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Evidence Suggests Updated Timeline Towards Yellowstone's Supervolcano Eruption (nytimes.com)
Camel Pilot writes: Geologist have been aware of fresh magma moving in the Yellowstone's super volcano system. Previously this was thought to precede an eruption by thousands of years. Recent evidence by Hannah Shamloo, a graduate student at Arizona State University, demonstrates that perhaps the timeline from the underground basin filling to eruption is more on the scale of decades. A super volcano eruption has the power to alter life's story on this earth and even destroy all life on a continent. In light of this, it seems like a good time to invest some effort and resources into finding ways to prepare, delay or deflect the potential threat. The research was presented at the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) 2017 conference in Portland, Oregon.
Seems like the thing to do to get recognition in the scientific community these days is to come up with catastrophic predictions. Between global warming, asteroids, Yellowstone, mass extinctions, blah blah blah the list just goes on and on. I really have tuned most of this noise out. It's just people looking to get their name out there on a story that will get eyeball traffic. It's kind of like a modern-day biblical doomsayer.
Yeah, I don't see us beating this one. Engage roman orgy mode.
"Since we are starting ab-initio in a new planet", he said, "the entire planetary infrastructure will be built on sustainable resources from the ground up from the start from get go". Complete with Boring Machines taking all the roads underground, with some tunnels reserved for hyperloop, cars will drive themselves to charging stations, a Dyson Sphere of 2 Astronomical units in diameter will refocus sunlight on the Mars surface to maintain Earth like lighting and temperature.
He said "If Secretary General of UN would sign the contract, all this will be completed in 100 days or it would be free. "
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
Shouldn't we wait until most people are no longer worried about a global warming catastrophe before we create a new armageddon story?
It'd be neat to know within decade precision when a supervolcano would blow, but that's still a pretty big window for humans to deal with practically. Can you do much to prepare for something on that scale that may or may not happen in 20 years?
Have you ever interacted with the officials that award research grants? They aren't panicky people.
Deflect the volcano to North Korea. Problem solved.
2 birds. One stone.
He loses to Scarlett Sims. The FJ answer is "What's A Wonderful Life."
This makes for an interesting read. However, there is no point in actually getting our panties in a bunch because there is nothing we can do to really stop Yellowstone from erupting. When it decides to go off, it's going to go off with a bang. Certainly there will be warnings but a volcanic explosion of this magnitude is an extinction level event. The eruption of Mt. St. Helens will look like the proverbial cherry bomb in a toilet by comparison. I guess I am not going to worry about what I do not have control over.
The scientist said that within the human lifte time we might be able to see the effects of what leads to a supervolcano. Basically within decades we could start seeing signs of a supervolcano that might erupt in 100+ years. That's what the article says.
Have you ever interacted with the officials that award research grants? They aren't panicky people.
As well, the definition of a "lot of money" seems to be quite fluid.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Volcanos are good at grounding aircraft - so everyone will have to go on ground transport. Heading south all at once could be tricky - especially if someone puts a wall in the way.
Somebody needs a few more years of real-world experience and tested hypotheses before making claims like this.
We may not be able to beat this one, but we can prepare for this.
True but it will take a LOT more to prepare than many people think.
Improving infrastructure to move people to the east coast. Having a backup supply of volcanic ash resistant air filters, and gas masks, to provide the public. Good relations with other countries as a way to deal with Refugees from America in case of such a disaster...
The problem will be far bigger than some dirt in the air and some refugees. A super volcano going off would cause massive and immediate global climate change. Temperatures globally would fall and crops would fail. Sunlight would be dimmed globally. Feeding people will become a huge problem far outside the US and Canada and a bigger problem in North America. We'd probably experience something akin to a nuclear winter for a time - even normal volcanoes can have measurable and significant effects on the global climate. The global economy would immediately go to shit for a while. Whatever is left of the US would likely be under martial law for a time. This wouldn't be a regional disaster like a typical volcano eruption. This would affect everyone like a large asteroid hitting the earth or a nuclear war.
We're sort of doing the same thing in slow motion with our reliance on fossil fuels and the pollution that results. Problem is that it's happening so slowly and in a way that isn't readily visible that people are able to ignore it. It's a bit like the difference between having a heart attack versus hypertension. The later isn't as spectacular and requires you to eat your vegetables so people tend to dismiss it as not that serious of a problem even though it will kill you all the same.
Indeed. All federal funding for the National Science Foundation, which is the vast majority of all government investment in science research (outside of NASA which was 11.3B) is just 5.67 billion dollars for everything. That includes everything from researching Yellowstone to robotics to stem. The majority isn't even spent on hard sciences but rather integrating groups. We are talking grant money of maybe 100k here. Put that into perspective with 824 billion for the military. I'd say 0.000012% of our defense spending is very well spent on something that really could level most of America to smoking ruin, unlike some rag tag terrorists we helped create ourselves to have an excuse to wage wars that financially reward key players. Hell, I'd even up that to 0.001% and still call it financially sound.
They are not saying it's a matter of decades from now when it will blow. It about how long it took for magma to move into the system until an eruption. The current study says decades, versus a previous study of another volcano that said millenniums.
There's still debate about about pinning down "the precise trigger of the last Yellowstone event."
None of these super volcanos are going to erupt anytime soon. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/1...
So clam down. You're much more likely to get hit by car crossing a street then by a super volcano.
Pretty much. To quote Scotty: "She's gonna blow, Captain!"
When even Fox News reports that it may be directly and immediately profitable to prevent such a disaster then we have some hope as a species. After all the initial investment would be less than 0.5% of our military budget, it would make money by generating electricity, and the reality is Yellowstone has the potential to level America to smoking ruins with a far far far higher probability than some malnourished idiots with an assault rifle or two on the other side of the planet.
What would happen if "some nutjob" like in North Korea had one good missile and one good nuclear bomb attached to it and lobbed it right into the middle of the Yellowstone caldera? Would that possibly set it off or just make a mess? Or they could just throw a bomb in the back of a cube van and drive right in there. Precarious times we live in.
but I don't think you have your finger on the pulse of the scientific community.
This isn't new information. I think you are confusing it with the mainstream media, where "BREAKING NEWS" is a constant ticker along the bottom of the screen.
My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.
It's a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese!
Either that or it's another scientific conspiracy to keep research $ flowing into worthless research while those darned scientists get rich off the taxpayer's backs.
Romans are rejecting me, plan B?
Some experts believe we may be able to drain heat from it and generate hydrothermal energy. The problem is there is some risk it would trigger an eruption. They would tap the lower-risk edges instead of the volatile center, but there's still no guarantee.
I don't think people will trust the technique enough to try heat draining and would rather take their chances with nature. There should probably be a direct vote before implementation. Canada and Mexico should be able to vote also, since they'd be heavily impacted by an eruption.
If a pending eruption is detectable ahead of time, it would probably be too late to use hydrothermal heat draining. The draining technique takes several decades and perhaps centuries to have notable impact. It's a lot of heat to remove. Thus, draining is a preventative technique only. When an imminent eruption pattern is detected, it would probably be too late to do anything other than pack up and haul ass.
Table-ized A.I.
The eruption of the supervolcano under Yellowstone is the basis of the Netflix show Van Helsing. Not a Zombie apocalypse, but a vampire apocalypse.
Old Faithful isn't really that faithful.
Global Warming and Mass Extinction, are slow disasters
That depends on what causes the mass extinction or global climate change. A large asteroid impact can cause a mass extinction and a global shift in temperatures on a very short timescale. Similarly, large volcanic eruptions can cool the climate very rapidly causing crops to fail etc.
The military do some cool things with their research grant money. It'd just be nicer if there was more to go around for non-defense applications.
Yes, we're making volcanoes in the geological record in order to scam you out of your paycheck. But when an oil company chose to boost octane with tetraethyl lead because it was more profitable people like you didn't ask too many questions.
“Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
perhaps the timeline from the underground basin filling to eruption is more on the scale of decades.
How long until the underground basin fills up?
If that is still thousands of years, who really cares?
But if it is due to be a year or two, I think all those "other continents" (where all life won't be destroyed) will start to re-think their immigration quotas.
politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
I'm anti science, huh. Wow AC, you got me.
I'm very pro-science. I'm just anti-mixing science and politics because politics turns everything to BS. And if you follow science at all, you can see that the current state of US science is plummeting down that slippery slope.
There is. Take away half the "defense" money and give it to education, infrastructure, basic research, health care. There is plenty of invented money to go around, the government just pisses it away in the most absurd and wasteful way possible (military).
Only I can judge you.
There was a time when these dildos were kept under some kind of control. Unfortunately, they're flooding this place, and it's getting more and more difficult to have an adult conversation.
I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
Bravely written, you brilliant intellectual AC */sarcasm*
Only I can judge you.
We are talking grant money of maybe 100k here. Put that into perspective with 824 billion for the military. I'd say 0.000012% of our defense spending is very well spent on something that really could level most of America to smoking ruin, unlike some rag tag terrorists we helped create ourselves to have an excuse to wage wars that financially reward key players. Hell, I'd even up that to 0.001% and still call it financially sound.
And just imagine the situation when we gratefully hand over the new Nucs for dear leader to play with.
Actually, that ain't happening, the amount of Pu needed just isn't there, and NASA is constantly scrounging to get some to fuel their thermovoltaic generators. Dear leader is talking a Manhattan District project number two.
But yes, it is a massive display of ignorance when some slashdotters and the crypto-conservatives moan and gnash their teeth over how the scientists are reaping the big bucks with their ill gotten research money. It's truly a drop in the bucket of the big picture.
And a good bit of it is of utility to the programs they are willing to make the country go bankrupt.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Pretty sure only people able to pass a rudimentary-skills test of physics knowledge and math and basic logic competence should be allowed to vote on this.Aside from that qualification they can have whatever political stripe they want.
I mean what percentage of people who don't know what the f*** they're talking about (have low critical thinking and physical-world literacy/numeracy skills) should be allowed to vote on any large and critical physics and engineering related project? If the majority are ignorant (and are just mostly tribal-leader followers), and insist on voting on it anyway, we'd be seriously screwed.
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
Suppose you somehow survive the cataclysm. The last time we had a super volcano blow up the survivors wound up infected with numerous body thetans of the ones that got blown up. As you know the excess thetans are quite expensive to get shed of. How will we ever achieve OT if this keeps happening?
Your research budget numbers are a bit off (though it doesn't detract from your larger point). NIH gets the largest research budget (on the order of $30 billion dollars). https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/... In fairness, that money is basically all spent on applied bio-medical research (anything "basic science" in biology/medicine needs to go to NSF to get funding -- too applied, too basic is a common sticking point for research on the boundary). Also, some amount of the military budgets are used to fund the army, navy, and air force research labs (AFRL, NRL, ARL) and research under DARPA and (at least up to a certain time) the NSA. Again, it doesn't take away from your main point. Best, Mark
Perhaps that's the way it "should" be done, but that's not the way politics typically works. Citizens want a say.
Table-ized A.I.
There are any number of existential threats that we can think of; nuclear war, an asteroid impact, a super-volcano, and at the end of all of that, the Sun will almost certainly expand into a red giant and terminate all life on Earth. IF the Earth is still here. Larry Niven has proposed a couple of ways to move the Earth into a different orbit, which we may have the technology to do when the time comes, a billion years from now.
But for nearer-term hazards, it's essential that some human beings leave the Earth and go elsewhere. The Moon. Mars. Ganymede or Titan or one of the other moons. Or build our own space habitats and roam the Galaxy in search of adventure.
Because if we stay here on the Earth, then any one of a dozen hazards can make us extinct. We need to spread out and become the weeds of the galaxy. It's very likely that the galaxy is ours for the taking; let's go take it!
What about global warming? Trump just pulled America out of the Paris Climate Accords so we may have real problems to worry about.
The Long Earth series, collaboration between Setphen Baxter tand he late Terry Pratchett (expanding the idea Pratchett played with in this "high mega" short story), speculate exactly around this idea.
There are US projects testing controlled demolition of Yellowstone done in one of the alternate earths.
(And Chinese project similarly playing with Nukes and Himalaya)
By an ironic twist of fate, the Yellowstone on the original Earth completly blows up in the meantine and plunges the original Earth in a ice age, forcing the civilisation to massively emigrates to alternative earths (and marses).
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
I did examine my life, priorities, and attitudes and decided to leave the Democratic party a few years back and become an independent.
I see: you are sarcasm impaired. So, let me walk you through it: both climate change and supervolcanoes are phenomena that government can do nothing about, yet for some reason, people don't seem to grasp that when it comes to climate change. Hence, I'm explaining how ludicrous the position is on climate change by translating climate change policies to supervolcanoes.
Get it now?