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More Air Force Drones Are Crashing Than Ever As Mysterious New Problems Emerge (washingtonpost.com)

schwit1 points out that a record number of Air Force drones crashed in major accidents last year. Leading the accident count is the Reaper which has seen a number of sudden electrical failures. The Washington Post reports: "A record number of Air Force drones crashed in major accidents last year, documents show, straining the U.S. military's fleet of robotic aircraft when it is in more demand than ever for counterterrorism missions in an expanding array of war zones. Driving the increase was a mysterious surge in mishaps involving the Air Force's newest and most advanced 'hunter-killer' drone, the Reaper, which has become the Pentagon's favored weapon for conducting surveillance and airstrikes against the Islamic State, al-Qaeda and other militant groups. The Reaper has been bedeviled by a rash of sudden electrical failures that have caused the 21/2-ton drone to lose power and drop from the sky, according to accident-investigation documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act. Investigators have traced the problem to a faulty starter-generator,but have been unable to pinpoint why it goes haywire or devise a permanent fix.

32 of 141 comments (clear)

  1. It's not surprising by phantomfive · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Defense contractors focus on process rather than getting good people, and over time, the good people leave. The Raytheon et al don't care, they just put more restrictive processes in place.

    It won't help, if you don't have good people, you won't have good products, no matter how good your processes are.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    1. Re:It's not surprising by Locke2005 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Business schools teach that employees are fungible assets, i.e. interchangeable parts, so the only things that matter are things that can be tracked on spreadsheets -- like process. The fact that people matter is quickly becoming forgotten in the quest for maximizing quarterly return on investment.

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    2. Re:It's not surprising by phantomfive · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There is some truth to the idea......you don't want your entire company dependent on a single person (bus factor).

      When I write code, I try to write it in a way that someone else can easily follow me. But if you hire incompetent people, you'll get incompetent results, and your drones will crash. You can buy them faster computers or tell them to use more unit tests, but if they're incompetent, their unit tests will be incompetent, too. The focus needs to be on people, not process.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:It's not surprising by Thelasko · · Score: 2

      The fact that people matter is quickly becoming forgotten in the quest for maximizing quarterly return on investment.

      That was forgotten long ago! It's in a graveyard next to research and development funding.

      The only place you will find those are startups with passionate leadership. Once Wall Street gets involved, it's all over.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    4. Re:It's not surprising by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sadly, business schools are full of morons with no real fucking understanding of the businesses they claim to know how to run.

      An MBA used to be an engineer who went back to school to learn to be a manager.

      Someone who get a business degree and then an MBA? They're a useless idiot, with no real world understanding, and the mistaken belief they know how to run things.

      I've met a few of those ... and they definitely fall into the category of if you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

      How people got hoodwinked into believing these idiots on anything defies any rational explanation.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    5. Re:It's not surprising by EEPROMS · · Score: 2

      when anyone mentions MBA's it reminds me of the ABC Australia Background Briefing podcast about how an MBA has no real relationship to good management. So much so many large innovative companies now view an MBA as a bit of a joke.

      Podcast
      http://canadapodcasts.ca/podca...
      Transcript
      http://www.abc.net.au/radionat...

    6. Re:It's not surprising by Jack+Griffin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Defense contractors focus on process rather than getting good people, and over time, the good people leave.

      This is all of government, and it has to be that way because you are spending public money. You can always say, but hey Bill Gates or Steve Jobs didn't care about process and look what they achieved. But then neither did Kenny Lay, Bernard Ebbers, Dick Fuld, Bernie Madoff etc etc. and when it comes to the integrity of your nation, it's better to plod along at moderate pace and survive, than to fly and possibly crash and burn.

    7. Re:It's not surprising by KGIII · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Way back, about 8 years ago, I didn't depend on any one employee. I depended on all of them. I don't even like calling them employees as we worked together.

      Of course, we were somewhere around 220 people, as I recall. We had no HR. I was just as likely to help the cleaning crew as not. I didn't hire them to do work I couldn't do - I hired them to do things quicker and better than I could. Strangely enough, it worked. I do notice a trend in "programmers" as of late. I do not like it. I do not like it one bit.

      Don't let this go to your head but, let's say I've lots and lots of experience at this. You? You're a good programmer (or could be, but I'm pretty sure you program in C, C++, Java, and probably a bit of bash, Perl, and Python. - Just guesses based on previous comments.)

      How can I tell you're a good programmer? The way you approach your "arguments" or "statements" online. There have been times I've wanted to disagree with you 'cause you almost certainly reached the wrong conclusion BUT I'll be damned if I can find the flaw in your logic - and I was on the MIT debate team.

      I'd have hired you. I'm sure you'd have been up to full speed in six months with a mentor for just the first two and then just using the mentor when you got stuck. We had a very large and very complex code base that actually had to be adjusted, as well as adjusting the models, for each and every situation - but we could save pre-sets.

      So, don't let it got to your head. And, in traditional Slashdot style, "Go piss up a rope!" ;-)

      By the way, there's a huge difference between those who call themselves programmers today and those people I hired back from 1991 to 2005. (I needed no new programmers after 2005 but sold in 2007 and finalized the sale almost exactly eight years ago, today. I don't know what the difference is and I'm going to use a favorite quote of mine - it's nearly verbatim and might be verbatim. (Consider, I was paying 120k to start for qualified people, slightly less for training - I even sent some to school.)

      Anyhow, the quote: "Code comments go in the code, not on a coffee soaked index card on your desk, asshole."

      I think the guy had been employed with us for maybe two weeks when he said that. I also imagine most would have fired him on the spot. I brought him into the office, pulled the code, and sat there and documented it with him - and learned a lot. We're still in touch today and he has no reason to work (I made sure to share the wealth when I sold) but he seems to like the job.

      I'd rather not disclose how much I sold for, it requires some explaining, so feel free to email. The missus says I can have a laptop in the bedroom so long as I behave myself and get some sleep.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    8. Re:It's not surprising by Jack+Griffin · · Score: 2

      Right, I'm not saying we should get rid of process......rather, that process is less important than people. You need to focus on making sure your people are good: you can't expect the processes to make up for that.

      But that's what I was trying to say, you can't make the people more important.
      The same process that prevents corruption also prevents talent. The best you can hope for is mediocrity (which is actually fine once you accept the risks involved)

    9. Re:It's not surprising by lhowaf · · Score: 2

      It's great to read posts by and about technologists with character, humor, intelligence and mettle. I hope your example isn't lost on those following in your footsteps.

    10. Re:It's not surprising by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      Business schools teach that employees are fungible assets

      No. Crap Business schools teach that. Or people who attend only half of the lectures of good business schools think that.

      Real business schools teach that there's no right way to run a business. They teach that you can create an enterprise by creating a production line, or by tying an entire product to a single worker, that you can build a business with high level of expertise, or that you can proceduralise everything and make people interchangeable.

      Anyone who got to the end of a business school thinking that there's one correct answer such as "employees are fungible" should have spent more time at school.

  2. Once is Happenstance by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Twice is coincidence. Three times, it's enemy action.

    1. Re:Once is Happenstance by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2

      Investigators have traced the problem to a faulty starter-generator

      I.e. a big fucking coil, the exact kind of thing an EMP wants to whomp on, even with military hardening against it.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    2. Re:Once is Happenstance by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

      Twice is coincidence. Three times, it's enemy action.

      We have met the enemy, and he is us.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    3. Re:Once is Happenstance by segedunum · · Score: 2

      The Russians have invested heavily in electronic warfare and jamming systems, and they have said relatively little about them. I for one would be very uneasy as to how networked and full of electronics western military hardware is. Drones have already been GPS hijacked. Heck, western ships have ethernet LANs on them and Microsoft has been developing Windows for Submarines. Crazy.

    4. Re:Once is Happenstance by Locke2005 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Supposedly, Russian MiGS are using tube radar equipment, not because they are behind the times, but because they are much more resistant to EMP. So yes, I'm sure Russians have explored the use of electromagnetic pulses as a battle tactic.

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    5. Re: Once is Happenstance by mSparks43 · · Score: 2

      Exactly my thought.

      It's thoughtcrime tho.

      Thinking the ruskies can make the entire US drone fleet worthless if they wanted is punishable by death.

      All it needs is some more tinfoil.

  3. Not that hard to figure out... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny
    Air Force Academy is in Colorado,
    Colorado legalizes Marijuana,
    Drones crash.

    Doah!

    1. Re:Not that hard to figure out... by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      Then take LSD and they will fly again (along with everything else)

  4. Seems like the same old tech problem by Locke2005 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Every time you ramp production of tech way up, quality control suffers, as you have to bring in new, inexperienced technicians to meet production deadlines. It's no secret that Obama has greatly increased the use of drones over his predecessor, so obviously production demands have gone way up, to the point where the Air Force doesn't have enough pilots and the few pilots they have are working 80 hour weeks.

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  5. Obnoxious use of fractions and tons by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What is "21/2-ton" supposed to mean? 10.5 tons? 2.5 tons? And what "ton" are we talking about, 1000 kg or some other bullshit definition based on pounds?

    1. Re:Obnoxious use of fractions and tons by fustakrakich · · Score: 2, Funny

      Oy! And to think... 2½

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  6. Re:maybe Chinese state espionage? by Locke2005 · · Score: 2

    Theft is much easier than deliberately introducing flaws. Any changes would have to be made via carefully controlled ECRs (Engineering Change Requests). Flaws are much more likely the result of quality going down in an attempt to meet overoptimistic production schedules, rather than as the result of deliberate sabotage.

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  7. The rushed gap between pilots and AI by AHuxley · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Lack of awake pilots for the distances and hours? Lack of classic jet designs ready for the role of 24/7 leadership decapitation? AI drones not ready yet?
    Contractors sold the US a complex prototype drone system that got more and more upgraded but what was offered was still not ready for the role.
    Years later the basic issues cant be hidden from the press. The electrical failures would point to having to find savings and a lack of good long term design.
    Ready for the sale pitch and fly by, long term its going to be replaced soon was seen as mission ready. US policy stretched that time line out too far and now the issues creep in.

    Or wait for the new cover story other nations can spoof the connections and GPS globally and are gliding the drones down at will. The very mysterious talking points.
    The drones need an expensive new encryption upgrade and will be just fine again.

    --
    Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
  8. Re:Hm by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2

    Sounds like they're manufactured in China.

    It does sound surprising like the DJI Phantom's propensity to fall out of the sky. I thought the military stuff would be better than Chinese toys but perhaps not.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  9. Predictable, Really by Freshly+Exhumed · · Score: 4, Funny

    Thisi is what happens when you plunder alien technology from their crashed vehicles without understanding the underlying theories and principles before grafting it onto our own.

    --
    I deny that I have not avoided attaining the opposite of that which I do not want.
    1. Re:Predictable, Really by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Perhaps we should have plundered the alien tech from the vehicles that didn't crash.

  10. Re:However... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The enemies in this case are those fleecing the US taxpayers to fill our armed forces with halfassed shoddy crap.

    Sure, there might be a thin veneer of deniability, a "we couldn't possibly have known, it was a rogue engineer" of Volkswagen proportions, but all these things are vetted from the very top, and tested and retested endlessly. So long as the percentage of 'duds' doesn't break certain limits beyond which the complicity would become too obvious, there will continue to be tragic little whoopsies.

    When you've got the market cornered and employees in charge of awarding you contracts, every crash is just another new sale anyways.

  11. Steady Losses by godel_56 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Actually looking at the graphs in TFA, the total losses have been pretty steady for the last five years, just proportionally more in the Air Force in 2015, as opposed to the other services.

  12. Just bad parts by randomErr · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The issue is that we're on generation 3 and 4 of these air crafts. From what I hear a lot of the original systems have been re-engineered to be lighter, more power efficient, and easier to source parts for. But in the process the design, especially main controller, has cut corners. They now have thinner leads on the boards that can't take extreme temperatures or electrical interference caused by extreme loads on straining motors. Also they're taking these units on longer mission in more extreme conditions putting more stress on the machines.

    --
    You say things that offend me and I can deal with it. Can you?
  13. Re:weighs how much? by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2

    2 1/2 ton is old army lingo from deuce and half trucks, the first trucks we sent lend lease to Russia when the Germans attacked them during WW II and our lines were about to collapse.

    So, people like to use it for things.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  14. New drones or older drones? by ArylAkamov · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If this is confined to newer drones, I'd bet that a bean counter somewhere decided they could cut costs by putting in a 90 amp alternator instead of a 130 amp alternator.