Data Analyst Spoils the World's Biggest Song Vote

littlekorea writes "A data analyst has successfully predicted the top ten songs of the world's biggest song contest — the Triple J Hottest 100 — by extrapolating voting intentions fans had posted on Twitter and Facebook. Nick Drewe's Warmest 100 list closely mimicked the Hottest 100 results, predicting the top three in correct order and predicting 92 of the most popular 100 songs."

Comments

How is this spoiling?

[TWX]

That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... Just because they looked at the signs and figured out how others were going to vote doesn't mean that they spoiled anything.

Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... Just because they looked at the signs and figured out how others were going to vote doesn't mean that they spoiled anything.

Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.

Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).

Re:How is this spoiling?

[TWX]

Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).

If his prediction was important enough to warrant rearranging the universe, then perhaps the Republican fielded a worse candidate than we could have possibly feared...

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

Godwin-ing this shit now: God didn't rearrange the universe to avoid HITLER's election.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

How do you know He didn't? Hitler never won a majority vote until he outlawed the other parties. It was alliances with the other parties that allowed him to become Chancellor. The election prior to passing the Enabling Act his party only won 44% of the vote. The Enabling Act required a 2/3rds vote (it passed with 83%). The cowardice of the other parties to stand up to Hitler is a major reason he was able to get so much absolute power so quickly.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[nabsltd]

Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).

When you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... .

Didn't they?

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

I read it as spoiling the surprise, as I'm sure did many others. Keep in mind that various details of business dealings (agent contracts, playtime) may be influenced by such a list, and so there's a great many people anticipating it, including "fans" who want their artist to win.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[osu-neko]

That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... Just because they looked at the signs and figured out how others were going to vote doesn't mean that they spoiled anything.

Actually, it does.

Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.

What would influencing the vote have to do with it? I think you're misreading what it meant by "spoil" in this context: to reveal the ending early, which is exactly what they did.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[The Master Control P]

Not for anyone who was remotely informed of matters by the reality-based faction of media/pollsters.

I understand that it came as a bit of a shocker to some people who refused to listen, but that's the wonderful thing about Reality - it's that which still remains when you stop fantasizing about it.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[DRJlaw]

What would influencing the vote have to do with it? I think you're misreading what it meant by "spoil" in this context: to reveal the ending early, which is exactly what they did.

Another weapon for the AGW arsenal... climate scientists are 'spoiling' the future!

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

He let his own son slowly die on a cross.... Killing his chosen people wouldn't exactly be unprecedented....

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

What about the time they spoiled Snape killing Dumbledore?

Re:How is this spoiling?

[mrsquid0]

Perhaps things would have been much worse without Hitler. Stephen Fry wrote an amusing book based on this idea.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Vylen]

I don't think the results were spoiled as such. More that the 'fun' of betting on who would top the list was spoiled - especially given that some betting outlets halted bets on the list as a consequence of the analysis.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[dgatwood]

Yeah, sure. Next thing you're gonna tell me is that Darth Vader is Luke Skywalker's father.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

Exactly. Had Hitler been able to realize his ultimate goal, he would have united the world. There would be no yearly epidemics because only the best disease-resistant Caucasian genes would be present in all, and there would be flying cars(with the advanced state of immunological research that go along with that level of technology). With the undesirable genes wiped from the face of the planet, the movie Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles would have actually had humor, not Schlomo schlepping around saying, "Oy, vey!"

A dream of national socialism for one nation, committed to bringing out the best of the human species. It almost brings a tear to my eye, a tear of pleasure imagining such a world; and a tear of pain knowing that Hitler will now never be able to realize his dream. He was a wonderful man, a true rags-to-riches story. Wrote his best while imprisoned, like Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

We will now never enjoy being strong and united. We must hope, someday, that a new leader will take his place -- ushering in a new era of Nietzhe-influenced national socialism.

-- Ethanol-fueled

Re:How is this spoiling?

[niftydude]

Perhaps things would have been much worse without Hitler.

Of course things would have been much worse - if ww2 didn't happen my grandmother would have married the first person she was engaged to rather than my grandfather, and I would never have been born.

A world without me would suck the big one!

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Elijha]

You're right, but you forgot you're reading Slashdot, where the mantra is "Politicise and Americanize as fast as possible (albeit exaggerated) !!!! and let 'em find out the truth if they RTFA." Or in this case, just the summary.

TFTFY

Re:How is this spoiling?

[TWX]

Aw, I had a t-shirt that acknowledged that one... A lot of people were not happy that I saved them several hours...

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

Nietzsche didn't influence national socialism. His works were very selectively edited by his sister who was a Nazi to try to give a philosophical background to and synch with Naziism. Nietzsche was very critical of antisemitism and nationalism in his writings. If Nietzsche would have been alive when the Nazis came to power, he would have been one of the first ones targeted.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[AdamWill]

I think we're talking 'spoiled' in the sense of 'spoilers follow!', not in the sense of 'ruined'.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

Dan Rather, Florida, November 2000.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Opportunist]

Actually, statistical predictions CAN influence voting results considerably. Independent of the system used, for different reasons.

Especially first-past-the-post systems are prone to influence from predictions. If the statistics tell that candidate A is leading with 90%, a lot of people might consider not going to the polls, considering their vote is moot either way, whether they like him or not. Not too long ago, election predictions foretold a landslide victory for a certain party over here which nearly turned into a disaster for them. Nice weather convinced quite a few of their supporters that their vote isn't needed and that heading for the beach instead of the voting booth is a good idea, while seemingly that "shocking" news made people go to the polls that wanted to "limit the damage".

Predictions have an especially big influence on the success of smaller parties in systems where a certain percentage of voters is required to get a seat in the parliament. A prediction that tells a party will make it into the parliament can easily convince people who actually want this group to have a voice to vote for them who would have voted for their "second best" choice instead that makes it for sure (and hence makes their vote count), while a prediction that they will probably not make it can prove disastrous, as has been shown lately with the German FDP that was actually eliminated from a few state parliaments in recent elections after predictions that they might not make it.

And I don't even want to talk about those strange individuals who want to feel better by picking the "winning" party instead of voting for someone that actually represents their goals.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[mister2au]

Nope - it's like saying someone spoiled American Idol or Eurovision by crunching social media data.

Difference here is that the social media implementation was designed to share votes with Facebook friends only and the analysis involved 'hacking' the URLs ...

Re:How is this spoiling?

[AK Marc]

I've not read that book, but I had postulated the same thing many times. But Hitler is a cog, not a driving force. The hardship caused by WWI caused WWII. I'd be interested in seeing what would have happened if WWI never happened. That was the senseless one. WWII was caused by WWI. Much like a bit of the trouble in the middle east was caused by the ending of WWII. So what would have happened if WWI didn't happen, or the ending was different? It would be interesting to see, though I'd never write a book about the alternative, as that seems plenty ambitious/presumptuous.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[AK Marc]

You didn't save them anything. I waited until I saw all the movies before I read all the books. Knowing the plot didn't affect the books.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Jmc23]

Ah, so you're the one currently sucking the big one so the world doesn't have to.

Thanks.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

Ergo, Romney was worse than Hitler.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[adolf]

Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).

Impossible. The only reason we had an election to begin with, or a Nate Silver to discuss the results before they happen, is because Morgan Freeman narrated it in advance.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[iserlohn]

WWI happened mainly because of colonialism an it doesn't stop there; we can recurse into this until the neolithic.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[AK Marc]

I thought it was old treaties and perhaps byproducts of colonialism, but it wasn't caused by colonialism as a primary cause. The colonial world war was Vietnam. US vs USSR in SE Asia, based on French colonialism.

But the only way colonialism was a cause of WWI was treaties and alliances made when splitting up the world that didn't work for more domestic conflicts. The way you can be sure that there wasn't some underlying greater cause is that the US took longer to enter (like WWII) and the side wasn't even certain at first (unlike WWII). There was a large push to enter the war on the side of the Germans. Especially in PA and other loci of German immigration.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Smauler]

Hate to break it to you, but I don't even know the last time any party in the UK won 44% of the vote. This is how most of the world works - only the US has quite such an exclusive 2 party system.

Just found some stats here. Last time a party got more than 44% was 1970, then only just.

Note that this page also shows how flawed first past the post is. In the '83 election, the percentages of the top 3 party's vote were 42, 27, 25. The respective percentage shares of seats in the house of commons were 61, 32, 3. This can also be seen to a lesser extent in recent elections.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[simoncpu was here]

I miss the old Slashdot trolls. Trolling, as long as it's not disruptive, leads to interesting discussions such as this.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually, statistical predictions CAN influence voting results considerably. Independent of the system used, for different reasons.

Care to share a citation or evidence that it changes voting results? You can't, right?

Oh, sure, you'll find sociology papers that try to argue that it does. They do so with flawed assumptions or methodologies. You'll also find a couple of experimental social psychology papers that seek to demonstrate that it does in a controlled environment. Look closer, however, and ask yourself whether they're actually measuring user voting, user vote intents, user consistency with prior votes, or anything like that. You simply can't tell for sure.

The trouble here is that you cannot rerun a vote with the same voters and the same options. Even in a controlled environment, the context is different enough that your margin of error erases any statistical blip that may turn up.

This much is sure: it certainly influences voting intentions, through bandwagon and capitulation effects and so forth. But it does so for winners, losers, everyone. The evidence that final, aggregate result got changed in the end, however, is inconclusive. It simply cannot reliably and reproducibly be measured and compared to what it has been without polls. Plus, for all we know, polls have no more significant an effect on the final results than e.g. following the news or discussing voting intentions of your work colleagues.

Re: How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

If you were God, you wouldn't want to make the same mistake twice, would you?

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

Is that you Sheldon Cooper?

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Gr8Apes]

Yeah, the sooner we get rid of the laws and illegal practices (in spirit, if not actual law) that support the two party system, the better off we'll be.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Opportunist]

Now how exactly would you suggest to set up a test that proves scientifically that there is an influence? There is no sensible way for that. One can only draw conclusions from declared intention and outcome, and ponder the influence if there is a mismatch. If 10% of the population declare their support for a certain party but only 1% votes for them, one has to assume that the reason was that the other 9% didn't think they'd make it into parliament.

Well, maybe the various Pirate Parties all over the globe will allow us to put that assumption to the test. There is support of 10-15% for most of them in their population, well above the required minimum votes to make it into parliament in pretty much all countries I know that have a proportional representation. My hypothesis is now that whether or not people will actually vote for them or whether they will rather vote for the "next best that makes it for sure" will largely depend on whether polls give them a chance to make it into parliament.

Time will tell.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

Futurama quote FTW :D

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

WWII was caused by WWI.

It would be more fair and accurate to say that WWI created the conditions which allowed Hitler to capitalize on the fears and emotions of a bankrupt nation. We can argue until the cows come home about whether or not someone else would have stepped in to fill his shoes had he been killed, etc. but in the end we simply have no way of ever knowing for sure.
We can have the same discussion about any other person of great Charisma who seized some opportunity in History to further their own agenda.

As for the article... Harry Seldon, eat your heart out.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[highphilosopher]

Meh, I think you're wrong. It's not as cool to be american on /. anymore. Now whenever we mention our country, someone from across the pond says something to the effect of "Don't you realize the rest off the world does it differently" which starts some sort of culture war. It's rather annoying. Nevertheless, I do like my country even if others don't. I'm glad we all don't actually, cause then it would never change. After a while it would be a boring place to live.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[AK Marc]

It would be more fair and accurate to say that WWI created the conditions which allowed Hitler to capitalize on the fears and emotions of a bankrupt nation.

As a number of fiction authors have toyed with, if Hitler didn't come around, someone else would have. Germany was hurt by the WWI ending. It would be easy for a country in that state to pick a fight. The unifier wasn't that big of a deal, and had it been someone more sane, Germany could have done better in WWII.

We can argue until the cows come home about whether or not someone else would have stepped in to fill his shoes had he been killed, etc. but in the end we simply have no way of ever knowing for sure.

Are you honestly asserting that if Hitler had never been born that WWII wouldn't have happened?

People are hinting that Japan may be starting WWIII by putting up its own satellites so it's not dependent on anyone else for intel.

Re:How is this spoiling?

[Anonymous Coward]

It's actually hard to say... could the National Socialists really have rebuilt the German economy so quickly without an orator of Hitler's vigor?

WWII occurred on the back of the biggest wave of economic expansion in German history, so you have to give the crazy assholes some credit for that at least...

Of course, that doesn't preclude WWII happening... but without the Nazis, Germany probably wouldn't have been in any state to initiate it.

k...

[Anonymous Coward]

did you even look at the page?

He goes very much out of his way not to spoil it, but giving you half a dozen very large warnings.

This just in

[girlintraining]

Asking people how they're going to vote determined to have predictive value in how they will vote, says latest Slashdot article. Please tag with #obvious and #slownewsday. :/

Re:This just in

[Anonymous Coward]

Sorry Alphatel, but we've never heard of you either. However we do deeply care about your opinion regarding our radio station. Please tell us more.

Regards,

Australia.

Re:This just in

[girlintraining]

Sorry Australia, but I've never heard of Triple J nor do I care what you think the top 100 songs are.

Australia has heard of you, however, but doesn't care. They're too busy trying to keep the dingos from eating the babies.

Re:This just in

[rat7307]

But you felt the need to comment because....???????

You must be real fun at all your friends parties.

Oh..... sorry.

Re:This just in

[Bill Currie]

Good grief, that joke got old back in '89 (before what's-her-name left the news, even). What's it doing still kicking around?

Re:This just in

[TWX]

That joke never gets old. I probably hear it a half a dozen times a year in random places and it still puts a smile on my face.

Now back to reading Xanth...

Re:This just in

[TWX]

Wow... The entire continent of Australia is more Hipster than you are!

Re:This just in

[Anonymous Coward]

How can you make a joke like that. A mother lost her baby. You sick deviant.

Re:This just in

[MrKaos]

Sorry Australia, but I've never heard of Triple J nor do I care what you think the top 100 songs are.

Australia has heard of you, however, but doesn't care. They're too busy trying to keep the dingos from eating the babies.

and listening to the hottest 100 on the beach

Re:This just in

[volmtech]

People are lazy. If the polls indicate that your candidate is winning you might just stay home and not trouble yourself to vote. The networks called Bush the winner in Florida at 7:00 pm Eastern time but west Florida is in the Central time zone so voting was open for another hour. Bush only carried Florida (and the election) by 600 votes. What if 601 people in Pensacola had though Bush had it and stayed home. We can only wish.

Re:This just in

[thegarbz]

How about another look at it, The hottest 100, a vote that has been carried out for more than 20 years has for the first time been accurately predicted due to the proliferation of social media the the facility from Triple J to have a one click button to upload your votes to {insert social network here}.

This actually IS news. Walk around the streets and ask people what they voted for (if they remember at all) would have given you such a statistically insignificant result you would have trouble predicting the top song let alone the number of songs they got.

Re:This just in

[s1lverl0rd]

I believe the correct term is 'insensitive clod.'

Re:This just in

[tehcyder]

If the polls indicate that your candidate is winning you might just stay home and not trouble yourself to vote.

No, people either vote or they don't. You might try to rationalise your apathy and laziness, but when it comes down to it you're just apathetic and lazy. if you can't be arsed to vote.

Re:This just in

[volmtech]

Then why do the networks go to great pains not to start calling winners on election night until local polls close? Are they just hyping the coverage to get more viewers and ratings?

Graph Search

[Anonymous Coward]

“Facebook Graph Search wasn’t that useful,”

Yup

subject

[Legion303]

I've never even heard of any of the top 25, and none of the top 66 are in my Google Music playlists. I guess that makes me old.

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

Unless you were in EU or AU, I wouldn't take it that way - US/CA vs. AU/NZ/EU music tastes are generally quite different with the exception of a few artists that manage to bridge the gap.

Re:subject

[wiredlogic]

That's because this is a list from Australia. It demonstrates how much control the regional record industries have over what people "want" to hear.

Re:subject

[jonwil]

I am an Aussie and love good Aussie music and I haven't heard of any of the songs in the top 20.

In saying that, I should point out to the foreigners here that Triple J isn't exactly mainstream (Triple J started out as a station to play all the artists that commercial radio was ignoring and still does so today in some cases)

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

So much for biggest song contest. I don't doubt there is *a* metric by which it's the biggest, but this didn't spring to mind when I read the headline.

Re:subject

[Trepidity]

I've never even heard of any of the top 25, and none of the top 66 are in my Google Music playlists.

From this comment, can we infer that #67, a track entitled "On Top" by musical artist "Flume" (featuring guest artist "T-Shirt") is on your playlist?

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

Neither have I, but that's probably because I don't listen to shitty music.

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

That may have been true in its inception, but it's just as commercial as the rest of them, only now they play "commercial indie" and almost nothing else with exceptions to scattered half-hour segments that are on at 11 at night.

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

The moment you use the words "Hottest 100" you lose all rights to be anything but mainstream.

Re:subject

[Dexter Herbivore]

So much for biggest song contest. I don't doubt there is *a* metric by which it's the biggest, but this didn't spring to mind when I read the headline.

Triple J has one of, if not the, largest listenership numbers of any station in the world. It's a single station broadcast nationwide and the voting attracts international interest.

Re:subject

[MrKaos]

So much for biggest song contest. I don't doubt there is *a* metric by which it's the biggest, but this didn't spring to mind when I read the headline.

one and a half million people voted. Is there a bigger song contest put there?

Re: subject

[Anonymous Coward]

That's some good analysis right there.

Re:subject

[mister2au]

This surprises me with the number of people saying the same ... and assuming most are US-based.

Just looking at the top 10:
Mackelmore was #1 Billboard Hot 100
Of Monster and Men hit #25 ( and #1 on the alternative charts)
Mumford & Sons have been all over the charts / awards
Tame Impala won Rolling Stone album of the year
Frank Ocean has 6 Grammy nominations on the go

Then there are other 'mainstream' artists:
- Calvin Harris
- The Black Keys
- Skrillex

I suspect it is less about age and more about:
- American music being dominated by a limited subset of artists
- Australian music being a "broadly equal" fusion of US artists, European artists and local artists
- Triple J being an alternative music station

Re:subject

[volmtech]

Actually, the only song on the list I remember hearing is the #1. That's only because my daughter was listing to the radio while cooking something in our kitchen. I remember when "Alley Oop" was number one.

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

Unfortunately this is not true. Triple J is easily outrated by the clearchannel pop stations in every Australian city, and every timeslot.

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

I suspect it is due to the internet and availability of musicians that we want to hear instead of being force fed the mainstream crap that is in the list. I listen to a lot of different musicians in a lot of different genres from hundreds of years ago to modern times and haven't heard of a single one of those musicians because I avoid the crap played on the radio and on television like the plague.

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

Possibly makes you not an average Australian. (RTFAA)

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

So much for biggest song contest. I don't doubt there is *a* metric by which it's the biggest, but this didn't spring to mind when I read the headline.

one and a half million people voted. Is there a bigger song contest put there?

The Eurovision.

Re:subject

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm in the EU and I know about 5 songs in the entire list. None in the top 20.

No idea where you get this notion that Australia and the EU listen to similar music. Maybe if your view of the EU is restricted to the UK (and, even then, only a handful of acts are successful on both sides of the globe).

Re:subject

[mister2au]

Not what the OP said ...

On a city-by-city basis JJJ is typically #3 across the key demographics of 18-39 ie eliminating the AM talk stuff ... as a single national station, its national audience is larger than any individual single-city station.

Re:subject

[mister2au]

What?

- Thrift Shop (the #1 song) has been played on Aussie radio for 3 months and was #1 in the ARIA charts a few weeks ago
- Little Talks was #7 and is still #14 now
- Sweet Nothing peaked at #2
- I Love it peaked at #3
- Feel the Love peaked at #3

And Same Love is the current #1 single, so make that at least 6 songs!

So at least 30% have been Top 10 songs and you haven't heard any of them???

Re:subject

[MrKaos]

So much for biggest song contest. I don't doubt there is *a* metric by which it's the biggest, but this didn't spring to mind when I read the headline.

one and a half million people voted. Is there a bigger song contest put there?

The Eurovision.

Yeah, but the Eurovision is for people with talent.

Re:subject

[tehcyder]

Yeah, but the Eurovision is for people with talent.

You have clearly never watched the Eurovision.

Great!

[Anonymous Coward]

So now computers can accurately predict all the music I don't ever want to hear, we should be able to invert that list and finally rid ourselves of pop drivel!

Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision?

[Anonymous Coward]

Anyone ever heard of it, it's only like all of Europe (and Russia, and much of the middle east)

Re:Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision?

[Anonymous Coward]

"which attracts a whopping 1.5 million votes from Australian music lovers." - Tripple J - http://www.itnews.com.au/News/330228,warmest-100-even-hotter-than-forecast.aspx
100 - 600 million votes - eurovision - http://www.aljazeera.com/archive/2006/05/2008410141723346664.html http://www.museum.tv/eotvsection.php?entrycode=eurovisionso

Re:Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision?

[jamesh]

Anyone ever heard of it, it's only like all of Europe (and Russia, and much of the middle east)

Never heard of it.

TripleJ Hottest 100 is actually a poll to vote in the top 100 songs of the year. I think the Eurovision is a different thing. If TFS was written by someone with the slightest bit of competence we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Re:Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision?

[YesIAmAScript]

Seriously. When I read the title, it was obvious it meant Eurovision. But oddly, it doesn't. Eurovision must get at least 250M votes, right? Possibly even a billion.

Re:Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision?

[Anonymous Coward]

Eurovision is a song contest, Hottest 100 is a poll of the most popular songs released each year by the music industry (and to be honest, only the ones that get played on Triple J). Similar but different.

Oh, and all the songs on Eurovision are complete crap. There's that too.

Re:Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision?

[YesIAmAScript]

title:
'Data Analyst Spoils the World's Biggest Song Vote'

In Eurovision you vote for songs. And it's far bigger.

Title wrong. End of story. Drop mike on floor.

Re:Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision?

[DeathElk]

Oh, and all the songs on Eurovision are complete crap. There's that too.

Hmm, that actually rings true for both Eurovision and Triple J's programming. Watched some of the "Rage Hottest 100 Countdown" last night. Frikkin' passive aggressive/passive passive indie drivel. Except for the Black Keys. Enjoyed that one.

Re:Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision?

[one eyed kangaroo]

Heard of it?- yes, but only because I am from Australia. (BTW, I am highly suspicious of how some artists get airtime on this government funded station. Getting your stuff played means a lot commercially here, as the station is hugely popular and can be heard pretty much anywhere on the continent. There is no equivalent of this station in the US).

Having said all of that, there is no way that this is the "World Biggest Song Vote".

Just my $AU 0.02c worth

Wait til Google gets started on their graph search

[eksith]

You'll be able to predict your children's future. And safely give up the sociopaths for adoption.

Social media

[jamesh]

Whilst listening to the countdown yesterday I was pondering the idea that the warmest 100 is flawed because it only takes into account the votes from people who think the rest of the world cares about their every thought. Turns out I was wrong... I guess I'm a bit older than the Triple J target demographic these days - I wasn't 20 years ago though dammit!

Next year i'm posting my votes on facebook, just to throw it out a little bit :)

Re:Social media

[Elijha]

Well that's just it though isn't it, the voters are people who think other need to know what they think is cool and want to influence the list. Doesn't that make them likely to proper-gate their votes online to influence others and to make themselves 'look cool' when the songs they voted for do well'. Isn't this similar to people who put vote for X signs on their lawns?

Re:Social media

[thegarbz]

Whilst listening to the countdown yesterday I was pondering the idea that the warmest 100 is flawed because it only takes into account the votes from people who think the rest of the world cares about their every thought. Turns out I was wrong...

No you were right. The only thing you got wrong is the assumptions about how many people will click a "share" button on a website. The fact twitter exists at all, and that everyone from a gangsta rapper, to the pope, and ages between a 10 year old girl and a grandma use the service should be an indication of just how much people like to share their pointless lives.

Way more than half of twitter users are over the age of 35.

The votes are in!

[PPH]

And the winner is ....

Re:The votes are in!

[Azure Flash]

Really? He made the top 100 of this list with such an old song? Wow. Good for him. It is pretty catchy, I have to admit.

Re:The votes are in!

[Anonymous Coward]

*whoosh*

Re:The votes are in!

[DeathElk]

Ouch, got me :P

Re:The votes are in!

[MartinSchou]

Does it count as one, if I was thinking "please let it be that" before I clicked?

Re:The votes are in!

[MrKaos]

Really? He made the top 100 of this list with such an old song? Wow. Good for him. It is pretty catchy, I have to admit.

He did host rage recently,

Re:The votes are in!

[Anonymous Coward]

You are a shithead and a fuckwit. And I hope you die in a fucking fire. And I want the moronic mods who voted you up to similarly die in a fire. You post provides nothing of substance, instead repeats a stupid meme that should have been left in the past. And the mods giving you insightful (as opposed to funny; or even better moding you down) should have their mod points revoked and their brains replaced with that of a cat. Obviously they are stupider than a cat.

Please die.

Re:The votes are in!

[Anonymous Coward]

How's your Nichtlachen-Kleinwortz syndrom doing?

Re:The votes are in!

[Anonymous Coward]

What fucking joke you miserable piece of shit? There is no joke. It's a boring outdated and tired meme that wasn't funny when it was popular. To suggest that there is a joke and that I'm just a humourless twat is an absurdity in the highest order. I recognised that it was meant to be a joke (hence the mods should have voted it funny bit). But it wasn't funny.

In conclusion, fuck off and die.

So obvious

[Anonymous Coward]

When most songs and music is now generated by "artists' directed by agents telling them what to do and sing based on analytics, is it that surprising that analytics predicts the outcome of analytics produced crap???

Re:So obvious

[Anonymous Coward]

Because in the 60s and 70s it wasn't? With the exception of AAA bands (Beatles, Stones, that kind of level), nearly every "hit" was written by a team of anonymous songwriters, arranged by a team of anonymous producers, and then sung by some talking (singing?) head picked for his or her looks.

The recording industry hasn't changed much in the past 50 years - and that is precisely its problem.

Re:So obvious

[Anonymous Coward]

Have you listened to a single one of these songs?

Two things.

[Anonymous Coward]

1. This "story" is on Slashdot only because of the Australia connection. Without that, you'd never have heard of the Warmest 100 List.

2. Out of 100 songs/singers/artists/whatever, I recognized exactly... None. Zero. Now I know I don't listen to radio, or watch TV, or anything, but shit, I cannot believe there is nobody I've heard of in the Top 100. Yes, I know, teeny pop music waits for no emo kid, and certainly not for grizzled old men such as myself, but, shit... No recognizable names at all?

Re:Two things.

[TWX]

And I wouldn't know what a Chrysler VH Charger is without the Australian connection on one of the Chrysler forums that I participate on, even though Chrysler Australia was an unusual overseas sister company that modified more than just which side the steering wheel is on.

I don't have a problem with some esoteric stuff on /.

Re:Two things.

[deek]

1. Your cynicism is getting the better of you. This is a valid news for nerds story, about how data analysis successfully predicted the majority of a list meant to be kept secret. The story would have been interesting, had it come from any part of the world.

2. The Triple J station is known for playing many alternative and unknown artists. It's a government funded station, but editorially independent from government by law. Your list of known songs/singers/artists are likely influenced by your regional tastes, and also commercial interests of the stations you listen to. These would not match up with an alternative music station.

2a. Have a listen to Thrift Shop, the song that made #1. I'm not generally one for hip-hop, but I liked it. Great lyrics, has some good things to say about fashion labels and stylistic expectations. Interestingly enough, the song is independent of commercial labels, and has had great success in US/Canada/Australia/New Zealand.

Re:Two things.

[Anonymous Coward]

The OP does make a good point though.

These days it seems like every second story has something to do with Australia and very few of them are particularly compelling from the point of view of news for nerds. For the most part it's usually an exercise in flag-waving.

Yeah of course Slashdot needs to be global in reach and also there needs to be coverage on the weekends but there's no denying we're seeing the site and editors playing favorites.

Maybe Slashdot should branch out with local domains, say slashdot.com.au since that's what Slashdot is in danger of becoming, but also .co.uk, .de, .it, others? It would expand its reach with foreign language version and head off the valid claims of regional and national favoritism.

Re:Two things.

[caffeine_high]

I've been listening to triplej for about 20 years and as usual there are plenty of songs I do not recognize in the list. That is part of the deal with triplej, no comfort zone of classics and far more new music than you can follow.

There will be a few teeny pop songs in the list but if you listen to a few, you'll see that the range is far more diverse and none of the usual pop artists.

Over the past few years triplej has been doing a lot of work to foster local music, their site http://www.triplejunearthed.com/ is great and you can legally download plenty of good music.

I guess one day my music tastes will crystallize and I'll join the host of others who think that music was best in year X (usually when they were a teenager). I'll fight that as long as I can.

Re:Two things.

[Dexter Herbivore]

There's a big gap in timezones where the major western country is Australia. So it's minimal news at all during that part of the day, or you get Australian stories when the Australian readership is online.

Re:Two things.

[sco08y]

1. This "story" is on Slashdot only because of the Australia connection.

Only thing worse than editors: people constantly bitching "I'm not interested thus this story shouldn't have been posted."

Some of us actually work in data analysis and find it interesting. Sorry everything can't be about the wonders of your roommates' basement.

Re:Two things.

[MrKaos]

2. Out of 100 songs/singers/artists/whatever, I recognized exactly... None. Zero. Now I know I don't listen to radio, or watch TV, or anything, but shit, I cannot believe there is nobody I've heard of in the Top 100. Yes, I know, teeny pop music waits for no emo kid, and certainly not for grizzled old men such as myself, but, shit... No recognizable names at all?

You have qualified yourself as a fuck wit. JJJ is one of the reasonable quality non-pop stations that doesn't play teeny shit like many of the commercial stations. AND there are no advertisements spoiling the vibe.

Re:Two things.

[Anonymous Coward]

And you're a "jjj" douchewad fanboy of the worst fucking kind. Where does the OP/GP criticize the station. He's merely stating that he hasn't heard of any of these songs and artists. Probably because he's old and treasures his ZZ Top collection or some shit like that.

Yeesh. Kids today.

Re:Two things.

[Anonymous Coward]

There's a big gap in timezones where the major western country is Australia.

When did THAT happen? Seriously, Aussies, I know you love to think of yourself as the United States of Australia, but seriously... You're not a "major" country, western or otherwise.

Oh, I know, you're going to get shitty and mod this down, but facts are facts. Australia is just another minor remnant of someone else's faded empire.

Re:Two things.

[mister2au]

Of course the AC missed the point and goes the easy troll ...

Australia is a western country by most measures - linguistic, cultural, political, economic - if not geographic ... hence why the OP did not say western hemisphere.

In the early AM hours of North America and Europe, Australia is one of the few western country with a significant online population ... so yes on a 24hr forum/site, you will get Australian stories when Australia is one for few nation that are awake!

Also there is a larger proportion on the weekend for some reason - one could guess that perhaps there is a cultural difference where some countries like to use Slashdot on their employer time but not their own - whereas Australian nerds are nerds all week long.

Re:Two things.

[MrKaos]

And you're a "jjj" douchewad fanboy of the worst fucking kind. Where does the OP/GP criticize the station. He's merely stating that he hasn't heard of any of these songs and artists. Probably because he's old and treasures his ZZ Top collection or some shit like that.

TV Dinners, If only I could flag her down, slip inside my sleeping bag, you mean that shit. I like the old shit deep purple led zepplin, the saints, hunters, radiators - they played the other night. Its not about old vs new, it's good vs crap (which jjj play a fair share of crap), git it? boy

Yeesh. Kids today.

don't make me spank you, get off my lawn

Re:Two things.

[Anonymous Coward]

Slashdot is still very US centric. While there may be a benefit to foreign language versions*, With the global nature of technology, I don't think it is beneficial to segregate it by country.

* There is actually a Japanese version of Slashdot that has been around for a long time.

Re:Two things.

[Anonymous Coward]

Not being familiar with the music is one thing, but if you have never even heard of Kanye West then you're not paying any attention to music whatsoever.

You should check out The Black Keys. Not only are they on this list so you could feel a little more in touch, they make music that could have come from the 70s.

Re:Two things.

[MightyYar]

My wife plays that song. I find the lyrics to be campy humor. Not bad, in the same way that an R-rated Weird Al song would not be "bad". For reference:

Hey, Macklemore! Can we go thrift shopping?

What, what, what, what... [x7]

Bada, badada, badada, bada... [x9]

[Hook:]
I'm gonna pop some tags
Only got twenty dollars in my pocket
I - I - I'm hunting, looking for a come-up
This is fucking awesome

[Verse 1:]
Nah, Walk up to the club like, "What up, I got a big cock!"
I'm so pumped about some shit from the thrift shop
Ice on the fringe, it's so damn frosty
That people like, "Damn! That's a cold ass honkey."
Rollin' in, hella deep, headin' to the mezzanine,
Dressed in all pink, 'cept my gator shoes, those are green
Draped in a leopard mink, girls standin' next to me
Probably shoulda washed this, smells like R. Kelly's sheets
(Piiisssssss)
But shit, it was ninety-nine cents! (Bag it)
Coppin' it, washin' it, 'bout to go and get some compliments
Passin' up on those moccasins someone else's been walkin' in
But me and grungy fuckin it man
I am stuntin' and flossin' and
Savin' my money and I'm hella happy that's a bargain, bitch
I'm a take your grandpa's style, I'm a take your grandpa's style,
No for real - ask your grandpa - can I have his hand-me-downs? (Thank you)
Velour jumpsuit and some house slippers
Dookie brown leather jacket that I found diggin'
They had a broken keyboard, I bought a broken keyboard
I bought a skeet blanket, then I bought a kneeboard
Hello, hello, my ace man, my Mello
John Wayne ain't got nothing on my fringe game, hell no
I could take some Pro Wings, make them cool, sell those
The sneaker heads would be like "Aw, he got the Velcros"

[Hook x2]

[Verse 2:]
What you know about rockin' a wolf on your noggin?
What you knowin' about wearin' a fur fox skin?
I'm digging, I'm digging, I'm searching right through that luggage
One man's trash, that's another man's come-up
Thank your granddad for donating that plaid button-up shirt
'Cause right now I'm up in her stunting
I'm at the Goodwill, you can find me in the (Uptons)
I'm not, I'm not sick of searchin' in that section (Uptons)
Your grammy, your aunty, your momma, your mammy
I'll take those flannel zebra jammies, second-hand, I rock that motherfucker
The built-in onesie with the socks on that motherfucker
I hit the party and they stop in that motherfucker
They be like, "Oh, that Gucci - that's hella tight."
I'm like, "Yo - that's fifty dollars for a T-shirt."
Limited edition, let's do some simple addition
Fifty dollars for a T-shirt - that's just some ignorant bitch (shit)
I call that getting swindled and pimped (shit)
I call that getting tricked by a business
That shirt's hella dough
And having the same one as six other people in this club is a hella don't
Peep game, come take a look through my telescope
Trying to get girls from a brand? Man you hella won't
Man you hella won't

(Goodwill... poppin' tags... yeah!)

[Hook]

[Bridge: x2]
I wear your granddad's clothes
I look incredible
I'm in this big ass coat
From that thrift shop down the road

[Hook]

Is that your grandma's coat?

Re:Two things.

[deek]

The OP makes a good point? I'm not so sure of that.

In the last month, there have been 11 stories tagged with the "Australia" label. Second from the top, the stories have been about: the Pirate Party being registered, monitoring body temperature of firefighters, potential cure for aids discovered, major telescope threatened by bushfire, spy agency seeking permission to hack third-party computers, R18+ classification for video games, insulin's structure being cracked, orbital pictures of bushfires, drones used for bushfire forecasting, and the world's oldest fossils found. Most, if not all, are quite valid news for nerds stories.

There have been 30 stories specifically tagged as "usa", in that same time period. Granted, some stories are a little bizarrely tagged as "usa". Not sure why a story about unemployed chinese graduates is labelled such. Regardless, it's easy to see that Slashdot has a much larger USA bias.

And you know what, that's fine. It's good to read about things happening in the USA, just as much as it is for Americans to read about what's happening in the rest of the world. Including Australia. Stop acting insular. Enjoy learning anything and everything about the world around you. This is what, to me, truly defines being a nerd.

Re:Two things.

[Anonymous Coward]

Well I have heard of #32, 34 and 40 in that list... nothing higher than that. (For comparison, I have heard of 17 of the bands in the current local top 20). But I see their top entry made it to #24 in the charts some months ago. Whoopee. Did better in the colonies apparently... (and Norway for some reason) maybe cos the name (here they are called "charity shops" and are associated with specific charities) cos the lyrics are interesting, hook memorable and the song is not too bad. Maybe a cover version will do better. As for triple J, they got renamed to Union J and I saw them live a few weeks ago :-) and when I go clubbing I seem to hear the winner of last years Eurovision and Gangnam style, not that I stick around in the rap room.

Re:Two things.

[MrKaos]

Not being familiar with the music is one thing, but if you have never even heard of Kanye West then you're not paying any attention to music whatsoever.

You should check out The Black Keys. Not only are they on this list so you could feel a little more in touch, they make music that could have come from the 70s.

hahah - that's great, I like em both actually. I've never been "in touch" and neither are you because your posting to me on slashdot - which crack me up more because you're an AC and probably moderating.

no, I only know what I like. I lost count of how many concerts I'd been to at 50 when I was in my late teens and I still see heaps of bands with all the other people that don't know what "in touch" means. Them crooked vulture, Mars volta, You am I, Bluejuice, Sneaky sound system, dizzy rascal. Thanks for trying though got any other suggestions?

Re:Two things.

[tehcyder]

Having a Top 100 Australian songs of the year is a bit like having a Top 100 Taliban Feminists Of The Year.

Re:Two things.

[tehcyder]

if you have never even heard of Kanye West then you're not paying any attention to music whatsoever.

Or, perhaps, he is only paying attention to good music. Life's too short to follow every faddy, financially successful attention whore.

Re:Two things.

[Anonymous Coward]

... dizzy rascal. Thanks for trying though got any other suggestions?

Yeah, stop being such a dick.

WOW

[Anonymous Coward]

So a list produced by what the public thinks can be predicted by analyzing what people think.

That is totally amazing.

I never heard of this poll

[rossdee]

But a a few months ago there were ads asking me to vote for
"One Man, One Woman"
sp I guess there must have been a "Favorite song by ABBA" poll on at that time.
I still preferred Fernando

Oh Very Good

[Anonymous Coward]

Now, we apply the algorithm to Stocks ! :D

And we make a 'Killing' walking away a Buttzillion richer ! :)

Hardly "spoils"

[flimflammer]

You have to scroll down the length of an encyclopedia just to get to the various lists of entries all the while the site is telling you that you probably shouldn't ruin it for yourself. It's not like the guys who screamed "Dumbledore's dead!" at midnight book releases.

Re:Hardly "spoils"

[bruce_the_loon]

Dumbledore's dead. Damn you, I was just getting ready to start reading book three.

Re:Hardly "spoils"

[tehcyder]

Dumbledore's dead. Damn you, I was just getting ready to start reading book three.

*FALSE SPOILER ALERT*

Just wait til you get the last book and it turns out the whole series has been a dream in the head of a gay Asperger's kid in Ohio.

Will be gamed ....

[i-reek]

next year. Watch the fake "intended votes" flood in.

That is, if Triple J don't take an entirely different route ....

Duhh

[Anonymous Coward]

This is how they pick the winners in the first place.

joke???

[ferret4]

Are you sick? It isn't a joke, it actually happened - someones baby was taken and killed by a native dog. Hardy-fucking-har. Honestly, the freaks you meet on the Internet :-(

Re:joke???

[MrKaos]

Are you sick? It isn't a joke, it actually happened - someones baby was taken and killed by a native dog. Hardy-fucking-har. Honestly, the freaks you meet on the Internet :-(

A ferret4 ate my baby.

Re:joke???

[sammyF70]

relevant :Lullaby by Tim Minchin, fastforwarded to the correct position. And the dude IS australian.

Re:joke???

[Rakhar]

Yes, how tasteless... Now if you don't mind, I have a game to play. http://www.koboldsatemybaby.com/

Re:joke???

[rubycodez]

in USA used as comedic phrase in espisodes in both the Simpson's and Seinfeld. that's the only references most US people will know

Re:joke???

[Pope]

A drop bear stole my ute!

for those who didn't RTFA or listen to Triple J

[ferret4]

It's a song contest where the public (anyone in the world) can vote for any song (released anywhere in the world) so long as that song was first released in the 12 months prior to start of voting. The station does not nominate songs or pick winners, they simply count votes. The metric is that the Triple J Hottest 100 competition consistently receives the largest number of people voting for a competition of this kind anywhere in the world.

Comparison chart with commentary

[diodegod]

For a slightly more detailed comparison of Warmest 100 vs. Hottest 100, here's a chart a mate did which includes some commentary:

http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/WarmesttoHottest1002012/Dashboard

Re:Wait til Google gets started on their graph sea

[MrKaos]

You'll be able to predict your children's future. And safely give up the sociopaths for adoption.

So you're saying you believe the children are our future let them lead and let them show the way show them all the beauty they possess inside?

Glad he used digital analysis

[Anonymous Coward]

Its a good thing that he compiled lists. I've never heard of groups like Painful Wedgie and Rotting Orange. In fact, I've only heard of about 1 or 2 groups on the list, and they aren't well known (apparently anywhere but Australia). I'd never heard of Nails-On-Chalkboard or Passing Gravel either (I think they were close to the top of the list).

Re:Glad he used digital analysis

[mister2au]

WTF? What list are you reading?

Re:Wait til Google gets started on their graph sea

[eksith]

Yes.

Yes I am.

He didn't spoil anything

[thegarbz]

His website contained spoilers. It warned you every 10 songs that you were going to spoil the hottest 100. Between number 11 and 10 it warned you several times, 3 full vertical screen heights of warnings are given.

The only people who spoiled the worlds biggest song vote are those who read the results, oh and the shithouse media who ran what number one was going to be in the first line of an article.

The power of data mining

[Anonymous Coward]

Just imagine what the government could do with two dozen analysts like that and access to every social stream in the Internet. Predict the outcome of elections? Predict the opposition to some of its controversial proposals? Track down trouble makers? Disband protests even before they happen? Possibilities are endless...

Re:Wait til Google gets started on their graph sea

[MrKaos]

Yes.

Yes I am.

that's a beautiful thing to share, it's the greatest love of all

World's biggest song contest ?

[Peachy]

Surely can't beat the Eurovision in terms of biggest song contest ?

Re:World's biggest song contest ?

[mister2au]

Not a song contest which is a vote on a small number of contestants ... It is a music poll based on music released on the last 12 months.

Eurovision and every TV talent contest would have more votes - but that is not what is being discussed.

I am the author of the ITnews article.

[justin.warren]

So yeah. Hi.

I wrote some more detailed commentary on my blog, if you want more details than would fit in a short news article.

http://www.eigenmagic.com/2013/01/24/will-the-warmest-100-prove-a-scorcher/ and http://www.eigenmagic.com/2013/01/26/warmest-100-updates/

It's nearly midnight here, but if I get a chance in the morning, I'll post up some more info including the code I used to replicate the Warmest 100's methods, and some scatterplots showing how the accuracy of the predictions got better the closer things got to number one, similar to the tableau link from diodegod.

Statistics is the new black. :)

bigger than Eurovision song contest?

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't think so.

Terrible

[Anonymous Coward]

These songs all fucking suck.

One of my favourite stations

[Kenshin]

I'm a Canadian and I listen to Triple J *because* it isn't exactly mainstream. I've been listening for about 10 years, and it's really coloured my musical tastes.

Oddly enough, they play Canadian artists who don't even get airplay in Canada. (Commercial radio here is garbage.)

Data can be ruinous

[Anonymous Coward]

Lovely visuals of data can rapidly drive consensus. I love that part, and it is what I strive for.

However, that consensus can lead to the destruction of companies... rapidly. It has been suggested that I have wrecked two startups with pretty visuals and live dashboards.

Sorry?

Mate has been doing this quietly for years

[trawg]

... because you can bet on this vote. He has won tens of thousands of dollars, beating the bookies every year for the last few years. He thought this whole thing was pretty funny but hopes it doesn't affect his chances next year.

The reason its the current 12 months

[Anonymous Coward]

The hottest 100 was original unbounded by time but they had to change the rules because in the olden days all the Goth's would spend all their pocket money on calling in (before the intarweb) and voting for "Love Will Tear Us Apart" by Joy Division. It won the contest for years.