WikiLeaks Cables Foreshadow Russian Instigation of Ukrainian Military Action
Now that Russia has sent troops to seize the Crimean Peninsula, international politics are tense and frantic. An anonymous reader notes an article from Joshua Keating at Slate, which points out that some of the diplomatic cables on WikiLeaks illustrate how this situation is not at all unexpected. Quoting a cable from October, 2009:
"... pro-Russian forces in Crimea, acting with funding and direction from Moscow, have systematically attempted to increase communal tensions in Crimea in the two years since the Orange Revolution. They have done so by cynically fanning ethnic Russian chauvinism towards Crimean Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians, through manipulation of issues like the status of the Russian language, NATO, and an alleged Tatar threat to 'Slavs,' in a deliberate effort to destabilize Crimea, weaken Ukraine, and prevent Ukraine's movement west into institutions like NATO and the EU."
The article points out another cable from a few days later, which was titled, "Ukraine-Russia: Is Military Conflict No Longer Unthinkable?"
and now let's talk about the leaked documents involving the "pro-western forces in the Ukraine""
Predicted the same thing in 2008.
"The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old......They literally know nothing." - Ben Rhodes
Kremlin had no other choices left with Ukraine. There can be only two reasons for not letting Ukraine into NATO: foreign military bases inside the country and insufficently demarkated (or conflicting) borders. So Putin made it both.
If the US could invade Iraq without UN support and under the pretense of the moral high ground as defined by the US, then so can Russia invade Crimea. If the Kosovo can leave Serbia and become it's own country under the support of the US even though it is historically Serbian but by population Albanian so can Crimea which has a Russian majority. The US has made their bed and now it is sleeping in it. Precedence is a bitch, the US set the precedent and now they are winging about what is happening in Crimea !! Russia supplies 60% of Europe's energy and it will increase to 80% ... the US has nothing to stand on. If they apply sanctions, the Russians will increase the price of gas and oil and have Europe pay for them just for giggles.
Who did that?
I don't care who is right or wrong in the Ukraine, I don't care who is more manipulative: EU, USA or Russia. I don't care who has stolen more: Yanukovych or Tymoshenko. I pity those who died in this conflict, but I don't even care who has started the bloodshed.
There is one thing that I care about though. On one side of this conflict are Nazis. The "Right Wing", one of the main pushing forces in this uprising, are Nazis. They use Nazi symbols and slogans, they praise WWII Nazi collaborators as their heroes, their leader Yarosh (now the Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine) said that Russian people will never give up their ethnics and culture and therefore have to be eliminated.
So, if the Nazis are on one side, I'm on the other. No corruption can justify aligning with Nazis. I don't give a fuck how decent the majority of the protester might be. They. Fought. Side-by-side. With. Nazis.
Ha, jokes on him, You can't destroy mass.
Why shouldn't Ukraine just give up Crimea for the sake of national unity? Ukraine as a whole seems to be flying from one crisis to another, and it is seems to be torn between the pro-Russia and pro-West factions. Maybe Ukraine should just focus building its future as a Western country, and give up those territories where the population wants to live under Russian rule. Maybe later those areas can then join Ukraine if they so wish, like happened with the unification of West and East Germany.
Isn't this what the U.S. did in Grenada?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...
Thatcher sent a message to Reagan: This action will be seen as intervention by a Western country in the internal affairs of a small independent nation, however unattractive its regime. I ask you to consider this in the context of our wider East/West relations and of the fact that we will be having in the next few days to present to our Parliament and people the siting of Cruise missiles in this country. I must ask you to think most carefully about these points. I cannot conceal that I am deeply disturbed by your latest communication. You asked for my advice. I have set it out and hope that even at this late stage you will take it into account before events are irrevocable. (The full text remains classified.)
"If the US could invade Iraq without UN support and under the pretense of the moral high ground as defined by the US, then so can Russia invade Crimea."
are you trying to be funny or are you a paid russian propagandist? the UN hasn't "supported" any kind of military action save for relatively small police actions since the korean war and that was mostly because the soviet union at the time was boycotting the UN. as it were, the only reason that there would be no UN resolution here is because of russia's veto.
let's look at your words: the US invaded "under the pretense of the moral high ground." they were not irredentist land grabbers. after their 'mission' was done, they left. the russians here are simply imperialists.
"kosovo": serbia had achieved "world pariah" status after its recent aggressive wars, additionally, the "independence" movement of kosovo was a drawn out process involving internal discussion and grassroots movements, not tanks of a foreign power rolling in.
A minimum of two people must be able to be injured [and/or killed] by the device [including the attacker] for it to be a WMD. So, a large rock meets their definition. Or a stick.
Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
... who killed more then 1.5 million people.
hmm.. when did this happen?
As for a sovereign country, Iraq was still in a cease fire with the US under the conditions it followed certain rules. They weren't following those rules. And yes, it did matter if Iraq had WMDs, their promise to dispose of them and allow verification was the heart of the cease fire that ended the first gulf war after Iraq invaded Kuwait and Kuwait asked the US to help them.
"ASD Vershbow reaffirmed the Administration's message of support for Ukraine, underscored Ukraine's importance as a strategic partner, and commended the defense relationship, highlighting Ukraine's contributions to NATO and coalition operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and Kosovo. ASD Vershbow stressed the need for Ukraine to stay on track with defense reform efforts"
The reality is, and that goes for the other former Soviet republics, that NATO (USA) is not going to go to war to defend the Ukraine. Your prime function is as a forward missile platform used to threaten the Russian Federation. In the event that either the US or Russia launch an attack on each others territory, you'll give the Americans prior warning. As such you'll have to be taken out first by the Russian military.
Why couldn't Ukraine become a model of a bi-ethnic state? Russians and Ukrainians are so similar. They have almost the same food, religion is majority Orthodox in both cases, language is similar, both proud of vodka, etc. Why do the West Ukrainian nationalists need to stomp all over the right of the Russians, when in power, and why do Russian-speaking Ukrainian politicians always fall under the influence of Russia trying to partition the country? There has always been "us vs them" attitude in Ukrainian politics, always divided along ethnic lines. However, both sides do not realize that there is one great thing that sets Ukraine apart from Russia, and this is why its worth saving: Democracy. Don't laugh, human rights and the "democratic process" in Ukraine may seem primitive at times, but at least they're trying. They had four different presidents representing different factions in the last 15 years and that's something remarkable considering Putin's one-party state right next to them in Russia.
There was no need to bribe Ukraine. Ukraine was 100% under Soviet control. No one knows why exactly the transfer happened. I believe it was meant to represent a display of friendship between Ukraine and the Soviet leadership. Back then no one would have imagined that the republics could split some day. For example, Russian nationalists are crying crocodile tears because of some territories lost to Kazakhstan during the partition of USSR, though Crimea is the most hurtful thing for them.
Not really, This law defines a WMD for the purpose of domestic law enforcement as basically needing to expel something or cause damage by a projectile being expelled. A BB gun for instance can be a WMD but a rock alone couldn't. However, a rock in a slingshot might be.
It's tricky narrowing down a definition because it relies on devices defined in section 921 also and that specifically mentioned a starter pistol as a firearm if it can_be modified to shoot a projectile propelled by an explosive device even though it hasn't_been.
Originally, the term entered popular vocabulary by the use in the Safwan cease fire agreement with Iraq with the first gulf war. How it has changed to include a pencil sharpener or some silly irrelevant objects I don't know.
A rock falling from orbit would be a WMD!
Politics are singular.
The world might appear to be in the early stages of destroying itself (almost exactly 100 years after the war to end all wars started) but that's no excuse for sloppy grammar.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Because Putin is a neo-Soviet gangster, perhaps? And he's pissed off because the Ukrainian people have tossed out their dictator-in-waiting after the latter's sudden volte-face revealed him to be Putin's creature, maybe?
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
Even better, take Paul the Octopus (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P... ), who correctly predicted the outcome of several soccer matches and was offered a job by a UK bookmaker for his performance.
I fear it makes as much sense to credit Paul for deep psychic insights into soccer as Mrs. Palin for an astute grasp of international politics. Perhaps I'd rather take my chances on Paul.
Crimea's only freshwater source is the Dnieper River in Ukraine via the North Crimea Canal. The peninsula is not connected to mainland Russia in any way, only to Ukraine via the Isthmus of Perekop, a 5 to 7 km wide strip of land. Without the canal, there is no water on the peninsula if you discount bottled Evian. Desalination is too costly and only possible in coastal cities. Therefore, in order to secure water supply to the newly re-grabbed piece of land, Russia needs to secure the canal and the Kakhovka Reservoir in mainland Ukraine, which means occupying, well, more land.
Not really, This law [cornell.edu] defines a WMD for the purpose of domestic law enforcement as basically needing to expel something or cause damage by a projectile being expelled. A BB gun for instance can be a WMD but a rock alone couldn't. However, a rock in a slingshot might be.
On what do you base your idea that a BB gun or a rock in a slingshot are WMDs, even according to this ridiculous law?
Ezekiel 23:20
You can convert it to energy though. Which he didn't do. Ergo the only weapons of mass destruction are atomic bombs.
Got them moderator blues I blieve I walk out the do', With these mod-points I been gettin', I 'most never post no mo'
lol.. I'm forming my basis on the law and my extensive knowledge of a BB or pellet guns in use today. I exaggerated a bit but there are air riffles on the market which have a .51 inch barrel diameter (.50 cal) that would make it fit this definition.
(B) any type of weapon (other than a shotgun or a shotgun shell which the Attorney General finds is generally recognized as particularly suitable for sporting purposes) by whatever name known which will, or which may be readily converted to, expel a projectile by the action of an explosive or other propellant, and which has any barrel with a bore of more than one-half inch in diameter; You can find videos of them on YouTube if you are curious about them.
...But...
Regarding the nuclear weapons situation.
According to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...
Peak stockpile 1,080 warheads (1992)
Current stockpile 0 total
Maximum missile range NA
So.. no current stockpile. Sounds good to me.
But also according to Wiki. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...
Notice third column
"Satellite Orion", "Midrange Orion", "Super Orion"
Ship diameter, 17–20 m, 40 m, 400 m
Ship mass, 300 t, 1000–2000 t, 8,000,000 t
Number of bombs, 540, 1080, 1080
Individual bomb mass, 0.22 t, 0.37–0.75 t, 3000 t
This can't help one speculate, even with all this Megatons to Megawatts program going on.
What happened to those 1080 Ukraniean warheads?
Uhm?
Above numbers are based on available technology and materials from 1958
Both factors have improved somewhat since.
Of cause, as usual all the people that would be capable of pulling of such an accomplishment are either retired or dead.
Including one that have actually piled up enough money to actually do it, with some help of cheap Ukranian Megatons, making SpaceX, Virgin Galactic and Armadillo Aroespace look like wooses. http://9to5mac.com/2011/08/16/...
Did he actually do it?
Vladimir Putin has been trained as a KGB officer to serve the Russian people. He does that in an exemplar fashion, at least compared to the thug and alcoholic Jelzin, who sold out his country to Jewish-Anglosaxon interests, while his compatriots suffered from hunger.
That pisses off the Jews who run the west. And abuse it to the limits.
Long live Vladimir, a true patriot and hero to his people !
Me ? I am a German who is fucked over by his own elite, who care about everything except the interest of the average German man and his family. Vladimir Putin demonstrates that patriotism has not been completely killed off.
Long live Free Russia ! Keep your nuclear swords nicely maintianed and sharp !
Anyone who has paid even slight attention would have predicted this.
The Crimea is the home of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Putin is not going to walk away from that (in fact they have a lease, although it has a somewhat dubious approval).
Putin would like to keep all of Ukraine in his orbit, but I think even he has doubts about his ability to seize Ukraine with force. The West will whine about the Crimea but has no leverage and will just hope they can bluff enough to maintain the rest of the existing Ukrainian borders without having Moscow annex the eastern part, too.
The whole east/west struggle is something of a pyrrhic victory for no matter who "wins" -- Ukraine's economy is a trainwreck, and the "winner" will have to spend big bucks to keep it propped up, which nobody wants to do.
oh, the war was a lie response. because that hasnt been played out forever at this point. When the entire world signed on for the war, its hard to fault it.
either bush was an idiot, or the biggest evil mastermind in the history of the world according to liberals, its hard to make the argument yet you guys do it oh so well...
have you seen my sig? there are many others like it but none that are the same
Most western government thoughts were actually "oh, how do we spin it to continue business as usual with Russia".
Tagliavini commission was created, and as it included 2 German "experts" who had upfront declared Russia had right to invade, so it was clear what kind of task was assigned to them, (thank you Ms Merkel)
Commission has come to surprising conclusions, that Georgian government did not have right to defend it's own people on its own territory (which was bombed by heavy artillery on daily bases), yet Russia had right to defend it's "peacekeepers", (even though there is no evidence that any attack on Russian "peacekeepers" whatsoever has been carried out by Georgians), but just overreacted a bit. (on top of it 2 Georgian peacekeepers were killed on 6th of Aug 2008, somehow neither that did justify actions of the Georgian government (it was actually a mixed Russia-Georgian peacekeeping operation))
Now, Russia is AGAIN getting premium treatment, for just being aggressive. You can clearly see that in most messages (and even journalist comments) in the West.
Oh, there are interests, you know. Old USSR junk that is even remotely usable only vs former USSR republics absolutely has to be stationed in the Ukraine. Oh and there are Russians on the peninsula. And oh, there are interests of Putin there. Oh dare not make him angry, or it is all your fault.
I recall a guy called Chamberlain had similar, as well as extremely successful, approach to aggressors about 70 years ago.
Given the recent history of Ukraine and also of Russia, this is not unexpected.
And if you've been paying attention *at all*, it's entirely expected.
Uhm, no, that's nothing more than a bullshit excuse - the US did not have authority from the UN to depose the Iraqi government, they were never granted that in 1991, and they were never granted that at any time after 1991. They were given the authority to carry out specific actions in order to remove Iraqi forces from Kuwait, but no more.
You also ignore the fact that as part of their request for help, the Kuwaiti government promised democratic elections in a free Kuwait. They never happened.
The US doesn't need authority from the UN to depose Iraq. Nowhere is it in the UN charter to give permission to depose any sitting government.
And the UN doesn't give orders for specific actions in war unless the action is a UN action. That hasn't happened since Korea and we are reminded often how big of a failure that was.
I don't know who told you that the UN was the government of the world but they are not. It exists in order to have avenues for diplomacy instead of wars and had treaties it administrates, but you are completely wrong in thinking the US needs or needed permission from the UN.
Also, I don't really care about what Kuwait promised or not. They weren't the aggressors, they were our friends and had been friendly with the US since it's beginning. Kuwait even allowed Jefferson to stage his operations and preparations to invade the controlling authority Tripoli when both were under the ottoman empire control.
Right now, he'd be doing his "man on the street" interviews, asking Americans if they know where the Crimea River is.
Have gnu, will travel.
It's pretty obvious that Plan A (draw in Yanukovych) has backfired and we've now gone to Plan B (foment unrest as an excuse to intervene).
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
It is a must-read, IMO. Some very insightful points from the old congressman.
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/ar...
...in his place instead of mindlessly accepting his submissions now? Did fjord go on vacation or something?
What's going on in Ukraine isn't a revolution, it's a fascist coup overthrowing the democratically elected government because they couldn't stand losing the last election. Same as what the right wing of Venezuela is trying to do right now.
Specifically, neo-nazi fascists hating both ethnic Russians and....Jews. Maybe cold fjord's got a splitting migraine with the cognitive dissonance: he's a proud Brownshirt himself, but on the other he's also a Zionist troll, so he can't decide what to do.
Why couldn't Ukraine become a model of a bi-ethnic state? Russians and Ukrainians are so similar.
There's your answer right there.
It's a bit like the uncanny valley. People who are very different from you are interesting and exotic; you know it takes some effort to understand them. People who are just a little bit different from you are too incorrigibly stubborn to bring themselves up to snuff and think and act the right way.
That's why civil wars are so bitter and inhumane. In some ways it's harder to see humanity in someone who is culturally similar but irreconcilably different than in someone who is alien. Rudyard Kipling could wax lyrical about the noble savages in "Gunga Din" and "Fuzzy-Wuzzy", but he never once penned a poem in praise of the Liberal Party.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
I'm sure that based on the Sudetenland precedent this will be Putin's "last territorial demand."
much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
Forging evidence of and publicly lie about mass-destruction weapons in order to make a case to invade a country...
Hey, I'm no fan of the crimes the US have been conducting over the past decade... But at least the US issued a declaration of war, and gave both Iraq and Afghanistan the option of negotiating their way out of the conflict without deploying troops on the ground.
Here the Russians haven't issued an ultimatum, they haven't given proper notice, nor have they tried to resolve their issues through neither direct negotiations or the UN. And as of right now, they do not seem open to retreat in favor of a UN peace keeping force.
This is an old school imperialistic land grab, seems like the Russians might get away with it because they don't care about sanctions. And sanctions won't last forever anyway, does anybody still remember Georgien? That wasn't so long ago, and more or less equally unprovocated.
Incorrect. Any release of energy means converting mass to energy. The only thing that makes nuclear reactions special is that the energy released is so great that the corresponding mass loss becomes easily measurable.
Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.
FWIW, Svoboda doesn't call itself national socialist, either. Some of their rank and file can be NS, as evidenced by discussions on their forum, but it's not the official platform.
The US doesn't need authority from the UN to depose Iraq. Nowhere is it in the UN charter to give permission to depose any sitting government.
If that is correct then all of the current outrage at Russias action in Crimea is equally superfluous...
And the UN doesn't give orders for specific actions in war unless the action is a UN action. That hasn't happened since Korea and we are reminded often how big of a failure that was.
That is where you are wrong, the original 1991 Gulf War was a UN authorised action - see UNSC Resolution 678, which authorised member states "co-operating with the Government of Kuwait, unless Iraq on or before 15 January 1991 fully implements, as set forth in paragraph 1 above, the foregoing resolutions, to use all necessary means to uphold and implement resolution 660 (1990) and all subsequent relevant resolutions and to restore international peace and security in the area;"
http://www.refworld.org/cgi-bi...
While the UN are not the government of the world, they uphold international treaties which member states have agreed to, which include the recognition of the sovereignty of member states and the right for a countries government to govern. Multiple independent western courts have affirmed that military action with the aim of regime change is illegal under international law.
The Ukranian SSR was one of the founding members of the USSR. The Crimea was not transferred until 31 year later.
"Why couldn't Ukraine become a model of a bi-ethnic state? Russians and Ukrainians are so similar. "
Ask the Serbs and Croats. Heck, ask the Irish and the Northern Irish.
Well, someone has to stand up to the constant opinion swaying of cold fjord and phantomfive ; )
I'm sure that the Kosovo precedent is more appropriate here.
A BB gun for instance can be a WMD but a rock alone couldn't.
Which just outlines just how stupid the the law is.
The whole point of the term WMD was to draw a line where an attack using anything beyond the line would be considered as being equivalent to a full-scale nuclear attack, with a corresponding retaliation. Back during the cold war the US/Russia/etc were saying that they really didn't care about just how big a nerve gas/biological/nuclear attack you hit them with - they would turn your country into a glass parking lot. It made sense as a policy - once you get to the point of launching mass-casualty attacks that kill people by the tens of thousands a full-scale war was inevitable, and with mounting escalations it would end up being nuclear. When one flies they all fly, or so it goes.
Using the same term to describe common crimes just doesn't make any sense. If some nut shoots a few people with a machine gun you're not going to level entire cities in response. You might just do that if a state actor arms a nut with an atomic bomb and sets them loose on NYC.
Seriously, though, I can't believe we're actually talking about NATO-vs-Warsaw Pact all over again...
Tom Clancy's most recent and last book (Command Authority) also predicted this. Just as one of his previous books anticipated terrorists using airplanes to attack America. (Clancy had them running it into Congress, not the WTC, but close enough).
A rock falling from orbit would be a WMD!
Depends if the rock was falling due to natural means or artificial intervention.
If it's natural, it certainly isn't a weapon (you've still go the mass destruction part, but we all saw that movie and well I'm not that attached to Paris anyway).
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
Sorry it took so long to get back, work took me out of town for a bit.
No, you can still be outraged over the actions of another country.You do not have to accept anything you do not like. The Geneva convention has some provisions in it describing when it is legitimate to go to war but the UN doesn't give or rescind permission making it legal and illegal.
No, I'm not wrong. You simply got lost somewhere. A resolution autorizing an action or broad set of actions does not in any way constitute the UN giving orders. It is saying we will not object. Korea on the other hand was a UN action and they gave specific orders like take this area or launch this offensive. Granted, the specifics on how that happened was left to the generals in charge but the UN took a direct part in coordination and orchestrating it.
Again, no. First, there are multiple bodies that deal with treaties. Some of them are under the UN control but most of them are not. I think WIPO has the most active treaties at the moment. But Russia as part of UN charter, has a permanent seat with Veto power at the UN. That means they cannot be booted (neither can the US, France, UK, or China) for any reason and they retain veto power over any actions the UN might try including security resolutions and sanctions. Now UN charter does say stuff in chapter 1 article 2 that makes an invasion for regime change illegal under UN charter but there are no penalties for it. Nothing is prescribed by charter or treaty concerning it. It's no different then your mom telling me to go to my room and me telling her to kiss off. The UN could vote on allowing other countries to address the problem or even take military action themselves like with Korea but with Russia's veto, nothing can be done.
But it gets even worse for your case. Any court can claim anything is illegal, it's a matter of jurisdiction and enforcement. I just held a kangaro court that said you posting was illegal and a violation under international law. Of course they also didn't say there was any penalties and even if there was, they do not have jurisdiction or the ability to enforce any of them. About all they can do is get outraged and have someone claim that outrage is superfluous.
And to make it even more obnoxious, Russia didn't invade Crimea, they went to the assistance of the sitting leader who was unconstitutionally and illegally deposed by a mob of people using force and the threat of force. So forget about what you think you know and watch the spin. Russia said the Viktor Yanukovych is still the only valid president and blames the uprising on influences from the west. "People are being persecuted for language and political reasons.". So not only is Russia helping the legitimate elected president who was unconstitutionally removed from under the threat of violence, they are the humanitarians in the mix. All of that seems to be completely in line with UN charter and international law and it seems to provide valid excuses for all the so called violations in the process. Interestingly, the talking heads in the west want to ingore and dismiss that without mention.