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Elon Musk: 'One In Billions' Chance We're Not Living In A Computer Simulation (vox.com)

An anonymous reader writes: At Recode's annual Code Conference, Elon Musk explained how we are almost certainly living in a more advanced civilization's video game. He said: "The strongest argument for us being in a simulation probably is the following. Forty years ago we had pong. Like, two rectangles and a dot. That was what games were. Now, 40 years later, we have photorealistic, 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously, and it's getting better every year. Soon we'll have virtual reality, augmented reality. If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then the games will become indistinguishable from reality, even if that rate of advancement drops by a thousand from what it is now. Then you just say, okay, let's imagine it's 10,000 years in the future, which is nothing on the evolutionary scale. So given that we're clearly on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality, and those games could be played on any set-top box or on a PC or whatever, and there would probably be billions of such computers or set-top boxes, it would seem to follow that the odds that we're in base reality is one in billions. Tell me what's wrong with that argument. Is there a flaw in that argument?" You can watch Elon Musk's full interview on YouTube.

17 of 951 comments (clear)

  1. Major flaw in the argument by invictusvoyd · · Score: 4, Funny

    10000 years later there will still be linux users and they will still be playing pong and tetris and having one windows box hidden somewhere offline just , just for "gaming".

    1. Re:Major flaw in the argument by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 4, Funny

      10000 years later there will still be linux users and they will still be playing pong and tetris and having one windows box hidden somewhere offline just , just for "gaming".

      The descendant corporation of Microsoft will pushing out a recommended update to "upgrade" to Windows 10,000.

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    2. Re:Major flaw in the argument by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 4, Funny

      Maybe GNU Hurd will be ready for prime time by then.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
  2. Dear Game Designers of My Reality by mfh · · Score: 3, Funny

    Fuck you for all the pain and suffering, cunts.

    --
    The dangers of knowledge trigger emotional distress in human beings.
  3. Re:"Is there a flaw in that argument?" by Capsaicin · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... where did the uber-advanced civilization come from which created our Universe?

    You're very clever Nutria, but it's simulations all the way down.

    --
    Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
  4. Re:Energy Use by PIBM · · Score: 3, Funny

    At that point, the best way to simulate it might be to simply build a planet and boot it with the startup condition required to find the answer that you seek...

  5. Obligatory comic by Raenex · · Score: 4, Funny
  6. Re:Slashdot itself by ChunderDownunder · · Score: 4, Funny

    Has anyone ever noticed that Elon is an anagram of "Neo L" ?

    Surely that's a clue that we're living in a matrix.

  7. Here is a better title: by bistromath007 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Elon Musk Gets Totally Baked, Flouts Thermodynamics in Attempt to Philosophically Construct Secular Afterlife

    I mean, I don't even think he's completely wrong, but holy shit the way he's saying this makes it clear he was toasted.

  8. Re:Scientology not Science by Dashiva+Dan · · Score: 5, Funny

    Without ANY bugs? Really? The only way this idea works is if you have a divine programmer who cannot make any mistakes who created the universe. This is more like scientology than science.

    If my life has been a software simulation let me assure you, there's a LOT of bugs.

    --
    "lt;dr" is the correct response to most of my posts.
  9. Re:Just Solipsism and Faith-Based Nonsense by freeze128 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Occam's razor suggests that Elon Musk is just trolling us.

  10. Re:Scientology not Science by religionofpeas · · Score: 4, Funny

    Without ANY bugs? Really?

    You've never lost your keys and then found them later in a place you were certain you've looked ?

  11. Re:Religious equivalence by Opportunist · · Score: 3, Funny

    So "Jesus saves" now means he's the guy in charge of backups?

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  12. Re:Senile? by MitchDev · · Score: 1, Funny

    Way past senile into "Batshit Carzy" territory...

  13. Re:Scientology not Science by NickFortune · · Score: 5, Funny

    Without ANY bugs? Really? The only way this idea works is if you have a divine programmer who cannot make any mistakes who created the universe

    Reminds me of one of my favourites from /usr/games/fortune


            "Yo, Mike!"
            "Yeah, Gabe?"
            "We got a problem down on Earth. In Utah."
            "I thought you fixed that last century!"
            "No, no, not that. Someone's found a security problem in the physics program. They're getting energy out of nowhere."
            "Blessit! Lemme look... Hey, it's there all right! OK, just a sec... There, that ought to patch it. Dist it out, wouldja?"
                    -- Cold Fusion, 1989

    --
    Don't let THEM immanentize the Eschaton!
  14. Re:Meanwhile by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Of course somebody had to go and Godwinson the thread.

  15. Re: Senile? by avgjoe62 · · Score: 4, Funny

    "...a bearded man sitting on a cloud."

    But the Woz hates clouds.

    At least we know that the bearded man, whoever he/she is, isn't George R. R. Martin or else we'd all be dead by now...

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    How come Slashdot never gets Slashdotted?