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Analysts Cut iPhone X Shipment Forecasts, Citing Lukewarm Demand (bloomberg.com)

According to Bloomberg, analysts have lowered iPhone X shipment projections for the first quarter of next year, citing signs of lackluster demand at the end of the holiday shopping season. From the report: Sinolink Securities Co. analyst Zhang Bin said in a report Monday that handset shipments in the period may be as low as 35 million, or 10 million less than he previously estimated. "After the first wave of demand has been fulfilled, the market now worries that the high price of the iPhone X may weaken demand in the first quarter," Zhang wrote. JL Warren Capital LLC said shipments will drop to 25 million units in the first quarter of 2018 from 30 million units in the fourth quarter, citing reduced orders at some Apple suppliers. The drop reflects "weak demand because of the iPhone X's high price point and a lack of interesting innovations," the New York-based research firm said in note to clients Friday. "Bad news here is that highly publicized and promoted X did not boost the global demand for iPhone X," according to the note. Apple is said to have trimmed its first-quarter sales forecast to 30 million units from 50 million, Taiwanese newspaper Economic Daily News reported, citing unidentified supply chain officials. It also said Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.'s main iPhone X manufacturing hub in Zhengzhou, China, stopped recruiting workers. The company also known as Foxconn is the sole iPhone X assembler, and also makes the handsets in Shenzhen and Chengdu.

26 of 168 comments (clear)

  1. We said we didn't want pervy phones by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2

    Buy your own spy equipment with FaceID and TouchID and always-on always-locating tech with your own money, not with ours.

    Besides, why would I want a bigger phone with a camera?

    Wake me when you issue the iPhone 9 SE, the iPhone 8 version intended for India and China, with a smaller form and none of the FaceID stuff I don't want.

    And forget about that Watch stuff, if I want to wear jewelry, I'll buy it myself.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
    1. Re:We said we didn't want pervy phones by TheFakeTimCook · · Score: 2

      Buy your own spy equipment with FaceID and TouchID and always-on always-locating tech with your own money, not with ours.

      Besides, why would I want a bigger phone with a camera?

      Wake me when you issue the iPhone 9 SE, the iPhone 8 version intended for India and China, with a smaller form and none of the FaceID stuff I don't want.

      And forget about that Watch stuff, if I want to wear jewelry, I'll buy it myself.

      And of course your opinion should be everyone's. Got it!

  2. Unpossible! by Lisandro · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I was told Face ID would change everything!

    1. Re: Unpossible! by Hal_Porter · · Score: 2
      --
      echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
  3. You can help by 110010001000 · · Score: 5, Funny

    You can help this situation by stopping by your local Apple store and purchasing multiple Iphone Xs. Only you can help Apple make its forecast. They are only $1000+ each. Have a heart this Christmas and help them out. Think of the Apple employees and their families.

  4. What? by joh · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Demand after the last quarter in the year with the iPhone X being new and around Xmas will drop the first quarter of the new year? Unheard of!

    1. Re:What? by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 2

      Which, if you go back in a time machine each of the last 3 years (at least) the same news keeps getting pushed out that Apple slashed orders of their flagship phone for CQ1, but when CQ1&2 financials come out, sales end up being roughly where expected.

      While clearly a limited microcosm, everything I see suggests pretty robust sales and consumer interest. I wouldn't expect the X to account for more than 15-20% of sales, but that is still a huge jump in ASP.

    2. Re:What? by tw2k · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No, that's not the point. Can you cite Apple predicting 50M sales anywhere? The article basically says some analyst guessed some figures at one point and has now changed their mind. You won't find out how good Apple's predictions were until you see if they met their forecast next quarter. They tend to be much better at forecasting than the analysts...

  5. Re:Global warming my butt by Lisandro · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Wow, you really understand how climate works.

  6. Gluttony is a sin by Hal_Porter · · Score: 3, Insightful

    And it could be argued that spending $1000 on a phone when you can get a perfectly serviceable one for a third of that is a form of gluttony.

    --
    echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
    1. Re:Gluttony is a sin by Xenx · · Score: 4, Informative

      Early adopters have historically supported development of technology so that the product can eventually become affordable. This process is no better or worse because it's a phone. You either like or dislike the new product. You either find the advancement worth the cost or you don't. There is absolutely no reason to call into question their moral standing because they don't agree with you.

    2. Re:Gluttony is a sin by Xenx · · Score: 2, Insightful

      First, it isn't my place to tell people what and how much to eat. Nor is it my place to attribute poor morals to their choice. Based on your attitude, I think you're a pretentious asshole.

      As for the phone, you act like flagship Android devices aren't also expensive. I am a long term Android user, and find the prices on either side have gotten out of hand. That being said, the hardware performance of the iPhone X is superior to its competition. I'm not one to put much weight on synthetic benchmarks, so feel free to ignore that point. In my own personal, not heavy use, the iPhone X is faster and has a 50%-100% improved battery life compared to the Galaxy S8+. If I was a heavier user, I'm sure that gap would shrink. In my personal opinion, I find the hardware performance to be worth the cost difference. I don't claim that people should pay $1000 for the phone, just that it isn't a total ripoff if they do. The phone isn't without issues, but my issues with the iPhone solely stem from OS design decisions and not hardware.

    3. Re:Gluttony is a sin by Misagon · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That's not what "early adopter" means. Early adoption is when you buy a new kind of product that is not mainstream.

      The iPhone line is now ten years old. Buying the first iPhone back in 2007/2008 would have been being an early adopter. Buying the iPhone X is jumping on the bandwagon.

      --
      "We mustn't be caught by surprise by our own advancing technology" -- Aldous Huxley
    4. Re:Gluttony is a sin by Xenx · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If you want to argue over semantics, that is fine. Enjoy being pedantic. Flagship phones, regardless of manufacturer, subsidize part costs. Often, the features and specs of todays flagship become tomorrow mid-range. So, if you want to call it something else.. that's fine. It's still the same damn principle.

  7. Re:iPhone X or iPhone 8 or iPhone 7 or ... by Tablizer · · Score: 5, Funny

    doomsayers are claiming with zero proof that iPhone X sales are below expectation

    The ghost of Steve Jobs says they are holding their calculators wrong.

  8. Re:Global warming my butt by r1348 · · Score: 2

    Insecurity is.

  9. Re:iPhone X or iPhone 8 or iPhone 7 or ... by JoeyRox · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Zero proof? The reduced estimates are based on lower orders to Apple's suppliers. Without their parts Apple can't build phones so it's a reasonable way to gauge future demand.

  10. Re: Analysts are Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Saab is the Amiga of automobiles

  11. Re:Global warming my butt by rnturn · · Score: 2

    Surely this can't be the first time you've experienced lake effect snow. Also, try googling "weather" and "seasons".

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    CUR ALLOC 20195.....5804M
  12. Re:iPhone X or iPhone 8 or iPhone 7 or ... by phayes · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Woosh. Absent any detail on _which_ suppliers and _which_ parts are seeing lower orders (which is NOT public knowledge it is not possible to determine which iPhone model is impacted.

    --
    Democracy is a sheep and two wolves deciding what to have for lunch. Freedom is a well armed sheep contesting the issue
  13. Re:They're cutting WHAT? by Carewolf · · Score: 2

    Cutting the cost would be admit defeat, or to have made a mistake. Apple does not admit defeat!! NEVER!

  14. Re:Singing poop emojis not worth 1K by jellomizer · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The iPhone X is a really good phone. However they sold it a nearly the same time as the iPhone 8. While the X had a big initial push for all those who wanted the premium phone. After the initial rush and Christmas season is over. We get the people who wants to upgrade their old phones the version 6 and under. And may figure they want the with the 8 or even go with the cheaper 7.
    What should had been the iPhone 8 should had been sold next year this year should had been the 7s. So this is an off year.
    All in all it wasn’t anything an engineer like Woz is qualified to handle. The phone itself is fine on par with the premium phones of its time. This decline in sales is due to over expectations in the current market where you have other premium phones on the market. While the X is good it isn’t light years ahead.

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    If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
  15. Re: Global warming my butt by Megol · · Score: 2

    Shouldn't reply but...

    AGW means a more unstable climate hence the "climate change". Global warming means that that temperatures are globally increasing _but_ it doesn't mean that local temperatures can't decrease. Look for instance on the Scandinavian climate - the temperatures there will decrease drastically if the Gulf stream wasn't there pumping heat. The temperatures of Russia wouldn't be similarly affected by a decrease/reversal of the stream due to continental effects, the same applies to mainland Europe.

    Unstable climate can lead to rapid changes in weather patterns and that also means uncommon events causing local cooling will be more common, the same applies to local heating. But that is still uncommon exceptions to the main pattern - that of a global temperature increase.

    People talking about short-term local temperatures as related directly to AGW don't know what they are talking about. Yes that includes you. The summer isn't warmer because of AGW but because it was warmer caused by extremely complex systems causing what we call weather. But see the previous chunk of text ^.

    If you'd actually read up on the research you'd know that ice cores doesn't tell this as anything normal. The change is very rapid compared to normal climate change. But it's easier being an anonymous idiot.

  16. Re: Analysts are Surprised? by TheFakeTimCook · · Score: 2

    Also the iPhones are going to have significantly more profit per volume and weight in shipping than the BMW. You could probably fit over 1000 iPhones in the volume of space it would take to ship a single car overseas and the shipment would probably still weigh less. Assuming apple taking $500 in profit per device and you potentially have $500,000 profit in the same place of a car that maybe brings in midish double digits thousands in profit.

    The iPhone X and Galaxy Note 8 are $50 difference in price. Yet no one on Slashdot excoriates Samsung for the profit margin on their phones.

    Why?

  17. Re:oh my by TheFakeTimCook · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So I guess the need for a $1000 phone is not as high as apple expected. Guess the disciples of Job's are growing up a bit? Or maybe their mommy's and daddy's are not willing to support their habit any longer.

    Funny, Samsung must've made the exact-same calculation for the GN8. It is only $50 less than the iPhone X (which, at around $1k, is insignificant), and Samsung doesn't have to buy its display (probably the most expensive single component), and its Flash (another pricey component) from anyone else, like Apple does.

  18. Re:Global warming my butt by thegarbz · · Score: 2

    There's a far more alarming trend than global warming but it's actually correlated to simply talking about global warming. What will kill us is not temperature rise but rather the sharp increase in ignorance per comment.