or Western interest is automatically true and pure, but anything that originates from the US or West, in any way, shape, or form is always "propaganda"?
Actually, if you read the article, it points out that you can infer the use of a low pressure room temperature (non-cryogenic) fuel from (1) the relatively thin wall-thickness of the tank, and from (2) the bottles used in the turbo-pumps to maintain pressure in the fuel tank during launch. It points out (3) that while the Scud uses steel for the body of the first stage rocket, the North Korean one uses a more-lightweight aluminum magnesium alloy. ... BS" to me, but hey maybe I'm being taken in?
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I do agree with you that the article uses a lot of condescension in tone and uses the word "primitive" a lot to imply poor design, so there probably is a bit of propagandizing going on in order to denigrate the launch vehicle. But in my humble (and not very schooled) opinion, the analysis at least clearly lays out where it makes its inferences from and what the source of the imagery is. It doesn't seems like "pure
I have felt for some years that it's time to crush the North Korean dictatorship. The longer we let them develop, the more dangerous they will be.
The problem with that idea is China-- and it may be that since NoKo's technological progress is far slower than ours (Scuds is all they can do!?) waiting as long as possible is indeed a better strategy.
But I'm debating whether we want to let them develop first strike capability.
Of course, nobody mentions that the Gemini missions used storable propellants not unlike what the North Koreans are using. Now, it's true that Gemini was launched with Titan rockets, and Titans were originally designed as ICBMs, but they were used for civilian purposes as well.
The more interesting part is that we recovered the missile parts. According to everything I read, the exact timing of the launch was somewhat of a surprise (maybe this isn't true) but nevertheless we managed to track the debris and fish it out of the ocean immediately. This tells the North Koreans that not only do they have no secrets, they never will have any.
To me, the North Korean rocket looks a lot more like a satellite launcher than an ICBM. The first nuclear weapons that North Korea will deploy will be very heavy, and this rocket (as tapered as it is, and with such a small, low-powered third stage) just will not carry it. ICBMs are also designed to burn quickly, as they are vulnerable as long as they are in the atmosphere and burning. This rocket burns for many minutes, as satellite launchers do.
I love Mondays. On a Monday, anything is possible.
Enough said.
That many cities in the US will be smoking nuclear wastelands cause N Korea still considers itself to be in a state of war with the US. Geostratigicaly aligned with China, Iran, Pakistan.
It's not just "chemistry" it's freakin' rocket fuel chemistry and acronyms matter lest ye blow up!
Red Fuming Nitric Acid
RFNA is some nasty stuff. Worse liquid propellant oxider ever? Chlorine TriFloride (ClF3). Eats and/or combusts with everything and anything , including service & test engineers.
"...the Nodong engines..."
The whole insecurity of NK is so freudian it could only be put down to having no dong..
I have been a user for about 10 years. This ends Feb 2014. The site's been ruined. I'm off. Dice, FU
Nodong, but it's still a giant phallus
The problem is that "primitive design" is often read as "poor design" by non-technical people. Primitive designs may be pretty good in themselves, and work quite well, but have become obsoleted by more advanced designs. Now in how far the NK rocket design is obsolete I don't know, the article mentions at least the Russians use the same fuels to launch stuff into orbit.
And of course it's being played down. Many people don't want to see up to the fact that this country managed to put an object in orbit (didn't stay there long though), which places them in a quite short list of countries that did so too.
That said I'd much rather they'd put that much effort in actually feeding their own population. For example by getting their farming going again, instead of having to rely heavily on outside supplies.
The fact that the rocket is based on old technology is "Scud" news for South Korea. /tish
Donte Alistair Anderson Roberts - hi son!
Karma: Chameleon
"These findings confirm that the stage is still Scud-level technology."
Says who, a so-called "scientist" from the nation that just put the space shuttle into the scrapyard (where it belongs) - and has NOTHING to even do the same job as that old piece of junk?
As compared to what, the anti-gravity drive used by the latest US spaceships? Last time I checked EVERYONE still uses good old rockets. Oh sure - they now (occasionally) have a camera looking backwards for nice launch videos. And possibly they use fuel Y instead of fuel X - excuse me guys, you celebrate marginal, tiny advances as being far ahead of the stone-age North Koreans?
As far as getting into space, we ALL are at "stone-age" (1960s) level (i.e. rockets, huge flames, HUGE noise, lots of explosives). But today, progress is measured in micrometers, not in miles, so sure, let's celebrate how much more advanced we (the West) is compared to the most backward nation on earth.
NK's deterrent is still only conventional, their nuclear capability is a joke.
In short NK have made a career of being a nuisance and all their antics are little more than creating bargaining chips. NK only exists because China wants a satellite state that acts as a buffer. Let them handle the mess.
TCAP-Abort
Didn't you get the memo? A totally hostile regime armed with nukes and ICBM capabilities that we cannot attack because it holds Seoul hostage of its artillery must be mocked as often as possible in the media.
Forget Iran, forget Syria. North Korea is a Damn Serious threat that will be very difficult to solve.
The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
I forgot to add that if they manage to have the potential to get a nuclear war head to the US (territory) it does not freaking matter if they use a ballista, a rocket or beam it across space. Same outcome. I've no idea what all this "analysis" telling us how bad and backwards everything North Korean is (which I don't doubt at all) is supposed to tell the (western) public? It sounds sooooo stupid.
Ah, memories! RFNA and UDMH were what we used in Lance Missiles in the 70's/80's. These were aimed visually with hand cranks, a theodolite and a mirror. (a little more to the left) Interesting to see this called "advanced" in 2012.
Don't even try to compare the US to North Korea. Nothing is perfect, but NK is as close to hell as you will ever find on Earth at any point in history (maybe slightly exceeded by Khmer Rouge era Cambodia).
"Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem." -- Jefferson
Who's to say they didn't launch this rocket just to see what the rest of the world has to say about design flaws therefore doing all of the analysis work for them. Just because the the peasants can't access the real world doesn't mean the higher ups cant.
That said I'd much rather they'd put that much effort in actually feeding their own population.
They can't. They have no sources of energy required for food production on the kind of land they have, and thanks to US-instigated economic blockade, have no way to obtain them.
They are not stupid or crazy, just very poor, and the origin of their poverty is the same as in your nearest ghetto.
Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
First
For once, a First Poster is actually right, North Korea beat South Korea into space. Making them the first!
So if I'll find hydrazine on anything launched by US, I should claim that they are probably using WWII-time German designs, and go on and on how stupid are Americans for using engines that require single-component, self-igniting fuel?
Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
BS.
They're poor because their government insists on keeping them that way. If we undid the economic blockade, the "party members" would be rich, and everyone else would still be poor.
NK could do any number of things to end the economic blockade, because no one cares about ruling that country, they've only ever worried about a possibly batshit crazy leader with nuclear weapons. The cold war is long over and communism is dead.
BS.
They're poor because their government insists on keeping them that way. If we undid the economic blockade, the "party members" would be rich, and everyone else would still be poor.
NK could do any number of things to end the economic blockade, because no one cares about ruling that country, they've only ever worried about a possibly batshit crazy leader with nuclear weapons. The cold war is long over and communism is dead.
Do you have anything at all, other than words ot US propaganda workers, as the base for all those bold statements? Have you even seen any kind of Communist in your whole life, leave alone, a North Korean official? Studied economy of the region collecting information from actual sources? Did any comparisons between North Korean and Chinese leaders' actions over recent half a century of their history? And if not, please shut up and never talk about those things again.
Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
BS.
They're poor because their government insists on keeping them that way. If we undid the economic blockade, the "party members" would be rich, and everyone else would still be poor.
NK could do any number of things to end the economic blockade, because no one cares about ruling that country, they've only ever worried about a possibly batshit crazy leader with nuclear weapons. The cold war is long over and communism is dead.
Do you have anything at all, other than words ot US propaganda workers, as the base for all those bold statements? Have you even seen any kind of Communist in your whole life, leave alone, a North Korean official? Studied economy of the region collecting information from actual sources? Did any comparisons between North Korean and Chinese leaders' actions over recent half a century of their history? And if not, please shut up and never talk about those things again.
Wow. Your deeply reasoned post sighting even a shred of real-world evidence has swayed me!
Do you similarly have any facts to back up your grandiose claims that this is "all the US's fault"? No? Then shut up and never talk about the issue again.
North Korea's problems are North Korea's to solve. Their people have invented a de facto capitalist society, and the only one suppressing it is their own government. The only reason they have sanctions is because their own government repeatedly acts to threaten surrounding nations, and there's no reason to think that any kind of free trade wouldn't have the immediate consequence of the attempted importation of weapons and weapons technology for said government, and of course the attendant wealth-boosting of the few upper-members of the government.
Yes it might all work out in the long run, but it's not going to matter if Seoul has to deal with an actual practical North Korean nuclear weapon and not a hypothetical one (seeing as how it's unclear whether the one they built actually works at all). North Korea could easily obtain huge amounts of food and farming aid for it's citizens, since most of the world wants to give that to them - but of course, guess why they never take it.
Red Fuming Nitric Acid, not Red Nitric Fuming Acid. FWIW, the Vanguard first stage used IRFNA - Inhibited Red Fuming Nitric Acid as an oxidizer.
A Shadeless room is a brighter room.
Maybe they could close the MADD gap by launching satellites whose sole purpose are to (when they feel truly threatened) self-destruct in the most sensitive / busy orbits, causing a cascading demolition derby of satellite shrapnel.
Not exactly nuclear winter, but having to cleanup the entire upper atmosphere before re-establishing satellite communication would put a hell of a crimp in the Western world for at least a decade.
Wow. Your deeply reasoned post sighting even a shred of real-world evidence has swayed me!
I am not reasoning with you, I announce your ignorance and inability to have any opinion on the subject that is worth discussing. Go away.
Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
I dare you to make less sense.
Buddy, what is your deal? I have been reading your posts here and you seem to be on a singlehanded mission to convince the world that North Korea launching a busted-up old rocket is somehow the United States' fault. Your Occam's razor is dull and you may want to buy some more at the grocery store.
It's OK if you want to hate Americans. Lots of people all around the world do, and there are plenty of valid reasons to dislike many of the activities of the US government.
But please don't do it at the expense of trying to make North Korea look like saints or hapless victims of evil sanctions. The North Korean leadership is a nest of batshit crazy Stalinists, and evil to its people in a way that has not been seen on this planet since the Khmer Rouge. I know you will just claim that the National Geographic Society is just another mouthpiece of the CIA or whatever, but watch this and tell me honestly that the North Korean government gives a dead rat's ass about its citizens.
Hating Americans - well, I think that's overgeneralizing and a bit silly to say "all Americans are this or that," but hey, go ahead and do it if it floats your boat. Propping up the North Koreans - that's an insult to all the innocent people who suffer under that regime every day.
"95% of all Slashdot
Unsurprising. North Korea is Best Korea.
Looking forward to the Forward Progress of the Korean People's Worker Party under the leadership of the Dear Successor Comrade General Kim Jong Un!
And stuff.
Holy shit, you win the biggest moron I've seen on the internet all month award.
The problem is that "primitive design" is often read as "poor design" by non-technical people. Primitive designs may be pretty good in themselves, and work quite well, but have become obsoleted by more advanced designs
Indeed. The current workhorse of the manned spacecraft industry is the Soyuz-class capsule. First launched in 1966. It's had significant upgrades since then but the Soyuz-A and the Soyuz TMA-07MM (launched December 17, 2012) look very similar.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
NK is no direct threat to the USA and anyone asserting otherwise is a fearmonger. The worse thing they can do is invade the South, which from a purely selfish US-centric point of view would only be a major inconvenience. Only in the hypothetical case that South Korea and its allies cannot repel the attack, it would become a major geopolitical setback.
As a side note, I'd really like to see hard evidence about that 55-gallon drum claim; I don't see the driving force for optimizing the guidance system to that level of precision. I'm not saying it's wrong (I heard it before), just that I'd like to see the evidence.
You fool! Never say that!
All we need to know about NK is one simple fact.
Before the division of the country, it was the more prospering part, by a significant amount. After the division, that prosperity gap only lasted for a decade or so - that despite the fact that in that period of time, NK was supplied by Soviets and Chinese, so there was no blockade. Several decades later, it came to such dire straits, economically, that its residents were eating grass.
It doesn't have anything to do with NK being Communist (they aren't, by the way - they dropped all references to communism and Marxism-Leninism from their constitution 20 years ago; it's officially a cult of personality state now). It has everything to do with the fact that it's, essentially, a feudal totalitarian state which is owned by a single family, which owns luxury cars by dozens and sends its kids to study in European universities (blockade, eh?).
Check his post history, too. And the homepage/blog.
The guy is a Soviet immigrant to America who went broke, and is now incessantly whining everywhere about how bad US is and how awesome USSR was. He's asshole for sure, but it is excusable in his case, since he is obviously mentally ill.
Re: I hope they build a copy of the Buran ;>)
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I'd buy a ticket for that ride! Much better than the roller coaster ever could be, eh? ! !
Re: "These findings confirm that the stage is still Scud-level technology."
I wouldn't be so sure about that. The artifact in figure 7 in the accompanying article looks an awful lot like a Stargate.
There was an interesting story on NPR yesterday about the DPRK. It's a very paternalistic/chauvinistic society much like South Korea used to be. At some point in the past, leadership decided state jobs were too important to be occupied by women. So women were largely moved out of the labor force since there was no private enterprise. Well the collapse of the USSR (and China's reduced interest) decimated the state economy. As rations dwindled, the women had to get rolling for families to survive. Informal (unsanctioned) private markets were initially limited to elderly women but as the economic conditions worsened, the DPRK increasingly looked the other way as women of all ages scrambled to keep the family fed. In the meantime, the menfolk were busy going to work at jobs that didn't pay much. When I say didn't pay much, we're talking pennies a day. Every male is either in the military (~10 years) or working for the state. But since state jobs pay so little, women have become the dominant family breadwinners. The situation is so dire for men in that arse backwards country that some PAY not to go to their state job. You see you have to go to work at your state job even if there's nothing to do. You have to go to work at your state job even if you don't get paid. If you don't show for work, they coming looking for you. The only 'out' is an informal system where men pay NOT to go to work. Obviously, that money is coming either from remittances or the money the wife makes. The take home is that the DPRK is running a society-wide, generations-long sociocultural experiment that has far more significance than their rocket launch.