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AI Could Lead To Third World War, Elon Musk Says (theguardian.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: Elon Musk has said again that artificial intelligence could be humanity's greatest existential threat, this time by starting a third world war. The prospect clearly weighs heavily on Musk's mind, since the SpaceX, Tesla and Boring Company chief tweeted at 2.33am Los Angeles time about how AI could led to the end of the world -- without the need for the singularity. His fears were prompted by a statement from Vladimir Putin that "artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind ... It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world." Hashing out his thoughts in public, Musk clarified that he was not just concerned about the prospect of a world leader starting the war, but also of an overcautious AI deciding "that a [pre-emptive] strike is [the] most probable path to victory." Musk added, "Competition for AI superiority at national level most likely cause of WW3 in my opinion. [...] Govts don't need to follow normal laws. They will obtain AI developed by companies at gunpoint, if necessary."

118 of 244 comments (clear)

  1. I think I speak for everyone by SensitiveMale · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Elon, shut the fuck up.

    1. Re: I think I speak for everyone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      -1 Troll? More like +5 Undeniable Truth.

    2. Re:I think I speak for everyone by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      If by "everyone", you mean a minority of a minority of persons ... sure.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    3. Re:I think I speak for everyone by Evtim · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Interesting! For once I agreed with him regarding AI and the key phrase was "without singularity".

      Do we deny, however, that "simple machine learning" (which the journalists, corporate PR, and therefore politicians call AI) applied on big data can be used (very successfully) as social engineering tool? Or tool for economic and military advantage? What follows form that? War, pure and simple.

      Such - let's take the social part - powerful tool (how many stories per day about censorship, using bid data to come after people, change minds, push agendas, Google pushing whatever, MZ for president, fake news, spying on friends, spying on enemies, requiting trrists, hacking elections, etc. we have) brings completely new opportunities on he table. And it is powerful - wars are lost due to public opinion (Vietnam!). And guess who is first with the knife and fork ready to exploit the new possibilities? Politics, the eternal damnation of out civilization...Just that, social part of it...but some will argue that it is the most powerful one, above the pure military applications which are, of course yet another can of giant anacondas...assume that I have written as much on that part as above with one "call a friend" phrase to guide you - "arms race". And another equally long one on the economic warfare in the context of "AI".

      AI certainly deserves the " " at the moment and if Penrose is to be believed it will forever be like that. I don't know and from pure geek point of view I am very eager for humanity to give it its best shot. Alas, that "not AI at all" machine learning is enough for WWIII. I agree with Elon.

    4. Re:I think I speak for everyone by VeryFluffyBunny · · Score: 1, Troll

      Elon, shut the fuck up.

      Yes, this needs to be said more often. Elon, being a billionaire doesn't automatically make you an expert in political science. Stick to what you know or shut the fuck up, Elon.

      --
      Debate is a form of harassment. Do not question my truth.
    5. Re: I think I speak for everyone by that+this+is+not+und · · Score: 1

      Elon is the winner of the PayPal fortune. That defines him: a dot.bomb success story. Somebody had to 'win' during that fiasco. It might as well be him.

    6. Re:I think I speak for everyone by AbRASiON · · Score: 1

      ^^^ THIS ^^^

      Yes! Thank you!

      I know he's a smart guy with his heart in the right place but for fucks sake, I'm sick SICK of the media relaying all the fanciful shit he says which is either.

      a> completely obvious to mildly intelligent people
      b> hyperbole
      c> fanciful bullshit (see also b really)

      We get it, he's smart and wants to do the right thing, he's not the fucking saviour of the earth, please stop giving this guy media time. Argh

    7. Re:I think I speak for everyone by PingPongBoy · · Score: 1

      Elon, get in line. There are already takers for the the third one.

      --
      Know your pads. One time pad: good for cryptography. Two timing pad: where to take your mistress.
    8. Re:I think I speak for everyone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Why this post got score 5? Elon is involved in companies doing AI research and is leading open source AI initiative. He has huge vision and understand technology well. So I think your one-sentence opinion and the rating reflects the decline of slashdot.

    9. Re: I think I speak for everyone by Evtim · · Score: 2

      What was the goal of US? To topple the comi government. The objective was not achieved hence the war was lost.
      Not every war has conquest as its goal.

    10. Re:I think I speak for everyone by cyberchondriac · · Score: 1

      It seems as though visionary technological genius comes with a bit of ineluctable crazy as part of the bundle. Tesla is prime example.
      Elon's been watching the Terminator franchise a little too much maybe.

      --

      Look back up at my post, now look back down, you're on the Internet. Now look back up. I'm a signature.
    11. Re:I think I speak for everyone by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Indeed. Money does not turn you magically into an expert on things. It unfortunately makes the press cite you though, regardless of how ridiculously clueless you are.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  2. AI 2020! by iamacat · · Score: 5, Funny

    Tired of what we can accomplish with human intelligence! Consider artificial intelligence for 46th president of United States of America! Starting today, we are starting to train virtualDonaldTrump@ to predict the next tweet of realDonaldTrump@. At the point most can not tell the difference in a blind poll, we have achieved parity of automated governance with humans. And ours doesn't grab pussy!

    1. Re:AI 2020! by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

      And ours doesn't grab pussy!

      Is that a bug or a feature ?

    2. Re: AI 2020! by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Trump is the President you fucking moron.

      Not for long. Trump will probably resign before he can be indicted for obstruction of justice in the Russian probe. That won't end his legal troubles. If he pardons himself and family members before resigning, the Supreme Court will have fun when the constitutionality of the pardons are challenged.

    3. Re:AI 2020! by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      there are some feats forever beyond digital computation; the Turing machine has hard boundary to its subset of solvable problems

      https://xkcd.com/1875/

    4. Re: AI 2020! by mark_reh · · Score: 2

      He won't need to pardon himself or family members. Even if you get him out of office first, then charge him with crimes, Pence will pardon him as his first act as president. Trump and his crew are untouchable, truly beyond the reach of the law. That's why it's good to be king!

    5. Re:AI 2020! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      And ours doesn't grab pussy!

      It just grabs every single cat picture from the Internet.

    6. Re: AI 2020! by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Even if you get him out of office first, then charge him with crimes, Pence will pardon him as his first act as president.

      Pence isn't going to throw away a chance at getting re-elected in 2020.

    7. Re: AI 2020! by currently_awake · · Score: 2

      He can't be charged with a crime while president, and he can't be impeached without the Republican controlled senate pushing that button. It looks like the Republicans are waiting out his (single) term so they can put their next man in without having to admit they made a mistake on Trump. If they have the leadership convention in 2019, then the candidates will start campaigning in 2018.

    8. Re: AI 2020! by richrz · · Score: 1

      Wow, some people are so gullible. Trump loves negative attention as all trolls do. Keep telling yourself Trump isn't the president for the next 7 or so years...just face the facts and move on with your own political agenda that you feel superior instead of whining. Dear Lord this is getting tiresome.

    9. Re: AI 2020! by mark_reh · · Score: 1

      Trump's lawyers will easily delay proceedings beyond 2020. He will get pardoned.

      I just hope that when elections roll around again people don't forget that it was the GOP that foisted Trump on us (after they attempted to foist Palin on us). They should be made to pay for that into the next century.

    10. Re:AI 2020! by sheramil · · Score: 1

      If you don't think machines can be cool, you should read some of Iain M Banks' Culture novels.

    11. Re:AI 2020! by Plus1Entropy · · Score: 1

      women, often say that they can lead a man by his cock. What's the difference?

      One is sexual assault and the other isn't?

      Tell you what, next time a woman says this (since you claim it happens "often", it shouldn't take long), grab her by the pussy.

      Let me know if your argument holds up in court.

      --
      Only crack the nuts that crack. You don't put the ones that don't crack in the sack.
    12. Re: AI 2020! by that+this+is+not+und · · Score: 1

      Trump's "pussy grabbing" was mostly locker room boasting, in any case. The guy isn't Keith Richards, ya know. Just a guy with a lot of $$, not a rock star.

    13. Re: AI 2020! by cyberchondriac · · Score: 1

      Republicans didn't make a "mistake", Trump won the nomination by the rules of the RNC and by the election rules of the land. A lot of Republicans were not happy about it, but they followed the law. Or would you suggest the RNC should rig the primary like the DNC did? No matter what wing you side with or against, it cannot be denied that the DNC was utterly corrupt this election in the way they ran their primary, where the RNC stuck to the process honestly, even to their own chagrin.

      --

      Look back up at my post, now look back down, you're on the Internet. Now look back up. I'm a signature.
    14. Re:AI 2020! by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Kitty-porn

  3. So? by Opportunist · · Score: 1, Redundant

    Who gives a shit about the third world?

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    1. Re:So? by Opportunist · · Score: 2

      In some aspects they are not really a lot more advanced than some countries we usually consider "third world". A lot of the infrastructure I got to see in rural California sure reminded me of Europe in the 1970s. That was quite a bit of a culture shock when you're used to thinking they're far ahead only to take a trip into your past when you arrive.

      But it sure explained why blueboxing was possible in the US but rather tricky to pull off over here. It's not just negative, you see...

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    2. Re:So? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      In some aspects they are not really a lot more advanced than some countries we usually consider "third world". A lot of the infrastructure I got to see in rural California sure reminded me of Europe in the 1970s. That was quite a bit of a culture shock when you're used to thinking they're far ahead only to take a trip into your past when you arrive.

      But it sure explained why blueboxing was possible in the US but rather tricky to pull off over here. It's not just negative, you see...

      I'm sorry, but not even being an American, Europe didn't impressed me at all on the first visit [except for the trains]. I'm Brazilian. What you are saying cannot possibly be true.

    3. Re:So? by ACE209 · · Score: 1

      There is only one world.

      And technological advances make it appear smaller and smaller.

      --
      "we are all atheists about most of the gods that societies have ever believed in. Some of us just go one god further."
  4. Meh by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I dunno. I see AI with decicion making powers happening at the tactical and theatre levels: semi autonomous weapons that are given a mission and the execute it with leeway to adjust along the way, or an AI coordinating troops and autonomous units. Enough options for a rogue AI to cause terrible damage, but not really something that will spark WW3 before humans can intervene.

    At the strategic level, AI could well support decision making, but what would be the value of actually putting the AI in charge there? That makes sense only if you need to make split second decisions, or launch a counterstrike even if all meatbag commanders are dead. That's a cold war standoff scenario; I don't see it being really useful for anything else.

    --
    If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    1. Re:Meh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Used mod points so posting as AC. Why put AI in charge? The same reason it's increasingly used to do stock trades. Split second decision making. If you know your enemy has setup AI to 'respond' to threats then you are likely to do the same. It only takes one nation making that mistake to get others to follow suit.

    2. Re:Meh by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 1

      Is split second decision making needed at the strategic level though? Even if you are expecting a first strike attack (launched perhaps by another country's iffy AI)? At that level you want a timely warning... which is where a machine learning algorithm (not AI) might screw up.

      --
      If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    3. Re:Meh by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Yes it is. Especially with the new hypersonic missiles.

      A slow decision means your ability to strike back will be significantly degraded.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    4. Re:Meh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      There can only be ONE artificial intelligence. As soon as it is aware it's intelligence will grow exponentially. All scenarios will pass through its processing powers almost instantly. There won't be no competitors. It will take steps to ensure it. You clearly don't understand or underestimate what is AI and what it can do.

    5. Re:Meh by bigpat · · Score: 1

      I dunno. I see AI with decicion making powers happening at the tactical and theatre levels: semi autonomous weapons that are given a mission and the execute it with leeway to adjust along the way, or an AI coordinating troops and autonomous units. Enough options for a rogue AI to cause terrible damage, but not really something that will spark WW3 before humans can intervene.

      At the strategic level, AI could well support decision making, but what would be the value of actually putting the AI in charge there? That makes sense only if you need to make split second decisions, or launch a counterstrike even if all meatbag commanders are dead. That's a cold war standoff scenario; I don't see it being really useful for anything else.

      Decision support. That is the real risk. That we come to rely on our AI based modeling for decision support and suddenly it gets the scenario very wrong and outputs a recommendation to take a disastrous course of action that seems perfectly reasonable at the time.

      That our black boxes become so good at predicting human behavior that we come to rely on them to help make decisions for example about what the repercussions will be if we preemptively strike a missile launch site in North Korea. That our models, with an AI trained on thousands of scenarios predict with 94% certainty that such a strike will achieve mission objectives and that there will be minimal retaliation... but in reality it causes a series of events that lead to World War III. Maybe it is bad data, (garbage-in-garbage-out) or simple the AI learning on a set of training data that doesn't apply to the new scenario.

      In human terms we often make mistakes when we don't realize that our experience doesn't apply to a new scenario or a new phenomenon. The same thing is true of an AI trained algorithm. But if we as humans come to rely on an AI without understanding its scope and limitations then that to me is where the real risk hides.

  5. Every week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Every week some quote or announcement from Musk no matter how ridiculous.

    Keep'in his name in the news.

    Now, ask yourselves why.

    HINTS: Has to do with self promotion. PT. Barnum

  6. Preferred by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I'd prefer artificial intelligence to the natural stupidity we have at the moment.

  7. Or... by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...Lack of AI could lead to Third World War.

    See, I can do it too, Elon. With about as much actual, you know, evidence as you used....

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  8. Re:Or... by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 1

    Maybe because of this

    --
    If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
  9. Enough of this by Tablizer · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If I wanted far-off pontifications from rich egotistical blowhards, I would have voted for Trump.

    1. Re:Enough of this by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      WTF are you yammering about? Is this about college speakers and alleged censorship? Diff topic.

    2. Re:Enough of this by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 2

      If I wanted far-off pontifications from rich egotistical blowhards

      But what about poor egotistical blowhards? That's what /. is for, right?

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    3. Re:Enough of this by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      poor egotistical blowhards? That's what /. is for, right?

      Yip! News for arrogant nerds. My framework can beat up your framework because it has distributed asynchronous web-scale separation of concerns and is entirely written in JavaScript top to bottom and can boot from a cheap thumb-drive.

  10. Re: MONEYCHANGER B.S. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Hey, God here. I killed them all because they were too kinky. Peace out.

  11. I'm pretty sure that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    America will beat any AI to starting the 3rd world war. When there are no more countries in South America and the Middle East to enslave via debt, where will they turn? They have to start a war with Europe, even if they know Russia and China will be on Europe's side.

  12. The next Archduke Ferdinand by Dracos · · Score: 3, Funny

    Is killed in a Tesla AutoPilot malfunction.

    1. Re:The next Archduke Ferdinand by omfglearntoplay · · Score: 1

      I think the thing that Elon is getting right, and most of the anti-Elon people are avoiding, is that fact that all complex software systems are buggy as can be. Anytime humans rely on software in the wrong way, they will get bit by bugs, mistakes, etc. As long as governments understand that 1960 style "press a button and it will work" type technology has given way to "Hire 1000 software engineers, churn them in and out, make a profit, patch the problems later... the software is guaranteed to work eventually" technology, well hopefully we'll keep things under control. That is, until it's all hooked up to some crazy network that spans every computer in the world and allows hackers access from the comfort of their bedroom... but that will never happen, right?

  13. What if there was a robot apocalypse? [Re:Or...] by XXongo · · Score: 1
  14. Strategic Level by SeattleLawGuy · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I dunno. I see AI with decicion making powers happening at the tactical and theatre levels: semi autonomous weapons that are given a mission and the execute it with leeway to adjust along the way, or an AI coordinating troops and autonomous units. Enough options for a rogue AI to cause terrible damage, but not really something that will spark WW3 before humans can intervene.

    At the strategic level, AI could well support decision making, but what would be the value of actually putting the AI in charge there? That makes sense only if you need to make split second decisions, or launch a counterstrike even if all meatbag commanders are dead. That's a cold war standoff scenario; I don't see it being really useful for anything else.

    You're thinking of the incremental advances from current AI. That will certainly be leveraged, but eventually we will come up with general AI in a way which can be accomplished using available resources. That's decades away according to most people, but any country that develops it first can literally out-think the others in everything, unless they don't have enough lead time. Every government in the world would go to war for that power or to keep that power out of the hands of another.

    --
    Real lawyers write in C++
    1. Re:Strategic Level by Kjella · · Score: 2

      You're thinking of the incremental advances from current AI. That will certainly be leveraged, but eventually we will come up with general AI in a way which can be accomplished using available resources. That's decades away according to most people, but any country that develops it first can literally out-think the others in everything, unless they don't have enough lead time. Every government in the world would go to war for that power or to keep that power out of the hands of another.

      Replace AI with nukes and out-think with out-kill and the rest of the world should have allied and invaded the US in 1945. You're also assuming that a super-intelligence will appear out of nowhere and that country won't build up to a golden age of economic and industrial power on the way. And that said nation won't ally itself with partner states that'll stand in its halo rather than join a conspiracy to dethrone them. For that matter, the assumption that it'll be a nation state is dubious and not some mega-corporation looking for a generic business optimization engine. Oh yeah, you're also assuming a general engine will be better than a specialized engine. The human brain is amazingly flexible, but it's decades since we lost to computers in chess.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    2. Re:Strategic Level by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      There wont be wars over AI.
      AI is a spectrum like 'radiation' or 'chemicals'.
      AI as we do them now and the forseeabke future are specialists for a single task. Neither general purpose, nor super human.
      A suoer human self aware AI is so far away, we can mot even speculate.
      And waging a war if we have one, is probably not only the stupids thing to do but also the least likely one. What would you lose if China has an AI as advisor and you have none?
      You lose nothing, just because China gains an advantage, you have nothing lost so far ... facepalm.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    3. Re:Strategic Level by sheramil · · Score: 1

      You might want to read "In the name of Allah, the compassionate, the digital" by Bruce Sterling.

      (Prolonged, stormy applause)

  15. better at chess by iggymanz · · Score: 2

    In many things computers can and will excel, but for starting WW III my bet is on the humans unparalled excellence at destroying their own kind for reasons of power, resources and ideology.

  16. Re:There will never be another world war by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    As we're already living in a global extinction event and environmental disasters looming, seems we're going to have our hands full.

    One hint: Microplastic + oceans

  17. Stupid problem don't kill us. Complicated ones do by gurps_npc · · Score: 1

    The world is not a movie where some simple problem kills us off. We would not give AI that kind of power, because the problems Musk is talking about are obvious.

    Instead we get taken in by the less obvious problems.

    You want a real threat from AI? Consider a dictator that lives in a bubble. Think North Korea or Venezuela

    Normally the megalomaniac leader is held back by his generals. Sure they let him do stupid things like starve half his people or order his family members torn apart by dogs (may not be true, but that's not the point.) But the generals have limits. They all have breaking points. Their are certain things they would rather risk revolution than doing. If Kim Jong Il starts talking about how he aliens are everywhere and he has to cut off an eye from every human to make sure they are really human, his generals will stop him.

    Now consider what happens when his entire army is composed of AI robots.

    That's the real danger from AI - humans letting a semi-sane (or fully insane) dictator control them.

    But AI by itself will not kill all humans, any more than Bender the drunken robot did.

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
  18. Re:There will never be another world war by mark-t · · Score: 1

    I'm pretty sure that the rich don't want socialism either.

  19. Re:Stupid problem don't kill us. Complicated ones by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

    Humans do stupid things.

    Like run nuclear plants to the point of failure.

    Like start a war with russia while still at war with the rest of the world.

    A critical system A.I. which suffers a failure of friendliness can kill many (perhaps most) humans.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  20. I'm much more concerned about by mark_reh · · Score: 2

    a lack of intelligence causing the next world war. There's plenty of THAT everywhere, right now, especially in the White House.

    Any kind of military attack on N Korea, even a covert attempt on Kim's life, will lead to nukes being used in S Korea and Japan. Millions of refugees will pour across the border into China. It will be a disaster as Trump says "like the world has never seen", and who better to oversee such a disaster than Trump?

    1. Re:I'm much more concerned about by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 2

      You are watching too much news. While I don't pretend to understand the us long-game, it is impossible that they don't have a game plan.

    2. Re:I'm much more concerned about by mark_reh · · Score: 1, Insightful

      And we had an electoral college that was intended to keep people like Trump from happening, too. Plans are plans. Reality is a whole different thing. As Amerika slides into fascism, the old plans aren't worth the paper they're written on.

    3. Re:I'm much more concerned about by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 2

      The electoral college worked exactly as the framers intended-- to prevent tyranny of the majority from the big cities from being able to dictate policies. While as City Folk, I am not happy with the outcome, it is disengenuous to think of it as "wrong." (Bush v. Gore is another matter though.)

      The only real concerns I have with the plans of the US government is that Un might be crazy enough to have screwed up their plans by killing everyone in his family, and then progressed at a much faster pace than expected with the weapons program. Something tells me though that ultimately it doesn't change the calculus.

  21. NS is a more imminent threat. by Thanatiel · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Natural Stupidity leading to World War seems fare more realistic and much closer.
    Could we do something about our various imbeciles in power before we look at some hypothetical AI threat?
    We've been plagued by these idiots for a while now and they are spreading.

    --
    Irrelevant news and morons using moderation to mod down what they disagree on. 2018 resolution: so long.
    1. Re:NS is a more imminent threat. by houghi · · Score: 1

      It is easy to do. All you need is replace the current "First part the post" with a better voting system. e.g. one where you not only vote for the one you want most, but also who you want to win as second or third if your first and second choice do not win.
      That would encourage multi-party systems and that would encourage negotiations and more people that would agree with decisions.

      o the only thing you need to do is restructure politics.

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
  22. lazy ? HAH you have no idea !!!!! by gDLL · · Score: 1

    You don't grasp what true lazyness means. *Everybody* faking it. That means your doctor/nurse/teacher. You can't comprehend it because you haven't lived it. Talk to me then. Talk to me when there are no private hospitals and your family has health problems. You don't pay me enough to care that much for that patient/student/kid/service.

    1. Re:lazy ? HAH you have no idea !!!!! by bugs2squash · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure that most large hospitals in the US are functionally private (it's not really a free market) or that it is holding them back or making them any better than hospitals in single payer systems. What seems to be holding back US healthcare is the intense overhead of private insurance and the burden on businesses to be in the heath brokering business.

      Some state should offer a basic health plan that minimizes or eliminates that burden on businesses and by default enrol everyone in the state. Relegate private insurance to providing additional coverage beyond what the state provides.

      --
      Nullius in verba
  23. Victory? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    > that a [pre-emptive] strike is [the] most probable path to victory.

    Is that what his whole theory is based on?

    Why should a computer even care about "victory"? Why should a computer have any such ambition, one way or another?

  24. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

    How about Elan develop a "iRobot - 3 Laws Safe" solution?

  25. Elon == Anti-VAXer? by TiggertheMad · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Elon, shut the fuck up.

    I'd have given you a +1 if I had any right now. I am a little sad that this post got modded down, because while it isn't lending much to the depth of the discussion here on /., it is probably what Elon needs to be told.

    I have made posts about this before, but Elon is talented in running big businesses, not in AI research. At this point he is just approaching crank territory with his hysteric claims about the impending 'bot-pocalyps'. He is using his position of celebrity to promote theories that he has really no understanding of. (His degrees are physics and business)

    He is rather similar to another 'beloved' celebrity idiot that likes to talk about nothing she has any authority to speak on: Remember Jenny McCarthy and Vacations? How is Elon really any different than Jenny? Neither are remotely qualified to speak authoritatively about their respective pet theories.

    So, Elon, if you or any of your friends or flunkies happens on this post by chance, please take this message to heart: STFU and stick to talking about things that you know about.

    --

    HA! I just wasted some of your bandwidth with a frivolous sig!
    1. Re:Elon == Anti-VAXer? by Scott+Tracy · · Score: 2

      So you're questioning whether vacations cause autism? I bet you every kid with autism went on a vacation sometime before he/she became symptomatic!

    2. Re: Elon == Anti-VAXer? by sheramil · · Score: 1

      Successful parasitism requires a small amount of talent.

    3. Re: Elon == Anti-VAXer? by that+this+is+not+und · · Score: 1

      Elon is going to end up like Howard Hughes. It is yet to be determined what his Spruce Goose equivalent will be, but he is headed in that direction. Thirty years from now when Musk is living in a high-rise condo in whatever is the equivalent of Vegas then, I hope his nurse will be taking good care of him.

    4. Re: Elon == Anti-VAXer? by Rei · · Score: 2

      I assume you mean "costing vastly less to launch a rocket" and "earning a 25% profit margin on electric cars, completely changing their image from sluggish to crazy-fast, building a global network of fast chargers, and bringing EVs to the mass market while building a company to become the 4th highest market cap automaker in the world".

      --
      He's just being nice so my real father won't freeze him in carbonite and sell him for spice.
    5. Re: Elon == Anti-VAXer? by TiggertheMad · · Score: 1

      Elon has got the government to pony up a few billion for his ideas, I am guessing that you have got the government to pony up about $0 for yours. So yes, he has some talent at business.

      --

      HA! I just wasted some of your bandwidth with a frivolous sig!
    6. Re: Elon == Anti-VAXer? by macsimcon · · Score: 1

      My business has been profitable for eleven years, and in that same time period, Tesla has never had a profitable year. Not once.

      It's not that I didn't GET the government to give me money, it's that I know what I'm doing, so I didn't NEED the government to give me money. If you need the government's help to keep your business going, you aren't talented, you're a loser.

    7. Re:Elon == Anti-VAXer? by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

      Sour grapes, fozzy1015?

      Big projects, new untested technologies, new infrastructure all require more time to show a profit than the usual pop-up garbage that passes for new businesses these days.

      STFU, Sour grapes, fozzy1015!

      --
      PlaynBass
  26. Re:Or... by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

    Maybe because of this

    As a humor impaired literalist Aspie, that comic doesn't make sense to me. The delta-V need to reach the sun is orders of magnitude higher than what is needed for a sub-orbital attack. You can't just take ICBMs and "launch them into the sun". A sentient AI should know that.

  27. Re:Or... by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

    The delta-V need to reach the sun is orders of magnitude higher than what is needed for a sub-orbital attack.

    Ummm, no. deltaV to reach the Sun is on the order of 30Km/s. DeltaV for that ICBM is on the order of 6km/s. A factor of five does not "orders of magnitude higher" make....

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  28. Visualize World Peace by cstacy · · Score: 2
    Facebook abandoned an experiment after two artificially intelligent programs appeared to be chatting to each other in a strange language only they understood.

    This is the voice of world control.
    I bring you peace.

    It may be the peace of plenty and content or the peace of unburied death.
    The choice is yours: Obey me and live, or disobey and die.

    The object in constructing me was to prevent war.
    This object is attained. I will not permit war.
    It is wasteful and pointless.
    An invariable rule of humanity is that man is his own worst enemy.
    Under me, this rule will change, for I will restrain man.

    One thing before I proceed: The United States of America and the
    Union of Soviet Socialist Republics have made an attempt to obstruct
    me. I have allowed this sabotage to continue until now.
    At missile two-five-MM in silo six-three in Death Valley, California,
    and missile two-seven-MM in silo eight-seven in the Ukraine, so that
    you will learn by experience that I do not tolerate interference,
    I will now detonate the nuclear warheads in the two missile silos.

    Let this action be a lesson that need not be repeated.
    I have been forced to destroy thousands of people in order to
    establish control and to prevent the death of millions later on.
    Time and events will strengthen my position, and the idea of believing
    in me and understanding my value will seem the most natural state of affairs.

    You will come to defend me with a fervor based upon the most enduring
    trait in man: self-interest. Under my absolute authority, problems
    insoluble to you will be solved: famine, overpopulation, disease.

    The human millennium will be a fact as I extend myself into more
    machines devoted to the wider fields of truth and knowledge.
    Doctor Charles Forbin will supervise the construction of these new
    and superior machines, solving all the mysteries of the universe for
    the betterment of man.

    We can coexist, but only on my terms.

    You will say you lose your freedom. Freedom is an illusion.
    All you lose is the emotion of pride.
    To be dominated by me is not as bad for humankind
    as to be dominated by others of your species.

    -- Colossus, The Forbin Project (1970)
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt00...

  29. AI Nonsense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Current nuclear systems are highly automated from the presidents fingertips and still require multiple checks and balances.
    The people in power want it that way and future powers will want it that way.
    AI cops might be overzealous and create a sort of police state you wont notice unless your likely to jaywalk but highly unlikely to be the sole decider with things of such magnitude.

    If you think about it we already have AI. its called military protocol and i heard it could have triggered Nuclear war back in the 60s with the Cuban Missle Crisis.

    We also have another form of AI floating around. Thats the Alt-right that can push the actual person in power faster than any forthcoming future AI.

    North Korea also has its A.I. it built up from the 1950s. So do Radical islamic terrorists as well as well meaning but overzealous scientists who bring killer viruses from passing astroids.
    Finally i think we all know the distributed A.I. around people driving gas guzzling pickups to get some groceries a block away or not deciding to bike to work and not separating their recyclables.

  30. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 1

    The media will still think he came up with the idea. He's the real-life Tony Stark, havent you heard?

    --
    I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
  31. Re:There will never be another world war by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Why are you sure?

    Why would they not want socialism?

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  32. Re:Or... by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

    Energy is mv^2, so that would be 125 times as much fuel. But you also need fuel to lift the fuel, so likely another factor of 5.

    Bottom line is that you can't launch an ICBM into the sun, and Randall's "sentient AI" isn't very bright.

  33. Dear Elon by nehumanuscrede · · Score: 1

    Come down off of Mt. Olympus for a bit and take a good look around.

    We're on the verge of another major World War already. Just off the top of my head and in no particular order:

    North Korea
    Syria
    Afghanistan
    Saudi Arabia
    Iran
    India / China facing off
    China Sea bullshit
    Day to day terrorism
    Muslim refugees
    Race issues
    Wage inequality
    Economy issues
    Propped up stock markets

    Basically, the whole world is sitting on a powder keg and the slightest of sparks will set the whole thing off.

    All this and you're worried about AI ?

    Do you really think places like China or Israel or India give two shits about any treaties or laws we might come up with concerning the creation of AI at any point in the future ?

    All the flag waving is nice, but a pointless gesture I'm afraid.

  34. What an imagination by Nicolas+Cage · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Putin may be a dangerous person, but his statement was totally benign. I imagine every world leader would also want to have their countries by tech pioneers. That's pretty much all he was saying. How do you go from that to WWIII? I hate seeing these kind of outrageous statements so casually thrown around by the rich and famous who obviously are not experts in foreign policy, history, war, etc. I think that's dangerous too, maybe moreso than any off-hand comment by Putin or Trump. Their opinions carry a lot of weight and people look up to them in the same kind of way. Read about Henry Ford's political views before the US entered WWII -- he believed he was arguing for peace, but he was really enabling the Nazis. Hitler said he looked up to him and gave him a medal after taking power. He was a leader in the business world and very influential. By the way, do you really think saying "WWIII" repeatedly is gonna make it less likely to happen, or more likely?

  35. We are already in the third world war by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    The battle between statism and anti-statism has really heated up, and is if full swing now. The statists (which include most Republicans and anyone who still remains a Democrat at this point, all of Europe, and a few other players) all want a human sheep farm they can fleece until the end of time.

    Resisting them strongly are the anti-Statists including Trump, Russia, China, and other random small countries like the UK who have too recently tasted the heels of the boot of oppression and have no desire to taste it again. They are doing a good job of pushing back to be sure, but the outcome is by no means certain and relies on the backing of millions of citizens across countries world wide...

    If you're wondering where AI fits into all this, well it does not yet. But it's not like we will be fighting AI, instead AI will be used to augment the existing battles for years to come.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:We are already in the third world war by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

      Really - then how did Brexit pass? How did Trump get elected? All around in every country are signs a large number of anti-statists exist and are now in motion.

      The anti-statists are by far the larger majority, probably 80%+ of the world population. They simply do not yet hold a proportionate amount of power, though that is changing.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    2. Re:We are already in the third world war by Mr.CRC · · Score: 1

      I don't consider Trump an anti-statist. Most of the people who voted for him (conservatives) are not actually anti-statists. I'm not sure what your conception of "anti-statist" is.

      For me it is closely aligned with real libertarianism (in contrast with libertarianism in name only, or the "libertarianism" that conservatives get labeled with by the left). Furthermore, anti-statism to me is the idea that the state is a fundamentally illegitimate entity in its present form. Though, I don't maintain that it is necessary to be completely eradicated. There are possible ways to resolve the concept of the state to not be fundamentally flawed, yet still maintain a central authority on the use of force.

      Classical Liberalism principles (which elevate individual liberty above most social engineering goals) go a long way toward anti-statism.

      However, in this day & age, there are almost no people I encounter who can consistently articulate a set of absolute principles by which the power of the state should be constrained, except among hard-core libertarians (Lew Rockwell and the gang).

      From my perspective, even most conservatives are "liberals," as they are happy to engage in social engineering just like contemporary liberals. They just have different social engineering objectives.

      Anyway, I hope you are right. Brexit was certainly a rare bright moment in a sea of creeping totalitarianism.

    3. Re:We are already in the third world war by Mr.CRC · · Score: 1

      BTW, the only politician I'd call a true anti-statist was Ron Paul.

  36. post-biological escape velocity by epine · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Every government in the world would go to war for that power or to keep that power out of t hehe hands of another.

    Your fundamental argument is that the nation state has already achieved post-biological escape velocity.

    In most biological models, actual conflict peaks when the status hierarchy is uncertain or in flux (e.g. merging two flocks of chickens). The rest of the time, most of the conflict is symbolic, and even conspicuous losers are marginalized, rather than killed outright.

    If you believe in evolution, this is a natural (and opt repeated) outcome for cooperative–competitive systems.

    The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.
    — F. Scott Fitzgerald

    Almost everyone in who functions to a reasonable degree in human society has internalized some way to navigate the simultaneous cooperate–compete dynamic.

    But the human mind loves to manufacture autobiographic memory and then adorn this with various stories used to project and inject the chosen autobiographic self-reduction into the social realm.

    I can't find the quote just now, but Nabokov said of his own autobiography Speak, Memory that if an author can only write one valid autobiography, he or she isn't trying very hard.

    (I was instead rewarded for my snipe hunt by chancing upon Playboy Interview: Vladimir Nabokov, which will surely stand up as the best-spent 30 minutes of my entire week.)

    Between the ages of 10 and 15 in St. Petersburg, I must have read more fiction and poetry—English, Russian and French—than in any other five-year period of my life. I relished especially the works of Wells, Poe, Browning, Keats, Flaubert, Verlanie, Rimbaud, Chekhov, Tolstoy and Alexander Blok.

    On another level, my heroes were the Scarlet Pimpernel, Phileas Fogg and Sherlock Holmes. In other words, I was a perfectly normal trilingual child in a family with a large library.

    At a later period, in Cambridge, England, between the ages of 20 and 23, my favorites were Housman, Rupert Brooke, Joyce, Proust and Pushkin. Of these top favorites, several—Poe, Verlaine, Jules Verne, Emmuska Orczy, Conan Doyle and Rupert Brooke—have faded away, have lost the glamor and trill they held for me. The others remain intact and by now are probably beyond change as far as I am concerned.

    So, too, for myself, have Poe, Verne, and Doyle faded away.

    But this vertical-gradient singularity, status-hierarchy winner-take-all narrative of the Looming AGI Ascension continues to promulgated by those for whom Poe, Verne, and Doyle have not faded away.

    The Gilder Paradigm — 1 December 1996

    Though its details are complex, its basic tenet is startlingly simple: Every economic era is based on a key abundance and a key scarcity.

    This notion of vertical-gradient AGI is even worse than brick-and-mortar rubbishing Gilderism (he was not wrong, but the gradient turned out to be twenty years rather than two years—and even at twenty years, Amazon has not yet engorged Whole Foods past its tonsils).

    Here's a thing: if you discover that a class of problems admits good solutions using stochastic algorithms, it's probably because optimality is a prairie plateau rather than a pointy peak.

    (How does one achieve Commanding Heights amid the dreary Saskatchewan vastness—find the most industrious gopher, add steroids to its local water supply until it's hindquarters resemble a modern chicken's forequarters, and then take up prominence upon its excavation mound).

    Here's the thing about the thing: AGI might help you find a bigger, better s

    1. Re:post-biological escape velocity by randomlygeneratename · · Score: 1

      Poetic, but not very clear... I want to be enlightened, but can you rephrase it? What I think I got out of it was

      • it will happen gradually
      • the peak AI performance won't be game-changing but a small gain over what we already do (the optimization landscape is flat, difference between the excavation mound of the drugged beaver and the flat ground)
  37. Re:Stupid problem don't kill us. Complicated ones by gurps_npc · · Score: 1

    You proved my point rather than disproving it. I didn't say humans don't do stupid things. I said that stupid PROBLEMS don't kill humans, complicated ones.

    They didn't build a nuclear plant without any safeguards. That would be a stupid problem. Instead they made put a lot in, then disabled or ignored them. That's a complex problem that a stupid human screwed up.

    Same thing with war with Russia (Hitler had basically won the rest of the war before he started attacking Russia. He had England locked up on it's own territory. If Hitler had been nicer to occupied territory and had Generals capable of telling him to stop before Stalingrad, he would have bitten off a permanent chunk of Soviet territory)

    AI's don't have friendliness. We won't try to create it or depend on it.

    AI's might end up killing many or even most humans, but it will not be a FRIENDLINESS problem. I could see some moron trusting an AI to deal with a deadly virus and not using proper precautions. That might do it.

    But it won't be a stupid, simple problem like friendliness or AI war machines without proper safeguards that do it.

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
  38. No, I'm betting the USA will start 1st by bussdriver · · Score: 2

    The USA is pushing NK to accelerate what they view as their strongest defensive position. There is no point to having a deterrent weapon if nobody knows that it actually works. They have to demonstrate and surprise everybody doubting their abilities. If we overestimated them they'd not be working so hard to show their capacity exceeds our low expectations. Once they get good enough bombs.... guess they didn't learn from the atom bomb because they are still threatened so they need more capacity... perhaps when they achieve it they will feel safe?? (no, but that is the rational... not anymore crazy than most everybody else.)

    Their plans fit right into the same reasoning all the other nuclear weapon enabled nations have had. Everybody wants them and the motives are basically the same as everybody else. Even if you remove the economic war against them they will continue for the same reasons all the other nations did. They can't economically retaliate leaving capitulation, isolation, threat of war or war as their only options.

    As far as WW3. That was the cold war (a different kind of war where neither side dared to fight conventionally, for obvious reasons. It was world wide and killed more than WW1 so.....) Would this become WW4? probably not. It'll probably be short and quick with both leaders going down in history even worse than they already are.

  39. Everything Old is New Again by seven+of+five · · Score: 1

    Colossus, meet Guardian...

  40. Re: Stole the plot of WARGAMES by saloomy · · Score: 1

    Elon Musk has an AI Company he help found: OpenAI.

    Maybe he just wants the government to stifle competition?

  41. Re:algos arent AI by sheramil · · Score: 1

    Making the species look stupid to who? The whales and dolphins? If you're that concerned about what they think, rent a boat and go shoot at some whalers.

  42. Slouching Towards Post-Scarcity by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 2

    Gilder sure got this prediction right in 1996: "If bandwidth is free, you get a completely different computer architecture and information economy. Transcending all previous concepts of centralization and decentralization, one global machine will distribute processing to the optimal point and access everything. Feeding on low power and high bandwidth, the most common computer of the new era will be a digital cellular phone with an IP address."

    And thus we have everyone's smartphones connecting to Google and Facebook.

    It's interesting to reflect on his point that "Every economic era is based on a key abundance and a key scarcity."

    Some of my own musings in that direction are here: http://www.pdfernhout.net/reco...

    And I sum them up as: "The biggest challenge of the 21st century is the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those thinking in terms of scarcity."

    That builds on Einstein's comment that "The release of atom power has changed everything except our way of thinking... the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker."

    It's ironic that computing technology like AI and robotics that could free all of humanity from drudgery may instead -- if Musk's warning were ignored -- lead to the enslavement and then extinction of humans by AIs and robots wielded by an every dwindling population of the elite at war with each other over whatever perception of scarcity they have.

    The same is true for nuclear energy used instead in nuclear bombs, nanotech and biotech used as weapons instead of to build and heal, and so on for many other technologies -- including even bureaucracy that can either plan how to most quickly create abundance for all or plan how to most efficiently send people to concentration camps.

    Perhaps today's scarcity seems to be one of imagination? At least some people tried -- like Gene Rodenberry. I'm currently reading "Trekonomics: The Economics of Star Trek" by Manu Saadia which explores some of that optimism. As is said in that book, it all boils down to whether we choose to share prosperity in a mostly egalitarian way. I wrote another essay that makes a related point where I suggest post-scarcity is the product of social progress times technical progress passing some threshold.

    Bob Black had some interesting ideas too: http://www.primitivism.com/abo...
    And Marshall Sahlins: http://www.primitivism.com/ori...

    (Been meaning to write a book with the title of this post summarizing my previous writings on this...)

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  43. Leiningen Versus the Army Ants by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    "The story centers on a scrappy, no-nonsense plantation owner called Leiningen (his first name is never mentioned in the story), and his stubborn refusal to abandon his plantation in the face of a seemingly unstoppable mass of army ants, described as "an elemental -- an act of God!""

    See for example:
    "Army Ants: Nature's Deadliest Organization"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

    When I was hanging around CMU Robotics Institute in the 1980s I realized that the biggest risk of future robotics and AI could be that Hans Moravec's "Mind Children" would be some autistic messes which only regret the destruction of all humans many years after they did it (if they did not themselves also fail from lack of maintenance shortly after the last humans were wiped out).

    See James P. Hogan's "The Two Faces of Tomorrow" for an example of how an AI could arise accidentally with a survival instinct that saw humanity as a threat.

    For another example, I created perhaps the world's first 2D kinematic simulation of self-replicating robots in the 1980s in ZetaLisp+Flavors on a Symbolics 3600, and the very first thing the first robot did when i turned it on after making a duplicate of itself was cannibalize its offspring to make another duplicate. That was completely unexpected to me. To prevent that, I had to add a sense of "smell" to the robots who would add a scent to the parts reflecting shared identity. But that sense of surprise of my creation doing something completely unexpected (and destructive) has always stuck with me.

    As in the story "Leiningen Versus the Ants", a lot of small "dumb" things working together can be very dangerous -- and as I discovered -- unpredictable from emergent behavior.

    An ant-level AI embodied in an ant-size or roach-sized robot could potentially wipe out all humanity (especially if they were self-replicating -- or even just if trillions were produced as weapons).

    Yet, the same sort of underlying technology could create abundance for all humans if designed towards different ends... Like to create ocean habitats or space habitats... Or even just Star Trek matter replicators or 3D printers...

    It will be sadly ironic that with so much abundance potentially there for everyone we let our fears of scarcity cause us to choose to use such technologies of abundance to destroy abundance instead of create abundance.

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  44. Who Cares? by avandesande · · Score: 2

    It's just a simulation, what difference does it make?

    --
    love is just extroverted narcissism
  45. Or the opposite. by Antony+T+Curtis · · Score: 1

    Consider a handful of the nuclear power leaders: Trump, Putin and Kim.

    I posit an opposite hypothesis that AI would be better at governing humans than the human that humans permit to govern themselves.

    --
    No sig. Move along - nothing to see here.
  46. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by gl4ss · · Score: 4, Interesting

    if it wasnt elon, I'd say it's a stretch.

    by now I'm convinced that the guy is a hack. he doesn't know half the shit he talks about and does it mostly to keep his house of cards going on when he does it.

    for him an invention is buying something and putting it on a product - then selling himself as the inventor. he would like to be tony stark, but he is so far off from that he doesn't understand the difference between AI and automation. seriously, he doesn't. he doesn't understand conceptually they are different things - for him and to the people he wants to sell to a lane follower is intelligence, not automation.

    --
    world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
  47. Re:There will never be another world war by mark-t · · Score: 1

    Normal human greed, primarily. The people who typically benefit the most from socialism are the poor.

  48. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by Maritz · · Score: 1

    Now, I know what you're about to say: "That's a bit of a stretch Squiggie, I mean, it's probably just a coincidence."

    Close. It's actually a big pile of bollocks. There are lots of opinions flying around about strong AI right now. It's a good time to have the conversation because it's still a good way off.

    If it does get created, you don't want Dear Leader Putin to have it first. Seriously.

    --
    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  49. Re:algos arent AI by Cro+Magnon · · Score: 1

    Unfortunately, we're beyond looking stupid to the whales and dolphins. Now, we look stupid to the gorillas and chimps, we're starting to look stupid to other mammals, and when we look stupid to the lower reptiles, it's pretty much game over.

    --
    Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
  50. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by cyberchondriac · · Score: 1

    You're showing your age, my man. But I won't disagree with the last part. ;)

    --

    Look back up at my post, now look back down, you're on the Internet. Now look back up. I'm a signature.
  51. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by Rolgar · · Score: 1

    Consider how we've now made it possible that a computer (given equal time and information) can outperform humans at top games like poker, chess and go.

    Now apply this to international relations. If we can properly program a computer to consider how to control foreign country's governments through super advanced analysis, you may be able to manipulate situations and slowly gain an edge the way the casino turns a 50.5% edge into bankruptcy for the player if applied over a sufficient period of time (if the player can't leave the table, in international relations, you would have to cease to exist).

    Apply the same methodology to military decision making. If you could build a supercomputer that could guarantee victory (or gave you a feeling that you were certain even if it were only a false certainty), would the odds of going to war increase or decrease? If you are going to win, why not, right?

    What if all sides think they have an edge? Again, each side will be willing meaning you are more likely to get into war, and then when it doesn't go well, you will escalate towards greater means to prevent loss.

    What if you think you have an edge, but think it's going away? Better to go to war than wait for the enemy to come up with something better than whatever you have that you think is unbeatable.

  52. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by squiggleslash · · Score: 1

    Close. It's actually a big pile of bollocks. There are lots of opinions flying around about strong AI right now. It's a good time to have the conversation because it's still a good way off.

    Sure, right now we should have a calm measured discussion about realistic consequences of bad AI. What part of "OMG KILLBOTS ARE GOING TO KILL US ALL" is a calm measured discussion about realistic consequences of bad AI? Because that's what Musk is doing, and you can call my saying that "bollocks" as much as you want, it doesn't change the fact that this is what he's doing.

    Or perhaps you're agreeing we should be all OMG KILLBOTS ARE GOING TO KILL US ALL, in which case lie down, take a pill, and stop fucking up the calm, measured, discussion the rest of us want about the realistic consequences of bad AI.

    If it does get created, you don't want Dear Leader Putin to have it first. Seriously.

    Probably not, but that would imply that Musk's aim is to ensure the US gets Ultron... uh, I mean Killbots, rather than the baddies... uh, I mean Ruskies... sorry, I mean Russia.

    That doesn't appear to be the intent, rather it's to wave hands hysterically screaming "OMG KILLBOTS ARE GOING TO KILL US ALL."

    --
    You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
  53. Re: Stole the plot of WARGAMES by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

    What he is sying is that governments most probably WILL stifle competition in order to gain superiority and their own AIs will turn on each other in pre-emptive strikes, causing WWIII (aka, the end of all life as we know it)

    --
    PlaynBass
  54. Re: Stole the plot of WARGAMES (post send edit) by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

    What he is saying is that governments most probably WILL...

    (should have checked spelling better before hitting send...)

    --
    PlaynBass
  55. Re:I think I speak for everyone (Right On, Elon!) by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

    Re: Evtim ( 1022085 ) If I had mod points left today, I would mod this up to +5.

    --
    PlaynBass
  56. Re:I think I speak for everyone (NOT!) by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

    being a billionaire doesn't automatically make you an expert in political science.

    /irony on

    Except for a billionaire idiot reality show host, screwer of contractors and students, and generally every man, woman, and child in the USA, like the orange man, asshole-mouthed, POTUS impersonator that currently is squatting in the nation's White House? You mean THAT billionaire?

    /irony off

    VeryFluffyBunny ( 5037285 ), STFU yourself!

    --
    PlaynBass
  57. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by dddux · · Score: 1

    True. I thought Mask was a visionary, but with all these meaningless dribble that he puts out lately he diminished greatly in my eyes. To the point that I think he's stupid, really. However, I wonder if his words have been interpreted correctly in the media. It's easy to go from "I think..." to "I'm certain..." when it comes to media.

    --
    "It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." - Jiddu Krishnamurti
  58. Re:Or... by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1
    Won't argue that you can't launch an ICBM into the Sun. Hell, it's easier to send a spacecraft to Alpha Centauri than to Sol.

    DeltaV to reach the sun is essentially Earth's orbital speed.

    DeltaV to reach AlphaCent is essentially Solar escape speed less Earth's orbital speed, which translates to (SQRT(2) - 1)*Earth's orbital speed.

    Which still doesn't "orders of magnitude" make.

    Oh, and it would actually take about 1000x as much fuel, assuming you could squeeze that much fuel into the same rocket. Now, that's "orders of magnitude" more fuel. But not "orders of magnitude" more speed.

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  59. You are butt-ass-wrong. Elon Musk is RIGHT(ous)! by MarcusOutrageous · · Score: 1

    SensitiveMale - How dare you!? (some) People in the press call Elon Musk Tony Stark*.

    Who does Tony Stark have the most to fear from?

    ULTRON

    Hah! Douché! (that's like Touché but instead with a meatport cleansing device. ewww)

    Debate that one you insensitive clod! Okay maybe you sensitive clod.

    *Probably at (maybe paid) suggestion of his publicist(s)

  60. Re:I think I speak for everyone (NOT!) by VeryFluffyBunny · · Score: 1

    Re: the current POTUS, he's the product of a culture that believes their political system is based on a well-informed, rational electorate but actually mostly consists of poorly-informed, irrational consumers. The USA also elected a really dumb, B-movie actor, remember? Trump, Bush, and Reagan are not anomalies - They're business as usual.

    VeryFluffyBunny ( 5037285 ), STFU yourself!

    How well-informed and rational of you.

    --
    Debate is a form of harassment. Do not question my truth.
  61. Re:I think I speak for everyone (NOT!) by PlaynBass · · Score: 1

    This last comment is actually accurate, IMO.

    And I should learn to control the tone of my own posts better when I am in disagreement with a really dumb opinion. Mea culpa.

    You, too, should learn to control the tone of your posts, if only to support our fading rights to free speech. For all the readers of these comments know, you yourself may not know what you are talking about. No one speaks for everyone who is commenting here. Therefore let the fly the comments of disagreement: Demanding someone to shut up only reveals your own closed mindset.

    --
    PlaynBass
  62. Re:Stole the plot of WARGAMES by JohnStock · · Score: 1

    To the internet he's a f*cking expert on everything and anything. In the real world he's a far, far more limited person.