Tesla To Produce 'a Few Million' Electric Cars a Year By 2025

HughPickens.com writes: Reuters reports that Elon Musk, speaking at an industry conference in Detroit, said Tesla may not be profitable until 2020 but that Tesla plans to boost production of electric cars to "at least a few million a year" by 2025. Musk told attendees at the Automotive News World Congress that "we could make money now if we weren't investing" in new technology and vehicles such as the Model 3 and expanded retail networks.

Musk does not see the Chevrolet Bolt as a potential competitor to the Model 3. "It's not going to affect us if someone builds a few hundred thousand vehicles," said Musk. "I'd be pleased to see other manufacturers make electric cars." On another topic, Musk said he was open to partnerships with retailers to sell Tesla vehicles, but not until after the company no longer has production bottlenecks. "Before considering taking on franchised dealers, we also have to establish (more of) our own stores," said Musk adding that "we will consider" franchising "if we find the right partner." Musk did not elaborate, but said Tesla "is not actively seeking any partnerships" with other manufacturers "because our focus is so heavily on improving our production" in Fremont. Last year, Tesla delivered about 33,000 Model S sedans and said the current wait for delivery is one to four months. Tesla has already presold every Model S that it plans to build in 2015. "If you ordered a car today, you wouldn't get it until 2016."

Comments

math

[fyngyrz]

If the current wait is one to four months... considering it's January 2015 right now... and if I ordered one now I wouldn't get it until 2016...

Time travel?

Re:math

[Anonymous Coward]

It's a typo. The wait for a model S is 1-4 months. The model X is sold out for 2015.

Re:math

[astrokid]

It should read that the Model X (SUV.. not yet available) presales have been exceeded for 2015 and future purchases wont be fulfilled until 2016. The Model S (Sedan) is the model with the 1-4 month wait time.

Re:math

[Bing Tsher E]

If these cars are so wildly popular that they're selling out and there is a long waiting list, perhaps we should end the $10,000 subsidy which was intended to encourage purchase of these vehicles.

Seems they would sell fine without the subsidy.

Re:math

[Anonymous Coward]

end subsidies for EVs when EVs outnumber ICE engines, or be a silly asshat and ruin the world with more pollution....you choose

Re:math

[stronghawk]

It's a $7500 tax credit. Same for all electrics, including the Leaf. It's only good for the first 200,000 cars sold (unless it gets renewed).

Re:math

[Anonymous Coward]

I'd rather see $10,000 given for each ICE vehicle off the road than lose everything due to climate change. Already, where I live is being overrun by refugees from California because the drought has caused the cost of living to spike so sharply in that state, that there has been a massive diaspora from the Bay Area and the LA area into my neck of the woods. Now my local city is under a lot of financial strain from all the transplants that bring their California problems with them... but without any jobs for them to do. So, my paying a share of a subsidy so someone buys electric? Far cheaper than losing my way of life.

Plus, it is a lot easier to find fuel for electrical power than to find a single fuel like gasoline. I can run a generator from solar, wind, Congressional hot air, tides, hydro, geothermal, nuclear fission, or even oil and coal. Gasoline is only gasoline, so an electric vehicle in essence, has many fuel sources at its disposal.

Re:math

[Anonymous Coward]

It's very likely that the people with money to buy a Tesla make too much to qualify for the tax credit. (there might be a way to lease it - at least this is an option for Volt)

Re:math

[aviators99]

It's very likely that the people with money to buy a Tesla make too much to qualify for the tax credit.

Everyone qualifies for the BEV tax credit. There is no income qualification other than that you've had to pay enough tax to be able to use the tax credit. So it's possible that you make too *little* to use the tax credit; not too much. I actually had to manufacture tax spend to make sure that I could use it. I paid my property taxes earlier than I would have so that it would be in the right tax year.

Re:math

[LWATCDR]

In other words you bought a car that no one has review and is not even shipping yet.

Re:math

[Gryle]

The GP suffers from the misconception that not taxing people is the same as giving them money.

Re:math

[mark-t]

FTS:

Last year, Tesla delivered about 33,000 Model S sedans and said the current wait for delivery is one to four months. Tesla has already presold every Model S that it plans to build in 2015. "If you ordered a car today, you wouldn't get it until 2016."

There's no contradiction at all... last year, they said that the wait was one to four months. At the time that they said this, that is actually what it was at the time, hence their use of the word "currently". Now the waitlist is more like a year.

Re:math

[volmtech]

Sadly taxes are such a fact of modern life not paying one is now considered a subsidy, from Wikipedia, "Subsidies come in various forms including: direct (cash grants, interest-free loans) and indirect (tax breaks." Pay up sucker.

Re:math

[mattack2]

My federal taxes directly went down $7500 (+ $2500 check from CA, which technically isn't a tax rebate). How is that not a subsidy? If I had not bought the car, I would have had to pay $7500 more.

(BTW, I am against most, if not all, subsidies, even these like I benefit from. I would be fine even having to repay this if you made everyone else do it too... and even getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction.)

Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

No, no, no. Please don't consider franchising or dealing with the devil called auto dealers. For country that loves the automobile, where automobile is the second most expensive thing one buys in a life time, given the love and joy and pleasure the car brings to so many Americans, it is shameful we dread the auto buying experience. We always leave feeling we have been over charged a thousand or two. The auto dealers are the trolls living under the bridge, demanding their pound of flesh for us to get our beloved automobiles.

We were hoping we found a giant killer, a veritable David against Goliath, a David on our side. Now you eh, tu! Elon? Don't. Break their back. Bring national direct auto buying directly from the manufacturer to the nation that deserves it. It is long past time, we let the free markets to be free.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

You are asking a lot from a car company that may start making a profit by 2020.

I don't think direct to consumer car shopping will be as great as you think.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

Can Tesla do something like pick a dealership and add conditions like, "must sell only tesla or only electric cars", "Tesla will retain the right to sell directly too" etc? Why are the standard auto makers not able to sell directly? Is it because A: the law stops them or B: They had signed exclusive agreements already. If Tesla starts with a clean slate, can it have dealerships and sell directly too? Or at least have some more balanced rights and decent negotiating position compared to the gas giants who are wimps against NADA.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[jellomizer]

Part of the problem, is the auto dealers is one of the few middle-class wage jobs out there, that people with limited education can get in and earn a good life style.

However I do not like the idea that companies are forced to have dealers. With some competition will force dealers to value add in their service not just resell cars.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[RalphSlate]

I don't understand this mindset. People hate auto dealers because they don't like to haggle and they also don't want to pay the list price (deeming it too high). In order to remedy this, they want a system where they are prevented from haggling, and must pay the list price.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

I have never and will never buy a new car. You overpaid by more like a couple 10s of thousands. If you buy a used car with 2/3 of its life remaining you will pay 1/3 its original sticker price. Find your love and joy in people, not cars. If you are going to be so emotional about owning a car you should expect people to take advantage of that weakness.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[RalphSlate]

Your vision may be clouded by Elon Musk's cool name and your belief that he is good, not evil. Picture Jack Welch as the head of Tesla instead. Now picture that you're considering buying a Tesla dealership. You pay your franchise fee (maybe a few million), you sign your agreement (which states that Tesla retains the rights to sell directly), you build your building, and you start selling your cars. Turns out that you are pretty good at your job, and your dealership becomes a top-selling Tesla dealership.

Jack Welch checks his monthly reports and says "hmm, look at the Anytown USA territory. Everyone down there wants one of our cars. Let's open a company storefront down there - we can sell for less than our franchise and make more money". Sorry, you're out of business, and probably bankrupt too, because you took the risk for Tesla, and they cashed in.

My father used to own a Texaco gas station. He often competed with stations that were owned by Texaco itself. There were times when those company-owned stations would sell gas for cheaper than they would sell it to him wholesale. Corporate mentality doesn't care about anything but profit.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

Corporate mentality doesn't care about anything but profit.

Nor do car dealerships or gas station owners. The only time we ordinary consumers benefit is when giants compete in a free level field. Right now it is tilted far too much towards the NADA.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

It sounds weird, isn't it? But it works. Everyone pays price printed in the weekly circular from the grocery store, and no one haggles. Once you are sure everyone pays the same price, once you are sure the grocery store can't charge you more than the next guy, you stop haggling. The problem is not haggling, it is the secrecy. In stock market people constantly haggle, sell identical products many many times a day and all transactions are listed openly. That works. People haggle for home prices. They love it. Because in the end the price one paid is listed openly in the deed book. Haggling is not the issue, the secrecy, the ability of the dealer to take a gullible customer to the cleaners, and the feeling that you could be the gullible customer is the problem.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

Corporate mentality doesn't care about anything but profit.

Nor should it. Organizations should have a clear and simple purpose. Society's wishes should be expressed through legal and regulatory frameworks. We should not rely on corporations to promulgate social progress.

Don't expect wolves to guard the henhouse. You will be consistently disappointed.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[david_bonn]

Can Tesla do something like pick a dealership and add conditions like, "must sell only tesla or only electric cars", "Tesla will retain the right to sell directly too" etc? Why are the standard auto makers not able to sell directly? Is it because A: the law stops them or B: They had signed exclusive agreements already. If Tesla starts with a clean slate, can it have dealerships and sell directly too? Or at least have some more balanced rights and decent negotiating position compared to the gas giants who are wimps against NADA.

Yes, Tesla could do all of that. Most dealers wouldn't sign such an agreement. For that matter, most dealers wouldn't want to sell an electric car.

Seriously, most existing car dealers don't know how to sell an electric car and make money at it. Since, for the most part, a Tesla requires far less maintenance than a modern internal combustion car, and since, for the most part, the biggest profit center in most car dealerships is the service center I can't see how the existing dealer networks can adapt to selling a Tesla or any other electric car.

Right now there is a dizzying patchwork of laws requiring automobiles be sold through dealers and not direct from the manufacturer. Historically, a lot of this was to protect local small businessmen (car dealers, who even today are quite well represented in local government). The other argument was that with a local dealer the purchaser of a car could also be sure his car could be serviced locally as well -- and since an electric car requires so much less service, that logic is kind of questionable.

Oh, and car dealerships (or any franchisee) can protect themselves from being undercut by the automaker by insisting on the same terms as any other dealer in their territory. There is also this thing called the Sherman Anti-Trust act that also prohibits undercutting your own dealers.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Hadlock]

Yeah retail salespersons are kind of dinosaurs at this point. You can't technically buy a car on Amazon but you can buy a road legal (in some states) scooter there. Inertia is the only reason you can't order a new Toyota Camry or Prius on Amazon and have it shipped to your house. You can do it with used cars on Ebay at least.
 
I'm not sure jobs or tax revenue are a good reason to impede forward progress though.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[beanpoppa]

Citation, please. Considering my 2012 VW GLI cost $26k new (plus tax and MV fees which you have to pay new or used), how am I overpaying a 'couple of 10s of thousands'? Considering the average price of a new car was $31k last year, I think you are way off base. Second, a car with 2/3 of its life remaining? What is that? 100k miles? 200k miles? We'll go by consumer reports, which says it's 8 years/150k miles. So you are claiming that you can buy my used GLI in 2015 with 50k miles on it for $8600 (forget the fact that Edmunds shows the private party resale value of my car as $17k), which has now lowered by cost of ownership down to less than $18,000. . I spent nothing else to maintain the car- even oil changes were included under the warranty.

I won't argue that over the long term, a gently used car costs less than a brand new car, but your numbers are way off base. I give value to a car that is pristine, and still under full manufacturer warranty.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

So Tesla solved that by marking the price real high and said "Here, you don't have to haggle anymore" and people ate it up.
 
I'm still failing to see how Tesla is the good guys in this case. If this were any other industry (or any other auto maker) people around here would be screaming bloody murder over those profit margins. And you know damn sure that if Tesla's profit margins were lower every fanboy would be screaming it in every post.
 
I really just don't understand how a crowd of people that mostly condemn stuff like this from Apple and their ilk are so quick to suck at the teat of Tesla.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[vux984]

People haggle for home prices

Homes are unique. So are used cars. New cars aren't but your trade in vehicle is.

Once you are sure everyone pays the same price

When the products are unique that isn't reasonable.

People haggle for home prices. They love it

Most do not. But at least if they were smart they have an agent making the offer that isn't representing the seller at all, and they are probably sending the offer to the sellers agent. So the buyer and seller are pretty well insulated from each other, and there isn't high pressure and slimy sales tactics further making things worse.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

That's et, tu! -- latin for "and, you!". Not eh, tu. Although pronounced it is indistinguishable.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[imgod2u]

In such a situation, the franchise owner should've had enough foresight (especially given the vast amount of previous history) to add to the franchise agreement a non-compete clause. Free market and all.

Sometimes one side of said contract has too much power and we need the government to step in and make a law. The problem with that approach is that those laws often outlive their intent. The franchise laws to protect auto dealers were enacted in a day where the Big Three auto makers were the only business in town and continually abused that position. Nowadays they're scrambling for their lives.

The laws in place are no longer needed and now hamper innovation as it presents a major barrier to entry for upstart car companies -- something the people who wrote those laws never considered possible. Therefore they should be repealed.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[imgod2u]

Maybe not but every politician represents the needs of his electorate and that electorate certainly want to keep their jobs.

I'm not saying it's a good reason but often times, technological changes can blind-side a good portion of the population and we have to consider that. Perhaps not stop progress but definitely slow down adoption to give the population time to find new jobs.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[OzPeter]

The problem is not haggling, it is the secrecy.

Before Christmas I walked into my local Firestone franchise and wanted to get 2 new tires. They quoted me $140 a pice. When I said that I could get the same tires for $100 up the street at Costco (but I also needed a front end alignment which Costco doesn't do), suddenly their price was $100. Then the next day when I came in to get the tires changed*, the cost was actually $80 a piece. It's that sort of secret, we won't tell you the true price crap that I hate. Combined with all sorts of attempts to up-sell, and add-on services that I said 3 times already that I don't need.

* What stunned me was that I had 2 good tires and 2 bad tires. Somehow they manage to replace the good ties with the new tires and left the bad tires on the car.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Firethorn]

Bought my Tacoma new in '08, still driving it today, intend to drive it for at least another 3 years, probably longer.

When I went car shopping, the extra interest I would have paid on a newer used truck(which wouldn't have had the exact feature set I wanted, and I looked), would have ended up costing me more money. The raw price difference was only about $1k, as you mention I wouldn't have the warranty length left, wouldn't know the entire driving history of my vehicle, etc... The extra 3% because used car loans are higher interest rate than new would quickly swamp the price savings unless I paid cash(which I couldn't at the time).

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[funkymonkjay]

It depends how the pricing works out. If you could compare Tesla to the company Apple, when Apple started selling their devices at places like Walmart and Bestbuy, I thought here is a bad idea but then I noticed these vendors were selling it a lower price. I don't know how that came to be but who doesn't love lower prices. If the same pricing model holds, I welcome these dealers.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

You really think there is no slimy sales tactics in home sales?

You should never tell your realtor what your maximum price is, since their commission will be shared with the selling agent, they have an incentive to ensure you pay as much as possible for your house and will let the other agent know you are willing to go higher.

Give as little information to an realtor as possible, they'll use anything to ensure a higher commission.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

If Texaco was so good at only caring about profits, why aren't they still in business? Maybe there's more to the successful corporate mentality than caring only about profits.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[TheSync]

My father used to own a Texaco gas station. He often competed with stations that were owned by Texaco itself. There were times when those company-owned stations would sell gas for cheaper than they would sell it to him wholesale. Corporate mentality doesn't care about anything but profit.

Of course through the effects of corporate self-interest, consumers got cheaper gas than they could from your father's rip-off gas station...

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[F34nor]

They resold the good ones of CL for $20.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Toshito]

Since, for the most part, a Tesla requires far less maintenance than a modern internal combustion car

I don't know where that meme comes from, but on my last 2 cars and my current one (all bought brand new), I've never had a repair done that was related to the engine or transmission.

All problems where electrical (radio, door locks, etc..), brakes (the parking brake was frozen in place) or suspension (links, ball joint).

So appart from the 2 or 3 times a year oil change that's so cheap they can't do more than 2 or 3$ profit on, I don't see where a Tesla could bring in less work for the dealer since it has the same electrical, brakes and suspension components.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[RalphSlate]

That's one way to look at it - though characterizing it as "rip-off" because he wasn't charitable enough to subsidize people's gas seems a little antagonistic. Perhaps you didn't read where I wrote that Texaco charged him more for gas (i.e. the wholesale level) than it charged its retail customers. He took the risk by pioneering the market, they later came in and undercut him once it was established. That is the corporate way.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

consumers got cheaper gas than they could from your father's rip-off gas station...

Many times the gas station does not even own the gas or the pumps. They lease/rent the right to the signage (they pay for it but still pay for the franchise rights). Sometimes they do not even own the building, just the business. The local pump stations usually own the rights, property, and set the price. So in this guys case he was say trying to buy gas for 1 dollar (which they said they would sell it to him for). Then they turn around and sell the same exact gas to their buddy down the street for 99 cents. Most station owners make 2-5 cents per gallon. Which they then give back to pay to be a 'texaco'.

In this case he WOULD sell for 99 cents but cant because the wholesaler is undercutting him. Usually they do it to show the 'owner' who is in charge. The owner has to remove all margin just to make some sales. Usually cutting into their 2-5 cent margin depending on octane type and it is usually in the contract how much they can do.

A buddy of mine made the same mistake of buying one of these franchises. At the end of his contract he packed up the whole store, all the parts in the garage, and the lifts, the pop, the cash register, everything he owned. Then opened his own garage (which he is doing very well at as he does not rip people off). Then he called them up and said 'you better get someone over here and lock up your pumps my lease is up and this monster is no longer my problem'. That gas station was out of business for 6 months as it took awhile to find another sucker. They screwed him over to the tune of 10k over 3 months by setting the price 30-50 cents higher than all the stations in town as he got mad at them for changing the price 3 times in one day to price gouge everyone in the area. As he is the one who hears it from the customers not them who actually set the price. He made about 3k per month on gas. Of which he pretty much gave right back to the guys selling it. There is a reason all that crap in the store has such high prices...

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[RalphSlate]

That's almost a convincing argument, but you missed something - a corporate store means a complete monopoly on the product, and the price is 100% fixed. Think: Apple.

That does not mirror a grocery store. Sure, the price of a can of beans is fixed, but only at that store. If you don't like the price for that exact can of beans, you can try several others, and often can do better.

I do get your point about the secrecy though - although for the most part, even though prices are openly posted everywhere, they are de-facto secret because you can't get the information. You don't know how much a can of beans costs at all stores right now. You don't know how much I paid for it yesterday. It's still secretive, though open.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

You are both making the mistake of trying to find the used car equivalent to the new car you bought. You are trying to justify your new car purchase. A new car is just about 100% of the time a bad financial decision, so don't bother trying it to justify it to me or yourself, frankly. If you approach it from the standpoint of finding a great value in a used vehicle that meets your needs then you can find the make and model that has shed 2/3 of its purchase price after 1/3 of its lifetime. Notice I said "if you buy a used car that" not "all used cars do". Cars should last over 250K miles. You obviously want to avoid buying cars with short lifetimes and high maintenance costs if you are shopping on value. That blows VW right out of consideration due to expensive maintenance. You should also be paying cash for your used car and if you can't afford to pay cash that means you can't afford the car and should buy a cheaper used car. If you don't have enough cash on hand for a cheap used car your emergency fund is non-existent and you are screwing up your personal finances badly before you even make the mistake of buying a new car and hanging a car payment millstone around your neck.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[alvinrod]

On the other hand there are plenty of sites now where you can contact a previous owner directly, and if you really wanted make arrangements for someone to deliver the vehicle to you. It's really just an evolution of checking the listings in the paper and calling the person or driving to their location yourself. The only difference is that there's no centralized entity that's in anyway responsible for the sale itself, it's just connecting buyers and sellers.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

Electric motors are demonstrably more reliable than internal combustion engines. That is where the meme comes from.

Cars have lots of electrical problems because most automakers don't know how to build good electrical machines. Look at the hardware failure rate in your tablets, phones, furnaces, air conditioners, dishwashers, light switches, TV, VCR, and the rate of electrical failures in automobiles. Auto company engineering top honchos are all mechanical engineers who suck in electrical machines.

Look at the biggest pissing contest between the automobiles. Time to do 0-60. Their solution, make bigger and bigger IC engine, more and more complex transmission. The could have removed the first gear, replaced it with an electric motor, just strong enough to get the car to 2 or 3 mph. Heck, they could have engineered the starter motor already meshing with the flywheel to do it. Then the powerful IC engine kicks in, as it ramps up the rpm, it would accelerate the car to 60mph much faster. Tesla with pure electric motor it was beating BMW, Mercedes, Porche, Corvette, Lexus all of them in their biggest prize 0-60 time. The top engineering leads on all those companies should hang their head in shame. This is the technology nothing to do with batteries, nothing to do with renewables or efficiency or anything. It is something that would have earned them bragging rights over their competition in their most important pissing contest. They flunked. They could have done this in 1960s! Nothing new.

OK OK I am talking with hindsight. But it is not my job to imagine and envision the next generation of automobile. It is their job. And they did it so poorly.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[bws111]

This makes no sense. Car dealers are no different from any other retailer. Just because they make money off of service today does not mean that is the only way to make money. They can make money:

Selling extended warranties
Selling dealer options (floor mats, etc)
Financing
Raising the markup on the product

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[MMC Monster]

Because we Tesla Fanboys (I certainly count myself as one) understand that there's a big difference what Tesla does and what other car dealers do.

The secrecy in the price is what aggravates most car buyers. If I knew that I paid the same price for my BMW as everyone else who bought one this year, I would happily buy another BMW (if they made a full-electric that ran for 250 miles and had similar features to a Tesla, that is).

Tesla Fanboys also realize that Tesla is using the profits from their cars to build up the infrastructure for the supercharger network as well as pumping the money into R&D for the next couple Tesla models. After all, that's what Elon Musk said several years ago and the only thing he's wrong about is his slipping timeline.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

They've done away with a lot of the traditional-dash switches as used in a regular car as well--- the radio/media center/heat/AC etc are all controlled by the center screen console. Regenerative deceleration puts a lot less load on the brakes (so most Model S are still on their original brake pads). The only liquid the car consumes is windshield washer fluid.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

It's not important whether the items in question are unique. It's just that they're big-ticket enough to warrant the attention of an individual to make the pricing decision for that individual sale.

Wal-Mart puts an item up for sale for $1.00. If you offered them 98 cents for it, otherwise no sale, and the transaction cost of them evaluating that offer and responding to it was magically set to zero, they'd likely take you up on it - their profit margin is usually going to be large enough to eat the two cents to move an extra item, though not necessarily on everything. However, the transaction cost isn't zero - the attention of someone to make that decision costs money, so in this case they would say "why are you wasting my time, we don't haggle the prices for a dollar item."

When you're spending five or six digits at once, you're not talking to a cashier. It is very much worth the company's time to decide how far to compromise their margin in order to get the sale.

The reason that shopping for cars is pretty miserable is that the dealerships have a tremendous amount of experience with this kind of behavior and have engineered the process such that it's quite difficult to negotiate with them; the entire construct of "here is the list price and we're immediately knocking off x%" is a reflection of this. The dealership knows that you want to haggle the price and so they have set up an elaborate pantomime of haggling; by obfuscating their "real" starting price, it's difficult to judge whether a particular offer is a genuine representation of the dealer's normal price, or an inflated price that's only thrown out there in order to have you undercut it; likewise, it's difficult to tell if your counter-offer is "right in the dealer's ordinary strike zone" or "so low they're losing money on it" or for that matter "two thousand bucks over sticker because you didn't do the financing math right." (I, uh, sold cars for a few months once and actually closed a sale of the third type, quite by accident. It does happen.)

Fortunately the information is available for the sophisticated consumer, which is why most dealerships have an internet department that operates as a no-bullshit sales office: "here's the invoice price, I'll give it to you for that, come on in and bring your bank paperwork". As more and more consumers realize that they have access to this information, the older style of sales will become less and less important, but for the time being there's a TON of money to be made off people who don't realize that all the negotiation with a sales guy is a smokescreen designed to keep them from knowing whether they're actually getting a deal...

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Dcnjoe60]

Corporate mentality doesn't care about anything but profit.

Nor do car dealerships or gas station owners. The only time we ordinary consumers benefit is when giants compete in a free level field. Right now it is tilted far too much towards the NADA.

Hopefully you don't believe this. The only time ordinary consumers benefit is when there are many small sellers, so supply and demand can actually function. When the field is dominated by a few giants, only the giants (and their shareholders) benefit. A free market depends on nobody, buyer or seller, being able to monopolize the market for their own advantage.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AK Marc]

for the most part, the biggest profit center in most car dealerships is the service center

I thought it was the used lot. New cars make them $200 to $5000 (depending on the area and the specific car), but a used car makes $2000 to $10000. Service is ok, but they don't make a mint on it. Certainly not in the '70s and '80s (when independent repair shops were common and able to fix anything in a car). Not sure if that's turning around with in-car DRM on parts.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[d34thm0nk3y]

Of course through the effects of corporate self-interest, consumers got cheaper gas than they could from your father's rip-off gas station...

Only until his father's gas station is out of business. Then Standard Oil ......ack....I mean Texaco jacks the prices up and nobody gets cheap gas.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AK Marc]

I had 3 transmission failures in an '87 GM before I sold it (family hand-down). My mother had an engine replacement, partially covered by warranty out of warranty by Audi, a 2000 model, work done in '07. '81 Accord lasted about 10 years, died with a complete engine failure, and had a bad transmission for the last 5 years or so of its life.

I've seen many cars have major powertrain failures.

And with regenerative brakes, you need to do the brakes less often.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AK Marc]

A lot of the electrical problems are traced to bad engineering. Vibrations are hard on connectors, and rather than building one that worked, they took "standard" ones that didn't work that well, and used those. When they start failing, you get poor power (gaps/sparks, voltage drop, and such) that fry electronics.

They know the problems, and choose to not fix them because the fix is expensive.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AK Marc]

http://tech.slashdot.org/story...

I thought you could buy a car on Amazon, though only 3 were sold that way.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

Yes, but apple competes with microsoft and google.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

Yes, I knew I made a mistake. Also I really don't know the correct declination for Elon. If his name was Elonus, then when I calling him at close quarters I would call him Elo-neh (Like Bru-teh) or if I call him at a distance I should use Elo-nah (like Bru-tah"). But with a name not ending in -us, my Latin is not good enough to write it right.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[yuriyg]

"...Let's open a company storefront down there - we can sell for less than our franchise and make more money".

There were times when those company-owned stations would sell gas for cheaper than they would sell it to him wholesale

This is actually really good for the consumer, and thus for the economy.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Hadlock]

The link to buy the car just pushed you to a dealership contact form, it was mostly an ad wrapped up and disguised as an Amazon listing.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[david_thornley]

You're being awfully dogmatic there. You say cars should last over 250K miles. This may be correct, but that's not going to be the case for all cars, and in my experience they start becoming a bit less reliable and more maintenance-prone after 80K-100K miles. Moreover, you don't know the cost of maintenance for the next 150K miles, or the lifetime of the car, although you can guess. So, you can buy new and pay more, and get the best years of the car's life and know exactly how it's maintained, or you can buy at the 100K point and take your chances. Moreover, cars continue to improve, so buying new gets you the newer improvements when they happen. You also seem to be judging cars on dollar per mile, rather than any other criterion. Both buying new and buying used are defensible choices.

As far as financing goes, you need to look at the interest rates. We could pay off my wife's car, but the interest being paid on it is considerably less than the return on our investments. When the loan ends, we'd have more money just paying it off on schedule than if we paid it off all at once. Also, what do you do if you can't afford to pay cash for a car and keep your emergency fund intact at the same time? Ditching the emergency fund to buy a car seems like the wrong move.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[lgw]

It doesn't take many sellers, is the thing. 3 is often enough if they're not illegally colluding.

The main protection, though, is lack of barrier to entry. If the few big players are bad, but new players can just undercut them without being regulated out of existence by the big guys' pet senators, then that's just as good. That's the battle right now with Tesla - they're quite the disruptive new player, but they're being fought in the "you must have dealerships" regulatory war, instead of in the market.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AK Marc]

They were delivered in an Amazon box.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Chalnoth]

Why not? Right now Tesla has far more demand for their cars than they can fill. The reason why they're in the red is because they're building their manufacturing capacity so rapidly.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Carnivore]

And I'll counter with my own anecdotal data point:
My Juke was recalled because some timing chains were failing, causing the engine to eat itself.

ICE cars need a lot of maintenance to stay roadworthy. We are simply used to it and don't think about it much.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Carnivore]

I don't want to have to go to the dealership armed with "how to not get fucked by the dealer" materials and research from all over the web and my loins girded for battle.
Buying my car was a terrible experience; I walked out of two dealerships because they were such abusive assholes.

I don't want to wonder if I got a good deal. I don't want to second-guess my choice. I want to go to the Tesla store and chat with the associates who know their stuff. Get a test drive. Share the office lunch--Best sliders ever! Thanks, Kat! Configure the car how I want it, get it delivered. Perfect.

No pushing to get me to buy some random car that happens to be taking up space on the lot. No attempting to intimidate us by suggesting that my wife maybe can't do an interest calculation, then getting offended when she drops her astrophysics PhD on the table. Never again. Tesla really has to badly fuck the Model 3 up for me not to buy one.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[dlingman]

That worked out so well for Saturn didn't it?

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[angel'o'sphere]

That is what some idiots at the stock market try to tell you.
And what basically is going wromg in our industry.
First of all: .apple competes with neither google nor MS.
And why MS wanted to have their own search engine to compete with google is bejond me.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[deathguppie]

Me and my wife just picked up a Nissan Leaf this weekend. I can honestly tell you that I felt like I needed a shower after we left the dealer, after listening to him blab on about how I had been so smart about doing all the research before buying the car. He had no clue what research I had done, and didn't really know enough to answer any questions I would have had, if I had not done the research. \

PS. the car is for my Wife, she drives less than 40 miles a day at most, and was tired of dealing with car maintenance and gas. I simply ran distance measurements across all of her hypothetical travels around the city (Seattle) and came up with a number that would be sufficient almost any day, given that the low range number reported was around 40 miles. She's been doing fine, even using the heater, and having no idea how to properly conserve energy. (she's a technophobe)

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AaronW]

The whole dealership model doesn't fit Tesla very well. Unlike dealerships, there are not cars sitting on a lot. The cars are built to order, customized with each customer's requirements. There is no inventory of new cars.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[drinkypoo]

Virtually all automotive electrical connectors are purpose-built for automotive applications, which has been true for pretty much all vehicles since about the late 1970s. Whether they're worth a crap or not is another question; for most of them the answer is no.

One of the very few cars I've worked on which actually has a great electrical system is the classic Mercedes. I haven't touched anything modern so I don't know how long they stuck with this style, but you can literally take apart pretty much all of the connectors on the car and solder new pins onto the ends of the wires, then snap the connectors back together — and new connector housings are cheap and plentiful today. This is true at least up into the early nineties on the S-class.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AK Marc]

Sounds like amphenol. "Easy" to fix (presuming you can solder). Widely available. Vibration resistant. But they are heavy and expensive, so never used in automotive applications (for overly-generalized definitions of "never").

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AaronW]

With my Prius I had a couple of minor things related to the engine. One was an oil leak, something far less likely with an EV. I also had to replace a water pump several times and the belt. I also had to regularly change the oil, air filter and fuel filter. I also had to replace the radiator when it sprung a leak. With my Tesla my brakes are used quite a bit less than even with my Prius. There is basically no maintenance required for the drive train. The electric motor is lubricated for 12 years.

The only required maintenance is flushing the coolant every few years, rotating the tires, changing the cabin air filter, wiper blades, etc.

Things like A/C and power steering should also be more reliable than most cars since both are fully electric. The A/C doesn't have flexible hoses and the compressor should be far more reliable than a normal belt-driven one with a clutch. The 12v battery is the same though. I'm getting mine replaced tomorrow (under warranty). Unlike many cars though, it gives plenty of warning. It popped up a message on the dash and contacted Tesla.

Suspension is similar but even the electrical is simpler in many ways. All of those sensors and components needed for a gasoline engine are gone. The number of modules is quite a bit less. Sure, there's the inverters for charging and driving the motors, but many of the other ones are gone. Working on the car is also a lot easier. Where many things in an ICE car are blocked by the engine, they are quite easy to reach in my Tesla. If you remove the front panel under the car or the frunk insert you can reach just about everything.

Even the motor and inverters are very easy to reach. It takes under five minutes to install the entire drivetrain at the factory. The motor is tiny too. The induction motor in my Tesla is 416HP, 445ft-lbs of torque and the size of a large watermelon. There's no transmission, only a 9.73:1 gear reduction to the differential. The motor is smaller than the transmission on many cars.

Many of the failure points are gone. There's no transmission, ignition system, engine water pump, thermostat, belts, fuel pumps, smog stuff, catalytic converter or muffler.

Some problems can be addressed remotely. I have had issues fixed and even new features added from periodic software updates that are done over the air.

For an all-wheel drive EV it gets even better since there are is no drive shaft or transfer case between the front and rear wheels.

One other difference is that the mechanics seem to be quite a bit cleaner than the ones I see working on ICE cars.

My car has had more than average maintenance since mine is one of the early ones (low 5000s VIN). Virtually all of the issues I have run into were addressed in later versions of the car. Most of my issues were various rattles and noise related. When the 12v battery started to fail the car notified me before it happened and also contacted Tesla. Tesla called me about replacing it under warranty before I told them about the problem.

One difference between Tesla and other car manufacturers is that Tesla builds far more of their own stuff in-house. Most car companies farm a lot of stuff out. It makes it far more difficult to make changes. Tesla, on the other hand, can make changes almost immediately. They don't wait for mid-year or the next year to make changes. You can't say you have a 2012 or 2013 car since they make changes every few months, often adding new features.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AaronW]

It's hard to haggle when each car is custom built to order. There is no inventory of cars. There are well over a dozen different options when you build your car. It's very up-front, showing you exactly how much each option cost and what the total price is. You can't haggle, "Well, I don't really want that option." or "This isn't my first choice for color." since you get exactly what you order.

When there's an inventory of cars it's a lot easier to haggle, especially if a car has been sitting on the lot a while.

Unlike dealerships, the people in the showrooms do not earn a commission on cars sold. Cars are sold online. When you are online you can go through and change options at will until shortly before they build you car. There is no haggling. There are no slimy tactics trying to get you to buy the car. There's no incentive for the salesperson to try and sell you blinker fluid and other crap. The only stuff they sell at the showrooms are accessories, things like floor mats, keychains, storage bags, shirts, jackets, etc. Everything they sell you can also buy online.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[choseph]

Exactly. I bought a Leaf S the same time as my Tesla about a year ago. Tesla was a dream experience -- no secrecy, no haggling, no getting screwed. I went in, they showed me the online site and I started my purchase there, then went home and finished with the options I wanted. For the Leaf I had to talk to 4 dealers. 2 wouldn't talk to me over email and I had to "come on in". I told them all my company and asked if they had deals but none mentioned one. I finally found the best price 1.5 hrs away (despite 2 closer) and had to drive up there only to then have to haggle about details and my trade in value. Took them 4 hours to do paperwork and loan stuff. In the end I got screwed because there *was* a special deal with my company and they just hid it into the price but didn't give me the full value, they didn't mention all the features my car didn't have based on the one I test drove (oh yeah, the S and SV are the same except for the XXX and YYY...nope). Leaf = horrible experience that still gets me mad. Tesla = 10/10 would purchase again.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

It did work out for Saturn for a while. It was a nice buying experience, just like going to the Apple Store. And the dealer knew a thing or two about the cars and was happy to tell you about them, while you weren't worried about paying games to try and get a better price.

Now, what Saturn did wrong was they tried to become a Chevy or Pontiac instead of a Prius or Volt, as an economical hybrid with plastic body panels (20 years later, not one dent).

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[haruchai]

"You can't say you have a 2012 or 2013 car since they make changes every few months, often adding new features."
  I have mixed feelings about that on the hardware level. Without some kind of breakpoint, it's impossible to know what you're getting. I've seen videos from Tesla owners where the location & length of the steering column levers have changed from the car they bought to the loaner they received.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AaronW]

I ran into that as well, though admittedly the original location had the turn indicator rather low compared to most other cars. They also had to make some changes for the new cruise control features. You still pretty much know what you are getting since they update the options on the web site. Usually the changes are more subtle or new options are added and sometimes removed.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[drinkypoo]

At least some AMP connectors require special tools to break down. You can break down most of these old Mercedes connectors without any tools at all. That will let you get in and re-squash pins, e.g. with a rock.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

Since, for the most part, a Tesla requires far less maintenance than a modern internal combustion car

I don't know where that meme comes from, but on my last 2 cars and my current one (all bought brand new), I've never had a repair done that was related to the engine or transmission.

All problems where electrical (radio, door locks, etc..), brakes (the parking brake was frozen in place) or suspension (links, ball joint).

So appart from the 2 or 3 times a year oil change that's so cheap they can't do more than 2 or 3$ profit on, I don't see where a Tesla could bring in less work for the dealer since it has the same electrical, brakes and suspension components.

Most dealers count on oil changes as opportunities to upsell you "maintenance packages" which include over-frequent coolant flushes and air filter changes. They count on customers not checking, or not remembering, their vehicle's maintenance schedule.

Not seeing their customers 2-3 times a year for oil changes will kill their service operations.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[Anonymous Coward]

That's almost a convincing argument, but you missed something - a corporate store means a complete monopoly on the product, and the price is 100% fixed. Think: Apple.

That does not mirror a grocery store. Sure, the price of a can of beans is fixed, but only at that store. If you don't like the price for that exact can of beans, you can try several others, and often can do better.

But oh, Safeway has a "monopoly" on Safeway Select brand kidney beans, and Kroger has a "monopoly" on Kroger brand kidney beans. How can you possibly compare the two?!

Tesla competes with BMW and Lexus and Ford and everyone else. Just like how Apple competes with Samsung and Dell and everyone else. You don't like the price, you buy a different, equivalent product. Simples.

Re:Tell me it ain't so, Elon!

[AK Marc]

I've never worked with an AMP connector that took more than a screwdriver to break down. That's nice because the tightness of tools ensures a secure fit.

More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Firethorn]

Yeah, I can see why Musk would like to see a few more EVs out there. Heck, I can see him wanting them to use his charging technology.

More manufacturers making and selling electric cars helps justify the creation of more infrastructure, which increases the value of the cars he sells without costing Tesla money.

If the extra cars means that businesses, restaurants, and stores 'all' install a charging point, that's a good value boost.

Also, 'current wait' is 4 months, yet if you ordered one today you wouldn't get it to 2016? That's a 12 month wait. I can understand why they don't want to consider franchising yet if that's the case. Still, I consider the idea that Musk is even willing to consider franchising/dealerships to be a massive change in stance. Previously he pointed towards being massively against the idea. Maybe he's starting to hit organizational issues?

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Anonymous Coward]

More EV's yes, but not from Telsa. They cannot complete with GM, I'm not talking about whose car is better, but economically which company will survive. Telsa is like Delorean, unfortunately you can't just start a car company.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Anonymous Coward]

the 2016 date is for the Model X, whish has sold out its 2015 run, not the Model S which is a 1-4 month wait time

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[bangular]

EV's are an afterthought for every manufacturer except Telsa. At best, they're tinker toys to help get their average MPG to a rate that makes Uncle Sam happy. 100% of Tesla's sales are EV's. Less than 1% of GM's are EV's. I just still don't see anyone taking EV's seriously except Tesla. They want an EV presence "just in case."

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Anonymous Coward]

GM has a crap Volt and a concept car Bolt which wont even be selling for another two years.... GM is not a competitor to Tesla - Teslas competitors are BMW, Audi, Lexus and Tesla is destroying them

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Anonymous Coward]

Bull. Manufacturers wouldn't be putting money into R&D for cars with more range if that's all they wanted. Nissan is currently outselling Tesla and I have a hunch that GM will outsell Tesla if they can deliver. The Tesla Army just loves to babble like this as if Tesla is the only one that can pull it off.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[stronghawk]

Again, typo in original posting. Model X is > 12 month wait. Model S is a few months depending upon configuration.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[stronghawk]

GM has billions invested in engine block casting and engine assembly plants. That's why they want an engine in the car somewhere, even if it's not really needed (e.g., the Volt). The Bolt will be problematic for them if it catches on..a lot of write-downs would be coming.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[jklovanc]

Comparing Telsa with Delorean is not valid.

The company failed because the high expectations and desires of the founder John DeLorean did not match the realities of the level of manufacturing technology and market demand of the late 70's and early 80's. The car was also an under performing over priced piece of junk. The only unique aspect of the car was the gull wing doors and stainless steel skin, everything else was a technological compromise that resulted in lack luster car.

Tesla actually makes decent vehicles.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[T.E.D.]

Also, 'current wait' is 4 months, yet if you ordered one today you wouldn't get it to 2016? That's a 12 month wait.

That has to do with the flux capacitors. If you order one today, they'll get around to making yours in 2016. Then they set the date back to when you ordered it and drive it 88MPH up the railroad tracks. Then it just has to wait 4 months for them to finish up the paperwork, and its yours.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Firethorn]

Yeah, I saw that when I hit refresh. When I typed this up there were no responses.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[jratcliffe]

Tesla sold somewhere in the neighborhood of 15k (probably a bit less) cars in the US in 2014. BMW sold 340k, Audi sold 180k, and Mercedes sold 360k. Tesla slightly outsold Maserati, and came in behind Jaguar.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Anonymous Coward]

"GM has a crap Volt" that has owner satisfaction ratings in 90+ % range. Two of the last three years this rating was the highest of any vehicle. For 2014, Tesla was highest, Volt in third place.

I priced the cheapest Tesla, $75,000 out the door. Street price on Volt is $30000, minus $7500 tax credit, plus sales tax etc, call it $25,000.

I would love for someone to give me a Tesla. But I would love a crap Volt + $50,000 cash even more.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[F34nor]

I think his point is that the Tesla got the highest score ever by consumer reports. They said it is the best cat they have ever driven bar none. So if you are considering a M5 or a S4 why would you by something the has a higher cost and less performance?

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[F34nor]

The sunk cost fallacy. So what if they spent money on it if it sucks now? You can never recover sunk costs you can only invest current capital in the best market. Move on.

Ironically GM came up with the Tesla style design after the EV1 and wanted it to have modular bodies so you could switch from coupe to van on the same frame/battery/engine platform. Unfortunately they stuck their head up their ass instead,

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Anonymous Coward]

Tesla sold somewhere in the neighborhood of 15k (probably a bit less) cars in the US in 2014. BMW sold 340k, Audi sold 180k, and Mercedes sold 360k.

and Mercedes and Audi are both pulling their midrange sedan for 2015 in response. The A7s and loaded A6s and E-Classes exist only on paper...hardly any are being made. They know damn well that anyone looking at a buying a $60K-$70K sedan is strongly considering stretching their dollars for a Model S.

Mercedes shot their business model in the foot a few years ago by producing an great low-end car. They sold and leased a fuckton of C300s, but they've been unable to get those owners onto the Mercedes treadmill because the step up to an E350 wasn't a big enough improvement.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[david_thornley]

Sunk cost isn't completely a fallacy. Having all that fancy production capacity means they can build gasoline engines cheaper than they otherwise could. It doesn't mean they should continue to make engines if they're not profiting on them, but it does mean that they need to make relatively less money on gasoline engines than electric.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[rsborg]

GM has a crap Volt and a concept car Bolt which wont even be selling for another two years.... GM is not a competitor to Tesla - Teslas competitors are BMW, Audi, Lexus and Tesla is destroying them

While I'm not sure why GM can't sell many of their Volts I think that'll change once their newer model can seat 5 and has higher EV range and total range. It seems like Prius++ - not sure why folks aren't buying it.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Anonymous Coward]

The headlines about declining Volt sales are because it has reasonable competitors now in the form of the Fusion and CMAX plugins from Ford. Volt sales are down year over year, but sales of plugins with decent electric only range are up.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[AaronW]

Sure they can. GM isn't planning on selling a lot of EVs. There's a big reason Tesla is building their gigafactory. It will dwarf LG's factory which GM uses. GM's $30K price point also likely includes selling them at a loss. They'll sell enough for the credits and that's it. GM may have said the price point, but they didn't say how many they plan to sell.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[AaronW]

Tesla outsold BMW, Mercedes and many other cars in its class. The total numbers for 2014 have not been announced yet. If you're comparing Tesla you need to compare BMW's 7 series, Mercedes S class, etc. GM's Cadillac ELR which was supposed to be the Tesla killer flopped big time. There's a two year supply sitting on the lot. Tesla sells more in a week than GM sold ELR's all year.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[choseph]

leaf price was similar to volt price. I like my leaf, but I'd still take the Tesla over a leaf + 50k. If you are in it for something to get you from A to B and you want something with some electric power, lots and lots of choices. Tesla is kinda in a tier of its own right now and *if* you have the money to spend on an 80k car, then you aren't going to get the leaf/volt + 50k.

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[jratcliffe]

The "Tesla outsold Mercedes S-Class" claim again? That was true for 2013, during the end of the S-class model generation, which had unusually low volume (13k units). Definitely not true for 2014, when the S-class sold 25k units in the US. My 15k unit number for Tesla in the US is actually a high-end estimate, more likely to be 13-14k. So, Tesla's 2014 US sales are going to be a bit more than half those of the S-class. I don't have data on the 7-series handy. As for the ELR, that performance has more to do with Cadillac (which hasn't been successful thus far going after the German lux lines across the board) than Tesla.

Don't get me wrong, the Tesla is a great car, but let's not get carried away.

http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/...

Re:More EVs = More Infrastructure = More Sales

[Anonymous Coward]

Destroying them by taking a tiny fraction of the market and even that mostly due to big subsidies?

Re:typing

[rwa2]

Typo... the link says it's the Model X SUV that's presold-out for 2015. So you only have to wait months for an S Sedan.

Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[lemonnfresh]

What does Elon know that we don't know in regards to oil prices? He ain't selling that many cars if oil stays under $50 a barrel, the demand just won't be there.

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[cellocgw]

What does Elon know that we don't know in regards to oil prices? He ain't selling that many cars if oil stays under $50 a barrel, the demand just won't be there.

While I agree that the preponderance of USA car-buyers are in fact that stupid, i.e. basing their purchase choice on an incredibly volatile price index, I would argue that the intersection of said morons with the set of people who have seriously considered an electric are is vanishingly small.

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[iggymanz]

while I agree the preponderance of "greenies" like you are in fact that stupid, the average car buyer has far more common sense than you and so will pay a third or less for an IC vehicle since the fuel costs for a decade and a half would still be cheaper than a limited range electric car of today

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm baffled as to what he knows about oil prices. We are reaching effective peak oil (real peak oil happened in 2005), and from there on everything based on oil will skyrocket in prices. Hint: electricity is about 20% of the worlds power, most of it is oil and coal. Depending on who you ask the date is sooner or later, but even the FMI and other international institutions have agreed that oil production is going down.

Now tell me where that electricity for the cars will come from, when renewable sources of energy can't meet the demand of electricity consumption alone.

Re: Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[Anonymous Coward]

10,000 miles per year, 33 MPG, $3 per gallon = $1000 dollars. How much are other costs, like insurance. People who actually do the math realize that gas vs electric has little to do with fuel cost. Rather, my Tesla is cool -- way cooler than your Porsche or Escalade.

Re: Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[iggymanz]

My internal combustion insurance is $650 a year. Not seeing a compelling argument there either.

Re: Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[iggymanz]

in fact even the altruism argument about reduced pollution doesn't hold, there will not be enough electric cars produced in the next 10 years to make an iota of difference, especially as existing IC vehicle aren't going to be scrapped overnight. Instead, getting IC fuel from a smarter carbon neutral source, such as GM modified algae that eat cellulose to produce butanol or such is what we should be doing

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[cellocgw]

Which has dick-all to do with either my comment or the original posted comment on this subthread.

Not to mention your completely unsubstantiable claim that I'm a "greenie," whatever that may mean to your troubled mind.

Greenies are what I feed my dogs to keep their teeth and gums healthy. Interpret that as you wish.

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[F34nor]

Burning oil in a high efficiency turbine and sending it over wire is more efficient (50-60%) that putting it in a car (15%).

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[statusbar]

The Tesla is not a car you buy because you can't afford gas. It is a car you try to afford because it is the best car overall: http://www.businessweek.com/ne...

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[deathguppie]

Bravo, sir.. Bravo.. (light hand clapping).. couldn't have responded better myself.

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[AaronW]

Most of the people who can afford a Tesla aren't really worried about the price of gas. Electricity is still a LOT cheaper. Also, don't expect those cheap gas prices to last forever. Saudi Arabia is basically using their cheap prices to punish Russia, Iran, Syria, etc. as well as more expensive oil in the US and elsewhere. They're sitting on a huge mountain of cash. Once they've killed the competition expect them to bump their prices back up.

Re:Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[choseph]

People aren't spending 80k on a car to save 2/3 of their gas bill, and I doubt people buying an 80k car are swayed by +/- $2/gal

Re: Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[Anonymous Coward]

You've entirely missed the point of the original comment: If an individual is able to pay $100k for a car, they don't give a shit about cost of ownership in any real sense.

Tesla produces superior vehicles, regardless of cost to own and cost to environment. People buying a Tesla want it for the exact same reasons someone would want any $100k vehicle: scarcity, attention to detail, and the performance (and possibly the perception of being modern).

People truly wanting to "save the environment" will purchase a bicycle.

Re: Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[iggymanz]

If someone wants to waste money on a "toy" for coolness factor, I have no argument to give

Not if gas stays under $2/gallon

[Anonymous Coward]

I'll be buying a Tesla for my next car, whether or not gas prices go back up. It is worth several thousand dollars to avoid the damn car dealer experience, and at the moment Tesla is the way to do that.

Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[Koreantoast]

I have tremendous admiration for Elon Musk and Tesla, but ramping up production to that of a top five or even top ten automobile manufacturer is almost unrealistically ambitious. Building up the supply chain for the materials, hiring and training workers, setting up factories, etc... these are things that take years to do even under ideal circumstances. The fact that they're having difficultly with numbers and quality at such a small batch just makes it more complex.

I've also talked with a few industrial engineers that specialize in this type of manufacturing, and at least based on the videos released, the way his assembly lines are setup right now are not going to scale up well. For him to meet his production goals, he's going to have to completely redo the way he does fabrication and final assembly. Should also be pointed out too that the NUMMI plant they're operating out of produced at its peak 6,000 vehicles a week: a healthy number, but an order of magnitude lower than his goals. He will have to expand, probably build more factories, and that will take time. Again, these are just the issues of the factory, it doesn't even go into the other issues.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[Anonymous Coward]

Should also be pointed out too that the NUMMI plant they're operating out of produced at its peak 6,000 vehicles a week: a healthy number, but an order of magnitude lower than his goals.

In 2013, total U.S. automobile production was 4.1 million. For him to say he's going to be producing about that same amount ten years from now is completely absurd. It really makes me think he's just another conman talking out of his ass.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[Mr D from 63]

Not to mention that by the time the market supports one manufacture of 1 million units/year, there will be lots more competition at every level. Someone will start Faraday Motors and take some share as well.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[trevc]

There exists a much larger world outside of the U.S.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[gweilo8888]

You're only just now realizing this? Even Toyota, the world's largest automaker, has *global* production of just around 10 million cars per year, and unlike Tesla, their vehicles aren't carefully aimed at sucking blood from the rich -- they actually sell vehicles the common man can afford. It's beyond completely absurd to suggest that Tesla will get to even a third of that point within a decade.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[Anonymous Coward]

You proceed from a false assumption.

The Tesla factory fronts the 880 Freeway in Fremont on the east side of the San Francisco Bay. Instead of building a brand-new factory, Tesla purchased the old Nummi factory that had been producing GM and Toyota vehicles since 1984 before closing in 2010. Tesla paid only $42 million for the plant, which sits on 380 acres and was originally constructed in 1962.

The Nummi factory is already big enough to build half a million vehicles a year. They've been expanding lines for the last year to accommodate larger production volumes.

Tesla is constrained now only by battery availability and cost which should go down as the gigafactorys three phases come on line.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[Koreantoast]

You said it yourself, the NUMMI factory can produce half a million vehicles a year. That's a large number, but that's still only a fraction of several million vehicles per year in Tesla's stated ambition. Last I checked, Fremont doesn't have room to scale that facility up five or ten times. He's going to have to go out and start setting up new factories which is a big task. And again, this is only talking about fabrication and final assembly, he's also going to have to scale up his supply chain, and that may actually be a more difficult proposition whether he in-sources it or goes outside.

This of course is assuming that he can even get his production numbers up, and right now, Tesla is still struggling to scale up from the 500/month they're producing right now. I'm not saying he can't do it, but I say the odds are far against him.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[Firethorn]

unlike Tesla, their vehicles aren't carefully aimed at sucking blood from the rich

Point of order - Elon Musk has quite clearly stated that he's following a strategy of working his way down to the middle class and such with his cars. It's just that sucking the blood from the rich is the most profitable(so his company can actually live long enough to do it!) way while production numbers are low.

Volkswagen is the only car company I can think of that didn't start it's life producing luxury vehicles, and it started up with massive state support.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[imgod2u]

The stated ambition was "about a million cars" The article is incorrect in its quote. The liveblog (and video) are much more accurate.

One thing unique about Tesla's manufacturing is that the supply chain is materials. Most everything else is produced by Tesla themselves at the Fremont factory. Many questioned why this decision was made but there are many long-term benefits. When your supply chain is all raw materials, availability becomes much more predictable and your ability to influence the supply by pumping some money into a mine is far easier than say, getting a different company to shape up and manufacture more parts.

The only part of a Tesla that isn't produced at Fremont are the batteries and that's why the Gigafactory is coming online.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[trevc]

You only just now learning reading and comprehension?

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[romanval]

Tesla admits they're using only 20% of the former NUMMI plant space to build the Model S/X.. which is supposed to be low volume/high price flagship vehicle. They're still designing the Model 3's manufacturing method (alongside the vehicle itself)..

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[Dr. Spork]

Your post is suggesting that Musk may be naive enough to not anticipate all the difficult steps necessary for ramping up production, but somehow I have more faith in him as a businessman. Did you see how he handled the negotiations about the battery factory? Like a bawss.

Higher end Teslas were always meant to be a learning experience for the company. They're high-end cars, so they're made in a boutique setting like high end cars tend to be. There is a sense in starting upmarket and working your way down as you find your feet. You can bet that Musk has very smart people identifying and fixing all production bottlenecks. When they're ironed out, the cost of production really will fall a lot, because the sense behind his process is to minimize human intervention. The problem with automation is designing machines that are good enough, but I expect that this is exactly where they're making headway. Well, maybe not. And maybe, demand for Teslas isn't bottomless, once they're produced on a BMW scale. But I wouldn't bet against Musk.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[AK Marc]

A number of them started as airplane engine manufacturers. And some others started as small engine manufacturers (motorbike and such). Subaru, a subsidiary of Fuji Heavy Industries (or something like that) was well funded by a dedicated parent company, might as well be state support. Kia and Hyundai started aiming at the mass-market, at least that's how it looked when they hit the US shores. I'm not Korean.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[AK Marc]

So he's following the old American model where the raw materials went in one end, and the cars came out the other? I would have thought that the electronics and such would come in pre-made, and assembled, rather than made on site. Assembly of parts (batteries, electronics) would be easier than manufacture. The panels and such should be easy enough to make on-site.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[deathguppie]

At some point the raw materials could be hydrogen atom, at which point you would have to compress them until you get a supernova and then gather the created elements.. "raw materials" I believe is just relative to the product.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[AK Marc]

For the Model-T, the raw materials was ore and trees in one end, and cars out the other, or something like that.

Re:Few Million a Year is a BIG Stretch Goal

[vandamme]

There will be plenty of empty car factories to buy on the cheap once he gets cranked up.

Stealership conditions

[Firethorn]

Must sell only Tesla/EVs: Probably could. However, the dealer could also simply set up a second LLC right next door and open another. IE: Blarmy's Tesla dealership is right next to Blarmy's Honda dealership.
Retain the right to sell directly: Very unlikely - most state laws, even those that don't require an 'independent' dealer, forbid the manufacturer from directly competing with the dealerships for customers.
Standard automakers: See the state non-compete laws, laws requiring dealers(Texas), and yes, a very big chunk of history with already signed agreements.
Clean Slate: It's already shaken out in many states that except for already built sales points, they're not allowed to expand without going to dealers. In other states the only reason they're allowed to sell directly is indeed because they don't have any dealerships(in state, at least).
Defense against NADA: Right now it's only real power is continuing to boycott them.

Money talks, electric car walks

[sinij]

I love the idea of electric cars, and Tesla is on my "lottery win" shopping list. With that said, if you apply hard numbers these cars do not make any sense at the current gas prices. Tesla's battery mega factory may change these numbers, but as of right now electric car premium substantially overshadows any and all gas savings. This is even before we start talking about hidden costs of scaling electric car ownership up.

As to mass-producing these cars, I have doubts that infrastructure could handle mass-adoption. The key issue is time it takes to charge, with gasoline one fuel pump can get driver in and out under 5 minutes. With charging stations you need 30 minutes or so. So Tesla has to build lots and lots concurrent "charging slots" and then develop congestion-mitigating techniques at the popular sites. Then they will have to invest into electric grid to support massive loads incurred by charging stations (ironically, the cost effective way to do this is by building 'load balancing' natural gas generators). Then they will have to mitigate inevitable increase in electricity costs due to supply&demand curves. Imagine what will happen to electricity costs during peak usage when everyone runs AC AND charges electric cars at the same time!

So we have following major roadblocks: a) cost of batteries b) cost of expanding charging stations network c) cost of electric grid infrastructure upgrades d) cost of accommodating increased load during peak times . Could all of these challenges be met? Sure, but it is unlikely achievable without public funds.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

You're right on some points but off on others. Most EV owners that I know of don't lean on the whole charging station thing too much. Seeings as where most of your EVs are still in the 80-100 mile range that's going to change even more if Chevy, Nissan, et al have longer range cars within the next 2-3 years. I know that I want one that will suit my driving needs without any real reliance on the public charger. With that in mind my magic number is 120 miles on a charge. It seems that will be no problem in 2017 or maybe even sooner.
 
But there is a hidden cost that most EVers don't want to bring up and I can't speak for Tesla on this but I know Nissan doesn't work it into the cost of their car... A home level 2 charger is big bucks. A good one goes for about 2k although you can get cheaper models. 2k is as much as I spend on gasoline in a year right now. Anyone planning on really needing to own a 150-200 mile EV without thinking they don't need a level 2 at their home is either crazy or they have a solution in/around their place of employment. As the roads get more crowded it's just not going to be a reliable option to pop in to one of the 3-4 chargers at their local grocery store and juice up while they shop and we know damn well that we're not going to have rows of chargers in every public lot. Home charging will be the only thing that makes sense under the current charging scheme. Things may well change but these cars look like they'll be out before public charging is seriously addressed.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[stronghawk]

The key issue is time to charge for infrequent long distance travel. Daily travel requires "no" waiting time. Pull in the garage, plug in. When you want to go, unplug and back out. No wasting even 5 minutes at a gas station--in the rain, snow, etc.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[stronghawk]

The charger is built into the Tesla. What you need is a $600 cable and adapters--they also come with the car. You really just need a 220V/50A outlet. Tesla sells a high power adapter that uses a 100A circuit, but that is just an option, not a requirement.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Jeremi]

I love the idea of electric cars, and Tesla is on my "lottery win" shopping list. With that said, if you apply hard numbers these cars do not make any sense at the current gas prices.

The truth is that none of the cars in the luxury category make any economic sense -- why spend $60,000+ on a luxury car when a $12,000 Honda Fit would get you to your destinations just as effectively?

So why do expensive cars sell? Because they're cool. And cool is something that Tesla's cars have, in spades.

Imagine what will happen to electricity costs during peak usage when everyone runs AC AND charges electric cars at the same time!

Okay, I'm imagining a lot of people switching to charging their cars at night, and running the AC during the day.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Firethorn]

a) No argument here. Gigafactory should help
b) Cost of expanding charging station network - They're doing it now. Heck, every time somebody buys an EV they typically increase the network size by the charging station in their garage.
c) Built into the cost of building the charging stations
d) increased load during peak times - It's more likely to increase baseload, actually. They're highly computerized big drawers. It's relative child's play to mess with the charging timing and draw to ensure that you're NOT charging your EV during peak times. Well, 99% of the time.

Time of charge: Remember, 99% of the time people aren't fueling up in order to extend their driving range. They're filling up on the way home or to work, simply to 'top off' the vehicle, it's not a daily. With an EV they don't need to take a 5-10 minute timeout to drive to a gas station to fill up, they simply drive home and plug in. 30 seconds in the garage and they return to a full battery in the morning. Or plug in at work(hopefully work has solar panels or something), again, not going 1 meter outside their intended drive simply for fuel.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[beanpoppa]

Get out of the gasoline mindset. I commute to work 5 days a week, 30 miles each way. I park my car in my garage every night. I fill up my tank about once every 8 days. It takes about 5-7 minutes each time.

With an electric car with a 200 mile range, I would still drive my car 60 miles a day, but I would no longer be stopping at a gas station every eight days. I would be plugging in every night. The only time I would ever need a charging station is when I need to drive more than 100 miles away from my house. I do this MAYBE once a month. So, already my demand at a 'fueling' station is 1/4 of what it was.

Add to this the difference in costs build a fueling station. A public level 2 charging station can be installed for as little as $5000. Level 3 would currently cost about $50,000. A charging station can be anywhere, and can be built in days. Charging station supply will be able to increase very easily as demand does. You can even put one in a school parking lot. The electrical infrastructure to deliver 'fuel' to just about any corner of the continent is already in place. Basically, you charge your car wherever you park it. A gas station is a destination.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[swb]

I'm curious if the neighborhood electric grid is scaled to support swapping out half or more of the 70-odd cars on the block for electric cars. Assuming a generic assortment of random cars charging at an average rate of 5kW that's a new load of 160kW.

It's probably not an issue in a cold climate in the winter (since it would balance out the power we'd normally use for air conditioning) but what about the summer?

And then I think, well, scale that up to the entire city and suddenly it seems like a whole power plant's worth of power.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

I think you have it wrong on the price point versus gas costs issue. The Model S is not a regular sedan coming in at luxury prices. It is luxury car and sports sedan that competes handily with other high end premium brands (Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, Audi) in the same price range...it just happens to be electric.

All the reviews and testing bear this out...it is among the best cars ever tested in its price range.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

we know damn well that we're not going to have rows of chargers in every public lot.

Been to a Whole Foods lately?

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

How fast is the charge on the Tesla free-be? Nissan has a free charger too but I don't think most people are happy with the (just off the top of my head) 12 hour charging cycle.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Whorhay]

Well the cars would likely be charging during the evening and through out the night, when peak power demand has slacked off. So it's possible the infrastructure might need a little beefing up, it's also possible it'd be just fine. Another possibilities is the cars could be programmed to hold off charging until later in the evening when demand really slacks off, and in some locality power gets cheaper. Also given that the car will most of the time only need to recover 40 miles or less of charge it won't need to charge all night and so it could wait to charge in the last few wee hours of the morning.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Bo'Bob'O]

If buying cars were simply a matter of price vs purely practical specifications, we'd all be driving Toyota Yaris or commercial vans. Nothing wrong with these vehicles, but sometimes people want to pay a little more to get a little something else or extra out of one of the items that is to most people one of their largest personal investments.

Yes, for a small few it might be a choice to seem trendy or fashionable.. but so what? For the vast majority of people interested there are many big picture and pragmatic reasons to want a car like this. Yet, the criticisms and concerns people often express about cars like the Tesla are far less superficial then what seems to be the average criteria most people use to put value on their gas powered cars.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[swb]

Everyone always says the cars will charge late at night when demand is low, but is that a function of the charger gizmo on my garage wall or the car itself? I see people coming home from work and just plugging in the car to the wall as a matter of habit unless they have immediate plans to go someplace that evening because it will be a bitch to wake up and go to work and find that you didn't plug in and your battery doesn't have enough power to get you to work.

So in theory you could have a huge demand from 1730-1830 until 2200 or so. Maybe they will have some way for the car to query the grid to find out what the optimal amount of power it can draw at any given time.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

Sorry but the normal Model S is not competing with the sports sedan "handily." Your base P85 has all the pickup as a Subaru WRX. The Scooby will even beat it in some of the normal street rod tests. You need to get extremely high end to have the Uber Tesla and I have a hard time just considering that another Model S at it lists for nearly 150% the price of the P60.
 
And while the interior is nice it's not really that much nicer than most mid level sedans... unless or got a real fetish for the touchscreen console, it's not bringing much to the table.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Whorhay]

I am by no means an authority but my impression was that the computer in the car that manages the battery pack would control the charging schedule. Maybe it'll actually be an option that you can configure depending on your needs.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[AK Marc]

And don't forget, the AC peak is correlated with the solar output peak. So more solar would help ease the peaks (At least in he US south, southwest, and west).

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

As a Leaf owner, I can tell you why most EV drivers you know don't bring up the cost of a quick charger: they aren't necessary.

How long does it take to charge your cell phone? You probably don't even know, because it doesn't matter as long as the thing has enough juice to do what you need to do while you're away from an outlet. Which ... as it turns out, really isn't that often unless you're camping or something. The phone works just as well at 1% charge as it does at 100% charge.

It's the exact same thing with an EV. It's gonna drive just exactly the same at 10% as it does at 100%. As long as 10% is enough to get where you're going and back, it really doesn't matter. So, you plug that thing in when you're home and it's just exactly like your cell phone. It goes when you need it to go, and beyond that you really don't even notice or care.

At any given time, my leaf usually has about an 80 mile range. Times I've been stranded, or had to change my travel plans because of battery charge in the last year: 0. Also it costs about $30 in electricity per 1000 miles, and has had zero maintenance problems. No oil changes.

Before gas prices tanked, I was actually saving more in gas over what I used to spend per month, than the actual monthly payment. It was *literally* paying for itself. Now it isn't, but you know ... whatever. That ain't gonna last too long, I'm sure. The battery will flatten out over time. Guess that sucks, but after a year of driving it, 0% battery degradation according to the computer.

My only wish is that someone would come out with a battery trailer that I could rent to take it on road trips. Which is totally feasible.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

5-7 minutes every 8 days isn't much more (possibly less) time than most people spend putting on and taking off their shoes over the course of 8 days.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Carnivore]

I know that Tesla's interface allows you to start and stop charging at specific times, and I assume the others do, as well. The power companies can use EV time of use rate plans to get people to charge their cars when it's best for the grid.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[rsborg]

The electrical infrastructure to deliver 'fuel' to just about any corner of the continent is already in place. Basically, you charge your car wherever you park it. A gas station is a destination

Not only that, but a gas station is future super-fund site waiting to happen. Why do you think gas companies don't own stations anymore? The EPA would put them out of business actually cleaning up their messes.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Areyoukiddingme]

I love the idea of electric cars, and Tesla is on my "lottery win" shopping list. With that said, if you apply hard numbers these cars do not make any sense at the current gas prices.

What's with this "current gas prices" meme? The current gas prices have applied for maaaybe 3 weeks, if you're lucky. And suddenly people are absolutely giddy. Yay! Gas is free again! What? No it's not. It's temporary, despite the pronouncements of random Saudi princes. It's probably short term temporary, and there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth when it rebounds.

Even if it's not short term temporary, I would be vastly surprised if gas prices stay this low for the lifetime of a new car purchased this year.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[choseph]

Eh, if you go at it with that mindset, then anything above a Honda Acura "does not make any sense". It isn't about just getting from A to B or we'd all do with much simpler. There are features of the Tesla that add a convenience factor, and sometimes even a status, that people enjoy. For us, never having to go to a gas station again has been really really great. We rarely go over 250 miles in a day (actually, probably once in 5 years), and a year in we've yet to charge during the day -- just plug in at night at home and wake up fully juiced. Imagine waking up every morning to a full tank of gas...just feels good.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

As a Leaf owner, I can tell you why most EV drivers you know don't bring up the cost of a quick charger: they aren't necessary.
 
For your 80 mile Leaf it may not be necessary but for a 200 mile Leaf? Are you seriously thinking that people are going to be ok with having to charge for 30+ hours if they actually use the 200 miles? And that's why I said "Anyone planning on really needing to own a 150-200 mile EV." I agree that most people don't really need this kind of range but they will need a EVSE if they really do have the need to make 150 mile trips on a fairly regular basis. Even at 150 miles you're talking nearly 24 hours to trickle charge. That's kind of a big deal.
 
  How long does it take to charge your cell phone? You probably don't even know, because it doesn't matter as long as the thing has enough juice to do what you need to do while you're away from an outlet. Which ... as it turns out, really isn't that often unless you're camping or something. The phone works just as well at 1% charge as it does at 100% charge.
 
As I type this I have my cell charging while listening to music on it. The things is, it's not a big deal because it's tethered to a power source. Let me see you pull that off with your fancy EV because I can tell you that when I travel battery life on my cell phone does become an issue that I keep an eye on.
 
  It's the exact same thing with an EV. It's gonna drive just exactly the same at 10% as it does at 100%. As long as 10% is enough to get where you're going and back, it really doesn't matter. So, you plug that thing in when you're home and it's just exactly like your cell phone. It goes when you need it to go, and beyond that you really don't even notice or care.
 
Maybe that works for you but it doesn't work for everyone. It's one of the reasons I need 120 miles on a single charge reliably. Your current Leaf couldn't do what I need a vehicle to do. It's not that I'm traveling often outside of the range but there most certainly are times I'd not have time to do charges between trips. A couple hours on a trickle charge just isn't going to get me enough juice to get to my next destination. Sometimes I don't even have a couple hours to charge.
 
  after a year of driving it, 0% battery degradation according to the computer.
 
You better be suspect of what your computer says or you don't understand what it's really saying or you should sell it back to Nissan for 10 times the price because you got a miracle on your hands. My guess is that you don't understand what your car is really telling you and I see this kind of thing in the Nissan Leaf forums from a lot from new owners, they don't know a Gid from a hole in the ground.

Re:Money talks, electric car walks

[Anonymous Coward]

It may be different in the U.S., but in Europe most old petrol stations have had the ground beneath them cleaned up decades ago.

Volt, not Bolt

[Anonymous Coward]

First, typo in summary. It's the Chevy VOLT not Bolt. Second, Musk Motors will sell more cars if they don't price themselves out of the market, also the ill-will they generate from people like me who in fact ARE VOLT OWNERS, who would have considered a "Tesla," if they were reasonably priced, make me far less likely to buy a Musk Motors car in the future, even if and when I could afford it, because there's no real, valid reason why they should be as expensive as they are.

Even if Chevy sells each Volt at a slight loss, there's no reason an electric vehicle, or an extended range EV (like my Volt) should cost so much more than they do. Musk's cars are VASTLY overpriced, and I predict his company's going to go the same way all OTHER tiny, niche car makers have gone over the years.

Meanwhile, the REAL car companies, like Chevy for example, are going to EAT HIS LUNCH, since I got my Volt for about $30,000, and that's AFTER paying the dealer's mark-up, bitches! So enjoy seeing the fancy, schmacy overpriced "Tesla's" while you can, they'll be going the way of the dinosaurs before too long. Musk fucked up, to put it bluntly, though ironically, cars like the Volt will help him sell his over-priced over-compensation-mobiles because they encourage installation of charging facilities HIS cars so desperately need to exist in order to be viable in the eyes of the general public.

In reality, he had the opportunity to do something good for America, and the world, and his customers, and he blew it. He could have turned the car-buying & ownership paradigm on its head, and he FAILED, deciding instead just to cut out the middleman, when the middleman actually does perform a service, in this case, helping you decide which car you'd be happy with, then arranging the purchase.

Re:Volt, not Bolt

[enjar]

Chevy just introduced a concept car called the Bolt. http://cleantechnica.com/2015/...

Re:Volt, not Bolt

[Firethorn]

Not to mention that Musk still has that 4 month waiting period for every car Tesla can produce, so no, the AC's just being butthurt that richer people can get a Tesla before him. Musk is intending to release a $30k car just as soon as he can provide batteries for them(see gigafactory). Battery prices at 1/2 to 2/3rds of what they are now should really help there. I've seen some articles that suggest that Tesla is already producing batteries far cheaper per kWh than any other maker.

Re:Volt, not Bolt

[organgtool]

I've seen some articles that suggest that Tesla is already producing batteries far cheaper per kWh than any other maker.

Which makes GM's claims about the Bolt very suspicious.

Re:Volt, not Bolt

[Firethorn]

Which makes GM's claims about the Bolt very suspicious.

Not really if you figure that GM's planning to use the Bolt like it did the EV1: In order to meet CAFE requirements. If not rolled back, that could mean subsidizing each Bolt to the tune of several thousand dollars because you need to sell 1 Bolt for every 20 Yukons or some such.

Re:Volt, not Bolt

[Anonymous Coward]

when they bother to make enough to matter get back to us; clue: even they say it wont be for sale until 2017

Re:Volt, not Bolt

[deathguppie]

The Chevy Bolt is should be a 200 mile $30,000 electric car. The price estimated was, after the $7500 tax credit. Elon Musk said yesterday, that the model 3's price tag of $35000 is before the $7500 tax credit. Making the model 3 about $2500 cheaper.

Of course this is all speculative at this point. Chevy's car is only a concept car, and as we could see by looking at the volt concept may have nothing to do with the actual production model. The same can be said about the model 3 which we haven't even seen concept drawings of

Buying one this year or next

[WillAffleckUW]

Either a Tesla C or a Chevy Bolt.

Or maybe the iBMW.

Not picky. Electricity is dirt cheap and 100 percent green at both my workplace and my home.

(and before you coal and fossil fuel guys criticize it, I mean that literally, I own solar PV cells on the Seattle Aquarium and pay for 100 percent Green electric through the 100 percent level at Seattle City Light, yes I know Eastsiders in Bellevue pay for 1/3 coal but they're deadenders, Seattle rules!)

Re:Buying one this year or next

[Anonymous Coward]

yes I know Eastsiders in Bellevue pay for 1/3 coal but they're deadenders

Geographical bigotry is still bigotry.

Re:Buying one this year or next

[WillAffleckUW]

yes I know Eastsiders in Bellevue pay for 1/3 coal but they're deadenders

Geographical bigotry is still bigotry.

Dude I live in the Center of the Universe, in the Fremont neighborhood of Seattle.

We are who we are.

How are you liking my vision of Seattle so far? Adapt or die.

All your future is belong to fossil fuel disinvestment.

Re:Buying one this year or next

[Anonymous Coward]

You are proving my point.

Seats?

[Mirar]

Does that mean that when they finally made a car with comfortable seats, it sold out? :)

(My main problem with buying an S is that the seats actively hurt my back. Maybe because I'm 6'4. I don't know.)

Also, does Tesla need systems developers? :)

I hate cars.

[Snufu]

And long for city with only pedestrian and bicycle paths and clean mass transit. Cargo and shipping is handled by an automated cart network hidden from public view.

I can dream :(

Zager and Evans

[iluvcapra]

"Tesla To Produce 'a Few Million' Electric Cars a Year By 2025"

If man is still alive, if woman can survive...

New vs used

[Firethorn]

I agree with everything you say.

He's also making a lot of assumptions:

You are both making the mistake of trying to find the used car equivalent to the new car you bought.

Nope. My main requirement was 'Truck, capable of towing X', along with a few other requirements/desires. I looked at both new and used models, not to mention the paper for 'for sale by owner' vehicles. New happened to not only fit my desires list better, but they offered a better price as well.

A new car is just about 100% of the time a bad financial decision

Indeed, very dogmatic. Me, I broke out the spreadsheets. $10k@5% = $500/year. $10k@8% = $300 more, and my loan was for more than $10k.
Penny wise, pound foolish. I already said that the NEW truck worked out to be cheaper than a used one. My situation may not be the same as most, but it was my situation. Probably because most people who buy trucks like mine don't willingly give them up within a decade.

Cars should last over 250K miles.

That requires doing the proper maintenance, including during their formative(new) period. Guess what people who ditch their cars after 2-3 years often don't do? My Tacoma is coming up on it's 80k maintenance period, and it's still chugging along great. I know it's gotten every oil change with quality oil, that the fluids have been checked, etc...

If you don't have enough cash on hand for a cheap used car your emergency fund is non-existent and you are screwing up your personal finances badly before you even make the mistake of buying a new car and hanging a car payment millstone around your neck.

Cheap used car isn't a reliable used car. All things being equal, my next vehicle WILL be purchased with cash.
The disposal value of a cheap used car is less than the purchase&outfitting cost on it if you're not going to keep it. It worked out cheaper to just get the loan.