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Seismological Society of America Claims Fracking Reactivated Ohio Fault

eldavojohn writes There have been suspicions that fracking has caused minor earthquakes in Ohio but last year seismic data recorded by the Earthscope Transportable Array was analyzed by the Seismological Society of America using template matching and has resulted in a new publication and press release making the statement that Hilcorp Energy's fracking in Poland Township in March of 2014 "did not create a new fault, rather it activated one that we didn't know about prior to the seismic activity." The earthquakes occurred in the Precambrian basement and lead the researchers to posit that further unknown faults may be activated by fracking. The press release ends with urging for "close cooperation among government, industry and the scientific community as hydraulic fracturing operations expand in areas where there's the potential for unknown pre-existing faults."

35 of 168 comments (clear)

  1. Good luck with that. by gstoddart · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Despite there being no published science about its safety, and despite evidence that it is actually polluting wells and ground water ... it will keep happening.

    Because government officials are all paid heavily by the oil and gas industry to make damned sure they can do anything they want to, right up to tearing up private property because they want to.

    These short sighted clowns only care about profits, and don't give a damn about anything else.

    I can't imagine government is going to start reigning in corporations any time soon ... which means all laws and policy will continue to be so skewed in favor of corporations as to be laughable.

    America is nothing but an oligarchy these days.

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    1. Re:Good luck with that. by ganjadude · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I could have sworn that the video of burning sink water was proven to be a fake. not in the sense that it didnt actually happen, but on the basis that it had nothing to do with fracking??

      --
      have you seen my sig? there are many others like it but none that are the same
    2. Re:Good luck with that. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "America is nothing but an oligarchy these days."

      When was it not? The few people in power have always controlled everything, not just in America, but everywhere. And it will always be like that.

    3. Re:Good luck with that. by Oligonicella · · Score: 2, Informative

      You are correct. That water had gasses in it before the fracking started.

    4. Re:Good luck with that. by poetmatt · · Score: 2

      To be clear, none of what you're talking about is really related to the pollution of the ground water.

      The pollution of groundwater is from the actual chemicals used in some fracking and isn't tied to the whole "burning sink water" thing. Quantifying burning sink water as being tied to fracking will not happen, but quantifying what's in the water and when? That has occurred.

      Likewise, quantifying increased seismic activity to fracking has occurred.

    5. Re:Good luck with that. by jellomizer · · Score: 3, Funny

      New York State had put a stop to Fracking. And NY is about the most political state out there.

      However we need unbiased science on the effect. In the meantime, if they want to Frack, fine... However if something goes wrong, they will be responsible and will need to pay to clean it up, for the next hundred years. The Fracking companies should happily agree to these terms because their method is so clean and safe. That there should be no risk in giving the citizens the extra protection.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    6. Re:Good luck with that. by ganjadude · · Score: 2

      as for the water issue, i dont know enough to weigh in on that. as for the seismic activity, are not a few smaller quakes much better than the large one that will be coming??

      --
      have you seen my sig? there are many others like it but none that are the same
    7. Re:Good luck with that. by aaron4801 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Increased seismic activity, sure. But has there been any documented seismic damage? A bunch of 2-mile-deep 2.0 earthquakes are not even going to be felt by more than the most sensitive equipment. If there is a larger fault in the area, then frequent, small releases of energy are good for man-made structures on the surface by not letting the fault store up too much energy. It's when fault stops moving that you should get scared.

    8. Re:Good luck with that. by SydShamino · · Score: 5, Insightful

      They (the owners of the company, not the pseudo-person company itself) would happily agree to those terms, knowing that they are protected by investor and bankruptcy laws, and eventually their own deaths and inheritance laws. Those terms are thus meaningless. Long-term environmental protection must be done through preventative regulation, not through post-damage punishment, as the time scales ensure those responsible cannot be adequately punished.

      I'm not making any claim as to whether fracking causes long-term environmental damage (though I'm happy it's not happening under my house), just pointing out that if it did, reactive punishment wouldn't stop it.

      --
      It doesn't hurt to be nice.
    9. Re:Good luck with that. by ArmoredDragon · · Score: 2

      That was my first thought. If there was a fault line that is being activated, then they're effectively settling the tectonic mass before it can buckle any further, effectively giving us a few small harmless quakes now instead of a big highly destructive one later.

    10. Re:Good luck with that. by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2, Informative

      In the industry paid-for response TruthLand they admit that it was due to fracking, but claim that the particular well in question was not properly protected with a concrete barrier. They claim that it should not happen elsewhere if the wells are constructed properly and steps are taken to avoid contamination.

      --
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  2. what if by ganjadude · · Score: 4, Insightful

    what if causing a number of small earthquakes prolongs the release of a large one. Less energy is being pent up so the slippage should do less damage

    --
    have you seen my sig? there are many others like it but none that are the same
    1. Re:what if by Solandri · · Score: 4, Informative

      This is a reactivated fault line -- not something that was due to go off. Every single time this topic comes up, some cadre upvotes this trash ...

      This is basic high school physics. Energy cannot be created or destroyed, it is conserved. If the amount of energy the fracking put into the ground was less than the amount of energy released from the earthquake, then clearly there was another source of that excess energy. Mainly, tectonic movements had built up stresses into the ground, which would have eventually been released as a natural earthquake if there had been no fracking.

      Active fault lines are good. It means tectonic stresses are being regularly released. Inactive fault lines can be good or bad. If there are no more tectonic stresses being built up, then the fault can't cause an earthquake, and it's good. But if there are tectonic stresses being built up, then it's bad because it means that energy isn't being released at regular intervals. We just think it's inactive when it's really not, and it's going to cause a big doozy of an earthquake in the future.

      Since the fracking triggered an earthquake, clearly there were stresses in the "inactive" fault, and the fault was of the latter type and thus not truly inactive, and the fracking merely relieved the stress. Basically, if a fault line can be "reactivated", then it was never really an inactive fault line in the first place.

      There are some macro (continental-scale) arguments that can be made about plate movements and whether the overall rate at which the plates move (and thus build up stresses in the rocks) can be affected by deliberately relieving some of those stresses (e.g. fracking). And thus fracking could be bad because it increases the rate at which the plates move, and thus increase the rate at which stress builds up and earthquakes happen. But on the local level, the basic jist of the argument that fracking merely triggers earthquakes which were going to eventually happen anyway is correct. Anybody who understands high school level physics can see that.

    2. Re:what if by steelfood · · Score: 3, Informative

      You forgot one thing though. The stresses could have been otherwise relieved along active fault lines. Tectonic stress isn't a point stress. It's not like a volcano that blows when enough stress builds up under it. There's no local buildup that then eventually causes an earthquake after long enough. It's more like a circuit, a whole system where stress is electricity that takes the path of least resistance. How large the system is depends on the geology of the particular area. Irrespective, the system absorbs the stress as a whole; stress propogates through the entire system, and the point of release is the weakest location in that system. If it's easier to release at an active fault (which it usually is), then it would be released there. Maybe in the active fault, it would be released there after a longer period of buildup, and/or it might be released over a larger area.

      But now, all of a sudden, they opened up inactive faults. Inactive faults happen for multiple reasons some of which you've stated. If the inactive fault is inactive despite stresses building up under it, that means it stopped being the weakest point. If fracking is activating it, it means fracking is causing a strong configuration to turn into a weak one. It is weakening what's holding the fault in place. And in addition, the reactivated fault line causes all sorts of other unpredictable behavior in the area. Related fault lines that were once thought to be dormant could suddenly become active. Unrelated fault lines that were just strong enough not to be the weak point could suddenly become just weak enough to become the weak point. Fault lines we didn't know about previously could suddenly appear. Hell, this could trigger (however unlikely), an eventual plate split like what's happening in East Africa.

      All this in and of itself isn't bad, at least not on human timescales. Continental earthquakes do happen, and they are usually fairly weak. But it does mean the location of where big earthquakes will happen become less predictable. And that's where the problem lies. Most of Cali is built to withstand upwards of a certain magnitude, say 6.0 (as an example; I'm pulling the number out of my ass). It's expected that Cali will be hit with a 6.0 periodically. People prepare for that sort of thing. Most of the midwest (or Ohio in this case) is not built to withstand a 6.0. It's not expected to experience a 6.0 earthquake. By reactivating an inactive fault line (via weakening), now Ohio or maybe some other part of the midwest can expect a 6.0 earthquake. Why? Because as you say, while that reactivated fault line is moving, it's great. But when it suddenly stops again, and for a long time, then the pressure begins to build. And since the previously inactive fault is now the weakest point in the system, that could very well be where the built-up pressure will be released, this time not so gently..

      That's the cost of reactivating inactive fault lines.

      --
      "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
  3. But ... but ... gas is below 2 bucks man! by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Why blame government officials? Gas is below 2 bucks a gallon. A significant majority of the Americans would support fracking even if you prove fracking is adding carcinogens in their cereal and in the baby formula. They would think it is a price worth paying to get gas below 2$. You and I might disagree. But we would be in the minority.

    We seem to have done a piss poor job of explaining the benefits of clean air and clean water to our fellow citizens.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    1. Re:But ... but ... gas is below 2 bucks man! by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The middle east producers are most certainly NOT dropping prices.

      The prices are dropping because there's a lot of it around, and because whatever vagaries in the market say the price goes down.

      What the middle east producers are doing is refusing to cut outputs in the face of dropping prices, because they have tons of cash and don't care if it puts American producers out of business.

      OPEC doesn't set the price, just output levels.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    2. Re:But ... but ... gas is below 2 bucks man! by HornWumpus · · Score: 2

      No. They've done this (pump like crazy and drive the price down) every time prices got high. Classic price squeeze to protect a market.

      This time it won't work.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    3. Re:But ... but ... gas is below 2 bucks man! by Righ · · Score: 2

      Somewhat. The Saudis want to undermine Iran as they sponsor actions that counter Saudi interests and even moderately cheap oil hurts Iran. The Saudis have been diplomatically coaxed not to punish Iran in this way (maintaining production levels higher than the market needs) in recent years because the US needs expensive oil to generate investment in local energy businesses. However, the US imperative for local energy jobs has been offset by the need to punish Russia and so they have lessened the overture for restraint to Saudi Arabia for the time being.

    4. Re:But ... but ... gas is below 2 bucks man! by Gavagai80 · · Score: 2

      The Saudis couldn't care less about Russia, they just want to destroy Iran's economy. Iran is their neighbor and biggest rival / enemy by far, and is vulnerable due to sanctions and an oil-dependent economy.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
  4. Fracking doesn't PUT stress on faults by PeterM+from+Berkeley · · Score: 2

    At worst, it can release stress that is already there. So they can "cause" an earthquake. But it's the big motions of the ground that we have no influence over that really puts stress in the ground.

    Isn't it true that stress that builds up over time would get released anyway, SOMETIME? (Unless the forces that caused the stress in the first place reversed so as to release it....)

    I mean, the release of chemicals, water pollution and consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions are all reasonable charges to make against fracking, but as far as earthquakes, weren't they inevitable anyway?

    Also, wouldn't triggering an earthquake cause a quake of less magnitude than would occur if allowed to build up and release naturally?

    --PeterM

    1. Re:Fracking doesn't PUT stress on faults by Cardoor · · Score: 2

      it also depends on what your definition of 'is' is.

  5. Re:"Don't install a basement" by Em+Adespoton · · Score: 5, Funny

    I told the Precambrian family not to install a basement. But did they listen? Noooooo.

    Well then... this is obviously their fault.

  6. Re:Less chance of dangerous quake now by Em+Adespoton · · Score: 4, Informative

    Don't the mini quakes release energy from the faults more safely?

    mini quakes along active fault lines release pent-up energy that protects against "the big one" -- but a dormant fault is like a healed over fracture in your bone -- if nothing disturbs it, it will continue to heal over. Now that it is active again, this will cause a chain reaction of stresses that will likely have continental and possibly global consequences, as it changes the way the other faults interact with each other.

    Basically, it made all the related fracture lines that much less predictable.

  7. Given the price of oil has now fallen... by evilandi · · Score: 2

    Given that the price of oil is now around threepence ha'penny a barrel, isn't this all rather academic? Surely fracking is no longer economically viable?

    --
    Andrew Oakley - www.aoakley.com
  8. Has this something to do with dropping oil prices? by KruiserX · · Score: 2

    Funny how convenient the timing is. This from a society where ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company ( http://www.seismosoc.org/insid... ) is a corporate member. Not that I endorse fracking, but my internal conspiracy theorist is making loud noises in my head.

  9. The worst that could happen by Mr_Blank · · Score: 2

    Break up solid rocks deep in the ground, suck out the oil, and then fill the hole with a water slurry. What could go wrong?

  10. Re:But ... but ... but by Anna+Merikin · · Score: 2

    OPEC doesn't set the price, just output levels.

    I was under the impression there is a relationship between supply and demand; now you say maintaining supply in the face of falling demand has no effect on price?

    Or are you simply playing with words? "Set the price" being a function of "set the supply," I think even that argument fails.

  11. Well it has bee nice knowing you guys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    because as soon as fracking triggers the yellowstone caldera we are all done.

  12. Re:But ... but ... but by gstoddart · · Score: 3, Informative

    was under the impression there is a relationship between supply and demand

    There's a relationship, but like all commodities it's more complicated than that. But the futures markets and all sorts of stuff completely unrelated to supply and demand also are huge factors.

    It is long past the point where these things happen in isolation.

    I seriously doubt even this comes close to explaining it:

    The oil price is partly determined by actual supply and demand, and partly by expectation. Demand for energy is closely related to economic activity. It also spikes in the winter in the northern hemisphere, and during summers in countries which use air conditioning. Supply can be affected by weather (which prevents tankers loading) and by geopolitical upsets. If producers think the price is staying high, they invest, which after a lag boosts supply. Similarly, low prices lead to an investment drought. OPEC's decisions shape expectations: if it curbs supply sharply, it can send prices spiking. Saudi Arabia produces nearly 10m barrels a day--a third of the OPEC total.

    Four things are now affecting the picture. Demand is low because of weak economic activity, increased efficiency, and a growing switch away from oil to other fuels. Second, turmoil in Iraq and Libya--two big oil producers with nearly 4m barrels a day combined--has not affected their output. The market is more sanguine about geopolitical risk. Thirdly, America has become the worldâ(TM)s largest oil producer. Though it does not export crude oil, it now imports much less, creating a lot of spare supply. Finally, the Saudis and their Gulf allies have decided not to sacrifice their own market share to restore the price. They could curb production sharply, but the main benefits would go to countries they detest such as Iran and Russia. Saudi Arabia can tolerate lower oil prices quite easily. It has $900 billion in reserves. Its own oil costs very little (around $5-6 per barrel) to get out of the ground.

    I'm not playing with words at all. I'm saying that modern economics is FAR more complex than "when demand goes up price goes up". Modern economics is full of vagaries, speculation, collusion, and other bullshit.

    Despite claims to the contrary, economists don't know much more about how the economy works than you or I ... because economics is at least 50% ideology.

    You look for, and see, the outcomes you believe in.

    What economics is not, is an objective natural law. It's a series of observations which may or may not extend as far as people who use it claims, and whose premises may or may not be reliable.

    Economics is NOT a real science. There's a lot more voodoo in it that people admit.

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  13. Re:Known costs vs. unknown costs by SydShamino · · Score: 2

    Physics is almost 14 billion years old, but parts of it are still unknown. Just because we've been doing something for 100 years doesn't mean we understand it completely.

    --
    It doesn't hurt to be nice.
  14. Re:After the other subsidies. by tlambert · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The Iraq war was basically a subsidy for the oil and gas industry. No, you don't get to phrase the argument so that only your position can win by claiming it has to be a direct subsidy, while indirect don't count.

    No, it wasn't.

    The Iraq war was basically to prevent Iraq setting up a Euro-baed petroleum exchange, thereby undermining the commodity-baed dollar and turning it back into a fiat currency, which would have been disastrous to the U.S., since the price of the dollar is pinned to the price of oil by the fact that almost all oil sales of any note are done in dollars.

    It was also a bailout for Europe, which gets most of their oil from the Middle East. What oil the U.S. gets from the Middle East does not end up shipped to the U.S., it's used by the U.S. military overseas, which, given active operations, consumes bout 24% of the total of all U.S. petroleum consumption. The U.S. gets almost all its oil from local or hemisphere local sources.

    The variability in U.S. pump prices has everything to do with the futures market, and self-restraint on refining by the petroleum companies in order to control the supply of refined oil, and almost nothing to do with the availability of top sweet crude.

    It's about economics, not resources.

  15. Be careful... by Fortraniac · · Score: 2

    It sounds like these seismologists are relying almost entirely on template matching, which is nothing more than a pattern recognition algorithm. These kinds of algorithms are no substitute for intelligent analysis, especially in the absence of reliable statistics. They can be used and abused like any other engineering tool if they aren't properly understood.

  16. Maybe the Seismological society didn't know... by yodleboy · · Score: 2

    Maybe the Seismological society didn't know about it, but I find it hard to believe that the drilling company didn't. Wife works as exec assistant to head geologist at an oil/gas company. They spend hours pouring over seismic data, logs, 3d maps etc of the underground structure before anything else ever happens. And this is at a small company (100-200 emp). I'd love to see the data the company in Ohio has and if this unknown fault is clearly seen in it.

  17. Re:Scientists are government officials too by Layzej · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Citing "Australia right now" in support of "Global Warming" (also known as "Climate Change") is ridiculous

    Maybe, unless you have insight into the trends and Australia Now is consistent with those trends. Extremes that would have happened about 2% of the time in the 30 years prior to the 80's were happening about 6% of the time in the 30 years prior to 2010. In the last 15 years they have occurred about 10% of the time: http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of... . This trend of increasing extremes is what we would expect in a warming country: http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of...

    The picture becomes even more cohesive if you look at the temperature trend in the context of radiative physics and what we know about the atmospheric CO2 trend.

  18. Re:After the other subsidies. by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

    I dont consider allowing people to keep their own money, giving them money. only in "we need more money!!!" politics does that count

    I don't consider allowing people to shit on our environment permissible. It's not their money, it's our money. They are legal fictions and without government protection someone would come along and stop them from doing what they are doing, by force if necessary. This is one of the things Carlin really had nailed down. The rich have all of the money and pay none of the taxes, at least per centum. The middle class has almost none of the money, and pays all of the taxes. The poor are just kept around to scare the middle class. That's why income taxes are slavery when corporations write the laws, which is the situation we have here today. But corporate taxes, they are completely necessary. Who should pay for the system? The greatest beneficiaries. And the corporations (and those who profit from them) are that. They're the slave-takers and slave-keepers, both.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"