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No, a Huge Asteroid Is Not "Set To Wipe Out Life On Earth In 2880"
An anonymous reader writes "Phil Plait wants you to know that asteroid 1950 DA is very, very unlikely to hit the Earth in 2880, despite what you may have read. He writes: "As it happens, 1950 DA is what's called a 'near-Earth asteroid', because its orbit sometimes brings it relatively close to Earth. I'll note that I mean close on a cosmic scale. Looking over the next few decades, a typical pass is tens of millions of kilometers away, with some as close as five million kilometers — which is still more than ten times farther away than the Moon! Still, that's in our neighborhood, which is one of the reasons this asteroid is studied so well. It gets close enough that we can get a decent look at it when it passes. Can it impact the Earth? Yes, kindof. Right now, the orbit of the asteroid doesn't bring it close enough to hit us. But there are forces acting on asteroids over time that subtly change their orbits; one of them is called the YORP effect, a weak force that arises due to the way the asteroid spins and radiates away heat. The infrared photons it emits when it's warm carry away a teeny tiny bit of momentum, and they act pretty much like an incredibly low-thrust rocket. Over many years, this can change both the rotation of the asteroid as well as the shape of its orbit."
Everything I've read said it's very unlikely to hit Earth in 2880. One chance in three hundred does not "likely" make.
On the other hand, 1 in 300 is pretty close to the chance of a Straight coming up without a Draw....
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
It's not like any other unknown celestial body could just show its ugly face from behind the sun and hit us while we are happily spending billions in stupid wars.
Especially when you compare it to the gravitational changes induces by each pass by the Earth/moon system and its pass of Mars and (more weakly) Jupiter.
Each one affects it FAR more than anything from photon pressure.
If we can't sort out an asteroid coming right at us by 2880, we kind of deserve what we get. I'm not going to worry about it too much in any event.
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
I wasn't particularly worried about a 2880pocalypse to begin with.
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
Sometimes I think what America needs is mother nature hitting the proverbial reset button on us.
It'll be amazing if "America" is still around in 2080, much less 2880.
The entire population of the 13 Colonies was less than the current population of Iowa and they stood up a country just fine. China doesn't keep itself together by playing nice, and we really need to avoid going the Mao Zedong route.
My God, it's Full of Source!
OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
THAT specific meteor isn't, another may be.
"Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
Tunguska, Chelyabinsk, you see the pattern.
The heavens punish always those evil comunists. New York and Los Angeles only get destroyed in the movies so we don't need to worry to spend filthty loads of money in more important things like the military, politicians, sports and TV all of them keep us safe of the terrists.
An event that has a one-in-a-million odds of destroying our civilization is actually pretty bad, in my mind. Even if you just do the math of 7 billion people, that's an 'expected value' of 7,000 casualties. But in addition to killing people, it would destroy the work of millions before them - the art, the literature, the achievements, the history, the future too. There must be some value in that. I know realistically we have to accept some risk just because we can't afford to deal with all the risks out there, on top of the risks from global warming down here. But the threshold should be really really low, and we should pursue plans and technologies to defend ourselves from asteroid impacts, even really unlikely ones.
I was worried for a minute. But now I know I'll be okay.
The USA is only 4 percent of the globe's population, get your head out of your ass and consider the whole human world.
according the some billboard on I-35 the bible says the world will end in 2017
lose != loose
It's really 2018, sorry for the miscalc. We'll be more careful next time.
Table-ized A.I.
Is that a royal decree of a governmental death sentence?
In 2880 I won't give a fuck. /NBS
So they're saying they're not sure which year it will hit? That's worse!
Damn. The over/under was set to 2881 and I put $50 on the under.
You are welcome on my lawn.
Thousands of Space Nutters turn off their 3D printers and wait for the next Extinction of the Species ...
Oh wait I will be long dead and never know if it was true or not , is it too late to cancel that asteroid insurance I bought?
Tunguska, Chelyabinsk, you see the pattern.
The heavens punish always those evil comunists.
Yes! At Tunguska, even before they existed!
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
I had bought a bunch of futures based on there being an impact in that year....
Kind enough not to point out that by that time 'man himself' has already long accomplished what said asteroid some 800 years before was assured not to be able to do for other reasons.
Humans in general have been greedy and hate riddled since before written history.
So I shouldn't have quit my job and sold my house? Is that what they're trying to say?
There are way too many variables involved to be able to predict that something is going to hit us in the medium to long term.
You would need to precisely map the trajectory and momentum of every single object, large and small, which could have a gravitational influence on the candidate impactor, then calculate the effect of each on the other, then iterate for the change in trajectory and momentum imparted.
Predicting a hit in 2880 is just clinically absurd.
Everything I've read said it's very unlikely to hit Earth in 2880. One chance in three hundred does not "likely" make.
Especially since it is actually 1 in 4,000 or 0.0248%. Still I'd actually think it would be a good thing to have the odds a lot higher, like 90%, with a lead time like this of 800+ years. To date the existential threat posed by wars have caused science to make massive advances but this has come at a huge cost of misery and death
Think of the scientific advances that could come from an existential threat that, instead of pitting us against each other, actually puts all of humanity on the same side for a change. In the past 800 years we have come from the dark ages to the internet age. If we can't get it together enough to develop the technology needed to cause a small deflection to an asteroid in the next 800 years then I'd say it was probably time for evolution to give it a second roll of the dice.
American, European or whites peoples in general are minority. More diversity mean more white peoples. There is too much brown peoples in our societies. We need to protect the minorities. We need to protect ourselves.... Or as you put it, get your head out of your ass and consider the whole human world.
Also Islam is a real threat. Don't wait until they put a gun to your head and ask you to convert. It will be too late then.
Every time I turn around I hear things like "The polar ice caps are gonna melt due to global warming, flood the earth, and wipe out all life on the planet", or "A giant earthquake is gonna cause California (where I live) to sink into the ocean killing everybody", or "A giant asteroid is gonna hit the earth, cause the sky to become black, and wipe out all life on the plaent".
And every single time some scientist come out and says "Don't worry guys, it's not gonna happen" and my hopes and dreams are crushed. :(
Like most of us care if the world will end in 2880.
The majority of our planet only cares how their profits will turn out next week.
Millions of people play lotery that is 1 in 10,000,000 or less. That is high enough for them and is actually 0.000000004%.
2880 is so far away we have nothing to fear. If humanity survives in some form to the 29th century it will be sufficiently advanced to make a meal out of the said asteroid. It may not even make prime time TV.
If its 2080...yes we may have something to think about.
Tat Tvam Asi
Then again, if we're still stuck on this rock, arguing over pieces of land by then, I guess we deserve it...
"which is still more than ten times farther away than the Moon!"
Completely inappropriate use of an exclamation point, as this is not nearly the main point of the article, and certainly not a point that warrants such a calamitous use of punctuation.
I was kind of hoping for a global wipeout.
That asteroid won't wipe out human life because humans will have already been extinct for centuries.
That's what they WANT you to think...
The storm that took out 50 cities and terminated the Bronze Age is due back around 2800. See Cambridge Conference http://web.archive.org/web/20100117082312/http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/CCNet-homepage.htm
When Yellowstone goes, you'll have no place to stay, oh no.
Mean old National Park, taught US to weep and moan
Mean old Supervolcano, taught US to weep and moan
Thinking bout my baby and my happy home
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
I have no intentions of living past 2863 - 800 years is enough for anyone - so why would I care?
Blowing some karma on this one...
>> No, a Huge Asteroid Is Not "Set To Wipe Out Life On Earth In 2880"
Damnit.
I can't speak for the rest of those millions playing the lottery, but I play occasionally for fun without an expectation of winning. I realize there's the chance, and dream about what I'd do with the money. I am happy that it's used to make someone's dreams come true and to fund state parks, education, and economic development.
Won't someone think of the children? It's fine and all that you don't need to see 2880, but today's children may want to see 2900.