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US Officials Cut Estimate of Recoverable Monterey Shale Oil By 96%

First time accepted submitter steam_cannon (1881500) writes "The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov) is planning to release a major 96% reserve downgrade to the amount of oil and gas recoverable from the Monterey Shale formation, one of the largest oil/gas reserves in the United States. After several years of intensified exploration the Monterey oil shale play seems to have much less recoverable oil and gas then previously hoped. This is due to multiple factors such as the more complex rippled geology of the shale and over-hyped recovery estimates by investors. By official estimates the Monterey Shale formation makes up 2/3 of the shale reserves in the US and by some estimates 1/3 of all crude reserves in the US. Not a drop in the bucket. Next Month the EIA.gov will be announcing cutting it's estimates for Monterey by 96%. That's a huge blow to the US energy portfolio, trillions of dollars, oil and gas the US might have used for itself or exported. Presently the White House is evaluating making changes to US oil export restrictions so this downgrade may result in changes to US energy policy. As well as have a significant impact on US economy and the economy of California."

411 comments

  1. Good. by Snufu · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Maybe we'll have to start paying the actual, non-subsidized price for petroleum.

    1. Re:Good. by SpankiMonki · · Score: 3, Insightful

      LOL wut? You must live outside the US.

      This announced change on estimated US (slash) California reserves will have little to no impact on the markets. It certainly might have an impact on the CA economy in the long term - but for the rest of us...not so much.

    2. Re:Good. by SpankiMonki · · Score: 4, Funny

      The point is moot. Libruls don't want even 1 drop of it removed from the ground..

      FTFY

    3. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Since when are liberals luddites? Anyway, not extracting our crude is an unbelievably good business move if you're able to plan beyond just quarterly profits: the world has already passed peak oil, which means every country thats currently selling oil will likely be dry within our lifetimes; if we refuse to extract our oil and the world is still completely dependent upon it (crude has hundreds upon hundreds of uses, far more than just fuel and lubricants) we could sell it for any price we wanted. We'd be able to make back everything we paid out for crude and everything made from it times a hundred.

    4. Re:Good. by Megane · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      Exactly. This is in California? It's less likely to be recoverable than ANWAR, if only because the greenies would never let it be tapped because of NIMBY.

      --
      #naabhaprzrag, #sverubfr-000, #agi-fcbafberq, negvpyr[pynff*=' negvpyr-ary-'] { qvfcynl: abar !vzcbegnag; }
    5. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We can't even get a Concorde off the ground anymore. Somehow we survived. On long time scales, civilizations come and go, and so will we.

    6. Re: Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm sure the industry will figure out a solution. Maybe dropping a nuke down the well would free up the oil, sort of like fracking.

    7. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... the world has already passed peak oil, which means every country thats currently selling oil will likely be dry within our lifetimes...

      Passed peak oil? Really? Based on actual statistics (Here) is clearly hasn't peaked. With the fracking revolution now gathering steam it's unlikely to peak until a widely available lower cost substitute arrives.

    8. Re:Good. by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      The point is moot. Liberals don't want even 1 drop of it removed from the ground.

      I'm not sure why people "favouring individual liberty, free trade, and moderate political and social reform" should have any such opinion.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    9. Re:Good. by drinkypoo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The luddites think its icky and we can all just use windmills. Don't ask me how they think they'll ever get a jet off the ground using solar, but I don't think they've even thought that far into it.

      This isn't about ludditism. This is about what year is it? We can fly the planes on biofuels, but we should replace all air within a nation with high-speed rail. Which we should fucking have already, because what year is it? We should be running our planes on biofuels already, because what year is it?

      We've had solar panels since the 1970s and they could repay their energy investment in seven years back then. Now it's three. What year is it?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    10. Re:Good. by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

      We can't even get a Concorde off the ground anymore.

      The thought of Egyptian pyramids immediately come to the discerning thinker's mind: "awesome but impractical and expensive" seems to work on people in every millennium.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    11. Re: Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      These Luddites would rather have "SOLAR FREAKING ROADWAYS"!

    12. Re: Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, genius, there is a whole vein of research and a few startup companies working on solar thermo-chemical processes to produce synthetic fuels, chemically identical to existing gas, diesel, and kerosene. So yes, actually, we do have a plan for fueling jets with solar.

    13. Re:Good. by Jon_S · · Score: 1

      Especially since oil has been produced from this area for many decades now. It is already a very established industry in this area.

    14. Re:Good. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Informative

      Exactly. This is in California? It's less likely to be recoverable than ANWAR, if only because the greenies would never let it be tapped because of NIMBY.

      It is already being tapped. California produces more oil than any other state except Texas and North Dakota. It is even slightly ahead of Alaska. Here's the data.

    15. Re:Good. by knightghost · · Score: 2

      Peak oil as Cost has been passed. A hard number as to how much pumped is irrelevant - demand must be factored in.

    16. Re:Good. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'm not sure why people "favouring individual liberty, free trade, and moderate political and social reform" should have any such opinion.

      That is not what "liberal" means in American English. In America, a liberal is what Europeans would call a progressive or a social democrat. What Europeans call a liberal, would be a libertarian in America. In Australian English, "liberal" means conservative.

    17. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Don't bother. Republicans live in a world in which no drilling occurs during a democratic administration. That's why we still hear how turrible Obummer is to the oil industry. How he's ruined that resource for the US even though we're producing more oil now than ever. We're now a net exporter of oil; but Obama ruined it. Can't squeeze a single drop of oil out of the ground with Obummer in office.

      And the constant mentioning of ANWR by Republicans again shows how shortsighted they are. Republican, the part of security and homeland defense. They'll keep us safe, but they want to tap a moderate resource for oil and gas (mean estimate of 10.6 bbl) which won't effect the market in any noticeable way instead of preserving it as a strategic resource so when the shit hits the fan we have 10.6 bbl to ourselves. Right now every drop of that 10.6 bbl goes on the market for Indian and China. Republicans, just thinking about you.

    18. Re:Good. by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      In America, a liberal is what Europeans would call a progressive or a social democrat.

      Yes, and progressive people have generally been concerned in the previous centuries with advancing human freedoms and liberties - abolishing guilds, slavery, segregation; establishing free markets, constitutionally-guaranteed freedoms etc. (whereas conservatives would like to preserve the status quo). So apparently there's really no difference in meaning.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    19. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Go ahead and layout for us all the cash direct subsidies that are paid to oil companies.

      I hear lots of wackos whining about it but never any details.

    20. Re:Good. by LifesABeach · · Score: 0

      The Tea Party lives in a fantasy oil world of thinking they will benefit. Yet, I've not seen any, why?

      Tax breaks for Oil Billionares makes no cents.

    21. Re:Good. by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

      You forgot, "For A Small Fee, you do not have to participate."

    22. Re: Good. by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

      Fuel Cells also.

    23. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      No, in the US it was the progressive liberal democrats in the south who fought a civil war against the conservative republicans in the north to keep their slaves. When defeated, the progressive liberal democrats created the KKK, implemented segregation, fought against civil rights laws and used various other tactics for over a century while the conservatives fought for individual freedom and equal opportunity. Please take off your rose colored glasses before looking back at history.

    24. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Exactly. And in addition to the direct subsidies and tax breaks, there are the costs "hidden" in the Pentagon's budget. Even when not at war to protect the free flow of oil (see Gulf War I), the Unites States' 5th fleet is stationed in Bahrain to make sure oil flows freely out of the Middle East. How much does that cost US citizens a year? $10, $20, $50 billion??

    25. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That is not what "liberal" means in American English. In America, a liberal is what Europeans would call a progressive or a social democrat.

      While that is technically true, it's mostly just used as a curse word now for those conservatives who have no concept of compromise and do not understand the difference between opinion and fact. It's one of about a dozen words that mainly serve to make these stupid conservatives angry, a list that also includes words like "socialism" and "taxation." Sadly there are few words that actually make them happy, since that generally runs counter to the goal of conservative media with the obvious exception of schadenfreude. Their media go to great lengths to prolong anger and extract pleasure from the misfortune of those they call liberals. For example, they are still talking about the tragedy in Benghazi since, even though it obviously isn't working with swing voters, it keeps their base nice and angry and pliable.

    26. Re:Good. by andyring · · Score: 1

      Except that modern day progressives stand for none of the things you reference. They support guilds (unions), support slavery (it was Republicans, aka conservatives, who spearheaded the civil rights legislation in the 1960s; Democrats aka progressives aka liberals opposed it). They prefer segregation particularly in schools by forcing kids into horribly failing schools with no way out, the are opposed to free markets, and opposed to constitutionally guaranteed freedoms (religion, self defense, etc.).

    27. Re:Good. by mark-t · · Score: 1

      If jets were really the only things that used fossil fuels, there wouldn't be any danger of an impending future shortage for at least thousands of years.

    28. Re:Good. by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      A luddite is someone who sticks with 18th century technology. Think about it zippy.

    29. Re:Good. by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      Oil companies get government subsidies. That's why we are not paying the TCO.

    30. Re:Good. by kick6 · · Score: 1, Funny

      This isn't about ludditism. This is about what year is it? We can fly the planes on biofuels, but we should replace all air within a nation with high-speed rail. Which we should fucking have already, because what year is it? We should be running our planes on biofuels already, because what year is it? We've had solar panels since the 1970s and they could repay their energy investment in seven years back then. Now it's three. What year is it?

      Repeating an italicized catch phrase doesn't make a cohesive argument. What it makes...is shitty mainstream hip-hop music.

    31. Re:Good. by kick6 · · Score: 1

      That definition is rather pedantic. A luddite is someone who refuses to embrace the progress of technology and change.

    32. Re:Good. by RabidReindeer · · Score: 1

      In the 1960s, the Southern Conservatives were still democrats and Southern Republicans were them damned Yankee carpetbaggers gettin' out nigras all stirred up. Southern Conservatives didn't turn Rebuplican until about the time of Reagan and Falwell.

      A Guild is a group of free people using their solidarity for the benefit of all in the guild. In a way, they're a lot like a distrbuted and very flat corporation. Which is one reason why they, too operate as chartered corporations. Unions are a debased form of that. Among other things, guilds are "supposed to be" meritocracies, where demonstrated skills advance you, as opposed to many unions which are relatively unskilled and/or amalgamations of disparate skills.

      As with most things, what's "supposed to be" isn't always all that closely aligned with what actually is, but that applies to both sides of the debate.

      For all the faults of public schools, I'd rather fix what is "supposed to be" an even-handed socialized educational system than permit it to be further damaged by cherry-picking the profitable parts and giving them to people whose primary motivation is money over even the most questionable of educational ideals. Some of us didn't have as fortunate a background going in.

    33. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem with liberal is they are trying to make us gunk un il...

    34. Re:Good. by RabidReindeer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That is not what "liberal" means in American English. In America, a liberal is what Europeans would call a progressive or a social democrat.

      While that is technically true, it's mostly just used as a curse word now for those conservatives who have no concept of compromise and do not understand the difference between opinion and fact. It's one of about a dozen words that mainly serve to make these stupid conservatives angry, a list that also includes words like "socialism" and "taxation." Sadly there are few words that actually make them happy, since that generally runs counter to the goal of conservative media with the obvious exception of schadenfreude. Their media go to great lengths to prolong anger and extract pleasure from the misfortune of those they call liberals. For example, they are still talking about the tragedy in Benghazi since, even though it obviously isn't working with swing voters, it keeps their base nice and angry and pliable.

      Or, as Orwell called it, DuckSpeak. Why think about complex issues when you can slap around labels as fast as you can quack them?

      Just get some Big Brother figure to chant the appropriate terms over the visi-screen or whatever.

    35. Re:Good. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Repeating an italicized catch phrase doesn't make a cohesive argument.

      If you wanted a cohesive argument, what are you doing on slashdot?

      Nonetheless, the argument is that we've long had the technology to do much better, but we're fucking off on greed and waste. If that's not obvious to you, then you've been spending too much time here, he said ironically.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    36. Re:Good. by bluegutang · · Score: 3, Interesting

      We've had solar panels since the 1970s and they could repay their energy investment in seven years back then. Now it's three.

      It's easy to see why most individuals haven't done this - they haven't done the cost-benefit calculation themselves, there are large (relatively) one-time costs for installation, and so on. But what about industry? Why hasn't every large factory in Arizona put solar panels on their roof yet? Surely they have accountants and technical staff who are capable of accurately calculating the benefits and arranging for the installation. Either all these people are wrong (rather hard to believe), or solar panels have not actually yet reached the point of commercial viability.

    37. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You should spend some time reading about the environmental damage caused when a solar panel is manufactured.

      You might also want to spend some time reading about the societal damage caused through the abuse of eminent domain by railroad tycoons.

      The year isn't 1900 anymore. We can't just dump cadmium all over the place, and we can't let billionaires run the government.

    38. Re:Good. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Either all these people are wrong (rather hard to believe), or solar panels have not actually yet reached the point of commercial viability.

      These are not the people who are the problem. The problem is the entrenched utilities — why aren't they adding more "alternative" power generation? Many organizations and even individuals are still happy to pay a premium to say that they're using renewables, that is not yet a tapped-out market.

      It's totally understandable why the factories aren't adding solar. The issue is selling the power you're not consuming. In a lot of states they pretty much steal it. The infrastructure needs to be decoupled from generation, that would make net metering more viable.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    39. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We've had solar panels since the 1970s and they could repay their energy investment in seven years back then. Now it's three.

      Either solar panels really provide a 33% return, and only ignorance of this fact is preventing everyone from investing in them - or energy isn't actually the dominant factor in their cost. (Say, it takes three years to pay back the energy used in making the bare-bones panel, but another thirty to pay back the energy used in housing, transporting and installing them.)

    40. Re:Good. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Either solar panels really provide a 33% return, and only ignorance of this fact is preventing everyone from investing in them - or energy isn't actually the dominant factor in their cost. (Say, it takes three years to pay back the energy used in making the bare-bones panel, but another thirty to pay back the energy used in housing, transporting and installing them.)

      Great. Call it six. If they last for twelve, it's still a good investment, not least because they provide power when you need it most.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    41. Re:Good. by Dishevel · · Score: 1
      The subsidies are not as large as you think they are and most of that goes away at the pump when the State and Federal governments tax the hell out of it.

      This is of course to repair the roads the vehicles use. We will forget of course the DMV fees what were supposed to cover that cost. We will also forget that this cost used to be covered by the general fund from the money they take from you.

      We will also not look at the fact that with the general fund money, DMV fees and Gas taxes the roads still do not get repaired.

      --
      Why is it so hard to only have politicians for a few years, then have them go away?
    42. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And these progressives are concerned with how much soda Im "allowed" to buy, how much money I'm "allowed" to make, How I'm "allowed" to spend, where I'm "allowed" to travel......So no, they aren't trying to give me freedoms. They want control of every aspect of others lives they can get into

    43. Re:Good. by Wootery · · Score: 1

      Don't ask me how they think they'll ever get a jet off the ground using solar, but I don't think they've even thought that far into it.

      A straw-man so awful, it defeats itself.

      You're right that for aircraft, there's no real contender to using oil-based fuels. Somehow you've taken this to mean we should continue to burn oil even where we don't need to.

    44. Re:Good. by timeOday · · Score: 1
      Solar power production is exploding as we speak.

      My neighbor just put them up and figures payoff in 5 years. That is with heavy subsidies though, so I do think the GP's figures are too optimistic for now. But again, look at the numbers in that link. It is happening.

    45. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are some direct subsidies, yes.

      Most are indirect.

      Then there's simply the fact that we nearly refine as much oil per day, as China, Russia and Japan do per day. Combined. And they have the second, third, and fourth largest refining capacity in the world.

      Forget about your fascination with subsidies. It's a poor vector, and it's wrongly understood, your post is an example.

      Focus on fuel taxes. Get that changed to a percentage. Even many Republicans can live with that.

    46. Re:Good. by electrosoccertux · · Score: 1

      more like LIBLULZ!!!11 lolololol

    47. Re:Good. by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      ... what year is it? ... What year is it?

      Um, I think you'd better see a neurologist, mate.

    48. Re:Good. by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 2

      Repeating an italicized catch phrase doesn't make a cohesive argument.

      Oh yeah, Mr. Smarty Pants? Then when haven't you been able to answer the question of what year it is??? If you don't know, you should just not post a response.

    49. Re:Good. by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 2

      Solar power production is exploding as we speak.

      Well, that sure answers why people don't want it on their roofs.

    50. Re:Good. by geekoid · · Score: 2

      the road are in good working order. What freeways aren't being repaired?

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    51. Re:Good. by bluegutang · · Score: 1

      Many factories are heavy electricity users, so they would benefit from solar panels by decreasing their electric bills. And, like you say, why don't electricity producers shift to solar panels?

    52. Re:Good. by geekoid · · Score: 1

      " but we should replace all air within a nation with high-speed rail."
      based on what? Certainly not on any understanding of rail.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    53. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      solar wont be on their love trains until the patents are up or if the kochs figure ou a way to make pv cells from q dots (which can be made from coal for cheap)

    54. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not sure why people "favouring individual liberty, free trade, and moderate political and social reform" should have any such opinion.

      They don't but what you just described is better known as a Libertarian, not what is generally called a "Liberal" which is better termed "Progressive" even though many of their favoured polices are anything but progressive.

    55. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How many people are you going to starve by taking all the food to convert to biofuel? There is not enough biomass to both feed the growing population and the increasing energy demands by that said growing population. High speed rail, are you serious? Do you really want to go back to the 1800s and spend days crossing the continent rather than hours? Let me know when you can get from LA to NY in under 6 hours on a train. It works ok for regional travel but not cross continent.

    56. Re:Good. by whistlingtony · · Score: 2

      Uhm. That sounds pretty good to me. :D Lots of nature, blameless lives, lots of frugality and recyling, good music, good drugs, plentiful weed, and loose women. Why are conservatives fighting us again? :D Heheheheheh

    57. Re:Good. by whistlingtony · · Score: 2

      Peak Oil has been reached. That's WHY we're fracking, and why we're doing all that deep offshore drilling. Basically, all the easy to get stuff is gone man... it's all downhill from here.

    58. Re:Good. by whistlingtony · · Score: 2

      /checks his progressive membership card.

      I think you need to stop listening to YOUR side tell you what I'm for, and listen to ME tell you what I'm for.

      I am not opposed to free markets. I am opposed to unregulated markets. Everyone needs to play fair. I support freedom of religion, despite being an Atheist. You can believe whatever stupid thing you want as long as you don't push it on me. Keep it in YOUR head, and in your house. Keep it out of mine. I own a gun. Yes, I support Unions, because the alternative is to tell people they can't form associations? No.... I don't support slavery. That's absurd. Actually, your whole post is absurd.... Never mind...

    59. Re:Good. by whistlingtony · · Score: 3, Informative

      The names changed through history, and you know that. The "southern democrats" that you are referencing were folding into the Republican party a long time ago, and you know it. You're just doublespeaking.

    60. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, in the US it was the populist conservative Democrats in the south who fought a civil war against the progressive Republicans in the north to keep their slaves. When defeated, the populist democrats created the KKK, implemented segregation, fought against civil rights laws and used various other tactics for over a century while the progressivex fought for individual freedom and equal opportunity. Please do not confluse current political party alignments with past party ideologies before looking back at history.

      FTFY

    61. Re:Good. by sandytaru · · Score: 1

      We put in a solar hot water system shortly after we moved into the house. We got some subsidies for it, but still had to front about $4000 up front. It actually has cut our monthly power by a third, saving us about $600/year. (Joys of living in a modern energy efficient home.) So we'll get our payoff in seven years.

      More importantly, since we have a double tank system that doesn't require external electricity, we have nearly unlimited hot water even during a blackout - and even during winter when there isn't much sunlight. (It's not as scorching hot as it can get in the summer.) That non-monetary payoff has actually been even better than the fifty bucks a month we've saved. Four adults can take a shower in a row and nobody's shower goes cold!

      --
      Occasionally living proof of the Ballmer peak.
    62. Re:Good. by CWCheese · · Score: 2

      Didn't John Holdren say something about needing to de-develop the US economy over the coming years? Luddites indeed.

      --
      Have a Day!
    63. Re: Good. by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      They used to do explosive fracking. Back before the greenies decided it was 'the debil'.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    64. Re:Good. by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Fungibility of oil notwithstanding. That's the US subsidizing Europe/China/Japan. Look where the mideast oil actually goes.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    65. Re:Good. by radarskiy · · Score: 2

      "Repeating an italicized catch phrase doesn't make a cohesive argument."

      For Brutus is an honorable man.

    66. Re:Good. by MrBigInThePants · · Score: 1

      You are kidding, right?

      Libertarian != liberal.

      They are two very different things. The US does not have a mainstream left wing or liberal movement in government.

      Jesus Christ. The myopic political views of some USA citizens is frustrating....

    67. Re:Good. by HiThere · · Score: 1

      I680 approaching the Bay Bridge is pretty bad. Not as bad as the local streets, but the traffic is faster, so small defects are worse.

      And why did you specify freeways? The DMV money is also used for local & county streets and roads. A lot of the gas tax is state taxes, at least locally, and it, also, is supposed to be used for transportation improvements...like street maintenance.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    68. Re:Good. by HiThere · · Score: 2

      It's not just the names that changed. And the NAME of the party of the North during the civil was was the Republican party. The relation of that party to the current Republican party is historical rather than ideological. Please see:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    69. Re:Good. by HiThere · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure that abolishing the guilds was a net gain for freedom. To me it seems that it mainly removed entry into the skilled trades to those with limited means and transferred the subservience of the skilled workers to people more interested in accumulaitng wealth than in being highly skilled. Perhaps at the time it looked like a step towards liberty, but I don't think it actually was such.

      OTOH, the guilds did tend to lock traditional techniques into practice (rather like building codes do...except that that benefits lawyers rather than masters of the craft) and thus make trades inflexible. This, however, is nearly orthogonal to liberty.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    70. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, in the US it was the progressive liberal democrats in the south who fought a civil war against the conservative republicans in the north to keep their slaves. When defeated, the progressive liberal democrats created the KKK, implemented segregation, fought against civil rights laws and used various other tactics for over a century while the conservatives fought for individual freedom and equal opportunity. Please take off your rose colored glasses before looking back at history.

      Wrong. Just plain wrong.
      What you said Is Not True.
      Absolutely, totally, fucking wrong.

      You're embarrassing us both.
      I really do hope you aren't saying that around children, or anyone else for that matter.

    71. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are kidding, right?

      Libertarian != liberal.

      They are two very different things. The US does not have a mainstream left wing or liberal movement in government.

      Jesus Christ. The myopic political views of some USA citizens is frustrating....

      When you're like 20 down in the responses, you need to quote the parent you're responding to.
      Are you referring to the earlier discussion explaining how the word "liberal" in America means something quite different in other countries?

    72. Re:Good. by HiThere · · Score: 1

      Actually, depending on the size of the nation this is quite reasonable. In the US one could say "within the state" and be reasonable. It's not such a good idea in California as in Texas, but in Rhode Island it's clearly reasonable.

      The problem is "What speed is high speed rail?" There are speeds at which this is just silly. (One example is the hyper-sonic rail being developed in China that's going to need a vacuum tube enclosing the rail to be able to work.) With careful design you could probably get up to 300 kph (that's about 200 mph) reasonably. But you'd need to straighten a lot of curves, and you couldn't stop very often, so you'd need a lot of sidings, and probably even lots of places where the tracks were doubled. You'd also need separate grade for the rapid trains, unless you re-engineered ALL the slow trains to fit the wider tracks that the rapid trains would require.

      P.S.: If you're going to do this, it might pay to put in a bit extra time and effort and design trains that can drop and add cars without slowing down. This means each car needs motors in its wheels (well the carriages that hold the wheels) so it can speed up and slow down. Then the main train would (nearly) never stop. Different cars would have different destinations, and people would need to move to the correct car once it joined the train. This makes baggage handling quite a problem, so you'ld probably need to send your baggage on ahead of you by a couple of days, or wait a couple of days for it to join you.

      But do note that 300 Kph is a lot slower than an airplane, so if you're going a long distance. it will take longer. Also note that the system would need to be highly automated.

      I actually think it's a quite good idea, but you have no idea of the up front costs that you are talking about. Even demonstration lines tend to run into horrendous cost overruns. (Of course, they often tend to be too bleeding edge...but that's not the only reason. Cost overruns happen even in well understood processes, like freeway construction.)

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    73. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd be satisfied if we just replaced all air within Congress with high-speed rail...

    74. Re:Good. by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      Individuals seem to be doing great, actually - most companies doing residential installations have no shortage of customers. It's the centralized power generation that's stuck on fossil fuels.

    75. Re:Good. by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 1

      Also, read up on the massive wars and death in Africa the "electronic age" has brought...it's not just solar panels. Ethnic cleansing due to fighting of rare-earth mines in various countries...every time anyone uses their phone, we should all remember people died to us those minerals.

    76. Re:Good. by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 1

      People also seem to lack a grasp of geography, citing "well, this country did XYZ with high-speed rail, why can't the US?" If the US was the same size as Japan, Germany, or wherever then this complaint would be valid. Japan has a MAX distance of 1,869 miles; the US is 2,680 miles and this is straight through the Rocky Mountains. Same kind of false analogy comparing Germany's Autobahn...if we in the US replicated it, it might span a state or two. We have "single highways" (like I-90 at 3000+ miles), which is more than 1/3 of the entire Autobahn. RELATIVE SCALE, people! lol

    77. Re:Good. by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 2

      Modern people would be surprised with what a huge Bronze-age slave system can build! Combining the elite of the non-slave stone masons and a vast quarrying slave caste can accomplish quite advanced buildings and infrastructure. Much of these buildings are far more resilient and permanent than what we currently build...we are still trying to replicate the "Roman cement" that lasts for thousands of years; just recently we realized it has something to do with the volcanic ash used in it, but their bridges will far outlast even our best steel bridges.

    78. Re:Good. by bingoUV · · Score: 1

      You're confused. The year is 2014, not 42.

      --
      Bingo Dictionary - Pragmatist, n. A myopic idealist.
    79. Re:Good. by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      What "Bronze-age slave system" are you talking about? Surely not Old Kingdom Egypt, given that they didn't use slaves for building projects. Also, the metal we use is easily recyclable, unlike stone, and the "resilient and permanent" buildings you're talking about are mostly gone anyway; just because some of them are comparatively well preserved doesn't mean that it is the majority of them that stood the test of time.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    80. Re:Good. by dave420 · · Score: 1

      Some of the worst roads I've ever seen were in the US. Shocking stuff.

    81. Re:Good. by dave420 · · Score: 1

      Which all makes sense, but seeing as the US can't even get high-speed rail to work in areas with lots of nearby cities, your argument doesn't hold much water. It would help the US if people stopped trying to excuse its short-comings as some unique characteristic. Getting high-speed rail in New England should be incredibly feasible, but somehow that hasn't happened. Relative scale indeed - it works both ways.

    82. Re:Good. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Many factories are heavy electricity users, so they would benefit from solar panels by decreasing their electric bills.

      Right, but they won't benefit from being able to sell back power during the weekend when they're not using it if the utilities don't have to buy back their power. Or, for that matter, the time from 5pm-7pm when there's still useful output.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    83. Re:Good. by bbsalem · · Score: 1

      Reserves are not production, they are an estimate of what is possible to extract using available technology.

      The Monterey Shale is a silica-rich sulfur-rich unit of Middle Miocene age that probably formed in off-shore abyssal silt at the foot of the continental slope. Its current distribution is due to displacement along the San Andreas system which moved some of it, including the type locality in Monterey County as much as 350 KM NW on the west side of the SAF (On the Salinian Block) . Originally, in Miocene time, the environment of deposition was mostly in what is today Southern California including a large region the south end of the Great Valley which was a deep sea environment open to the south before the creation of the Tehachapi and Temblor Mountains. These were thrust up by an effort of the SAF to strighten itself out after the main shear zone jumped east along the Gulf of California and Salton Trough about 6 MYA.

      The reason to give this thumbnail of the geology is to point out that unlike the continuous layer-cake geology of the oil shales of the Mid-West, where hydraulic fracturing is economical, the tectonically complex geology of the Monterey Shale may very much limit the productivity of the frakking technology that is being applied to it. At the same time oil has been produced for decades from places where basins and thrust faults are traps, mostly in Southern California, but the reserves are somewhat depleted by now. Many people have forgotten that for a time in the early decades of the 20th California was the leading oil producer in the country before the big discoveries were made in Texas and Alaska. Oil in Southern California generated the capital the funded the movie industry, and is probably the driving force behind Conservative politics there.

      Estimating reserves is a black art that can change rapidly due to economic factors. so if investors were interested in buying leases on the Monterey Shale in California thinking that the geology was the same as out in North Dakota and they financed wells and paid to inject fluids and expected to get the same production, then like many events in economic history, the claims and the me-too factor was over stated. I can understand because of the geology how the pay off to produce from the Monterey might be less than optimists expect. Even so, maybe producing from the Great Valley part of the formation might be less risky owing to the more continuous geology of the region east of the SAF. Still, production from the Borderland Province as in the Ventura Basin from the Monterey has been fairly continuous if not enough to meet the rosey expectations. and that is more traditional oil production than hydraulic fracturing.

    84. Re:Good. by dataspel · · Score: 1

      You must never have driven through the Chinese countryside. Count your blessings.

    85. Re:Good. by DrStoooopid · · Score: 1

      I-40, I-44, I-70, I-80, I-10...take your pick....and those are the federal roads, the state highways are in even worse shape.

      Get of your mom's basement and take a trip somewhere, you'll see.

      --
      There are 2 groups of people you can make fun of on the Internet without fear of attack. The illiterate, and the Amish.
    86. Re:Good. by SpankiMonki · · Score: 1

      Reserves are not production, they are an estimate of what is possible to extract using available technology.

      [snippage of a lot of smart stuff]

      I'm trying to figure out whether you agree with me or not. You don't have to read my post too closely to see that I'm asserting two points: 1) the global market for oil won't be budged by this "news", and 2) The effect on the CA economy by this "news" will not be felt for a while (if ever).

      In any case, my reply to GGP was aimed at debunking the notion that anyone (consumers) will feel an impact at the pump in the short/near term.

      If you agree, great! If you were just trying to show off your knowledge, mission accomplished. Otherwise, I've read your reply several times and there doesn't seem to be a direct refutation of my assertions. Try again?

    87. Re:Good. by HiThere · · Score: 1

      You can't get high speed rail to work and also make lots of stops. It doesn't work. It's best if you never stop at all. Trains have a HUGE amount of momentum. The Los Angelas to Las Vegas high speed rail makes a certain amount of sense, as a demonstration project. But the plans that I heard appeared to come too close to the bleeding edge. (No, I don't consider Mag-Lev to be reasonable.) But there's a reasonable amount of traffic from Los Angelas to Los Vegas, and it's only planned to stop at the end points. This means you only have to accelerate the trains once per trip.

      Please note that frequent stops even has a big impact on local commuter trains that are DESIGNED to stop frequently, and are far from high speed.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    88. Re:Good. by Optali · · Score: 1
      Oh Noes!! :_(

      This is so pro-AGW

      It is a LYE, a lye by the IPCC who is goign t otax us and you know, man-bear-pig and Obama is all bad... nOOOOOOOOOO! :___((

      Q: Hey... WTF has AGW to do with that? A: Easy: the very same measures that are proposed for fight against AGW are also thought to reduce dependency on oil and gas.

      But don't let this stupid reality crash a nice party, remember: IPCC is EVIL, Global Warming is a scam set up by SPECTRA and Dr No to tax the US citizen (I'm lucky to live in Europe). And the most important truth of all; South Park never lies!!!

      --
      -- 29A the number of the Beast
    89. Re:Good. by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure if he's disagreeing with you or agreeing. What you say is fairly moot because TFA is talking about "reserves" in the technical meaning of the word in the context of finite resource exploitation, as is bbsalem ; while you seem to be thinking of the word in the language of the streets. If TFA and bbsalem's comment had been written in Esperanto, and your reply in Estonian, the mismatch wouldn't have been any less.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    90. Re:Good. by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      A 50 second summary of the relevant geology. Thanks.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  2. Keystone XL by Prune · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I wonder if this might change the Obama administration's calculus and their continued delays on the proposed pipeline.

    --
    "Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
    1. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am sure that it will only change the commentary from the sidelines.

    2. Re:Keystone XL by phantomfive · · Score: 0

      I wonder if this might change the Obama administration's calculus and their continued delays on the proposed pipeline.

      No. AFAICT the Obama administration never wants the pipeline to be built, and will delay it as long as possible. Obama is looking to the future, solar, wind, other renewables, and electric cars. The higher the cost of energy, the sooner we'll get there.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is due to multiple factors such as the more complex rippled geology of the shale and over-hyped recovery estimates by investors.

      They mean the industry pushed for this and bought them off to overestimate this shale in order to hurry it along for drilling. I like how they pretend it was completely their fault.

      They also have the Marcellus Shale they've been drilling away at, in my state Pennsylvania alone the state will look like the middles east desert by the time they are done drilling. Actually not exactly like it, but you can't go anywhere in the western part of the state without seeing them drilling or having wells finished. It is as bad as the churches and bars which are about every 2 miles.

      As far as the XL pipeline, you bring up a point, maybe this report came out on purpose [of course bought and paid for by the ole trusty oil/gas industry] in order to try and bluff the Administration into building this idiotic pipeline.

    4. Re:Keystone XL by KingOfBLASH · · Score: 1

      As far as the XL pipeline, you bring up a point, maybe this report came out on purpose [of course bought and paid for by the ole trusty oil/gas industry] in order to try and bluff the Administration into building this idiotic pipeline.

      :: begin conspiracy theory ::

      The first step of rehab is removing the addictive substance (in a controlled manner in the case of those things that kill you if you go cold turkey). Let's tell the world that all the oil has disappeared to aliens, and for future energy needs we MUST stop depending on dead dinosaur fuel.

      :: end of transmission ::

    5. Re:Keystone XL by Mashiki · · Score: 0, Troll

      So you're saying that you support expensive energy, and further with that creating misery for those who can't afford cheap energy? If Obama was really looking towards the future he'd be open arms on nuke plants, but he isn't.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    6. Re:Keystone XL by thegarbz · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Obama is looking to the future of death by oil carrying rail car.

      Seriously I work in oil and gas. There pipeline will do NOTHING to hinder or advance the state of green energy. People have product and will sell product and there are plenty of people who want the product given it is sold at an incredible discount to standard oil. One way or the other the oil will get to its customers.

      And the result is:
      2008: 9500 railcar loads of oil in the USA.
      2014: forward estimates indicate 650000 railcar loads of oil in the USA.

      No that wasn't a typo. If you're going to transport oil you may as well do it safely. If Obama wants to actually push an environmental agenda then do so economically rather than playing with people's lives and potential oil spills.

    7. Re:Keystone XL by peragrin · · Score: 4, Interesting

      pipeline's leak lead to bigger spills.

      Every drop of oil that goes through the keystone pipeline will be refined and then shipped to Europe. The companies behind the pipeline have stated as much.

      The overall effect on of the pipeline is something like .05% of the world's demand. it isn't but a drop in the bucket.

      Smart people would drain the oil away from the middle east first and save the Canadian oil for when things get bad in 50 years.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    8. Re:Keystone XL by L4t3r4lu5 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Smart people would be investing in nuclear energy, be it fission or fusion, and increasing the throughput of the grid to support fast charging of electric vehicles.

      --
      Finally had enough. Come see us over at https://soylentnews.org/
    9. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or it's a subtler tactic. Much as the Iraqi war has effectively kept the Iraq oil reserves under-used and in reserve for future demands, keeping the various pipelines unbuilt until a later, more urgent need does slow US and worldwide energy over consumption. It's why you don't put the whole cake on the table for a bunch of greedy slobs: they'll eat it all immediately, then complain there's no food left even if there's vegetables and fruit. So you dole it out, slowly, along with the veggies.

    10. Re:Keystone XL by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Quite a few smart people, including me, are profoundly disturbed by the safety problems with nuclear fuels and by their limited reserves. Refining U-235 is quite expensive to fuel grade is quite expensive, and quite toxic. Moreover, the current reserves will only supply about 200 years of energy _at current rates of consumption_. That's currently roughly 12% of world energy production, for roughly 6 billion people, with many in dire poverty and quite low energy consumption.

      If we assume that nuclear consumption grows by a factor of 4 due to increased population and increased reliance on nuclear fuels, and reduced by a factor of 2 by switching to breeder reactors and improving efficiency, it's still only a 100 year supply. And as reserves drop, it's going to become much more expensive to mine as the more accessible reserves are consumed,

      Fusion has _never_ worked as a fuel source. The main sources of the requisite deuterium and/or tritium are the ordinary fission reactors. Given the limited availability and difficulty of refining the necessary deuterium and/or tritium from any natural source, it is unlikely to ever _be_ an effective fuel source. Even the cold fusion experiments, if successful, promised no solution to providing the necessary fuel source. So one should not rely on fusion ever being useful for energy until it is either able to use plain hydrogen. (Yes, the sun uses plain hydrogen: no, it's not a method that can fit in a normal Earth based fusion reactor.)

      Perhaps, in theory, one could refine fusion fuels from solar wind, which is unusually rich in such isotopes. But if one has a large collecting surface in orbit to gather solar wind, why not use that as a direct solar mirror and gather the much higher density and safer optical energy for ordinary solar power? A 100 meter diameter solar mirror gathers approximately 40 MW of power. With typical American energy consumption at approximately 1 kW, that is enough energy for roughly 40,000 Americans.

    11. Re:Keystone XL by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 2

      So you're saying that you support expensive energy, and further with that creating misery for those who can't afford cheap energy? .

      No, he said Obama does. He didn't make any judgement.

    12. Re:Keystone XL by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's currently roughly 12% of world energy production, for roughly 6 billion people, with many in dire poverty and quite low energy consumption.

      I teared up a bit.

      But hey, lets propose solutions that don't exist yet rather than one that's already offset more CO2 contribution than we can hope solar and wind will in the next 10 years. Gathering solar wind? Yeah, lets do that while many are in dire poverty.

      We need realistic and practicable solutions that we can afford. There are plenty of ways to keep the nuclear fuel supply for hundreds of years. By then, maybe we'll have your solar windmill.

    13. Re:Keystone XL by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 5, Insightful

      So you're saying that you support expensive energy, and further with that creating misery for those who can't afford cheap energy?

      He's saying that "cheap energy" is a delusion - one fostered with temporary geological realities and utter lack of regard for any externalities - and that the sooner you snap out of that delusion, the better for everyone involved.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    14. Re:Keystone XL by Bill_the_Engineer · · Score: 5, Insightful

      So you're saying that you support expensive energy, and further with that creating misery for those who can't afford cheap energy?

      If that truly was a concern for the pro-petroleum folks then why do we export so much of our gasoline and keep our domestic price high? FYI, the Keystone XL pipeline goal is to move the crude oil to refineries on the gulf coast for export.

      If we want to take the long view and lower the cost of energy for everyone we need to spend more money toward finding alternative and more abundant sources of energy. This short-term strategy of keeping the status-quo and using the current stock of "cheap energy" does nothing but make petroleum investors rich, further damage the environment, and delay the inevitable to the point where the poor will suffer even more than they supposedly do today.

      --
      These comments are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of my employer or colleagues...
    15. Re:Keystone XL by necro81 · · Score: 2

      So you're saying that you support expensive energy, and further with that creating misery for those who can't afford cheap energy?

      Well, making things expensive is one surefire way to ensure that people use less of it, which is something that the U.S. drastically needs to do. Humanity as a whole has gotten a lot of mileage from cheap (i.e., fossil) energy, but I think we have to grapple with the notion that we can't afford to do that forever. If energy prices rise, there's tremendous pressure to use less of it. That doesn't mean going back to the stone age; inexpensive technology exists to allow the U.S. to have the same economic output with much lower energy input. We're just wasteful and too short-sighted (i.e., don't have the proper incentives) to do better.

    16. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Citation needed.

    17. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Moreover, the current reserves will only supply about 200 years of energy _at current rates of consumption_.

      Have you taken into account that current fission reactors produce less than 1% of the available energy? Breeder reactors can fix that by producing up to 100 times as much energy from the same fuel. That 200 year figure should be thousands. NIMBY and proliferation fears have slowed progress on breeders. The first (experiential) reactor was built in 1951.

      My bet is that once reprocessing takes place, energy use will soar to compensate. Who wouldn't want a beamed power electric flying car?

    18. Re:Keystone XL by L4t3r4lu5 · · Score: 2

      the current reserves will only supply about 200 years of energy

      How long will fossil fuels last? How much less carbon will be pumped into the atmosphere by reducing fossil fuel usage, supplanting demand with nuclear?

      100 years ago we didn't have an electrical distribution grid. 200 years ago we didn't have electric generators (Faraday invented the dynamo in 1831). I'm willing to bet fusion will be old hat before then.

      --
      Finally had enough. Come see us over at https://soylentnews.org/
    19. Re:Keystone XL by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

      So we can store the Radio Active Waste in your backyard?

    20. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Antique Geekmeister > Quite a few smart people, including me, are profoundly disturbed by the safety problems with nuclear fuels and by their limited reserves. Refining U-235 is quite expensive to fuel grade is quite expensive, and quite toxic.

      Don't 4G reactors solve the issue of fuel?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor

    21. Re:Keystone XL by Demonantis · · Score: 1

      That is a fantastic statistic until you realize most other minerals have less assured resource potential. Companies only start exploring for deposits when it makes sense so there is always about 100 years of found exploitable deposits. In the crust uranium is estimated to be as common as tin and zinc. It is a limited amount, but it isn't like you make it seem. Ideally we should be moving to solar power, but nuclear is viable in the current term and is much better than oil or gas for the environment.

    22. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's called nuclear and it's blocked at every turn by Envirowackos.

    23. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, the Obama administration is blocking the pipeline to protect the CO2 spewing, heavily polluting train business which currently transports all that oil. The trains which are owned by and very profitable for George Soros.

    24. Re:Keystone XL by andyring · · Score: 1

      That is true, but at the same time, leaks/spills/releases from tank cars are about 1/3 that of pipelines.

      Not saying we don't need pipelines. We need Keystone XL and other pipelines, and the ability to move crude by rail. Both are enormously beneficial.

    25. Re:Keystone XL by dbIII · · Score: 1

      No it's real as any windfall. The delusion is thinking it is always going to be easy even in the face of the reality of being driven to more difficult sources like shale and oil reserves in difficult to reach places. There's people that think the easy windfalls are infinite.

    26. Re:Keystone XL by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Smart people would be investing in nuclear energy

      From how the banks treat it they do not appear to employ a single one of those smart people.
      Civilian nuclear is going nowhere until we have something small enough that it doesn't need a government to pour billions into it.

    27. Re:Keystone XL by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 2

      Why, XL pipeline does nothing for the USA. That's oil headed to China.

    28. Re:Keystone XL by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      So you support government subsidies to oil companies that make quarterly NET profits in the billions of dollars rage. Nice one Zippy.

    29. Re:Keystone XL by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      Neither are government subsidies to oil companies.

    30. Re:Keystone XL by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      Actually it's blocked by bankers. Banks do not want to lend money to build nuclear power plants. It has nothing to do with environmentalists. Moron.

    31. Re:Keystone XL by jamstar7 · · Score: 2

      I wonder if this might change the Obama administration's calculus and their continued delays on the proposed pipeline.

      Keystone XL won't do a damned thing for the taxpayer at the gas pump. It's designed to take the dirtiest most corrosive form of oil from American-leased fields in Canada to refineries in Texas so they can be shipped overseas for more profit. If they REALLY wanted to use the oil in the US, they wouldn't be piping it to Texas. They'd be piping it to refineries in the north.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    32. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Externalities: The benzene in your water.

    33. Re:Keystone XL by nojayuk · · Score: 1

      Which refineries in the north? The Texas and Gulf refineries have underutilised capacity especially for the heavy form of oil that is the end product of the Athabasca tarsands production. That's why the producers want to pipe it across America north to south, it's cheaper than building new refineries in Canada and it guarantees jobs and profits for US-based operations.

      As for shipping the refinery product to Europe or China, if the US consumers are willing to pay the going price for the refinery output then it will sell in America. If other folks abroad are willing to pay more even with the shipping costs well that's capitalism for you, you know, free movement of goods and materials, one of the lynchpins of an unregulated market.

      Of course you do realise that the Athabasca reserves are not American property but in fact the product of a foreign country being imported to the US, that free market capitalism at work? Why should the end result of processing foreign oil be reserved to subsidise US consumers when the source material is imported?

    34. Re:Keystone XL by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      So you're saying that you support expensive energy, and further with that creating misery for those who can't afford cheap energy? If Obama was really looking towards the future he'd be open arms on nuke plants, but he isn't.

      If you want expensive energy nuclear is the way to go.

    35. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and reduced by a factor of 2 by switching to breeder reactors and improving efficiency

      The non-fissile U-238 that's converted and used in a breeder reactor is 138 times as common as the U-235 that's used in conventional reactors. Why are you assuming only a factor of 2?

      Refining U-235 is quite expensive

      It's *very* expensive per kg - but it doesn't take much uranium to run a reactor. What counts is the cost per kilowatt-hour. From here, it looks like it's 0.66 c/kWh. For comparison, I'm paying 22.0 c/kWh for power. In other words, the cost of the uranium is a tiny fraction (~3%) of the cost of power - most of it goes into building and running the plant. So the price of uranium could double, and it would hardly have any effect on the cost of nuclear power.

    36. Re:Keystone XL by strong_epoxy · · Score: 1

      Fusion has _never_ worked as a fuel source.

      ...except for the Sun...

    37. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nuclear is better for the environment... Provided your nuclear power plant is properly built, preventive maintenance is strictly applied, your personnel are always kept well trained, and the bean counters are told to STFU.

    38. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Josh Fox? Is that you?

      Didn't you hear the EPA says no such thing from fracking?

    39. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Quite a few smart people, including me, are profoundly disturbed by the safety problems with nuclear fuels and by their limited reserves. Refining U-235 is quite expensive to fuel grade is quite expensive, and quite toxic. Moreover, the current reserves will only supply about 200 years of energy _at current rates of consumption_. That's currently roughly 12% of world energy production, for roughly 6 billion people, with many in dire poverty and quite low energy consumption.

      If we assume that nuclear consumption grows by a factor of 4 due to increased population and increased reliance on nuclear fuels, and reduced by a factor of 2 by switching to breeder reactors and improving efficiency, it's still only a 100 year supply. And as reserves drop, it's going to become much more expensive to mine as the more accessible reserves are consumed,

      Fusion has _never_ worked as a fuel source. The main sources of the requisite deuterium and/or tritium are the ordinary fission reactors. Given the limited availability and difficulty of refining the necessary deuterium and/or tritium from any natural source, it is unlikely to ever _be_ an effective fuel source. Even the cold fusion experiments, if successful, promised no solution to providing the necessary fuel source. So one should not rely on fusion ever being useful for energy until it is either able to use plain hydrogen. (Yes, the sun uses plain hydrogen: no, it's not a method that can fit in a normal Earth based fusion reactor.)

      Perhaps, in theory, one could refine fusion fuels from solar wind, which is unusually rich in such isotopes. But if one has a large collecting surface in orbit to gather solar wind, why not use that as a direct solar mirror and gather the much higher density and safer optical energy for ordinary solar power? A 100 meter diameter solar mirror gathers approximately 40 MW of power. With typical American energy consumption at approximately 1 kW, that is enough energy for roughly 40,000 Americans.

      Whats wrong with using Thorium instead? Much more plentiful.

    40. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That's currently roughly 12% of world energy production, for roughly 6 billion people, with many in dire poverty and quite low energy consumption.

      I teared up a bit.

      But hey, lets propose solutions that don't exist yet rather than one that's already offset more CO2 contribution than we can hope solar and wind will in the next 10 years. Gathering solar wind? Yeah, lets do that while many are in dire poverty.

      We need realistic and practicable solutions that we can afford. There are plenty of ways to keep the nuclear fuel supply for hundreds of years. By then, maybe we'll have your solar windmill.

      Whats wrong with using Thorium. Its much more plentiful and doesnt have near the waste concerns.

    41. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Quite a few smart people, including me, are profoundly disturbed by the safety problems with nuclear fuels and by their limited reserves. Refining U-235 is quite expensive to fuel grade is quite expensive, and quite toxic. Moreover, the current reserves will only supply about 200 years of energy _at current rates of consumption_. That's currently roughly 12% of world energy production, for roughly 6 billion people, with many in dire poverty and quite low energy consumption.

      Yes, you fucking luddite retard, because U-235 is the only game in town, and we all know that rare earth metals are in infinite supply and there are no horrible byproducts of manufacturing solar cells.

      YOU are the problem here.

    42. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Refining U-235 is quite expensive to fuel grade is quite expensive, and quite toxic.

      25% ore grade. 30% ore grade. That in deposits that sit idle because uranium price is currently too cheap to bother with.

      As for toxic, sorry, it's less toxic to deal with few hundred tons of ore a month, than few millions of tons of ore on some heap leach that's done in almost all mining (copper, gold, etc.)

      current reserves will only supply about 200 years of energy _at current rates of consumption_.

      Please. There is virtually unlimited uranium at $300/lb. That's the cost of getting it out of sea water. Until then, we have thousands of years of fuel, especially with fast neutron reactors - those can use all that "waste" and use it directly for fuel.

      There is less exploration now because prices are too cheap.

      Fusion has _never_ worked as a fuel source.

      Yes, we never really finished the research.... Kind of like saying "space travel has never worked to carry man to other planets, so fuck that, stop sending these rockets up and wasting money".

      Given the limited availability and difficulty of refining the necessary deuterium and/or tritium from any natural source, it is unlikely to ever _be_ an effective fuel source.

      I'm going to stop reading at this point because you have clearly *no idea* what things cost. You can buy heavy water (deuterium) for $500/L. Or $2000/gal. It's basically free for purposes of a fusion reactor

      You can easily get more than enough tritium from heavy water reactors. Actually, until recently, the Canadian ones just vented tritium because there was no market for it.

    43. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1. Congratulating yourself on how smart you are? Really?
      2. Thorium seems to be an actual possibility. But all I know what I've heard from other people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9M__yYbsZ4

    44. Re:Keystone XL by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      Seriously I work in oil and gas.

      Dude, working at a Mobil station doesn't really make you an expert...

    45. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      there is no future in part time (solar or wind) power.

    46. Re:Keystone XL by geekoid · · Score: 1

      "Fusion has _never_ worked as a fuel source"
      hahahaha.

      Let me introduce you to my friend:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...

      So we now it works. how does 7850 sq meter get you 40 MW at a 1000 watts per sqr. meter?

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    47. Re:Keystone XL by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Civilian Nuclear never should go any where. It should all be government run and regulated. Removes the bonuses and financial incentive for ignoring issues.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    48. Re:Keystone XL by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Removing incentive for green energy hinder green energy; however build a pipeline across america so foreign companies can make money is really just a bad idea.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    49. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No. AFAICT the Obama administration never wants *this* pipleline to be built, and will delay it as long as possible. Obama is looking to destablize syria so that the nabucco pipleine can be built in order to pump ukranian shale gas to western europe and isolate russia from the european gas markets and simultaneously line the pockets of US defence contractors who are losing business with the loss of iraq/afganistan money, while also expanding bretton woods petrodollar and eu trade hegemony eastwards at the benefit of US and european banks. The more effective the 'peaceful green energy' and 'evil dictator' disinformation and propaganda smokescreen, the sooner we'll get there.

    50. Re:Keystone XL by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      So we can store the Radio Active Waste in your backyard?

      Not my problem that American's haven't figured out how to recycle radioactive waste. We have in Canada, and as a useful tip I live 62mi from the 2nd largest nuclear power generating station in the world.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    51. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ya...bankers are filing all those lawsuits.

      Fucking clueless cunt.

    52. Re:Keystone XL by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      He's saying that "cheap energy" is a delusion - one fostered with temporary geological realities and utter lack of regard for any externalities - and that the sooner you snap out of that delusion, the better for everyone involved.

      Sorry, cheap energy is not a delusion. It's one that's easily creatable, as long as massive red tape and nimby's aren't involved. The sooner you snap out of your own delusion that expensive energy is "good" the better humanity will be. Then again, the same people who support expensive energy also usually line up stating that expensive food is a good thing.

      Plain and simple: Human misery does not create a peaceful and stable world.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    53. Re:Keystone XL by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      If you want expensive energy nuclear is the way to go.

      Really? Let's look at the numbers from my own province where ~70% of our power is done by nuclear.

      ~1.3c/KwH - Hydro-electric
      ~2.3c/KwH - Nuclear
      ~3.2c/KwH - NG
      ~4.4c/KwH - Coal
      ~68.8c/KwH - Wind
      ~72.1c/KwH - Solar

      Perhaps we should stop selling cheap electricity to you americans, and you can get a taste of what expensive electricity is really like. After all, we sell it to you at a bulk rate of 4.4c/KwH right now.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    54. Re:Keystone XL by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      So you support government subsidies to oil companies that make quarterly NET profits in the billions of dollars rage. Nice one Zippy.

      So you support paying FiT programs, that pay green energy producers, to not produce electricity, and on top of that you support paying them at 1000% the cost compared to other energy sources. Nice one, perhaps you should stop sucking on all the propaganda.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    55. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Environmentalists welcome nuclear. It is the "green" nuts filing endless lawsuits and related delays with the permitting process that scare away investors. If the permitting process were streamlined and the uncertainty removed, costs would plummet and financing would be trivial. We know this is possible, as it once was and still is elsewhere.

    56. Re:Keystone XL by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Geography fail.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    57. Re:Keystone XL by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Europe. The Chinese oil is going down the pipeline to BC. Pacific ocean vs Atlantic.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    58. Re:Keystone XL by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      Except that oil will not end up being used in the US, it will be for export.

    59. Re:Keystone XL by KonoWatakushi · · Score: 1

      Expensive, yet still far less so than wind and solar. With nuclear, most of the cost is not inherent in the technology, but arises from the endless litigation and delays, along with the atrophied supply chain and construction industry. Beyond that, the costs of nuclear will be dramatically reduced once molten salt reactors are commercialized.

      Deployment of nuclear faces difficult, yet addressable problems. On the other hand, the economics of renewables are limited by the laws of nature, and those are not mutable.

    60. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nuclear fusion is a hippie pipe dream. There is only one kind of fusion reactor that has ever been built and successfully tested that produced more energy than it took in by a significant margin. It's called a hydrogen bomb. Fine tuning tiny low energy plasmas to eke out a few neutrons isn't going to translate into useful power in this or any lifetime. The useful potential, economics, and safety of nuclear fusion power are all vastly oversold because the scale in terms of size and energy is completely fucking wrong, and it's time to stop believing in this fucking nonsense because all these fusion snake oil salesmen have done is breed apathy and complacency among so-called technologically literate people who ought to fucking know better. Fuck nuclear fusion, fuck Bussard, fuck Lerner, fuck the Tokamak, fuck the National Ignition Facility, and fuck you dear reader if you think that fusion is going to be the solution to anyone's problems.

      As for nuclear fission, saying that we can get by without breeder reactors is another hippie pipe dream, and the people who bring up the usual scare tactics - usually proliferation - about breeders need to shove it. On U-233 breeding, if it were really that easy to weaponize it, given the availability of its inputs (Th-232) you'd think that someone would already have done it. It also logically follows that it's impossible to keep everyone from trying since this shit is everywhere, there's thorium laid down in every corner of the world. For that matter you can get actual uranium out of seawater with ribbons of treated plastic so I don't see what the point of fretting is now that Pandora's box is wide fucking open. On plutonium breeding it's the same issue - if it's that easy, why aren't people everywhere trying it out and how do we intend to stop them? And as to waste management, if we were actually allowed to operate reactors with a high rate of burn-up (many of which are breeders) we might not eliminate the problem but we could sure as hell diminish the scope of it in volume and time while shrinking an already burgeoning waste inventory that's ripe for weapons manufacture. The politics of nuclear power are literally fucking insane and I can't believe that in twenty-fucking-fourteen we're still debating this. Bring back the fast reactors for crying out loud, congress could be drowning from rising seas and they'd still be blowing smoke over whether it's more prudent to protect the coal industry directly or to protect the coal industry by promoting renewables, without so much as a nod to nuclear energy.

      Speaking of renewables, history doesn't give credit for late work. We've been waiting sixty fucking years for this shit to deliver as promised, about as long as we've been waiting for fusion. Now, surely solar panels and windmills are much, much, much further along than fusion is - they actually generate useful power - but nowhere save in very specific parts of the world where the economics and availability of resources are just ideal have we seen renewable energy translate into economical power, and that's the only factor that's going to drive adoption. Sorry. I might not be a fan of people who worship the invisible hand but you can't wave a magic wand and make economics just disappear. Now contrary to what you might have expected I don't consider renewable energy yet another hippie pipe dream, but in its current technological state (one which stubbornly refuses to budge despite an endless procession of 'breakthroughs' and 'game changers' and other vernacular for fraud) transitioning to an economy principally fed by renewable energy is one. If putting a lid on global warming and keeping energy affordable, particularly for the world's most vulnerable, is a priority of ours then the time for renewable energy to shine was yesterday. We need fission.

    61. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Destroying the economy and the environment are key to the Obama Plan (OP)

    62. Re:Keystone XL by RyuSoma · · Score: 1

      "Smart" people get rich quick, and in 50 years they won't give a shit where the oil comes from because they're already rich and/or dead. Clearly your definition of 'smart' is defective, it seems to include some sort of moral component or altruism.

    63. Re:Keystone XL by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

      OK, I'll bite. Is there a web page out there that confirms this? It would be cool if so.

    64. Re:Keystone XL by HiThere · · Score: 1

      The problem with nuclear plants are that they are hideously expensive. This has a multidude of causes, and most of them have potential, but unproven, solutions. But what we have right now is...

      NOBODY has properly budgeted to decomission a nuclear plant. One result it that current plants are being run considerbly beyond their designed life. This isn't necessarily a problem, but it sure hasn't been proven that it's not a problem. The extension process is too highly politicized to allow that. Some plants clearly need to be shut down and decommissioned, but nobody has been able to do it. There isn't any approved storage site for high level nuclear waste, so the current plants are storing it locally. This is potentially disasterous. Etc. And if a storage site existed, current attempts to decommission obsolete plants seem to indicate that the cost estimates being used underestimate the cost of decomissioning a plant by at least a factor of 5, and probably considerably more. (That said, there haven't been enough attempts to come to a valid estimate on emperical grounds. And industry estimates have been nearly worthless.)

      N.B.: I am not an expert on this, I merely follow the news. If you can show examples of where this is wrong I would be interrested.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    65. Re:Keystone XL by stdarg · · Score: 1

      Refining U-235 is quite expensive to fuel grade is quite expensive

      Sure, to you and me, but to the industry fuel cost is a small percentage of the cost of nuclear energy. It's not expensive.

      and quite toxic.

      Yes, but at least it's concentrated. Nothing's perfect.

    66. Re:Keystone XL by stdarg · · Score: 1

      Any process can be made expensive if you try, which opponents of nuclear power are certainly doing. Nuclear has been made expensive in part by the ludicrous requirements for decommissioning. Decommissioning doesn't need to be expensive unless a nuclear plant was built in the middle of a city. They should not be built there.

    67. Re:Keystone XL by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      pipeline's leak lead to bigger spills.

      Pipeline leak detection systems are trivial and easily implemented. Pipelines are also quite easy to maintain and inspect with an inspection system largely automated though intelligent pigging. The only difficulty is scheduling an outage for a short period to do it but even this becomes surprisingly easy when the government says "You will check, test and maintain at this frequency or we're taking away your toy". Take profit out of the maintenance equation and you'll have one of the safest and least damaging to the environment methods of getting crude across your country.

      Compare that to how many rail cars on the tracks at the moment with how many welds, subjected to how many shocks? Not to mention the already identified complete lack of safety standards and inspection regimes. If the pipeline catastrophically fails once every year and is shutdown for repair, in several years it still wouldn't spill as much oil as the tanker accidents have in the past year alone.

    68. Re:Keystone XL by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Refinery engineer but hey, an easy mistake to make when you're trolling the internet.

    69. Re:Keystone XL by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      Well yeah, I kind of assume. I was just making a joke. I didn't actually assume you were talking about working at a gas station.

    70. Re:Keystone XL by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      I'm just wondering how foreign you think these companies are. Care to list a few that will profit? Oh and don't forget the profits made by USA refining operations.

      While we're at it, just look at what is happening to that oil at the moment. The oil is still moving and USA refineries are still working hard on Canada's shale, making an unfathomable amount of money on crude that is heavily discounted.

      The question is how many towns are you going to destroy and how much of the environment are you going to wreak through derailments along the way?

    71. Re:Keystone XL by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 1

      or, you could point them to that giant ball of hydrogen that works as a fuel source in the sky! Fusion _does_ work, obviously. We on Earth just haven't figured it out yet.

    72. Re:Keystone XL by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 1

      And a NEW pipeline would leak far less than the current 30-50 year-old pipes we have right now...

    73. Re:Keystone XL by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 1

      And here in Oklahoma, our electric utilities have decreed that "“When customers have the opportunity to reduce their use of a product or find another provider of such service, utility earnings growth is threatened," so now we have extra taxes on anyone who tries to generate their own electric and send their excess back to the grid.

      Personally, if I had a "non utility" power source, at this point I'd just say "well, screw you then" and not even bother trying to distribute back to the grid. Use the extra power to run a huge neon sign saying something like "THIS ELECTRICITY COULD BE YOUR IF NOT FOR PSO"...wouldn't be the first time a consumer has actively advertised against Oklahoma utility companies!

    74. Re:Keystone XL by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      > So we now it works. how does 7850 sq meter get you 40 MW at a 1000 watts per sqr. meter?

      I should have written out my math, I was interrupted. I estimated 2 W/cm^2 from old science experiments as a child, or 20,000 W/m^2. That yields 157,000,000 Watts for the entire array, or 157 MW, not 40 MW, as you correctly pointed out. Even at 10% efficieny, that would still yield a respectable 15 MW/mirror.

    75. Re:Keystone XL by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 1

      I totally feel you, in Oklahoma we now have 2-3+ fracking earthquakes a month; they started about a year or two ago. Instead of a dustbowl, this time we're going to make the whole state a giant sinkhole.

    76. Re:Keystone XL by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      We've figured out the basics of _that_ fusion source. But it does not scale down well. _All_ of the test fusion reactors use deuterium or tritium, not plain hydrogen.

    77. Re:Keystone XL by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      My point was not about their poverty: My point was that if and as they progress economically, they're also going to want more energy. I wasn't suggesting that solar wind was viable, only that it's probably the only to gather enough deuterium and tritium to satisfy the demands of fusion fuels if that technology is ever even _viable_. And if one is bothering to invest in large solar mirrors or gathering arrays, why not use them for direct solar power collection, which is workable with technology today.

    78. Re:Keystone XL by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      If that truly was a concern for the pro-petroleum folks then why do we export so much of our gasoline and keep our domestic price high? FYI, the Keystone XL pipeline goal is to move the crude oil to refineries on the gulf coast for export.

      Ok I nearly spat chunks when I saw this statement. Firstly you do not have high domestic gasoline price. You effectively have the lowest gasoline price in the western world beaten by countries with no safety standards, cheap disposable labour, or really heavy government intervention in the pricing scheme.

      This is also largely your problem. Why would anyone sell locally for your incredible prices when they could export to Europe and get far more for their money. Transportation costs are cheap when done in mass. Even if it adds a 50% premium to your price (which it doesn't) it is still about half the terminal gate price in European countries. That brings us to supply and demand. It doesn't make sense alter supply if demand is fixed only in one region. The USA has excess refining capacity. If they didn't export the local price would drop due to excess supply. What this does is cause the margains of refining to collapse as fixed cost per barrel remains unaffected, refineries to close, and the price to go up again. You can't fix it by throttling the supply chain either due to the same reason. The end result of such action would be a break even in price (you are talking about an internationally traded product, any massive domestic move on the price is temporary) while at the same time reducing manufacturing and GDP for the country.

      No good has ever come out of oversupplying the local petrol market. These distortions only serve to lose jobs and whack around the economics of refining, and to some degree the economics of production too given the USA's stance on crude exports.

    79. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Properly recycling fuel doesn't increase your supply by two, it increases it by about 50... That being said, yes nuclear power is a stopgap (possibly a _very_ long term stopgap) to acheive a fully renewable world power supply, because yes, we will ultimately run out of uranium and thorium...

    80. Re:Keystone XL by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      I assumed you were a troll. Let me retract that and giggle :-)

      I actually got a LOT of those comments when I first graduated. Everyone I talked to couldn't conceive that oil companies do anything other than magically make gas appear at a petrol station. The idea that there was a refinery in their city which supported a large engineering workforce was alien to them.

    81. Re:Keystone XL by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Do I really have to spell things out as if it is for a five year old and write "not for the army, navy, airforce or spooks" instead of "civilian"?
      The aboce sig is especially funny in this context.

    82. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We know you work in the oil and gas energy and will always put a positive spin on anything.

      Gasoline prices are kept high in the US despite domestic demands at historical lows thanks to exports. Also your statement about the US having "the lowest price in the western world beaten by countries with no safety safety standards" is so misleading its almost fraudulent. You conflated retail gas price paid at the pump with wholesale gas prices paid to the petroleum industry. The europeans pay more at the pump because of the larger amount of taxes combined with the cost of transporting the gasoline to its point of sale. Don't blame the US for not taxing their citizens at every opportunity.

    83. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would if you get your news from Clear Channel / Fox sources. What those guys don't tell you is that the Keystone pipeline is not, and was never, intended to provide oil of a quality that could be used in the United States. The idea of Keystone was to pipe low-quality dirty pet-coke crude from Canada to Gulf refineries for export to China, where pollution controls are much looser. Keystone oil cannot be used legally in the United States. Look it up.

    84. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, it's Obama's fault! IT'S FUCKING OBAMA'S FAULT! YES IT IS! YES! YES! YES! And it's not because he's an N-word! ! IT JUST IS!

      Thank you for this opportunity to clear that up.

    85. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We export oil that is of such low quality or that pollutes so badly that it cannot be burned in the U.S. Such as virtually all the oil that would be transported to Gulf refineries by the Keystone pipeline. Petroleum coke & tar sands do not produce oil of sufficient quality to be sold in the American market. If there's a conspiracy, the dinosaurs were in on it by selecting a location to die that would make the President look bad.

      I mean, if it's possible that the President of the United States is not a U.S. citizen, or that every country in the world is plotting to falsify the current body of climatology research -- then, I guess a dino conspiracy could have happened.

    86. Re:Keystone XL by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      Of course you do realise that the Athabasca reserves are not American property but in fact the product of a foreign country being imported to the US, that free market capitalism at work? Why should the end result of processing foreign oil be reserved to subsidise US consumers when the source material is imported?

      Of course you realise that most of the oil leases are owned by Koch Industries through various cutouts, right? It is a matter of public record, you know.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    87. Re:Keystone XL by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

      GPS locations? Your statemet was about recycling nuclear waste. What does one call "Recycling Nuclear Waste" in Canadian?

    88. Re:Keystone XL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What does one call "Recycling Nuclear Waste" in Canadian?

      DUPIC: Direct Use of spent pressurized light water reactor fuel in CANDU.

      Amusingly most of the DUPIC engineering work was done by Koreans (at KAERI) and Indians (at BARC) mostly because the conflicting goals of AECL, CANDU Ltd., the Canadian NRC, and the governments of Canada and Ontario stalled practical work in Canada itself. Essentially the major conflicts are: test capacity vs actual power generation and manufacturing and sales activity; and the need to import spent PWR fuel vs non-proliferation and public relations concerns. South Korea and India both have numerous domestic PWR reactors (and thus spent fuel, an easier time of colocating a CANDU at a PWR site, and are not currently aggressively seeking to market advanced PHWR technologies for primary power generation internationally like Canada is/was/sorta-is.

      That said, CANFLEX is *so* flexible that during the new fuel project at Bruce "B", permission was granted to study DUPIC bundles in practice during the CANFLEX-LVRF refuelling plan. There is a great deal of secrecy imposed by the U.S. Department of Energy -- which supplied recovered PWR fuel with an enrichment of approximately 0.9% -- on the results, and the notoriously leaky [partly by virtue of being wholly civilian and largely free from official secrets restrictions] Canadian nuclear physics and engineering community has been surprisngly good at keeping several interesting questions unanswered in freely available literature (such as the amount of reprocessing done on the fuel prior to bundling for CANDU, and where that reprocessing was done (INEEL?), the precise composition of the embedding matrix (inert?), and the precise impact on the neutron economy of the reactor, presumably because the general secrecy imposed on nuclear weapons research under the US D.O.E was worth the materials, manpower, and funding that (I guess) was part of the deal.

      DUPIC is a great way to dispose of "surplus" slightly enriched uranium (of which the USA has a lot, both from its nuclear weapons programmes and in reasonably readily recoverable PWR waste form), but is not appropriate for materials recovered directly from operational weapons, largely because it wrecks the power generation efficiency of current CANDU designs. Because of that (and secrecy involving nuclear weapons generally), actual U.S. weapons material is likely going to be allowed to decay naturally in storage facilities even if high plutonium / HEU reactors come on line, even if BARC (for example) ends up being so surprisingly forthcoming about its experiments with decommissioning and using aging weapons materials that it effectively reveals the most important secret elements of the U.S., Russian or Chinese programmes.

      However, there is no large surplus of SEU in Canada itself and has very little HEU or plutonium domestically. Canadian operators face no shortfall in supply of uranium ore, and they do not need to expend enormous resources processing and enriching the ore for use in their reactors, and Canada is not short of deuterated water. DUPIC is AT BEST marginally less efficient than the new advanced CANFLEX fuel bundles and probably would perform worse on a commercial power generation cycle in a facility like Point Lepreau or Pickering. Consequently there is no interest in DUPIC in Canada except in terms of global arms reduction, and the possessors of the arms have little interest in absorbing the costs of delivering appropriate fuel mixes to the CANDU operators. Perhaps they will build their own PHWR, license a CANDU, or continue with paper experiments involving fast neutron reactors. More likely they will just continue to bury old materials and their own heads in some convenient sand.

  3. Editors! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Do your job and edit!

  4. Who the heck by Herbster · · Score: 3, Informative

    Proofread this horrendous summary? Have a little chat with yourself.

    1. Re:Who the heck by phantomfive · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The important point is, they are cutting the estimate by 96% of recoverable oil. The oil is there, but not recoverable as easily as in Texas or North Dakota. It's been push deeper by heavy seismic activity in the area.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re:Who the heck by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Informative

      The important point is, they are cutting the estimate by 96% of recoverable oil.

      Wow, it says that right in the title. I guess headlines are too much trouble for me tonight.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:Who the heck by Ol+Biscuitbarrel · · Score: 1

      Maybe the submitter just displays complex/rippled grammar, spelling, and punctuation.

    4. Re:Who the heck by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't worry, you're on the forefront of slashdot's latest trend: not even reading the headline. After the long-held tradition of no one reading the article, we migrated in recent years to no one reading the summary, and now we are finally achieving are long-awaited goal.

    5. Re:Who the heck by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 1

      "A spokesman for the oil industry expressed optimism that new techniques will eventually open up the Monterey formation."

      Well he's right. Fracking technology is moving along at a good clip. I'm sure these unrecoverable reserves will soon become recoverable.

    6. Re:Who the heck by TheRealHocusLocus · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Don't worry, you're on the forefront of slashdot's latest trend: not even reading the headline. After the long-held tradition of no one reading the article, we migrated in recent years to no one reading the summary, and now we are finally achieving are long-awaited goal.

      Don't worry, you're on the forefront of Slashdot's ugliest trend, where Poor Impulse Control and the desire to push out smart-ass remarks takes over other cognitive functions. For an additional empty hooty-laugh the comments are 'further refined' so that they resemble compliments at first glance.

      Like a blacksmith who is beating out misshapen horseshoes with full knowledge that his shoddy product will only disturb the beast's gait and cause discomfort and injury -- the final act is one of omission, where the smith chooses not to punch in the mark that identifies him with the product. 'Post anonymously' -- check!

      In the smithies of Slashdot ACs have contributed much to discussion and they post anonymously for many good reasons. But too often it is used as a vehicle of anonymity when farting around the campfire.

      In human discourse it is appropriate to reward the introspective self-effacing remark politely with a silent nod supportive assent, as if to say, "There, but for the Grace of God, go I." Or if you are an atheist, "Well fuck. You can't fall off the floor."

      --
      <blink>down the rabbit hole</blink>
    7. Re:Who the heck by tquasar · · Score: 1

      Easy now, play nice. People some different things see.

    8. Re:Who the heck by VortexCortex · · Score: 1

      Proofread this horrendous summary?

      Have a little chat with yourself.

      What I do is read past the mistakes and be thankful that I know what they're trying to say. That's the only thing left man has over the machines, and you want the Slashdot editors to take even advantage away?!
      Talk about kicking an ape when he's down.

    9. Re:Who the heck by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      After the long-held tradition of no one reading the article, we migrated in recent years to no one reading the summary, and now we are finally achieving are long-awaited goal.

      Well, perfection is attained not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing more to remove. ;-)

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    10. Re:Who the heck by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You still think Slashdot submissions are proofread? That's cute.

    11. Re:Who the heck by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Don't worry, you're on the forefront of slashdot's latest trend: not even reading the headline. After the long-held tradition of no one reading the article, we migrated in recent years to no one reading the summary, and now we are finally achieving are long-awaited goal.

      Don't worry, you're on the forefront of Slashdot's ugliest trend, where Poor Impulse Control and the desire to push out smart-ass remarks takes over other cognitive functions. For an additional empty hooty-laugh the comments are 'further refined' so that they resemble compliments at first glance

      The ironic thing is I actually read the story to find out what was actually said in the headline. The sad thing is I actually got modded informative for pointing out what was in the headline.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    12. Re:Who the heck by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      Don't worry, you're on the forefront of slashdot's latest trend: not even reading the headline. After the long-held tradition of no one reading the article, we migrated in recent years to no one reading the summary, and now we are finally achieving are long-awaited goal.

      It's called "the singularity", and I for one welcome our new quippy overlords!

    13. Re:Who the heck by nadaou · · Score: 1

      this is /., who actually reads the title?

      --
      ~.~
      I'm a peripheral visionary.
    14. Re:Who the heck by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's a technique in development that look for certain fossil groups in the well log. You hit those fossils and you increase your recoverable a bit over an order of magnitude. This allows for a more targeted more efficient extraction profile with less damage to the environment. Fracking is only one tool out of many.

    15. Re:Who the heck by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In Geology we call this crenulated grammar.

    16. Re:Who the heck by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Luckily it is in California, and we can hope that the environmentalists are strong enough to stop it from happening there. And if they can't, the lack of water will.

      I wish the Green Party/environmentalist groups would come up with a plan to bankrupt fracking. But that would take a large coordinated effort, and preventing trailer trash and China/India from buying "cheap" gas when the companies have way too much try to dump it on the market.

  5. Irrelevant for the common man by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The slave labor jobs with poor conditions and pay will not appear. So what. Only losers are big gov, and the executive parasites that would oversee the exploration. Irrelevant people, irrelevant news. It's not like America wouldn't be off bombing other countries for their oil regardless. All irrelevant.

    "I have more oil than you if I take your oil."
    "I have more money than you if I take your money."

    Irrelevant parasites that will leave an easily forgotten footnote in history.

    1. Re:Irrelevant for the common man by Isaac-1 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Where does this myth of slave labor pay in the oil industry come from? I live on the gulf coast in the middle of the U.S. petrochem region and the recent resurgence of U.S. oil exploration has lead to insane levels of job growth and prime pay for those lucky enough to work in the major petrochem plants. I was recently shocked by the reality of this at an extended family event at Easter, where I saw one of my wife's cousins, he is 23 years old, married with 2 young kids, and has a 2 year degree from local trade school and he makes over $100,000 per year doing shift work as an operator at one of the plants.

    2. Re:Irrelevant for the common man by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sure, how many hours a week, what is the injury rate like, what is his cost of living, and how long do you think he'll be able to continue the job, what will he do after?

    3. Re: Irrelevant for the common man by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You obviously have no clue. The oil and gas industry pays incredibly well. I've seen operators (though most are not 20 somethings) who work under 40 hours a week make well into 6 figures, have lunch catered every day, their own workout facilities, and they do very little work the vast majority of the time because the control system is running the operation. They work in what is essentially a bunker built to withstand a nuclear blast. They earn their pay when thing are not going as planned. They are treated very well because it is their responsibility to prevent a catastrophy. You do not want a dsigruntled operator(s).

    4. Re:Irrelevant for the common man by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      Ah, good. You just displayed the typical hype as well as indicated the source of his question: politics.

      To answer your vague and innuendo ridden series of questions: as many as he wants to, higher than most industries (he does actual, physical work, unlike say, IT), same as everyone else in the area (you know, the waitresses, pastors, etc), as long as his health allows, same thing everyone else does after their primary occupation, something else. You seem to purposefully avoid that he has a two year degree, that degree being very most likely not so focused as to be specific to the job he's doing (much like HVAC isn't just for air conditioner repairmen).

    5. Re:Irrelevant for the common man by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Slashdot will never be rid of cunts like you.

    6. Re:Irrelevant for the common man by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Ah good, working in a chemical plant. That's good for the ol' biology.

      He could even go work in a refinery, every so often they release toxic clouds that require communities downwind to evacuate, so they must be perfectly safe to work in

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    7. Re: Irrelevant for the common man by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know who else pays incredibly well? Slaughterhouses, because they can't even get illegals to step into their deathtraps for minimum wage.

    8. Re:Irrelevant for the common man by fullmetal55 · · Score: 1

      10 on 5 off... 8 hour days, everything catered, the camp conditions are actually really nice. Making 6 figures... injury rate no higher than any other industrial job. plus the added bonus of on-hand EMT and Nurses, so no waiting for an ambulance when an accident occurs. hardly slave labor... Definately not for everybody, but when I hear Newfies telling me how much safer it is, and how much better the hours are than working the fishing boats back home? The extra pay is a bonus.

    9. Re:Irrelevant for the common man by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      I work at a refinery let me help you answer some of your questions:

      - I average around 40 hours a week.
      - The injury rate where I work is no higher than industrial average for minor abrasions, cuts, accidentally bumping your head etc. The major injury rate such as lost time, requiring medical treatment is below industry average at our plant. Last injury that caused someone to need time off work was 3 years ago, and was an office worker who suffered from hyper-extended tendons in her arm after slipping in the kitchen and failing miserably at keeping herself upright.
      - I've been working there for 10 years, but I look at the operations department and there are some 3rd generation people just starting. Yes that's right, 3rd generation. Grandpa has retired, Dad is Unit Area Co-ordinator, and the Kid is just starting as a process technician.
      - Cost of living is no different to the rest of the USA. I don't know why you even asked this question, it seems a bit silly.
      - What will he do after? Well if grandpa was any indication spend a lot of time fishing.

      There's a lot to be said about jobs in the oil industry, both in trade or otherwise, but "bad" is not a term that would ever describe them.

    10. Re:Irrelevant for the common man by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Dunno about elsewhere, but someone up in Sidney MT just reported seeing a single-wide used trailer for sale for (are you sitting down?) $160,000, and that's for just the trailer, on wheels, no lot. You might pay $3000/mo. for a place to park it. Such a trailer was worth $5000 (and the lot $200/mo.) before Bakken oil.

      All that aside, if I were 30 years younger I'd be up there too.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
  6. American foreign policy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  7. Incoming conspiracy. by SuricouRaven · · Score: 3, Funny

    I predict that before a week has passed, someone will be claiming Obama personally rigged the study as part of a deliberate attempt to sabotage the oil industry.

    1. Re:Incoming conspiracy. by vikingpower · · Score: 1

      Before a week ? Before the sun has set, you mean...

      --
      Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
    2. Re:Incoming conspiracy. by deroby · · Score: 1

      Scary but true; from my current point of view it's already in the next comment !?!!!

      (http://news.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=5187683&cid=47063651)

      --
      If there is one thing to be learned on slashdot, it has to be sarcasm.
    3. Re:Incoming conspiracy. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In the very next comment, actually

    4. Re:Incoming conspiracy. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh don't be ridiculous. Next you'll be saying that he mindlessly stopped a pipeline from being built that his own state dept. approved.

    5. Re:Incoming conspiracy. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the oil industry feels it's being sabotaged, there is always the option of another war aboard.

  8. Presentation of math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    96% reduction... seems to have less impact on public than "value is divided by 25".

    Moreover, if the computation is rounding the error, a change from 96% to 99% would look like only a 3% change, whereas it would change the final value to be divided by 100 instead of 25.

    Do not panic.

    1. Re:Presentation of math by geogob · · Score: 3, Informative

      From TFA :
      The reserves were downgraded by 96 percent, from 13.7 billion barrels estimated by a government-funded report in 2011, to just 600 million barrels, the EIA said.
      Absolute values help put things into perspective.

      Or do we need more perspective? For those who prefer the typical journalistic approach to understanding numbers, it's a reduction from 872'000 Olympic pools to just under 37'200 Olympic pools.

    2. Re: Presentation of math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hey! I need this value in Libraries of Congress, the One True metric.

    3. Re: Presentation of math by geogob · · Score: 1

      It's a reduction from about 2740 Library of Congress to about 120 Library of Congress (assuming the approximate volume of all three LoC buildings).

    4. Re:Presentation of math by compro01 · · Score: 1

      Absolute values help put things into perspective.

      Or in another manner, from enough oil to supply the USA for 2 years, to enough to supply it for a month.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    5. Re:Presentation of math by Kiwikwi · · Score: 1

      Or do we need more perspective? For those who prefer the typical journalistic approach to understanding numbers, it's a reduction from 872'000 Olympic pools to just under 37'200 Olympic pools.

      For an even better perspective: It's a reduction from what the US consumes in 2 years, to what the US consumes in 1 month. [1]

      Whichever estimate holds, one should probably start considering alternatives.

    6. Re: Presentation of math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thank you, it all makes sense now.

  9. This could actually be good news by vikingpower · · Score: 4, Insightful

    One more incentive to the US to turn towards renewable energy sources. The USA are lagging way behind western and northern European countries in that respect. Last week e.g. the Dutch railways announced that from next year on, 100% of their operations will run on electric power from renewable sources, mainly wind, bought from a total of 5 north west European countries ( DE, DK, BE, NO, NL ).

    --
    Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
    1. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yes indeed. And no one drives a car in California, or any fossil fuel vehicle, jets, helicopters, etc. They all live like the Amish.

    2. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The amount of solar cells and wind turbines you would need in the US to even make a dent in their power requirements would require astronomical amounts of land.

    3. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um, the US leads in renewable power generation and usage. I don't know where you guys always get this perception that the US is "behind".

    4. Re:This could actually be good news by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      I'd rather wait until my McMansion in the 'burbs is way underwater and I can't afford to drive any more.

      So would I. It would be kind of nice to be alive past 2200AD to see that.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    5. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it depends whether you're talking about gross power generation or as percentage of overall power required

    6. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...and fossil fuels for mining and production of materials, construction, and transportation. Furthermore, fossil fueled backup plants are required for nearly the full capacity, as wind and solar are unreliable energy sources. Then in 10-20 years, they all need replacement. It is a massive waste of resources for something which can't address but a fraction of our energy needs.

      The materials and synthetic liquid fuels could be produced with nuclear heat, and the backup plants replaced by nuclear electricity, but then why bother with the renewables at all?

    7. Re:This could actually be good news by dave420 · · Score: 4, Informative

      The US is #3 behind China and the EU in terms of amount of power generated from renewable sources, and is #112 in terms of percentage of renewable power being used in its grid (at slightly over 10%, just ahead of Kazakhstan). So that's probably where "us guys" get that perception from - reality.

    8. Re:This could actually be good news by Noxal · · Score: 0

      Oh just SHUT the FUCK UP. How DARE we hold our country to a higher standard than you do. How DARE we have an opinion on the matter.

    9. Re:This could actually be good news by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      I didn't know New Mexico contained astronomical amounts of land. (A hint: even though the density of sunlight or wind makes it not all that practical to generate energy from them in large amounts in or near residential areas, even a fraction of US land area would be sufficient to generate vast amounts of electricity.)

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    10. Re:This could actually be good news by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      On the other hand, labour and material are quite a bit more expensive here in Europe, and the smaller nations also have proportionally smaller economies. Plus, the US has areas that are vastly more favorable for solar energy production than virtually any part of Europe perhaps with the exception of southern Spain and Italy.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    11. Re:This could actually be good news by necro81 · · Score: 1

      Dutch railways announced that from next year on, 100% of their operations will run on electric power from renewable sources, mainly wind

      This makes me wonder: if enough heavy industries sign on to using wind power, they can become a flexible load to balance the variable supply of wind? For instance, if Dutch railways has 10,000 cars moving around, and the output of wind drops by X%, could they slow their cars down by Y% to help compensate? Inversely, if there's a sudden surge in wind, could they speed their cars up, using the kinetic energy of their moving fleet as a sort of rolling grid storage.

      Granted, this kind of demand is not infinitely flexible - the railroads still need to meet certain schedules, trains safely travel only so fast, certain industrial processes can't be sped up or slowed down quickly, etc. - but there's still substantial elasticity and capacitance in these big-scale users.

    12. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      100% of their operations will run on electric power from renewable sources, mainly wind, bought from a total of 5 north west European countries ( DE, DK, BE, NO, NL ).

      The hardest part was developing the filters at the border to block all the German lignite generated electrons.

    13. Re: This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hate to break it to ya, but I research fuel synthesis via gas-to-liquids or solds-to-liquids processes, and nuclear reactors, while putting out a lot of heat, operate at temperatures far too low to feed the reforming or gasification reactions required as a first step to either of those fuel synthesis routes. Nuclear does electricity great, but that's about it.

    14. Re:This could actually be good news by compro01 · · Score: 1

      Land schmand. You've got tens of thousands of square kilometers of roofs.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    15. Re: This could actually be good news by compro01 · · Score: 1

      What kind of temperatures would be needed?

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    16. Re:This could actually be good news by afidel · · Score: 2

      Per capita energy use in the US is ~300M BTU, or 90k kWhr, there are ~330M people in the US giving a total energy usage of ~30,000 TWhrs. Average solar insolation without tracking in Albuquerque is ~6.4kWhrs/m^2/day or 2.336 TWhrs per km^2 per year, at 10% efficiency you would need to cover 128,424 km^2 which is a bit more than 1/3rd of the land area of New Mexico.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    17. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      at 10% efficiency you would need to cover 128,424 km^2 which is a bit more than 1/3rd of the land area of New Mexico.

      128,424 km^2. You realize that is a total of 128 billion 1m x 1m solar panels, right?

      If one in every thousand fail per year (0.1%), we'll get to replace 128 million solar panels per year. How many people do you estimate that it would take to manufacture, deliver, and replace 128 million solar panels per year? The entire population of the US would basically have to be devoted to maintaining the solar infrastructure, simply for the sake of maintaining the solar infrastructure.

    18. Re:This could actually be good news by afidel · · Score: 1

      Hardly, we make around 400m computers per year and a hell of a lot more labor goes into an assembled computer than a simple solar cell. Plus a .1% AFR on something solid state would be horrendously bad, mechanical hdd's (enterprise class) are at only 1.5% AFR and those are mechanical devices spinning at 15k RPM!

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    19. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People could just conserve more and stop being so damn wasteful, but that would mean giving a damn.

    20. Re:This could actually be good news by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      Make that 2030 and you're on the right track.

    21. Re:This could actually be good news by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      I think you have vastly overestimated US electricity consumption. According to this file, the sum of all electricity generated in the US in 2012 amounted to about 4000 TWh, not 30000 TWh. So you should really divide your numbers by eight.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    22. Re:This could actually be good news by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      I think you're overly pessimistic about the reliability figures. The defect rate of today's commercial solar cells appears to be lower than 0.1% throughout the whole of the thirty years of their expected lifetime. So it may be that the best strategy is to just let them fail and replace the panels after thirty-to-forty years wholesale.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    23. Re:This could actually be good news by afidel · · Score: 1

      My numbers are total energy usage according to DoE, that includes electricity, transportation fuels, and industrial usage of non-electric sources of energy (ie how much energy we would need to go all electric)

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    24. Re:This could actually be good news by jwhitener · · Score: 1

      I wish that were true. It probably just means we will double down on coal....

    25. Re:This could actually be good news by volmtech · · Score: 1

      We have tens of thousands a square miles of roofs. Except for mine. It's on a mobile home and if you try to walk on it you will just fall through.

    26. Re:This could actually be good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think your numbers are way off there... I heard that it would be a 100 mile by 100 mile array.

      There is no way I use 90,000 kWhr/year. I generated 2,200 kWhr with my solar panels last year, and I used 2,100 kWhr. My car used 450 gallons @ 33 kWhr/gal = 15000, although once I switch to an electric vehicle it will be more efficient. So, I would say, even if you double it to 34,000 kWhr, it still wouldn't be close. If anyone is using more than 9k, they have a problem and I don't care if the price of their energy goes up.

  10. Wait.. by pablo_max · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Does this mean that we will need to find some other means of energy rather than burning dead dinosaurs? God forbid.

    While this may impact the future economic situation to some degree and CA, it is not like the oil had been extracted and then taken away. The money was never there, it was only the assumption of future money.
    I would also point out that the vast majority CA residents are strongly opposed to shale extraction off the coast of CA.

    1. Re:Wait.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry. Solar and wind won't cut it. Unless we allow nuclear, when the oil runs out the majority of the global population will simply die. Worse yet, environmentalists orgasm over the possibility of mass die off of humanity.

    2. Re:Wait.. by rrohbeck · · Score: 2

      Nuclear won't help either. Even if we started to build nukes like there's no tomorrow (not that we can afford it) it wouldn't fix anything. The energy trap has closed. 40 years ago was the time to act.

    3. Re:Wait.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Of course not. Just because you can power electric cars and other vehicles with carbon free nuclear is not a good reason to use it. Also, nuclear can desalinate tons of seawater by the minute. Drought stricken California farmers have no need of water because Californians don't need food. Nope, they just need to live like the Amish. I can't wait for governor moonbeam to pass a law through the state-house outlawing all vehicles since no one there needs transportation anywhere. Ain't being a libtard fun~~~????

    4. Re:Wait.. by Eunuchswear · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The energy trap has closed. 40 years ago was the time to act.

      That would only be true if it would take more that 40 years to replace all of a countries electricity generation by nuclear.

      And we know that's not true, it can be done in 26 years.

      (In 1974 France decided that it would transition to nuclear for electricity generation. The first new reactor came online end 1981, the last of 58 came online in 2000).

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    5. Re:Wait.. by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      Haven't you noticed, in modern Economics real money and assumption of future money are exactly the same!

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
    6. Re:Wait.. by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 1

      Does this mean that we will need to find some other means of energy rather than burning dead dinosaurs? God forbid.

      Yes, nuclear. Let us know when you're ready.

    7. Re:Wait.. by Cutterman · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The stupidity of ignoring nuclear fission never ceases to amaze me. Fusion is still a long way from practicality, will always expensive and isn't the clean dream - the massive neutron flux just makes even more radioactive waste. The oil & gas are going to run out one day, be it in 5 years or 50. Renewables are unreliable, expensive and the quantities of rare earths required make for horrible mining pollution as well as covering the landscape with ugly windmills and solar collectors.

      High activity nuclear waste is a small volume storage problem and if we hadn't wasted the last 30 years we would have modern fission plant designs far safer than any of the chemical polluting shit we have now.

      Fricken' ridiculous.

    8. Re:Wait.. by Eunuchswear · · Score: 2

      Sorry, braino, the first came online in end 1977, (Fessenheim), not 1981.

      Decide go nuke in 1974, first working plant December 1977, second March 1978, tell that to the kids of today.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    9. Re:Wait.. by pla · · Score: 1

      Haven't you noticed, in modern Economics real money and assumption of future money are exactly the same!

      Only under two assumptions - Investing at the risk-free rate of return, or losing ground against inflation.

      In any other scenario, yes, you can compare the future value of two similar risk investments, but failing to factor in different levels of risk commits a grievous error that will leave you begging in the street while your boring neighbor's inflation+1% diversified bond portfolio has him retiring in luxury.

    10. Re:Wait.. by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      They still need to make a shift from high output reactors to low output safer reactors. The focus needs to be on reducing energy output, extending fuel life and using many reactors, with fuel lasting the life of the smaller, lower temperature, simpler reactor. The biggest problem with today's reactors is trying to squeeze to much power out of the reaction, which requires refuelling and hugely increases risk as a result of high temperatures.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    11. Re:Wait.. by tigersha · · Score: 0

      I live 7km from Fessenheim (in Germany, Fessenheim is right on the France/German border), and everywhere around here the Green fcktards have posters wanting to close the place down. Every time someone in the plant lets steam escape from the tea-kettle in the kitchen the greens freak out. Every few weeks they block the bloody bridge over the Rhine and then they block the traffic on the highway and then they block this and then block that. As if disrupting normal traffic is going to help.

      When we moved into our house a few years ago we got a information sheet from the local government about what to do if Fessenheim blows up. The school has anti-Fessenheim posters in it. So do the creche, the kindergarten, the town hall and probably the its printed on the toilet paper of the mayor too.

      --
      The dangers of excessive individualism are nothing compared to the oppressiveness of excessive collectivism
    12. Re:Wait.. by tigersha · · Score: 1

      Close to ITER, the main fusion research place in Provence, the entire countryside is littered with "Iter-Boom!" graffiti. The greens are already up in arms.

      --
      The dangers of excessive individualism are nothing compared to the oppressiveness of excessive collectivism
    13. Re:Wait.. by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      So what you are saying is that on paper the problems associated with nuclear are small, yet in the decades we have been using it we have completely failed to solve them? Sounds like a practical solution to me, the kind of thing investors will be willing to throw money at instead of the rapidly expanding alternatives. You should put together a business plan.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    14. Re:Wait.. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      When we moved into our house a few years ago we got a information sheet from the local government about what to do if Fessenheim blows up. The school has anti-Fessenheim posters in it. So do the creche, the kindergarten, the town hall and probably the its printed on the toilet paper of the mayor too.

      So just to be clear, your educators and government are against it, but you think it's wonderful that we have no long-term viable plans to deal with our waste?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    15. Re:Wait.. by Oligonicella · · Score: 2

      Because of politics, not designs or capabilities.

    16. Re:Wait.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The energy trap has closed. 40 years ago was the time to act.

      That would only be true if it would take more that 40 years to replace all of a countries electricity generation by nuclear.

      And we know that's not true, it can be done in 26 years.

      (In 1974 France decided that it would transition to nuclear for electricity generation. The first new reactor came online end 1981, the last of 58 came online in 2000).

      Ah but you see, this kind of planning cannot be done following the "Free market" ideology. You need as the Americans would say "Communist" planning. The central state taking decisions for the betterment of the country. Yeah it's an alien notion to those strange neanderthals living between Mexico and Canada.

    17. Re: Wait.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why do people like you keep talking as if nuclear power is being restricted in some way. Permits are available and companies can build new plants if they want. There are no new restrictions or regulations holding back the industry; it just isn't economical for power companies and hasn't been for a while. Look it up, nuclear plant orders dropped to zero years before Three Mile Island or Chernobyl due to cheaper coal and gas options; that's it. Money.

    18. Re:Wait.. by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      Reprocessing. This is France, not the USA.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    19. Re:Wait.. by Eunuchswear · · Score: 0

      And those same Green fucktards have no problem with burning increasing amounts of filthy brown coal.

      Do they have any viable long term plans to deal with the waste from that? Do they fuck as like.

      Die Grünen - the worst thing to happen to the environment ever.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    20. Re:Wait.. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Reprocessing. This is France, not the USA.

      It decreases the quantity of waste but does not eliminate the waste, and we have not actually demonstrated an ability to store waste over a five hundred year span as of yet.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    21. Re:Wait.. by DutchUncle · · Score: 1

      The money was never there, it was only the assumption of future money.

      An interesting side-note: In economics and finance, particularly as it relates to the stock market, the "assumption of future money" seems to be regarded as a complete commitment - for the BIG players. Yet when it comes to the small players, like people whose pensions are unfunded, "assumption of future money" that was supposedly guaranteed by contract is considered disposable. . . . at least, by the BIG players (I'm looking at Chris Christie today, and all of the "overfunded pension" raiders going back to the 1990s).

    22. Re:Wait.. by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      Bullshit. Spoken like a true luddite. Solar and wind can produce the energy needs for the planet. But morons like you haven't read the research and get your facts from foxnews. We were warned 40 years ago during the first oil embargo and did nothing about it. Time to stop listen to idiots and start moving away from oil. This is not a technological limitation. Politics is preventing us from moving forward.

    23. Re:Wait.. by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      "nuclear can desalinate tons of seawater by the minute" by what magical beans? a nuclear power plant is not a desalination plant. stupid people should not post...

    24. Re:Wait.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nothing stops you from kickstarting Nuclear projects:
      http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2013/02/27/how-crowdfunding-lowers-cost-solar-energy

      the,
      Solar Industry

    25. Re: Wait.. by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      Why do people like you keep talking as if nuclear power is being restricted in some way. Permits are available and companies can build new plants if they want. There are no new restrictions or regulations holding back the industry; it just isn't economical for power companies and hasn't been for a while. Look it up, nuclear plant orders dropped to zero years before Three Mile Island or Chernobyl due to cheaper coal and gas options; that's it. Money.

      Gas/coal generators are cheaper because they don't have to go to court every other day to defend their permits. A large part of the cost of building a nuke plant is legal costs just to keep building. See Perry Nuclear Plant for more info. They kept stopping construction whenever a judge issued an injunction, and since the buildings and reactor housings weren't complete, they had to keep a crew there full time playing cards so they could jump back to work when the injunction lifted, and were prohibited from doing maintanance on the site while the injunctions were in effect. Weather in northeast Ohio isn't pleasant, there was a lot of damage that needed removed and rebuilt before they could continue until they got handed their next injunction.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    26. Re:Wait.. by koreanbabykilla · · Score: 1

      I dont know that I'd trust anything someone who thinks the Sphinx was built by humans 20,000 years ago. Retard.

    27. Re:Wait.. by Alioth · · Score: 1

      The waste at least can be concentrated into one, known small spot. Unlike the waste from fossil fuels, which is just discharged into the atmosphere where it becomes spread out and difficult to remove and likely a problem for centuries.

    28. Re:Wait.. by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      the massive neutron flux just makes even more radioactive waste

      That's not an actual problem - they absorb the neutrons with copper, and the half-life is about 40 years.

      Light water reactors create 300,000 year waste. Humans cannot responsibly handle anything that hot - we do not have the technology to store it.

      Of course if Gore/Clinton/Kerry/O'Leary hadn't ganged up to kill the Integral Fast Reactor project (too successful) we'd be transmuting that 300,000 year waste into 60 year waste by now, and we can handle that (and as a side-effect providing all the electric needs of the planet's population for seventy years just cleaning up the current waste).

      Bush and Obama are just as complicit - Branson has trying to commercialize the technology for over three years and the current administration refuses to give him a meeting. They're all deeply corrupt and in the pockets of the fossil fuel industry and at the same time seeking to expand government power with fears of fossil fuel use. Any good solution solves two problems, and keeping IFR reactors from being built solves two very important problems for the corrupt and powerful.

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    29. Re:Wait.. by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      Figure out how to deal with the waste, then we can talk.

      Dude, that was solved a quarter century ago.

      Until then, you nuke advocates need to be shown for the selfish, short-sighted dumbshits that you are.

      It's more the flaming ignoramuses who are the problem as their rigid anti-science stance keeps the light water reactors in operation. Yeah, you - you're responsible for Fukushima-type incidents by lending your political power to those who would seek to prevent progress.

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    30. Re:Wait.. by msobkow · · Score: 1

      Oh, yes, and oil grasshoppers are so pretty.

      Face it: You're just a NIMBY mofo who is happy to have the ugliness a few states away instead of near where it's used. Tough shit.

      --
      I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
    31. Re:Wait.. by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      First of all, Peak Uranium is predicted in around 20 years at current consumption with current technology. Of course you're free to invoke fairy tales about thorium or uranium from seawater. Those exist just as much as fusion exists.
      Secondly, even if we magically had all nuclear electric power generation tomorrow it wouldn't fix anything because you can't run trucks, ships or planes on batteries, or replace the entire stock of cars in less than about two decades.

    32. Re:Wait.. by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      Thorium can be, and has been, burned in PWR's.

      I can see how you can claim that nuclear (or any other electricity generation method) can't fix everything, but to claim it can't fix anything is wierd.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    33. Re:Wait.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      yet in the decades we have been using it rabid environmentalists spouting FUD and the EPA listening have blocked progress on safe nuclear fision so that we have completely failed to solve them?

      There, FTFY

    34. Re:Wait.. by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      Are you saying that we don't have the technology to bury ~2000 tons of waste annually somewhere deep enough that it won't be affected by anything short of an asteroid strike?

    35. Re:Wait.. by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      They still need to make a shift from high output reactors to low output safer reactors. The focus needs to be on reducing energy output, extending fuel life and using many reactors, with fuel lasting the life of the smaller, lower temperature, simpler reactor. The biggest problem with today's reactors is trying to squeeze to much power out of the reaction, which requires refuelling and hugely increases risk as a result of high temperatures.

      The biggest problem was already mentioned. The industry stagnated technologically for 30 years. No new reactor constructions means no R&D.

      Think about that for a moment before you rattle off a list of what the industry needs to do.

    36. Re:Wait.. by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      You may want to look at numbers - how long it takes to build nukes, how much that needs in terms of money/resources, availability of uranium, amount of fossil fuel needed to mine uranium etc.
      I didn't claim that it can't fix anything but it won't save the economy when fossil fuel depletion hits in earnest.

    37. Re:Wait.. by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      No public R&D. A lot of behind the scenes R&D continued, especially in the military. In fact the best source of nuclear energy research is pretty bloody obvious if you stop to think about it. The USN http://nnsa.energy.gov/sites/d... read the pretty brochure. Unless of course corporate interests have completely screwed it up but very likely a solid core of compact safe nuclear energy generation research tools and people remain. So what government, not fucking industry, needs to do is kick the ball and get in moving as a matter of priority likely based around the USNs existing expertise.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    38. Re:Wait.. by ShoulderOfOrion · · Score: 1

      Large reptilian creatures from Japan can solve the nuclear waste disposal and urban renewal problems at the same time.

    39. Re:Wait.. by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      You might like to read the thread you're replying to:

      how long it takes to build nukes,

      We know that:

      Decision: 6/3/1974
      Fessenheim 1: 12/1979 ( 6 years)
      Fessenheim 2: 3/1978 ...
      Civaux 2: 2000 (26 years to build enough reactors for 80% of electricity generation).

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
  11. Too bad it isn't true by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Virtually none of the shale oil and gas exploration and production is being done in CA. This account is just a tad exaggerated... To the point of stupidity. And the hard shale issues in CA are already very well known. The size of the shale layer may sound cool, but it iis irrelevant... Its just a geologic formation, and those tend to run huge anyhow. It doesn't mean the the formation is somehow magically able to be exploited.

  12. When it comes to "big money" by anubi · · Score: 5, Interesting

    First, I will say I have worked for a major oil company.

    Second, I will say I have read "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons, was an ardent follower of The Oil Drum petroleum web site - was more active there than I am here.. That site was full of petroleum engineers and field guys - and I trusted their insight far more than I trust words from any investment advisor sitting behind desk whose job it is to influence my decisions of how to allocate my retirement savings.

    And Third, I will say I swallowed the "Peak Oil" paradigm hook line and sinker. Apparently messed up my retirement savings big time by investing in the energy sector as I believed with all my heart that we were in serious decline.

    Suddenly fracking made the scene and all the investment buyers saw energy as plentiful again. And the price dropped, And many of the smaller guys sold out.

    I cannot help but wonder if all this panic talk is them yet rounding up another round of panicky people and investors to make a poor investment.

    I can't help but remember all this talk about how dire our energy situation was coming from our leaders. Then there is no energy crisis, Then there is.

    Almost sounds like Donovan singing about petroleum. First there is a crisis, then there is no crisis, then there is.

    We pay countless taxes into our government, and countless well-paid bureaucrats are supposed to be leading us, but does anyone up there really know what's going on?

    So far, they seem to rank about as reliable as an ouija board.

    How in the hell can anyone make rational decisions when no-one seems to take this stuff seriously? It seems lately all our government has wanted to so is snoop. 96% is a helluva big number.

    I believe special interest tie guys have the government release all these "facts" in order to manipulate the market.

    When I saw fracking, I was and still am concerned that was equivalent to "blowing the gas cap" on a dying oil well as once we relieved the subterranean pressure that was helping to push what was left of the liquid oil to the surface, we were draining the last "fart" from the earth before there was no longer enough energy recoverable from the lift effort than we were able to recover from the oil lifted. It meant the show was over.

    I remain very concerned this whole fracking "happy days are here again" thing has been nothing more than a ploy to get control of the remaining oil reserves at a bargain basement price.

    --
    "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]

    1. Re:When it comes to "big money" by Bob_Who · · Score: 1

      A very insightful post. Thanks for your candor and honesty. Its not often we grow to change our perspective so that we can get to the truth even at the expense of being right. Nobody is perfect, we all have a past, but I believe you now.

    2. Re:When it comes to "big money" by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Suddenly fracking made the scene and all the investment buyers saw energy as plentiful again. And the price dropped, And many of the smaller guys sold out.

      I cannot help but wonder if all this panic talk is them yet rounding up another round of panicky people and investors to make a poor investment.

      Sigh. You're underthinking this. Predictable, in someone caught out by them already. They're not just looking for new idiots, they're also looking for new laws. Fracking is bad, mmkay? They wouldn't have been allowed to do it without a peak oil scare.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    3. Re:When it comes to "big money" by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Suddenly fracking made the scene and all the investment buyers saw energy as plentiful again. And the price dropped, And many of the smaller guys sold out.

      I cannot help but wonder if all this panic talk is them yet rounding up another round of panicky people and investors to make a poor investment.

      So an unpredictable change happened, a new energy source was discovered and changed things. At this stage we don't know how long it will last exactly, and of course there is no way to predict if any other new sources will come along in the future. In any case this new wonder fuel isn't so wonderful really, so it is bit premature to call the long term trend.

      In other words you can't really draw any conclusions, other than that you were unlucky but may yet recover.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    4. Re:When it comes to "big money" by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      You make some good points here.

      Fracked shale gas will not remain cheap. It will stay that way until a certain level of global dependency is reached. At that point, supply flow increases will slow or stop, and wild price fluctuations will ensue, with a steady rise in average price over time.

      There is plenty of oil and gas supply, yet look at the prices they can demand due to the dependency of the transportation sector. That's how our whole energy sector will eventually look.

    5. Re:When it comes to "big money" by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 3, Interesting

      And Third, I will say I swallowed the "Peak Oil" paradigm hook line and sinker. Apparently messed up my retirement savings big time by investing in the energy sector as I believed with all my heart that we were in serious decline.

      Distinguishing local and global maxima of functions may be difficult, but in itself it does not negate the existence of global maxima of functions as such. We started oil production at one point in time, where the immediate production was zero. At one point in time in the future, it will be zero again, even if we manage to pump everything there is, simply because it's a finite amount of it. So that's zeros in two points with non-zeros in between. My math skills may be rusty, but I vaguely recall that a such a continuous function necessarily has a global maximum. That's not a "peak oil paradigm", that's basic logic. The fact that you mistook a local maximum for a global one is irrelevant.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    6. Re:When it comes to "big money" by DutchUncle · · Score: 1

      So an unpredictable change happened, a new energy source was discovered and changed things.

      I would put it differently: An unpredictable change happened, and some people raised their risk tolerance for side effects (as long as they weren't living in the affected area) to avoid making less money.

      As I understand it, the idea of fracking is to make more cracks in the rock so the oil can be extracted. The exact position of the cracks is unpredictable and, even better, unmapped after the fact. Unfortunately, the ground water that humans wind up drinking through wells *also* goes through cracks in the rock, which are also currently unmapped; so nobody can predict where the new and old cracks might intersect, and which water sources might become polluted, and how far downstream that pollution will carry. It's as random and widespread as strip-mining or mountaintop-removal or combustion products belched into the sky, but hidden underground (at least until it shows up in your well water). And it CAN'T be undone or fixed if it goes wrong. Crack the rock randomly upstream of a major population center - like the New York Catskills which are the watershed for New York City's 8 million people? What's the risk/reward on that? One bad crack and you're feeding hydraulic fluid and shale oil to EVERYONE, especially those who can't afford to switch to bottled water.

    7. Re:When it comes to "big money" by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      "Peak Oil" Always assumed there was a fixed amount of reserves that were economic to extract for the current economic conditions. The problem is as we get closer to the peak those economic conditions change, suddenly the amount of "useful reserves" changes too and the peak moves.

      Yeah we'll hit peak oil. I don't think it'll be in our lifetime. It certainly wasn't an "OMG we'll run out in 10 years" problem that a lot of people made it out to be.

    8. Re:When it comes to "big money" by lars_stefan_axelsson · · Score: 1

      My math skills may be rusty, but I vaguely recall that a such a continuous function necessarily has a global maximum.

      Well, not really. Matematically it may have several equal maxima, so it doesn't have to have a global maxima.

      But that's mathematically. In this case there will probably be one global maxima (more or less). We probably won't see wild swings up and down that aren't part of a general trend of increase or decline. Several "trend" tops are unlikely.

      --
      Stefan Axelsson
  13. Then/Than by BlackPignouf · · Score: 1

    I'm not a native speaker and I still often make mistakes in English, but I cannot understand how people can mix those up : then/than, your/you're, its/it's, there/their/they're.
    http://theoatmeal.com/comics/m...

    1. Re:Then/Than by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It's because the majority of Americans don't really get taught proper English in school any more, and they pretty much ignore what teaching they do get. But they still get to pass classes and graduate, because it would hurt their feelings to do otherwise.

      I used to work at an outfit where the majority of my co-workers were immigrants, as well as a large proportion of our customers. The worst at English spelling and grammar in both groups by far were the people born and raised in the U.S. I never really knew whether to laugh at that or be depressed by it.

    2. Re:Then/Than by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      I think it's easier for a native speaker to make these sorts of mistakes, particularly if they're not prone to writing. If you learn a language principally by sound, the distinction between "then" and "than" can start to look like a variation on the same word; it's not like English isn't polluted with words with two very different meanings depending on the context.

      Of course, comprehensibility in any language comes, in part, from being able to anticipate what structure is being built just as it's being built, and failing to make a distinction like this leads the reader down the garden path.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    3. Re:Then/Than by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      Mod parent up. Same here - the immigrants' English is better than the natives'. Oh and math and Science too.

    4. Re: Then/Than by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree.
      Although I seem to get those right most of the time now, is vs. are still bugs me.

    5. Re: Then/Than by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I should have written in some cases.

    6. Re:Then/Than by Megane · · Score: 1

      The thing is, it's only been in the past five years or so that I've noticed then/than being a problem at all, like it came out of nowhere. For a long time, the one that annoyed me the most was lose/loose. That one is still around, but it seems less common lately. And your/its/there have always been a problem.

      --
      #naabhaprzrag, #sverubfr-000, #agi-fcbafberq, negvpyr[pynff*=' negvpyr-ary-'] { qvfcynl: abar !vzcbegnag; }
    7. Re:Then/Than by SuricouRaven · · Score: 1

      Because 'your' and 'you're' are pronounced identically, as are the there-their-they're triplet. If you're writing as you speak, it's a very easy mistake.

    8. Re:Then/Than by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      It's not education, it's simply that native speakers learn to speak before they learn to write. If there is an educational fault, it might be the introduction of "phonics" and the idea that actual spelling is secondary. And there may be some truth to that... if spelling were so important, then how does the world survive with both the American, British, and other variations of English?

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    9. Re:Then/Than by Noxal · · Score: 1

      No they aren't. "Your" is pronounced "yo-er". "You're" is pronounced "yoo-er".

    10. Re:Then/Than by SuricouRaven · · Score: 1

      Not here. Must be different regional accents.

    11. Re:Then/Than by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget the classic: "definitely". People can spell it "definately" all the way to "defiantly"... Always struck me as odd, is it a local accent thing that makes that word so variable?

    12. Re:Then/Than by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIKjtPenXfM

    13. Re:Then/Than by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Methinks that in fifty years, Phonics will have supplanted rote memorization of spelling words, and we will have another language change occur.

      To put it in perspective, Shakespeare was considered entertainment for the crass and uneducated, while all the elites watched Italian operas and Greek plays..

      Language evolves. Get over it and move on.

  14. Oh the irony.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The next featured article: Professors: US "In Denial" Over Poor Maths Standards

  15. Time for democracy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Time to go free some more oil rich countries.

  16. Oh well, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I guess they'll just have to liberate Venezuela now...

  17. Exports by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's funny because they promised to export lots of this in Europe and encouraged European countries to worsen relationships with Russia based on this promise.

  18. Invasion Time! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Lets liberate an oil rich nation and win their hearts and minds.

  19. Coal. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The desire to consume energy will not go away, even if the petroleum does.

    Coal will be the inescapable American solution, air pollution be damned.

  20. Good news for Tesla by Powercntrl · · Score: 1

    Nothing motivates sales of electric vehicles quite like the promise of expensive gasoline. Time to invest in Tesla stock, mark my words.

    --

    ---
    DRM is like antifreeze, to the MPAA/RIAA it's sweet, to the consumers it's poison.
  21. Amen. by korbulon · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The potential ecological disasters created by such a massive shale extraction operation just ain't worth it. Monterey is surrounded by one of the most beautiful and ecologically diverse coastlines in the world, and they want to jeopardise it to get some short-term, supporting an industry wihich is basicallty like America's crack dealer, and every year seems to report record profits. Wat?

    It's the 21st century and we're still having these sorts of conversations about oil? Christ almighty, find another source of energy already, or consider slgihtly changing your behavior. If for nothing else, do it for the children.

    1. Re:Amen. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, the only current practical alternatives are coal, natural gas or nuclear. Which would you prefer?

      Wind and Solar have large production variances. I do think we could do some smart things like pairing them with natural gas plants to create a larger base load that uses less fuel but in and of themselves they're not going to solve our problem any time soon. Hydro has been expanded about as far as is reasonable already and geothermal isn't looking like it's going to scale particularly well.

      What we should be doing is building nuke plants like they're going out of style, implementing a carbon tax to encourage market forces to acknowledge the problem and dumping tons of money into energy research, but we don't seem to have the will for rational solutions.

  22. Monterey is a Global Treasure by Bob_Who · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Some of the most beautiful coastline on earth stretches from Santa Cruz to San Luis Obispo County. The waters are a National Marine Sanctuary. The Monterey Peninsula, Carmel, Pebble Beach, Big Sur are some of the most appealing destinations in California. The Los Padres National Forest extends into miles and miles of virgin wilderness from Ventana through the Santa Lucia and Coastal Range. The collision of the Pacific and Continental plates creates solid granite mountains rising up out of the pounding surf. East of the spectacular coastline is Steinbeck Country - the Salinas Valley, the salad bowl of America some of the most prosperous farmland on planet earth. It finds its water from the Salinas River which is the longest underground river on earth, as spring water percolates up from the range.

    The idea of fracking here just makes me wanna stop driving. I can't believe this project has been moving forward all of this time with FALSE DATA from the lying scumbag pigs that want money from resources no matter what the long term cost to the planet. This terrain is the result of tectonics for billions of years, and all some folks can appreciate is that the fault line makes it easier to dig, and the bay makes it easier to transport. In a thousand years there will be nothing worth remembering about this era except for the beauty that was spared from human destruction. Every one of us will be dead in a century, why is that momentary presence so arrogant as to exploit everything possible just because we can.

    Life will go on without sucking the Monterey Shale out of the ground so that some people get rich selling old technology to the "free" market. Somehow, I'm sure they can just move along to some renewable energy to sell when the fast easy bucks dry up. Good thing we found out it is already dry here, before they poisoned the golden goose.

    1. Re:Monterey is a Global Treasure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The idea of fracking here just makes me wanna stop driving.

      But of course you won't do that, so the fracking will continue.

      I'll bet you can't figure out who to point the finger at either.

  23. Mistakes in article? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Maybe I'm confused, but there seem to be a couple of problems in the article, regarding distance and location. One paragraph says, "The problem lies with the geology of the Monterey Shale, a 1,750-mile formation running down the center of California roughly from Sacramento to the Los Angeles basin and including some coastal regions."

    In the article's map, the northernmost formation point is south of San Francisco, way south of Sacramento. And even if the Monterey Shale went all the way up to Sacramento, it's still way less than 1,750 miles from Sacramento to LA.

    Also, according to http://oilshalegas.com/montereyshale.html, Monterey Shale is just that one large section that's about 1/4 the length of California. Monterey Shale doesn't include the smaller costal regions.

    I'm not trying to be critical, but if the article has mistakes regarding distance and location, I wonder if it might also have a mistake regarding volume of oil.

  24. Bubble, bubble... by Savage-Rabbit · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Perhaps this is a sign that the rumoured Shale bubble is beginning to burst.

    --
    Only to idiots, are orders laws.
    -- Henning von Tresckow
    1. Re:Bubble, bubble... by Rei · · Score: 2

      Only a tiny percent of US shale production is on the Monterrey Shale. And the very reason for this downgrade was that they were using recovery figures determined from the other shale plays, when the actual recovery rate from the Monterrey Shale is much lower than them due to its highly faulted geology and will take new technology to be recoverable at current prices.

      Which you'd have known had you actually read the articles.

      --
      For the love of Crom, am I the only one here who wants to keep the U.S. technologically competitive?
    2. Re:Bubble, bubble... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Only a tiny percent of US shale production is on the Monterrey Shale. And the very reason for this downgrade was that they were using recovery figures determined from the other shale plays, when the actual recovery rate from the Monterrey Shale is much lower than them due to its highly faulted geology and will take new technology to be recoverable at current prices.

      Which you'd have known had you actually read the articles.

      And what if this is the first of more such announcements? People have been bundling and flipping leases on shale fields in the same way as they did with mortgage backed securities and there is some indication that a number of those fields are of questionable quality. If somebody then comes along and declares that the shale fields backing these financial products are either over valued or even worthless in some cases a whole lot of people will be getting a flashback to the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis.

    3. Re:Bubble, bubble... by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      My heart bleeds for oil lease speculators.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    4. Re:Bubble, bubble... by ToddInSF · · Score: 1

      By the time people start wondering that about a bubble, it usually means the bubble has already burst.

      Sorry to be the one to tell y'all.

  25. it was always just a hope. by nimbius · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Peak US oil production begat a rampant speculative market, which in turn sends our oil and gas prices soaring and crashing on a yearly basis. This is always quietly dismissed as seasonal demand so as to coddle speculators and assuage the fears of our politicians. Sustained high crude prices and a rapidly diminishing prospect of respectable foreign policy with regard to the oil market during the Bush administration led many oil and gas producers and their lobbyists to declare a diamond in the rough. This shale oil and gas to be captured through fractionation came at a time when to deem it suspect was nihilistic and we all tacitly agreed it must be true for sake of our own collective future. As our war machine contracted and our focus returned somewhat toward domestic policies and act of sustainability it of course became increasingly difficult to ignore what during the past 8 years was a boon of blank checks and exemptions from the federal government to be applied toward the shale moneytrain. Halliburton certainly wouldnt be the first to fess up, and nor should they as theyd worked hard to secure by hook and by crook some of the most lucrative and reprehensible federal exemptions and contracts in recent history. Shale is good, shale is great.

    No. Like an alcoholic stumbling from a hot malt liquor hangover into the nearest gas station we scrambled to find anything to take the hurt away. That we like the rest of the world would have to firm up our collective constitutions and make seriously warranted changes was simply too much. We crawled back into shale oils warm cockle and clutched our crossover SUV for one more year. We looked to the tar sands and their beleaguered machination of destruction and waste as no more than a fine bourbon whiskey we partook of on occasion. Science, like a distant cousin with the bail money for the last bender, is shuffling us along into the rather unpleasant sunlight once again with heavy heart and a morose sigh. We either change or we die, because at this point Science will have existed as much with us as it has without us.

    --
    Good people go to bed earlier.
  26. Never mind by Stumbles · · Score: 1

    the wookie behind the curtain. I smell bullshit.

    --
    My karma is not a Chameleon.
  27. More tax breaks for the oil companies next year? by WarpedMind · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Wonder how much more of a tax break the oil companies will get because of this. My understanding is that they get a write-off as they deplete a reserve. It is sort of like a capital depreciation. I wonder if the reserve estimate will change that calculation resulting in larger tax breaks since they will have a depleted their asset at a faster rate than previously expected.

  28. Fixed the fix by justthinkit · · Score: 1

    Liberian oils don't want even 1 drop of it removed from the ground.

    --
    I come here for the love
  29. Grammar check by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "play seems to have much less recoverable oil and gas then previously hoped."

    Seriously... then... than... same fucking word.

  30. Distributed Solar by tquasar · · Score: 2

    Dear Oil Company, I have a bunch of batteries. And sunshine. And a thing that makes a light bulb go on. Piss off .

    1. Re:Distributed Solar by electrosoccertux · · Score: 1

      Dear Oil Company,
      I have a bunch of batteries. And sunshine. And a thing that makes a light bulb go on.
      Piss off .

      Dear tquasar, it looks like your power comes from coal, and will for the near and far future unless your politicians build nuclear plants.

    2. Re:Distributed Solar by tquasar · · Score: 1

      Yeah, of course it does. And nat gas plants, some in Mexico. There is a wind turbine mess nearby that doesn't have wind or produce very much juice. My politicians don't do labor so are likely not gonna build a nuke power plant. San Onofre (SONGS) is being de-started or un-operated due to a defective heat exchanger. There's much more to this, later. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

  31. Not quite right by sjbe · · Score: 0

    Last week e.g. the Dutch railways announced that from next year on, 100% of their operations will run on electric power from renewable sources, mainly wind, bought from a total of 5 north west European countries

    Which is a load of nonsense. They might be paying for that amount of power from those sources but the stuff that actually powers their trains is co-mingled with all the other sources of power including fossil fuels and nuclear. Unless you run dedicated lines from the power supply to the end user there is no way that their trains are only powered by electricity from a specific source.

    1. Re:Not quite right by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      I don't think this is about mingling electrons, this is probably more about who they're paying for it. Un-mingling the electrons in the grid graph edges wouldn't change the sources and sinks.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    2. Re:Not quite right by sjbe · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Un-mingling the electrons in the grid graph edges wouldn't change the sources and sinks.

      Quite correct and exactly my point.

      Unfortunately it does create the potential problem of being unable to verify the sources meaning the power company could (theoretically) be lying to raise profits. Let's say hypothetically that the wind turbines they are pulling from can generate 100MW (made up nice round number) and the trains need 200MW (again a made up number) to operate. The power company could just say the wind turbines can generate 200MW (who's going to check?) and make up the difference by buying/generating the power from other cheaper sources but allowing them to bill more. Only way to be sure this isn't happening is to audit them.

    3. Re:Not quite right by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Even if that could happen, I don't think the railway company would be at fault here. They'd simply be the victim of a fraud. (I hope you've recently audited your shoe manufacturer - they could be lying to you about not using slave labor!)

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    4. Re:Not quite right by the+eric+conspiracy · · Score: 1

      So they are sucking up all the renewable power in order to deliver trainloads of coal to the coal plants that are being built to replace the shut down nuclear plants.

      Makes sense to me.

    5. Re:Not quite right by vikingpower · · Score: 1

      Switched networks built up out of segments, ever heard of those ?

      --
      Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
  32. Yeah, right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    From this administration, there's certainly no ulterior motive for saying that there's less oil than there really is...............yeah, right. They hate fossil fuels and will do anything and everything that they can to downplay and denigrate it.

  33. Money is irrelevant... by KonoWatakushi · · Score: 1, Troll

    The goal is not to make money for a few, but to produce wealth for the people. That requires energy, which fossil fuels will be incapable of providing in the future no matter the cost. There is no intrinsic value in money, and markets/legislation do not produce energy.

    There is an unfortunate disconnect between business/economics and reality which desperately needs to be bridged. Only sane energy policy based in reality can rescue us from a truly dismal future. (Sane is recognizing that wind and solar are only capable of serving a small niche, and reality dictates that the bulk of energy must come from nuclear. Those fighting nuclear are only serving the interests of coal, which is the only practical alternative.)

    1. Re:Money is irrelevant... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2

      That requires energy, which fossil fuels will be incapable of providing in the future no matter the cost.

      We have enough existing coal reserves to produce the current US annual energy consumption for several hundred years, all by themselves.

      Regardless of whether you like coal -- it does have its down side -- statements like "we're running out of energy" are simply false.

    2. Re:Money is irrelevant... by KonoWatakushi · · Score: 2

      There is a lot of coal, but apart from the coal industry, there is a universal sentiment that we don't want to continue mining or burning it. In fact, a significant number of coal plants are being closed in the US and replaced with gas, which is not nearly so plentiful. The price of natural gas is highly volatile, and we will see a steep increase along with demand. Prices may be low today, but once new export terminals are operational, it will pour out into the global market, and be rapidly depleted while local prices rise to match. An energy policy dependent upon continuing availability of low cost natural gas and perpetual renewable subsidies is extremely foolish.

      Fossil fuels are finite and recovery is increasingly difficult and costly; to claim otherwise is absurd. Cheap oil and gas will not last, especially in the face of rapidly increasing global energy demand.

    3. Re:Money is irrelevant... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1
      I don't disagree with much of what you say, but it's all beside the point. The (false) comment I was replying to was this one:

      That requires energy, which fossil fuels will be incapable of providing in the future no matter the cost.

      Those other things don't make that comment less false.

    4. Re:Money is irrelevant... by KonoWatakushi · · Score: 1

      That requires energy, which fossil fuels will be incapable of providing in the future no matter the cost.

      Those other things don't make that comment less false.

      Even coal is a finite resource and it will run out in the future. It is assumed that we will stop mining before reaching an EROEI approaching 1 at infinite cost. In practical terms, I still don't see how that statement can be false. The point is that access to energy is of primary importance, and the welfare of humanity ought to be placed above the business interests of the fossil fuel industry.

      Everyone benefits from affordable sustainable energy, and preventing the deployment of nuclear power maintains an artificial scarcity which only benefits the fossil fuel industry. Those in control, appear determined to bring society to the brink of destruction in order to exploit that scarcity, and people who entertain the fantasy of a world powered exclusively by the sun and wind are only helping them.

    5. Re:Money is irrelevant... by triffid_98 · · Score: 1

      It may be an environmental train wreck but if push comes to shove we can make our gasoline out it (coal).

      ...and just like our space program you can thank those cuddly Nazis for it.

    6. Re:Money is irrelevant... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Even coal is a finite resource and it will run out in the future.

      Your arguments fall under the category of "moving the goalposts", which is not a valid means of argument.

      You made a comment that was simply false. Now you're making arguments that things LIKE your original comment, but not quite the same, are true.

      That's all great, and some (or even all) of them might be true, but I repeat: it still doesn't make your original comment more true.

  34. Curious claim about shale oil reserves by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2, Insightful

    By official estimates the Monterey Shale formation makes up 2/3 of the shale reserves in the US and by some estimates 1/3 of all crude reserves in the US

    What about the Green River shale formation which is estimated to have 3 TRILLION barrels of oil? I don't get how that 13.7 billion barrels originally estimated in the Monterey formation comprised 2/3rds of the shale reserves, when we have a 3 TRILLION barrel reserve. By my count, it's around 1/3rd of 1 percent.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    1. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by AndrewBuck · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The green river shale is a different kind of thing. The monterray and Bakken shale formations contain actual oil, the Green River formation contains kerogen -- a waxy substance that will turn into oil if you heat it to several hundred degrees for a period of years (yes years).

      The best analogy I have heard to put this into perspective is that the Bakken is something like a rock that has been left soaking in a bucket of oil for a while and the oil has seeped into the pores of the rock. The green river shale is more like a brick that has had candle wax dripped on it. Both contain energy which can be extracted, but one yields oil directly whereas the other is merely a feedstock to make oil.

      The last I had heard, no one has ever made a commercially successfull attempt to convert kerogen into oil. It can be done, just not anything like economically, and the environmental costs of doing so would be massive. Now of course the "free market" folks will say, "well the price will just rise until the kerogen is extractable", and they are right, the price will rise to something like 1000 dollars per barrel, and then we will have lots of that "cheap" green river shale oil available on the market, something like 3 trillion barrels worth.

      -AndrewBuck

    2. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Considering that the *world* extractable shale oil is estimated at 1 trillion barrels, makes you wonder where did you get the 3 tril. number for a single shale formation? You may be mixing up extractable and in-place: the latter is technically there, but getting it out is a net loss. Some of that amount might be reasonably extractable if oil prices rise substantially, some of it is a net *energy* loss, so no price increase makes extraction reasonable.

    3. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by asylumx · · Score: 1

      This article is about recoverable oil, and according to wikipedia "the technology for converting rock into an oil from the Green River oil shale deposit has not been developed, and it has never been profitably implemented at any significant scale."

    4. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by Sir_Eptishous · · Score: 2

      This is why there is a fight right now about the proposed pipeline from The Basin to Salt Lake to transport the waxy crude.

      The pipeline has to be heated to keep the "oil" from congealing:
      "Uinta’s black wax crude must remain above 95 degrees and yellow wax above 115 degrees or it’s liable to congeal."

      The proposed pipeline would cross several of the watersheds where those that live along the Wasatch Front get their drinking water.

      So the question is, what is more important, a stable supply of drinking water, or the ability of a small minority to make even more money from refining waxy crude?

      --
      We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
    5. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by AndrewBuck · · Score: 2

      Although I largely agree with the sentiment you are expressing, there is a similar confusion here as well. I read through the article you linked and what they are talking about transporting is normal crude that has a high paraffin wax compnonent in it. This too, though, is different from the kerogen bearing rocks in the green river shale. There are a couple clues throughout the article that this is what they are talking about, but the most telling is this blurb from the last paragraph...

      "For better or worse, Uinta Basin oil and gas production is increasing and expected to double by 2022 to the equivalent of 50 million barrels a year. Much of that growth is expected to come from tar sands and oil shale, which exists in abundance in the basin but has yet to be commercially developed."

      Notice that they say that the tar sands there and the shale have yet to be produced commercially. Tar sands (depending on the depth and the oil content) generally can be produced commercially (it is an ugly mess but we can do it) since the job is merely to separate the thick, viscous oil from the sand. The kerogen in the green river shale (and many other shale formations) is a different beast entirely. For tar sand you heat the oil/sand mixture to soften up the oil and separate it out, but the conversion oil has already been done by heat from the earth. With kerogen, you need to heat the kerogen for a period of several years at something like 500 to 1000 degrees (usually done by pumping superheated steam into the ground). Then after this heating process is complete, you separate the oil in a manner similar to tar sands. This extra heating step at the beginning is why this will almost certainly never be used.

      Hope this clears up the confusion about these various resources.

      -AndrewBuck

    6. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Very interesting, some one plz mod this up!

    7. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Can the kerogen be refined directly, without converting first? or is the real problem melting it out of the ground?

      Also, what is the relative risk of refining at the site of extraction and transporting finished product, vs transporting crude to remote refineries (which will still need some storage and transport to end users), for both spillage risk and other risks? I'm thinkin' probably crude spills are more mess, but refined spills are more dangerous.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    8. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Green River contains about 3 trillion barrels, with half of that recoverable by current means. Monterey was never a significant shale oil deposit.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    9. Re:Curious claim about shale oil reserves by asylumx · · Score: 1

      You referenced the same article I did, but completely ignored the rest of the paragraph you quoted from.

  35. anyone who believed the bull by zeigerpuppy · · Score: 2

    Should have had a look at the production curves, tight, shale and fracked sources have very rapid decline. It's pretty much the definition of unsustainable.

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node...

  36. Ministry of Truth... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does anyone expect this "news" to be believed considering the political hacks in charge? What's even funnier is the obana sick duckers on slashdot who get paid to amen this crap in the name of leftist moonbat science.

  37. Private Industry not Gov. Agencies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    (P)The problem here is that a government organization is making all of these pronouncements and then the White House is making policy. Private industry does a much better job in determining what is really there and if it can be profitably gotten out. Even if private industry entices people in with high estimates, they won't continue drilling for long if they are losing the money they have gotten. The government, on the other hand, when they make a mistake, are not punished with lower profits. They just keep taxing.

    I'm not saying their estimates are right or wrong. I'm saying they don't have the proper motivation or expertise to be put in charge. People in private industry are always more cutting edge with expertise than government. And when I say they don't have "proper motivation", I'm referring to either insufficient motivation (since they don't directly profit from their decision being right) and/or I'm suggesting that their motivation is "tainted" by politics. For example:

    1) Suppose the re-evaluation is wrong and the shale really does have most of the original gas estimates. By publicly announcing that it doesn't, the administration has placed doubt on investments made on shale oil. The stock value of the companies goes down. The value of the land goes down. If an administration had political friends who wanted to buy the land cheap, this would be one way to do it. 2) By making such an announcement, the door is opened to a polically biased energy decision. They could simply block off potentially profitable oil shale areas from use. After all, once they are officially "unprofitable", there is no need to even try drilling here. They should, {sarcasm on} "Thank the government for its help and shut up" {sarcasm off}. 3) A bit of both.

    To summarize, the government should NOT be making such anouncements or decisions about energy policy and then force changes on individuals and companies. Why? Government agencies have a history of being biased and political in their decisions. They are often poor in their use of taxpayer money. Remember the solar companies supported with $billions by the feds that went "belly-up"? The EPA and BLM have also been criticized for decisions that seem to provide an advantage to political allies (not just this administration or party, either). Like it or not, private companies will do a better job of getting the gas out economically and doing it in a manner safe for the environment, especially if the feds keep their noses out. Just let the local people and government call the shots. After all, if a company knows it has to have local support, they will do all they can to make sure they make a profit while pleasing their new neighbors. A bureaucrat a thousand miles away in Washington could care less if a local neighbor has a rightful dispute if the company is a friend of "you know who" (not Voldemort, but someone politically favoured).

    Am I too suspicious? There's so much money involved in things like this. If this thing goes through, follow up and see whether someone else starts buying up the land or rights to use. Investigate, investigate, investigate. Then bring it up for all to see, even if the news doesn't.

  38. We need ecopatriotism by Eravnrekaree · · Score: 1

    The keystone xl pipeline from Canada is often brought up by the fact it heads to houston should raise alarm, this means shale oil could be shipped overseas and would do little to improve the market price for oil in the US. The oil companies do not want to lower oil prices in the US which is why they want Keystone XL, they want to charge a higher price on the international market so they need to get it out of the US. The current pipelines terminate in the midwest refineries which keeps the oil in the US which is what we want. We also have Canada boxed in here. To the west of Alberta lies hundreds of miles of jagged mountains. It would be expensive, maybe impossible for Canada to build an oil pipeline over the mountains. So we would want the oil to go to midwest refineries, and the pipeline to end at those refineries, and serve the US, this is what we would do if we are smart, we do not want Keystone XL which goes to Houston.

    While oil may not run out in the immediate future, small declines in production would have devastating impacts, you dont need oil or fossil fuel depletion to get bad effects, the bad effects start when you hit peak and production declines, and this may not be very far away, long, long before we will ever get to depletion.

    If we were smart, we would encourage cities around a "cell" based design with good housing designed for workers and their families located near the employment areas, or design things so that public transportation runs between housing and the employment center, and save as much remaining fossil fuel for agricultural production.

    Ending immigration in order to avoid over-exertion of the natural resources would also be of great benefit. As has been discussed, immigration into the US is stressing already finite resources which should be entirely reserved for the existing population. As well, they result in tech jobs being stolen from American citizens, because there is actually no shortage of tech workers, and retail, construction, housekeeping, and low skilled jobs being stolen from college students and non-college educated populations. The democratic party actually wants to swell the welfare rolls by helping illegals steal jobs from Americans. This shows the traitorous nature of the party which in my opinion is vastly worse than the GOP, who at least are nationalists and actually seem to care a bit more about Americans rather than do everything they can to help illegals steal the country from Americans.

    For a solution we need a strong nationalist who will seal the borders for good and be very strict with enforcing border laws, including mass deportation of illegals, but will also do quite a lot to help local governments develop transportation planning that minimises the use of cars, encourages better public transit systems, including by moving corporate offices to where workers are rather than expecting workers to drive massive distances into downtowns.

  39. The fix is in by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    California will not need to deal with expanded fracking and Obama can use it as an excuse to further hobble US energy policy. Why not let the free market decide whether there is recoverable oil and gas? Oil companies are not dewy-eyed ideologues and, if there is no commercial potential, will not hesitate to say so.

  40. Diversify... And do it QUICKLY! by Sir_Eptishous · · Score: 1

    It's interesting to read the back and forth arguments anytime fossil fuels are discussed.

    For some reason people, especially those benefitting from the carbon extraction industry, often take a very black and white view of the situation. Their view is usually that renewables are a waste of time, and that only our carbon based energy paradigm is practicable.

    The reality is that the rest of the "First World" is moving ahead rapidly with renewable energy.

    Whether it is China, Germany or Brazil the leadership in these other countries are taking the steps necessary to insulate themselves from the dependence on carbon based energy(fossil fuels). They are doing what is known in investing as "diversifying".

    Right... I know you've heard this before...

    Sure, we still need oil and gas. Of course we do. Oil should be used for plastics, etc. Gas for heating, energy, transportation, etc; But it seems to me this whole fracking boom that is going on is just another way to slow the adoption of renewable energy.

    But what the US should be doing is throwing itself fully into renewable energy.

    What are we waiting for, a "Sign from God"?
    That sign from God may not be a pleasant one.

    Forget Solar, forget Wind. There is vast Geothermal energy potential in the western US. Now, go ahead and remember Solar, because there is vast solar potential in the southewestern US, via Solar Thermal. Why aren't we moving full speed ahead on this? Wind energy? Sure, the plains, all the way from Montana to Texas have loads of potential?

    The US could be a leader in renewable energy.
    Obama said as much during his 2008 campaign, yet I haven't seen this switch to renewables.
    America, it's time to wake the F up.

    --
    We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
  41. Thorium by electrosoccertux · · Score: 1

    I'm with you on fusion.

    please educate yourself about Thorium. Very safe. Watch:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

    1. Re:Thorium by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 1

      "Very Safe" for a metal with such pyrokinetic behavior is not necessarily how I'd describe it. But some casual research does show it be more promising than uranium for longer term fuel sources: I'll keep this in mind: thank you for the pointer.

    2. Re:Thorium by electrosoccertux · · Score: 1

      third and fourth in that playlist are where it gets interesting. I should not have linked first vid it is ahem boring.

  42. Thank God by JimSadler · · Score: 1

    This may actually mean that a little less of our nation will be shredded, ripped asunder and poisoned.

  43. Re:More tax breaks for the oil companies next year by electrosoccertux · · Score: 1

    Nah. Investment expenditures are at all time highs. Besides, they'll just pass that subsidy-expiration on to the consumer.
    http://econbrowser.com/wp-cont...

  44. Greenies are the cause for the energy crisis.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've pointed this out before, and I will probably point this out again: If you are true environmentalist, you _support_ both the nuclear power and renewable energy. If you are just a "pretend" environmentalist (the ones with the mental problems), you only believe in "green" energy.

    - Coal fired power plants: China is bringing one on-line EVERY few days. Anyone seen pictures of Shanghai lately?
    - Every single curie of radioactive waste or contamination created by man is cumulatively LESS than that created by the worlds coal fired power plants EVERY 6 years. Yes, people, flyash is radioactive. And nuclear energy does not release carbon dioxide.
    -Three Mile Island's radiation release was the same as living downwind of a single megawatt class coal-fired power plant for 6 months.
    - If the greenies had stuck to "Nuclear Disarmament" (yes, that is what the "peace" symbol means) instead of going all anti-anything-nuke, we might, just might, never had experienced the oil crisis of the 1970's. Oil probably would not be the "strategic" resource it is today.

    End of rant.

  45. Peak Oil by mrflash818 · · Score: 1

    “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” -- Joseph Goebbels

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

    http://mazamascience.com/OilEx...

    'Oil production on Alaska's North Slope, which has been declining since 1988 when average annual production peaked at 2.0 million barrels per day, is transported to market through the TransAlaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Because TAPS needs to maintain throughput above a minimum threshold level to remain operational'
    http://www.eia.gov/todayinener...

    --
    Uh, Linux geek since 1999.
  46. Perception of Scarcity by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    the first rule of owning Natural Resources, is to tell everybody how scarce it is so you can charge them more money.

  47. This is slashdot, geek units please by mrflash818 · · Score: 2

    This is slashdot

    kilo barrels
    Mega barrels
    Giga barrels
    Tera barrels

    Please!

    ; )

    --
    Uh, Linux geek since 1999.
  48. Got Oil? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Oil alternatives are fine, however; oil still produces products such as plastics and certain types of medicine accessories.

  49. Let's be specific by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What degree. What is the job? Does his degree relate to the job? How much per hour is he paid. His is job a union job? His he pulling in the money because he is working overtime?

  50. Trust Obama ??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What the hell is unrecoverable? They'll make it recoverable, and they'll get that oil. The only question is whether a knuckle-head President is going to be a stick in the mud.

    Do you expect anyone to be believe a report from the Obama administration? Their stated goal is higher oil prices, not lower. They don't like the new oil discoveries because they throw cold water on their propaganda. Meanwhile, America must take the bullet of higher energy prices, and other countries will prosper by fully utilizing their natural resources.

  51. Invisible Hand says kill Coal Oil Gas subsidies by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

    To have the marketplace function efficiently, you need to end all subsidies and tax exemptions for coal, oil, and natural gas.

    This includes cheap land and sea leases.

    Fix that and stop exporting fossil fuels to China.

    There: fixed.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  52. I seem to recall... by publiclurker · · Score: 0

    a couple of collapsing bridges that weren't apparently in very good shape.

  53. Grammar check by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Do you drive a CAR or a CAT? If one letter confuses you, then let me help you out here... YOU DON'T DRIVE YOUR FUCKING CAT TO WORK ASSHOLE...

    "Than" is used for comparison. "Then" is not used for comparison.

    Saying "then" and "than" are the same thing speaks to your low intelligence level because you obviously cannot comprehend the simple difference. Go back to school.

    Just seeing the misapplication of these words is annoying enough, let alone some loser who tries to make a non-point. STFU.

  54. did you actually believe by Twelfth+Harmonic · · Score: 1

    there is enough oil in north america but they "choose" not to extract it? fossil fuels are trending down. yesterday's russia/china deal told the west something very important: "when the oil reserves in the ME dry up, you better have found an alternative"

  55. Re:Multiple Factors by HiThere · · Score: 1

    I would like to know why you classify a backer of the KeystoneXL pipeline as someone who hates the oil industry. Perhaps he hates some part of it, that wouldn't be a surprise, but to claim that he hates it in general while being a crucial supporter of the Keystone pipeline I find difficult to understand.

    --

    I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
  56. Grid parity is imminent for solar; externalities by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    Amazing so many slashdotters ignore it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...
    "Deutsche Bank says, that in January 2014 already more than 19 countries are under grid parity for solar power and sees starting a second gold rush for solar power..."

    Of course, had we been paying the true cost of fossil fuels up front (pollution costs, health costs, defense costs, democratic costs of centralized wealth, other risks) as well as for nuclear (no insurance company will touch it), then renewables and energy efficiency (including passive solar) would have crowded out everything else in the market in the 1980s. Instead we got the Reagan years.

    President Carter was wrong about a lot of things regarding energy policy. He should have focused more on appropriately pricing fossil fuel and nuclear externalities into the market, with any related taxes distributed generally as a basic income. Hard for him to do that with nukes as a previous nuclear engineer perhaps. But he was right when he said:
    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americ...
    "We are at a turning point in our history. There are two paths to choose. One is a path I've warned about tonight, the path that leads to fragmentation and self-interest. Down that road lies a mistaken idea of freedom, the right to grasp for ourselves some advantage over others. That path would be one of constant conflict between narrow interests ending in chaos and immobility. It is a certain route to failure.
    All the traditions of our past, all the lessons of our heritage, all the promises of our future point to another path, the path of common purpose and the restoration of American values. That path leads to true freedom for our nation and ourselves. We can take the first steps down that path as we begin to solve our energy problem.
    Energy will be the immediate test of our ability to unite this nation, and it can also be the standard around which we rally. On the battlefield of energy we can win for our nation a new confidence, and we can seize control again of our common destiny."

    We took the wrong path to fragmentation and self-interest under Reagan and have gone down that road in the USA for about thirty years. So many have suffered, including in the most recent financial crisis. It is a long hard walk back to community and public interest but we have to do it.

    Pope Francis has been writing about this like in his book "The Joy of the Gospel: Evangelii Gaudium" which I just got to see what he had to say on the topic of economics and social justice as informed by ethics.

    Fortunately, many people have worked at solutions anyway despite this thirty years of widespread pervasive market failure to account for externalities or distribute purchasing power equitably. Thanks to the hard work of engineers, scientists, and entrepreneurs along with consumers who purchased expensive products anyway for environmental and practical reasons, now renewables and efficiency are cheaper than fossil fuels in many situation despite the unaccounted for externalities. This is a huge tremendous success but you would not know it reading most of the slashdot comments on this story. Part of the issue is that until grid parity is reached, people still deny it will happen and most do nothing. After grid parity is reached and surpassed, then it is foolish economically to use anything but renewables. Just like humanity did not leave the stone age because we ran out of rocks (but we still use rock for building sometimes), and humanity did not stop using whale oil because we ran out of it, so too we will not stop using fossil fuels because we run out of them (not will we likely stop using liquid chemical carriers for energy, but they may be made by renewables and likely someday fusion).

    Granted, we in theory know how to make much safer nuclear plants too. In theory, somehtign like Thorium-based power run by respo

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  57. LIked your sig link video on GW & Free Markete by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    Well done: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    See also my related comment about how to us the free market to deal with Global Warming (GW) issues and also Fracking:
    http://news.slashdot.org/comme...

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    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  58. Agreed; my comment on externalities & alterati by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1
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    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  59. Since this is about California - CAISO by mrflash818 · · Score: 1

    CAISO utility electricity generation web page. Daily load, generation, and fractional contributions by renewables.

    Refer to the middle and bottom graphs.

    http://www.caiso.com/outlook/S...

    --
    Uh, Linux geek since 1999.
  60. Don't conflate "choose not to" with "can't even." by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Planes that guzzle fuel like it cost $.25 a gallon, and are so incredibly loud that every airport they go to has to pretty much ignore all noise pollution regulations, aren't practical anymore.

    Plus, the market for them - business travellers who need to be there a few hours sooner - has dried up, because if it's that important, they'll just use the Internet.

  61. Wait... where did I see this before? by Paul+Mallako · · Score: 1
    1. Re:Wait... where did I see this before? by Paul+Mallako · · Score: 1
  62. Re:Multiple Factors by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    I would like to know why you classify a backer of the KeystoneXL pipeline as someone who hates the oil industry.

    Obama sure is a funny backer, refusing to allow it to proceed an odd expression of support.

    Unless he mentioned at some point he supports it? Yes, he talks a lot but it means nothing; pay attention to what is done.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  63. From the summary ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Next Month the EIA.gov will be announcing cutting it's estimates

    "its".

  64. It can't be... by TheGAGLine · · Score: 1

    The science was in

  65. Re:Multiple Factors by HiThere · · Score: 1

    I don't know that he's ever actually *said* that he backs it, but he refused to allow it to be killed when it was possible. (I will grant that he's a pretty funny backer, but that's true about most of his programs.)

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    I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.