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Ask Slashdot: How to Avoid The Worst of a Tech Bubble?
An anonymous reader writes: I just reached a senior level in a tech career and I've been doing pretty much a bit of everything, e.g. software architecture, full stack dev, eng. related specific dev, consultancy, etc. So I'm at a point where I want to start focusing on something that has a good development path, i.e. I won't struggle finding a job, it'll be fairly paid and it'll allow me to move up in responsibility (bigger teams, more difficult projects) if I want to. It seems like we might be heading into a new tech bubble. Based on your experience of the .com collapse and your predictions for the current market, is there any path you wouldn't recommend (or strongly recommend) if this bubble goes pop? What were the roles most affected when the .com bubble burst back in 2000 and would it be any different this time? Is there anything you can do to be better prepared, such as focusing on broader techs rather than niche techs, etc.
Works on bubbles, vacuums, what have you.
Remember, plumbing is at the heart of civilization - the Romans figured that out for us. Without plumbing, we would be up shit creek.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
Don't be inside the bubble when it burst.
Get free satoshi (Bitcoin) and Dogecoins
The bubble isn't really tech. Its some aspect of tech. Just like the .com bust was caused by too much money in startups without legitamate ways of raising revenue and the 2008 collapse wasn't a banking collapse, it was a ssubprime mortgage collapse. Figure out what the cause will be, and find a company that is not in that subfield and has minimal reliance on it. This won't allow 100% avoidance, but will limit your exposure.
FWIW I expect the eventual burst to be due to an advertising collapse- someone has to actually sell something at some point. Established companies that sell physical goods should be immune, firmware would be a good call.
Also, the best way to be bubble immune- cash in the bank, so you can ride it out. I don't need to work this decade, so a few months without a job won't hurt me.
I still have more fans than freaks. WTF is wrong with you people?
You are looking for a job that requires skills and qualifications as a barrier to entry and that does not depend on discretionary spending by the client. Your choices boil down to 'undertaker' or 'COBOL maintenance'. C.
Do some due diligence and make sure the company you work for has solid sales and real profits.
I rode out the first collapse in oil and gas. Right now healthcare looks promising esp. with the push to records automation. Do some research to which industry would be least affected and then move on.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
There's a lot of companies that shouldn't exist, or some that are artificially inflated. The demand for engineers is absurd, so companies, even the big ones, are hiring countless pseudo-engineers with little experience, no degrees (not that you can't be good without one, but it sure as hell doesn't hurt... I myself am doing fine without), or just bad.
They don't get fired because companies want every hands they can get.
When things get back to reasonable levels, those people will be without jobs. Just be better than them and you'll be fine.
I survived the bust than happened right at the end of the Clinton administration/beginning of the Bush administration by being in my field in an unrelated industry. I did I.T. work at an oil company, the burst didn't touch me at all - initially. Until the oil industry took a major hit, and the I.T. industry hadn't recovered yet, but at least I got a well past the burst before I was thrown into the fray.
Now that the I.T. industry is stronger and isn't exactly in a bubble, I'm still shielded by working for another industry. In fact a bit of an I.T. field bust can actually benefit my particular place in the industry as it forces vendors to beg for my business and cut better deals, and if I need to hire project help from the pool to select from is better stocked versus when the industry is thriving. Yes, that's cold and pragmatic, but it doesn't stop it from being a fact.
On the other hand if the I.T. industry is thriving (I really miss those days) I have an easier time jumping ship and going to something better.
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Work in a recession resistant industry
But these are prime candidates for reorganization and cost cutting moves. And then there goes your job. Particularly in industries with mature (lower growth) markets. The only way to increase profits is to cut costs. And frequently the only way to cut costs is to cut direct expenses (payroll) and send the work overseas.
Have gnu, will travel.
"The only constant is change" -- the late Robert Monroe
There are no guarantees any tech is stable. That's the relative nature of tech -- it constantly changes (for better or worse).
All you can do is stay current. If you want value then you be valuable. This means keeping up-to-date with popular skills. Fads such as some programming languages and management styles come and go, but good design, critical thinking, and communication are always relevant.
If you truly want a "recession proof" job then work in real-estate or the military.
I was selling trade show exhibits in Silicon Valley during the .com bust and I can tell you that the first department to cut their budget in an organization is marketing. We knew we were in a recession/local depression long before anyone else.
Companies whose revenue comes primarily from venture capital may have certain requirements for promotion, as some investors want to see promotion for promotion's sake, vs. requiring an actual ROI on promotion efforts. Network out to some of your non-tech co-workers and vendors in the marketing arena. When they start to see a lot of companies holding back on hiring new positions, reducing trade show attendance and other marketing expenses, evaluate your current options. It may be that you have an opportunity to seek safety in a lower paying, but far more secure position in your current firm or a different firm. Management is often very insecure.
I can tell you that the nearly instantaneous elimination in the number of commuters in 2000/2001 here was mind-blowing. I knew if a prospect was worth pursuing by the evaluating the size of a building and how empty it's parking lot was. This all happens much faster than most people realize, so having a canary to tell you what is about to come is very important. It may be that you are in a very secure company, but they decided to purchase some large asset or make some other large investment that offsetting the cost due to reduced revenue requires those positions and even whole departments considered secure to be temporarily eliminated.
Companies whose primary revenue comes from advertising will see some of the largest reductions in revenue. Stay away from them unless they are incredibly well established and you have a seriously critical position.
I once took an excursion to Reddit, and later HN. Unlimited up/down voting sucks when dealing with a hive-mind.
There is no avoiding the boom/bust cycle. Ride the boom, extract all you can, be frugal. When the bust comes, use your cushion to ride it out.
It is true that not everybody gets laid off in the bust. It is also true that smart, diligent and hardworking people are let go like everybody else. Don't plan to keep your job. Plan to have a nice vacation if you must.
I practice what I preach. Made big bucks during the dot com boom. When the money dried up, I went home to build an airplane while other people were loosing everything and moving back in w/their parents.
I am doing it again.
Oh, and one final thing: strong engineers are welcome everywhere, managers not so much.
Prudence requires you to be prepared for a certain amount of uncertainty, regardless of the economy. Budget carefully. Pay off your debts as quickly as you can. Keep at least 3 to 6 months of expenses in readily accessible savings. If you’re worried about your job disappearing (which it can at any time), then build up a good in-person social network.
Don’t forget natural disasters, too. A lot of tech jobs are in places with earthquakes (West Coast) or hurricanes (East Coast). Create disaster plans, and maintain enough water and food (test if it’s palatable) to live 3 to 7 days without resupply. Maybe more, depending on how long it takes to rebuild infrastructure where you live. And keep and learn the appropriate tools to keep your house working for that time.
But don’t get carried away, unless you want to make worrying into your hobby. During the last dot-com boom and bust, some people I know were calling for everybody to buy guns and prepare for the People’s Liberation Army to invade California or for the Red Army to drop a nuke on San Francisco. 15 years later, we’re in another tech boom, and I’m still hearing the same doomsday predictions. In truth, the land can’t support all of us as if we were 19th Century pioneers, so I think it’s best to prepare for reasonable disasters.
Have a nice time.
Still that won't help if the company you are working for goes out of business.
Other things.
5) Don't burn bridges: try to avoid making enemies. A bad reputation can hurt. Rumors, can spread. That guy who you hated and never gotten along with, may be the same guy who you will need to give you a decent review.
6) Know your industry: Chances are most Technology professionals are not in the technology industry. We can be in Healthcare, Manufacturing, Retail, Government, NGO, Finance... A pop in the tech bubble doesn't mean your job will pop. If you have a good foot hold in one particular industry, use that to your advantage. Sure due to the collapse you can get cheap programmers, but do they know the industry as well as you do.
7) Industry diversification: Try to have a fall back industry you can go back on. The thing about economic bubbles is they don't know the difference between a bubble and a strong growth sector until it pops. Know how to translate your skill to other industries, try to keep up with what other industries are doing.
8) Keep an eye on your companies culture. Especially in smaller organizations changes in your bosses behavior is a good sign that something is up. Normally these guys are A+ Personalities who love to talk, then you find them being quite and reserved. You find that they are pushing harder then normal, for unknown reasons. Or finding ways to save money that seems to be more nitpicking.... That may be a good sign to polish your resume and start interviewing. Even if you don't think you will be targeted, because you are the star worker. Being the last one standing after layoffs really suck.
9) Don't be in the same position and don't be a job hopper. You normally should be getting some sort of promotion (either in title or by compensation greater then normal companies salary adjustments) within every 3-6 years. Anything less then that, a company will be afraid to invest in you. Too much more Then it looks like you are happy with a dead end job. You can work at the same company for many years longer... But you will need to show growth in the career, promotions are one way. Or at least you can explain the change in your work, more then just changing technology.
10) Avoid being a hater: Keep your anti-windows or your how ethically wrong closed source to yourself, or at least professionally, even if you are working in a position where you are using Linux and making Open source tools. By hating something, you have closed your life off from a different path. Some people will negatively call it being a a sell out, But you really should keep in mind how fixed and important your beliefs are. We care for a lot of things... However we don't care about all things equally. Say your work does a lot of good, however you need to use Windows... Does the face the Operating System that you are using that you dislike is equally or greater in its badness that it counteracts all the good that your job does?
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
I've avoided being the Peter one so far, one of the reasons why I'm still a coder and not a manager :)
I still have more fans than freaks. WTF is wrong with you people?
The thing I find amusing is how many people dream of days that never existed, when you could find a job at the drop of a hat. The people who found jobs were those who put as much work into their job hunt as they did actually working.
I spent most of my career consulting. That meant keeping my ear to the ground, paying attention to rumours and meetings, and starting my job search before the shit hit the fan, refusing the three month renewals that inevitably came up near the end of a contract (instead of the usual six-twelve month contracts that those jobs started with.)
Three months isn't a contract -- it's an insult. It's the writing on the wall that the project is almost over, and they want you to hang around to finish off the bits and pieces. As a contractor, you're under no obligation to take such a short contract, and if you do, you should do so knowing that it's going to be the last extension for the project.
Despite those early searches, I sometimes went a month or two without work, living off my savings, and having to move hundreds or thousands of miles to the next job. One key thing I learned fairly early is not to be too greedy about my rates. If a company is willing to pay $100+ rates in the '90s, they expect you to work miracles that no human being can possibly deliver on. It's just not worth the stress. Take the lower paying fun and challenging job instead -- your blood pressure will thank you for it.
I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
When fuckedcompany.com switches back on, you know it's over.
Table-ized A.I.