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Ask Slashdot: How to Avoid The Worst of a Tech Bubble?
An anonymous reader writes: I just reached a senior level in a tech career and I've been doing pretty much a bit of everything, e.g. software architecture, full stack dev, eng. related specific dev, consultancy, etc. So I'm at a point where I want to start focusing on something that has a good development path, i.e. I won't struggle finding a job, it'll be fairly paid and it'll allow me to move up in responsibility (bigger teams, more difficult projects) if I want to. It seems like we might be heading into a new tech bubble. Based on your experience of the .com collapse and your predictions for the current market, is there any path you wouldn't recommend (or strongly recommend) if this bubble goes pop? What were the roles most affected when the .com bubble burst back in 2000 and would it be any different this time? Is there anything you can do to be better prepared, such as focusing on broader techs rather than niche techs, etc.
Works on bubbles, vacuums, what have you.
Remember, plumbing is at the heart of civilization - the Romans figured that out for us. Without plumbing, we would be up shit creek.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
If you can finagle it, try getting into a management position. Sounds like you have plenty of experience to base your campaign off of. You'll be better compensated and have a lot more upwards mobility.
Don't be inside the bubble when it burst.
Get free satoshi (Bitcoin) and Dogecoins
I presume you're really saying, "How do I avoid being laid off."
That's simple: be more valuable to your employer than your colleagues.
There are many ways to do it, but I recommend the following:
1) Stay up to date on the state of the art in your industry;
2) Volunteer for roles of responsibility on interesting and valuable projects, and help them succeed;
3) Deliver on your commitments;
4) Don't act like an asshole, or a prima donna, and when asked to pitch in and help in other areas outside your specific area of concern, help out;
And for god's sake, stop whining about "impossible deadlines." Learn that if date is inflexible, scope and quality are the two metrics that must flex - and learn how to put that decision in front of your managers. Bonus points if you can demonstrate for them the financial impacts of those tradeoffs to assist in their decision making.
There's no magical tech skill that makes you immune to a bubble. Learn what your employer values, and then provide large amounts of those values to your employer. If you can't, don't be surprised when you're the first one on the chopping block.
I know this doesn't answer your question, but you, and for that matter everyone, should prepare for being caught in a career-derailing recession/squeeze/bubble/whatever while at the same time doing what you need to reach your personal career goals.
Yes, you should be asking your peers (us) "what mistakes should I avoid" and "what looks promising" but you shouldn't neglect the questions of "what will I do if I get squeezed out and am forced into a low-end job for several years and when the economy does recover I basically have to start over with entry-level tech wages? Will I have to sell the house? Will my kids have to go to community college? etc. etc."
One way - perhaps the best way - to prepare for the worst is to live below your means as a lifestyle choice. This is a very realistic option for almost everyone employed full-time in a technical field in the United States. If you don't have an emergency fund of 1-3 months of current living expenses, aggressively save until you do. Then set aside enough extra each month so you have enough cash on hand to last 9-12 months on an "austerity budget" plus enough cash on hand to do a proper job-search and/or get re-trained. The 9-12 month cushion is over and above paying your bills and credit cards on time and contributing a responsible amount towards your retirement and your kids' college fund. Raise your kids so they won't be emotionally burdened if you have to move to a smaller house/cheaper neighborhood/give up cable TV/etc. or if you have to work 2 jobs for awhile. You get the idea.
Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
The bubble isn't really tech. Its some aspect of tech. Just like the .com bust was caused by too much money in startups without legitamate ways of raising revenue and the 2008 collapse wasn't a banking collapse, it was a ssubprime mortgage collapse. Figure out what the cause will be, and find a company that is not in that subfield and has minimal reliance on it. This won't allow 100% avoidance, but will limit your exposure.
FWIW I expect the eventual burst to be due to an advertising collapse- someone has to actually sell something at some point. Established companies that sell physical goods should be immune, firmware would be a good call.
Also, the best way to be bubble immune- cash in the bank, so you can ride it out. I don't need to work this decade, so a few months without a job won't hurt me.
I still have more fans than freaks. WTF is wrong with you people?
You are looking for a job that requires skills and qualifications as a barrier to entry and that does not depend on discretionary spending by the client. Your choices boil down to 'undertaker' or 'COBOL maintenance'. C.
You're the first to go and the least likely to be treated with any respect.
Twitter supports and protects racists - by smearing their critics with the "Hate Speech" label.
Start a meth lab. The meth market really took off after the bubble burst. Probably because of all the developers being dejected after being ejected. Take advantage of the suffering of your fellow human beings. It's the epitome of capitalism.
Do some due diligence and make sure the company you work for has solid sales and real profits.
While this is true in many cases, the angel investor of today has generally got priority on returns from any sale of a startup today. It's very different from the publicly traded dot com bust according to articles I've read on the subject. If "the bubble" pops this time, some investors will be hurt if they can't sell the startup. However, if the startup is sold for what was invested, the people left holding the bag will be the employees working for little more that stock options and a dream of a big exit. Those people will have worked months/years and will get no return. Their shares will be effectively worthless.
Join a startup when times are good expecting times to stay good seems like a good way to get burned. (buy high, sell low) Joining a startup accepting that there is inherent risk in what you are doing is, as always, a gamble. (penny stocks) Joining a mid to large size company with a legacy code base that has to be maintained by some old master in a particular language/framework/architecture seems the safest route to steady income, but you'll never become really wealthy. (Bonds) Catching the hype wave and riding it into newer, higher paid positions has great returns until your wave turns out to be a dud. (Stocks) In 2005 it was web apps, in 2010 it was mobile apps, in 2015 it looks like machine learning. If you bet on HTML5 apps in 2010*, you struggled. Many did.
*Flame away HTML5 people. HTML5 didn't make $40000 a day on flappy birds and iFarts. I know those are exceptions, but employers eat that stuff up. Salary studies that I saw reflected this.
I rode out the first collapse in oil and gas. Right now healthcare looks promising esp. with the push to records automation. Do some research to which industry would be least affected and then move on.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
There's a lot of companies that shouldn't exist, or some that are artificially inflated. The demand for engineers is absurd, so companies, even the big ones, are hiring countless pseudo-engineers with little experience, no degrees (not that you can't be good without one, but it sure as hell doesn't hurt... I myself am doing fine without), or just bad.
They don't get fired because companies want every hands they can get.
When things get back to reasonable levels, those people will be without jobs. Just be better than them and you'll be fine.
I survived the bust than happened right at the end of the Clinton administration/beginning of the Bush administration by being in my field in an unrelated industry. I did I.T. work at an oil company, the burst didn't touch me at all - initially. Until the oil industry took a major hit, and the I.T. industry hadn't recovered yet, but at least I got a well past the burst before I was thrown into the fray.
Now that the I.T. industry is stronger and isn't exactly in a bubble, I'm still shielded by working for another industry. In fact a bit of an I.T. field bust can actually benefit my particular place in the industry as it forces vendors to beg for my business and cut better deals, and if I need to hire project help from the pool to select from is better stocked versus when the industry is thriving. Yes, that's cold and pragmatic, but it doesn't stop it from being a fact.
On the other hand if the I.T. industry is thriving (I really miss those days) I have an easier time jumping ship and going to something better.
The preceding post was not a Slashvertisement.
Work in a recession resistant industry
But these are prime candidates for reorganization and cost cutting moves. And then there goes your job. Particularly in industries with mature (lower growth) markets. The only way to increase profits is to cut costs. And frequently the only way to cut costs is to cut direct expenses (payroll) and send the work overseas.
Have gnu, will travel.
"The only constant is change" -- the late Robert Monroe
There are no guarantees any tech is stable. That's the relative nature of tech -- it constantly changes (for better or worse).
All you can do is stay current. If you want value then you be valuable. This means keeping up-to-date with popular skills. Fads such as some programming languages and management styles come and go, but good design, critical thinking, and communication are always relevant.
If you truly want a "recession proof" job then work in real-estate or the military.
I was selling trade show exhibits in Silicon Valley during the .com bust and I can tell you that the first department to cut their budget in an organization is marketing. We knew we were in a recession/local depression long before anyone else.
Companies whose revenue comes primarily from venture capital may have certain requirements for promotion, as some investors want to see promotion for promotion's sake, vs. requiring an actual ROI on promotion efforts. Network out to some of your non-tech co-workers and vendors in the marketing arena. When they start to see a lot of companies holding back on hiring new positions, reducing trade show attendance and other marketing expenses, evaluate your current options. It may be that you have an opportunity to seek safety in a lower paying, but far more secure position in your current firm or a different firm. Management is often very insecure.
I can tell you that the nearly instantaneous elimination in the number of commuters in 2000/2001 here was mind-blowing. I knew if a prospect was worth pursuing by the evaluating the size of a building and how empty it's parking lot was. This all happens much faster than most people realize, so having a canary to tell you what is about to come is very important. It may be that you are in a very secure company, but they decided to purchase some large asset or make some other large investment that offsetting the cost due to reduced revenue requires those positions and even whole departments considered secure to be temporarily eliminated.
Companies whose primary revenue comes from advertising will see some of the largest reductions in revenue. Stay away from them unless they are incredibly well established and you have a seriously critical position.
I once took an excursion to Reddit, and later HN. Unlimited up/down voting sucks when dealing with a hive-mind.
There is no avoiding the boom/bust cycle. Ride the boom, extract all you can, be frugal. When the bust comes, use your cushion to ride it out.
It is true that not everybody gets laid off in the bust. It is also true that smart, diligent and hardworking people are let go like everybody else. Don't plan to keep your job. Plan to have a nice vacation if you must.
I practice what I preach. Made big bucks during the dot com boom. When the money dried up, I went home to build an airplane while other people were loosing everything and moving back in w/their parents.
I am doing it again.
Oh, and one final thing: strong engineers are welcome everywhere, managers not so much.
When a bubble bursts some industries will get hurt worse than others. Tech is really in just about all industries now and will be impacted but there are enough shortages that if you are good at your job in one industry you should be able to transition to another. The best things you can do to prepare for a bubble bursting is to have a financial cushion in case finding the next job takes some time and minimize your non-job related commitments. For example, if you think a bubble is coming make sure you can afford a pay cut if you do lose your job and have to take a lower paying one. Hold off on buying a house since if your region were hit hard it makes it more difficult to move to one that wasn't. Minimize your debt. Things like that.
I don't need to work this decade, so a few months without a job won't hurt me.
Get that out of your head. Being unemployed means being "no good". Unemployed == unemployable. There is this whole attitude that if 'he's any good, he'd have a job' mentality that is rampant in our economy; meaning, employers actively discriminate against unemployed people - especially in tech.
Secure software development is something I've gotten into recently, and the growth potential there is excellent. Become familiar with BSIMM (Build Security In Maturity Model), in particular what they categorize as the SSG (Software Security Group). Here are some highlights from their document about the SSG:
The best SSG members are software security people, but software security people are often impossible to find. If you must create software security types from scratch, start with developers and teach them about security. Do not attempt to start with network security people and teach them about software, compilers, SDLCs, bug tracking, and everything else in the software universe. No amount of traditional security knowledge can overcome software cluelessness.
In the startup world right now, there's a lot of evidence of a bubble in privately funded companies, but less of one in the public markets. But there are two differences between now and the .com bubble. Specifically:
- most companies have real cash flows this time
- investors are smarter
As valuations have gone up, investors have started transferring risk back to the founders and employees with things like liquidation preferences. What that means is that if you take funding at some ridiculous valuation, you'll need to exit at an even higher valuation to actually make money as a founder or employee. But there doesn't seem to be the same appetite for these high valuations in the public markets right now.
The upshot is this: take more cash than options right now. There's a good chance your options will be worthless at this point. If you want equity, ask for actual shares instead.
As for worst cases, you'll likely see weaker companies fail and stronger companies reduce headcount to better manage costs.
Have no debt, and have no rent/mortgage payment. Make sure your vehicle is in good working order. Make sure you've got any health issues taken care of.
Basically the Boy Scout motto: Be Prepared.
Prudence requires you to be prepared for a certain amount of uncertainty, regardless of the economy. Budget carefully. Pay off your debts as quickly as you can. Keep at least 3 to 6 months of expenses in readily accessible savings. If you’re worried about your job disappearing (which it can at any time), then build up a good in-person social network.
Don’t forget natural disasters, too. A lot of tech jobs are in places with earthquakes (West Coast) or hurricanes (East Coast). Create disaster plans, and maintain enough water and food (test if it’s palatable) to live 3 to 7 days without resupply. Maybe more, depending on how long it takes to rebuild infrastructure where you live. And keep and learn the appropriate tools to keep your house working for that time.
But don’t get carried away, unless you want to make worrying into your hobby. During the last dot-com boom and bust, some people I know were calling for everybody to buy guns and prepare for the People’s Liberation Army to invade California or for the Red Army to drop a nuke on San Francisco. 15 years later, we’re in another tech boom, and I’m still hearing the same doomsday predictions. In truth, the land can’t support all of us as if we were 19th Century pioneers, so I think it’s best to prepare for reasonable disasters.
Have a nice time.
Ride the most extreme excesses of the bubble you can, pulling in ridiculous amounts of cash and equity. Convert it to reasonably safe (e.g. money markets) and counter-market (e.g. gold) investments. When the bubble pops, don't worry about being laid off: take some time off and live off your reserves. And invest some of them in those tech firms which have a solid business but whose stock prices were brought down in the general crash, to set you up for the recovery (or next bubble.)
Save your money, back up with supplies, gather and plan with like minded friends and family.
My personal prediction is that within 2 years 40 million people in the OECD region alone will be out of work, if something like the immigration "reform" in TISA passes...
It's going to be ugly.
"If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
I spent over 30 years specializing in relational database projects for Fortune 100 companies and government agencies. Ingres, Oracle, Postgres, System R, Sybase, M$ SQL Server, DB2 or whatever they call their products now; I didn't discriminate and worked on energy, telecom, finance, and manufacturing projects and my employers didn't give a hoot about my prior industry. It was all applied set theory to me and I always got offers after the overwhelming majority of my technical interviews.
I passed into the three figure per hour realm decades ago and never suffered from lack of work during downturns in the early eighties, 1991, 2001, 2008 or what have you. I took long vacations, socked away scads of dough, and don't work anymore because I invest when I'm not at the beach.
There are still tons of jobs out there for people who understand how set theory and ACID transactions are implemented in databases.
As long as your IQ is a minimum of 130 you shouldn't have any trouble finding work. Just stay away from fads like particular languages and anything that reeks of agile development or use cases and you will be fine. DBA's always have the final say on how crackpot developers will actually store permanent data despite whatever moronic methodology du jour the developers think they are using.
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The thing I find amusing is how many people dream of days that never existed, when you could find a job at the drop of a hat. The people who found jobs were those who put as much work into their job hunt as they did actually working.
I spent most of my career consulting. That meant keeping my ear to the ground, paying attention to rumours and meetings, and starting my job search before the shit hit the fan, refusing the three month renewals that inevitably came up near the end of a contract (instead of the usual six-twelve month contracts that those jobs started with.)
Three months isn't a contract -- it's an insult. It's the writing on the wall that the project is almost over, and they want you to hang around to finish off the bits and pieces. As a contractor, you're under no obligation to take such a short contract, and if you do, you should do so knowing that it's going to be the last extension for the project.
Despite those early searches, I sometimes went a month or two without work, living off my savings, and having to move hundreds or thousands of miles to the next job. One key thing I learned fairly early is not to be too greedy about my rates. If a company is willing to pay $100+ rates in the '90s, they expect you to work miracles that no human being can possibly deliver on. It's just not worth the stress. Take the lower paying fun and challenging job instead -- your blood pressure will thank you for it.
I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
When fuckedcompany.com switches back on, you know it's over.
Table-ized A.I.
You survive a tech bubble the same way with a lumber bubble, or an oil bubble, or a tourism bubble. You diversify your investments, and insure yourself against losses and unexpected events. Instead of relying on the government or a severance package, keep 6 months of living expenses stored up in an emergency fund in case you get laid off. Invest your income into a diversified portfolio, using something like Vanguard. Have adequate insurance on your property and health.
As far as the meat of your question with regards to what path to take in your career to somehow minimize the damage a tech bubble can do to you, I think this is something you can't really plan for in this regard. Focus on doing the best job you can at the subfields that interest you in your career. Gain reputation for doing good work. Excellence is always rewarded in the long run.
"I just reached a senior level in a tech career and I've been doing pretty much a bit of everything, e.g. software architecture, full stack dev, eng. related specific dev, consultancy, etc .. Based on your experience of the .com collapse and your predictions for the current market, is there any path you wouldn't recommend (or strongly recommend)"
You'll be forever playing catch-up, your best career route is to go into teaching or become a tech journalist.
I wouldn't agree with that. A lot of the low numbered Slashdot members have been here since the 90's, and have probably seen their share of failed tech startups.
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Get into robotics, especially any of the companies working on space-bound robotics. There's several companies designing and testing robots right now for space missions that aren't currently feasible for humans to do. There's going to be a need for all sorts of software engineers and other IT specialists for this industry.
(Also because so many industries are heading towards automation, it's good to get in on the ground floor, so to speak, especially in one that is going to do nothing but grow.)
@Mindless Drivel: 100% of Twitter posts ever Tweeted.
How do you know it's a bubble? Have created a bubble before?
I retired in my 30's and now travel the world.
If it was that simple everyone would do it. But I'm forgetting, like everyone else on slashdot you're a unique genius.
To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
Don’t forget natural disasters, too. A lot of tech jobs are in places with earthquakes (West Coast) or hurricanes (East Coast). Create disaster plans, and maintain enough water and food (test if it’s palatable) to live 3 to 7 days without resupply. Maybe more, depending on how long it takes to rebuild infrastructure where you live. And keep and learn the appropriate tools to keep your house working for that time.
A better alternative is to live somewhere sensible, like Belgium.
To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
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Idea: software dev / sys admin for Biomed. How old are you? When baby boomers stop forcing the healthcare industry bubble further up, do you still need a job? Also, maybe see a financial adviser, read some Forbes or Wall Street Journal; maybe you'll retire sooner; and if you hit the lottery, you don't want to know our answers to your question. Am I right or am I right?