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Renewable Energy Set To Be Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels By 2020, Says Report (independent.co.uk)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Independent: Continuous technological improvements have led to a rapid fall in the cost of renewable energy in recent years, meaning some forms can already comfortably compete with fossil fuels. The report suggests this trend will continue, and that by 2020 "all the renewable power generation technologies that are now in commercial use are expected to fall within the fossil fuel-fired cost range." Of those technologies, most will either be at the lower end of the cost range or actually undercutting fossil fuels. "This new dynamic signals a significant shift in the energy paradigm," said Adnan Amin, director-general of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA), which published the report. "Turning to renewables for new power generation is not simply an environmentally conscious decision, it is now -- overwhelmingly -- a smart economic one." The report looked specifically at the relative cost of new energy projects being commissioned. As renewable energy becomes cheaper, consumers will benefit from investment in green infrastructure. The current cost for fossil fuel power generation ranges from around 4p to 12p per kilowatt hour across G20 countries. By 2020, IREA predicted renewables will cost between 2p and 7p, with the best onshore wind and solar photovoltaic projects expected to deliver electricity by 2p or less next year.

158 of 261 comments (clear)

  1. Re:It already is... by chispito · · Score: 1, Interesting

    You just left out most of the costs of fossil fuels!

    What, objectively, is the full cost of fossil fuels?

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  2. I'm wondering what's going to happen by rsilvergun · · Score: 3, Interesting

    when the US and the rest of the world loses collective interest in the middle east? Saudi Arabia is just now trying to figure out how to modernize their country when the price of oil collapses. They're desperately trying to get women into the economy because their current social system isn't compatible with the kinds of two income families countries want/need to maintain the growth/profit margins they're used to.

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    1. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by alvinrod · · Score: 2

      They're probably in for an ugly time of things. The people in power manage to stay in power because they can afford to pay for their own protection and to placate the population with all of that money. Add in those societies being among the more repressive on the planet and you've got a powder keg that's ready to erupt. The only question is how violent it will become and whether or not it will devolve into outright civil war as we've recently seen with other countries in the region.

    2. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by burtosis · · Score: 1

      I've seen some terrible climate forecasts that are possible in the Middle East if the weather patterns change to bring massive humidity to a previously arid but oppressively hot climate. Even the base line predictions are pretty bad. Agriculture will likely move north (south in the Southern Hemisphere) and the region has few natural resources outside of hydrocarbons. It looks like Mother Nature gives no fks and is about to punch the Middle East in the nuts. Of course the Middle East is probably where a lot of the CO2 came from, so it all makes internet sense. In any case it's not looking great for anyone, except maybe Canada.

    3. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      I need to hear this one: where in the Middle East did "a lot of of the CO2 come from"?

    4. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by hipp5 · · Score: 1

      And it has many uses other than just transportation.

      Though 71% of the oil use in the US is for transportation. That's a pretty huge drop in demand if you convert even a portion of the transportations sector to electricity. It won't eliminate demand for oil, but it will but pretty strong downward pressure on the price.

    5. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

      From the geological formations underneath the Middle East, obviously.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    6. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 1

      when the US and the rest of the world loses collective interest in the middle east?

      It's not just the middle east but they are going to be the ones hit the hardest. The answer is that there will be a shift in power and it will ultimately have a positive and stabilizing effect. However, the resettlement of power can sometimes turn very ugly with events like civil wars and genocides. The faster the world abandon's their oil supply, the shorter and more tumultuous the transition period will be. Their economies are going to stagnate if they haven't invested in an educated populous.

      TL;DR: a lot of people are probably going to die but the region will end up being more like Europe.

      --
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    7. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by MtViewGuy · · Score: 1

      It already is. Thanks to "fracking," the USA has now discovered massive reserves of oil and natural gas domestically, and allowed the revival of many supposedly "tapped out" oilfields. The USA is set to become one of the world's largest producers of natural gas--and we have such a surplus supply that Shell's Pennzoil division is making motor oil from natural gas!

    8. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by psycho12345 · · Score: 1

      Yes, but here's the thing. The vast majority of oil is used for transportation, between jet fuel, bunker fuel for ships, and gasoline. Furthermore, that is VERY inefficient. The utter best you can hope for out of ICE is 50%, which is theoretical, not economically viable. So roughly 30% of oil is literally being thrown away/wasted.

      Remove that demand, and the price of oil falls, really hard. The sum total of all other uses of petroleum can be satisfied without the middle east.

    9. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      I'm wondering what's going to happen when the US and the rest of the world loses collective interest in the middle east?

      Not gonna happen. Less than half of the oil the US imports is used as fuel in the first place. Even without being used as fuel, petroleum is still in massive demand as a chemical feedstock.

      Not to mention something under a third of the US's oil imports come from the Middle East in the first place - the bulk comes from Canada, Central, and South America.

      Far more interesting to me than the inevitable collapse of the Middle East is the inevitable collapse of the oil fueled Scandinavian social democracies

    10. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by jezwel · · Score: 1
      I would expect the source is all that oil that is being pumped out the ME and sent wherever to be burnt and end up as CO2 & more (about half a billion tonnes a year)

      There's a lot MORE coal production elsewhere though, so blaming the ME for the majority seems incorrect. China as the highest coal 'producer' was around 3.8 gigatonnes of coal annually, so just on that scale is more than 7.5x as destructive.
      All those stats are highly rounded and not current anymore, but the scale should be a nice indicator that the ME is not the worst (best?) at CO2 production.

    11. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by Freischutz · · Score: 1

      I'm wondering what's going to happen when the US and the rest of the world loses collective interest in the middle east? Saudi Arabia is just now trying to figure out how to modernize their country when the price of oil collapses. They're desperately trying to get women into the economy because their current social system isn't compatible with the kinds of two income families countries want/need to maintain the growth/profit margins they're used to.

      Well, the Gulf and Arabia i general is one of the cheapest and most efficient places to generate solar energy. They have lots of space for solar plants and very few people complaining about solar panels ruining their view and offending their sense of aesthetic harmony. Some of the smaller countries in the region are already stating to realise this so my theory on what will happen when oil starts to decline is that if they can figure out a way to export the energy or switch to high energy manufacturing they and start doing that before the bottom falls out of the oil market completely (which will still take a while) they should be relatively OK. If they don't do any of this, what will happen is massive social unrest and probably war.

    12. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by LowTechSwede · · Score: 2

      Only Norway has significant oil. Sweden and Finland has nothing and Denmark has 1,4% of what Saudi or Russia has. Denmark actually is a small net importer of oil. For Sweden and Finland, energy imports for the transport sector is a major cost. Replacing this with domestic electricity will strengthen economies rather than weakening them. For Norway, the change will bring about a significant decrease of spending power.

    13. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      Water might become the next excuse for war when the middle east gets too hot

      --
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    14. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      when the US and the rest of the world loses collective interest in the middle east? Saudi Arabia is just now trying to figure out how to modernize their country when the price of oil collapses.

      I wouldn't worry about that in our lifetimes. The Iran Shah was right when he said "oil was too valuable to burn". If we collectively decided to not drive our cars tomorrow we'd still be refining ludicrous amounts of crude oil.

      While our petrol and diesel consumption is levelling off, our consumption of aviation fuel and bunker fuel shows no signs of slowing down. Even if they stopped our consumption of oil based products is still skyrocketing at an alarming rate. Where will we get the plastic to individually wrap our bananas if we don't refine oil. Or what do we drive our electric cars on? Surely not dirt. Heck I only recently found out Americans use oil based products to cover the roofs of their houses.

      The real question is, which country will predict the trends correctly and invest for the future changing fuel mix. Personally I'm witnessing major oil companies dragging their feet forced only by investment to meet changing fuel requirements for shipping, while at the same time China is investing huge amounts to improve chemical extraction from oil rather than relying on it as a byproduct like we do in the west. Honestly I have no idea where the Saudis are in this, but they will remain important for our foreseeable future unless they really screw things up.

    15. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by Kiuas · · Score: 1

      I reckon Russia might do OK.

      Uhm. Not too likely at this point. Fossil fuels make up a third of Russia's budget revenue and over half of its exports. (Source: Bank of Finland's Economies in Transition policy brief No. 5 from last year entitled Overview of Russia's oil and gas sector,the Bank of Finland keeps a pretty close eye on Russia, it being one of the largest trading partners we have and a major geopolitical question mark if unstability/collapse hits). Quoting the brief:

      Oil and natural gas have been a key part of the Russian economy for decades, even though Russia is, strictly speaking, not an oil state. It is difficult to assess accurately the importance of oil and natural gas for the Russian economy but, according to the latest estimates, oil and natural gas have accounted for approximately one fifth of Russia’s GDP1 in the 2000s. They have accounted for nearly 30% of consolidated budget revenue and over half of export revenue. The largest Russian companies operate in the oil and gas sector, and their weighting in the Russian stock market index amounts to more than half. Both the Russian stock market and the ruble exchange rate therefore closely follow the development of the oil price. (pg. 4) - -
      .
      Russia’s oil production is dominated by 11 vertically integrated companies, whose share of oil production is nearly 90%. The largest of them is majority state-owned Rosneft, whose share of oil production has grown significantly in recent years through the acquisition of other companies in the
      sector. Including its most recent acquisition, Bashneft, Rosneft accounted for nearly half of Russia’s oil production last year. In addition, nearly 200 smaller companies operate in the oil production sector as well as three foreign companies within the framework of production-sharing agreements. Most experts, both international and Russian, have for a long time now expected the country’s oil production to begin to decline, so the continuation and even an acceleration of growth in last couple of years has come as a surprise to many of them. The decline in production of the traditional fields has been contained by better-than-expected improvements in production efficiency, and replacement production has been obtained from new fields more quickly than expected. Most forecasts, however, still expect production growth to at least level off in the next few years and for production even to decline (Figure 1)
      .
      It is expected that it will be possible to improve further the production efficiency of traditional fields, but this will become increasingly difficult and expensive, so investment would have to be increased. Production of many of the newer large fields is estimated to have already reached its peak level, so
      they, too, will no longer be able to maintain growth in the coming years. Completely new fields will be continually developed, but bringing them on-stream will take time and require investment. In recent years, the investment required to maintain growth has been limited by the decline oil prices, greater difficulty in obtaining financing, and the Western sanctions, which restrict the scope for purchasing the technology needed in oil production from abroad. The sharp weakening in the ruble, however, has significantly softened the impact of the decline in oil prices on Russian oil companies. In recent years, too, investment in oil and gas production has increased at a reasonably brisk annual rate of just over 10% (nominally), but due to high inflation the real growth of investment has been modest. (pg 5)

      In connection with the state finances of oil producing countries, a budget break-even oil price is often spoken of. This refers to the oil price that balances the budget, namely the oil price at which budget revenue exactly covers budget expenditure. This indicator is, in principle, simple and easy to understand, b

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    16. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by shilly · · Score: 1

      Poor Norwegians. Just a single trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund to get them through the transition.

    17. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by shilly · · Score: 1

      Um, it's pretty inaccurate to call what MBS is doing as "rejecting Islam". Islamism, perhaps. But Islam is still going to be the state religion and it's going to be an overtly religious country for a long time yet.

    18. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      The utter best you can hope for out of ICE is 50%, which is theoretical, not economically viable.

      Actually it looks like the actual best for a real production engine is about 54% and that is for the MAN S80ME-C7 diesel marine engine which is being built and sold now. Those large slow marine/stationary diesels are very efficient. Only combine gas turbines are more efficient but there you need to have something to use the waste heat to get up to their claims of over 60% efficiency if not they fall below the efficiency of most larger (think train, haul truck, office building backup generator) diesels.

      --
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    19. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by Lost+Race · · Score: 1

      Mercedes Formula 1 racing engine is over 50% thermal efficiency. The best road car engines are 40% (e.g. Prius).

    20. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by nasch · · Score: 1

      Maybe they can smelt aluminum. That's a process that requires a lot of electricity, and some country (Iceland?) currently takes a lot of business doing that due to cheap renewable power. Geothermal if I'm remembering right and it's Iceland.

    21. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by mapkinase · · Score: 1

      Are you a Muslim?

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    22. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by shilly · · Score: 1

      Nope. But I travel to Saudi pretty regularly for work

    23. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by mapkinase · · Score: 1

      Ah, you are not, ah? That's what I thought: another blithering Western idiot with an opinion on Islam.

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    24. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by shilly · · Score: 1

      And what are your qualifications, oh wise one? When were you last in Riyadh? Who is MBS? What is Vision 2030? Give us a quick potted history of the house of Saud. Demonstrate your insights into the changing importance of Hajj in the last twenty years. Name three important Islamic theologians of the last decade. I'll bet you couldn't do any one of those things all by yourself. You might be able to use Google to find an answer, but it would be a bit of a struggle for you if we're honest, wouldn't it?

      It is absurdly funny that you would presume to judge my knowledge of Islam, when you talk about the "stance of the current king against Shariah". That is wrong on so many levels, it's almost like a master-class in stupid ignorance:
      - The current king has Alzheimers
      - The current king is king in name only, and powers are in the hands of MBS, by and large
      - The current king is not the instigator of reforms -- that is being done by MBS
      - The current king never took a "stance against Shariah". At most, it can be said that the current king has not curbed MBS's reform program.
      - Permitting women to drive and watch football matches does not constitute a "stance ... against Shariah"

      Fucking know-nothing pricks who think they're so smart.

    25. Re:I'm wondering what's going to happen by mapkinase · · Score: 1

      Why don't get lost, imbecile?

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  3. Re:Suuuuure they are by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 2

    If you factor in the long-term effects of continued fossil fuel use on health and the environment in general then it's already far less expensive to use renewables.

  4. Re:That will not make any difference. by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 2

    You are referring to the uber-nutjobs commonly referred to as "Dominionists". For a soft-core preview of what a Dominionist-run country would be like, try reading The Handmaids Tale -- but the reality of a Dominionist world would be orders of magnitude worse, I assure you. Try reading up on it, but don't blame me if you have digestion issues and anxiety problems over it for a while.

  5. Goody we can stop subsidies and Tax Credits by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    We can also get rid of giveaways like net metering while at it.

  6. Start re-educating/retraining coal miners by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

    Instead of propping up the coal industry how about that money be spent educating and training displaced coal miners so they can work in the solar industry? They'll have jobs and I'm sure they'll be much happier every day working above ground instead of dark dangerous mines.

    1. Re:Start re-educating/retraining coal miners by MtViewGuy · · Score: 1

      We may be seeing the last "hurrah" of coal over the next 20 years. The development of new nuclear reactor technologies such as the molten salt reactor fueled by plentiful thorium-232 could end the age of coal within 40 years.

    2. Re:Start re-educating/retraining coal miners by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      I've looked into that, watched the YouTube video about it, even emailed the guy behind it, and from what he tells me the government isn't in the least bit interested in the technology, and without their support production-level power plants based on it won't ever happen.

    3. Re:Start re-educating/retraining coal miners by Socguy · · Score: 1

      Nuclear has perpetually over promised and under-delivered. It's projects are routinely overpriced and behind schedule, not to mention that nobody wants it in their back yard. Furthermore, it's simply not necessary. It's entirely possible to run the grid with solar, wind and storage. Throw in hydro and geothermal and things just get easier.

      Nuclear is a boondoggle... and that goes double for new unproven technologies. Even if governments were to decided to start a massive build-out of reactors, it would be decades before the first ones came online. What will we do in the meantime? That's far too late to forestall the worst negative effects of climate change.

      Next, consider that renewables are already beginning to out-compete fossil fuels straight up on price. In 20-40 years time renewables will be pumping out gigawatts of power at fractions of a cent per watt. Who then is going to buy all that expensive nuclear power? Are we just going to hand ratepayers a bill for all these white elephant plants?

      (And finally, why would I want thorium when in 40 years time I'm already being promised fusion reactors!)

    4. Re:Start re-educating/retraining coal miners by Uecker · · Score: 1

      Of course, I would help a lot with credibility if the molten-salt people do their homework correctly, before making outstanding claims.

      https://www.technologyreview.c...

    5. Re: Start re-educating/retraining coal miners by kenh · · Score: 1

      In round numbers, how many solar installers are needed in the poverty-stricken Appalachian region? Once every miner's shack and double wide gets a solar installation placed on top of it, what will they do? Collect unemployment until a new job training bill comes along and gives them another glimmer of hope.

      --
      Ken
  7. Re:It already is... by MountainLogic · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Even with a bit higher capital costs between sources when you have to compete against an essentially zero fuel cost you are bound to fail.
    If I were making big bets today, I would be looking for a few narrow canyons I cold buy to put in some pumped hydro. That type of base storage is where the next gold rush will be found. Cool thing about pulped hydro is that you can reuse the water over and over.
    I also remember hearing about some group looking into reusing old mine railways as they tend to be steeper than commercial rail. They were going to put loaded cars with an electric engine/generator to act as gravity storage. Who says those old coal mines can't produce (or at least store) clean energy

  8. Re:It already is... by Aighearach · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If the claimed problem is that many things have been left out of the calculation, the response would be first to look into what those things are, rather than jumping straight to demanding a corrected final result.

    I suspect you're not asking in good faith, due to the absurdity of the way you phrase the question.

    But if you were just being lazy, then I'll spoon feed you the search term: "fossil fuel externalities." That will return your years and years worth of reading materials on the subject, and you can very quickly find out if the orders of magnitude of the external costs justify conclusions about the relative costs even without having precise "objective" numbers.

    Also, please note that that isn't really what "objective" means. Perhaps you meant something different, like "unbiased." Using the philosophy definitions of the terms, figuring out the costs after including externalities is clearly subjective. Using common English definitions, neither is relevant until you're making an actual accusation of bias.

  9. Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The problem is the cost of storage. Renewables are intermittent meaning we need storage or baseload backup. 96% of our current storage is done thru pumped hydro. All of our current storage will last less then a hour. It is not feasible to scale that up to a 100% percent renewable grid. Batteries are even more expensive and less feasible for grid level storage.

    Given the realities of climate change, it is immoral to oppose nuclear power

    1. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by rahvin112 · · Score: 1, Informative

      The latest bid prices for wind and solar in the US included solar and were cheaper than old and already paid for power plant coal power. (approx 3 cents a kwh). These bids included storage.

      Storage + renewable prices have already reached parity or cheaper than coal in most of the US. This paper indicates the remaining rest of the continental US will reach parity in a few years. Battery prices have fallen precipitously over the last 5 years and storage is competitive with generation.

    2. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 2

      Nope

    3. Re: Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 2

      Nothing is wrong with hydro. It cannot power 100% of our needs, but if we could retrofit existing dams we should.

    4. Re: Not counting the cost of storage by roland.c.harrison · · Score: 1

      It is very unlikely for the wind to stop blowing across the entire country at once. By using large connected grids and diversifying the types of renewable energy you are using you can minimise the amount of storage required. Not to mention solar thermal with 100% availability is becoming very competetive to coal. Once it is cheaper your point will be moot.

    5. Re: Not counting the cost of storage by AHuxley · · Score: 1

      Pumped hydro is great if a new site can be found. If past dams did not have limitations such as been designed for reservoir and generation not the needed reversing design.
      Unless the tax payers, the private sector invested in pumped-storage hydroelectricity in the 1950-90's most nations have existing dams that would have to be upgraded.
      Someone had to think of the reverse electric motor driven pumps at the time. Many design just went for a reservoir and saved costs as generation only.
      Pump back can be added.

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    6. Re: Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 1

      Any reliable grid will still need at days to weeks of storage. And solar thermal does not have 100% availability. The best plants (which are location dependent) have capacity factors less then 50%.

    7. Re: Not counting the cost of storage by blindseer · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You say that but I remember a couple very long and hot summers where Dad sat by the TV watching the weather channel on satellite, waiting for the wind to blow and the rains to start. Crops won't grow without the rain, and the winds bring the rain.

      So we sat in the farmhouse, and watched the weather channel. Weeks at a time. My brothers and I would play with our Lego blocks almost afraid to talk to Dad since he was oddly quiet everyday.

      Oh, I'm sure someone will point out that if it was the summer and there's no clouds then for sure then solar panels would make a lot of electricity.

      I can recall some relatively warm and calm winters. I tried to make a flight but the fog hanging over the Midwest was not moving. Planes had to be diverted for the fog. Many flights were cancelled. Even taking buses was not advised with such heavy fog. This was around Christmas time and a lot of people wanted to travel. The air was so still that air quality advisories were everywhere. It was warm for winter but people still needed heat. People were burning wood for heat, coal power plants were working hard. Some farmers ventured in the fields to dispose of melting manure. Everything stank.

      No sun. No wind. Days at a time. Covering entire states.

      Oh, then the wind blows. Along with the wind comes, hail, snow, sand, rain, and whatever else it can pick up from the ground. Then there are tornadoes, ice storms, lightning. All kinds of fun in the Midwest.

      Give me nuclear power. Nuclear power doesn't care what the weather is like. It's cheap, safe, reliable, and we would not be reliant on Arabian oil or Chinese solar collectors.

      --
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    8. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by Mashiki · · Score: 3, Informative

      Uh not even close. The bid prices in the US for solar are around 0.188kWh around 0.30kWh for solar. Coal however does come in at around 0.032kWh however. If you use batteries for load balancing? Double that. Triple it if it's a combined solar/wind battery balancing system. Those prices are still half of what we pay in Canada. It still is cheaper to build a coal power plant, it is still cheaper to flood thousands of KM of land and build a dam. Kinda like what they're doing out in BC, where there are no lack of passes for wind. And it's *still* cheaper to build a brand new hydroelectric dam.

      --
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    9. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Nuclear isn't built on the idea that it requires storage. Nuclear is built on the idea that it carries total base load, or near base load. Most nuclear power plants are based around the idea that they'll carry between 70-85% of all grid demands at all times. It's the "fast spinup" plants that cover peak, over-demand and so on. That's coal, hydroelectric, natural gas. Wind/solar? Wind has to blow meaning if it's not, it has to rely on storage to balance load. Solar the sun has to shine, doesn't work out very well in a lot of places where you see 2/3's of the year with cloud cover or the panels are covered in snow and again requires batteries to carry that load.

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    10. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by rastos1 · · Score: 1

      All of our current storage will last less then a hour.

      That caught my eye, so I looked up data about a pumped storage hydroelectric power plant that is ~300km from me. The flow is ~188m^3/s and the capacity of the reservoir is 3 700 000 m^3. Which means that it could go for 5.4 hours delivering 735 MW.

    11. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by Uecker · · Score: 1

      Well, I like to argue differently: It is immoral to propose nuclear power, as it is too costly and pursuing nuclear takes away funding from more efficient solutions and solutions which can be faster deployed.

      Storage is really a serious issue only once you have more than 60% renewables. Storage prices are expected to go down significantly. Also demand-side electricity management, large-sale power distribution, over provisioning, and efficiency improvements will also help to reduce the problem. I do not see a fundamental problem going to 100% renewables.

    12. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

      Given the realities of climate change, it is immoral to oppose nuclear power

      Not even close. A nuclear power plant built today needs to have an economical life of 50 years, and it will still have a discounted construction cost per kWh of over $0.07. That doesn't include operations cost, maintenance, waste disposal, or decommissioning.

      The age of nuclear is over until major issues are solved. For now, 10-year life natural gas plants are the only socially (or morally if you insist) acceptable means of providing backup power. We simply need to move the grid towards less and less of their time being operational.

    13. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 1

      The United States uses ~4000 TWh annually. Dividing that by 365 and you get ~11 TWh daily. Divide that by 24 and you get ~450 GWh. It varies by peak demands throughout the day, but for this discussion it is a good number. We have significantly less then that it both generating and storage capacity.

    14. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 2

      I do not see a fundamental problem going to 100% renewables.

      You might not, but that national academy of sciences does. They have rejected the feasibility of the leading 100% renewable plan. Many of the worlds top climate scientists have repeatedly said nuclear power is the only viable path forward on climate change

    15. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 1
      Natural gas is a fossil fuel. Do you understand that fossil fuels are what is causing climate change? I doubt it. Methane is also a much stronger greenhouse gas then CO2. Natural gas leaks release methane into the atmosphere accelerating climate change.

      We simply need to move the grid towards less and less of their time being operational.

      The best way to move the grid away from fossil fuel sources is to add new nuclear power. Also the major issues with nuclear are not technical. Those have already been solved. They are political.

    16. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by rahvin112 · · Score: 2

      https://www.vox.com/energy-and...

      I suggest you use news that isn't 20 years old. The most recent bids in Colorado for new solar are cheaper than old coal.

    17. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 1

      Waste is a red herring. It always has been. It has never hurt anyone. There is not a lot of it. It is merely unused fuel. I think we should recycle it to produce 10000+ years electricity.

    18. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by atomicalgebra · · Score: 1

      I am making an argument that appeals to personal ethics and emotions. Facts cannot assuage peoples irrational fears about nuclear power. A scientific argument will not work with people who are cognitive dissonance. (I wish it did). In order to win the debate we have to make a moral and emotional argument. We have to take the moral high ground away from the anti-nukers/fossil fuel industry stooges.

    19. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      I suggest you use a reliable source instead of vox, which cherry picks from one state. And take a look at the total grid picture, since you're good at searching it shouldn't take you long to find the actual sellers price. FYI vox's article is *bid* price, not what you actually pay which is *buyer price* aka the cost when it hits your home.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    20. Re:Not counting the cost of storage by rahvin112 · · Score: 1

      This is covered by other sources, you would know that you if you used google and bothered to look, you can go look at the bid prices yourself, they are posted publicly, Vox simply put the bids in a nice clean table. This was an open bid for construction to begin in months and included a storage option. These prices ARE the current prices, your allusion that this isn't true only indicates a complete lack of understanding. There is nothing more open than the current bid prices in an open competitive bid.

      The stupid thing would be to compare this to prices from 5 or 10 years ago as some reflection on current pricing. Current pricing is the bids that were opened in January. The bid openings for the past 3 months have been this low, there have been several opening in Texas, Colorado and other places with very similar prices. This corresponds to pricing seen in other parts of the world.

  10. THIS is how The Invisible Hand ... by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 1, Insightful

    ... by 2020 "all the renewable power generation technologies that are now in commercial use are expected to fall within the fossil fuel-fired cost range." [and will continue to drop below them] ... "Turning to renewables for new power generation is not simply an environmentally conscious decision, it is now -- overwhelmingly -- a smart economic one."

    THIS is how The Invisible Hand eliminates greenhouse gas emissions. B-)

    Cost of renewable energy collection drops as tech advances.
      * Solar photovoltaic, in particular, benefits from semiconductor tech.
      * Control and conversion IS semiconductor tech, with all the Moore's Law benefits.
      * Storage rides the battery advances driven by things like laptops and electric cars.
    Cost of grid generation may benefit some from tech, but it's mostly mature and advances slower.

    Meanwhile, cost of fossil fuels continues to climb as the easy stuff gets used up - while renewables (if you already occupy a good site) pretty much don't HAVE ongoing fuel costs.

    As the cost passes crossover in progressively more locations, renewables will first take up new loads, then (as the second crossover is passed similarly and it becomes cheaper to switch than not), displace existing fossil fuel generation.

    --
    Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
    1. Re:THIS is how The Invisible Hand ... by rgmoore · · Score: 1

      THIS is how The Invisible Hand eliminates greenhouse gas emissions.

      So long as you ignore all the help the invisible hand had getting to this point. There's been a lot of government investment in developing those renewable energy technologies. That's not to say there's anything wrong with the government stepping in and helping to develop new tech- government funding has helped a huge amount of new tech in practically every field- just to point out that this isn't purely the result of private enterprise operating without government intervention.

      --

      There's no point in questioning authority if you aren't going to listen to the answers.

    2. Re:THIS is how The Invisible Hand ... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Control and conversion IS semiconductor tech, with all the Moore's Law benefits.

      Only in part. The issues with power electronics are not generally with component density but rather with component properties (max voltage, max current, heat losses, lifetime, manufacturing costs etc.). These things do advance but not in line with Moore's law which was about digital circuitry.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    3. Re:THIS is how The Invisible Hand ... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Those things you mention are all already at 95% - 99% efficiency.
      You can make them cheaper by finding cheaper materials, but not more efficient.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    4. Re: THIS is how The Invisible Hand ... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Notice how the difference between 95% efficiency and 99% efficiency is fivefold in practice.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    5. Re: THIS is how The Invisible Hand ... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Five fold of what?
      Price?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  11. Why worry about that? by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 2

    You just left out most of the costs of fossil fuels!

    Why worry about that?

    When the DIRECT cost passes the crossovers, renewables first take up the new loads, then displace fossil fuels for old ones.

    So you don't NEED government hacks to map the indirect costs into the market (and provide massive opportunities for graft and rent-seeking). The UN-hidden costs are enough to drive the market.

    --
    Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
  12. Re:Goody we can stop subsidies and Tax Credits by rahvin112 · · Score: 1

    Net metering is no giveaway, anyone that claims as such has no idea about the matter.

  13. Fusion by markdavis · · Score: 2

    >"Renewable Energy Set To Be Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels By 2020"

    Or we figure out effective fusion, finally, and all our problems with energy and everything related to it just go "poof"! Energy related nation conflict, emissions, waste, land use, most of the danger, most of the cost, supply issues, many of the grid issues, could all quickly disappear.

    OK, so I am living in a dream world. But it COULD happen.... based on how long it has already taken, probably not by 2020, unfortunately.

    1. Re:Fusion by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      Sorry, but due to the cost of tritium, DT fusion, the only kind we can hope to do in the next 50 years, will be about $1 per KWh.

      Effective fusion has been figured out long ago. The Sun fuses 93 million miles away, and we collect its energy here.

      No way will earth fusion reactors compete with solar and wind.

      instead, we'll be using it for spacecraft and military ships and submarines.

    2. Re:Fusion by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Space applications, perhaps. Once we get to building million tonne space vessels. Submarines? That would require truly miniature reactors, and fusion at small scale sucks really badly.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    3. Re:Fusion by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      I'd argue that the large reactor reactor designs suck the worst. laser and tokamaks are expensive failures, and ITER will be another.

      a working fusion reactor won't one of these big silly monsters; it will be something in the direction of a fusor/polywell if it happens at all.

    4. Re:Fusion by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Even if you had your load mostly from fusion, you still need pumped storage for grid balancing.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    5. Re:Fusion by dehachel12 · · Score: 1

      > that holds lots of promise.
      I've been hearing lots of promises about fusion for at least 30 years now.Any day now it will happen LOL !

    6. Re:Fusion by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Fusion isn't that great. It doesn't ramp up/down very well, for example. It's also gonna be expensive compared to renewables. While it will be great in niche applications, I don't imagine it will have a massive impact on the electrical grid. By the time it becomes commercially viable it just won't be needed.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    7. Re:Fusion by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      I remember reading about that to a while back. Has anyone seen anything on it since or did is just go off and die never to be heard from again.

      --
      Time to offend someone
    8. Re:Fusion by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Youngster! I've been hearing lots of promises about fusion for at least 50 years now. It's always 10-30 years away.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  14. Re:Sure by hipp5 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Oil is rarely used for electricity generation. In 15 out of the top 20 energy generating countries, it is less than 5% of the electricity fuel mix.

  15. Geopolitical changes by manu0601 · · Score: 2

    Remove fossil oil, and relation between nations change. Saudis will be obvious loosers. I wonder if Russia's economy is diverse enough to avoid collapse. And without oil, US interest for middle east vanish, will US Israel support too?

    1. Re:Geopolitical changes by Freischutz · · Score: 1

      Remove fossil oil, and relation between nations change. Saudis will be obvious loosers.

      The Arabs are actually sitting on, or rather under, another massive energy resource which is solar. They can produce solar energy very efficiently, without interruption and at low prices. If they start using their sovereign wealth funds to begin prepping now and if they can get that energy to market somehow they do stand a chance of transitioning relatively smoothly.

      I wonder if Russia's economy is diverse enough to avoid collapse.

      Ummm.... No.

      And without oil, US interest for middle east vanish, will US Israel support too?

      No, not as long as pandering to the Christian community in the US is key to wining elections in the US so unless there is a sudden rift between US Christians and the Israelis and the Zionist movement I don't see that happening.

    2. Re:Geopolitical changes by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Remove fossil oil

      How? By not burning petrol in cars? Where will we get our aviation fuel? Our bunker fuel? How do we manufacture plastics? How do we repair let alone build new roads? How do we put roofs over out heads (rhetorical, personally I find asphalt tiles bizarre given the many alternatives)?

      Saudis will only be the obvious losers if they rest on the laurels and don't invest in the obviously coming changing refining requirements. They sit on a lot of undesirable heavy and sour crude which is ripe for plastic manufacturing. Countries producing light sweet crude will lose out far earlier.

    3. Re:Geopolitical changes by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      if they can get that energy to market somehow

      That would be the gigantic problem. Laws of physics say they can't just export the electricity. The transport losses would be so enormous that it's not going to be possible.

      Theoretically, they could use the energy to try and create a biofuel or other chemical storage, but there are plenty of deserts in the world that are not geopolitical powder kegs. So there's little reason to do that in Saudi Arabia when you can do it in, say, Arizona.

  16. Exactly right by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    The people worried about carbon emissions are just not realizing the huge downturn in output we'll see over the next few decades. They are worried about what things might be lime in 100 years when within 50 we'll have a massive drop in CO2 output.

    Instead they should be focusing on real pollution which has a far larger lifespan in the environment than CO2...

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Exactly right by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately, we'll still be producing lots of CO2 during those 50 years before the drop. Which will produce very bad results.

      The market is moving far too slowly if we want to do things like keep Florida above the ocean.

    2. Re:Exactly right by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

      That is absurd, CURRENT predictions (by the UN IPCC) are at most around a foot of sea rise in 100 years - that's not accounting for the inevitable drop in CO2 output that will occur over the next 30 years. We won't even reach a foot rise and Florida will not be "below the ocean" even if we kept current CO2 output - which we will not.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  17. Re:So we can end subsities? by AHuxley · · Score: 1

    Subsidies will flow onto the batteries and storage needed to keep the grid up when the wind stops and its night time.
    If batteries are not counted as "renewable" then such subsidies can keep flowing every utility bill.
    e.g. "renewable" is not getting a direct subsidies but the new battery network all over a state, nation is.

    Every habitual structure has to get inspected, be grid connected and has to pay for grid connection every year.
    So the claim of no subsidies can be presented but the utility bill price of getting and using renewable electricity remains every year.
    Profit taking, new batteries, profits for installing the batteries, to look after the batteries, to replace the batteries, to install the next generation of batteries.
    The new diesel and gas generators needed to keep the grid working and cover for battery, wind and solar grid fluctuations.

    --
    Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
  18. Cost curves of fuel vs. electric just intersected by Qbertino · · Score: 1

    Cost curves of fuel vs. electric just intersected roughly 10 weeks ago in late 2017. Note: That is cost for electric going down, like pretty steep. And that's with *todays* electric vehicles, with shitty batteries and no economics of scale. Experts expect ICEs to be basically gone in 10 years, simply by economics alone. Some say in roughly 5 years from now people will start paying for someone to take their ICEs, so bad will be their feasibility vs. EVs. The private owned ICE car industry is in for an equivalent of a long-running carpet bombing, late WW2 in Germany style. Prepare for incoming.

    --
    We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
  19. Ty trng rng và nhng iu nên bit by tongngockhanh · · Score: 1

    You just left out most of the costs of fossil fuels!

    You just left out most of the costs of fossil fuels!

    http://lamrangthammy.vn/tay-tr...

  20. Re: It already is... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    Why care about wind energy first? Don't you have better priorities?

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  21. Re:It already is... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    Probably because you got these "details" by means of rectal extraction?

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  22. Re:So we can end subsities? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    Sure, as long as you end all energy subsidies, otherwise the argument doesn't make sense. And while you at it, internalize the externalities.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  23. Wars and Pollution come to mind by rsilvergun · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Fossil fuels are most common in a few countries. That means odds are you have to go somewhere else to get them unless your country happens to be one of the lucky ones. There's a long history of nasty wars fought over oil. And those wars are _expensive_. The Iraq war's final bill is going to be around $7 trillion with a 'T'. Afghanistan is going to be around $3 trillion.

    Then there's pollution. Even if you pretend climate change is a Chinese hoax smog isn't. Asthma, lung cancer, respiratory & heart disease are all exacerbated and in some cases outright caused by burning Fossil Fuels. And if you're using leaded gas you can add sever mental problems to that list.

    Then there's the massive subsidies and tax breaks oil companies get. Yeah, yeah, renewables get them too. But it's still part of the cost of oil. Plus oil spills and their clean up. And the cost of shipping the stuff. The list goes on and on, but the first two I cited are the big ones because they're the ones that aren't part of the direct cost and therefor aren't obvious and/or counted.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:Wars and Pollution come to mind by blindseer · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It seems you may have come to one of the answer as to why Saudi Arabia, UAE, and other oil rich nations are investing in nuclear power. They are investing in solar power too, it seems. Why would they invest in nuclear power if solar power holds so much promise on providing cheap energy?

      Here's something the US Marines figured out. Solar panels are difficult to protect in a time of war. They can't be put in a concrete bunker and still provide power. They spent a lot of money on developing flexible and durable solar panels that can be part of their protective structures in the field. They also know that as durable as they are they are still vulnerable to things like rain, snow, and sand.

      The US Navy has long been researching means to synthesize fuel from seawater using nuclear reactors to drive the process. They've been very successful and it seems that the only thing stopping them from moving faster is interference from the Department of Energy. We can't have the Department of Defense outshining the Department of Energy on developing energy solutions, can we? We'll probably get this process in the Navy fleets, fueling up Marine tankers that drive out to field hospitals and such, once the DOE can put enough fingerprints on it to call it a "joint effort".

      What might this process do for oil rich nations like Saudi Arabia? This process of synthetic fuel doesn't much care where the carbon and hydrogen comes from. It can take crude oil and process it into refined fuels. Fuels without lead, sulfur, and other nasty stuff that gets people sick.

      Oh, byproducts of this synthetic fuel process is drinkable water, oxygen, heat, and perhaps some excess hydrogen. Heat, hydrogen, and nitrogen means ammonia fertilizer. Saudi Arabia knows that they will run out of oil some day. A few young princes see nuclear power as a way to keep exporting valuable commodities and not revert to tribes warring over hills of sand and sources of clear water. Water and fertilizer means food to eat and export. They'll probably be exporting oil for a long time yet, but it will most likely come from olives in the future.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    2. Re:Wars and Pollution come to mind by munch117 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Another thing about solar power: It's decentralised.

      Autocrats like big centralised prestige projects.

    3. Re:Wars and Pollution come to mind by gnick · · Score: 1

      DOE... are invested in a competing fusion technology. Maybe with new leadership at DOE the project could get proper funding

      Like the $3.5B NIF? Or something more ambitious?

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    4. Re:Wars and Pollution come to mind by mspohr · · Score: 1

      Also, electric power companies get rewarded (guaranteed return on investment) when they build a big power plant. They get nothing when I install solar panels on my roof. This is a powerful incentive to discourage decentralized renewables and to build fossil fuel plants.

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    5. Re:Wars and Pollution come to mind by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.

      no, you are free because there are decent lawyers willing to read the actual text of the "Supreme law of the land" and your weapon means nothing when the midnight raids come on the heels of a Fascist state.

    6. Re:Wars and Pollution come to mind by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

      NIF is a weapons test platform, nothing more.
      Under no circumstances can impulse compression exceed Lawson criteria and energy gain fusion.
      it's that hole "Heat a frozen slug of deuterium Tritium to 150 M(deg)K for each cycle"

  24. Re:That will not make any difference. by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

    They're scarier because they're getting appointed (not elected, appointed) to government posts. Like Betsy DeVos.

  25. Re:It already is... by Chas · · Score: 1

    The problem is, carrier-scale Hydro is a no-go in the US. They've already passed peak Hydro. And while micro-hydro will make up SOME difference, it won't make up THAT much.

    --


    Chas - The one, the only.
    THANK GOD!!!
  26. no it isn't, heres why.. by gl4ss · · Score: 1

    cost of oil, coal and such is dictated at the moment by market factors - what kind of money can you get by selling it. basically what this means is that if demand goes down they can sell it for cheaper than they are selling it at now.. also for the same reason price of oil will never(in our life) double, since at that point making alternative liquid from coal would be profitable.

    anyhow, if it's going to go so low in just two years what kind of an idiot would buy solar _now_ ?

    anyhow coal is cheap for the chinese because they have it already. pretty fucking hard to compete with that on price alone.

    aanyhow.. would maybe be interesting to read how they projected the costs, how long they assume the solar installation is running without replacing it, since you could tweak those projections to half the energy cost(over lifetime of the plant) quite easily, but then you get to things like interest rate on the invested money and so on.

    --
    world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
    1. Re:no it isn't, heres why.. by An+dochasac · · Score: 1

      cost of oil, coal and such is dictated at the moment by market factors - what kind of money can you get by selling it. basically what this means is that if demand goes down they can sell it for cheaper than they are selling it at now.

      For a decade or two this may be true of Saudi surface oil (where Jed Clampet and a squirrel rifle drill a deep enough to strike oil), but it isn't true for frack oil where you have to figure in the cost of the sand and it isn't true for Canadian shale-oil where you have to figure in the energy cost of separation and transportation and already it isn't true for North Sea oil and it's doubtful that it will be true for deepwater wells in the Arctic or Gulf of Mexico or other places even if you can ignore the cost of environmental damage and human lives lost. In fact oil Energy Return On Investment (EROI) has been decreasing to from 2000:1 in 1919 to 5:1 in 2007. In fact, just as whales became more and more difficult to harvest as we approached peak whale oil in 1845, we are approaching the point where every drop of oil takes more energy and blood to extract.

      “For God’s sake, be economical with your lamps and candles. Not a gallon you burn, but at least one drop of man’s blood was spilled for it.” -- Herman Melville (Moby Dick 1851)

    2. Re:no it isn't, heres why.. by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      anyhow, if it's going to go so low in just two years what kind of an idiot would buy solar _now_ ?

      Because enough people say that the price will stay fairly high even when demand gets low, because once they lose automobiles they no longer benefit from volume when prices are low. They'll be just stuck with the % of fools who have recent investments in the old technology. So prices will go up, demand will shrink but firm up, and then it will be almost totally local suppliers.

      Prices only drop as long as oversupply continues. At some point supply will start to drop and counter weakening demand.

      Something like a war in the middle east could spike prices and push people into electric cars, and prices would drop even with just local supply. But they wouldn't drop any further than they absolutely had to. And prices in Europe would remain high. The only thing protecting American consumers from super-high prices in that scenario is the regulatory difficulty of new exports.

  27. Re: Only works while extraction costs sales pric by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Hence the focus on actual costs. Not nuts.

  28. Diversity of energy sources more important by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Even more important than "renewable" energy is diversity of energy sources. Every source of energy has its drawbacks:

    - Hydroelectric dams are "renewable" and fossil-free. But they disrupt river life.
    - Wind farms kill birds and (in some people's view) ruin landscapes.
    - Nuclear energy creates waste products that are very, very hard to safely dispose of, and create risks of leaking in natural disasters.
    - Solar energy farms require a lot of land, and endanger and displace wildlife.
    - Tidal-powered turbines kill marine life.

    Any energy source, if replicated at extremely large scales, will have major undesirable side effects. If instead we have a wide array of sources, each one's negative impacts won't be as widespread.

    Just like with investing money...don't put all your eggs in one basket.

    1. Re:Diversity of energy sources more important by dwywit · · Score: 2

      Solar energy farms aren't the best way to go about it. There's a lot of space available on domestic roofs - in areas where sunlight is plentiful, you can generate a substantial amount of energy from your roof.

      Now, getting the grid to cope with that kind of input is another matter.

      But you're absolutely right about diversity. I wonder about the kind of mindset that thinks an all-electric dwelling is the way to go.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    2. Re:Diversity of energy sources more important by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      Noticed you didn;t list any drawbacks of fossil fuel energy.
      "Wind farms kill birds" - overblown negative - loads of birds die flying into vehicles, cats kill millions more birds than all the turbines. All farms require a lot of land, at least with solar panels you can still have sheep on the same land to keep the grass cut and provide shade for the sheep.
      "Any energy source, if replicated at extremely large scales, will have major undesirable side effects." - Major - certainly in the form of fossil power generation. Thats why a load of solar panels on all buildings with storage (where possible) connected to local but interconnected micro grids creating distributed power generation is the way to go.

      "Just like with investing money...don't put all your eggs in one basket." - agreed.

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    3. Re:Diversity of energy sources more important by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 1

      You're right, I didn't list drawbacks of fossil fuels, because the story was about renewable energy. The drawbacks of fossil fuels are widely known: air pollution, accidents that foul rivers and oceans, minor earthquakes.

      With that said, I think fossil fuels can be a part of a diverse energy future. We should reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, but not necessarily eliminate it.

      You can nit-pick the negative effects of specific items on my list, but regardless, there are drawbacks to any energy source, at large enough scale.

    4. Re:Diversity of energy sources more important by Dixie_Flatline · · Score: 1

      Wind farms are actually far deadlier to migratory bats than birds. Bats can't deal with the pressure change from entering areas near wind turbines, and it basically busts their lungs; they don't even need to collide with anything.

      That said, the bat researchers that I know or have heard support wind turbines anyway, they just think more care needs to be taken in the placement of them. Wind turbines kill a lot of things, but burning and extracting coal kills a lot more. (None of this is to contradict you, I think your thesis is correct.)

    5. Re:Diversity of energy sources more important by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

      Actually, coal plants kill more birds than wind farms, on a per Gigawatt basis. So, in point of fact, wind is more positive for birds than coal is.

      --
      -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  29. Re:It already is... by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 4, Informative

    And they left out 2 trillion dollars for a war in iraq over oil.
    And they left out 4,000 dead for a war over oil.
    And they left out ongoing military capability required to fight a war in that region plus the cost of stationing thousands of troops.

    And they left out the nearly trillion dollar subsidy to coal by allowing it to dig up coal for below market rates on federal lands.

    And so on.

    The subsidies for fossil fuel are woven so deep they don't even look like subsidies any more (like special accounting laws only used by the fossil fuel industry that save them billions of dollars per year).

    And the ongoing incalculable health care and productivity costs for everyone who grew up inhaling lead from gasoline.

    Alternative enegy isn't pollution free. But the pollution tends to be concentrated geographically instead of spread all over everywhere.

    The point is that alternative energy subsidies are a drop in the bucket compared to fossil fuel subsidies.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  30. Re:Sure by Socguy · · Score: 1

    Soon even the USA will be forced to put a price on carbon. Once demand begins to dip and fossil fuel prices start to fall, governments will start to increase the carbon pricing to prevent retaking of market share.

    I'm sure a ton of people are going to laugh at me saying this, but I suspect those will be the same people who only a year or two ago laughed when the 'nut jobs' claimed renewables were soon going to out-compete fossil fuels at base-load generation on price. We may not be there quite yet everywhere, but by this point, it's clearly only a matter of time.

  31. Re: It already is... by jonwil · · Score: 1

    Pumped Hydro as a storage medium for intermittent sources like solar and wind is a good idea if the costs add up (i.e. the cost for x kWh of Pumped Hydro in a given location is lower than the cost for building something else instead to supply the same power, be that battery storage or whatever)

  32. Re:That will not make any difference. by jonwil · · Score: 1

    Not all members of those particular religions are against action on climate change or want to bring about the end of the world. I know people personally who are part of those particular faiths who are very much in favor of cleaning up the planet and stopping climate change.

  33. Re:It already is... by vtcodger · · Score: 4, Informative

    I cold buy to put in some pumped hydro. That type of base storage is where the next gold rush will be found.

    Not awful logic, but it overlooks quite a few rather important factors

    1. Pumped hydro can be cheap, but only if you use it a lot. Today, it is used to store energy generated during periods of low demand (wee hours of the morning) to store energy to be sold back during periods of high demand. That works because such periods occur predictably every day. Try that with things like wind and solar which are intermittent, with seasonal or 3-4 day supply peaks. The pumped storage costs -- which are mostly capital and maintenance --will be higher.

    2. You need to pump a lot of water to do pumped storage. Very roughly, you need to lift 1 cubic meter (1 metric tonne) 100 meters to store 1Kwh. There aren't a lot of sites available that have both abundant water and terrain that will support both an upper and a lower pool.

    3. Practical pumped storage efficiencies are typically 70% give or take a bit. That's put 4kwh in to get 3kwh back. That can work, but only when the differential between low demand and peak demand is substantial.

    4. Capital costs for pumped storage are very high. Investment recovery time is probably decades. Battery technology IS improving, albeit slowly. It could make your facility obsolete before you've pocketed wealth beyond belief ... or even paid off your loans. Likewise, widespread adoption of electric vehicles charged at off hours could reduce the peak load differential that your economics depend on.

    Think of pumped storage as a huge battery that comes only in sizes humongous and even bigger. It has a very long lifetime -- decades, maybe centuries. Its self discharge rate (leaks,evaporation) is low.. No memory effects. Can discharge safely to zero (Don't try THAt with say Lion). . But it has rather low charging efficiency (70% give or take). And it can fail catastrophically (dam failure) which will likely be VERY costly.

    Oh yes, and it's not all that great environmentally because of constantly varying pool levels -- plan on being sued ... probably repeatedly -- once radical environmentalists figure that out.

    --
    You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
  34. Re:Trend by dwywit · · Score: 1

    But it's INTEL ONLY!

    --
    They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
  35. Re: It already is... by drewsup · · Score: 2

    They have already moved past this, you don't need pumped hydro or railroad cars with concrete blocks in the back to store excess energy, you just need a large vertically suspended concrete or lead block that can slowly descend with gearing to a generator, takes up minimal room, can be scaled easily, and is currently being tested!

  36. Oh, What a Coincidence! by franzrogar · · Score: 1

    Just when the fossil fuels are still getting national bonuses, removing renewable national bonuses and the fuels companies buying the technology of renewable companies closing... (All of this is actually happening in Spain right now)

    Still the same shit with different wrapper.

  37. Re:Sure by Z80a · · Score: 1

    I don't think you can use the liberal word to describe those people you're pointing out.
    They're authoritarian as fuck, given all the tendencies of wanting the government to control every aspect of your life and wanting to censor speech.
    Also, as a right winger, you're probably pro nuclear, that is also a clean energy source.

  38. Re:Goody we can stop subsidies and Tax Credits by dave420 · · Score: 1

    Says Mr. "I can't tell the difference between sea and land ice" :)

  39. A little bit misleading by zifn4b · · Score: 1

    Renewable Energy Set To Be Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels By 2020, Says Report

    There are two main sources of fossil fuel consumption, electricity and automobiles. This refers to electricity consumption, in essence replacing old fossil fuel burning power plants with clean, renewable energy. Hooray! Sign me up to get my house outfitted with highly efficient solar shingles. Unfortunately, this doesn't help fossil fuel consumption by automobiles but it's definitely progress in the right direction.

    The challenge for climate change will be getting China to consider the alternative

    --
    We'll make great pets
    1. Re:A little bit misleading by dehachel12 · · Score: 1

      The challenge for climate change will be getting the US to consider the alternative

      FTFY

    2. Re:A little bit misleading by zifn4b · · Score: 2

      The challenge for climate change will be getting the US to consider the alternative

      FTFY

      Negative. The problem is how this issue is spun. US may use more kWh per capita but in terms of total consumption, China beats us hands down. China's consumption is also increasing while the US's consumption is decreasing. Evidence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.... Thanks for playing though.

      --
      We'll make great pets
    3. Re:A little bit misleading by dehachel12 · · Score: 1

      china is however pushing hard on EV's and removing coal.

    4. Re:A little bit misleading by zifn4b · · Score: 1

      china is however pushing hard on EV's and removing coal.

      It's obviously not effective:

      China: https://www.google.com/search?...
      United States: https://www.google.com/search?...

      Talk is cheap, results are all that matters.

      --
      We'll make great pets
    5. Re:A little bit misleading by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      China knows the problem they have and politically is heading in the correct direction whereas trump is not. Unfortunately China is a huge barge that will take a while to turn around. Per capita is the way to compare because because of the size of the populations, if you don't then you just encourage complacency and have no desire to improve. I guess you understand that as your links do show China per capita usage is one third of USA per capita usage even though their market growth rate over the last decade or so is so much higher than virtually anyone else.

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    6. Re:A little bit misleading by zifn4b · · Score: 1

      That's fine but it doesn't change the fact that China consumes the most energy in the world and they are increasing their consumption. I don't care about propaganda. I care about actual data and statistics, you know facts? When the energy consumption trend levels off or starts going lower, China will be doing something productive. Until then, they are consuming more than the United States and have a consistent trend of energy consumption. In terms of all issues related to energy consumption, China is absolutely the worst offender and they need to do better.

      --
      We'll make great pets
    7. Re:A little bit misleading by zifn4b · · Score: 1

      China knows the problem they have and politically is heading in the correct direction whereas trump is not.

      The data doesn't support your argument if you ACTUALLY look at it. Our energy consumption trends are levelling off and going down over the past 20 years. China's has consistently gone up. And this is not about Trump you idiot. We're are talking the past TWENTY YEARS. That would be Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and now Trump. Take your Trump hating shit elsewhere moron.

      --
      We'll make great pets
    8. Re:A little bit misleading by zifn4b · · Score: 1

      per capita, US energy consumption is more than that of China. demanding that they level off now borders on racism.

      Trolly trolly troll... pathetic. How is it in your parents' basement moron?

      --
      We'll make great pets
  40. Re:It already is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    You just left out most of the costs of fossil fuels!

    What, objectively, is the full cost of fossil fuels?

    They also leave out the full cost of renewables, which include massive transmission upgrades and a huge reserve margin cost to handle intermittency.

  41. Re:It already is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Are you going to then add in all the side benefits of fossil fuels humans have enjoyed over the years as well? And are there no soft costs from alternative energy sources to consider or is only oil subject to the more rigorous analysis?

  42. Re:So we can end subsities? by Barsteward · · Score: 1

    "Chart of the month: Driven by Tesla, battery prices cut in half since 2014"
    https://thinkprogress.org/char...

    --
    "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  43. Re:With or without subsidys? by Barsteward · · Score: 1

    there is no need to subsidize fossil fuel after 100+ years to get it right but they still do in all sorts of ways

    --
    "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  44. Re:With or Without Subsisides? by Barsteward · · Score: 1

    thats because you forget the subsidies also given to the fossil fuel industry in various forms for 100+ years

    --
    "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  45. Re:It already is... by edtice1559 · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    What side benefit? Black lung disease? Saves us the cost of providing health care to retired coal miners since they don't live long enough to retire?

  46. Re:It already is... by OrangeTide · · Score: 2

    People died building the Hoover Dam, that's an inescapable fact.

    --
    “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
  47. Re:So we can end subsities? by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

    Serious question what kind of batteries did you use for your solar install. The Tesla batteries which had a bunch of hype and were pushed as being ultra cheap looked to cost the same as the really old Nickle-Iron batteries. Both of which look to do better than deep cycle lead acid on a cost per watt hour. If you used lead acid there isn't much that can be done to increase capacity or decrease costs, especially since those have fairly short lifetimes so effort has gone into increasing those but that adds costs. At this point I would still probably choose Nickle-Iron over lithium ion batteries because of the longevity of Nickle-Iron cells and how they stand up to abuse and neglect.

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    Time to offend someone
  48. Re: Renewable is PRE-PAID by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

    1MWh is is huge battery I've only heard of those being used for grid level storage. Even for a large a 19KWh (48 volts @ 300Ah) storage system you would be looking at about $15,000 which should be a few days if one isn't dumb about usage. That assumes that you didn't build in any additional redundancy into your generation capacity like a couple of those small 700W windmills that aren't that expensive.

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    Time to offend someone
  49. Re:That will not make any difference. by Green+Mountain+Bot · · Score: 2

    I don't think you're going to find any reform or conservative Jews who think that, and I doubt you'll find more than a handful of orthodox Jews who do. As for Christians, I've only ever seen that sort of thinking from the fundamentalist sects - who I will grant are the most visible and powerful group of Christians in the US. But Catholics, Lutherans, Presbyterians, Episcopalians, Congregationalists, and Methodists generally do not think that way. As for Muslims, I must admit a fair amount of ignorance, but I doubt that the mainline sects are any more apocalyptic than mainline Jews or Christians.

  50. Re:So we can end subsities? by Ferretman · · Score: 1

    Sorry, not particularly relevant. That's a particular and relatively out-of-date tech (which is why it's cheaper), and it only breaks even (they don't make a profit) in mass quantities. That's basically the secret to Tesla's success--"lose a bit on every sale, but make it up in volume".....

    My stuff was rather more expensive and much smaller lots, unfortunately. It hasn't budged a notch in three years.

    I'm very much looking forward to good battery tech, but it would take 5 or 6 Tesla Powerpacks to meet the demands of my system. Things will get better, in time. I'm looking forward to a good electric SUV so I don't have dangly bits to catch every danged rock in the canyon. Once they double the range and cut a zero off that price tag we can start talking I reckon....

    Ferret

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    Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
  51. Re:So we can end subsities? by Ferretman · · Score: 1

    I got EnergyCell RE high capacity batteries....2300AH/2V per battery. I had to get 24 of them for my 48V system. Having enough for a 60V system WOULD have made for a slightly more efficient system when the DC ran through the inverters to generate AC, but I thought that cost a smidge too much. They're an AGM tech.

    There were better and higher amp hour ones from China and Taiwan, but I couldn't make the shipping work. These do work pretty well though; I can (and have) gone four days without any significant sunlight, quite impressive performance.

    A friend of mine in town is putting in his Powerwall in March, I think. He uses somewhat less electricity but he's probably going to have a couple of days stored there (haven't really run the numbers yet since it's not there yet). He has just over 10kw of panels (mine are older panels of course, making 8.8kw). We're very excited to see how it works out for him! I think pretty much anybody can/should put panels at least for a grid-tied system....at the very least it lowers your utility bill if nothing else.

    Ferret

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    Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
  52. Re:Energy Storage by Ferretman · · Score: 1

    Concur.

    Ferret

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    Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
  53. Re:Why is it called renewable instead of abundant? by Ann+O'Nymous-Coward · · Score: 1

    Oh spare me. The sun is going to be around much longer than humanity. Piss off, you persnickety little pedant.

  54. It already is in most of North America by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

    With the exception of very few regions, and Alaska is not one of them, it's already cheaper in most parts of North America.

    If it weren't for massive tax subsidies and tax exemptions for fossil fuels, the market would have already replaced the inefficient fossil fuels with cheaper renewables.

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    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  55. Re:Cost of fossil by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

    Actually, you're describing the solar cycle. Wind power is strongest at night and weakest in the daytime, which is why balanced renewable systems tend to use a mix of solar and wind with hydro or gas or compressed air storage or battery for shaping.

    Which actually tends to match the consumption cycle fairly closely, given the demands from industry and commercial usage and their cycles.

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    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  56. Re: With or without subsidys? by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 1

    It does, a third of a day for four days a week during a normal summer, but not during the winter months where it provides zilch and just wears down.

    Um, I just got a $115 credit for solar generation in the Winter, here in Seattle, so that's obviously untrue.

    Fairly certain wind power works most of the year too.

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    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  57. Hard to compete with free fuel by mspohr · · Score: 1

    Fossil fuels always have a cost. Wind and solar have unlimited free fuel... forever.
    Now that the capital cost of wind and solar have come down, the fact that they run on free fuel means they will take over.
    I recently read that only half the coal power plants in the US are breaking even.
    Economics will drive fossil fuels out of business. It's just not cost effective to build a fossil fuel plant (even with all the subsidies they receive and considering that they don't have to pay for all of the health and environmental damage they cause).

    --
    I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
  58. Re:So we can end subsities? by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

    I am always interested in what people are doing and how things work for them as eventually I will have an off grid system when I get a cabin built as I don't want to pay to have a line run and for a transformer or have to run, maintain, and fuel a generator. I would be curious to hear how the AGMs hold up under use over the years as for the current application I have for them I haven't seen a good use-case to justify the additional cost (trolling motor battery) so instead just got a larger regular deep cycle battery.

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    Time to offend someone
  59. Re:It already is... by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

    Side benefits, like 3 wars in the last 25 years?
    at 3 trillion so far?

  60. Re:It already is... by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 2

    Oh, so now fossil fuels are responsible for vaccines?
    The SINGLE biggest extender of lives in human history.

  61. Re:It already is... by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    That would explain the popularity of solar and wind, and also the investment in wave generation.

    "Hydro" is not the future, unless you're thinking of the ocean. Certainly freshwater hydro is past its peak in the US, and most places.

    Canada might still see future growth in some regions.

  62. Re:It already is... by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    It wasn't about oil. We won, we didn't get the oil. We stayed, we still didn't get the oil. We overstayed until it started a new war to drive us out, and we still didn't get the oil.

    It clearly had reasons, but hindsight says oil wasn't very high on the list.

  63. Re:It already is... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Your number one is plain wrong.
    Pumped storage is used as balancing power. That has nothing to do with 'price'. After all the company that owns the pumped storage plant also owns the coal plant that fills the storage during the 'wee hours'.

    Number 3 is plain wrong too, pumped storage efficiency is above 81%, roughly 90% for the oump and roughly 90% for the turbine.

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  64. Re:Why is it called renewable instead of abundant? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    How would you prove it isn't renewable? Where does it go after it dies? Where do new stars come from? Is there any connection?

  65. Re:It already is... by Chas · · Score: 1

    The reason I discount wave generation is the cost to build the generators to marine standards is exorbitant (pretty much on par with building things to aerospace standards).

    --


    Chas - The one, the only.
    THANK GOD!!!
  66. Re:It already is... by volmtech · · Score: 1

    Always with the subsidies, mostly because you think any business not taxed into penury is somehow subsidized. And what about the benefits, has anyone calculated the vast amount of wealth created from the use of fossil fuels? Let us imagine fossil fuels were banned after WWII. No trade with China, windjammers don't carry much. No skyscrapers, without coal steel is too expensive. Half of the population would still be on the farm looking at the south end of a north bound mule. No aviation or satellite systems. Not even a steam punk world, the Earth's wood supply replacement is too slow. Paradise? I guess, if you think 1790 was the pinnacle of human existence.

    No one was prescient enough to do that. Even now that it is abundantly clear we have to stop using fossil fuels immediately their use actually increases every year. The wars to keep the oil flowing are nothing compared to the wars that will be needed to stop it.

  67. Re:It already is... by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    Right, handwaving away a whole category of technology because you only saw early designs that were overpriced.

    That's just silly, as is claiming that saltware boat docks have to be built to an equivalent of "aerospace standards." This is no different than other equipment that is operated in the ocean. You're simply ignorant of the wide range of different types of devices that can convert wave energy into electricity. It goes up, down, up, down, this isn't hard. A person who thinks that is inherently expensive is an idiot. It is expensive because anything industrial done on a small scale is expensive. There is nothing complicated about this, it doesn't require expensive materials, and it runs in a mostly automated manner. There is nothing there to make it expensive. Waving yours hands won't work, even if you wear expensive gloves while you do it.

  68. Re:It already is... by Chas · · Score: 1

    I said "discount", not "eliminate".

    And with wave power, we're not talking about "boat docks". We're talking about mechanical systems that have to survive in a living marine environment.
    Ask the US Navy about how hard it is keeping submersible equipment functioning in that sort of environment.

    --


    Chas - The one, the only.
    THANK GOD!!!
  69. Re:It already is... by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    Ask the US Navy about how hard it is keeping submersible equipment functioning in that sort of environment.

    You'll find out the US Navy does it all the time, they're really good at it.

    Also, this isn't theory. There are real devices that exist. No need for imaginary straw men, Chicken Little!

    And run down to the ocean and take a look, civilians are operating equipment in the water all day.