Climate Change Rate To Turn Southern Spain To Desert By 2100, Report Warns (theguardian.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: Southern Spain will be reduced to desert by the end of the century if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, researchers have warned. Anything less than extremely ambitious and politically unlikely carbon emissions cuts will see ecosystems in the Mediterranean change to a state unprecedented in the past 10 millennia, they said. The study, published in the journal Science, modeled what would happen to vegetation in the Mediterranean basin under four different paths of future carbon emissions, from a business-as-usual scenario at the worst end to keeping temperature rises below the Paris climate deal target of 1.5C at the other. Temperatures would rise nearly 5C globally under the worst case scenario by 2100, causing deserts to expand northwards across southern Spain and Sicily, and Mediterranean vegetation to replace deciduous forests. Even if emissions are held to the level of pledges put forward ahead of the Paris deal, southern Europe would experience a "substantial" expansion of deserts. The level of change would be beyond anything the region's ecosystems had experienced during the holocene, the geological epoch that started more than 10,000 years ago. The real impact on Mediterranean ecosystems, which are considered a hotspot of biodiversity, could be worse because the study did not look at other human impacts, such as forests being turned over to grow food. The researchers fed a model with 10,000 years of pollen records to build a picture of vegetation in the region, and used that to infer previous temperatures in the Mediterranean. They then ran the model to see what would happen to the vegetation in the future, using four different scenarios of warming, three of them taken from the UN's climate science panel, the IPCC. Only the most stringent cut in emissions -- which is roughly equivalent to meeting the Paris aspiration of holding warming to 1.5C -- would see ecosystems remain within the limits they experienced in the Holocene.

Comments

Not just Southern Spain

[rrohbeck]

Much of the US too: http://web.archive.org/web/200...

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Anonymous Coward]

I've lived on Miami Beach for 30+ years. In the last 6 years or so, when there is heavy rain, the water comes up over the sidewalk and completely floods the streets - **every time**. This never used to happen, and now it's totally predictable. So yeah, shit is happening, and you can observe it yourself if you choose to.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Dutch Gun]

It's important to note that this is a worst-case scenario, which typically means its somewhat improbable. Of course, the worst-case scenario also just so happens to make the best headlines.

I'm not arguing that the climate isn't changing, or that's it's not worthwhile to curb pollutants and emissions. But I fear this constant fear-mongering is damaging climate science credibility as much as it's helping to push forward good environmental policies. This is highly reminiscent of the now laughable doomsday predictions around the time of our first Earth Day in 1970. Among these:

* Civilization Will End Within 15 Or 30 Years
* 100-200 Million People Per Year Will Be Starving To Death During The Next Ten Years
* Population Will Inevitably And Completely Outstrip Whatever Small Increases In Food Supplies We Make
* Demographers Agree Almost Unanimously Thirty Years From Now, The Entire World Will Be In Famine
* In A Decade, Urban Dwellers Will Have To Wear Gas Masks To Survive Air Pollution
* Childbearing [Will Be] A Punishable Crime Against Society, Unless The Parents Hold A Government License
* By The Year 2000 There Won’t Be Any More Crude Oil

There's an interesting article on why most of these dire predictions didn't come to pass, noting some positive outcomes of the increased environmental awareness, like the Clean Water, Clean Air, Endangered Species acts, and other environmental protection laws.

When the experts have been consistently wrong with these constant doomsday predictions for 45 years, is it any wonder that people start to become skeptical of ALL climate and environmental sciences? That's not a good thing.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[rrohbeck]

The area was a desert at the temperature we'll see in 2050. Why do you call that the worst case scenario?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[ArmoredDragon]

That, and it seems like every time you read something written by people who are clinically depressed, they always talk about how people are getting poorer and poorer.

https://ourworldindata.org/gra...

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Dutch Gun]

Because that's what it said in the summary?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[rrohbeck]

I don't see "worst case" in the Times article about Mark Lynas.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Dutch Gun]

I'd imagine many of those same people also still believe the world overpopulation doomsday predictions of the 70's, even though population is demonstrably trending toward peaking at around a very manageable 8.7 billion by 2055, according to recent analysis and predictions. I still encounter people (some here on slashdot) who are seriously worried about the world's population "problem", and pointing them at current trends and predictions seems to do nothing to dissuade them that it's really a non-issue.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Dutch Gun]

In The Guardian link:

The study, published in the journal Science, modelled what would happen to vegetation in the Mediterranean basin under four different paths of future carbon emissions, from a business-as-usual scenario at the worst end to keeping temperature rises below the Paris climate deal target of 1.5C at the other.

Temperatures would rise nearly 5C globally under the worst case scenario by 2100, causing deserts to expand northwards across southern Spain and Sicily, and Mediterranean vegetation to replace deciduous forests.

They ran four different projections, with the worst-case of these projections representing the 5C temperature increase and southern Spain ending up a desert. Unfortunately, the paper is paywalled, so we just have to rely on the summaries.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[ishmaelflood]

and there are no other changes in that time, for instance, another million lazy overfed stupid people moved to Miami and overloaded the drainage system?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[rrohbeck]

Those four scenarios were the four IPCC RCPs. The "worst case" is RCP8.5. We're trending slightly above RCP8.5. The other three include "negative emissions technology" and/or emissions reductions so steep that they would collapse the world economy.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Crashmarik]

Bingo. Every damn square inch of land is built up and overbuilt there. The areas still next to the beaches are fine.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[SirSlud]

It's pretty logical why people over history want to believe the world/society/civilization is ending - it makes a superb excuse for extremely localized personal choices and values.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[locofungus]

It's important to note that this is a worst-case scenario
No. The worst case scenario they considered is "Business as usual".

  which typically means its somewhat improbable

Unfortunately not. It's the most likely scenario. The only positive note is that there doesn't appear to be a concerted effort to increase emissions so it's reasonably to reject scenarios with CO2e increasing faster than BaU (unless you think positive feedbacks for CO2 and CH4 emissions are starting to significantly kick in now)

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Anonymous Coward]

I've inherited some farmland in southern Georgia that is about 16 feet above sea level. Not worth a whole lot. Would love for it to be ocean front property. I burn extra carbon every chance I get.

Screw the rabbits, they can swim for it.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Anonymous Coward]

I've been going to the south of Spain about twice a year for the past 30 years. The whole region is now much greener than is was 30 years ago. Looking back at the photo's you can see that almost all the area is greener now, with the Alpujarra and Sierra Nevada regions being lush with greenery. I suspect the increase in CO2 may be causing this. If so, we need more of it.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Dutch Gun]

So, you agree it's a "worst case" projection, at least in the context of the study, right? Not sure where the disagreement is then. Is my contention that "worst-case" projections are typically not the most likely?

RCP8.5 is, I believe, a somewhat improbable model used to generate these scenarios. For instance, it assumes population growth at the very high end of current projections, rather than the more current and reasonable productions of 8.7 billion peak at the middle of this century. It assumes massive growth in coal-fired power generation, when we're now seeing trends away from that. It assumes a few other negative trends skirting the edge of reasonable probability in order to arrive at that scenario. You need to look a bit deeper than a simple trend line to determine the probability of that trend continuing on its current arc - just as what happened with population curves (which look very alarming several decades ago). The labeling of RCP8.5 of "business as usual" seems a bit off to me, as "business as usual" would have to mean literally reversing trends of pursuing cleaner energy and our clearly slowing population growth.

That's why I call it a "worst-case", because while it's well within what is possible, I don't believe it to be probable. Thus, my contention with the headlines promoting what I feel to be an unlikely future, given current trends and policies. It think it's very valuable to have these sort of reasonably realistic outer edge probability markers, but I think it's a mistake to misrepresent them as often happens in headlines.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Bongo]

Indeed. I once met an environmentalist who worked advising on carbon credits. I asked, what if CO2 isn't a real problem and meanwhile other pollutants are worse? The person replied, "it doesn't matter if CO2 isn't a problem, because by forcing a reduction in CO2, you're forcing a reduction in production, and a reduction in consumption," and then they added with emphasis, "it's about reducing greed."

The whole climate change movement has unfortunately mixed together ethics and science. And used "science" as the "reason" to accept the ethics. You "MUST" cut CO2 and do it in the societal-changing ways we believe in.

So I really am of the opinion that, by using science to push forward a particular ethics, they are damaging science's credibility as a source of OBJECTIVE truths.

Ethics ARE indeed essential, and essential in a different domain: ethics are INTERSUBJECTIVE values. People get together and think about how they want to treat each other. It is subjective (you cannot "prove" that survival of the fittest is a better way to live than trying to help everyone be equal.) Ethical questions are things we reason out as a group, as a society, and so on. So it is inter-subjective whilst science focusses on objective truths.

But the moment you wrap your particular ethical beliefs inside science hypothesis, models, and observations, then anyone who ends up disagreeing with that set of science hypotheses, models, and observations, ends up on the wrong side of the ETHICS, which is why "denialist" is used to mean that that person is NASTY horrible uncaring and funded by some evil interest group.

I personally am all for a progressive humanity and humanism and more ethical living. It is morally ghastly that a human being born today might die in a war zone starving to death, or live a prosperous life, simply by accident of where they happened to be born on this rock. It is morally wrong also, that we don't seem to be able to organise around developing good abundant cleaner sources of energy (not windfarms, I said abundant) and instead are mired in decade-long politics and market crazy games. And, crucially, these are questions about ETHICS. They are not science.

Kennedy even said in his Moon speech that technology has no ethics. We should be able to debate ETHICAL questions as a society and lay them clearly on the table as ETHICAL problems. We should not be trying to wrap ethical questions into "science" and claim the science theory happens to DEMAND the particular ethical view which you or some interest group holds. This whole "we HAVE to act" mantra and that you're a "denialist" if you happen to question their view, is absolute rubbish. And it is damaging the public's view of science.

Separate ethics from science, and allow each to do their own job, by their own methods.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[rrohbeck]

There's currently no indication that the world is deviating from RCP8.5+. Some countries plan to reduce their fossil fuel burning (it's questionable how much will be possible - see Germany) while developing countries pick up every ton of coal they can find. The population curve still looks very alarming to me. 11 billion before the end of the century? Interesting.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Dutch Gun]

It's a non-issue inasmuch as we're easily able to feed all the people on this planet, which was the expected result of a global population explosion. Hunger is primarily caused by politics and corruption these days, not a lack of food - it's essentially a distribution issue. Poverty is a different issue that needs addressing, but isn't intrinsically related to or caused by dense populations.

In other words, it doesn't make you a humanitarian to wring your hands and berate others about issues that have no real consequence. It just makes you an ignorant, self-righteous fool.

Re: Not just Southern Spain

[Dutch Gun]

Look at what happened to the Aral Sea under the Soviets. The sea doesn't really exist anymore! (except as two small pocket remnants)

Sure, we can also look at the horrible pollution in China, or environmental disasters right here at home (thankfully rarer these days). I'm not saying that there aren't real issues. But I think some caution must be employed with proclaiming potential worst-case doomsday scenarios as an expected result. The more often scientists or experts predict the end of the world and it doesn't come to pass, the more people will stop trusting science in the first place, and that seems like a very bad thing to me.

In fact, I think we're already starting to witness this phenomenon, as many, many people believe global warming is a complete hoax. It's a little hard to dissuade them when they can see for themselves that dire predictions made just a decade or two ago have been laughably overstated. Why believe the current predictions then? If earlier predictions had been even slightly more accurate, they'd have no justification in doubting the current science. Trust is earned, and climatologists have done a terrible job at earning that trust with effective predictions so far.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Dog-Cow]

When the human population was at half its current value, the percentage of starving people was probably the same, or higher. And the reasons were the same, too.

Population itself is not the problem, no matter how much of a shit you want to make of yourself.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[idji]

You note these positive outcomes which were about protecting natural resources. The next one we need to do is reduce C02 in the atmosphere. If we don't have this positive outcome then the doomsday scenarios are real, We are already over 400 ppm and it's going up fast. We now live in the Anthropocene - our generation has changed the planet forever - no previous generations did that. The future will not be like the past - our actions will continue to change the planet. and it seems to me that the switch to solar + battery and then using excess energy to decarbonize the atmosphere is the only future I can see actually happening now. I want solar+battery to work, because fracking won't save us, nor do I see nuclear happening. Solar+battery is happening now, and individuals can get involved - we cannot get involved in wind, tides or much geothermal. While the politicians do nothing except stare at polls, we the people are plastering our houses with solar and buy batteries. Then the politicians will eventually step up when they see the people taking action and start consistently demanding national and global action.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[h33t l4x0r]

Perhaps but the population affected by water scarcity was restricted to certain geographic areas. Today, thanks to US climate change denial and energy policy, we can expect it to be a global phenomenon.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[RabidReindeer]

Oceanfront property is overrated. Hurricanes keep knocking down the house and washing out the roads.

Rabbit stew, on the other hand...

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[RabidReindeer]

Because by then Sergio Leone won't be around to film there!

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[gregraven]

And glaciers everywhere, just like in 1904. https://weathernewsblog.wordpr...

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Mr D from 63]

It's important to note that this is a worst-case scenario, .

Further clarification. Its a worst case scenario based on an unproven model.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Mr D from 63]

The 'scenario' is based on a simple yet unproven assumption that a warmer globe means a drier climate in specific localized regions. Yet there is no proof of this or a validated model for this. With our inability to understand the feedback mechanisms in a warmer world that we've not yet witnessed, we might find that precipitation actually increases in some of these regions.

We can be serious about addressing CO2 issues without assuming everything must get worse everywhere as a result. I call general bullshit on the predictions that always say dry areas get dryer, wet areas get wetter, stormy regions get stormier. Its too simple an assumption in a complex system.

Re: Not just Southern Spain

[Zontar The Mindless]

Look at what happened to the Aral Sea under the Soviets. The sea doesn't really exist anymore! (except as two small pocket remnants)

I've seen what's left of it from 10,000 metres. Bit of an eye-opener when I realised what it was, and that it didn't look much at all like what's shown on maps made just 50 or 60 years ago.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[KonoWatakushi]

Taking matters into our own hands is a nice thought, but solar+battery are not happening on any meaningful scale. Such installations rely heavily on subsidies and absent far better battery technology than we have, will always depend on the grid. However, the grid can't support more than a small fraction of solar, as California is learning now.

The problem we face is that most "greens" have lost sight of the goal, which should be maximizing reduction of emissions. Instead, they are busy waging a war on nuclear, on behalf of fossil fuel interests. They measure success by "capacity" and renewable installation rate, while ignoring emissions, which are steady or increasing. Prematurely closing nuclear plants in places like Germany and California has essentially wiped away any potential benefit of their renewables, because they are inevitably replaced by fossil fuels. Every time. The only real change is substantially increased retail electricity rates.

The recent lawsuit against zero emission credits in New York is quite telling. ZEC are an attempt to recognize the value of clean energy from nuclear, which is unfairly disadvantaged by generous renewable incentives which exclude nuclear, and temporarily low gas prices thanks to the glut of supply. The ZEC hedges against the inevitable rebound in gas pricing and its volatility, ultimately saving consumers money and ensuring that retail electricity prices will not skyrocket.

This lawsuit demonstrates their real intention. Note that renewable-only incentives have encountered no resistance, because they lock in gas and coal backup indefinitely. With nuclear out of the way it will allow them to make the most of their renewable partnership and drive up fossil energy prices. That would be acceptable if the hybrid fossil/renewable system could economically reduce emissions, but that has yet to happen even once.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[JaredOfEuropa]

Very well said, thank you.

I've met similar environmentalists who went as far as to say, in so many words: "We don't want solutions that don't force a reduction in greed". That was a while ago though, and thankfully that attitude has changed for the better with mainstream environmentalists. Nowadays, their line is that reduction of one type of pollution is good even if that kind of pollution turns out to be not much of a problem: reductions are often achieved by cleaner engines, improved efficiency and logistics, reduction of waste and so on, which means less overall pollution, and as a bonus, less dependancy on fossil fuels from craphole countries. There's money to be earned by being green.

I'd be very wary of anyone working on carbon credits though. It's a perfect vehicle for pushing ethics of certain people into the geopolitical arena, and part of it seems like a scam designed to line the pockets of Gore et al. But the good news is: emission levels in the developed world are dropping, we're now at 1990 levels in Europe, and the shift of manufacturing to the east only accounts for a small portion of that reduction. It is possible to achieve significant reductions without messing up our lifestyle too much (we can still be "greedy consumerist fucks" if we want to)

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[drinkypoo]

The 'scenario' is based on a simple yet unproven assumption that a warmer globe means a drier climate in specific localized regions. Yet there is no proof of this or a validated model for this.

We know what weather patterns form deserts, and what produces those weather patterns. Are you saying that we can't take a good guess at what will happen if we simply pour more energy into the existing weather patterns? I suspect that's something we're fairly good at.

With our inability to understand the feedback mechanisms in a warmer world that we've not yet witnessed, we might find that precipitation actually increases in some of these regions.

Yes, we might. But probably not. We've already had the opportunity to observe significant global warming, so our ability to make declarative statements about it is improving over time, and you're pretending that it itsn't.

I call general bullshit on the predictions that always say dry areas get dryer, wet areas get wetter, stormy regions get stormier. Its too simple an assumption in a complex system.

That's not the prediction. This is a prediction about one specific dry area. You know what's more suspicious than a prediction that a dry area will get dryer? Refusing to accept such a plausible prediction. They're making a quite believable claim (adding energy to a system will increase its extremes) and you are making the exceptional counterclaim. It is you with the responsibility of providing exceptional evidence.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[drinkypoo]

"it's about reducing greed."
The whole climate change movement has unfortunately mixed together ethics and science. And used "science" as the "reason" to accept the ethics. You "MUST" cut CO2 and do it in the societal-changing ways we believe in.

Here's the problem. You think they're objecting to greed on some whimsical basis. They aren't. They're objecting to it on the basis of physics. If we continue to live extractively, we are going to continue to force global warming. The biosphere cannot sustain our greed.

I personally am all for a progressive humanity and humanism and more ethical living.

Well then shut the fuck up and stop working against it, idiot.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[drinkypoo]

It's pretty logical why people over history want to believe the world/society/civilization is ending - it makes a superb excuse for extremely localized personal choices and values.

Societies and civilizations always end. That's what they do.

Nobody said the world is ending. The claim is that it's about to get extremely inconvenient for humans.

It's pretty logical why people move the goalposts — so they don't have to actually do anything to change.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[bfpierce]

Most of these predictions have had band-aids applied to them over the last 45 years to mitigate the impacts, policies and programs that have done a ton of work.

All of those things are still major problems currently, ALL of them.

So what's the problem really, that scientists make predictions or that people can't get their head around the fact that things change over a 50 year period?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Mr D from 63]

We know what weather patterns form deserts, and what produces those weather patterns. Are you saying that we can't take a good guess at what will happen if we simply pour more energy into the existing weather patterns? I suspect that's something we're fairly good at.

I am saying we can't predict what those weather patterns will be after a large shift in global temperatures. I don't know why you would suspect we are good at it, we can't predict rainfall or drought seasonally. There is no validated model that shows we can. You can assume we can, that's fine if you like.

Yes, we might. But probably not. We've already had the opportunity to observe significant global warming, so our ability to make declarative statements about it is improving over time, and you're pretending that it itsn't.

I never said we won't have warming over time. You must have read something I didn't say.

That's not the prediction. This is a prediction about one specific dry area. You know what's more suspicious than a prediction that a dry area will get dryer? Refusing to accept such a plausible prediction. They're making a quite believable claim (adding energy to a system will increase its extremes) and you are making the exceptional counterclaim. It is you with the responsibility of providing exceptional evidence.

I understand the prediction is one specific area. That is my point, We don't have that ability. I didn't refuse to accept it. I said we don't have any certainty or validation against a larger global warming shift. Your insistence that it must be correct is more telling. I don't insist it is wrong, I am just saying we don't have any certainly in these models. Obviously I can't present evidence that the models have uncertainty, as you can present evidence they are correct. I can say with certainty that the climate locally is part of a very complex model, and we've not shown any ability to accurately reflect that model in the short term, so there is little reason to believe it is accurate it the long term. But you can go ahead an just insist that it must be accurate if you like. I maintain a more critical view.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[PopeRatzo]

Nobody said the world is ending. The claim is that it's about to get extremely inconvenient for humans.

Stop making sense. This is a Slashdot global warming thread. We're all supposed to say science is full of shit.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[khallow]

You ever consider the possibility you are completely full of shit? Would be another reason to stick around.

What's worse is the Fascist media that keeps recording lower temperatures than actually occur.

LOL. There's a reason I go with evidence and not feelings.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Ol Olsoc]

I've lived on Miami Beach for 30+ years. In the last 6 years or so, when there is heavy rain, the water comes up over the sidewalk and completely floods the streets - **every time**. This never used to happen, and now it's totally predictable. So yeah, shit is happening, and you can observe it yourself if you choose to.

Oh boy - there's some dingdong I've had a row with who is gonna be pissed at you! He claims that there is absolutely no water rise issues in Miami, all is well, and all of the data claiming water rise is a conspiracy, all of the reports are a conspiracy, and there is no such thing as sea level rise.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Ol Olsoc]

So you should build a proper concrete or brick house, like normal people do.

Don't get too cocky - they don't float.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Ol Olsoc]

But I fear this constant fear-mongering is damaging climate science credibility as much as it's helping to push forward good environmental policies.

I fear that people who jam everyone into the most radical fringes of any thought process do a fair bit of damage as well.

Because life just doesn't work that way. Not everyone is fringe.

If there is an apocalypse that is based on AGW, it will possibly be based on humanity destroying most of itself through the time honored standard ways, such as warfare. As countries find a changing climate they might become desperate and invade other countries.

Because as the climate and resulting weather patters shift, some places will be hammered hard, and some places will be greatly benefited. And now that we have the means to wipe ourselves off the face of the earth with not a lot of effort, it might behoove us to look into the resulting social upheaval.

That's why the US military does a lot of planning for that upheaval. Whatever others think of them, they are pretty smart people.

So just because your crazy uncle Don thinks AGW is a hoax created by the Heathen Chinee, or cousin Moonbeam says our only chance is if the crystal aliens rescue us and take us to heaven, doesn't mean ti ain't so, just that our families have some nuts in them.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[flyingfsck]

Doom's day preachers have been at it since time immemorial. Go and read the Illiad - the world's oldest book - it also talks about past golden times and future doom and gloom and that was in about 850 BC. There is nothing new under the sun really.

Re: Not just Southern Spain

[Anonymous Coward]

Global warming and the elimination of global poverty are mutually exclusive. Global poverty will only rise as the effects of global warming are felt more severely. Get ready to welcome 'refugees' from the affected regions into your neighborhood. Human population only keeps growing while at the same time it will begin migrating to the more habitable parts of the Earth once their home becomes uncomfortably hot or turns to desert. Everyone will have a terrible time.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[NetNed]

Environmental awareness is fine. Climate change doesn't help this as it sucks money away from truly good efforts to clean areas up and protect lands. Clean waters, stopping pollution, etc, have all lost funds to the succubus of climate change. It's might raise awareness but if funding is robbed from these other causes it hurts them more than helps.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[interkin3tic]

I think the overpopulation thing is people being smug jerks to those who have children, or those who want to look down on other cultures. The fear that Africa and India are going to overtake Europe and the US on the world stage by breeding is a common thought in some right wing conspiracy circles, and it gives them a reason to feel superior. Like the movie Idiocracy with racism. It has more than enough logic to it to convince your uncle who is sure Obama is Kenyan.

Re: Not just Southern Spain

[interkin3tic]

I think you're giving climate change deniers too much credit. Deniers of any strain don't really need any fodder for what they believe in. 9/11 and sandy hook "truthers" obviously have nothing much concrete to point at for their insistence. The fossil fuel industry is able to conjure up enough FUD to keep skepticism alive even if researchers HAD behaved ideally.

Furthermore, I'd question whether climate change skepticism is the real barrier to dealing with the issue. I think inertia and apathy on the part of the public are far bigger impediments. Most americans don't go frothing at the mouth if you mention climate change. They just think "meh". Highlighting the scary specific predictions is likely more effective at motivating them.

Finally, FFS, that's how science works, you make predictions based on the data you have at the time. It's not a crystal ball. Why is the public consistently surprised that sensationalist headlines aren't 100% certain? "Eggs are bad, eggs are good, hurr hurr hurr, may as well smoke this cigarette, it's probably good for me in a few years."

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Immerman]

That's a feature - you can stand on the roof and hope for rescue. Ever tried to sail a house?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Immerman]

On the other hand, the worst-case projections for human carbon emissions have consistently been exceeded since we first realized that we were going to have a problem over a half-century ago, so there's reason to be concerned as well.

Re: Not just Southern Spain

[khallow]

Global warming and the elimination of global poverty are mutually exclusive.

That has yet to be shown.

But what can be shown is the remarkable counterproductive nature of current mitigation efforts. Germany and Denmark have greatly increased the price of their electricity without significantly changing their CO2 emissions. We continue to have poorly designed carbon credit markets. We continue to have a variety of white elephant projects to product relatively expensive renewable energy using a variety of dead-end technologies.

There has been a great deal of effort put forth into propaganda such as the research of this story that there is only one course of action, extreme, urgent climate mitigation right now. The problem remains as I noted at the beginning that there's no evidence to support these claims. Exaggerated projections based on exaggerated models is not evidence.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Immerman]

News flash, they already have us outnumbered.
Population of Africa: 1.22 billion
Population of India: 1.25 billion
Population of Europe: 0.74 billion
Population of North America: 0.53 billion
Population of South America: 0.42 billion

The fundamental problem with overpopulation is the fact that the planet is finite - we're already consuming considerably more resources than the Earth's ecosystem can replace. The Earth is a lot bigger than us, so its not obvious, but in financial terms we're spending the capital rather than living off the interest, and that isn't sustainable in the long term. Worse, that's the case before we even consider ecological damage from pollution and development.

Granted, we could do a lot better, in theory at least. For example estimates put global food waste at somewhere between 50% and 75% (produce that's unattractive, damaged in shipping, spends to much time on the store shelves, gets discarded from factories as undesirable, or gets thrown away by end-customers because they served themselves too much, or left leftovers in the fridge too long). If we handled things efficiently we could easily feed everyone well, while dramatically reducing our agricultural ecological load... but barring some social or technological miracle that's not going to happen.

Re: Not just Southern Spain

[Immerman]

Which is of course nonsense. The primary driver is clearly atmospheric CO2 levels, all other factors combined accounts for only a fraction of observed heating. And we know it's us increasing CO2 levels, because the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing *slower* than we are dumping CO2 into it. (An easy to calculate number - we know roughly how much coal and oil is consumed in the world, and how much CO2 is produced when it's burnt)

It doesn't matter how much complicated plumbing is involved, if the amount of water in the swimming pool is increasing more slowly than your hose is adding it, then it's a pretty safe bet that if you stopped adding water, the pool would stop filling up.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Ol Olsoc]

That's a feature - you can stand on the roof and hope for rescue. Ever tried to sail a house?

Reminds me of the old Joke.....

A man was in an ara struck by a hurricane. The police came by and told him he needed to get on the bus that would take him to a shelter. P "No thank you sir, My faith is strong, and God will protect me"

The policeman shrugged his shoulders and left.P The storm raged on, and the water filled the streets and came up to the porch. A boat came out to rescue the man.

Oh, no! My faith is strong, and God will surely provide for me as long as I have faith!" the man told the person in the boat.

The boat left to rescue others.

The water rose and rose, and a dam near th eman's house broke. The man climbed onto his roof, but the water was still rising.

A rescue Helicopter came by, and dropped a ladder for the man to climb up and be pulled out of certain death

The man replied "NO! Who would I be to lose my faith in God? He will deliver me from this flood so long as I believe!!" The Helicopter left.

The water continued to rise, and the man was swept off his roof and drowned.

Arriving at the pearly gates, The man met God.

"God! Why have you abandoned me in the moment I needed you most? I needed saved, and you let me drown!"

God replied, You idiot! First I sent the police to rescue you, then I sent a boat to rescue you, then I sent a helicopter to rescue you! What more did you want?"

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Ol Olsoc]

Florida is predominantly swampland and sinkhole ridden. Florida is being developed at an alarming rate.

Couldn't POSSIBLY have anything to do with either of those things though!

Yes, it could have a lot to do with it. But that doesn't mean the ocean levels are not rising. Especially in the southern part of Florida, the land is all very near to sea level. This means that small increases in sea level will have large effects on real estate. So places that were not affected years ago, are now. Portions of Miami regularly have incursions of seawater diring spring tides, that did not have them in years past.

http://www.newyorker.com/magaz...

But fear not, The Governor of Florida has simply banned ocean level rise, so the problem has been fixed.

That and a lot of pumps. We are not truly pissing against the tide. http://miami.cbslocal.com/2014...

And as noted, the sure fire cure foro this is , as noted “Let’s pray, let’s pray, let’s pray, it’s going to get better,” said Caballero."

Who knew?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[orgelspieler]

Some of these predictions didn't come true precisely because they were made. Particularly the air pollution problem. Do you remember what it was like during rush hour in the late 70s early 80s? I lived in a medium-sized Texas town, and I remember the clouds of smog on a hot summer day. As an asthmatic, you learned to just not go outside when it looked like that. In China people DO have to wear particulate filters on really bad days. So frankly, this isn't too far off the mark.

Additionally, I remember in the early 80's they were saying it would get warmer in the next 30 years. It certainly has, although so slow that it has been imperceptible to those living through it. Had population continued to rise at 1970's rates (about 2.0% globally), rather than drop to about 1.6%, it's hard to say how all of this would have played out. In the US the rates are more like 1.2% down to 0.8%, but there was still a slowdown in the rate of growth. Some of the alarmists probably made life a little better for the rest of us who just don't pay attention. Hard to say.

It's a pity they didn't foresee the complete mess we have made of the oceans. At least not enough of them to change public awareness and perception.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[kimvette]

> * 100-200 Million People Per Year Will Be Starving To Death During The Next Ten Years

That was a gross under-estimate.

> * Population Will Inevitably And Completely Outstrip Whatever Small Increases In Food Supplies We Make

Today we produce enough food to feed ~13 billion people, but most of it is thrown away either due to greed or mismanagement.

> * Demographers Agree Almost Unanimously Thirty Years From Now, The Entire World Will Be In Famine

For 1-2 BILLION people, it probably seems like the entire world is in famine because famine is all they will ever know. See: greed and mismanagement, above

> * In A Decade, Urban Dwellers Will Have To Wear Gas Masks To Survive Air Pollution

Clean air will be sold in cans, so consider the business opportunity. Yay capitalism! ;)

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Sir_Eptishous]

To quote the master:

Science, like nature, must also be tamed
With a view towards its preservation
Given the same, State of integrity
It will surely serve us well

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[DeafAnchovy]

> When the experts have been consistently wrong with these constant doomsday predictions for 45 years, is it any wonder that people start to become skeptical of ALL climate and environmental sciences? That's not a good thing. Yeah, Concern Troll for Science Nr 1, whose main aim is "nothing to see here, move on." So, we do nothing about climate change. Right. We already have our first resource war of the anthropocene in Syria. European crops failed last year. To get back to where we were 40 years ago in terms of emissions pollutants, we have to *reverse* emissions output. We have to stop putting out all emissions and find a way of scrubbing the atmosphere. You're not helping.

Re: Not just Southern Spain

[DeafAnchovy]

> In fact, I think we're already starting to witness this phenomenon, as many, many people believe global warming is a complete hoax. Right. So nothing to do with goons like you spreading your bullshit even since the GW warnings started happening?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[DeafAnchovy]

That's not the problem, as well you know. The increase in population means that more resources will be consumed ... more pollutants released, more global warming, more crop failures, floods ...

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[rastos1]

Hunger is primarily caused by politics and corruption these days, not a lack of food - it's essentially a distribution issue

... and so it does not deserve our attention and can be left as an exercise for the respected reader.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Gussington]

It's pretty logical why people over history want to believe the world/society/civilization is ending - it makes a superb excuse for extremely localized personal choices and values.

Well it's logical because it always happens on a regular basis. Sumerians, Greeks, Romans, Aztecs etc etc all ended at some point. I'm sure someone with a better history education can fill a page with other examples. As the other poster said, no-one is claiming the end of the world, but a major civilisation altering event is actually going to happen sooner or later. Even in the boy who cried wolf, the wolf eventually made an appearance.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[whoever57]

Are you suggesting that sewage outflow raises the level of the ocean?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Gussington]

When the human population was at half its current value, the percentage of starving people was probably the same, or higher. And the reasons were the same, too.

Agree.

Population itself is not the problem, no matter how much of a shit you want to make of yourself.

Although I disagree with this. You can only fill a room with so many people, and while population is not the cause of starvation, it is a huge impediment to fixing it, since the things required to fix it, basic health, education, a fair legal system, equal rights etc, would result in a lot more wealthier less hungry people, who all now want hardwood flooring and steak dinners. I'm not sure the world can support 7 billion people who all own cars, eat beef, and enjoy air conditioning.

Re: Not just Southern Spain

[Gussington]

The more often scientists or experts predict the end of the world and it doesn't come to pass, the more people will stop trusting science in the first place, and that seems like a very bad thing to me.

It's a catch 22 because the reason the end of world scenarios don't happen precisely because someone called it out, research was done, and either debunked it or implemented measures to prevent it.
This is why education is so important in a democracy. An education can teach you to distinguish real science from media headlines, and voters will be able to make choices based on reason rather than fear.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[drinkypoo]

I am saying we can't predict what those weather patterns will be after a large shift in global temperatures.

And you are basing that on... what?

I don't know why you would suspect we are good at it, we can't predict rainfall or drought seasonally. There is no validated model that shows we can. You can assume we can, that's fine if you like.

That's calling moving the goalposts, son. The claim is that we can determine what will happen on average, not what will happen tomorrow. People move the goalposts when they know they can't make the actual goal, so they can get a trophy even when they don't deserve one.

I understand the prediction is one specific area. That is my point, We don't have that ability.

And yet, you have still failed to provide any evidence that suggests that you're right, and they're wrong. All you've done is engage in logical fallacy. If that's the best you can do, stop trying.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Mr D from 63]

I never said they are wrong, i said they are unproven and have gresr uncertainty. I don't need to provide any evidence. You are saying they are right, where is your evidence? Do you know of any single model of local climate that has been validated to properly reflect the impact of long term global warming? I bet you don't even know what models exist

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[pixelpusher220]

well he did say "this shit is happening" so apparently so! ;-)

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[pixelpusher220]

The boy who cried wolf was still right when the wolf came...

In this case the scientists are saying "the wolf is coming unless we act now"

And yet luddites get treated as some sort of valid opinion.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[pixelpusher220]

you see economic collapse, whereas history would tell you it's simply a massive opportunity.

Unless we just sit and stew in our own failure, there will be massive demand for mitigation technology...something that's rather good for an economy.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[pixelpusher220]

yep they did fail to materialize. the temps are HIGHER than predicted. show us the scientific studies that predicted otherwise.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[pixelpusher220]

peaking at 8.7 billion in just 40 years? given that we're over 7 already...that would seem to foretell some massive die offs... Do you have a source?

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[drinkypoo]

I never said they are wrong, i said they are unproven and have gresr uncertainty.

You need to buy a dictionary, not because of your typo, but because you don't know what the words you're using mean. That sentence did not make any sense as written. Go back and read your dictionary until you understand it. I did this from the ages of three to five. Your turn, son, but you're a little fucking late.

I don't need to provide any evidence.

They have. Your turn, son, but you're a little fucking late.

Do you know of any single model of local climate that has been validated to properly reflect the impact of long term global warming? I bet you don't even know what models exist

You don't even understand the difference between climate and weather.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[drinkypoo]

I'd imagine many of those same people also still believe the world overpopulation doomsday predictions of the 70's, even though population is demonstrably trending toward peaking at around a very manageable 8.7 billion by 2055, according to recent analysis and predictions.

Manageable? Talk to me when we are serving the basic needs of the people already on this planet. Talk to me when we are not spending through natural capital more rapidly than it can be replenished. With our current behavior, Earth is already over its carrying capacity, as easily proven by the unserved demands we're placing upon the biosphere. CO2 levels continue to rise (and are already higher than they have been any time during human existence) and oceanic acidification continues to increase. When these things are no longer true, then you can blather about "manageable". We are provably not managing the population we have now.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[drinkypoo]

I think the overpopulation thing is people being smug jerks to those who have children,

Good, the last thing the world needs is more ignorant fucks littering the world with more ill-behaved progeny. Fuck people who have children without a plan for mitigating their environmental impact. Fuck them right in their selfish faces.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[drinkypoo]

Population itself is not the problem, no matter how much of a shit you want to make of yourself.

It really is, because more humans do more environmental damage. It's not the reason why people don't get fed, but it is the reason why people in the future won't be able to get fed by growing crops in soil outdoors.

Granted, we could live with less environmental impact on average, but until we do, the population is still a problem. You could fix the equation by reducing other values than P, but it's still a value in the equation that's making a whole lot of turds come out of the other end.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Mr D from 63]

Your sophomoric response is telling.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[roman_mir]

Reminds me of a joke:
A kid is asking his father: -Daddy, who did you actually want, a boy or a girl?
The guy replies: -Actually I wanted your mother...

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[lsatenstein]

Israel inherited a desert. Since 1948, Israel has been planting trees and using their drip water systems to encourage growth. Trees moderate the temperature and have a side effect that cooler land means less water evaporation. By the way, Jews do sponsor a tree for most celebrations (birthdays, anniversaries, marriages, funerals etc.).

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[RockDoctor]

I was wondering if anyone else would see that connection.

Spaghetti for supper, I think.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[ArmoredDragon]

When the human population was at half its current value, the percentage of starving people was probably the same, or higher. And the reasons were the same, too.

I don't have any numbers to show it, but I suspect that it was much higher than it is now, namely because mass famine has historically been a chronic problem in Asian and African countries, whereas that's no longer the case. I think the reason things are different now is due to big changes to agricultural technology that have come about over the last 60 years. Synthetic pesticides, synthetic fertilizers, GMO, etc. You get massively increased crop yields without needing to increase the landmass required for farming.

Ironically the "clean food movement" seeks to roll back these technologies, raise the costs of food production, and go back to famine, and for no good reason other than they have some kind of religious objection to modern agriculture.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[ArmoredDragon]

Good, the last thing the world needs is more ignorant fucks littering the world with more ill-behaved progeny. Fuck people who have children without a plan for mitigating their environmental impact. Fuck them right in their selfish faces.

Well it's typically poor people that have a lot of kids, but we're supposed to have sympathy for the poor and not speak ill of them or the homeless people who leave trash all over and run in the middle of the street, blocking traffic, so they can pickup a quarter.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[syntotic]

Bad model, run one with people actually working the fields and using modern technology. Southern Spain a desert is just too good for Arabs reinvading. My bet is Spaniards have been doing it wrong since before La Reconquista and it is the influence of Arabs because, if Arabs do live in deserts, how exactly do you expect them to influence others, what with? Stop blaming greenhouse gases, it sounds simplistic. Now we have only to fall down to premedieval industrial levels to recover in 100 years for change over 10,000 years! Spain fell behind in R&D, that is obvious, they will not be 1st in technological applications either. Why not spend the money in designing agricultural plans and more R&D to revert the trend? I cannot believe we cannot super cultivate the place to avoid desertification, despite Spaniards, that is.

Re:Not just Southern Spain

[Coren22]

Reduced water drainage area would be my assumption of what ishmaelflood is speaking to. When a building, street or parking lot is built, that is ground that can no longer drain water naturally, reducing the ground's natural drainage.

Re:Stick to tech news please

[jenningsthecat]

Since tech is at the root of a lot of global warming, and tech will likely figure prominently in any solutions we might come up with, and there's already a pretty big tech sector devoted to reducing greenhouse gas emissions - this IS a tech story, fucktard. Get your head out of your ass, and your ass out of Mom's basement.

climate models

[phantomfive]

Worth mentioning that climate models are not reliable at anything less than continental scale (according to IPCC), and even then, there is some doubt about their accuracy at any scale.

Re:climate models

[Anonymous Coward]

Southern Spain is already half desert, but they already have HUGE areas covered in domed greenhouses providing incredible amounts of produce for world markets.
They supply HALF of Europe's fruit and vegetables around Almeria, with the world's largest concentration of greenhouses.
You can see it from SPACE.

Re:climate models

[phantomfive]

Southern Spain is one of the most beautiful parts of the earth.

Re:climate models

[Anonymous Coward]

you're right less just ignore it altogether! (that's sarcasm by the way)

in my life time ive seen the south of spain start to transform into a desert. whatever causes that it seems concerning for future generations.

Re:climate models

[KeensMustard]

So the reality could be far worse than these predictions?

Re:climate models

[phantomfive]

That is a possibility that should be taken into consideration.

Re:climate models

[tlambert]

They supply HALF of Europe's fruit and vegetables around Almeria, with the world's largest concentration of greenhouses.
You can see it from SPACE.

Southern Spain is one of the most beautiful parts of the earth.

When viewed from SPACE...

Re:climate models

[TapeCutter]

whatever causes that

Google "Hadley Cells", they are basically convection currents, tropical storms create huge updrafts which reach the stratosphere and are pushed polewards from the equator by the rotation of the planet. At that altitude the air becomes cold and dry, the cold, dry air falls back to earth and forms the bands of deserts that circle the earth on each side of the equator. As the planet heats up the convection currents become stronger, making monsoons wetter and the desert bands wider.

Re:climate models

[tlambert]

According to the GP, you can...

The rain in Spain...

[TWX]

The Rain in Spain stays mainly out-of-the Plain...

Re:The rain in Spain...

[TWX]

Actually I'm probably being modded-up because of a little ditty from *My Fair Lady* where Eliza Doolittle is being taught to speak properly through several vocal exercises by Professor Henry Higgins, but it's okay if you couldn't be bothered to look up the reference.

Big deal

[rsilvergun]

In billions of years the sun is going to encompass the Earth, right? Global warming is in our future.

Re:Big deal

[BigU 03C0mpin]

I would so mod this funny if I had points.

Re:Big deal

[ClickOnThis]

In billions of years the sun is going to encompass the Earth, right? Global warming is in our future.

That will happen in billions of years. The effects of climate change will happen in hundreds to thousands of years. You tell me what is more of an immediate concern.

Re:Big deal

[I'm New Around Here]

I have two points left right now. I'll mod it funny for you.

Re:Big deal

[Oswald McWeany]

In billions of years I will be a brain in a jar attached to a robot on a portable mini-planet circling a different star.

Spaghetti Fallout Movies?

[zenlessyank]

They can film them there and create a renewed film industry.

Re:Stick to tech news please

[ClickOnThis]

Since tech is at the root of a lot of global warming, and tech will likely figure prominently in any solutions we might come up with, and there's already a pretty big tech sector devoted to reducing greenhouse gas emissions - this IS a tech story, fucktard. Get your head out of your ass, and your ass out of Mom's basement.

This. What is climate change, if not tech news?

If you think otherwise, then you're indisputably anti-science, no matter where you stand on the issue.

Souther Spain was ALREADY a desert in the 80s

[elcor]

Doubt it got greener since then.

Re:Souther Spain was ALREADY a desert in the 80s

[guruevi]

I was about to comment the same. If you ever get to visit Spain (especially the south), it's very similar to Nevada. It's a huge desert.

Re:Souther Spain was ALREADY a desert in the 80s

[Anonymous Coward]

Only a small region of Almeria at the south east corner of the Iberian peninsula where the solar plants are located.

The Sierra de Grazalema, in the southern Spanish province of Cadiz, with mountains that block the Atlantic moisture-carrying winds is the most rainy place in Spain due to the Foehn_wind.

Re:Souther Spain was ALREADY a desert in the 80s

[CQDX]

Quite a few Spaghetti Westerns were filmed there because it looks like the desert southwest region of the USA.

Re:Souther Spain was ALREADY a desert in the 80s

[Anonymous Coward]

Guess you only visited on summer vacations? Only during the summer is dry and sunny every day, the rest of the year is all green.

Re:No Efforts At All

[I'm New Around Here]

Global warming and pollution will not be held back unless we have mandatory birth control world wide. As population increases more and more land must be used for agriculture and meat as well as housing and roads. The more human activity we have the worse nature will decline. One child for every female under every circumstance needs to be the world wide law.

So, then, there is no hope at all.

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[R3d M3rcury]

Look, who wants 26% atmospheric oxygen? More air to breathe? Who wants that?

I dunno. You also get worse wildfires. Add that to the drought and there could be even bigger trouble.

look at satellite images.

[Anonymous Coward]

Southern spain is desert by most peoples definitions already.
every place where people are not actively agriculturing has been desolated by farming already.. like a fucking 1000 years ago by now?

basically, this leads to believe that they haven't actually been to spain. or even looked at google maps. just compare italy to spain. hell, if you looked at pictures of spanish civil war prior to WW2(!!!!) it's already like that.

https://www.google.co.th/maps/place/Spain/@39.8596584,-12.7036393,2880738m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0xc42e3783261bc8b:0xa6ec2c940768a3ec!8m2!3d40.463667!4d-3.74922

it's not desert only in places that have human agriculture, so fuck this study - give a better one.

oh noes

[stud9920]

Does it mean we'll have to become racist to Spanish refugees again? it's so 1936...

Re:oh noes

[tlambert]

Does it mean we'll have to become racist to Spanish refugees again? it's so 1936...

I'm sure the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic had nothing whatsoever to do with a reluctance to have Spanish people anywhere near oneself...

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Opportunist]

Why is it that the feeblest minds always have the urge to invent words? Anyway.

You might have noticed that back then the continents were in a different position. Also that the dinosaurs didn't really care (or couldn't really influence) if large parts of those continents changed and became inhospitable. You might have noticed that a lot of them died out during the couple million years they "ruled" the earth. Not all of them due to the meteor, by the way.

Some of them because continents change and so do climates. It's not really hard to tell, but it's no big deal if 50% of a population of dinosaurs die out. There was plenty more to keep the species going.

Thinking about it... it's pretty much the same for humans today. So, why worry?

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Anonymous Coward]

And bigger insects and arachnids... Spiders hunting dogs. Who would NOT want that ?

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Stephan Schulz]

The Jurassic period. [...]

How often do you repeat this canned nonsense and where did you get it? It've rebutted a previous incarnation here. Of course, it's not atypical for creationists and similar groups to keep repeating refuted arguments over and over again - it is, of course, much easier than to come up with real arguments. And chances are your audience does not know enough to understand the state of the art and the quality (or lack of same) of the argument. So while intellectually dishonest, it may be an economically efficient strategy if you are interested in propaganda more than in understanding...

Re:No Efforts At All

[allcoolnameswheretak]

Exactly. In all the debates about climate change and the environmental issues we face, I always wonder why nobody brings up the subject of birth control. Really, all of the issues we face can be reduced to the single root cause, that there's too many humans on this planet. It's not sustainable.

It wouldn't have to "hurt" either. Let every person have two children max, and with the people who don't want any kids at all and those who die before creating offspring, human population would gradually decrease. Though perhaps for the next 60 years or so, halving population every generation with a one child policy would be the more radical, but also the safer variant for the environment.

Yet as you also correctly state, everyone is always only talking about growth. We need more consumers, more workers, more people to pay the rents of the older generations... it's not a sustainable strategy. We are behaving like bacteria, endlessly reproducing until we kill of our host.

Re: Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED

[Anonymous Coward]

Nothing to see here... Out walking my spider...

Continent positions

[tlambert]

You might have noticed that back then the continents were in a different position.

Clearly, as the sea levels rise, they will float back! Duh!

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[bytesex]

"You might have noticed that a lot of them died out during the couple million years they "ruled" the earth."

They mostly miniaturized and became lizards and birds. Also: 'couple million years'?

Time marches on....

[beheaderaswp]

Well, I'm about to turn 51. As one of the tech people who have been in tech since the early 1980s, I'd mention that my generation protested, worked as activists, and put ourselves out there not only for tech issues- but also for environmental ones.

My generation (the boomers), of which I'm in the youngest portion of, can't help you younger folks with this. Sure we vote. But increasingly we are retired, or worse sick.

You young kids need to pick up the pace. We're not able to anymore. We did our best: you need to do better.

You've been warned.

Re:Time marches on....

[110010001000]

Er, what? You aren't a boomer. What does 50 and/or retired have to do with anything? Your generation never protested anything. Give me a break.

Re:Time marches on....

[Oswald McWeany]

To be fair, they probably protested Kmart buying Sears and then going out of business because only old people go there.

Re:Time marches on....

[ooloorie]

In different words, you're self-righteous and ignorant.

Re:Time marches on....

[RockDoctor]

Give me a break.

Sure will. Which knee do you never want to bear weight again?

Young little shits like you would have been better as a spat-out blow job instead of being wasted on an ovum.

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[erikkemperman]

Why bother? It's all futile.

Marvin? Is that you?

Some notes

[DrYak]

Civilization Will End Within 15 Or 30 Years

Yeah, this point is exactly like TFA :
also paraphraseable as "if nothing ever changes and absolutely everything keeps as it is now, we will be doomed".
Except that things change anyway, no matter what people want.

(And same with today's prediction. By 2100, there are probably going to be tons of other factors changing.
Maybe people's energy requirement will be lower simply because it's cheaper overall.
(lower consumption electric/electronic gizmos == cheaper electricity bill)
Maybe electric car will get more popular which even factoring battery/solar pannels manufacturing, could have some impact : by incite people to burn less fossils and because some regions like europe are trying to move fast away from fossil electricity generation)
Maybe a huge social collapse will cause society to regress to a hunter/gatherer state which has a lot less environmental impact by the sheer reason that they are much smaller societies
etc.).

* Population Will Inevitably And Completely Outstrip Whatever Small Increases In Food Supplies We Make
* Demographers Agree Almost Unanimously Thirty Years From Now, The Entire World Will Be In Famine
* 100-200 Million People Per Year Will Be Starving To Death During The Next Ten Years

...and as you note: this came as a surprise - population actually tend to slow their growth spontaneously.
(This was even discussed here on /. )
Suddenly in modern societies, having more children became a burden, not an economic advantage.
And thus, the catastrophic scenario evoked by demographers didn't happen.

In A Decade, Urban Dwellers Will Have To Wear Gas Masks To Survive Air Pollution

Actually, spot-on, in some more polluted area of the world. Mostly in developing economies.
(Industrial areas in China come in mind as an exemple. But happens also in South America)
With one minor difference :
- The people didn't *actually* start wearing the predicted gaz masks, and thus we are seeing increases in health issue in those smoggy areas
(whereas the prediction was that people *will do* wear the gaz masks and business as usual will continue).

Meanwhile, there has been some effort in the occident to put a dent in pollution (several European countries come in mind)

Childbearing [Will Be] A Punishable Crime Against Society, Unless The Parents Hold A Government License

Completely spot-on.
Say hello to China and its "Single Child" policy.

And turned out to be not that useful, as mentioned above, other countries without such policy also curbed their population growth all the same (big surprise to 1970s demographers).

By The Year 2000 There Won’t Be Any More Crude Oil

By the 1970 definition, yes all the 1970-era wells are getting dangerously low, and price of gaz and other fossils have exploded as a consequence of demande/offer market laws...

(so the 1970-era prediction were right when thinking that their well will dry up in the near future) ...except that increased price and advances in technology made other extraction methods viable.

so instead of the drying wells leading to a collaps of gaz-based technologies,
the drying wells got simply replaced by fraking and co.

There's an interesting article on why most of these dire predictions didn't come to pass, noting some positive outcomes of the increased environmental awareness, like the Clean Water, Clean Air, Endangered Species acts, and other environmental protection laws.

And who knows, maybe due to tons of small modifications in habits and lifestyles everywhere, the "business continues as usual and southern europe turns into

Re:Some notes

[drinkypoo]

so instead of the drying wells leading to a collaps of gaz-based technologies,
the drying wells got simply replaced by fraking and co.

Yes, instead of moving towards something sustainable, we switched to something else extractive, which leads to unsustainable CO2 emissions. Hooray!

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[RabidReindeer]

Why bother? It's all futile.

Marvin? Is that you?

I just want you to know that I have a throbbing pain in the diodes all down my left side.

But no one cares.

Don't just think "change"; think "rate of change".

[hey!]

I have known or at least met many environmental luminaries in the course of my career, and as one of them put it: I = P*S/T -- that is to say environmental impact is proportional to population and standard of living, but is inversely proportional to technology.

So the key to avoiding a dystopian future is to keep the rate of technological improvement greater than the rate of population growth. The way to do that is to invest in people. Societies who have lower infant mortality rates have lower birth rates; societies with better education are more innovative.

Will the future way we do things look radically different from today? Yes! Just as the way we do things today look radically different from the past. Change happens in both the environment and human society; it's inevitable. The question is whether it happens at a rate organisms and people can adapt to, and in particular whether we make a conscious decision to direct that change or have it forced upon us.

Re:No Efforts At All

[SomeoneFromBelgium]

No.
All we have to do is switch to cleaner environmentally safe sources of energy like wind and solar power. The full potential of these energy sources have not been reached at all.

Re:Who cares

[Oswald McWeany]

I'll still be alive. I'll be a brain in a jar connected to a robot, but I'll still be alive.

Re:predictable slashdot denial

[Oswald McWeany]

In less than 100 years doctors will be extracting my brain to put it in a jar and connect it to a robot.

Re:Yet again...

[Oswald McWeany]

When most people will be dead, I will be a scared brain in a jar attached to a robot looking at the desert in Spain.

Re: Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED

[Ol Olsoc]

Nope, I'm afraid that dinosaurs did not in fact become lizards. Incidentally, were you "educated" in (or even near) Oklahoma??

Burn!

Las Vegas, too!

[clonehappy]

I bet by 2100 most of the Southwestern United States will be a desert, too! Oh, the humanity!

Technological Solution

[alvinfernald]

Hopefully, by that time mankind will have developed the technology to move water from one place to another.

Forget about the future, what about now?

[jedidiah]

Have any of you actually been to southern Spain. It already looks like New Mexico or Nevada. It seems pretty dry already.

The palm trees were also a bit of a shock. I was not expecting to see those in Europe.

Re:Forget about the future, what about now?

[ooloorie]

Have any of you actually been to southern Spain. It already looks like New Mexico or Nevada. It seems pretty dry already.

It used to be all forests before the Spanish chopped down all the trees to build houses and fleets.

But, of course, instead of the Spanish taking responsibility for destroying their own environment, it's now "climate change".

Re:Forget about the future, what about now?

[Tablizer]

Are you saying chopping down the trees is mostly what changed the southern climate?

instead of the Spanish taking responsibility for destroying their own environment

Isn't it already agreed by most researchers that global warming is caused by humans? The Spanish are humans, no? I'm confused here.

Re:Forget about the future, what about now?

[ooloorie]

Are you saying chopping down the trees is mostly what changed the southern climate?

Chopping down the trees changed Spain into a near-desert.

Isn't it already agreed by most researchers that global warming is caused by humans? The Spanish are humans, no? I'm confused here.

Yes, but global warming did not devastate the environment in the Iberian peninsula; that happened much earlier. And, in fact, it probably won't cause it to get any drier or warmer either. Hence, the Spanish are trying to shift blame for their environmental sins onto others.

Is Manhattan under water?

[biggaijin]

Let's not forget that these guys predicted Lower Manhattan would be under water by 2006. It's impossible for me to believe any of this stuff anymore.

Re:Da plan

[flyingfsck]

"1. Spread misinformation (half truths at best)
2. Wait for real estate prices to drop
3. Snatch nice areas close to mediterranean white sand beaches"
Hmm - Spanish girl... snatch... white (nuda) beach...
Sounds like a plan I can live with!

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Anonymous Coward]

First off. I wrote it. I figured that I should "improve it" to refute your supposed refutations.

But you fucking people are god damned worthless anyways. You never offer solutions to your AGW. Kill yourself. Be an example to the rest of the world. If you have no solutions and the solution is to remove mankind, FUCKING KILL YOURSELF. And you know what. When the fucking fat stupid shitstained scum like you give up the black flag of Islam and hoards of those vile scum will take over. You are basically ensuring the WORST CASE outcome possible. Earth overrun by Islam because you wanted to crucify all people who dont believe in AGW as creationists and sought to humiliate and destroy Christians and those who dont worship in the Cult-Church of Climatology. FUCK YOU. I hope you die a horrible death, slow, long and painful and you watch your imaginary friends die (as you have non in real life). I spit on you. I spit on you. I SPIT ON YOU.

OT: wordists

[Cajun Hell]

Why is it that the feeblest minds always have the urge to invent words?

That's easy! I got this.

They do it because the smartest minds do it, and everyone (even feebles) wants to look besmartified. Assume a virtue, if you have it not.

Re:OT: wordists

[Opportunist]

Guess I'm not that smart then, I always use the words from other people.

Re:OT: wordists

[Cajun Hell]

I always use the words from other people.

And you call yourself Opportunist!? Here you are, texting away, while future's history awaits the next genius the caliber of Lewis Carroll, Eric Idle or George W Bush.

What happned to the Aral Sea

[Anonymous Coward]

That happened because the Syr Daria was diverted for irrigation, removing the Aral Sea's primary water source. It had nothing to do with climate change. It had everything to do with the socialism you espouse.

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Stephan Schulz]

First off. I wrote it. I figured that I should "improve it" to refute your supposed refutations.

Well, as far as I can tell, so far you haven't - you just repeat it. But I'd suggest you first try to figure out how valid (or invalid) your point is before you work on the details.

But you fucking people are god damned worthless anyways. You never offer solutions to your AGW. If you have no solutions and the solution is to remove mankind, [...rest of the rant deleted]

The scientific truth of a statement has nothing to do with the question of an adequate way to handle the problem identified in the statement. I'd love to have Star-Trek-like superluminal travel, but that wish has nothing to do with the validity of the theory of relativity.

I happen to think that it is better to know and understand a problem even if we don't yet have a perfect solution to it - indeed, I find that usually that is a necessary precondition for addressing the problem. And even if we never come up with an acceptable way to at least partially control global warming (I think there are plenty, and the side benefits alone probably outweigh the associated costs), I still would want to understand the mechanisms that cause it. Indeed, if ever they drag me to my execution, I'd still like to know how the guillotine works. Hi, my name is Stephan and I'm a scientist.

And if the sun cools, For a while?

[Invisible Now]

Wouldn't it be a hoot if we start accepting very detailed climate models just as the sun, perhaps as predicted by new solar dynamics models and historically low sunspot activity enters a cooling phase that is unmodeled as a reduction int the energy input to the earth?

Re: Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED

[Opportunist]

Yeah, that comforts me that my grand-grand-grand-grand-grandson will be 2 inches tall, fly around and eat bird seed in some idiot's cage.

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Immerman]

No, most of them went completely extinct - only one small branch evolved into birds. And reptiles had already split off long before - lizards (and proto-mammals) walked the earth before dinosaurs existed.

I mean hey, primates rule the planet now, but its okay if a mass extinction wipes us all out, so long as some squirrel monkeys somewhere manage to survive the catastrophe, right?

Re: Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED

[Immerman]

Not even anything so closely related - more like some descendant of flying squirrels. Hey, the mammals survived, right? What's everyone griping about?

Re:Stick to tech news please

[vel-ex-tech]

Bah, that's what Soylent is for. Did you notice they brought back sponsored articles with no comments? This place is for shitposting.

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[NoNonAlphaCharsHere]

Well done. I absolutely cannot tell if you're trolling or dead serious.

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

Re:predictable slashdot denial

[WillAffleckUW]

In less than 100 years doctors will be extracting my brain to put it in a jar and connect it to a robot.

well, a robotic hamster. it wasn't useful for much else

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Stephan Schulz]

Donald? Shouldn't you be stumping in Texas to avoid losing that one, too?

Who cares! The world will end in 10 days!

[bobbied]

With the election, it's all going to be over in 10 days anyway, if you listen to the candidates and realize that ONE Of them will be president elect..

Oh, wait...

You mean the sun will keep rising and setting even after November 8th? How can that be so?

Doing

[DeafAnchovy]

The time has come to stop talking about it, and doing things.

We need to introduce alternates for energy supply ASAP.

A combo of nuclear power, wind, solar and tidal turbines need to be introduced. Now.

ALL oil and gas powered systems have to be taken out action NOW. And I do mean NOW.

A method for scrubbing the atmosphere has to be introduced. Now.

There are literally NO ALTERNATIVES. Anything else - like the bullshit discussions happening on this board - really need to stop. They only serve to put a sheet anchor on the way forward.

Re: Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED

[Hognoxious]

Sod walking. I want one I can ride.

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Areyoukiddingme]

I mean hey, primates rule the planet now, but its okay if a mass extinction wipes us all out, so long as some squirrel monkeys somewhere manage to survive the catastrophe, right?

Who needs squirrel monkeys? The raccoons have got this. Omnivorous, food hygiene practitioners, small-group socializers, long-lived (20 years), clever enough to open screw top jars and operate door knobs, currently exhibiting broad habitat adaptability, with agile paws and a highly developed sense of touch, raccoons stand a good chance of evolving into Earth's next sapient species if Earth's current sapient species suffers a mischief.

Where will refugees go?

[drdic cruzzz'n]

If Southern Spain is cooken'.. The Middle East should be uninhabitable in low lying areas? Some relocation scenarios should be a side by side requirement.

Yup...

[DrYak]

Yup exactly. At least the emptying wells would have given hope that at least the burning will stop, but no once we finished fucking things up we managed to invent a new to keep fucking the things up all the same.

Re:Not just Southern Spain DGW - Dinosaurs WARMED!

[Coren22]

Losing that one as well? What crack are you smoking?

None of the states are finalized, we are still a week off of that occuring.