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AMD, Nvidia Reportedly Tripped Up On Process Shrinks

itwbennett writes: In the fierce battle between CPU and GPU vendors, it's not just about speeds and feeds but also about process shrinks. Both Nvidia and AMD have had their move to 16nm and 20nm designs, respectively, hampered by the limited capacity of both nodes at manufacturer TSMC, according to the enthusiast site WCCFTech.com. While AMD's CPUs are produced by GlobalFoundaries, its GPUs are made at TSMC, as are Nvidia's chips. The problem is that TSMC only has so much capacity and Apple and Samsung have sucked up all that capacity. The only other manufacturer with 14nm capacity is Intel and there's no way Intel will sell them some capacity.

166 of 230 comments (clear)

  1. I got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Build your own fab

    1. Re:I got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      ain't nobody got time for that!

    2. Re:I got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Still have to remember that AMD is a fabless company.

    3. Re:I got an idea by Luckyo · · Score: 4, Informative

      And get owned by intel's illegal monopolistic deals with OEMs?

      Been there, done that. Signed: AMD.

    4. Re:I got an idea by alexander_686 · · Score: 2

      Maybe yes, maybe no.

      Fabs are incredibly capital intensive. If you build one you sort of need to run it at full hilt to make money off of them. And then you are on the tread mill of always having to build another one to have the latest and greatest.

      I am not saying they should not build it, just that it is a completely different beast then design and marketing of their chips. You can't do it half way. FYI, almost everybody agrees that the reason why the x386 dominates today is not because Intel had the best or most efficient designs for microchips but that it had the best run and most efficient fabs. Intel has publicly said it want to be the "McDonalds" on the CPU world – standardized and cheap.

      Are AMD and Navida ready to bit off such a big chuck? I doubt it.

    5. Re:I got an idea by ArhcAngel · · Score: 1

      Dear OEM X,
      We are intrigued by your new technology Y. We have begun production of our own version we copied straight from your designs and need you to sign the attached licensing agreement giving us complete autonomy to use your patents as we see fit. We very much enjoy our relationship and would hate to see OEM X lose its ability to purchase our chips at base rate and be forced to seek them from 3rd party suppliers.

      Sincerely, Intel

      --
      "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." - K
    6. Re:I got an idea by erice · · Score: 2

      Build your own fab

      While not a bad idea, it doesn't solve the problem. When you have your own fab, you are pretty much obligated to use it. Even when it is late, low on capacity, or a full node behind. You can reduce this risk by throwing a lot of money at R&D and spare capacity. However, this is more than a little bit expensive. That is why AMD doesn't have a captive fab anymore. They can't afford it.

      TSMC is in the business of making chips. They don't make money if they can't make chips. I haven't heard that Apple or Samsung have an unexpected block buster products at 14nm. That means that either TSMC grossly underestimated demand at 14/16nm/20nm (not likely) or they are having manufacturing problems that are slowing production. If it were just TSMC screwing up, you would bet UMC other fabs would exploiting this opportunity to steal business. Since this isn't happening, it is good bet that a hypothetical AMD or Nvidia fab would have the same production trouble.

    7. Re:I got an idea by itzly · · Score: 1

      It's both things. The x86 is a good design, and the intel fabs are good.

    8. Re:I got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Build your own fab

      AMD did exactly that. Intel responded by raising their prices and offering "discounts" to vendors in exchange for refusing to stock any AMD products, ensuring that AMD's production capacity was wasted because customers found it incredibly difficult to find anyone willing sell them (despite having a large performance, price and temperature advantage over Intel at the time). AMD took Intel to court over this and won, but Intel managed to drag the case out so ridiculously long that AMD weren't able to keep their foundries. Their R&D took a big hit too.

    9. Re:I got an idea by alexander_686 · · Score: 5, Informative

      I read an interview of John Sculley, ex Apple CEO, 10 years after he left Apple. (There is a link to it somewhere here on Slashdot. ) He said that one of his great mistakes was to choose Motorola's PowerPC RISC chip over Intel's x386 design. All of Apple engineers pulled for the Motorola chip, pointing to its better architecture. And it was true, for a given bit of silicon Motorola was better than Intel.

      Except that Intel's fabs were so much more efficient than Motorola's, they were able to deliver more powerful chips at a cheaper price even with poorer design. Which allowed them to make fat profits, which they plowed back into newer fab plants, which let them sprint past Motorola.

    10. Re:I got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      What u talkin about Willis? They are fab-ulous!

    11. Re:I got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That's long-term thinking that doesn't serve the share holders and we will have NONE of that around here!!

    12. Re:I got an idea by unixisc · · Score: 4, Informative

      Maybe yes, maybe no.

      Fabs are incredibly capital intensive. If you build one you sort of need to run it at full hilt to make money off of them. And then you are on the tread mill of always having to build another one to have the latest and greatest.

      I am not saying they should not build it, just that it is a completely different beast then design and marketing of their chips. You can't do it half way. FYI, almost everybody agrees that the reason why the x386 dominates today is not because Intel had the best or most efficient designs for microchips but that it had the best run and most efficient fabs. Intel has publicly said it want to be the "McDonalds" on the CPU world – standardized and cheap.

      Are AMD and Navida ready to bit off such a big chuck? I doubt it.

      Fully agree w/ this - it costs a ton of cash to just build the fab, then quite some time before they are in full production, and only after they've run for a few years and been depreciated that their products are profitable. By then, it's usually time to shrink, but by now, at ~15nm, there ain't too much scope for that.

      But in addition to that, the costs of running a fab are recurring - even if there is no demand for a product, the fab has to be kept running, thereby piling on inventory. Which is a good reason why a lot of companies either started of as, or later became, fabless. The only one who is profitable is Intel, as a result of being a full 2 generations ahead of the competition. Reason? Because they make volumes of products that they can sell in the market profitably, thereby enabling themselves to put in a whole ton of cash into newer fabs, better equipment and everything else geared towards process improvements.

    13. Re:I got an idea by unixisc · · Score: 1

      Wasn't it Gil Amelio who made that comment? But at the time, Intel was at par w/ PowerPC, and slower than other CPUs, like PA-RISC and Alpha. What made Intel catch up w/ RISC CPUs was Microsoft using the NT kernel to replace the Windows 9x kernel, and as a result, having an SMP capable mainstream OS. So now Intel could toss more cores into it to catch up w/ competing silicon, and because Intel's processes too were so much ahead of everyone else, those Core CPUs were still cheaper than PA-RISCs, Alpha's and SPARCs.

      The other problem that Apple had was that b'cos their platform strategy was still in shambles - it was long before OS-X was up and running, they didn't have much demand in the market, and as a result, didn't have the volumes that might have helped Motorola/Freescale be competent w/ Intel.

    14. Re:I got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It had a lot less to do with the fabs than with the fact that neither Motorola nor IBM were interested in a full-on performance competition with Intel or AMD. IBM considered the PowerPC as a gateway drug to their larger POWER architecture mainframes, and didn't really want to push it much past the 620. Motorola just wanted to make high-speed communication processors, so once it was fast enough for gigabit switches they stopped caring and stuck with the 4xx series. Apple was spending all its time cajoling them to make better processors, and it just wasn't happening, despite the fact that the PPC beat the x86 on several metrics because it wasn't saddled with a complex CISC-to-microcode converter that took 1/4 of the core's transistors. Meanwhile Intel and AMD were charging on ahead with higher speeds and, later, multicore chips of their own.

      And IMHO Apple was never in a technical position to transition from 68k to x86. It would have been a lot harder to get the 68k emulator up to speed because the x86 architecture was vastly different from 68k, more than PPC was. And then there's the whole issue of little-endian vs. big-endian, which was far easier to manage once Apple had transitioned to Mac OS X and XCode than before when the primary developer tools were made by third parties such as Metrowerks. Prior to Mac OS X, Apple's developer tools were expensive, huge, and very slow. And this is ignoring the reality that, if they moved to x86 and commodity chipsets, it would have been a lot easier for a cloning market to grow and strangle Apple's sales, like Power Computing almost did.

      So as much as Sculley may have wanted to move to x86, it likely would have resulted in developers abandoning the platform and the end of Apple. The technology just wasn't there.

    15. Re:I got an idea by simm_s · · Score: 1

      Yes, what people do not understand is that Intel is primarily manufacturing company. Intel builds the fabs and R&D/demand fills them.

    16. Re:I got an idea by UnknownSoldier · · Score: 5, Funny

      AMD: They are fab-u-less!

      FTFY. :-)

    17. Re:I got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Try reading how Intel paid Dell billions in cash to not use AMD chips. Mike Dell actually wanted to go with AMD, but Intel's massive cash infusions proved too delicious to ignore.

    18. Re:I got an idea by Trongy · · Score: 5, Informative

      AMD did not own the sever space. With the introduction of AMD64, they had superior CPUs. However, thanks to intel's illegal monopolistic deals with OEMs they didn't get the sales and profits to plough back into R&D and sustain their technical lead.

    19. Re:I got an idea by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      There's some sort of analogous law for fab price similar to Moore's law. I think its like each new process fab, which you have to build every ~18 months, costs like twice as much as the previous generation.

    20. Re:I got an idea by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      Motorola also sold a lot less chips so they could not invest nearly as much on fab technology as Intel did. You can thank that to Apple's exorbitant prices back then.

      If Motorola chips were that expensive they wouldn't sell as much as they did for things like automotive and washing machines and crap like that.

    21. Re:I got an idea by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      The article seems kinda bogus. Samsung uses their own fabs. AFAIK the capacity at TSMC is being used by Qualcomm (which does sell some Krait chips to Samsung) and Apple. Yes AMD (ex-ATI) and NVIDIA seem to have been left in the cold with this. It might push some of them to Globalfoundries if they can play their cards right. AMD at least has people with experience with their production process.

    22. Re:I got an idea by alexander_686 · · Score: 2

      Sculley said it was his mistake - which is not saying that Amelio didn't say it as well. Here is the old Slashdot link.

      http://apple.slashdot.org/stor...

    23. Re:I got an idea by Kjella · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well that too but there's a long feedback loop from profits to production capacity, building a new process facility typically takes 3-4 years. AMD held the lead from mid 1999 (launch of Athlon) to early 2006 (launch of Intel Core). First they had to make some money on that achievement, this still being the dotcom days the stock flew through the roof until the dotcom bubble burst in early 2000. Everything tech-related came crashing down, you could buy AMD stock in 2002 for less than in 1999 despite their excellent products at the time. AMD probably had a helluva time finding funding to expand.

      So if you don't get serious ramp-up capital until 2002, well you're not going to get it online until 2005-2006 and if you look at the stock charts then January 2006 is when they peaked. All looked bright, AMD still had the best product and finally the production capacity to knock Intel out of the driver's seat. Then Intel Core gave them a real kick to the nuts. They just couldn't sell as much as they had planned for, the financial burden from the fabs was dragging the whole company down. That's the trouble with betting too much on growth, when you fail you fail hard. But then everyone had been shouting build more, take down Intel. Hindsight is easy.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    24. Re:I got an idea by jrumney · · Score: 1

      By the time they got to multi-core, Intel had moved to a RISC architecture internally anyway.

    25. Re:I got an idea by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      No it isn't. There's a reason that AMD spun off their fab business. Fabs are insanely expensive and AMD doesn't have the volumes needed to justify a cutting edge fab by themselves. Having a fab running at anything below full production capacity is just throwing money away, but no one wants to buy capacity on an AMD fab because they know that when yields are low AMD chips will get priority. They'll buy capacity in a GlobalFoundaries or TMSC fab, because then they're just one customer in many.

      The real question is why Intel won't fab the chips. Their commercial advantage has always been in production techniques, not in chip design. Throughout the lifetime of x86, other people have been able to compete with Intel designs, in spite of being one or two generations behind in process tech.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    26. Re:I got an idea by Agripa · · Score: 1

      Like the other commenters said, AMD never had the lead in monopolistic behavior. The billions Intel spend to keep Dell and Gateway and others from using AMD processors was cheaper then the development and manufacturing costs to do the same.

      The only thing AMD managed to accomplish was sinking Itanic as a replacement for X86.

    27. Re:I got an idea by Agripa · · Score: 1

      During the same time period I tried to avoid Motorola's products because they had poor availability. Anything they produced which did not have another source was on allocation.

    28. Re:I got an idea by Agripa · · Score: 1

      Motorola did this with other lower profile products as well. Their availability was always questionable.

    29. Re:I got an idea by Agripa · · Score: 1

      The real question is why Intel won't fab the chips.

      Intel does fab other company's chips now but they are hardly going to do so for companies which directly compete with them.

  2. Consumers tripped up on exclusive deals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    Who cares about the designs when my AMD GPU doesn't run software properly because Nvidia has a special deal with that software company? And visa-versa? Stop worrying about design and fix the real problem...your current products are unreliable because of greed.

    1. Re:Consumers tripped up on exclusive deals by Pubstar · · Score: 1

      Someone doesn't know about Nvidia GameWorks, apparently.

  3. Is that why... by moondo · · Score: 2

    So, this is why we can't have nice things?

    1. Re:Is that why... by RLiegh · · Score: 1

      Yes. Exactly.

  4. bean counters ruin another company by banbeans · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Who didn't see not having their own fabs was going to bite them in the rear?
    Only a bunch of bean counters would not have seen this coming.

    1. Re:bean counters ruin another company by TWX · · Score: 2

      It's a lot simpler to sit down at a CAD workstation to do layout design than it is to manufacture that design.

      Trouble is, at the rate we're going, the manufacturers won't need us for very much longer, especially if economies in other countries that don't respect IP become strong enough that those manufacturers can sell unlicenced production there, even if they can't sell it here. I'm thinking of that happy little picture of the world with a circle over portions of South and East Asia and the large islands in the Indian Ocean where half of the population of the planet lives.

      We don't need to manufacture everything domestically, but we need to be capable of manufacturing everything domestically, even if we outsource a lot of it. Being capable is not simply a technical matter, it's also an economic one in that if it becomes too expensive to start up production if a foreign source is lost to us, then we effectively can't produce the thing anymore.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    2. Re:bean counters ruin another company by gstoddart · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Pretty much this.

      The people who own that fabrication capacity are selling it to the highest bidder. Or the one who invested the money to build it.

      If you don't control your own production, don't be surprised when you have to wait in line.

      But don't act all shocked that the 3rd party who actually builds your products can't guarantee your stuff gets built.

      This gets a big "duh".

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    3. Re:bean counters ruin another company by DarkOx · · Score: 3

      How are they bitten exactly. Neither one of them can get chips. There is therefore no real competitive disadvantage. They only way I see them getting bitten is if Intel decides they really want a slice of the high end GPU market; ups their game on the design side AND allocates their 14nm facilities to GPUs in favor of cranking out more CPUs.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    4. Re:bean counters ruin another company by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Funny

      How are they bitten exactly. Neither one of them can get chips.

      Well, then it's a good thing there's only two of them.

      A third company who owned some fabrication facilities would completely screw things up.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    5. Re:bean counters ruin another company by Bengie · · Score: 2

      AMD sold off their fab some time around 2009.

    6. Re:bean counters ruin another company by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      Does anyone know how good, bad, or awful Intel's GPUs are these days? I know that the performance of the GPUs they bother to sell is poor, that much is obvious; but GPU components parallelize nicely: pretty much all market segmentation for AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel (for a given generation of design) is a matter of how many of that manufacturer's GPU-sub-element you get. The most expensive one gets as many as the largest die will hold, the next most expensive gets the same die but with 25% or whatever disabled, and so on.

      Are Intel's relatively tepid performance numbers just because their GPUs are relatively small(and have access only to a slice of DDR3 stolen from main memory, not fast dedicated GDDR5), and thus likely solvable in short order if they were to build larger ones; or are their designs themselves relatively tepid, and even allocating similarly generous die space and RAM would still be pretty pitiful?

    7. Re:bean counters ruin another company by itzly · · Score: 1

      It does you little good to keep a fab, if you're not able to compete with intel on the process shrink rate.

    8. Re:bean counters ruin another company by DarkOx · · Score: 2

      Well, then it's a good thing there's only two of them.

      I think the bean counters might deserve some credit though. Don't you think somebody asked "what happens to our business if things go wrong at TSMC?" and the answer was well our chief competition also uses them so there will probably be little impact to our market share, they won't be able to supply anyone with chips either.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    9. Re:bean counters ruin another company by bws111 · · Score: 1

      Yep. That is why no other companies use 'suppliers'. Oh, wait. EVERY company is dependant on its suppliers. Does Intel operate its own mines? Does it create all of the tools, etc in its fabs? No? The stupid bean counters at Intel!

    10. Re:bean counters ruin another company by ArmoredDragon · · Score: 1

      Does intel even make a discreet GPU? I thought they were all baked into their newer CPUs.

    11. Re:bean counters ruin another company by LessThanObvious · · Score: 1

      It may have something to do with ATI legacy manufacturing as much as AMD CPU legacy. If ATI didn't have their own fab maybe it wasn't doable for AMD to outlay cash to create one for GPU, not that legacy ATI tooling would be up to task for modern GPU fab anyway.

    12. Re:bean counters ruin another company by gstoddart · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      You attribute far more long-term thinking to the idiots who run companies than I do.

      And are you really saying that if I really wanted to destroy large US companies all I'd have to do is to bomb factories in China? Or sow dissent? Or cut off their electrical supply?

      Because that sounds like something out of a Bond film.

      Hell, build your own fabrication plant and then bomb the ones who build for your competitor; instant monopoly. :-P

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    13. Re:bean counters ruin another company by knightghost · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I really don't see that. Manufacturing in the USA typically runs Lean and often Cell based with process changes made in minutes. The people also tend to have a wider range of skills and experience. The states with unions pretty much don't do any more manufacturing.

      Outsourcing only works from 2 fundamentals - ignoring IP (theft) and currency manipulation.

    14. Re:bean counters ruin another company by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      They don't offer any GPUs not packaged with CPUs; but I'm working on the assumption that the same basic GPU block could be turned into a discrete GPU if Intel thought that it was worth doing.

    15. Re:bean counters ruin another company by bug1 · · Score: 1

      I'm thinking of that happy little picture of the world with a circle over portions of South and East Asia and the large islands in the Indian Ocean where half of the population of the planet lives.

      Madagascar ?

      I dont see the connection, maybe i need to research geographic sterotypes...

    16. Re:bean counters ruin another company by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      Simple gamers do not buy new cards until you can get new cards.
      No one buys new cards until there are new cards to buy...

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    17. Re:bean counters ruin another company by houstonbofh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Outsourcing only works from 2 fundamentals - ignoring IP (theft) and currency manipulation.

      You left out government regulation, taxes, and pollution controls.

    18. Re:bean counters ruin another company by tlhIngan · · Score: 2

      Who didn't see not having their own fabs was going to bite them in the rear?
      Only a bunch of bean counters would not have seen this coming.

      Fabs are expensive. As in, REALLY expensive. They cost $1B to build, and easily $10+B to equip (or more). So you're already in the hole many billions of dollars and you haven't produced anything yet.

      Oh, and there's a clock ticking away, because you're going to need to spend another $10+B to buy ALL NEW EQUIPMENT to handle the upcoming node shrink.

      The only way to do that is to have a fab running continuously churning out product, and to find uses for the older node equipment (which now has to be discounted some because people want to use the new shiny equipment).

      Fabs like TSMC however have been major innovators because it allowed fabless companies like NVidia, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and hundreds more to exist without having to make major capital investments in fabs but get the technology out there. Imagine you want to do a chip, and now you need to convince your investors that to make it, you need to spend $15+B. Versus a few million.

    19. Re:bean counters ruin another company by hendrips · · Score: 2

      Considering the astonishing rate that AMD was losing money on its fabs, and the fact that upgrading a single fab to a new process node would cost more than AMD's entire market capitalization, I'm going to have to side with the bean counters here.

      AMD coundn't even keep its production facilities running. How could they possibly have kept up with TSMC - the world's premier foundry operator?

    20. Re:bean counters ruin another company by bws111 · · Score: 1

      So Applied Materials is lying when it says:

      Applied Materials, Inc. has been recognized as one of 18 companies receiving Intel Corporation's Preferred Quality Supplier (PQS) award for their performance in 2013. Applied Materials demonstrated industry-leading commitment across all critical focus areas on which Intel suppliers are measured: quality, cost, availability, technology, customer service, labor and ethics systems, and environmental sustainability. Applied Materials is recognized for their significant contributions providing Intel with wafer fab capital equipment, mask capital equipment, fab automation software, and services, deemed essential to Intel's success.

      Because that kind of make is sound like Applied Materials equipment is 'essential to Intel's success'.

    21. Re:bean counters ruin another company by SydShamino · · Score: 2

      Also, exploiting cultural differences. You won't get many Americans willing to live and eat in a dorm attached to the manufacturing plant, 800 miles from family, so they really have no distractions but work. (And of course you mention regulation, but having those workers for 12 hour shifts, 6 days a week, for 50 weeks straight can't hurt the bottom line - just the workers.)

      --
      It doesn't hurt to be nice.
    22. Re:bean counters ruin another company by SydShamino · · Score: 1

      If NVidia build a fab, it would be great for them if/when their fab had cutting-edge processes and NVidia chips were the most profitable thing to run. But... what happens when their fab is out of date? NVidia chip designers would likely be forced to design for the NVidia fab anyway, and their hardware would fall behind. Or... what happens when their fab is updated? If they are one of the few on a new process, assuming they aren't sued by Intel for patent violations, should the NVidia fab lose out on potential revenue by building NVidia chips instead of more profitable Apple or Samsung chips?

      Basically, if you aren't big enough and so far ahead of everyone else to keep all your own equipment running (i.e. Intel), nor are you able to contract in work (i.e. TSMC, GlobalFoundries), you aren't going to be successful with your own fab any more. You're either holding back your design shop, or holding back your fab, and either way you're not making as much profit as your competitors, which means you can't invest as much into your design shop or your fab.

      --
      It doesn't hurt to be nice.
    23. Re:bean counters ruin another company by Guspaz · · Score: 1

      ATI never had their own fab. They were always fabless.

    24. Re:bean counters ruin another company by Guspaz · · Score: 2

      Intel's integrated GPUs are pretty decent these days. At this point, they tend to outperform lower end discrete nVidia/AMD GPUs of a similar generation. Intel's Iris Pro 5200 GPU, for example, performs slightly faster than an nVidia GeForce 640. Each generation has seen Intel's chips creep slightly higher up the nVidia/AMD product line: it's not long since they creeped past the x30 tier of nVidia GPUs.

    25. Re:bean counters ruin another company by dinfinity · · Score: 1

      Don't be silly. It's not as if GlobalFoundries is putting AMD at the back of the line.
      They just haven't been able to keep up with TSMC technologically (GF couldn't promise to deliver 20nm or 16nm when TSMC could), and they probably wouldn't have been able to if they were still a part of AMD.

      The only big difference is that it would have been a pretty hard sell to have your GPUs be produced by a third (technologically more advanced) party instead of in your own (struggling) fabs.

    26. Re:bean counters ruin another company by blackomegax · · Score: 1

      The Iris Pro is a competent gaming chip, but it only matches AMD's iGPU at best. And yes, DDR3 is a severe limitation. As are Intel GPU drivers. (garbage) But as silicon goes, they are actually good GPU tech and plow through OpenCL.

    27. Re:bean counters ruin another company by edxwelch · · Score: 1

      Ha ha. You really think owning a fab is advantagous?
      AMD did have it's own fab and the massive capital expenditure to keep that going nearly drove them to bankruptcy. Neither AMD nor Nvidia have the volumn to justify owning their own fab.
      The fabless model works just fine - you will note that Apple and Qualcomm, the companies getting first tabs on 14/16nm, are both fabless companies.

    28. Re:bean counters ruin another company by ArmoredDragon · · Score: 1

      I'll let somebody more experienced on it do the talking:

      http://theweek.com/article/ind...

      (And no, I'm not a fan of him, just I don't see any reason why he'd be wrong on this.)

    29. Re:bean counters ruin another company by edxwelch · · Score: 1

      Ha ha. You really think owning a fab is advantagous?
      AMD did have it's own fab and the massive capital expenditure to keep that going nearly drove them to bankruptcy. Neither AMD nor Nvidia have the volume to justify owning their own fab.
      The fabless model works just fine - you will note that Apple and Qualcomm, the companies getting first tabs on 14/16nm, are both fabless companies.

    30. Re:bean counters ruin another company by sjames · · Score: 1

      Point one can be addressed in negotiations. I'll bet a pay bump on days where a reconfiguration is required would get the job done. As for point 2, if there were jobs here calling for the skill, we would soon have workers with that skill available.

    31. Re:bean counters ruin another company by TehZorroness · · Score: 2

      I really don't see that. Manufacturing in the USA typically runs Lean and often Cell based with process changes made in minutes. The people also tend to have a wider range of skills and experience. The states with unions pretty much don't do any more manufacturing.

      I don't know if all shops work this way, but I work as a CNC lathe toolsetter and programmer in a non-union shop in New Jersey and what you say is pretty accurate based on my experience. Most of our operators will typically run a cell of 2 to 4 machines. As long as there are more contracts than we have machines (which is always, or we'd be out of business) we are constantly breaking down setups and retooling our machines for the next production run. We produce hundereds of different parts for some of our clients, and print revisions happen somewhat regularly. When we get a revised print, it usually only means we have to change a couple numbers in the g-code to define the new toolpath and tool the machine exactly how we did before the revision. While it may present an oppertunity to re-negotiate, It is hardly something we are willing to loose a contract over.

      Now, I'm sure making microprocessors is quite a bit more sophisticated, but I can imagine that the biggest difference between different model CPUs built on the same process would be the code controlling the machine (automagically generated by CAM software from a CAD model), and they can probably be switched without making significant physical changes to the machine itself. If I remember correctly, it can easily take a couple years of calibration before a fab can produce anything reliable consistantly. I imagine once those machines are set up, they probably spend most of their time worrying about an earthquake happening on the other side of the world, not about loading a new program onto it.

      - Chinese companies have the capability of rapidly adjusting manufacturing processes as a result of last minute design changes. While technically US companies have this ability, most companies just won't do it (in some cases labor unions are the biggest hindrance because they only permit their members to do one job and one job only, and instead of re-allocating existing labor, they're forced to hire new people, which just isn't economical or practical.)

      - Even though it is possible to find the required skill set in the US, often the workers you do find aren't as good at a particular task as some people who live overseas and do that kind of work all the time. For example, how many Americans do you know that are good at operating the machinery used for making textiles? Chances are, they're harder to find than in China, but if you really wanted to get it done here, you could, just you'll pay more, it'll take longer, and the craftsmanship probably won't be as good.

      I'd never trust any of this crap. All of these captains of industry complain about how few skilled workers we have here in the US - be it tech, manufacturing, whatever. All they really want is to pay as little for the labor as possible, and as long as it costs less in China, they will keep making up excuses and funding think-tanks to support their point of view. If they were trying to have their products manufactured with the best craftsmanship possible, by the most skilled workers they could employ, they wouldn't be outsourcing them to the cheapest place they could find. I'm not going to be that guy that says we do everything best in the US, but doing things best is not why we are outsourcing to China either.

    32. Re: bean counters ruin another company by EETech1 · · Score: 1

      Or... They worked so well some(TLA)body got them all, while Intel tweaked it into knights corner / knights landing / xeon phi, where they now use it to dominate the top 500.

    33. Re:bean counters ruin another company by Fwipp · · Score: 1

      You know that bombing factories is, like, illegal, right? And that most people have, you know, ethics?

    34. Re:bean counters ruin another company by Solandri · · Score: 2

      If you don't control your own production and aren't willing to pay more for it than anyone else, don't be surprised when you have to wait in line.

      FTFY. nVidia and AMD could easily jump ahead of Apple and Samsung in TSMC's queue - they just have to offer to pay more than Apple and Samsung are willing to pay. All that's happening is that they've made a conscious decision that it's more cost-effective to pay less and have their 16nm/20nm products come out later and deal with unhappy customers, than to pay more to make their customers happier.

    35. Re:bean counters ruin another company by Guspaz · · Score: 1

      Agreed, nothing wrong with that. But it was highly disappointing when they got bought out by a foreign company.

    36. Re: bean counters ruin another company by ihavnoid · · Score: 1

      Except that in this case they will be quickly out of business if they actually tried to build a fab, which is a 10 billion dollar investment which will go obsolete in 2~3 years.

      The fundamental problem is that there isn't enough demand for discrete GPUs, so they are getting a hard time hitting the economy of scale. What I see is that mobile chips are getting the latest and greatest process technologies these days - I believe the market size of mobile processors is order of magnitudes larger than discrete GPUs, so good luck outbidding them.

    37. Re:bean counters ruin another company by UnknownSoldier · · Score: 1

      This still applies. /Olbg. Intel Santa GPU
      http://www.dvhardware.net/news...

      Through it should be said ...

      "Debunking the 100X GPU vs. CPU Myth: An Evaluation of Throughput Computing on CPU and GPU"
      http://sbel.wisc.edu/Courses/M...

    38. Re:bean counters ruin another company by unixisc · · Score: 2
      The fabless model works fine provided 2 things happen:

      1. The customer (AMD/Nvidia/Apple/Qualcomm) are accurate in forecasting what they will need, and have a consistent demand at the fab, not varying horrendously, as many smaller players do

      2. The customer is not dwarfed by other bigger customers during times of allocation. When market demand is high and semiconductor prices go up, then fabs usually pick their top tier customers, have them allocate which products need to run uninterrupted, and do that. Smaller customers fall by the wayside.

      Chances are neither Apple nor Nvidia would face that predicament. I'm not so sure about AMD.

    39. Re:bean counters ruin another company by gstoddart · · Score: 1

      LOL, yes on both, and I wasn't advocating it ... I was comparing it to a Bond Movie because it sounds so damned crazy.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    40. Re:bean counters ruin another company by edxwelch · · Score: 1

      AMD have an agreement with globalfoundries, so it may not be as bad as you think

    41. Re:bean counters ruin another company by Agripa · · Score: 1

      Point one can be addressed in negotiations.

      Which is just another cost.

      if there were jobs here calling for the skill, we would soon have workers with that skill available.

      If there were jobs here calling for that skill at an appropriate wage and if the infrastructure existed to support that skill.

    42. Re:bean counters ruin another company by Agripa · · Score: 1

      They only way I see them getting bitten is if Intel decides they really want a slice of the high end GPU market; ups their game on the design side AND allocates their 14nm facilities to GPUs in favor of cranking out more CPUs.

      Intel does not need to worry about the high end GPU market which is discrete; increasing integration will eventually allow integrated GPUs to catch up to and outperform discrete GPUs at which point Intel will only be competing with AMD assuming that AMD still exists. Unless x86 is displaced by ARM, nVidia will not be a factor because they lack an x86 CPU so they have been diversifying away from the x86 GPU market.

    43. Re:bean counters ruin another company by sjames · · Score: 1

      Which is just another cost.

      So doing something extra costs extra? You don't say!

  5. Production by fxsoap · · Score: 1

    Interesting that they both use the same supplier for their critical component and are competing products....I'm guessing neither have enough money to build their own production labs like Apple did with that special glass they use. Imagine how amazing they would be as a joint company.

    1. Re:Production by slew · · Score: 2

      Interesting that they both use the same supplier for their critical component and are competing products....I'm guessing neither have enough money to build their own production labs like Apple did with that special glass they use.

      Apple didn't spend their own money on production of their "special" glass (it is purchased gorilla glass 4 from Dow Corning)...
      On that whole GT advanced technologies sapphilre disaster, they attempted to purchase their own production labs (and lease them back to GT for production), but apparently that ain't gonna happen now...

      Imagine how amazing they would be as a joint company.

      Actually Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm and Xilinx are major customers of TSMC's advanced processes and all are subject to the whims of the supply and demand for wafers at TSMC. It's just that Apple is a bigger and newer customer and generally customers in that position get preferential treatment to win their business. FWIW, at a capital cost of about $2B, I don't think Nvidia and AMD are going to get back into the fab biz any time soon. Then their is the whole poly silicon suppliers and wafer suppliers and Applied Materials steppers, etc, etc... Companies are all highly independent on specialized suppliers. This is not unsual in this business (or any other modern enterprise). Very few companies are totally vertically integrated these days...

    2. Re:Production by hendrips · · Score: 1

      Hah - $2B would be an optimistic number just for upgrading an existing fab. A brand new fab would be somewhere in the $5B to $10B range, judging by what Intel and TSMC are spending.

    3. Re:Production by alexander_686 · · Score: 1

      Apple didn't spend their own money on production of their "special" glass (it is purchased gorilla glass 4 from Dow Corning)...
      On that whole GT advanced technologies sapphilre disaster, they attempted to purchase their own production labs (and lease them back to GT for production), but apparently that ain't gonna happen now...

      That is not true. Apple has invested billions in Corning, Samsung, Foxconn, etc. You have only heard about GT because it blew up.

      It is not uncommon for a customer to help finance a vendor's factor. Why should a company (let's day Corning) build a huge, risky, cutting edge factory? It is a huge risk. Why should a company (let's say Apple) design a product around cutting edge technology that might not be available in mass quantities?

      So Apple pitches in cash to finance the new factory and in return they get preferred pricing / exclusive rights of the output for 6 to 12 months.

      As an example, Tesla's "Gigafactory" is actually a Panasonic factory.

    4. Re:Production by slew · · Score: 1

      That is not true. Apple has invested billions in Corning, Samsung, Foxconn, etc. You have only heard about GT because it blew up.

      Although I only have access to public information, AFAIK, it isn't Apple that invested in Corning, actually it is Samsung that invested in Corning (~7.4% stake which makes Samsung the largest single shareholder of Corning).

      Although in the past, Apple had made an investment in Samsung Semiconductor to ensure flat panel technology availability, I believe they no longer use Samsung flatpanels nor hold that investment.

      For their semiconductors, their relationship appears to be a foundry deal only. Samsung has made investments themselves on fab capacity based on being an Apple supplier. Of course as industry practice, Apple likely makes component pre-payments based on forecast demand on a discount basis (which gives Samsung funds to finance it), but that's not the same as an equity investment.

      On the other hand, Apple apparently has invested a few billion in Sharp as their new flat panel supplier. There is also a rumored multi-billion dollar Foxconn investment (for expanding iphone production capacity), but I can find no public evidence of a Corning investment.

      That's not to say that Apple and Corning don't collaborate very closely on gorilla glass production, but there doesn't appear to be this billion dollar investment in Corning that you are referring to.

    5. Re:Production by alexander_686 · · Score: 1

      Of course as industry practice, Apple likely makes component pre-payments based on forecast demand on a discount basis (which gives Samsung funds to finance it), but that's not the same as an equity investment.

      When I was talking about "investments" I was actually referring to this type of arrangement. Not all investments have to be equity. Some can be simple short term loans to finance inventory and production. That being said, some of the arrangements can be huge, complex, and multi-year and can get pretty near the line of equity. But if not the marriage of equity at the very least it is a very deep partnership of cohabitation. See GT as an example. Of course, the accountants make sure it never crosses the line into equity – that tends to open a can of worms - and often it must be publicly disclosed.

      As for Corning I was a bit lazy when I said that Apple invested billions in Corning – I don't know the exact amount or level of involvement. I do know that Apple did help Corning with cash in order to ramp up production in exchange for a limited time exclusive on the glass.

  6. Actually...about Intel... by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2

    I certainly wouldn't expect to see it happen(well, maybe with a very low probability); but it wouldn't surprise me if someone at Intel Legal has written up an "AMD/Foundry Contract Opinion.doc" and squirreled it away somewhere.

    Given that AMD isn't terribly threatening anymore, we aren't in the Netburst vs. A64 beatdown era now, Intel is probably saved a fair amount of unpleasant antitrust inquiry(US and abroad) by AMD at comparatively limited cost in product margins or lost design wins. If it came to it, selling them foundry services would probably be preferred to letting them die.

    1. Re:Actually...about Intel... by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 3, Insightful

      it wouldn't surprise me if someone at Intel Legal has written up an "AMD/Foundry Contract Opinion.doc" and squirreled it away somewhere.

      Or they can take advantage of the situation to acquire nVidia's market position in GPU computing and patent arsenal (to annihilate the trolls - probably not gunning for AMD). Intel wants a viable AMD, to keep DoJ off its back. nVidia is just a market competitor with a manufacturing problem.

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    2. Re:Actually...about Intel... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I doubt Intel would help AMD, maybe Nvidia. Look up history, AMD only exists as a company to do fab work for Intel designs originally. If Intel had enough fab ability in the 80s, AMD wouldn't exist today. This is the textbook definition of irony.

    3. Re:Actually...about Intel... by edxwelch · · Score: 1

      No, that's not it.
      Intel said that they will provide foundry services for any company willing to pay the price, no exceptions.
      The reason Intel is a non-option for AMD and Nvidia is, obviously, the price is too high.
      Intel are accustomed to enjoying a 65% margin and that's the way they want to keep it. Brian Krzanich publicly stated this at the Citi 2014 Global Technology Conference in so many words.

  7. Re:Didn't AMD used to have fabs? by Fwipp · · Score: 1

    Yes, they spun them off into Global Foundries.

  8. No... by YuppieScum · · Score: 5, Informative

    NVidia has always been fabless, but AMD owned its own fabrication plants until a few years ago... when they were spun off into a separate company called Global Foundries.

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  9. Goodbye AMD by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Your shortsighted business practice of selling off your foundry has just killed you. It's gonna suck having Intel as the monopoly for the X86 CPU market.

    1. Re:Goodbye AMD by serviscope_minor · · Score: 2

      Your shortsighted business practices of getting fucked over by Intel's almost completely unpunished illegal monopoly abuse has just killed you.

      FTFY.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    2. Re:Goodbye AMD by arbiter1 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      o please, intel has superior cpu, straight out. AMD hasn't had a decent cpu since athlon xp/64. Blaming intel for AMD failure to innovate their cpu is straight up retarded. Intel has the market share they do cause they have made cpu's people want, not slow power hungry piles of silicon.

    3. Re:Goodbye AMD by Carewolf · · Score: 1, Troll

      o please, intel has superior cpu, straight out. AMD hasn't had a decent cpu since athlon xp/64. Blaming intel for AMD failure to innovate their cpu is straight up retarded. Intel has the market share they do cause they have made cpu's people want, not slow power hungry piles of silicon.

      Go back to the time period we are talking about. The fabs were sold off in 2008 which was when AMD was still a top dog performance wise, but losing money due to Intel illegal deals with OEMs.

    4. Re:Goodbye AMD by unixisc · · Score: 1

      How? Since AMD came out w/ a 64-bit x86 that was endorsed by Microsoft, they had an advantage over Intel, and did a cross-licensing of their own 64-bit vs Intel's 32-bit instruction sets. Intel hardly had any advantage over AMD there.

      The advantage Intel had over EVERYONE - AMD, HP, DEC, IBM, Sun, MIPS, you name it - was fabs!!! They are 2 generations ahead of AMD, and were at least 1 generation ahead of everybody else. In case of HP, they used to fab their PA-RISC, before Itanic was out. AMD, being 2 generations behind on process shrinks, couldn't be expected to keep up w/ Intel, who could simply toss more cores at any problem, since every OS out there now is either NT-based or UNIX-based (meaning SVR4, BSD, Linux, everything). So that's what Intel did, and won this game.

      I am sad at not seeing AMD chips in MS Surface Pros and other toys, but that's not something that Intel illegally contrived at AMD's expense.

    5. Re:Goodbye AMD by serviscope_minor · · Score: 2

      I am sad at not seeing AMD chips in MS Surface Pros and other toys, but that's not something that Intel illegally contrived at AMD's expense.

      When the A64 came out it stomped all over the P4. Despite Intel's fab advantage, te A64 was faster, cooler and cheaper than the P4.

      At that point, Intel outright bribed Dell and other large vendors to NOT use AMD chips. That is flat out illegal and denied AMD a huge amount of revenue when they most needed it to capitalise on their advantage with intel.

      So despite having a big advantage in superior tech, Intel used illegal tactics to starve AMD of cash for as long as it took for intel to catch up.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    6. Re:Goodbye AMD by unixisc · · Score: 1

      The only company that had a policy of not buying AMD was Dell - everyone else at the time - Compaq, HP, even Gateway was okay w/ buying AMD. And at the time, AMD was catching up, while Intel was still obsessed about the Itanium and their desire to kill off the x86 architecture at 32-bit. It wasn't until a bit later that they too embraced the AMD path, when Microsoft made it clear to them that they wouldn't be supporting a separate 64-bit architecture different from what they had already done for AMD. The reason that AMD went on to fall flat on its face was that it never was good at maximizing yields even from their own fabs

    7. Re:Goodbye AMD by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      The only company that had a policy of not buying AMD was Dell - everyone else at the time - Compaq, HP, even Gateway was okay w/ buying AMD.

      No: Intel also bribed HP to cap AMD sales at 5% of the total. They bribed AMD as well. Intels bribery severely hapmered AMDs sales. Intel has had to pay out billions for this wrongdoing. However they may as well treat that as a successful investment since it completely stalled AMD when they were beating Intel.

      So, money well spent, if you have no ethics.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
  10. Re:capitals ? by bigdady92 · · Score: 1

    Because AMD is an abbreviation of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) therefore it's proper English to capitalize all the letters.

    You have a low enough user account number to know that.

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  11. no way??? by sribe · · Score: 2

    The only other manufacturer with 14nm capacity is Intel and there's no way Intel will sell them some capacity.

    Riiiight. Because Intel never ever sells fab capacity.

    Oh wait, they started doing that in 2010. Oops.

    1. Re:no way??? by drinkypoo · · Score: 5, Funny

      Riiiight. Because Intel never ever sells fab capacity.

      AMD going to Intel for fab capacity is like the Palestinians going to the Israelis for rocket technology.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:no way??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      >Palestinians going to the Israelis for rocket technology.
      they were selling weapons to Syrian rebels up until recently.

    3. Re:no way??? by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 1

      Riiiight. Because Intel never ever sells fab capacity.

      The sentence doesn't say that. It says it wouldn't sell AMD or Nvidia, the companies referred to by the "them" in that sentence, some of their capacity.

    4. Re:no way??? by unixisc · · Score: 1

      The only other manufacturer with 14nm capacity is Intel and there's no way Intel will sell them some capacity.

      Riiiight. Because Intel never ever sells fab capacity.

      Oh wait, they started doing that in 2010. Oops.

      Do they sell capacity in their most advanced process? I'd imagine that they sell capacity in their depreciated fabs w/ older processes. However, since Intel is so far ahead of others, even that is a major boost for customers (like Altera), and b'cos Intel has some of the best practices in handling fabs, they do know that they'll get quality there w/ it! But I wouldn't be surprised at Intel reserving its most advanced processes for things like Xeons or i7s

    5. Re:no way??? by unixisc · · Score: 1

      Precisely this!!! When I worked in the semiconductor business, we had Samsung as a customer, and their flash memory division was our competitor. When we asked about why they preferred us, reason was what any other customer might give - we had a better cost effective solution. Intel's flash too was our competition, but when Intel made their i740 graphics cards back in the 90s, our flash was on their reference design as well. There is no reason for any company to be religious about not using a competitor's part if that provides them what they want. That is somewhat different from the Israeli-Pali analogy above, where Israel giving rockets to Hamas would inevitably result in Hamas firing those from Gaza into Sderot

    6. Re:no way??? by sribe · · Score: 1

      Do they sell capacity in their most advanced process?

      They have for prior nodes, though not at first when it's brand new.

      I'd imagine that they sell capacity in their depreciated fabs w/ older processes. However, since Intel is so far ahead of others, even that is a major boost for customers (like Altera), and b'cos Intel has some of the best practices in handling fabs, they do know that they'll get quality there w/ it! But I wouldn't be surprised at Intel reserving its most advanced processes for things like Xeons or i7s

      I've read that their announced goal for 14nm capacity will be more than all other fab capacity worldwide combined. If true, that seems to indicate aggressive expansion into selling capacity.

    7. Re:no way??? by bluegutang · · Score: 1

      If Israel sold rockets to the Palestinians, the rockets would be used against Israel and Israelis would die. You don't get your citizens killed for money.

      If Intel sold fab capacity to a competitor, it might hurt Intel's own CPU sales. But lost money can be made up for with other money. For the right price, why wouldn't Intel do this? Particularly as Intel has an interest in keeping companies like AMD alive to avoid antitrust action, while Intel is looking for customers for its custom foundry.

    8. Re:no way??? by unixisc · · Score: 1

      Abu Dhabi is a stakeholder in Global Foundries, not AMD per se

    9. Re:no way??? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      For the right price, why wouldn't Intel do this?

      AMD can't afford the right price. That much of a shrink would make them directly competitive, assuming their processor can be shrunk that much. However, just doing that would teach AMD a lot about Intel's process technology...

      Particularly as Intel has an interest in keeping companies like AMD alive to avoid antitrust action

      Alive, sure. Competitive? Nah.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  12. Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

    Just one. Nothing out of control. Intel has something like a dozen of them. Just build one. Then you have the ability to expand your own capacity using Intel's model of "EVERYTHING EXACTLY THE SAME" where in Intel copies their fabs exactly down to the furniture.

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    1. Re:Build your own fab by SuricouRaven · · Score: 2

      Fab facilities are tremendously expensive. This isn't something you can throw together in your basement. A fab is going to cost at least a billion dollars - and that's not even for state-of-the-art 14nm stuff. TMSC's fab cost ten billion dollars to build. That's just the construction cost - semiconductor tech is constantly changing, so if you want to make the latest goodies like high-performance GPUs there's also the need to constantly puchase new and better equipment.

    2. Re:Build your own fab by confused+one · · Score: 2

      AMD had fabs. They had several. The cost of operating them was a heavy burden on their bottom line; so, they spun them off in 2009 (that would be Global Foundries) and decided to go fabless. Now, they're experiencing the consequence of being dependent on 3rd parties to do their manufacturing for them. TSMC is building more fab capacity -- they just can't get it online fast enough (it takes several years to build and qualify one of these fabs)

    3. Re:Build your own fab by Existential+Wombat · · Score: 1

      Just get a 3D printer and make your own chips. Jeez, cheapskates.

    4. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Intel maintains many of them. AMD is perfectly capable of maintaining ONE.

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    5. Re:Build your own fab by hendrips · · Score: 4, Informative

      As of September 2014:

      -AMD's available cash: $950 million
      -AMD's market capitalization: $2.6 billion
      -AMD's credit rating: Absolute garbage
      -Cost of a new Intel/TSMC style fab: $7 billion - $10 billion

      It's a nice thought, but the reason that so many companies, including huge companies like Apple, IBM, and Qualcomm, have gone fabless is that fabs are astonishingly, mind-blowingly, expensive.

    6. Re:Build your own fab by brxndxn · · Score: 1

      No, it isn't. The entire market cap of AMD is less than the cost of building a new fab. Intel royally fucked AMD in 1999-2003 and AMD has been in a dismal financial position ever since. Intel does not play fair - and until Intel is forced to play fair, the best you can expect from AMD is for them to stay alive. Intel was forced to pay a fine that was about 5% of where AMD should have been financially.

      --
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    7. Re:Build your own fab by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 1

      With what money do you expect them to build a fab?

    8. Re:Build your own fab by SuricouRaven · · Score: 1

      The cost of upgrading a fab for process shrink is almost as much as building a new fab. They often don't get upgraded - they get downmarketed. A new fab is built for the process shrink, and the old fab is reduced to making lower-spec tech. All those little microcontrollers, glue chips, controllers and interfaces found in just about everything electronic may well come from the same fab that once churned out the state-of-the-art Pentium 3.

    9. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      That's fine. Have ONE fab. Don't sell literally every single one of them.

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    10. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      They're a multi billion dollar corporation that used to have their own fabs... not a collection of bag ladies.

      Give me a motherfucking break.

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    11. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      I'm not suggesting that they rely on a their own fab but rather keep it operational so they have some logistical flexibility.

      If global foundries are not giving them enough time in their fabs they can instead invest more in their own.

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    12. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Good game for amd then. Guess they should just stick a shot gun in their mouths and pull the trigger with a toe.

      Or man up and find a solution to the problem.

      What you are saying is that given the current status quo, AMD cannot climb out of this box. This I agree to and understand.

      However, the whole history of technological development as well as inter industrial gamesmanship is rife with examples of various companies leapfrogging the status quo by doing things differently.

      AMD already tried something by going with this fabless model. The problem with outsourcing however as we all know is that you lose control. Control is probably the most underrated feature period in the 21st century. Very few people seem to grasp how critical control is to the stability and sustainability of nearly any enterprise.

      You note that a big fab of the kind Intel builds costs too much for AMD to afford. Granted. Do something else. Possibly invest in a new fab with some other investors that likewise want more fab time. Or possibly consider alternative manufacturing models or systems.

      The alternative appears to be biting down on the barrel of the shotgun, closing their eyes, and spraying raspberry jam all over the walls.

      I find that option to be distasteful. So any other option should be considered.

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    13. Re:Build your own fab by Ash-Fox · · Score: 1

      I'm not suggesting that they rely on a their own fab but rather keep it operational so they have some logistical flexibility.

      AMD didn't even make enough money to keep one of their fabs, never mind keep it up to date...

      --
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    14. Re:Build your own fab by unixisc · · Score: 1

      Fab facilities are tremendously expensive. This isn't something you can throw together in your basement. A fab is going to cost at least a billion dollars - and that's not even for state-of-the-art 14nm stuff. TMSC's fab cost ten billion dollars to build. That's just the construction cost - semiconductor tech is constantly changing, so if you want to make the latest goodies like high-performance GPUs there's also the need to constantly puchase new and better equipment.

      Not just that, TSMC needed financing from the Taiwanese government to make those fabs. Intel is fortunate that they can afford it on their own

    15. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Fatalism is for losers.

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    16. Re:Build your own fab by Ash-Fox · · Score: 1

      Fatalism is for losers.

      So, you're saying it's better to be a dead company than a loser?

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    17. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      I'm saying that any company that is dependent on a single supplier, unable to innovate, and ultimately left bidding against wealthier companies for scrap time on increasingly leveraged production lines is fucked.

      So I am not saying that they kill themselves. I am saying that if they don't solve this problem they're already dead and just don't know it.

      And when you're in that position... possibly some risk taking is warranted.

      I repeat... fatalism is for losers. If you're between a rock and a hard place, then you can either sit there like a bug and get crushed. Or you can find a way out of that situation. Telling me it is hard etc is what losers say. They get crushed. You get out of that bind or die.

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    18. Re:Build your own fab by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 1

      The cost of building and equipping a fab is more than AMD's entire yearly revenue. They don't have the cash or credit to take on such a huge debt.

    19. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Then they can't do it the way you are thinking about it.

      But if they don't do something then they are in a very bad position.

      I am not saying they have to do it the way YOU imagine that anyone must do it. Consider that there might be other ways. And really, that is an issue that could take a lot of time on the part of people that know a lot more then either of us to figure out.

      Regardless, the point is that if they do not obtain some leverage they're fucked.

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    20. Re:Build your own fab by Ash-Fox · · Score: 1

      I'm saying that any company that is dependent on a single supplier, unable to innovate, and ultimately left bidding against wealthier companies for scrap time on increasingly leveraged production lines is fucked.

      You seem confused. AMD's primary income is from selling research, not producing processors.

      I am saying that if they don't solve this problem they're already dead and just don't know it.

      They've always had the option to leave the microprocessor market entirely.

      And when you're in that position... possibly some risk taking is warranted.

      Except this still isn't their primary income, it is secondary.

      I repeat... fatalism is for losers.

      I repeat my question, because it really sounds like you're saying this. You're saying it;'s better to be dead than a loser?

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    21. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      It doesn't matter if they have other businesses. Their role in that market requires that they have the ability to produce products. If their lack of control over their supply chain is making their future in that market questionable then they need to make a choice.

      And note... not making a choice is also a choice.

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    22. Re:Build your own fab by Ash-Fox · · Score: 1

      It doesn't matter if they have other businesses

      Sure it does, because this is how you assess risk and determine where to focus your business.

      Their role in that market requires that they have the ability to produce products.

      Or exploit it for other purposes, such as selling off research, as they have done numerous times.

      If their lack of control over their supply chain is making their future in that market questionable then they need to make a choice.

      Tech markets tend to have a lot of various issues continuously which is reflected price changes. I remember other significant problems like when Taiwan got hit by a natural disaster and many harddrive companies were unable to produce harddrives in quantities desired due to component demands. This isn't really a different situation or something new.

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    23. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Except even in your example that situation was not accepted or shrugged off. The industry has taken steps to decentralize the production of storage media as a result.

      I am not suggesting that companies shouldn't run into problems or that problems are not normal.

      Rather, I am saying that when companies run into serious problems they need to be taken seriously and addressed in a manner that they no longer pose a strategic risk to their position.

      AMD clearly needs more leverage in the supply chain. How they get that is their business. But meekly waiting in line is for suckers.

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    24. Re:Build your own fab by Ash-Fox · · Score: 1

      Except even in your example that situation was not accepted or shrugged off.

      AMD didn't shrug off their problems, they changed their firm to mitigate the risk.

      Rather, I am saying that when companies run into serious problems they need to be taken seriously and addressed in a manner that they no longer pose a strategic risk to their position.

      AMD's position in my opinion is 2nd best against vendors when it comes to processor/chips, this hasn't compromised that. They have other revenue streams, so they can survive a hit.

      AMD clearly needs more leverage in the supply chain.

      Their leverage is that they can exit the market and kill industries in the process. This however is equivalent to a nuclear bomb in my mind and shouldn't be used to fight some temporary resource contention issues which is apparently affecting the wider industry too. They're probably looking at alternatives right now, but I suspect the options aren't very desirable.

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    25. Re:Build your own fab by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      Which is the problem with nuclear weapons. Which military would you rather have... Some French ICBMs or India's conventional military with no nuclear weapons?

      I'd take India's military any day. You can actually use it. Last resorts that you don't want to use are often no better then having no resort at all. All they let you do in many cases is put a stick in the eye of the person that killed you.

      Look, I get your point... I do. Get mine... they should be able to produce their product smoothly without getting bumped out of line by Apple.

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  13. Intel would *love* to sell fab capacity... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    ...for the right price. There's no way for AMD or nvidia to agree to that price.

    1. Re:Intel would *love* to sell fab capacity... by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 1

      Intel would *love* to sell fab capacity

      Intel has no need to sell their fab capacity.

  14. Shrinking your competitor's capacity by BenJeremy · · Score: 1

    It's the same reason we import oil in the US - use up the capacity elsewhere and horde your own.

    1. Re:Shrinking your competitor's capacity by ArhcAngel · · Score: 3, Informative

      Actually oil companies have been exporting crude products abroad (They still can't legally export unrefined crude oil) for a few years now because they can make more selling them in other countries. In fact this past June some restrictions were lifted and they started exporting unrefined ultralight oil

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  15. Why I bought INTC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Glad to here you all understand this now. This is why I bought Intel stock 2 years ago. INTC the best chip fab in the world. Ultimately Apple, AMD, and nVidia will lose. Oh yeah, and I will profit! ;)

  16. Re:capitals ? by swell · · Score: 1

    Have a look at Google news where headlines from many newspapers and journals are reproduced. You won't see many publishers capitalizing every single word.

    "Proper English"? Your journalism text is from a different century. My copy of The Associated Press Stylebook (2005), says this: "*capitalization* In general, avoid unnecessary capitals. Use a capital letter only if you can justify it by one of the principles listed here." - I cannot find an exception for headlines.

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  17. I think it might be hard by Sloppy · · Score: 1

    Intel's ahead, but it kind of looks like they have a lot of difficulty too. There are so many different part #s, that it makes you wonder if they all tried to be the same thing, but different wafers passed different tests, and .. viola, diverse line of products!

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    1. Re:I think it might be hard by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Viola? What's an oversized violin got to do with this?

    2. Re:I think it might be hard by serbanp · · Score: 1

      he's just Sloppy...

    3. Re:I think it might be hard by Sloppy · · Score: 1

      Damn, this is even more embarrassing than the flaunting/flouting error of 2009.

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  18. Nokia the ultimate outsourcing warning by jphamlore · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The ultimate story about the dangers of outsourcing is how Nokia destroyed its mobile phone business. Once upon a time Nokia and Texas Instruments had a very close working arrangement with TI being Nokia's fab partner. The two together had a complete phone solution. So how does Nokia treat TI in the mid 2000s: They decided to diversify their wireless chipset providers away from working with TI. Only Nokia forgot one thing: TI don't play in markets where it cannot be overall #1. TI will as fast as possible get out of business segments where it cannot lead. And so TI said to Nokia, bye by 2012. In 2009. By then Nokia had decided it wanted to get its ARM SoCs and wireless modems from the same supplier, and there was one natural candidate, especially since they were, and still are, the leaders in LTE: Qualcomm. Only there was one big problem: Nokia had been caught in a patent war with Qualcomm for years trying to put Qualcomm out of business. It was Nokia that wound up having to settle for billions of US dollars, and suddenly it was at the mercy of the company to whom it had been an existential threat. Oops.

  19. Re:Samsung? by alexander_686 · · Score: 1

    Actually, they may not. It boils down to what you define as "Samsung". "Samsung" is a lose collection of companies with crossholdings. IIRC, the fab plants are in a different company than the company that does the cell phones. Besides, just because you can make one bit of the phone (CPU) does not mean are the best at making other bits of the phone. I think they have farmed out the cell network bits out.

  20. Former Semiconductor Furnace Engineer Here by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If you want the biggest bang for your buck, a single 12" Vertical Semiconductor furnace shipped and installed - $900K - $1m USD (low end guess). I've been to Taiwan into another fab, UMC, and they have hundreds of these furnaces. But with wafers that big, you need an automated transfer system (because you can't trust people to carry $10,000 worth of substrate) Wafer boats, typically holding 13 wafers, are $2000-$3000 each. the substrate itself is incredibly expensive. And not to mention the electrical bills...running one of these furnaces requires heating a 12" Diameter tube to up to 1200C....usually 480 volts into them. With the Silicon Carbide process tubes needing to be replaced every 3-4 months, and the heating elements getting an average 1 year lifespan, that's a LOT of money.

    I don't blame them for not wanting to open their own fabs!

  21. Re:TSMC would *love* to sell fab capacity... by Glasswire · · Score: 1

    And push our Apple or Samsung or Qualcomm for the right price. Again, AMD and NVidia can't or won't pay what that price would be.

  22. Re:capitals ? by SydShamino · · Score: 1

    AP style is to only capitalize the first word and proper nouns

    https://www.apstylebook.com/?d...

    search for "News media" and read the questions that follow

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  23. Why not Intel? by darkwing_bmf · · Score: 1

    The only other manufacturer with 14nm capacity is Intel and there's no way Intel will sell them some capacity.

    Why wouldn't Intel sell some of their capacity to nVidia or AMD for their GPUs? It's not like Intel directly competes with them (yet) in the high end GPU market and high end GPUs help sell new computers with Intel CPUs. I mean if Intel needs full production to fill orders, then of course they wouldn't sell capacity. But baring that (or engineering limitations), there should be no reason for them to refuse to sell capacity.

    1. Re:Why not Intel? by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 1

      Why wouldn't Intel sell some of their capacity to nVidia or AMD for their GPUs?

      Because they make more money using that capacity to make their own CPUs.

    2. Re:Why not Intel? by Luthair · · Score: 1

      Given Intel offers SKUs with higher performance graphics parts (iris) they are effectively competing with the lower end of the discrete GPU market, and probably over time hope to keep raising the bar.

  24. Re:Intel use their old 20nm fabs for their own GPU by blackomegax · · Score: 2

    Intel has such a shit reputation with the GPU/gamer crowd that they'd profit more by leasing those fabs to AMD/Nvidia (strictly on GPU production, i doubt they'd allow AMD to make CPU's on it), whom can actually market and sell GPU's.

  25. Re:what's funny.... by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 1

    the foundry could make more money letting AMD/NVidia use their stuff than Apple.

    In what alternate universe? Apple had nearly $183 billion in revenue in 2014. Nvidia had $4.2 billion in 2014 and AMD had $5.3 billion in 2013. How exactly would they make more money from companies whose yearly revenues combined are less than a single quarter of Apple's revenue?

  26. Problem is they also compete against themselves by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 1

    Current videocards work great. You can play all kinds of games in plenty of beautiful detail. So to get someone to buy a new video card, well you have to offer them a reason. If your new card isn't enough faster, or more efficient, or enough new features, or whatever then people will say "Nah, I'm good," and stick with what they got.

    So they do have a need to move forward on tech, if they want to stick around.

  27. Not their best stuff by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 1

    They only have one 14nm fab right now, and it only makes Intel chips. Maybe they'd sell some 22nm, I dunno, and that might be of interest for a GPU, but they aren't selling 14nm at this time near as I know.

    1. Re:Not their best stuff by sribe · · Score: 1

      They only have one 14nm fab right now, and it only makes Intel chips. Maybe they'd sell some 22nm, I dunno, and that might be of interest for a GPU, but they aren't selling 14nm at this time near as I know.

      Their announced plans for 14nm fabs are vastly more than what they need to supply their own chips--in fact, more than all the world's other fab production combined. Doesn't sound to me like they're planning on hoarding it forever.

  28. Also they heavily invest in R&D by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 1

    Intel really goes all in on R&D. It isn't just that they make a lot of money, their percentage of R&D investment is very high, and they don't cut it in down times to try and squeeze out numbers. That snowballs in the long term and is why they had a 14nm process running when others were still struggling to finalize their 20nm.

    Also a lot of the architectural arguments regarding Motorola v Intel were bogus. It was programmers arguing on academic issues that maybe theoretically should matter, but didn't actually make a different performance wise in final implementation. Little endian would be a good example. Plenty of people act like that is a hugely bad choice, yet it actually matters fuck all.

  29. you're missing the point, GP is right by jensend · · Score: 1

    The article is about GPUs.

    ATI was fabless, and though AMD did still own their own fabs for three years after the ATI acquisition, that was completely irrelevant since TSMC still fabbed all the chips anyways. There were rumblings about doing some chips on AMD's own fabs but it never came to pass.

    So the grandparent is right. ATI / AMD Graphics and Visual Solutions and nVidia have both always been fabless.

    People who think owning your own fabs is always fabulous are disconnected from the realities of the semiconductor industry. It just isn't feasible for most companies to duplicate all the huge material and R&D investments that have to be continually at full throttle just to have any chance to compete in the fab space. Gamers, who care disproportionately about retail add-in graphics cards, routinely overestimate the size of the graphics card industry; Intel's revenue is over 10x either nVidia's or AMD's. Only a fab that gets a lot more business than just nVidia's can possibly hope to compete. TSMC fits that bill.

    1. Re:you're missing the point, GP is right by bloodhawk · · Score: 1

      each new fab is using cutting edge equipment, equipment that itself is custom built and takes a long time. a fab is more the equivalent of a very large cutting edge scientific research lab rather than a factory.

  30. Re:Screw 'em by Ash-Fox · · Score: 1

    Where is the Chinese knock-off AMD and nVidia chips then that are just as good, but cheaper?

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  31. Re:what's funny.... by unixisc · · Score: 1

    Also, most of the phones I see w/ people around me are iPhones. I rarely see a Galaxy or a Lumia. I wonder why people claim that Apple's phone demand is falling? I don't recall seeing lines for new phones from Samsung or Microsoft the way it was when the iPhone 6 was released

  32. No Samsung by austinpoet · · Score: 1

    Samsung was never mentioned in the article, only in the summary.

    Samsung also offers Foundry services, used for previous Apple chips for example, so I highly doubt they use up TSMC's capacity.

  33. Re:Intel use their old 20nm fabs for their own GPU by blackomegax · · Score: 1

    No I mean, Intel GPU tech has a shit reputation and the brand will not hold up in the gamer market if they transition into it.

  34. Re:Intel use their old 20nm fabs for their own GPU by Agripa · · Score: 1

    The discrete GPU market is not large enough to interest Intel and it is getting smaller as integrated GPUs gain performance.