Slashdot Mirror


3D Maps Reveal a Lead-Laced Ocean

sciencehabit writes "About 1000 meters down in a remote part of the Atlantic Ocean sits an unusual legacy of humanity's love affair with the automobile. It's a huge mass of seawater infused with traces of the toxic metal lead, a pollutant once widely emitted by cars burning leaded gasoline. Decades ago, the United States and Europe banned leaded gas and many other uses of the metal, but the pollutant's fingerprint lingers on—as shown by remarkably detailed new 3-D maps released this week. The 3D maps and animations are the early results of an unprecedented $300 million international collaboration to document the presence of trace metals and other chemicals in the world's oceans. The substances, which often occur in minute quantities, can provide important clues to understanding the ocean's past—such as how seawater masses have moved around over centuries—and its future, such as how climate change might shift key biochemical processes."

266 comments

  1. Avgas by Nerrd · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Nearly the entire worldwide fleet of piston powered aircraft still burn leaded gas.

    1. Re:Avgas by Ralph+Wiggam · · Score: 1

      The EPA is expected to start the phase-out of leaded AVGAS as soon as next year.

    2. Re:Avgas by Ken_g6 · · Score: 1

      Is it really leaded gas, or just gas with a lead substitute?

      --
      (T>t && O(n)--) == sqrt(666)
    3. Re:Avgas by Warphammer · · Score: 1

      100LL is using real lead, at least for now. It's a matter of a lot of testing over many different engine types to make sure alternatives work properly.

    4. Re:Avgas by Nerrd · · Score: 2

      Thats a seriously optimistic read on the situation. https://www.faa.gov/about/init...

    5. Re:Avgas by Nerrd · · Score: 1

      It is tetraethyl lead - just like cars used.

    6. Re:Avgas by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      That's true but the amount of leaded gas burned by piston powered aircraft it pretty minimal. Old lead paint on walls is a far bigger problem.

    7. Re:Avgas by Mister+Liberty · · Score: 1

      Oddly that coincides with the phase-out of human life.

    8. Re: Avgas by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      A lot of cars still use leaded gas! South America and elsewhere... Aviation is a huge polution problem... I came to this realization when planes where grounded on sept 11th 2001, after about 24 to 48 hours the air was much cleaner smelling! It's in humanities DNA to self Darwinize... No point in fighting it! I'd give our species less than two centuries of survival at best and quite possibly far less. The ostrich syndrome of those that believe humans are too small to affect the environment are already dwindling in numbers.

    9. Re:Avgas by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      That is a very tiny amount compared to what autos produced.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    10. Re:Avgas by hax4bux · · Score: 1

      So what? Look up, what do you see? Empty sky. Look down, what do you see? Cars.

      The scale is not even close.

    11. Re:Avgas by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I saw one helicopter, R22. It's burning leaded gas at rate of around 10 GPH. Well, that fact only cost me $70,000 to learn.... Also, got to put a lot of lead into the air around Los Angeles. But the chicks still dig it when you take out the license even if I can't pass medical hopefully only temporally.

    12. Re: Avgas by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Where do you live? Unless, it's near a GA airport because only piston ACs use leaded gas which is a small percentage of total fuel burned in aviation. Most of the fuel is a specific type of kerosene or jet fuel. This contains no metals as the metals would build up inside the turbine causing a large assortment of problems. What I think you noticed wasn't the grounding of Air traffic, but the over all lowering of most polution sources especially cars. At my school at the time many students took several weeks off. Pretty sure many people did go back to work for weeks, etc.

    13. Re:Avgas by hax4bux · · Score: 1

      My Turbo Arrow needs 13 GPH of sweet leaded fuel. This does not change my point. I look down, many cars. I look around, not so many airplanes. The scale is not even close between cars and aircraft.

      I can't believe most people even know what a R22 is, even around KTOA.

    14. Re: Avgas by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What? Are you saying it's not America's fault? Come on, it's ALWAYS America's fault.

    15. Re:Avgas by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Worldwide avgas releases about 2500 metric tons of lead a year. If you evenly mixed this with the whole volume of the ocean, the change in lead content is not significant. If this ended up in 1% of the ocean's volume due to imperfect mixing, that would create a significant change after a couple years. So it does come down to how well such stuff mixes and where it goes. It isn't much if you can managed to spread it out evenly, but can be enough of a problem if there are mechanisms that concentrate it or prevent it from spreading out.

    16. Re:Avgas by deadweight · · Score: 1

      Don't get too worried. Annual USA avgas consumption is 0.14% of car gas consumption. Of course the government, by mandating alcohol in gas, removed the ability of about 80% of the fleet to run on nice lead free car gas. Now I use toxic TEL in my gas AND use toxic TCP to keep the engine from getting lead fouled. Good going EPA - NOT!

    17. Re:Avgas by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It seems easy enough for me to get alcohol free and lead free avgas, but a little more expensive than automobile fuel. I would use the latter if I could, but the issue is not alcohol, but vapor lock.

    18. Re: Avgas by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Aviation is a huge polution problem... I came to this realization when planes where grounded on sept 11th 2001, after about 24 to 48 hours the air was much cleaner smelling!

      That was all in your head. Unless you live at an airport, the air is largely unaffected by the air traffic.

    19. Re:Avgas by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Like asbestos, lead paint is a bigger problem when you are trying to fix it, than when you just ignore it. Unless you have children eating paint chips, lead paint has no link to health problems that I've ever seen. Just keep the paint on the walls, and its safer than trying to clean it off.

    20. Re:Avgas by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Nothing lasts forever and sooner or later it needs to be cleaned up.

    21. Re:Avgas by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Unless it'd demolished. Tearing down a house and putting it all in the dump doesn't cause any issue over either asbestos or lead. After all, you indicate that it can't last forever.

  2. Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    ...is because of human activity.

    Without some sort of baseline of ocean lead levels before the industrial age, it's difficult to assert that the levels observed are caused by humanity in any specific percentage.

    Where's the proxy for historic ocean lead levels pre-1850?

    1. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      ...is because of human activity.

      Without some sort of baseline of ocean lead levels before the industrial age, it's difficult to assert that the levels observed are caused by humanity in any specific percentage.

      Where's the proxy for historic ocean lead levels pre-1850?

      Exactly what I was thinking. Zero point in doing research on how the ocean has acted in the past naturally when we humans keep fucking it up with toxic sludge.

    2. Re:Not everything observed... by ackthpt · · Score: 1

      ...is because of human activity.

      Without some sort of baseline of ocean lead levels before the industrial age, it's difficult to assert that the levels observed are caused by humanity in any specific percentage.

      Where's the proxy for historic ocean lead levels pre-1850?

      Who else was adding tetraethyllead to their fuel supply, alien invaders?

      Seeing concentrations which dilute along known currents isn't very iffy stuff, even a kid dripping oil in a stream of water can witness this effect.

      I wonder how much of that lead comes back in fish - the 'brain' food.

      Next week news - Zombies in peril, main food source contaminated by lead. Zombie health institute issues warnings, zombies lurch in protest.

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    3. Re:Not everything observed... by PraiseBob · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If you read the article, you might see this paragraph: "Still, the maps show there are places where lead contamination is a continuing problem. Off the southern tip of Africa, surface waters with relatively high traces of lead are flowing into the South Atlantic from the Indian Ocean. That’s probably due to the continuing use of leaded gasoline in parts of Africa and Asia"

      There appears to be a direct correlation... Guess it wasn't so difficult after all?

    4. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I bet that absolutely no professional scientists who have put years of fulltime work into researching this topic have ever thought of that.

    5. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      If only professional scientists were as dumb as your strawman. http://eaps-www.mit.edu/paoc/research/trace-metals-group-ed-boyles-lab

      "Almost all of the lead in the ocean derives from human emissions from high temperature industrial activities (smelting, coal combustion, incineration, etc.) and leaded gasoline utilization. Most of this lead was emitted in the past 100 years with peak U.S. emissions in the 1970's.

      We can estimate Pb for the preceding two centuries using Pb in annually-banded corals from Bermuda. The emitted 206/207, 208/207 and 206/204 Pb isotope ratios have evolved during the past 120 years so that it is sometimes possible to "date" the Pb in an environmental sample by establishing a unique combination of isotope ratios. Varved sediment cores from Rhode Island and British Columbia show the regional differences in Pb emissions."

    6. Re:Not everything observed... by msauve · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Uh, the article said "lead," not "tetraethyllead" [sic].

      Guess what? That lead came from the earth - humans dug it up. It's not like alchemy is real.

      Are sub-sea geothermal vents spewing lead in some form? Are there exposed veins of lead on the ocean floor? Is it from fishing weights or ballasts of sunken ships?

      If you can't answer all those questions and other similar, your comment is less than worthless.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    7. Re:Not everything observed... by ThatAblaze · · Score: 1

      *ring ring*

      Hello? Mr D? Are you there?

      Ohh.. that's right.. it became a problem.

      And you died. Oops.

    8. Re:Not everything observed... by MightyMartian · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Thank goodness we have all these armchair experts to correct those worthless braindead scientists. My goodness, between the experts on hydrology, climatology, physics, biology and all those other disciplines who always seem so quick to poke holes in theories without RTFAing or the papers the articles are based on, why Slashdot is a regular renaissance man's hangout.

      Clearly we have no need of academia at all. We can shut down the universities and the research facilities, because here on Slashdot we have geniuses of unfathomable brilliance.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    9. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'd have more faith in that if there was a larger network of observations. 787 sites to cover the entire atlantic ocean seems a bit thin.

      Correlation isn't causation, of course :)

    10. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Well, if the "science is settled", we don't need any more research, right? :)

      But seriously, a network with only 787 observation sites? Isn't that a bit thin for the entire atlantic ocean?

    11. Re:Not everything observed... by JazzHarper · · Score: 2

      Specifically, Algeria, Iraq, Yemen and Myanmar are known to still sell gasoline containing TEL at the pump.

    12. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Assuming we've properly modeled the isotope ratios, this is great - now where's the graph of the data? Perhaps we have more than three coring sites besides Bermuda, Rhode Island and British Columbia?

      Do we have it for the 787 study sites in the article mentioned?

      Seems like a lot of holes in that cheese :)

    13. Re:Not everything observed... by icebike · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I was wondering why it only appears in the known Ocean Currents.

      Is this a case of looking for your lost keys under the streetlamp because its easier to see there?
      Do they not find any evidence in areas away from the currents?

      Maybe they didn't take random bottom readings anywhere else. Or maybe it settled out everywhere else but
      within the currents. Oh, that's it. Its Settled Science.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    14. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Without some sort of baseline of ocean lead levels before the industrial age

      Especially since the Roman Empire caused massive amounts of lead-based pollution long before the Industrial Age.

    15. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I bet that absolutely no professional scientists who have put years of fulltime work into researching this topic have ever thought of that.

      Well then instead of gambling, go read the paper. If it's not mentioned, it wasn't accounted for, and deserves to be pointed out.

    16. Re:Not everything observed... by StefanJ · · Score: 1

      Based on these comments, Slashdotters are also experts on moving goal posts.

    17. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Deep water away from various currents mix and exchange very slowly with surface water, and can take 100-1000+ years to mix.

    18. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      plus the battery fires....

    19. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Assuming we've properly modeled the isotope ratios

      Modeled? The isotopic ratios in man made lead is not some obscure model based on measurements in a couple of esoteric papers. The ratio of isotopes in lead has direct consequences for its use in several fields, including nuclear engineering and precision instrumentation. Understanding and using this is the reason ancient Roman lead can be worth a lot of money to manufacturers of various kinds of radiation detectors..

    20. Re:Not everything observed... by ackthpt · · Score: 4, Informative

      Uh, the article said "lead," not "tetraethyllead" [sic].

      Guess what? That lead came from the earth - humans dug it up. It's not like alchemy is real.

      Are sub-sea geothermal vents spewing lead in some form? Are there exposed veins of lead on the ocean floor? Is it from fishing weights or ballasts of sunken ships?

      If you can't answer all those questions and other similar, your comment is less than worthless.

      Well it's obvious you didn't read it, particularly the bit about a concentration diluting along known currents. Guess those were some big words and you might have had trouble with them.

      Tetraethyllead was added to gasoline as a catalyst. Once the fuel was burned the catalyst exited into the atmosphere (are you keeping up?) where it could land anywhere or go into solution where rain fell, taking it through drains, watersheds, down rivers and into the ocean. Spotting it in the water column is pretty easy. Spotting it in your water and food, well, that's a less heterogeneous environment. But with all the fuel burned with that additive, it's somewhere, it doesn't go POOF and magically disapper (out of sight, out of mind.) Got that?

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    21. Re:Not everything observed... by ackthpt · · Score: 2

      *ring ring*

      Hello? Mr D? Are you there?

      Ohh.. that's right.. it became a problem.

      And you died. Oops.

      Lead in food leads to neurological disorders, retarding intelligence, impairing motor functions, etc.

      Now, I'm not saying there's evidence of that in any responses here ...

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    22. Re:Not everything observed... by ackthpt · · Score: 1

      What I do know of marine research comes from a friend who worked a couple years at Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) They'd go out to see for weeks at a time, visiting various sensors to gather data. Some of this data comes from deep in the water column. Aggregating from stations, over several years can paint a pretty clear picture. 700+ stations is pretty significant. A lot more telling than a statement like "Gee, I don't think that's very much" - based upon feck all knowledge of the science, equipment, procedures and knowledge.

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    23. Re:Not everything observed... by pspahn · · Score: 1

      I would assume it also ends up concentrating at higher levels as you work up the food chain, just like mercury and things like ciguatoxins.

      So I guess the take-away here is that we shouldn't cannibalize anyone that is a fish eater in South Africa.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    24. Re:Not everything observed... by LWATCDR · · Score: 2

      And you could still buy 4 star leaded fuel in the UK in 2011. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...
      The US went lead free decades ago, Europe a few years ago.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    25. Re:Not everything observed... by ThatAblaze · · Score: 1

      Lead in food leads to neurological disorders, retarding intelligence, impairing motor functions, etc.

      I refuse to let the validity of your facts detract from the validity of my humor.

    26. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm talking about modeling the movement of the isotopes. The assumption is that isotope ratios change over time due to specific causes - but that isn't always clear. For example:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/200...

      "But if you examine the above equation, you will see that the C13 index that is reported can go down not only from decreasing C13 content, but also from an increasing C12 content (the other 98.9% of the CO2)."

      "BOTTOM LINE: If the C13/C12 relationship during NATURAL inter-annual variability is the same as that found for the trends, how can people claim that the trend signal is MANMADE??"

      While certainly our analysis of isotopes in the lab is pretty fool proof, our assumptions as to where and which isotopes come from and end up in the real world is based on some assumption that might not be justified.

    27. Re:Not everything observed... by Solandri · · Score: 4, Informative

      While I don't disagree with the notion that leaded gasoline is a major contributor to lead in the environment, I was a little curious how much naturally-occuring lead there is.

      Uranium has a 4.5 billion year half-life, and the end-product of its decay chain is lead. Since the Earth is about 4.5 billion years old, you should expect to find about equal amounts of uranium and lead in the environment overall (I'm not an expert on how minute quantities of these elements act in seawater). The trace uranium in seawater is about 3.33 parts per billion.

      According to TFA (which didn't give exact numbers), "the lead concentrations are roughly equivalent to what youâ(TM)d get if you dissolved a small spoonful of frozen orange juice in 200 Olympic-sized swimming pools". An Olympic-sized swimming pool is about 2.5 million liters. According to Google, 1 teaspoon in 2.5 million liters is about 2 parts per billion.

      So the amounts of lead they're detecting are about 0.01 parts per billion, or two orders of magnitude less than the amount of naturally-ocurring uranium in seawater. The charts linked in TFA bear this out. Clicking through random charts, lead concentrations are around 25 pmol/kg, while uranium concentrations are around 3 nmol/kg (3000 pmol/kg).

      So (1) for whatever reason uranium dissolves in seawater much more readily than lead, and (2) the amounts of lead they're detecting are minuscule even by "trace elements" standards.

    28. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, if the "science is settled", we don't need any more research, right? :)

      But seriously, a network with only 787 observation sites? Isn't that a bit thin for the entire atlantic ocean?

      Hey, $300 million only goes so far these days. Be happy they managed to get 787 sites..

    29. Re:Not everything observed... by Vintermann · · Score: 1

      I hope this is satire to mock climate deniers.

      --
      xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.
    30. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why would you give credibility to some superfluous wrong interpretation by a non-expert and not to the tons of data and studies made by people who actually knew what they were doing?

    31. Re:Not everything observed... by expatriot · · Score: 1

      Why would you give credibility to some superfluous wrong interpretation by a non-expert and not to the tons of data and studies made by people who actually knew what they were doing?

      Because he has some sort of agenda (probably a religious one)

    32. Re:Not everything observed... by fridaynightsmoke · · Score: 2

      And you could still buy 4 star leaded fuel in the UK in 2011. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new... The US went lead free decades ago, Europe a few years ago.

      How did you come up with that when the article states it was banned in the UK in 1998?

      --
      This is a substitute for a clever sig that fits within the maximum number of characters.
    33. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One might also think that surveying 800-1,000 people in a population of 300,000,000 seems a bit thin. But with a representative sample it is good enough for most purposes. It is certainly possible that the same is going on here.

    34. Re:Not everything observed... by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      Because I miss read it. I knew that the UK had leaded long after the US made it illegal and Did a search to find when they stopped selling it.
      The EU banned it a decade an a half ago the US several decades ago is the correct statement. My bad.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    35. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Population sampling may be good if your sample is truly random, but there's little reason to believe from their 3d map that they did anything of the sort.

      Hell, for a sensor network of 300,000,000 on the ocean, you'd still be taking only a representative sample :) There's a *lot* of cubic volume there :)

    36. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      No, it's to mock climate nazis :)

    37. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Appeal to authority?

      Isn't that like Catholics claiming an infallible pope?

      If you're going to argue against the interpretation, argue against the interpretation, don't just wave your hands and say that your interpretation is magically correct because it is backed up by nameless authorities with an unstated argument.

      Cite your work :)

    38. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0

      Ironic, that in the 21st century skepticism is considered a religious position :)

      The freethinkers of prior centuries would be bemused :)

    39. Re:Not everything observed... by danbert8 · · Score: 1

      Leaded fuel can still be sold for use in aircraft and race cars in the US.

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
    40. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1
      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    41. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Too bad you come across like a contrarian dickhead with snarky fucking smilies then yeah?

    42. Re:Not everything observed... by deadweight · · Score: 1

      Lead ballast does not disolve in water. I would be pretty unhappy if it did, my boat would lose stability every year!

    43. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry, not keeping up. You're using big words.

      Can you please define the following?:

      * catalyst
      * watersheds
      * heterogeneous
      * it
      * the

      Thanks.

    44. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I was wondering why it only appears in the known Ocean Currents.

      Cuz the unknown currents haven't been discovered yet, duh?

    45. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's because academia and the majority of these scientists have been proven to have an agenda, rather than just doing science. You have to double-check everything they say because it's usually bullshit driven by politics or money.

    46. Re:Not everything observed... by expatriot · · Score: 1

      I agree with rational wiki and others:

      "While Spencer has become an ID PRATT machine, he hasn't contributed any new cards to the creationists' deck. He mostly just parrots the greatest hits like "no transitional fossils" and "microevolution not macroevolution." He also flogs the "secular religion" trope even harder when it comes to evolution than he does for global warming."

      Evolution denier is even looper than doubting isotope dating. Yep, religious agenda. From his comments on "The Evolution Crisis":

      "To examine the relationship between science and the Bible, a good place to start is with the origin of the universe. Science presents us with the laws of thermodynamics, the first of which states that the total amount of matter and energy in existence is constant. If this were the only natural law to be satisfied, it would be possible to believe that the universe has existed forever. Indeed, that was the prevailing view back in Darwin's day. However, the second law of thermodynamics states the overall amount of useable energy is constantly decreasing – it is being degraded into a less useful form. In other words, the universe is dying. If the universe were eternal it would by now have experienced what astronomers call a 'heat death' – a state of total equilibrium in which entropy would be infinite. This, among other factors, has led a majority of astronomers to agree that the universe had a beginning. Several thousand years of scientific endeavour has brought the majority of scientists in line with the first verse of the Bible which states, "In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth." Well, the first three words of the verse anyway! If there is no God, who or what caused the universe to begin? There really are only two basic options – it created itself out of nothing or it was created by something greater than itself! If everything that begins to exist has a cause, and the universe began to exist, the universe must have had a cause."

      "A second issue is the origin of life. There is a vast gulf between the most complex non-living compound such as a crystal and the simplest form of life such as a bacterium. The gap is much larger than the gap between a bacterium and a human being. Science, despite expending enormous amounts of time, is actually further away from an explanation as to how non-living chemicals can accidentally and spontaneously come alive than it has ever been. All the evidence on hand, both in nature and in the laboratory, points to the fact that life only ever comes from life. The Bible credits the origin of life to the power and design of a 'living' creator God."

    47. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Evolution has a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement.

      Catastrophic global warming does not.

      Neither does creationism.

      The fact that Spencer manages to hold two contradictory ideas in his mind, one rational, one irrational, is no more surprising than otherwise rational atheists believing in the Cult of Global Warming.

    48. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Which one of those search results do you believe has the answer?

      Let's look at the top three:

      1) ice:
      Trace metal suites in Antarctic pre-industrial ice are consistent with emissions from quiescent degassing of volcanoes worldwide

      2) 20th century measurements (aka, after the industrial age)
      Lead in corals: reconstruction of historical industrial fluxes to the surface ocean

      3) a model, not data
      Global 3-D land-ocean-atmosphere model for mercury: Present-day versus preindustrial cycles and anthropogenic enrichment factors for deposition

      I know it's not as sexy as paleo CO2 levels, but surely there has to be some paper defending proxies to guess at ocean Pb content before we actually observed it, right?

    49. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Nope, that was intentional :)

      So was that :)

    50. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Science:

      http://iopscience.iop.org/1755...

      Pay close attention to the caveats about Pb and paleo measurements of it.

    51. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Hi, kudos for being interested, and not just throwing bombs.

      The article you linked isn't relevant to your question, since we're interested in the question on whether gasoline lead is being measured in the ocean. As such, we only need to look at a time course for Pb in the ocean over the time period in question. (i.e., the age of leaded gasoline.) Your linked paper is concerned with much larger time scales, on the order of 10k years.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    52. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm always interested in people who give actual cites :)

      That being said, my concern is this - without a *pre industrial baseline* it's difficult to make sure you haven't made the wrong assumptions about your isotope sourcing/sinking logic. Given Pb is reactive (to the tune of "living" 50-200 years), it makes not only direct measurement iffy, but with the 10k year resolution of proxies, you're left with a lot of holes. Even your first cite only shows what, 9 sample areas? Given that we *know* Pb isn't well mixed, that seems like an awfully tiny resolution to base firm conclusions on.

      At the very least, it would've been nice to see some sort of uncertainty bars on the proxy measurements - that kind of stuff is just basic, even if it detracts from the illusion of certainty. I'm especially concerned in Fig 4, where they assume a *constant* background Pb level - that makes the maths simpler, but it's sloppy.

      I know it's frustrating to recreate truth with proxies - we need to accept that though, and not only do our best, but be very careful about pointing out the sources of possible error or misdirection.

    53. Re:Not everything observed... by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      The rise in crime in the US, peaking in the '80s and dropping in the '90s correlated better with lead in fuel than any other measure measured. Maybe some of the violence in Africa and other places is related to the use of TEL in the gasoline?

    54. Re:Not everything observed... by AK+Marc · · Score: 2

      You look in the obvious places first. No point looking in the unusual places if you aren't even sure it should be there. If their hypothesis was right, they should find it in predictable places in the highest levels, so look there first.

      The fact that they confirmed their hypothesis doesn't prove they had confirmation bias.

    55. Re:Not everything observed... by icebike · · Score: 1

      Wait, why is that the most predictable place?

      Atmospheric lead gets rained out over the whole ocean, no?

      The story was not clear that they even checked anywhere else, and absent that, all they can say is
      this is what we found here, but it could be a lot worse elsewhere.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    56. Re:Not everything observed... by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Atmospheric lead does not get rained out over the whole ocean evenly. It rains out over the polluted areas evenly enough, but that rain is concentrated when it falls over land. And that's consistent with their findings of runoff, distributing lead unevenly.

    57. Re:Not everything observed... by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      Proven by who? The Koch Brothers? Exxon mobil?

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    58. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The great part about statistics, is if you know what you doing, it is capable of informing you of how significant a result is and if you have enough observations under different conditions (and I'm not talking about something as crude as p values). So then you don't need to have "maybe this isn't enough" arguments, and can be quantitative about it. But most people around here want to just make trite statements about statistics without actual knowledge of it.

    59. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 2

      Evolution has a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement.

      Catastrophic global warming does not.

      This is absurd. If we show that climate sensitivity is low, or that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas, or that humans didn't put it there, that that there are negative feedbacks -- any of those lines of evidence will falsify AGW, and therefore CAGW as well.

      What *precisely* is catastrophic is problematic because people have different value systems. Nonetheless, no warming would not be CAGW, and 10C warming would make many places unlivable -- as in animals would be slowly cooked. So it is more nuanced in pointing out possible or likely changes at certain levels of warming.

      I'm sure you think you know more about this than me, but all I see is motivated reasoning clothed in "science"... I'm sure you'll weasel out some alternative claim so that you can keep preaching your religion.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    60. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      The article in question didn't seem to include any of that significance or skill testing at all though.

      That kind of thing should probably be mandatory for papers which are basing their discussion on particular applications (and possible misapplications) of statistics.

    61. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      This is absurd. If we show that climate sensitivity is low, or that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas, or that humans didn't put it there, that that there are negative feedbacks -- any of those lines of evidence will falsify AGW, and therefore CAGW as well.

      Here's the problem - lacking any sort of specificity as to what "low climate sensitivity" is, or the specific nature and magnitude of both negative and positive natural feedbacks, you setup a "heads I win, tails you lose" proposition.

      Here, a few things for you to think about:

      1) how has IPCC's estimate of climate sensitivity changed over the years?
      2) what negative feedbacks have been excluded from existence?

      You do bring up an interesting point on motivated reasoning - say for example, we were heading into a little ice age, and we believed that the only way to stop it was to force people to increase the burning of natural petroleum products...BAGW (beneficial) as it were. Do you think at that point, the liberals would be pushing bigger government programs to force people to use fuel, and the conservatives would be bashing the idea of a colder world being a dangerous one? All too often it happens that Democrats support ideas only under a Democrat president but despise them under a Republican administration (and vice versa) - do you think that maybe if all the data were reversed, we'd have people sitting on the same sides, or would they all switch?

    62. Re:Not everything observed... by Jmc23 · · Score: 1

      There's this relationship between the thermostat on my wall and the heater along the wall. Whether i turn the thermostat up to 25 or down to 15, eventually the heater matches the thermostat.

      --
      Don't complain about syntax, grammar, or spelling. There is no.hell like input on android.
    63. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Here's the problem - lacking any sort of specificity as to what "low climate sensitivity" is, or the specific nature and magnitude of both negative and positive natural feedbacks, you setup a "heads I win, tails you lose" proposition.

      Again this is absurd, since "low" is defined in terms of an actual amount of change... The more complex question is what is a safe amount of change, which is orthogonal to the sensitivity. But you can still disprove AGW by showing a low sensitivity.

      And through any of the other things I listed, and almost certainly a dozen more.

      1) how has IPCC's estimate of climate sensitivity changed over the years?

      The estimated sensitivity hasn't changed much in 100 years.

      2) what negative feedbacks have been excluded from existence?

      And what positive feedbacks too. The more important question is why this would be done.

      Hs, asking questions does not make you smart. If you had intellectual integrity, you would now admit that CAGW and AGW are both falsifiable theses, since they make predictions, and rely on theories that can be disproven. If you are a denier, then you will just move to another claim, or start talking about Popper while making up whole cloth a new philosophy of science that has nothing to do with realism. (Hint: if you don't see the connection, then that is proof that you don't know what you are talking about.)

      Regarding the liberal/conservative thing: I am a scientist.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    64. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      But you can still disprove AGW by showing a low sensitivity.

      I'm just asking for a specific definition of "low climate sensitivity" that you would assert falsifies AGW. 2C per doubling? 1.5C per doubling? .8C per doubling?

      Frankly, I'd be surprised if the change in climate sensitivity would be met with surrender rather than an ad hoc special pleading - but that's the problem here, nobody has actually written out the necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement that would explain why 1.5C per doubling supports AGW, but 1.49C per doubling doesn't.

      The estimated sensitivity hasn't changed much in 100 years.

      Please, check your references:
      http://object.cato.org/sites/c...

      http://online.wsj.com/news/art...

      If you had intellectual integrity, you would now admit that CAGW and AGW are both falsifiable theses, since they make predictions, and rely on theories that can be disproven

      If you had any intellectual integrity, you'd admit that by any judgment of CAGW and AGW theses, their predictions *have* been falsified, but ad hoc special pleadings to account for "the pause" and other deviations from observation have been put in place to protect the central conceit here. Hell, so much froth has come out of CAGW and AGW, sometimes asserting *the complete opposite result*, that it's almost trivial to take a look at any observation and say, "see, our AGW paper said so" - that kind of shotgun prediction and cherry picking isn't science by any stretch of the imagination :)

      So, if one CAGW paper says that warming will cause more cyclonic activity, and another CAGW paper says that warming will cause less cyclonic activity, isn't there a real problem with the CAGW hypothesis? Where is the canonical list of CAGW papers, that don't contradict each other, and if a single one is refuted, the whole palace falls? :)

      Relying on theories that can be disproven is one thing - but being a hypothesis that can be disproven by observation is what really counts. Of course astrology could be disproven if it was shown that the north star was actually in a completely different position than previously observed - but just because the position of the north star is *necessary*, doesn't make it *sufficient*.

      Regarding the liberal/conservative thing: I am a scientist.

      There are many scientists who don't think scientifically, and I'll assert that the test is whether or not they understand the importance of a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement :)

    65. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Try putting your thermostat up to 500, and see if the heater ends up matching the thermostat :)

      Try putting your thermostat down to -500, and see if the heater ends up matching the thermostat :)

      There's a relationship, to be sure, but it's not necessarily as linear and straightforward as you might expect for all ranges :)

    66. Re:Not everything observed... by Jmc23 · · Score: 1
      and? Step out of argument mode and realize I don't care about either of your arguments and am just point out the flaw in your logic.

      learn more about the probability of possibilities as well.

      --
      Don't complain about syntax, grammar, or spelling. There is no.hell like input on android.
    67. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Frankly, I'd be surprised if the change in climate sensitivity would be met with surrender rather than an ad hoc special pleading

      Yet this is exactly what you are doing.

      There are many different *observations* that would disprove AGW and CAGW, and you're just trying to split hairs over one, but shifting the target from sensitivity to the effects of heating. And ignoring all the other ways that AGW and CAGW can be disprovien. My bet is that you will do this for many, many years to come.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    68. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      So, you'd like to point out a flaw in the logic of my argument, but you don't care about my argument? :)

      There is a relationship between the thermostat on your wall, and your heater - it controls when your heater will turn on, and when it will turn off. This *contributes* to the temperature of your house, but is not the sole factor, or even the primary factor sometimes (as in, your heater wouldn't be able to cool the temperature - you'd need to add an AC for that).

      Do you see the flaw in the logic of your analogy?

    69. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      There are many different *observations* that would disprove AGW and CAGW

      Observations that wouldn't be responded to with an ad hoc special pleading? Observations, which lacking, would logically mean that all other explanations are excluded besides AGW and CAGW?

      Here's the problem - there are lots of *observations* that would disprove astrology - let's say, all the stars just disappeared, or any particular subset. Yes, this would be considered a falsification, but the simple existence of stars does not logically lead to the conclusion that astrology must be true. The same thing about say, the radiative spectrum of CO2 - of course, if we discovered in the lab that our numbers were wrong, and CO2 was actually magically transparent to all radiation, that would be considered a falsification, but the simple existence of a radiative spectrum of a given element does not logically lead to the conclusion that AGW or CAGW must be true.

      This is a tricky concept to grok, I get it, but it's an important one - falsification must not only be theoretically possible, it must be such that without those observations the only possible conclusion is the proffered hypothesis. It's not just "show me some fanciful ways you could be falsified", it's "show me some ways you could be falsified, such that without those observations logically your explanation is the only one left standing".

      Now, if you want to talk about CAGW and AGW in terms of "low climate sensitivity", put a number on it, and defend why that number is an inflection point between the truth or falsity of your proposition. Of course for CAGW you have the added burden of showing overall harm (not just quoting specific moments of harm that may be outweighed by moments of benefit), but if you're going to actually claim that an observation of low climate sensitivity will refute your hypothesis, shouldn't you have both a definition of climate sensitivity (in this case, I'm assuming CO2), but also a specific value of sensitivity that you're claiming?

    70. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Hi HS, if you want to discuss what constitutes low climate sensitivity, then you have to first admit that AGW and CAGW are both falsifiable hypotheses for other reasons that you have been raised and ignored. Denial specifically works by changing the topic before such an admission. If you cannot be intellectually honest, then I have no time for you.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    71. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Wait a tic, you assert that AGW and CAGW are both falsifiable by observations of low climate sensitivity, but then you insist that I accept your premise as true before being willing to discuss low climate sensitivity, how it is measured, and why a specific value of it would be considered a falsification? :)

      Are you trying to win the argument before it starts by attaching preconditions? :)

      Look, if you're having a hard time coming up with a specific "low climate sensitivity" value that would be a falsification, that's understandable - I doubt you could make an argument that 1.5C/doubling is too low to be "consistent" with your hypothesis, but 1.51C/doubling would be okay. But c'mon, at least admit that you're unable to answer these questions, rather than teasing "I'll only tell you if you admit I'm right first" :)

      You have yet to state or quote a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement for CAGW or AGW - you've given examples of some specific observations that would be a falsification (say, if the earth didn't exist), but you haven't shown any logical reason why the absence of those specific observations would mean that AGW or CAGW must be true, and all other explanations false.

      I'm happy to be proven wrong, but I'm not going to lower the burden of proof for you :)

    72. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Wait a tic, you assert that AGW and CAGW are both falsifiable by observations of low climate sensitivity, but then you insist that I accept your premise as true before being willing to discuss low climate sensitivity,

      Not just low sensitivity. (face-palm.) Go back and read the thread.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    73. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      So wait, what you're saying is that the falsification only happens if *all* the things you mention are observed?

      Your quote, for your reference, uses the word "or":

      " If we show that climate sensitivity is low, or that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas, or that humans didn't put it there"

      Did you mean "and"?

      Of course that doesn't make sense - if we showed climate sensitivity was 0C/doubling of CO2, but CO2 was still a greenhouse gas (just overwhelmed by natural climate variations and feedback systems), you'd still insist on AGW or CAGW?

      This kind of imprecision is *exactly* why I keep demanding the canonical, necessary and sufficient, falsifiable hypothesis statement. Hell, I'll even take a non-canonical one, but let's at least agree what we're talking about first :)

    74. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      So wait, what you're saying is that the falsification only happens if *all* the things you mention are observed?

      To falsify AGW and/or CAGW, you just have to show *any* of them. "or" is correct. Just show A, or B, or, ..., or Z, and AGW/CAGW is toast.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    75. Re:Not everything observed... by Jmc23 · · Score: 1

      shit, you really are dumb aren't you.

      --
      Don't complain about syntax, grammar, or spelling. There is no.hell like input on android.
    76. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Okay, then please:

      1) define what "low climate sensitivity" is by your falsification criteria (a specific C/doubling)
      2) explain why that arbitrary value should define the definition of falsification in this case -> argue against +0.1 or -0.1 as being a more proper falsification.

      My point here is that you're not really specifying a falsification if you can't *specify* it.

    77. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Step out of ad hominem mode and realize I don't care about your name calling and am just pointing out the flaw in your logic :)

    78. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Hi, HS, if you want to talk about sensitivity, then you first have to admit that AGW and CAGW is falsifiable via other tests. You see, we have to settle one issue at a time, otherwise there is no point.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    79. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Wait a tic, you assert that AGW and CAGW are both falsifiable by observations of low climate sensitivity, but then you insist that I accept your premise as true before being willing to discuss low climate sensitivity, how it is measured, and why a specific value of it would be considered a falsification? :)

      Please, explain why order matters here, especially if the question being asked (specific falsification criteria based on low climate sensitivity), is germane to your claim of falsifiability :)

      "Hi, HS, if you want to talk about what "x" is in "x+2", then you first have to admit that "x+2" = 4."

      You're trying to prove that x+2=4, but you don't want to specify x until I admit that it's true?

    80. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Wait a tic, you assert that AGW and CAGW are both falsifiable by observations of low climate sensitivity, but then you insist that I accept your premise as true before being willing to discuss low climate sensitivity, how it is measured, and why a specific value of it would be considered a falsification? :)

      Try and read this very carefully.

      I'm saying that AGW and CAGW can be falsified by observations that have *nothing* to do with climate sensitivity. I even gave examples, and tried to point out that you are systematically ignoring them. Now, this is about the sixth time I've said this, and you're still to catch on. So I've made a bet with my gf whether you get it this time or not.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    81. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are the type of person who would look at a black sky and claim, logically speaking, that it is white -- and without any trace of irony. It is understandable that you want to be "right"; however, if you want to *truly* pursue this, you will have develop an understanding of your own cognitive blinkers.

    82. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is a lot about logic that you don't really get. The fallacy here is that you have to take on the strongest argument, instead of constructing a distraction, refuting it, and then claiming you were right and "logical" all along. Do you know what fallacy that is?

    83. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      The WSJ is not a scientific reference, but a place where people go to enjoy a certain point of view without the distraction of counter-arguments.

      The cato.org source *does* show that estimates of climate sensitivity haven't changed much in 18 different measurements. If you go back 100 years, you still get similar estimates.

      The "pause" in warming is simply not a pause at all. There has been no pause, and the instrumental record shows that clearly -- unless you cherry-pick certain ranges of the surface temperature record *only*. An expert like you would know where most of the heat capacity of the world is, and know to check for warming in that part of the world? If you don't know what I'm talking about, then that is proof you don't have a clue about climate change science. And besides, the surface temperature trend is decadal besides. No-one said that climate change was a monotonic process. (Deniers often argue under this presumption.)

      There are many scientists who don't think scientifically, and I'll assert that the test is whether or not they understand the importance of a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement

      HS, you said this without any trace of irony. I'm trying to get you to admit that low sensitivity is sufficient, but not necessary, for falsifying AGW and CAGW. You are the one who doesn't understand.

      People in denial can never tell. You remind be of Tobias Funke. Don't bother responding to this post. If you want to talk to me, then you'll have to respond to a very simple (nay black and white) assertion of high-school level logic, regarding the importance of necessary and sufficient with reference to sensitivity.

    84. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm saying that AGW and CAGW can be falsified by observations that have *nothing* to do with climate sensitivity.

      I get it. But you specifically called out "low climate sensitivity" as a falsification criteria, then failed to specify a value or an argument.

      I'm asking you to defend *one* out of the three things you said, ( something that might actually make sense if you can defend it). (Note, CO2 being a greenhouse gas is trivially shown as insufficient - you can't logically assert that the radiative properties of a single trace gas inevitably lead to AGW or CAGW.)

      So I've made a bet with my gf whether you get it this time or not.

      My wife already won the bet she made with me about you not getting it yet :)

    85. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      A bad analogy was made. I pointed it out. The response was ad hominem.

      Who has the cognitive blinkers on?

    86. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      You think they made more than one argument? This particular thread is on the "perfect thermostat" analogy.

      Are you responding to some other thread?

    87. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Wow. You deny the actual observed temperature record, you deny that climate sensitivity estimates have changed, and *I'm* the denier? :)

      Poor Tobias. You remind me of Buster :)

    88. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm trying to get you to admit that low sensitivity is sufficient, but not necessary, for falsifying AGW and CAGW.

      Okay, low sensitivity (unspecified in magnitude here) is sufficient to falsify both AGW and CAGW.

      And, low sensitivity (unspecified in magnitude here) is not *necessary* for AGW and CAGW to be falsified (particularly true for CAGW, since if warming is beneficial, the "C" goes away).

      I'm trying to get you to *specify a magnitude* of what you consider "low sensitivity" and then justify why slightly higher sensitivity is not a falsification.

      I think you don't have either a specification, nor do you have a cogent rationale to justify why a slightly higher sensitivity would not be a falsification. Plainly put, you don't understand the weakness of your train of argument here.

    89. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      I get it. But you specifically called out "low climate sensitivity" as a falsification criteria, then failed to specify a value or an argument.

      Great, so you agree that you can falsify AGW and CAGW without reference to climate sensitivity.

      Note that this all started when I responded to your claim that AGW and CAGW are not falsifiable. I included the relevant information in the first post I made to you. Now think how hard it was to communicate this very mathematically-simple idea. It has taken days and half a dozen posts for you to concede that AGW and CAGW are actually falsifiable. The main problem was that you honed in on one point which you wanted to attack, but ignored the larger argument -- effectively attempting to bury it. This is a cliche mechanism that ensures no progress gets made in these types of discussions.

      If we are going to plunge ahead, you need to promise to restrict yourself to very specific topics, address the *strongest* argument, and gracefully concede points when appropriate. If you cannot do this, then there is no point talking. I will do the same, in good faith, that you have managed to admit that AGW and CAGW are indeed falsifiable.

      Deal?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    90. Re:Not everything observed... by Jmc23 · · Score: 1
      sigh, some kind soul even tried to help you and yet you still couldn't see. I'm such a sucker for stupid people.

      Perhaps, just perhaps, you are wrong and a bad analogy wasn't made. Perhaps, just perhaps, you think it's a bad analogy because your 'correction' of the analogy shows the exact same flaw in logic as your previous posts.

      And because you really are dumb shit stupid, you can't call ad hominem on something when i was NEVER arguing with you in the first place you dumb ass. I was actually just being nice because you seemed to show a modicum of thought ability. Guess I can still be wrong.

      --
      Don't complain about syntax, grammar, or spelling. There is no.hell like input on android.
    91. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Your analogy was bad, plain and simple. Here's the quote I made, in regards to using isotope ratios as some sort of anthropogenic marker:

      "BOTTOM LINE: If the C13/C12 relationship during NATURAL inter-annual variability is the same as that found for the trends, how can people claim that the trend signal is MANMADE??"

      You replied with a thermostat analogy, which not only doesn't follow, but was prima facie false - anyone who knows anything about heaters and thermostats knows that the thermostat controls whether the heater turns on or off - it doesn't guarantee that the actual heat in the room will arrive at the temperature indicated on the thermostat.

      You claim that there is some sort of flaw in pointing out your bad analogy and mistaken understanding of heaters and thermostats, but you haven't actually spelled it out...

      As for ad hominem, I think your comments have already proven my point :)

      Guess I can still be wrong.

      Let me assure you, you were wrong, and still are wrong :)

    92. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Great, so you agree that you can falsify AGW and CAGW without reference to climate sensitivity.

      No, I agree that you claimed that :) You haven't shown that at all, and given the fact that you can't even make the argument for a specific "low climate sensitivity", I doubt you'll be able to show it at all :)

      The main problem was that you honed in on one point which you wanted to attack, but ignored the larger argument

      I honed in on the first thing on your list - there is no "larger argument" if you can't defend it's pieces :)

      you need to promise to restrict yourself to very specific topics, address the *strongest* argument, and gracefully concede points when appropriate

      I will promise to do so once you agree that you have not shown that either AGW or CAGW have necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statements, and gracefully concede that you have no defense for any specification of "low climate sensitivity" or argument for why it should be set in any particular place :)

      Heck, I've already done most of what you've asked - your strongest argument was the "low climate sensitivity", and I've restricted myself to that for quite a while now :)

      Here, let me reprint your list of four points, in order:

      * climate sensitivity is low,
      This is probably your best angle.

      * CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas
      Too obviously insufficient, since the radiative properties of a molecule don't automatically lead to some strong overarching AGW or CAGW.

      * humans didn't put it there,
      Another weak one, since the isotope ratios don't really show what you think it shows.

      * there are negative feedbacks
      To obviously already observed - once you admit this is a falsification, you've already falsified your theory!

      So, let's see, going on ten posts now, let's see if you can answer the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

    93. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, I agree that you claimed that :) You haven't shown that at all, and given the fact that you can't even make the argument for a specific "low climate sensitivity", I doubt you'll be able to show it at all :)

      Okay your brain has thrown a syntax error. You think you're logical and smart, but really what is going on is that competent people avoid you, and the rest shut up after you've irritated them with your arrogance.

    94. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      A syntax error? :)

      At the most generous, an egregious misunderstanding of what I said occurred. Most likely, however, the misunderstanding was malicious and intentional, and simply a tactic to "score a point" as it were in some imaginary game being played in microbox's head :)

      So, let's see, going on eleven posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critique of me failed to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    95. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...

      Interesting to note that the CMPI5 models are all over the map when it comes to climate sensitivity.

      At what point is AGW and CAGW falsified? 1.5C/doubling? 1.6C/doubling?

    96. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At the most generous, an egregious misunderstanding of what I said occurred.

      Q = P or Q or R or ... Z

      Proposition Q is true if any of [P...Z] are true.

      We're not talking about the truth value of [P..Z], just the nature of the equation.

      It is impossible to get you to stick to the point. We cannot even discuss this very simple proposition because of the continuous stream of distractions about the truth-value of [P...Z]. It should be obvious to you (but maybe not) that the truth value of [P..Z] is orthogonal to the equation. The reason why you do this is a secret you keep from yourself.

      You see, there is cognitive evidence that you have to temporarily accept the truth of a statement merely to understand it. Thus it is impossible to comprehend something you don't believe without keeping two mutually inconsistent beliefs in your mind at the same time.

      You think CAGW is false. Fine. But your belief so so absolute, so unconditional, so bound into your ego, that you cannot even process contrary information accurately. You literally cannot read. I bet you cannot admit that it is falsifiable... I bet you cannot even say it... which is the true motivation of talking about the truth values of [P...Z], instead of the equation itself.

      If you were as smart as you think you are, then you'd be able to argue AGW and CAGW from any point of view. As a true skeptic, I am able to understand the "motivated" skeptics case, and am thus familiar with the rhetoric. I bet you haven't the foggiest idea what actual scientists say, but are full of talking points generated by those you agree with.

      I think you don't have the self-esteem for this. You really are utterly clueless about yourself.

    97. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Q = P or Q or R or ... Z

      Proposition Q is true if any of [P...Z] are true.

      I see your misunderstanding. Well, two possible misunderstandings.

      1) You've stated Q = Q (i.e., proposition Q is true if Q is true) - obviously an error on your part, but you should be aware.

      2) Of [P, R...Z], your strongest argument is P (i.e., low climate sensitivity). Consider picking that one as a favor to you :)

      3) You have been unable to defend P at all, and given that it is your strongest argument, it's unlikely that any of the others will stand.

      You think CAGW is false.

      But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about "does CAGW have a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement?" Leave for the moment whether or not the hypothesis is true aside - the question is do you have a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement.

      We've taken your Q = [P,R...Z] argument, found your strongest candidate, and you've been unable to defend it.

      Here - *you* pick what you think your strongest argument is :) Go ahead, pick your strongest one, and we'll hit that first :)

      Oh, what's that you say? The whole game is to avoid answering questions about your arguments, so you decline to pick one? :)

      So, let's see, going on twelve posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your continued critiques of me fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    98. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      We're not talking about the truth value of [P..Z], just the nature of the equation.

      Logic lesson for you:

      You have options of [P,R..Z] - you must show that at *least* one of those is a "necessary and sufficient" falsifiable hypothesis statement for AGW or CAGW.

      Thus far, you have been unable to defend *anything* between [P,R...Z]. You've made 4 propositions for values of [P,R...Z], and you've been unable to defend the strongest one. You haven't been able to defend any of the weaker ones either.

      So, you can argue this two ways:

      1) successfully defend *any* of your propositions;
      2) insist that even if all of your propositions are indefensible, that somewhere, out there, some unspecified proposition will in fact be defensible, and on that basis we should accept the truth of Q.

      Can you guess what logical fallacy #2 is? :)

      http://www.fallacyfiles.org/ig...

    99. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      HS, there is a difference between falsifiable and falsified. I don't need to defend *anything* between [P...Z], because I'm not arguing whether AGW is true or not -- just trying to get you to admit that it can be falsified. For example, if you show that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas... or the warming is due to the sun... or that the CO2 is natural, *any* of those statements would falsify AGW. So AGW is falsifiable.

      Do you understand? Can you admit that AGW is falsifiable? I'm going to guess no.

    100. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I don't need to defend *anything* between [P...Z], because I'm not arguing whether AGW is true or not -- just trying to get you to admit that it can be falsified.

      Ah, I see your misunderstanding.

      I'm not asking you to defend the *truth* of AGW or CAGW - I'm asking you to defend the *falsifiability* of it. Specifically, you need to show a [P,R...Z] exists such that it is a "necessary and sufficient" falsifiable hypothesis statement for AGW or CAGW.

      *any* of those statements would falsify AGW. So AGW is falsifiable.

      Yes, but those are only *necessary*, not *necessary and sufficient*. Follow along with me:

      1) CO2 is not a greenhouse gas

      The fact that any specific gas is a greenhouse gas does not make AGW or CAGW true. While this is *necessary*, clearly, it is not sufficient to simply declare the radiative properties of a greenhouse gas. It is not only possible, but likely that CO2 is a greenhouse gas primarily driven by atmospheric temperature, rather than the other way around.

      So, not *sufficient*.

      2) The warming is due to the sun

      This is simply shifting the burden of proof. Even if this falsification is *not* observed, it does not mean that the only remaining cause of warming is CO2. Natural causes of climate change span more than the sun. Of course, trivially, the observed warming must not have some other genesis, but simply excluding one genesis does not exclude all but your preferred.

      So, *necessary* but not *necessary and sufficient*.

      3) The CO2 is natural

      Again, *necessary* (since if it's not CO2 from humans, you get rid of the A), but not *sufficient*, since it's quite possible that humans add CO2 to the atmosphere, but it does not measurably affect atmospheric temperatures.

      So, *necessary* but not *necessary and sufficient*.

      Do you understand? Can you admit that AGW is falsifiable?

      Do *you* understand? Can you admit that while you have found trivial, *necessary* components for AGW and CAGW to be true, until you have the list include enough criteria to be *sufficient*, and exclude all other competing explanations (including the null hypothesis of any form of natural variation), you've failed your task.

      Astrology can be falsified by:

      1) there not being stars;
      2) stars not having gravity;
      3) there not being an earth;
      4) there not being people.

      All of these are arguably falsifications because astrology *must* have the opposite to be true - there *must* be stars, they *must* have gravity, there *must* be an earth and there *must* be people for Astrology to work. But listing out all the "musts" (i.e., *necessary* factors) is not necessarily listing out enough criteria to be *sufficient*.

      Can you grok the difference?

      Now, you missed one item - the low climate sensitivity, arguably your strongest argument.

      So, let's see, going on thirteen posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    101. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      HS, if there were no stars, then Astrology would be false. Astrology make predictions, and has been falsified already with some clever experiments. Not going to bother digging up a reference. If you look into the philosophy of science, you will find that there is an infinite regress of questions that you can ask -- and if you do this you end up with relativism, which is trending amongst science deniers, esp. in the social sciences, but has nothing to do with scientific epistemologies.

      You seem to be asking for a logical statement that proves AGW is true, which is not the opposite of proving it is false.

      HS, you are a classic exemplar for Dunning-Kruger. I feel sorry for everyone who has to live around you.

    102. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      You seem to be asking for a logical statement that proves AGW is true, which is not the opposite of proving it is false.

      You still don't understand - I'm not looking for something to prove AGW is true. I'm looking for you to show me a set of observations that will do two things:

      1) if they are observed, then AGW/CAGW is falsified; (necessary)
      2) if they are not observed, then the *only* logical conclusion is AGW/CAGW. (sufficient)

      You've done a bang up job of noting a few things in part 1, but you've been unable to defend part 2.

      So, let's see, going on fourteen posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    103. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      I'm not looking for something to prove AGW is true.

      2) if they are not observed, then the *only* logical conclusion is AGW/CAGW. (sufficient)

      Both cannot be true.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    104. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Sure they can be.

      #2 listed does not specify whether things are observed or not, it simply demands that there is a logical argument that if they are *not* observed, then the only conclusion is AGW/CAGW.

      I'm not making a pre-judgement on whether or not these observations will happen or not, but the sufficient set of falsification criteria must exist, and must have a logical argument for why their absence at the very least implies AGW/CAGW over all other explanations.

      What part about this exercise aren't you understanding? Do you think I'm insisting that specified observations must *exist* and already be observed? I'm simply asking for these *possible* observations to be *specified*, so that if we *do* see them, we recognize them.

      For example, "all swans are white". Falsified by the observation of a single black swan. We may never see a single black swan - that's an open question.

      Or, "life only exists on earth". Falsified by the observation of a single life form anywhere else in the universe. We may never see extraterrestrial life - it's an open question.

      So, AGW/CAGW. Falsified by [necessary] [sufficient] observations. We may never see those observations - it's an open question.

    105. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1
      Hi HS, this is where you invent your own science -- completely ignorant of any discourse on the subject -- proposing tests that no extant scientific theory could pass, including all the ones that you believe.

      Can you dig up a reference in published peer reviewed literature of this:

      2) if they are not observed, then the *only* logical conclusion is . (sufficient)

      There are a lot of quacks who get published in this field... but that's pretty far out there, and you obviously made it up. (aka special ad hoc pleading.)

      Of course, you're the scientific one.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    106. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      The idea of a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement is fundamental to the scientific method from its inception, but most eloquently spoken of by Karl Popper. I assume you've heard of him, but my guess is you haven't actually *read* him. I highly recommend both his books and papers.

      So, let's see, going on fifteen posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

      Lacking an explicit answer, let's be clear that implicitly you're saying that there is no climate sensitivity that would falsify your belief system, and that even if there were you'd have no cogent argument as to why it was set there. I'm totally cool with that, since your continued lack of answer simply strengthens my case, but I thought I'd be very clear as to how you're damaging your proposition in this debate :)

    107. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1
      Right, every skeptic knows about Popper. Tell me, which journal article did popper write this:

      2) if they are not observed, then the *only* logical conclusion is . (sufficient)

      We both know you're pulling this out of your ass.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    108. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      What don't you understand about the idea of a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis? If your falsification criteria could be used to support multiple hypotheses, how would you discern which one is true? Don't you understand the need to be specific to your favored hypothesis?

      The whole *point* of Karl Popper's explanation of this basic principle of the scientific method is to derive knowledge from *exclusion* - is there some reason why he's confused you? Start here:

      http://www.stephenjaygould.org...

      So, let's see, going on sixteen posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    109. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, I actually know something about the philosophy of science -- from an academic point of view. It's obvious to me that you know next to nothing about it. So... prove me wrong by finding where Popper says (in his writings) that sufficiently falsifiable means a set of observations when not present forces someone to accept a hypothesis. This is a ludicrous assertions.

      Science denial generally ends with people creating their own science, and then claiming it is the best science. This is a timeless phenomenon. You are just like Ken Ham.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    110. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      http://strangebeautiful.com/ot...

      I highly suggest reading the entire thing. But here's the question of necessary and sufficient (intro para, there's more following):

      "We say that a theory is falsified only if we have accepted basic state- ments which contradict it (cf. section 11, rule 2). This condition is necessary, but not sufficient; for we have seen that non-reproducible single occurrences are of no significance to science. Thus a few stray basic statements contradicting a theory will hardly induce us to reject it as falsified. We shall take it as falsified only if we discover a reproducible effect which refutes the theory. In other words, we only accept the falsification if a low-level empirical hypothesis which describes such an effect is proposed and corroborated."

      So, let's see, going on seventeen posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    111. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1
      Neither the quote nor the linked article support the assertion that, to quote you:

      2) if they are not observed, then the *only* logical conclusion is AGW/CAGW. (sufficient)

      You do realize that you are stuffing words in Popper's mouth -- not that hes the be-all-or-end-all of anything -- just that the science denial crowd like the term "falsifiability" even if they do not know what it is.

      So it still stands... where does Popper actually say that falsifiability means a set of *negative* observations leads to a single logical conclusion to accept a theory?

      This misses the whole point of falsifiability.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    112. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Sure it does - continue reading chapter 4 where the quote starts. Let me know where you get lost.

      So, let's see, going on eighteen posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    113. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, you are now claiming that Popper says that a set of negative observations can lead to a single logical conclusion to accept a theory. And further that this is what he means by a sufficient condition for falsifiability. But you cannot provide a single quote.

      YOU ARE A JOKE.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    114. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Do you need me to post the entire chapter for you? Have you failed to understand what he says about the requirement of sufficiency?

      Put another way, do you imagine that having a set of falsification observations, that if not observed, could support multiple hypotheses, is enough to discern between them?

      You can state that an orange weighs half a pound, and if the object you weigh is not half a pound, then it is not an orange - but you haven't done anything to show that "all things that weigh half a pound are oranges" - your falsification criteria must *exclude* other explanations (like a half-pound hamburger).

      So, let's see, going on nineteen posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    115. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Popper: "We shall take it as falsified only if we discover a reproducible effect which refutes the theory. In other words, we only accept the falsification if a low-level empirical hypothesis which describes such an effect is proposed and corroborated."

      HS: "2) if they are not observed, then the *only* logical conclusion is AGW/CAGW. (sufficient)"

      HS: "What don't you understand about the idea of a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis?"

      Why talk about sensitivity when you cannot even own up to being balls wrong about what science is?

      Do you know what Dunning-Kruger refers to?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    116. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      "Besides being consistent, an empirical system should satisfy a fur- ther condition: it must be falsifiable. The two conditions are to a large extent analogous.1 Statements which do not satisfy the condition of consistency fail to differentiate between any two statements within the totality of all possible statements. Statements which do not satisfy the condition of falsifiability fail to differentiate between any two statements within the totality of all possible empirical basic statements."

      Again, you've failed to understand that a proposed set of falsifications that cannot discern between two different hypotheses. Another section from Popper:

      "An example of an auxiliary hypothesis which is eminently acceptable in this sense is Pauli’s exclu- sion principle (cf. section 38). An example of an unsatisfactory aux- iliary hypothesis would be the contraction hypothesis of Fitzgerald and Lorentz which had no falsifiable consequences but merely*1 served to restore the agreement between theory and experiment—mainly the findings of Michelson and Morley."

      So, let's see, going on twenty posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    117. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, denial works by changing what is said slightly, and then adding new claims, and this process goes on forever. There will be no talk on sensitivity until you man up about creating new science.

      It is obvious that you really believe what you're saying -- which is why its called denial, and not "lying". But we've reached a stage where you are swearing black is white.

      Where doe Popper say, as YOU SAID, that falsifiability means a set of negative observations leads to the single logical conclusion of accepting a theory. (Hint: he never says this.)

      You can weasel around all day, but we're not playing the game where you change your tune and add more claims.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    118. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      I should add, that what you're really looking for what constitutes a "genuine test of a theory"... which is the pith of what Popper is talking about. A genuine test says nothing about negative observations. It genuine test also does not lead you to directly accept a theory. So your really have no idea what you're talking about.

      Know what Dunning-Kruger refers to?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    119. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry you can't figure out what Popper meant based on his words. Yes, I've paraphrased him, and you won't find an exact quote. If you actually *read* his book, it should be obvious that sufficiency is required - you cannot possibly assert that you've made a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement for a single proposition if it cannot exclude other hypotheses.

      So, let's see, going on twenty-one posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    120. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      You're again misunderstanding Popper's intent. The necessity of falsifiability is not satisfied simply by a trivial falsification - it must be more than that, and he explains himself in quite a bit of detail. The gist of it is, you need a logical argument for why the lack of falsification observations excludes all other explanation besides your hypothesis. That's a summary of his point, that apparently you can't see in the details itself.

      So, let's see, going on twenty-two posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    121. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, you've stuffed words in his mouth. The quote you gave was about "low-level" empirical tests that falsify, but you were talking about negative observations forcing a single logical acceptance of a theory. (Like ROTFL bad argument.) And now... you're simply claiming that "I don't understand". That I should read a book which you were just furiously reading to find some scrap to support the ridiculous statement you made. I assume that you only have very oblique awareness at this point: that you MADE IT UP WHOLE CLOTH. Yet somehow I should just trust you that you're accurately paraphrasing Popper without any evidence.

      Now you do believe in evidence don't you?

      If you want to impugn AGW using the philosophy of science, you probably need to look at the Duhem-Quine thesis, which you've probably never heard of.

      Just throwing you a bone, since you are obviously pounding the table.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    122. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      The necessity of falsifiability is not satisfied simply by a trivial falsification

      Agreed, but that is not what you said.

      HS: "2) if they are not observed, then the *only* logical conclusion is AGW/CAGW. (sufficient)"

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    123. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      That is what I said, simply put in a way that you apparently didn't understand.

      You do realize that I'm simply explaining to you the difference between a trivial falsification and a non-trivial falsification, right?

      So, let's see, going on twenty-three posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    124. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I've paraphrased Popper, and you've refused to accept it. I've provided the complete Popper work, and you've refused to read it, or been unable to understand it. You don't believe that I'm accurately paraphrasing Popper, but still can't seem to make the logical argument that any of your specific falsification observations are anything but trivial falsifications that are not sufficient to make for a falsifiable hypothesis.

      Are you really going to make the argument that observing CO2 not being a greenhouse gas is a sufficient specification of falsification criteria for AGW/CAGW as to be considered non-trivial? Really? Your best opportunity to defend your point of view is on the idea of climate sensitivity, but you feign offense as an excuse not to answer :) It's as transparent as any juvenile attempt to change the subject :)

      So, let's see, going on twenty-four posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    125. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1
      Hi HS, I just dug up a short article by Lakatos, a contemporary of Popper. Popper said may of the same things, but not in as direct a way as this. (Popper indirectly addressed this issue via talking about an infinite regress of demands for falsifiability.)

      Pay particular attention to the difference between naive falsification and falsification.

      You do realize that I'm simply explaining to you the difference between a trivial falsification and a non-trivial falsification, right?

      Oh yes, I do get that, and I'm trying to point out that you are making stuff up.

      Put that aside...

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    126. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Here, maybe this quote will help you:

      "With the help of other statements, previously accepted, certain singular statements— which we may call ‘predictions’—are deduced from the theory; especially predictions that are easily testable or applicable.
              * From among these statements, those are selected which are not derivable from the current theory, and more especially those which the current theory contradicts. "

      Your specific problem, in terms of the quote provided, is that your predictions are derivable from more than simply AGW/CAGW hypotheses. If you cannot exclude observations that could be explained through natural, non-athropogenic mechanisms and feedbacks, you've done nothing to satisfy Popper's deductive testing of theories. I have paraphrased this into a demand that logically asserts that our deductions from a hypothesis, must logically make us conclude only our proposed hypothesis is true.

      Your citation actually backs me up: "For the sophisticated falsificationist a theory is "acceptable" or "scientific" only if it has corroborated excess empirical content over its predecessor (or rival), that is, only if it leads to the discovery of novel facts."

      There is nothing novel about CO2 being a greenhouse gas, and nothing about CO2 being a greenhouse gas that excludes natural climate change as the reason for observed temperature increases since the little ice age. All of your assertions of potential falsifications *fail* - with the possible exception of low climate sensitivity, which you've been completely unable to defend.

      So, let's see, going on twenty-five posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

      What argument do you have to exclude a small increase in climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 from your initial falsification criteria?

      The fact that your critiques of me continue to fail to include any sort of answer to the question is very telling, don't you think? :)

    127. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, you're changing your story... this is a classic cognitive escape hatch.

      If you want to talk about Popper, then you should do so accurately, which you simply have not done so. The relevant theory from Popper (as I already stated) was about what constitutes a "good test". That has nothing to do with negative observations, or being *forced* to accept a logical conclusion of acceptance of a theory. AS YOU STATED YOURSELF.

      Now all you have to do is claim that any test is not a good test, because it is too obvious to argue (everything but sensitivity), or that it is arguable, and therefore not a good test (sensitivity)

      The reason why science deniers of all stripes like to reach for falsifiability is because it gives carte blanche to move the goal posts wherever you want.

      There is a mountain of evidence that supports AGW, (but not CAGW), which means that potentially major rewriting of science would be required to over-turn it.

      From what I surmise, you agree with AGW, but not CAGW. Correct?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    128. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Both these statements are true:

      1) your list of tests are not good tests because they don't exclude other explanations besides your favored one;
      2) in order to have a list of good tests sufficient for a hypothesis, the lack of those observations must logically lead us to conclude only our favored hypothesis.

      Take your pick :)

      Some more Popper quotes for you, particularly regarding "mountains of evidence":

      "For I am going to propose (in sections 20 f.) that the empirical method shall be characterized as a method that excludes precisely those ways of evading falsification which, as my imaginary critic rightly insists, are logically possible. According to my proposal, what charac- terizes the empirical method is its manner of exposing to falsification, in every conceivable way, the system to be tested. Its aim is not to save the lives of untenable systems but, on the contrary, to select the one which is by comparison the fittest, by exposing them all to the fiercest struggle for survival."

      "A system such as classical mechanics may be ‘scientific’ to any degree you like; but those who uphold it dogmatically—believing, perhaps, that it is their business to defend such a successful system against criticism as long as it is not conclusively disproved—are adopting the very reverse of that critical attitude which in my view is the proper one for the scientist."

      " This is very necessary; for a severe test of a system presup- poses that it is at the time sufficiently definite and final in form to make it impossible for new assumptions to be smuggled in. In other words, the system must be formulated sufficiently clearly and definitely to make every new assumption easily recognizable for what it is: a modification and therefore a revision of the system."

      "A clear appreciation of what may be gained (and lost) by con- ventionalist methods was expressed, a hundred years before Poincaré, by Black who wrote: ‘A nice adaptation of conditions will make almost any hypothesis agree with the phenomena. This will please the imagination but does not advance our knowledge.’1"

      "A theory is to be called ‘empirical’ or ‘falsifiable’ if it divides the class of all possible basic statements unambiguously into the following two non-empty sub- classes. First, the class of all those basic statements with which it is inconsistent (or which it rules out, or prohibits): we call this the class of the potential falsifiers of the theory; and secondly, the class of those basic statements which it does not contradict (or which it ‘permits’). We can put this more briefly by saying: a theory is falsifiable if the class of its potential falsifiers is not empty."

      "It might then be said, further, that if the class of potential falsifiers of one theory is ‘larger’ than that of another, there will be more opportunities for the first theory to be refuted by experience; thus compared with the second theory, the first theory may be said to be ‘falsifiable in a higher degree’. This also means that the first theory says more about the world of experience than the second theory, for it rules out a larger class of basic statements. Although the class of permitted statements will thereby become smaller, this does not affect our argu- ment; for we have seen that the theory does not assert anything about this class. Thus it can be said that the amount of empirical information conveyed by a theory, or its empirical content, increases with its degree of falsifiability."

      "We say that a theory is ‘corroborated’ so long as it stands up to these tests. The appraisal which asserts corroboration (the corroborative appraisal) establishes certain fundamental relations, viz. compatibility and incompatibility. We regard incompatibility as falsification of the theory. But compatibility alone must not make us attribute to the the- ory a positive degree of corroboration: the mere fact that a theory h

    129. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, if you believe that human emitted CO2 has some net effect on surface temperature, then you are ahead of about 50% of "skeptics" out there.

      Regarding philosophy of science (POS), you do indeed need to rule out alternative explanations. According to Lakatois, you must show a better theory (or collection there of) in order to falsify, or you are stuck in "naive falsification", which certainly sounds like you.

      CAGW can only be shown if the net effect of AGW is going to have significant undesirable effects. As such, it can be falsified by showing low sensitivity, or alternatively, by showing that AGW is not true -- which itself relies on a considerable constellation of testable theories. Leave aside -- just for a moment what low sensitivity is precisely. We can talk about that.

      If you can agree to that assessment, I can give you a reasonable testable prediction for CAGW which would kill it with 5-10 years worth of measurement. (The data fits retroactively, but the test cannot be done this way, because the past is the past.)

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    130. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      According to Lakatois, you must show a better theory (or collection there of) in order to falsify, or you are stuck in "naive falsification", which certainly sounds like you.

      Actually, quite an accurate critique of the AGW/CAGW position - the null hypothesis that needs to be excluded is natural climate change. Nothing yet predicted in the whole mountain of various and contradictory predictions of the AGW/CAGW movement has excluded natural climate change (neither rate of change, nor amount of change).

      CAGW can only be shown if the net effect of AGW is going to have significant undesirable effects.

      Not sure if you're being clever with your construction there, but the "net effect" of AGW could have "significant undesirable effects" at the same time that it has significant *desirable* effects. CAGW is only shown if the "net effect" shows *more* significant undesirable effects than significant desirable effects (measured in some metric of "desirable" that is undefined at this point).

      Which, unless you can specify some metric for "desirable/undesirable effects", is a fool's errand. Hell, just looking at the effect on the biosphere in the past warm periods compared to past cold periods gives us at least some historical basis to doubt it's premise.

      by showing that AGW is not true -- which itself relies on a considerable constellation of testable theories.

      But, unlike the demands of the scientific method, there has been no logical argument put forth as to why the "considerable constellation" of *necessary* factors is in fact *sufficient* for us to consider them "good tests" or an appropriate exclusion of "new assumptions":

      "This is very necessary; for a severe test of a system presup- poses that it is at the time sufficiently definite and final in form to make it impossible for new assumptions to be smuggled in. In other words, the system must be formulated sufficiently clearly and definitely to make every new assumption easily recognizable for what it is: a modification and therefore a revision of the system."

      I can give you a reasonable testable prediction for CAGW which would kill it with 5-10 years worth of measurement.

      And I'll bet that I can give you the ad hoc special pleading that would preserve the CAGW belief no matter what your testable prediction is :)

      Think of it:

      1) more CO2, more warming - assert CAGW true (put aside the fact that "catastrophe" is a political slogan
      2) more CO2, no warming - assert CAGW true, temporarily paused due to aerosol activity that was anomalous
      3) more CO2, more cooling - assert CAGW true, temporarily paused due to aerosol activity that was anomalous
      4) stable CO2, more warming - assert CAGW true (heat "in the pipe")
      5) stable CO2, no warming - assert CAGW true (correlation fits again)
      6) stable CO2, more cooling - assert CAGW true, temporarily paused due to aerosol activity that was anomalous
      7) decreasing CO2, more warming - assert CAGW true, insist that the "hidden CO2" is not acidifying the ocean, or doing something else nefarious out of the atmosphere
      8) decreasing CO2, no warming - assert CAGW true, but expected temperature decrease paused by ocean heat activity making up the difference.
      9) decreasing CO2, more cooling - assert CAGW true (correlation fits again)

      Popper noted it this way:

      "For it is always possible to find some way of evading falsification, for example by introducing ad hoc an auxiliary hypothesis, or by changing ad hoc a definition. It is even possible without logical inconsistency to adopt the position of simply refusing to acknowledge any falsifying experience whatsoever"

      So, let's see, going on twenty-seven posts now, still waiting for answers to the questions:

      What specific measure of climate sensitivity in degrees C/doubling of CO2 would you consider a falsification of AGW and CAGW?

    131. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Actually, quite an accurate critique of the AGW/CAGW position - the null hypothesis that needs to be excluded is natural climate change.

      Yes.

      Not sure if you're being clever with your construction there, but the "net effect" of AGW could have "significant undesirable effects" at the same time that it has significant *desirable* effects.

      The net effects are significantly undesirable -- accounting for both desirable and undesirable outcomes.

      Do you agree to this characterisation?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    132. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      The net effects are significantly undesirable -- accounting for both desirable and undesirable outcomes.

      I don't agree that that has been shown, but I agree that is what is being *asserted*. I've seen no metric of enumeration for desirable and undesirable outcomes, nor is there any historical argument to show for example, that our world in 2014 (approximately 0.8C warmer than 1914) is less desirable than the world in 1914. Of course I'm sure technology serves as a great confounder there, but then, so could it be in the future as well.

      The count is twenty-eight now for the low climate answers, but it now stands at one for the "constellation" question:

      Do you admit that there are peer reviewed papers, supporting the idea of AGW/CAGW, that predict the *opposite* of each other, so that when either observation is made, instead of AGW/CAGW being falsified, we simply assert that the falsified prediction was not in fact necessary to AGW/CAGW?

      Example of AGW/CAGW predictions that are apparently not part of the falsifiability criteria: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ne...

      Note that if any of the predictions in question were to come true, it would've been claimed as a validation of AGW/CAGW - but notice how these hollow predictions, once failed, don't touch the central conceit in question?

    133. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      I don't agree that that has been shown

      Slow down. We're not talking about whether it has been shown. But we are talking about if that is what is required (in part) to show CAGW.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    134. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I agree that is what is being *asserted*. I've seen no metric of enumeration for desirable and undesirable outcomes, nor is there any historical argument to show for example, that our world in 2014 (approximately 0.8C warmer than 1914) is less desirable than the world in 1914. Of course I'm sure technology serves as a great confounder there, but then, so could it be in the future as well.

      To be more specific and scientific, CAGW should exclude something - i.e., it should exclude cases where a warmer world is more desirable than a colder one, at least over some specific range, or exclude cases where a greater rate in warming is more desirable than a slower rate. Only by specifying the exclusions (and ridding ourselves of the "covering all your bets" pattern of "AGW will cause A" and "AGW will cause NOT A"), do we actually get to the falsifiability required to assert CAGW is falsifiable in the strictest sense.

      The count is twenty-nine now for the low climate answers, but it now stands at two for the "constellation" question:

      Do you admit that there are peer reviewed papers, supporting the idea of AGW/CAGW, that predict the *opposite* of each other, so that when either observation is made, instead of AGW/CAGW being falsified, we simply assert that the falsified prediction was not in fact necessary to AGW/CAGW?

    135. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Hi HS, we still have to agree whether AGW/CAGW is falsifiable. If we've made any progress, we've agreed that

      (1) AGW would be falsified if natural variables explain the record better than anthropogenic variables.
      (2) CAGW would be falsified if sensitivity is low to anthropogenic variables, *or*, if a warmer planet is good/not-a-big-deal

      Can we agree to that?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    136. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      No, I think you're barking up the wrong tree again.

      "natural variables explain the record better" assumes some sort of perfect knowledge about natural variables, and fails to understand that an arbitrary anthropogenic model can be tuned to "explain"...especially when you have a half dozen different models that all have say, different climate sensitivity variables, but spout the same output. Not much to see there but the tuning of a model. You might restate:

      "AGW would be falsified if any non-anthropogenic variables of any sort, known or unknown to humanity, explain the record better than anthropogenic variables."

      Since it's impossible to enumerate the unknown variables, that statement is a *poor* test.

      Again, from Popper:

      "This is very necessary; for a severe test of a system presup- poses that it is at the time sufficiently definite and final in form to make it impossible for new assumptions to be smuggled in. In other words, the system must be formulated sufficiently clearly and definitely to make every new assumption easily recognizable for what it is: a modification and therefore a revision of the system."

      Put another way, with a cohort of 25 GCMs, how many of them do you consider falsified by observations? They obviously can't all be true (since they have different variables for the same things), and we have no reason to believe that they would be randomly distributed so their average isn't a path to truth either.

      We still haven't seen any set of statements that would be a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement for AGW. No observations have yet been specified that AGW *excludes* any more than natural climate change.

      So, let's put the shoe on the other foot:

      1) Natural climate change would be falsified if the modern record is beyond the bounds of any observed natural variation prior to the industrial age;
      2) A beneficent warming planet would be falsified if the historical record showed a more diverse and stable ecosystem during colder periods than warmer periods.

      I'm sure you'll agree that both of these statements are true, and that neither falsification has been observed.

      With your point 2, you get a bit closer, but you fail to specify what we mean by "sensitivity is low to anthropogenic variables", nor do you give any argument why a small deviation from that cut off point could not be argued for as well. And if you assert "warmer planet is good/not a big deal" as a falsification for CAGW, we already have good cause to believe that we've observed that in the past...so if you want that as a falsification criteria, then we can agree that CAGW is both falsifiable *and* has been falsified.

      The count is thirty now for the low climate sensitivity answers, but it now stands at three for the "constellation" question:

      Do you admit that there are peer reviewed papers, supporting the idea of AGW/CAGW, that predict the *opposite* of each other, so that when either observation is made, instead of AGW/CAGW being falsified, we simply assert that the falsified prediction was not in fact necessary to AGW/CAGW?

    137. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Two things: if you actually understood Popper, then you'd realize that a statement of a theory is not the same as finding good tests for the theory.

      Secondly, as a matter of rhetorical style, you must stick to one thing at a time.

      These are such elementary principles of conduct... it should intrigue you why you *don't* do this. Do you believe that, in good faith, you really want to understand these issues?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    138. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      if you actually understood Popper, then you'd realize that a statement of a theory is not the same as finding good tests for the theory.

      I understand that. I'm asserting you're not finding good tests. I'm also asserting that your statements of theory are not falsifiable because you fail to find good tests.

      It is logically possible to make a statement of a theory which is not falsifiable - and you've done so on many an occasion thus far :) It is also logically possible to put together a statement which contains the good tests necessary for a falsifiable theory. I'm asking for the second.

      Secondly, as a matter of rhetorical style, you must stick to one thing at a time.

      I do my best, but you seem to keep ignoring my one thing :) Your dodges are artful, no doubt, but you and I both recognize them for what they are :)

      The count is thirty-one now for the low climate sensitivity answers, but it now stands at four for the "constellation" question:

      Do you admit that there are peer reviewed papers, supporting the idea of AGW/CAGW, that predict the *opposite* of each other, so that when either observation is made, instead of AGW/CAGW being falsified, we simply assert that the falsified prediction was not in fact necessary to AGW/CAGW?

    139. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      I understand that. I'm asserting you're not finding good tests.

      But I'm not talking about good tests yet. One thing at a time.

      I've already stated the reason for this. Remember? I'm not dodging, I'm trying to stop a gish gallop.

      So, before we get to good tests, can we agree what the theory is.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    140. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      But I'm not talking about good tests yet. One thing at a time.

      Six of one, half dozen of another - no good tests, not falsifiable.

      So, before we get to good tests, can we agree what the theory is.

      Sure, I think you got that already, but let me restate just in case:

      1) AGW - the hypothesis that human activity, specifically CO2 emissions, are the cause of measurable increase in the global average temperature beyond natural variation.

      2) CAGW - the hypothesis that human activity, specifically CO2 emissions, are the cause of measurable increase in the global average temperature beyond natural variation that will cause more harm than benefit. Typically asserted as *significantly* more harm than benefit.

      Neither of those should be controversial to you - and neither of those are stated with any sort of falsification criteria, and so cannot be considered containing necessary and sufficient falsification criteria.

      As for a gish gallop, the low sensitivity and "constellation" questions are fairly straightforward.

      The count is thirty-two now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at five for the "constellation" question:

      Do you admit that there are peer reviewed papers, supporting the idea of AGW/CAGW, that predict the *opposite* of each other, so that when either observation is made, instead of AGW/CAGW being falsified, we simply assert that the falsified prediction was not in fact necessary to AGW/CAGW?

    141. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      1) AGW - the hypothesis that human activity, specifically CO2 emissions, are the cause of measurable increase in the global average temperature beyond natural variation.

      2) CAGW - the hypothesis that human activity, specifically CO2 emissions, are the cause of measurable increase in the global average temperature beyond natural variation that will cause more harm than benefit. Typically asserted as *significantly* more harm than benefit.

      Great we can agree on (1) and (2) as statements of the two theories. Praise the Lord. Okay, now are you maintaining that there are no good tests for (1)?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    142. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'll be a bit more gentle - I'm maintaining that you have not shown a set of good tests for #1. They could exist, but thus far, nobody, including yourself, or anyone you've ever quoted, or anyone anyone has ever quoted, has shown a set of good tests for #1.

      You've cited some that are obviously not "good tests" in the Popperian sense (being necessary, but not logically sufficient to discriminate your hypothesis from others), and have hinted that you might in fact have a "good test" with low climate sensitivity, but you haven't put a specific number on it, nor made any sort of logical defense that it should be set at an arbitrary position.

      The count is thirty-three now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at six for the "constellation" question:

      Do you admit that there are peer reviewed papers, supporting the idea of AGW/CAGW, that predict the *opposite* of each other, so that when either observation is made, instead of AGW/CAGW being falsified, we simply assert that the falsified prediction was not in fact necessary to AGW/CAGW?

      Maybe I could put the "constellation" question another way:

      Are you maintaining that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature?

    143. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      So you are saying that (1) is unfalsifiable because there are no good tests for it. Is that your contention? That there is not test for (1) that discriminates between AGW and natural variation. Can we agree that that is your contention.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    144. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm saying that so far, nobody has enumerated a set of good tests for AGW that would discriminate AGW from natural variation. In some ways, this is simply a feature of our ignorance, since any of these observations can be "explained":

      1) CO2 up, temp up - "classic" AGW
      2) CO2 up, temp flat - "hidden heat" ad hoc special pleading to preserve AGW
      3) CO2 up, temp down - "hidden heat" ad hoc special pleading to preserve AGW
      4) CO2 flat, temp up - "lingering effects" AGW
      5) CO2 flat, temp flat - "classic" AGW
      6) CO2 flat, temp down - "hidden heat" ad hoc special pleading to preserve AGW
      7) CO2 down, temp up - "it's worse than we thought" AGW
      8) CO2 down, temp flat - "hidden heat" ad hoc special pleading to preserve AGW
      9) CO2 down, temp down - "classic" AGW

      When you think about it, every combination is possible with natural variation - we've observed every single one of those cases in the historical record. Without precise knowledge about all natural variations, we're quite stuck. Such systems aren't completely impossible to analyze (note the accuracy of tide predictions simply through fourier transforms), but often our analysis is not one that is something that can discriminate individual causes even as it is incredibly accurate and predictive. http://www.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov...

      The count is thirty-four now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at seven for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    145. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      I'm saying that so far, nobody has enumerated a set of good tests for AGW that would discriminate AGW from natural variation.

      Are you saying that good tests may exist, but nobody has explained what they are? Meaning that you believe AGW could be falsifiable, but no-one has explained *how* to test it? Is that the contention?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    146. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Yes. I'm open to the idea that good tests may exist for AGW, but none cited thus far by you, or anyone else I've seen have reached that level. Like any good scientist, I'm open to the refutation of my own hypothesis - all someone has to do is cite a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement to refute my hypothesis that posits the lack thereof :)

      The count is thirty-five now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at eight for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    147. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Yes. I'm open to the idea that good tests may exist for AGW,

      Good.

      but none cited thus far by you

      If you mix points together, then it is possible to know nothing about a subject, but still think of yourself as an expert. Slow down, and the mechanisms of ignorance (in the general sense) find it more difficult to operate.

      So what would AGW rule out? There are a lot of things, but we'll have to go through them one by one for the said reason.

      (A) AGW precludes the absence of a warming trend -- measured at a decadal time-scale. Do you agree that the world has seen warming at a decadal time-scale?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    148. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      (A) AGW precludes the absence of a warming trend -- measured at a decadal time-scale.

      Let's be more specific - AGW should preclude the absence of a warming trend if atmospheric CO2 levels continue to increase, at a decadal time-scale.

      NOAA 2008 came close to this assertion, excluding 15 (or 17) year periods of statistically insignificant warming with rising CO2.

      We've already *observed* this - http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...

      Are we ready to assert AGW has been falsified now? Or do we come up with an ad hoc special pleading to protect the central conceit? From Popper:

      "A clear appreciation of what may be gained (and lost) by con- ventionalist methods was expressed, a hundred years before Poincaré, by Black who wrote: ‘A nice adaptation of conditions will make almost any hypothesis agree with the phenomena. This will please the imagination but does not advance our knowledge.’1"

      Do you agree that the world has seen warming at a decadal time-scale?

      Do you agree that the world has seen an absence of warming at a decadal time-scale while CO2 has continued to increase?

      The count is thirty-six now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at nine for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    149. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      (A) is not a good test, because other things could have caused the warming. But it is necessary.

      Many people deny that there is any warming.

      Make a note about the "statistically insignificant warming", because we will come back to this, and do a regression ourselves... but we have to do one thing at a time, for said reason.

      Okay, so there is some warming. So:

      (B) AGW also precludes the absence of a greenhouse effect. Many deny that there is a greenhouse effect. Do you agree that there is a greenhouse effect?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    150. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Okay, so you proposed a falsification criteria, you've admitted that it was observed. Do you now admit that AGW is falsified?

      Okay, so there is some warming

      Follow along - there is also some lack of warming during a period of rising CO2. If (A) mattered at all to the truth or falsity of AGW, then this singular observation would be enough to falsify it.

      How do you defend AGW in the face of the fact that it *precludes* something that we have observed? *Your* words:

      "AGW precludes the absence of a warming trend"

      We've observed the absence of a warming trend. Q.E.D.

      Or did you have a different definition of "preclude"?

      preclude |priklood|
      verb [ with obj. ]
      prevent from happening; make impossible

      The count is thirty-seven now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at ten for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    151. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, you're straying off topic again. There about a few dozen things to cover in order to describe the tests for AGW. We will do a regression for the past 20 years, and see the results -- but not until we cover the rest of the evidence.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    152. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Not straying off topic at all - just stopping you from your gish gallop away from your statement of a falsification criteria for AGW that has already been observed, therefore falsifying AGW.

      You described a test, and that test has been failed.

      Do you *retract* your statement that "AGW precludes the absence of a warming trend"?

      Or did you have a different definition of "preclude"?

      preclude |priklood|
      verb [ with obj. ]
      prevent from happening; make impossible

      The count is thirty-eight now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at eleven for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    153. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      just stopping you from your gish gallop away

      You really don't know what that means do you.

      (A) is a decadal trend. Less than two decades doesn't make a trend. Still, when (if?) we get to actually doing regressions on surface temp. data, you'll see why its decadal, and also that there hasn't been a pause.

      Again, we'll DO THE MATH OURSELVES, so that you can see first hand.

      Are we ready for (B), or are you going to insist on changing (A) to suit your needs (?)

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    154. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/G...

      "In written form, a Gish Gallop is most commonly observed as a long list of supposed facts or reasons, as a pamphlet or green ink web page, with a title that proudly boasts the number of reasons involved. The individual points must also be fairly terse, so that each point individually can be easy to refute because it simply proves nothing."

      Your words:

      "There about a few dozen things to cover in order to describe the tests for AGW."

      You've boasted about a "few dozen things", and failed to even get your first one right :)

      (A) is a decadal trend. Less than two decades doesn't make a trend.

      If you want to move the bar to 20 years, fine - we've certainly observed rising CO2 and 20 years of statistically insignificant warming in some modern temperature records, and in the long term proxy records as well.

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...

      "For UAH: Since November 1995: CI from -0.001 to 2.501
      For RSS: Since December 1992: CI from -0.005 to 1.968
      For Hadcrut4: Since August 1996: CI from -0.006 to 1.358
      For Hadsst3: Since May 1993: CI from -0.002 to 1.768
      For GISS: Since August 1997: CI from -0.030 to 1.326"

      Your need to move the goalposts here is *classic* ad hoc special pleading, and if you're honest with yourself, you'll admit that you'd be arguing that 25 years isn't enough once we hit that in the modern instrumental record.

      Put simply, you have not established one whit of credibility here with your "precludes" statement - you've made an empty statement, since your preclusion, be it 20 years, or even 100 years, has been observed in the historical record, and your response to that is invariably an ad hoc special pleading.

      Put another way, there is no "A" - properly and honestly stated, the only thing you can defend is this:

      A) AGW does not preclude the absence of a warming trend - it is possible for it to be true no matter what temperature trend is observed over any period of time.

      Unfortunately, since you haven't started forbidding observations, you haven't even begun the process of Popper's falsifiability :)

      The count is thirty-nine now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at twelve for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    155. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, with the gish gallop, arguments are dropped all at once, without giving a person a chance to respond in a reasonable manner. Read it again.

      You are very good an incorporating the *words* people use against you into your arguments. But that is really the horizon of your talents. Your argument strategy is basically to gish gallop loudly and rather crazily until other person walks away shaking their head. And then you think of yourself as intellectually superior, and "logical" -- without any trace of irony.

      HS, about the only thing I managed to teach you was the difference between naive falsification, and finding the "best" theory, and also that Popper was talking about finding good tests, and not iron-clad logical expressions.

      It is my belief that you will just incorporate this true knowledge into your delusions. Of that I am certain.

      If you are interested in actually learning something about AGW then you can have my time. Otherwise, this has been a great reminder for me about the florid manifestations of the mechanisms of denial.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    156. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      HS, with the gish gallop, arguments are dropped all at once, without giving a person a chance to respond in a reasonable manner.

      Well, you went ahead and "proudly boast[ed] the number of reasons involved", instead of actually focusing on the fact that your first reason was self defeating :)

      that Popper was talking about finding good tests

      And your very first one you cited falsified AGW, a marvelous achievement I wish I could take credit for :)

      Or are you saying you were trying to give me a list of *bad* tests for AGW? :)

      Look, it's okay, I get why you're not actually answering the questions put to you - you've already argued yourself into a corner, and you're hoping that by ignoring your prima facie hypocrisy, that it'll just go away. Being ashamed is understandable - even your best way out is an admission of error, since your options are to redefine the word "preclude", or admit that your first proposed "good test" was in fact a bad one.

      Here, you might like this tool when it comes to seeing how long we've gone with statistically insignificant warming:

      http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p...

      Click on "trend+significance" - you'll note that for some datasets, we've already gone well past 20 years (decadal, in your terminology).

      The count is forty now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at thirteen for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    157. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Well, you went ahead and "proudly boast[ed] the number of reasons involved", instead of actually focusing on the fact that your first reason was self defeating :)

      Are you aware of the difference between declaring there are a lot of aguments, and dumping a lot of arguments all at once?

      This is really simple stuff... and that you'd fight about it... just highlights how little self-awareness you have.

      And your very first one you cited falsified AGW, a marvelous achievement I wish I could take credit for :)

      Not in the slightest... because 1.7 data points doesn't make a trend.

      Again this is really simple stuff.

      How old are you?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    158. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Are you aware of the difference between declaring there are a lot of aguments, and dumping a lot of arguments all at once?

      Yes. Are you aware that the first is simply the second, minus the actual work? :)

      You've done a phantom gish gallop, as it were, taking the worst part of the gish gallop, and adding appeal to unnamed authorities on top :)

      Not in the slightest... because 1.7 data points doesn't make a trend.

      What does that mean? You came up with what you thought was a "good test" for AGW. It failed. AGW is now falsified by your definition. Q.E.D. This isn't about data points, this is about *your good test*.

      Look, if you want to have a do-over, fine. Let's simply restate A as "AGW does *not* preclude...", and you can move onto whatever "B" you want to :)

      The count is forty-one now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at fourteen for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    159. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1
      HS, you never even heard of the gish gallop until a few days ago. Now you're inventing the "phantom" gish gallop.

      From rationalwiki:

      The formal debating term for this is spreading. It arose as a way to throw as much rubbish into five minutes as possible.

      Enumerating the arguments one-by-one is the opposite of a gish-gallop.

      Not in the slightest... because 1.7 data points doesn't make a trend.

      What does that mean?

      Do you not know what a decadal trend is?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    160. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      " Eugenie Scott, executive director of the National Center for Science Education, dubbed this approach the "Gish Gallop," describing it as "where the creationist is allowed to run on for 45 minutes or an hour, spewing forth torrents of error that the evolutionist hasn't a prayer of refuting in the format of a debate."[11] She also criticized Gish for failing to answer objections raised by his opponents.[12]"

      Like Gish, you're not only galloping, but you continue to fail to answer the objections raised :)

      The shoe fits, and you're wearing four of them :)

      Do you not know what a decadal trend is?

      You stated, "Less than two decades doesn't make a trend." - so, by your definition, at least 20 years is required.

      Here's the data:

      http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p...

      Click on "trend+significance" to see the statistically insignificant areas greyed out.

      Click on MSU.RSS

      Note the greyed out triangular area beneath the 19 year diagonal line to the lower right of the triangle graph. You'll note there are more than 1.7 points in that data set :)

      Now, do you want to have an ad hoc special pleading against specific data sets? Are you unwilling to concede your previously stated "good test" because you doubt the data?

      The count is forty-two now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at fifteen for the "constellation" question. Your Gish Gallop is reaching epic proportions :)

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    161. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      HS, getting you to agree to each argument one-by-one is the opposite of 'spewing forth torrents of errors"

      Do you have any oblique awareness that you are batshit insane?

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    162. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      "She also criticized Gish for failing to answer objections raised by his opponents.[12]"

      You've made an argument. I made an objection. You've refused to answer.

      Your argument: the following is a "good test":

      (A) AGW precludes the absence of a warming trend -- measured at a decadal time-scale.

      decadal is defined as at least 20 years, by your definition (Your words: "Less than two decades doesn't make a trend.")

      My objection:

      http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p...

      We already have observations showing no statistically significant trend for 20+ years in some temperature data sets.

      Your response:

      Now, you could respond in any number of ways:

      1) don't like the data set I've chosen
      2) didn't really mean 20 years, really meant 30 years
      3) didn't really mean "preclude"
      4) don't care about statistical significance, just care about the trend regardless of error bars
      5) didn't really mean (A), let's move on to (B)

      Instead, what do we get? "Do you have any oblique awareness that you are batshit insane?" Classy, real classy :)

      I know it hurts that you've used "gish gallop" as an insult, and find yourself tarred by that brush. I'm sure you didn't intend to fit the shoes of Duane Gish when you decided to use that phrase as an insult. But you did. You've bragged about how many reasons you had, and then stumbled on the very first one out of the gate - and still, post after post after post, you've got no actual reply to the criticism of your argument.

      The kind of behavior you're exhibiting is why I tend to lump AGW proponents with creationists - they behave in the same way.

      The count is forty-three now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at sixteen for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    163. Re:Not everything observed... by microbox · · Score: 1

      Your argument: the following is a "good test":

      Actually, I said it was a test, but not a "good test". Go back and read it.

      Also, I said 20 years does not a decadal trend make. (It doesn't.)

      Also, I said we'd swing back to the last 20 years... and do the regression ourselves together. The reason for this is that there is some theory we'd have to agree to first..

      You've made an argument. I made an objection. You've refused to answer.

      One thing at a time. Got to stop *your* gish galloping. If you did this, then in theory we could cover everything.

      If, and only if, you reply in a mature fashion, we can continue this discussion.

      --

      Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    164. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Actually, I said it was a test, but not a "good test". Go back and read it.

      If you're asserting it's not a "good test", then what does it matter? You found a test AGW failed. Can you find tests it *hasn't* failed? :)

      Also, I said 20 years does not a decadal trend make.

      No, to quote you *exactly*, you said, "Less than two decades doesn't make a trend."

      Two decades (20 years), last time I checked, is *not* less than 2 decades. Perhaps you count years differently? :) Or perhaps you weren't done defining "a trend"? Like Duane Gish, you left yourself some wiggle room - the statement "less than two decades doesn't make a trend" is logically compatible with "less than 31 years doesn't make a trend".

      So, in your definition, does a decadal trend take 21 years? 22 years? 30 years? 100 years? Care to be precise at all, or will you continue to Gish Gallop away from actually *defending your argument*? :)

      Also, I said we'd swing back to the last 20 years... and do the regression ourselves together.

      So, are you now insisting that I can't just find *any* 20 year, statistically insignificant warming trend within the industrial age, but it has to be specifically cherry picked to the *last* 20 years?

      Look, I showed you the data: http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p...

      Are you going to argue that the dataset isn't proper? Is that the ad hoc special pleading you have left? :)

      Here, from MSU.RSS, the last 20 years, minus 3 months (perhaps you'd be so generous as to grant me three months of reprieve from your cherry pick). :
      Temperature Anomaly trend
      Feb 1993 to Dec 2013
      Rate: 0.859C/Century;
      CI from -0.105 to 1.823;
      t-statistic 1.747;
      Temp range 0.110C to 0.289C

      Statistically insignificant warming trend.

      Look, if you want to argue your point (A) further, you've got to make a stand and argue with the data, or limit your specification of what AGW *precludes* with more ad hoc special pleadings. Do yourself a favor, and instead of gish galloping away, just pick one of the data sets that hasn't reached 20 years of statistically insignificant warming, and insist that *that* is your gold standard. At least then we can agree that you've come up with a test that hasn't been falsified yet - and we can come back to why we should cherry pick a dataset for your test after you've gone through more points :)

      "She also criticized Gish for failing to answer objections raised by his opponents.[12]"

      I've given you my objection, and I've given you at least *one* fairly defensible way out (pick your preferred dataset, and be prepared to defend it against the ones you don't like). You can either continue dodging specificity, or you can stake your (A) claim on a specific dataset, and move onto B. I've given you the data for trends, so go ahead, pick the one you think is the most favorable to your cause.

      The count is forty-five now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at eighteen for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

    165. Re:Not everything observed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      HS, I've actually answered all of your questions already, but you are obviously having trouble reading what I'm writing. Furthermore, I'm out of sympathy for you. If you are young, just giving you a heads up that you are probably destined for a psychotic episode. Best learn what that is ASAP. Good luck.

    166. Re:Not everything observed... by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      HS, I've actually answered all of your questions already

      Now, that's quite a Gish Gallop!

      I know, even though you haven't actually answered the questions *directly*, or *well*, as per Duane Gish and other creationists' logic, you've *answered* back at me, even though your answers made no reference to the actual questions given :)

      "She also criticized Gish for failing to answer objections raised by his opponents.[12]"

      You've made a point (A). I've raised objections. I've given you a range of legitimate and defensible responses to those objections that were more than sympathetic to your point of view. You've chosen instead to Gishy Gish, and instead of actually answering *questions*, you've simply asserted those answers exist...somewhere...out there... :)

      We'll call this the "microbox mambo" in honor of you :) The agile ability to dodge answering any directly line of questioning in order to preserve the illusion of correctness :)

      The funny thing, is you *get* what a Gish Gallop is. You understand how Duane Gish was a git, and somehow, you've imbued the worst part of his rhetoric directly into your thinking about AGW. You can fully grok exactly how wrong Duane Gish was when he refused to answer objections directly, and instead bounced through his list...your innovation is that you haven't even *provided* the list, but just refuse, time and time again, to actually *answer* a question.

      The count is forty-six now for the low climate sensitivity answers, and it now stands at nineteen for the "constellation" question.

      Can we agree that your contention is that there are no contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature, and that you furthermore contend there exist thus far unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation?

      Here, I'll channel you psychically and give your answer for you:

      microbox: "Of course there are contradictory predictions in the name of AGW/CAGW in the peer reviewed literature. Although obviously this is like 'heads I win, tails you lose', I believe that someone, given enough time, could collect, *beforehand*, all of the *good* peer reviewed literature in defense of AGW/CAGW. And to answer your next question, no, I'm not going to do it for you, and yes, I do take this as a matter of faith, just as I take it as a matter of faith that there do exist unspecified good tests to discriminate AGW from natural variation. It's not my job to be an expert, it's my job to believe in experts, and I've chosen to believe them. Yes, this is an argument from unspecified authorities, but just because it's a logical fallacy doesn't mean I'm wrong. It bothers me that you point out my hypocrisy with the scientific method, but not so much as to make me give up my belief system."

      There, now was that so hard? :)

  3. Romans by Etherwalk · · Score: 1

    Lead! The Romans used the stuff for pipes, and so did we in the fifties. We use graphite in pencils now, so we don't use it there. Where do we use lead these days? Nuclear containment and superman films? (And probably illegal Manhattan plumbing repairs, where legacy systems would be impractical to replace)

    1. Re:Romans by Alsn · · Score: 4, Informative

      Pencils never contained lead though. It's a misunderstanding from when graphite was discovered back in the 16th century and people thought it was a type of lead and called it "black lead" or "plumbago".

    2. Re:Romans by dugancent · · Score: 1

      The only common and modern lead items I that I can think of are fishing sinkers, car batteries and tire balancing weights. I've seen electronic devices with lead to give weight.

      --
      SJWs are the new boogeyman. -Me
    3. Re:Romans by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 2

      Pencils never contained lead though. It's a misunderstanding from when graphite was discovered back in the 16th century and people thought it was a type of lead and called it "black lead" or "plumbago".

      Actually the paint that was used on pencils contained lead in the past. Considering how many kids chewed on pencils in grade school, this wasn't the best idea.

    4. Re:Romans by ThatAblaze · · Score: 1

      We still use lead in some electrical solder, although it is rather discouraged today. Most old electronics, therefor, contain led in their circuitry and thus have a chance of releasing it when they are disposed of. Some vehicle's windshields have lead embedded into the glass. Exercise equipment can sometimes contain lead weights.

      It pops up all over the place. It's not quite as harmful, though, if you aren't burning it.

    5. Re:Romans by QilessQi · · Score: 2

      It's doubtful that the Romans introduced much lead into the water. from http://penelope.uchicago.edu/~...:

      ...rain water is slightly acidic, having dissolved carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to form a weak solution of carbonic acid, which in turn reacts with calcium hydroxide to form calcium carbonate. which .Rome is situated on sedimentary calcareous soil, and the frequent cleaning of limestone encrustation (which accumulated approximately one millimeter per year) suggests that deposits of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) in the pipes protected against corrosion and insulated against the introduction of lead into the water

       

    6. Re:Romans by wisnoskij · · Score: 1

      I find it hard to believe that anyone could confuse graphite for anything reassembling a metal.

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    7. Re:Romans by viperidaenz · · Score: 1

      Until the recent explosion of LCD, TV screens contain a lot of lead. (CRT)
      Now they're worthless, people are throwing them away.

    8. Re:Romans by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 4, Funny

      It's OK, those kids studied law and became politicians.

      Oh wait...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    9. Re:Romans by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's doubtful that the Romans introduced much lead into the water. from http://penelope.uchicago.edu/~...:

      ...rain water is slightly acidic, having dissolved carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to form a weak solution of carbonic acid, which in turn reacts with calcium hydroxide to form calcium carbonate. which .Rome is situated on sedimentary calcareous soil, and the frequent cleaning of limestone encrustation (which accumulated approximately one millimeter per year) suggests that deposits of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) in the pipes protected against corrosion and insulated against the introduction of lead into the water

      The Roman Empire stretched far beyond Rome, just FYI, and they smelted a LOT of lead all over the place. The lead contamination they cause was not runoff from corroding pipes, it was from the actual smelters themselves. Lead used to be used for all sorts of things, pewter was a lead-clay mixture for example, and lead itself was considered almost as useful as gold in many applications. The point being that our civilization was not the first to use lead widely nor pollute widely, but many people who get worked up about the environment tend to not know much about history prior to the Industrial Revolution.

    10. Re:Romans by dead_user · · Score: 2

      Boat keels are usually made of lead. In order to counter the weight above CG, massive amounts of weight are added to the keel as low as possible. Sailboats use more lead per foot than powerboats but powerboats and vessels such as barges are absolutely massive. Boats are basically massive Weeble Wobbles. http://www.ebay.com/bhp/weeble-wobbles/

      Being at the lowest part of the vessel and constantly in the water, keels are prone to blistering, leaching, and sometimes they just fall off. All this is just left in the sea. The other amazing thing is the amount of copper these boats go through. Most bottom paints are 50-75% copper. All the copper is leached out in about 2 years in southern climes, 5 years in northern. Most 35' sailboats take 1.5 - 2 gallons per bottom. That's 30 lbs of copper per sailboat every two years. Gone. Wow. A typical boat also eats about 5 pounds of zinc a year in sacrificial anodes, but zinc is cheap, so who cares.

    11. Re:Romans by pspahn · · Score: 2
      Do you?

      I'm not sure about the reassembling part. I don't think it is capable of that without maybe some extreme heat and pressure or something.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    12. Re:Romans by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      However, the taste does make one think, so it's kind of a wash right?

    13. Re:Romans by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The Roman Empire stretched far beyond Rome, just FYI, and they smelted a LOT of lead all over the place. The lead contamination they cause was not runoff from corroding pipes, it was from the actual smelters themselves.

      You don't know the half of it.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    14. Re:Romans by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Soldier in places that wish to avoid tin whiskers.

    15. Re:Romans by rwise2112 · · Score: 1

      Do you?

      I'm not sure about the reassembling part. I don't think it is capable of that without maybe some extreme heat and pressure or something.

      Good point. And actually comparing it to lead ore shows it's not that different.

      --

      "For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert"
    16. Re:Romans by rwise2112 · · Score: 2

      Don't forget about ammunition.

      --

      "For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert"
    17. Re:Romans by deadweight · · Score: 1

      Not sure if you have been eating the bottom paint or what, but lead keels do NOT blister or leach AT ALL. That is one reason we like them, as opposed to crappy iron keels that rust and spall all the paint off. My boat is 40 years old and I have had exactly zero problems with my 5,000 pound lead keel in all that time. Also note that lead ballasted powerboats are very rare and lead ballasted barges do not exist.

    18. Re:Romans by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Then there must be a lot of politicians posting on Slashdot these days.

    19. Re:Romans by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Imagine the surprise when they tried to smelt graphite by mistake.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    20. Re:Romans by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Try TIX solder for electronics. Not sure how much lead is in it (it's partly silver and iridium) but it's easier to manipulate, melts at a lower temp, and becomes very hard but not brittle. (I used to work for the outfit that made it.)

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
  4. "Once widely emitted"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

    a pollutant once widely emitted by cars burning leaded gasoline. Decades ago, the United States and Europe banned leaded gas and many other uses of the metal

    Do you really think the US and Europe account for the majority of vehicles? I'm pretty sure places like China and India wouldn't give a shit about using leaded gas and leaded metal still - their environmental standards aren't exactly great compared to Western standards (and despite our own flaws and corruption, we at least still have better environmental standards so no US bashing please).

    1. Re:"Once widely emitted"? by Warphammer · · Score: 2

      You essentially can't use leaded gas if you care more than the slightest bit about air quality. Lead deposits wreck catalytic converters, which are important for cleaning up exhausts. And there are adequate if not great replacements for lead's anti-knock qualities... And we're really good at making hardened valve seats these days, so you don't need that either.

    2. Re:"Once widely emitted"? by bob_super · · Score: 1

      RoHS effect... When you can't sell something to the US or Europe, you tend to use the same things that you sell to them, because producing two things costs more.

    3. Re: "Once widely emitted"? by qinjuehang · · Score: 1

      China's CO2 gas emissions per capita are about a third of that from the US. If you consider that China's industry probably contributes significantly more than their automobiles, it shouldn't be hard to realise that the summary was probably right. In America almost every family can afford cars. Not true in most Asian societies. (Yes there are exceptions, such as Singapore, hence I said most.)

    4. Re:"Once widely emitted"? by Algae_94 · · Score: 3, Informative

      a pollutant once widely emitted by cars burning leaded gasoline. Decades ago, the United States and Europe banned leaded gas and many other uses of the metal

      Do you really think the US and Europe account for the majority of vehicles?

      Yes I do. It's not extremely lop sided, but there are more vehicles in Europe and the US combined than there are in China and India combined. I'd also throw all the cars in Japan under the US/Europe column for not using leaded gas.

    5. Re: "Once widely emitted"? by FunkDup · · Score: 2

      In America almost every family can afford cars. Not true in most Asian societies. (Yes there are exceptions, such as Singapore, hence I said most.)

      I don't know how many people in Singapore can actually afford a car but I can tell you that the certificate required to own a car costs $93k for 10 years and the cost of the car can be as much as triple that of a "Western" nation. A lot of people catch cabs.

      --
      Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds -- Albert Einstein
    6. Re: "Once widely emitted"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      China has over three times the population of the US, so it still produces a lot more pollution. They are also the top automaker in the world, so their automobile use is increasing. They had to shut down factories during the Olympics in order to have somewhat decent air quality. Even though LA has shitting air quality by US standards, they didn't have to shut the city down in 1984 when it had the Games.

    7. Re: "Once widely emitted"? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      China has over three times the population of the US, so it still produces a lot more pollution. They are also the top automaker in the world, so their automobile use is increasing.

      They also make castings for engines assembled in America by people like International-Navistar. Hey, International is right there in the name, don't look so surprised! Fact is, most of our pollution has been exported to China. Unfortunately, it comes right back. Fortunately for me, it comes back more to SoCal than NoCal. Most days there's more Chinese pollution in LA than local stuff. The CARB worked, but it didn't solve the global problem.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    8. Re: "Once widely emitted"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Fact is, most of our pollution has been exported to China."
       
      Not a fact. The single largest contributor to air pollution is transportation, followed by electricity generation. Can't export those.

    9. Re: "Once widely emitted"? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      "Fact is, most of our pollution has been exported to China."

      Not a fact. The single largest contributor to air pollution is transportation

      Only if you include shipping, because container ships run on bunker fuel. And guess where the shipping is coming from?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  5. Dredge it up, bottle it, sell it by ackthpt · · Score: 2

    Slusho - You Can't Drink Just Six!

    What's the worst that could happen?

    <_<

    --

    A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
  6. leaded gas by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 1

    I never understood why leaded gasoline was cheaper than unleaded back when both were for sale. They actually added the lead. I also don't understand why lead additives are still allowed.

    1. Re:leaded gas by JazzHarper · · Score: 1

      In the 1920's and 30's, "ethyl" (leaded gasoline) was the more expensive grade. By the 1940s, virtually all gasoline contained TEL and manufacturers designed engines with higher compression ratios to take advantage of the fuel. So, by the 1970s, unleaded gasoline required more expensive octane boosters to work in modern engines.

      Today, lead additives for vehicle fuel are banned in almost all countries.

    2. Re:leaded gas by gewalker · · Score: 1

      If you don't use lead, you have to raise octane in ways that are more expensive, more highly refined gas and more expensive octane raising additives are your options, both are more expensive than using lead.

      Back in the 70's, there was an additional factor. Existing infrastructure used lead to raise octane rating -- there were transition costs and some scarcity during the transition away from lead. And of course, as a new product, you can generally charge that otherwise.

    3. Re:leaded gas by Carnildo · · Score: 1

      I never understood why leaded gasoline was cheaper than unleaded back when both were for sale. They actually added the lead.

      Because "unleaded" is a misleading name. There have been three major types of gasoline over the years:

      1) Raw gasoline: unmodified crude-oil distillates. This is one of the original automobile fuels, and had a varying octane rating; this made building high-performance engines difficult.

      2) Leaded gasoline: crude-oil distillates with Tetraethyl lead added to raise and stabilize the octane rating.

      3) Unleaded gasoline: crude-oil distillates with additives other than tetraethyl lead used to raise and stabilize the octane rating.

      --
      "They redundantly repeated themselves over and over again incessantly without end ad infinitum" -- ibid.
    4. Re:leaded gas by danbert8 · · Score: 1

      Not to mention that the original replacement for TEL was MTBE http://www.epa.gov/mtbe/gas.ht... which is still in use in limited quantities. MTBE has been largely replaced with ethanol for octane boosting. Ethanol is pretty cheap compared to MTBE, but it carries large government subsides.

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
  7. any way to pump that lead-infused seawater into th by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    just asking

  8. Bullets by PPH · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Looking at TFA maps, the highest concentration appears to be in the outflow from the Mediterranean. That's probably a result of all the wars fought over there.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
    1. Re:Bullets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Looking at TFA maps, the highest concentration appears to be in the outflow from the Mediterranean. That's probably a result of all the wars fought over there.

      No, it's the large concentration of coal fired plants. Once they survey the Indian Ocean, they'll find even higher concentrations of lead around the Chinese coast.

    2. Re:Bullets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It might also be because the Nile Volga Don and Danube drain into it (among others) and much of the water evaporates, so concentrating levels. There's actually a net inflow from the Atlantic, so even without river runoff the low-level outflow is more concentrated.

  9. Case Study in Environmental Law by retroworks · · Score: 5, Informative

    Banning lead gasoline - Best environmental law ever passed. Lower blood lead levels in kids, higher test scores, less crime in cities.

    Banning lead in solder - Worst environmental law ever passed. Lead in solder never escaped in the environment, was at worst destined for a lined landfill. Was replaced by dredging coral reef islands for TIN and SILVER (the alternatives to lead). Tin and Silver have very low recycled content, the lead was 85% recycled content.

    I'm very pro environment, very pro scientific method. The unintentional consequences of the success of lead gasoline bans were stupid tin mining in coral islands to divert solid solder from rich nations lined landfills.

    --
    Gently reply
    1. Re:Case Study in Environmental Law by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They simply haven't gone far enough; ban electronics. No need for tin and silver then.

    2. Re:Case Study in Environmental Law by jafac · · Score: 0

      150 years from now, we'll be saying that banning CO2 was the best environmental law we ever passed.
      Or, we'll be saying, "maybe tomorrow, if we can finish crossing this wasteland, we'll find an abandoned town we can scavenge some food from"... "or at least some ammo."

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
    3. Re:Case Study in Environmental Law by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Don't believe the hype. EU and Japanese companies have managed to source alternatives to leaded solder without dredging coral reef islands. As far as I can tell it's just unscrupulous people making money out of the situation and some propaganda from opponents of RoHS, and hardly common practice for supplying lead free solder to the billions of products that use it every year.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    4. Re:Case Study in Environmental Law by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Says the man on a computer.

    5. Re: Case Study in Environmental Law by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except a new 'environmental' fad these days is to build incinerators to burn urban trash and generate some electricity, usually not that far from residential areas.

      Guess where a lot of solder is ending up?

    6. Re:Case Study in Environmental Law by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Banning lead in solder - Worst environmental law ever passed. Lead in solder never escaped in the environment, was at worst destined for a lined landfill. Was replaced by dredging coral reef islands for TIN and SILVER (the alternatives to lead). Tin and Silver have very low recycled content, the lead was 85% recycled content.

      My understanding was lead was added to solder to prevent tin whiskers. The result of the ban is RoHS compliant devices have a much shorter lifespan. Some things I've read indicate there may be other ways to avoid tin whiskers than adding lead, but I'm unsure of how feasible those approaches are...

    7. Re: Case Study in Environmental Law by retroworks · · Score: 1

      Modern shredders have magnets which remove metals at the front end. It's true that older incinerators capture the metal post burn, which would free the solder. But the smokestack emmissions are pretty well monitored and I don't recall seeing lead pb in incinerator smoke, but I'm not sure. Using devices for longer, however, is by far the best method, and that's what the Africans do better than anyone else.

      --
      Gently reply
  10. pretty map meaningless without scale by confused+one · · Score: 1

    Pretty heat map means nothing without a scale. It shows some outflow of some amount of lead based chemicals (paint, tetra ethyl lead, metallic lead, whatever); but, without a scale there is no indication of the amounts. It might be parts per trillion, DAQ counts above measurable background derived from spectral analysis using a crappy camera, % change in mass relative to a neutron star, anything really.

    1. Re:pretty map meaningless without scale by director_mr · · Score: 1

      They clearly state how much lead is shown: "The lead concentrations are roughly equivalent to what you’d get if you dissolved a small spoonful of frozen orange juice in 200 Olympic-sized swimming pools, Noble estimates" Of course, they never identify how much lead is in frozen orange juice, so I take my statement back.

    2. Re:pretty map meaningless without scale by Tailhook · · Score: 1

      anything really

      That's why they put words next to the pictures.

      The lead concentrations are roughly equivalent to what you’d get if you dissolved a small spoonful of frozen orange juice in 200 Olympic-sized swimming pools

      The "small spoonful of frozen orange juice" is too ambiguous to use directly, so I'll just fill a teaspoon with solid lead. Given 5.014×10^34 atoms of water in 200x 2.5E6 L Olympic pools (Wikipedia) and 1.62E23 atoms of lead in a teaspoon, you have 3 atoms of lead per trillion molecules of water.

      Sure to panic homeopaths everywhere. The EPA actionable drinking water limit for lead is 15 parts per billion; three orders of magnitude higher.

      --
      Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
    3. Re:pretty map meaningless without scale by Solandri · · Score: 1

      Here's a random cross section from the site linked to in TFA. Lead concentrations average about 25-30 pmol/kg. Which if I've done my math right (1 kg of water = about 55 moles of H2O) is about 0.5 parts per trillion.

  11. Re:fukushima by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Of course the oceans are big enough, if you could guarantee even mixing. You could dump a thousand years worth of uranium produced at curring mining rates, and only change the amount of uranium in the oceans by 1%. Lead might be a tad different even in the idealistic assumption of perfect mixing, considering we mine up hundred times as much a year as uranium, and the oceans normally have a factor of hundred less lead than uranium, and we're a lot less careful with lead.

  12. More opinioned rubish by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What biased rubbish. No scientific proof of anything other than the obvious angry, mentally disturbed writer.

    Long live Slashdot.

  13. Beware of history repeating!!! by zaroastra · · Score: 0

    Unnecessary worldwide poisoning with lead through car gasoline (known to be neurotoxic for hundreths of years) still happens today in some parts of the world.
    Read http://www.todayifoundout.com/... to see how we really don't deserve the name gaven to our species...

    Nowadays, jet fuel, maybe even on purpose for solar management geo engineering (even unilateral as per CFR recomendations), is leaking all kinds of bizarre particulates all over the world.

    There is a heated discussion on whether what we now see almost on a daily basis are contrails or chemtrails. Who cares! Just don't poison us!
    What matters is that this is relatively new worldwide phenomenon ( less than a decade), and tests have proven that air quality is degrading everywhere.
    Why not being more proactive, and make sure that whatever they add to the jet formulas is safe?
    Look up, next time you see a nice sun shiny day turn to a misty, smoggy, gray day from air traffic, remember it took almost a century to ban lean in car gasoline. Do you feel safe?
    Z

    --
    I'm trying to get modded "Interesting Flamebait Informative and Insightful Redundant Troll" *-* Please Help *-*
  14. Climate change? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Sorry, this started out interesting, but then the summary said something about climate change. Now I have a hard time believing lead even exists. And if you prove to me that it does, I will claim that volcanoes are spewing out a hundred times more of the stuff than all human activities. And if you tell me that is bullshit, well, then I'm already over in some other thread doubting lead's existence again.

  15. Re:fukushima by Evtim · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "The solution to pollution is dilution" - man, that was one big lie, wasn't it? It started dying with this [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamata_Bay].

    More than 15 years ago I was involved in such study and already at that time it was understood that the water might be safe for drinking but should you eat fish from it you are in trouble. The operative word here is "bio accumulation". I was working on a project commissioned by the [much smaller] EU at the time to readjust the safety levels of heavy metals in marine and river waters. We worked along the south-west coast of France and north-west cost of Spain. You know what's funny - because of the importance of our finds which would lead to legislation change we worked "under cover" .I am not kidding. A fishing boat was used with an analytical lab on board but we would always say on the radio we were fishermen. Even to the people that direct the traffic in harbors. We were told not to say to anyone what we research. I think the very fact that such measures were taken on a EU project no less, says something...something that is not nice.

    However, your particular anger is not warranted in this case, IMO. The radioactive material form that disaster is truly insignificant compared to the heavy metal pollution from everything else. I am not saying that we should close our eyes and mouths of course...

  16. Hyperbolic rhetoric ALWAYS = BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    First, we know nothing of the pre-industrial-age state of the oceans.

    Second, lead occurs naturally in the Earth and water that filters through that Earth picks up lead (anybody here from LEADVILLE Colorado?)

    Third, what are the levels that are demonstrated to be harmful (by having some human actually hurt, rather than by spooking a "soccer mom" and causing her to feel anxious) and what are the levels detected in the ocean? Once youve compare these two items, then ask the question that matters: What would it take to change things enough to matter, and would that be cost-effective?

    Fourth, As our instruments get better and better, and as researchers seeking grants get more desperate to find ecological disasters that require the IMMEDIATE, EMERGENCY deployment of research grants, we can find traces of "harmful" things everywhere up to and including even NASA's best cleanrooms.

    Fifth, there's no proof that our use of lead caused the levels seen in the ocean... it could simply be that our mining activities churned-up more lead-laden soils and rain waters washing through that made it to the sea (as most water does). We used to use lead solder to solder water-carrying pipes all over the world... that's an IMMENSE quantity of water that went through pipes at some point before going to the seas that might have picked up lead THAT way. I'm NOT insisting that either of these are what happened, just asserting that there might be any number of explanations for some portion, or all, of the lead detected that do not fit the narrative being pushed by these people.

    Guess what, boys and girls... NEARLY EVERYTHING (including pure H2O) will kill you if you injest too much. More importantly: human beings DID NOT EVOLVE IN A SCIENCE LAB CLEAN ROOM WITH WATER PURIFIERS AND HEPA AIR FILTERS. In fact, it is entirely possible that if you raised a human in a perfectly clean pure environment with perfect clean air, perfect clean food and perfect clean water, that human would die a horrible death. We already KNOW that children raised with "dirty" pets are less vulnerable to allergies (for example) and AFAIK nobody has documented and proven just how much of the various substances we need, like various minerals, we absorb in various ways from our environment without even knowing it. Our modern society has spent BILLIONS of dollars scrubbing lead from electronics, without any evidence that anybody had ever been hurt by the lead in (for example) their computers (which, unlike leaded gas, involve no combustion) based primarily on [1] the harm poor children suffered from EATING leaded paint and [2] the harm it was asserted would occur when we put that lead back into the ground (where it originally CAME from) when those electronics get destroyed. Remember: lead is an element; it's NOT manmade, and (unlike some elements) it occurs in large deposits all over the planet. NOBODY considered that it might have been cheaper and more beneficial to spend fewer dollars simply lifting children out of poverty, or teaching people to feed their hungry kids so they would not peel paint off the walls and eat it. Nobody wanted to face the fact that lead-free solder is a poor replacement for leaded-solder, but this will probably get some notice when an airliner goes down someday with avionics that shorted-out from tin wiskers (those tiny crystallized structures that grow in lead-free electronics and form new random cat-whisker-like connections).

  17. perhaps not by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Lead was used in gasoline, in-part, as a lubricant in the parts of the engine where you did not want oil. It reduced the wear-and-tear on engines when the tech was older and there were not many good alternatives... and lots of Americans lost economic value they never recovered when they were railroaded into the 1st generation of cars that required "unleaded" gas. Those cars were often crappy machines (that cost as much or more than the older ones but did not last as long) that needed to be replaced early; cars are one of the biggest capital expenses families face after houses and that was money those families never got back (leaving them less for education, retirement, etc).

    Also, many tests of kids have been dumbed-down over the past 40 or so years. They started by dumbing-down tests in the K-12 schools, then during the nineties they dumbed-down the SAT. They subsequently even re-scaled the SAT scores (1600 USED to be a perfect score). You simply cannot do a straight 1964-to-2014 comparison now for example. Yes, you MAY find lower lead levels in kids blood these days but you also probably find lower levels of radioactive substances (we tested lots of nukes above ground in the 1950's and into the 60's) and indeed MANY other things have changed (like moms all-over America stuffing their kids full of multi-vitamins) and you COULD even point out that [1] kids used to be under-nourished in poor neighborhoods but now tend to be over-nourished thanks to government food programs (food stamps, school lunches, etc) and [2] kids are drinking lots more fizzy drinks now than they used to ... so maybe fizzy drinks are having a positive effect.

    I hate the way our modern societey has been replacing science with statistics; it's a dumbing-down of science that disregards the causation---corellation problem and can lead to LOTS of junk conclusions if not very carefully controlled for

    1. Re:perhaps not by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Lead was used in gasoline, in-part, as a lubricant in the parts of the engine where you did not want oil.

      For valves and seats. You can say it with me: valves and seats. No other part of the engine but the cylinder walls themselves are touched by fuel, and they are not in the best case. They, of course, are lubricated by oil. Tetraethyl lead's primary purpose, though, was as an octane booster. Today we use ethanol or MTBE. MTBE is almost magically toxic, it's worse than lead in spills and it is readily absorbed through skin. It improves combustion, however, so when burned it's clean, unlike burning lead. Ethanol is hygroscopic so it makes gas spoil faster, and it attacks natural seals, and you can't use as much of it in fuel without significant changes so you can't diddle octane with it as much as using MTBE.

      In fact the lead didn't "lubricate" the seats, it protected them in other ways. Now we have hardened valves and seats and there is no. reason. whatsoever to run leaded fuel. Hardened valves and seats were made available for all the interesting engines of the day, or implemented by manufacturers themselves. The Ford 351W predates the changeover but was still used after. Mopar built a whole fleet of new engines around that time anyway, for example moving from the big-block 318 to the small-block 318. Chevrolet updated their engines without problems. You're talking nonsense. Chevy was still making the 350 until just a decade ago or so.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  18. Re: Hype? Case Study in Environmental Law by retroworks · · Score: 1

    Businessweek - A third of all tin comes from Bangka. http://www.businessweek.com/ar... Bangka tin mines were opened to supply deleaded solder. The point is that the environmental cost of extraction is nearly always more significant than the environmental cost of exposure. Environmental laws that consider only the "end of pipe" without considering lifecycle costs are to environmentalism what mercury laxative was to medicine (very effective if all you care about is an excellent crapping experience)

    80% of lead supply is recycled content, the alternative (tin) must be mined. I thought the hype was that we'd be significantly safer with solid tin solder in lined capped landfills than we would be with leaded solder in lined capped landfills. What ROHS did was take a very minor, negligible risk from rich nations and displace the environmental costs to a hugely impactful practice (tin dredging) in developing nations, and label it "green" and give environmental awards with no study of the consequences upstream.

    Want an organic, non-toxic raw material? Baby seal pelts. If all you care about is the final disposal effect, mercury made a great laxative. Primum non nocere

    --
    Gently reply
  19. The Romans are gone by mdsolar · · Score: 2

    The Romans used lead to flavor food. But they ended up collapsing. We can understand that now. Lead in gasoline explains the crime wave of the seventies. http://www.motherjones.com/env...

  20. and they know? by SuperDre · · Score: 1

    And they know for sure it's because of the burning of leaded fuel and not a natural cause? This is just speculation that it's from polution, it might be true, but it also might not.. no real evidence to prove it..

    1. Re:and they know? by Reziac · · Score: 1

      I had the same question -- how much is natural leeching? have any of these traces been tracked back to sources?

      I'd think lead from bullets (if any) would drain more northward, given where most of the shootin' wars were fought.

      Where I used to live, the ground was more-than-average radioactive. Blame got pointed at the air force base, but... no. Truth is, the area is lousy with uranium deposits.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
  21. Yeah, right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I want to see some proof of their claim. Typical B.S. where somebody finds something and blames it on destructive humans. Yet these greenies aren't willing to 'off' themselves to make the planet better for everyone else. Al Gore is a good example.

  22. Re:fukushima by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "The solution to pollution is dilution" - man, that was one big lie, wasn't it?

    The solution to pollution is dilution. The problem is knowing what amount of dilution is reasonable, and at some industrial levels there is going to be waste that will do damage because you can't achieve that dilution in any reasonable or safe way. It doesn't mean you can dump what you want where you want, but there are some cases where it won't matter. If you dump a pound of sodium chloride in the ocean, it won't be a big deal as long as you don't hit some animal on the head, and it is not something you're going to repeat thousands or millions of times. Dumping a pound of lead is a different story, since it could end up being a significant change for a kilometer away from where you dump it. This is important for making realistic environmental limits on what people and companies will do, increasing the likelihood that laws will be followed. A company can't go dumping millions of pounds of salt or fertilizer in a river, but there is some level where the amount added is insignificant with realistic mixing, whether that amount is parts per thousand or parts per billion. It is the difference between telling them to take reasonable efforts to clean up or filter out problematic stuff, versus spending insane amounts of money to make sure everything is at homeopathic levels.

  23. you're missing the point by confused+one · · Score: 1

    You're missing the point. I could have gone and gotten the journal article or gone to the Geotraces site myself as well. In fact, you'll notice one of my options was PPT. Science is doing a disservice by publishing graphs with no scale for reference and of all people, they should know better. You're not supposed to do that, ever. There was an article in a different publication not two days ago showing the trace cesium in the ocean currents that could be attributed to Fukushima. It was done in all scary dark reds and oranges, scaled for maximum impact, and the chart was widely circulated in the mass media. In reality, the trace amounts are barely detectable and insignificant all the way back to the Japanese coastline (except for right next to the accident site). I'm dealing with customers who are concerned about contamination levels around 3 PPB. Current technology allows us to see better than PPT. Maps like this amount to "Hey, we can see something" but don't put it into any context, scientific or otherwise.

  24. "Trace" amounts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They're talking about lab coats and extensive efforts to prevent contamination of the samples so they must be measuring in insanely low concentrations. I completely agree that we shouldn't be dumping anything into the ocean/air but these materials do exist naturally (lead, uranium, etc). It would be helpful to know what their occurrence is naturally and THEN know how much human activity has contributed to it.

  25. Incinerators and Trash-to-Energy by Guppy · · Score: 1

    Banning lead in solder - Worst environmental law ever passed. Lead in solder never escaped in the environment, was at worst destined for a lined landfill.

    I didn't understand the seemingly poor cost-benefit trade-off either, until I realized it was the European Union that pushed for this. In Europe, they incinerate a much larger portion of their trash than we do -- thus, the lead in the garbage stream was actually a big problem for them.

  26. motivated reasoning by microbox · · Score: 1

    Hi hs, it seems to me that some motivated reasoning is going on here. We both established that Pb has a short time-course, so paleolithic measurements of Pb aren't really relevant. If it only lasts upwards to 200 years, you only need to look back... 200 years. Also, there is no global Pb level, since the time-course is too short for global mixing. So any Pb measurement is necessarily local. Figure 2 shows the Pb measure growing by half to a full order of magnitude. The locality of the measurement is consistent with its distance for industrialized centres. The Saragossa Sea measurement shows a 15-fold increase over preindustrial levels. That Pb is coming from somewhere.

    Also, it is important to realize that *everything* is a proxy. You think your thermometer isn't a proxy? It doesn't tell you the temperature in the room, there are all sorts of subtle local climates that aren't accounted for. A "skeptic" will point to unknowns about local climates to claim that the proxy isn't good enough. Good enough for *what* precisely is never discussed, because it is the underlying conclusion that is being avoided.

    You will always be able to find some uncertainty, either directly in the measure, in the operationalization of the measure, or both. As such, it is an easy, and lazy game to point to uncertainties. Given the Pb measurements in corals, their locality, and what we know about gasoline usage, we can be fairly certain where the Pb came from. Sure there could be another source. Magic pixies could have created it. As such, we have no reason to believe that magic pixies didn't create the Pb.

    You strike me as the type of person who is scientific only insofar as it jives with your politics, which is to say, you hate the thought that some forms of environmentalism is scientifically based, and therefore you are motivated to make hay out of uncertainties, even long after the balance of evidence has moved.

    As such, you should apply for a job at Heartland, since that's what they do there.

    --

    Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
    1. Re:motivated reasoning by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Hi hs, it seems to me that some motivated reasoning is going on here. We both established that Pb has a short time-course, so paleolithic measurements of Pb aren't really relevant.

      Actually, I think it is relevant - say we've established a hump in Pb concentrations during the 20th century, attributable to the use of leaded gasoline. What if other natural events create similar humps in some utopian paleo record we could reference? While from our limited point of view, an increase in a trace element from some small fraction to some larger fraction may seem very scary, it becomes less so if there are other historical perturbations of the same magnitude without human intervention.

      Of course, the *real* thing missing here is "are the trace levels observed here actually dangerous in any way?" That's being implied, but isn't shown.

      Also, it is important to realize that *everything* is a proxy.

      Of course everything is a proxy, but certainly you'll agree that some proxies are more accurate than others :)

      You strike me as the type of person who is scientific only insofar as it jives with your politics

      I think that's really the problem now for both sides now, isn't it? You'll get otherwise rational "separate church and state" atheists believing in catastrophic anthropogenic global warming because it jives with their idea of a benign liberal and expansive government, but they're violently against creationism or "intelligent design" and can see right through that as unscientific. And of course, vice versa, with otherwise woo-woo fundamentalist christians suddenly being skeptical about everything but their own beliefs.

      As it stands, I'm a person who is scientific no matter what the consequence to my politics - but, you could also read that as having my politics driven by science. Politically, I'm about as socially liberal as you can get, and fiscally conservative as you can get. I believe that Bastiat did a great job of pointing out the bane of socialism in "The Law", but also believe that Paine did a great job skewering the church in "Age of Reason".

      I am indeed a skeptic's skeptic, and discern myself from both the extreme left wing and their belief systems as well as the extreme right wing and their belief systems, by applying my skepticism ruthlessly even to my own hard held beliefs.

      As an example, I was raised believing that gays were uniformly promiscuous child molesters, and shouldn't be allowed to serve in the military. Applying reason and logic to the issue, and questioning the beliefs I held for so long as a child, I had the wonderful experience of discovering, and accepting, that my prior beliefs were completely wrong. I had similar experiences with discovering atheism in 1st grade, and discovering the evil of carbohydrates and the failure of "calories in, calories out" in 2007 with Gary Taubes' "Good Calories, Bad Calories".

      Have you ever truly believed something, with all your heart, then upon further reflection or study, stopped believing it? It's not a skill I think everyone has, but I think it's vital if anyone is to have a hope of thinking scientifically all the time.

  27. Short-Siighted Human Behavior by bbsalem · · Score: 1

    Ignorance is not bliss, especially with heavy metals in the environment. Hg was used to almegmate fluvial Gold in California and large amounts of Hg are now trapped in sediments washed down from the gold bearing deposits. Hg is not that mobile in the environment unless it gets incorporated into organic systems and the amount of Hg detected downstream has been relatively low, but the point is, as in the OP, that we do the experiment after the fact. In ignorance we do things and turn around and try to find out the damage after the fact, after the profit taking, and hope that the damage isn't too fatal. The other shoe may drop on Hg contamination in California centuries from now, however.

    This is always er... muddied, by the fact that nature does some of the injection of heavy metals into the environment, herself. Hg is a common element in the Franciscan Group of the California Coast Ranges, so is Cr, so when businesses put large excesses of these elements into the environment, both Hg and Cr, they point to the natural supply in order to get wiggle room. In the case of Cr, it was the overabundance of the more oxidized Cr+6 that got some businesses into trouble, when Cr+2 or Cr+3 are the natural species of the element ion.