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After Rising For 100 Years, Electricity Demand is Flat (vox.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report: The US electricity sector is in a period of unprecedented change and turmoil. Renewable energy prices are falling like crazy. Natural gas production continues its extraordinary surge. Coal, the golden child of the current administration, is headed down the tubes. In all that bedlam, it's easy to lose sight of an equally important (if less sexy) trend: Demand for electricity is stagnant. Thanks to a combination of greater energy efficiency, outsourcing of heavy industry, and customers generating their own power on site, demand for utility power has been flat for 10 years, and most forecasts expect it to stay that way. The die was cast around 1998, when GDP growth and electricity demand growth became "decoupled." This historic shift has wreaked havoc in the utility industry in ways large and small, visible and obscure. Some of that havoc is high-profile and headline-making, as in the recent requests from utilities (and attempts by the Trump administration) to bail out large coal and nuclear plants.
as in the recent requests from utilities (and attempts by the Trump administration) to bail out large coal and nuclear plants.
When you switch to more energy efficient products, this is a natural side effect. EVs will change that obviously.
...but in developing countries.
While TFA did point out, "US", it seems rather pointless because the demand, and thus the generation, and thus the pollution is occurring overseas.Just because it's not here doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
It's like you cleaned up your back yard by throwing all the trash over the fence. Coming soon, we will be bitching at our neighbors about all the trash in their yard.
So before the Enviro's celebrate, they should consider that they have successfully pushed the pollution into countries that are ill equipped to handle it from regulatory and societal standpoints, yet the US and other western countries are still benefiting from it.
When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
What is NOT increasing, is the demand for UTILITIES electricity. That has been flat for some time depending on the state. If you are in a state that fights against Solar/Wind, then utility demand continues.
However, what is missing is that this is about to change in a HUGE way. In particular, EVs will be coming on very strong esp with Commercial trucking. While cars will outsell the trucks, the trucks are ran 5-10x as much . As such, within 5 years, these will put a huge demand on electricity. Worse, it will not be a simple increase in electricity but will be heavy spikes in demand.
It is for exactly this reason that we need base-load powers, such as nuclear.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
The price on LED lighting has come down so much, that I have just finished converting my entire house to LED lighting. It has made a big difference in my electric bill. Also big power sucking CRT TVs are being replaced rapidly with LED backlit flat screens.
I would expect the electric use to start a downward trend from this point.
First law of people: People are generally stupid.
More cryptocurrencies.
And then they developed Bitcoin and all the other cryptocurrencies to increase demand for electricity. ;)
Not total energy consumption. Also most new plants are built by energy wholesalers and investors that fund them and not large utilities anymore. Electric wholesalers prefer natural gas, wind, and solar.
growth outside the developing world has more or less stopped. There's been a pretty large scale transference of wealth to the top earners here in America. I know Japan's got out of control wealth inequality and even Europe's starting to see it. Less money means smaller homes, less activity, fewer new electrical devices and above all fewer children. Combine that with new tech (LED bulbs, LCDs, new air conditioners and heaters) and it was bound to happen.
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Multiple factors:
Flat screen TVs replacing most of television CRTs.
LED Bulbs replacing Incandescent.
Laptops and tablets replacing a lot of desktops, remaining desktops not using CRTs any more.
Some of that is offset by huge gaming systems with enormous power supplies, and bitcoin mining rigs. They are probably a minority nowadays..
The two things that use the most power in my household are my furnace (for the blowers) and probably my DVR.
The upcoming Windows 11 forced upgrade.
Seriously, the "market" is the only thing on the planet that considers infinite growth, or even exponential explosions, a "good" thing.
The only things in nature that act like that, are deadly pathogens and explosions.
Everybody else is smart enough to figure out the inevitability of death, resulting from such a dynamic in a world of non-infinite resources.
That's what you get, when you let people "make" money without working for it (like thieves and forgers), or even completely make it up, like banks and the stock market.
the perpetually drunk US puppet Boris Yeltsin.
Whose campaign was sponsored with $300 million CIA money, funneled to him via the world bank. While his only opponent had $3 milllion, and got constantly harassed by agents, going so far as to cancel his hotel rooms.
So if you think Putin elected Trump ... :D ... ...
I'll let you figure that one out for yourself.
...but in developing countries.
While TFA did point out, "US", it seems rather pointless because the demand, and thus the generation, and thus the pollution is occurring overseas.Just because it's not here doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
It's like you cleaned up your back yard by throwing all the trash over the fence. Coming soon, we will be bitching at our neighbors about all the trash in their yard.
So before the Enviro's celebrate, they should consider that they have successfully pushed the pollution into countries that are ill equipped to handle it from regulatory and societal standpoints, yet the US and other western countries are still benefiting from it.
This is a *very* interesting development, for the following reason:
All modern theories of economics ("schools of thought" as they are called) assume infinite demand, either by infinitely increasing population or infinitely increasing demands per person, or both.
So for example, theory has it that you can double your sales income if you double your sales outlets - by opening stores in other states, for instance. Problem with this is that the world is finite and eventually you reach diminishing returns. Many companies found this out the hard way when they started selling through WalMart - once your jeans (or pickles) are sold at Walmart, you're done. You can no longer increase sales *at all*.
We know that population begins to level off and decline when countries become modernized, and now it looks like demand itself has a fixed upper limit.
If consumption is fixed, then lots of macro economic theory is simply incorrect. If efficiency per-worker reaches a level where half the available workers can fulfill the demands of the population, what do you do with the other half that can't find work?
It's these sorts of observations and extrapolations that lead people to think of possible solutions like reduced-hours work week (for the same pay), or UBI.
Since industry jobs are bound to come back, this would mean that electricity demand will rise up again. Wouldn't it be a better thing to think ahead and prepare energy production beforehand?
Demand for electricity is stagnant. Thanks to a combination of greater energy efficiency, outsourcing of heavy industry, and customers generating their own power on site, demand for utility power has been flat for 10 years, and most forecasts expect it to stay that way.
Assuming that demand has been flat domestically, the outsourcing of certain energy intensive industries doesn't mean the demand has gone away. It just places it in a different geographic location. That's not the same thing as flat demand.
we've seen a lot of recent adoption of flat screens and LED lighting, over the last couple of years, in businesses and homes, which should have shown a significant *decrease* in demand. But since it flatlined, you can guess that the surplus was taken up by EVs perhaps, and increased population demands.
What can be predicted is, as we near "peak energy efficiency" is a slow, then rapid climb of demand as we run out of ways to make lights and computers and such more efficient. Increased uptake of EVs will require more of the horsepower in kilowatts that used to be fossil fuels.
At least greater EV uptake is the hope. So either we increase demand because of that, or we've failed with EV adoption and will only see growth in load to match population needs.
Will eventually push demand up, a lot. Which is why it's good we are at least leveling off other demand increases.
The utilities (at least the power companies at my workplace and at my home) have very aggressive energy efficiency programs and rebates for things like upgrading to CFLs and LEDs. Every time I open a bill, half the contents are literature on other ways I can reduce my energy consumption.
Perfectly flat electricity demand is the ideal case for the utilities. They don't have to spend money on building new generating plants, which may end up superfluous if demand doesn't increase as much as expected. They don't have to string up new transmission lines to meet higher consumption. Under flat demand, their only expenses are fuel, maintenance, and labor.
Some of that is offset by huge gaming systems with enormous power supplies, and bitcoin mining rigs. They are probably a minority nowadays..
I think you hugely overestimate the number of people who have gaming rigs with their attendant out sized power requirements. Compared to the number of computers out there it is a fraction of a single percent. In other words a rounding error. Same with bitcoin mining. It's getting way more play in the media than it really justifies and really the number of people involved is a good approximation of insignificant.
the demand, and thus the generation, and thus the pollution is occurring overseas.
Exactly - and with demand up just where are all these countries getting coal? Why partly from the U.S. of course, which saw an INCREASE in both price and production of coal in 2017.
The summary claim that coal is "headed down the tubes" (much less that it is the "golden child") is sadly yet more Fake News by people who don't understand the modern world economy, they only see things as they wish them to be.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Residential electricity consumption is down. Some of this is people buying solar panels and wind turbines for their houses. And managing that "in house". Some of that is much more efficient appliances and lighting and consumer electronics. While PCs have not decreased power draw, laptops have. As more people switch to LEDs and high efficiency washers, dryers, ranges, ovens, microwaves, and fridges, they notice their utility bills plummet.
Commercial electricity consumption is only growing slightly. For much the same reasons as residential electricity consumption. But many firms like Google with a large presence build their own solar and wind farms to provide their own power at their buildings, instead of paying a premium for off site electricity generation. The move to DC server farms has also impacted this.
Industrial electricity consumption is actually growing. However, many industrial firms are also building their own solar, wind, and hydro power generation units, much like the commercial sector.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
The average US household drives 20,000 miles a year. If all of that were electric, it would be roughly 6000 kWh per year, or about half the average total consumption of a US household. EVs will very soon be as convenient as gasoline cars and much cheaper overall to drive, so I would think adoption could happen quite rapidly and would sop up any excess electric power demand. It is a perfect match for solar energy because the cars can be charged anywhere anytime.
Electricity use has plateaued because the biggest industrial users of electricity have moved overseas. This includes the manufacture of aluminum and steel, which are hugely energy-intensive, as well as pretty much all other manufacturing. So, not only is the global pollution not mitigated, it also means a lower standard of living in the US.
This has been known for years. I believe there were even some articles a few years back where utilities were complaining that they needed to be able to hike rates because people "weren't using enough electricity". Of course few years before that many were demanding similar rate hikes because people were "using too much electricity". And we've barely scratched the surface of potential energy savings technologies/methodologies. Hopefully co-generation will catch on more in the next decade, for example before going to heat your home/water a fossil fuel could be fed through a system to generate electricity. Thermal energy goes to waste in many places throughout our lives (cars, homes, businesses), if we're making it we might as well get our moneys worth out of it.
Electricity is the key to de-carbonization over the next few decades. The easy part is carbon-free electricity generation. As noted, renewable prices are in free-fall. I've been a big nuke-booster for decades, but even that option may not be needed, so low are wind and solar prices getting to be. (We need a major new grid to make that work, of course: only across a large continent is the wind always blowing somewhere... Also, we need some power storage; people had been thinking mountain lakes, pumps and turbines, but the Australian mega-battery has me wondering...)
Then there's transportation, and battery improvements would indicate we might be able to replace most cars and light trucks with electric; trains can be electric.
And there's home heating. Heat pumps have gotten so good we could ditch our entire piping infrastructure that moves, basically, an explosive around the city into every home. That's been a nutty idea since it started, and now there's more reason than ever to move off of it.
We can eliminate 90% of natural gas, 90% of gasoline, half of diesel, half of avgas, with technologies that now exist, given only determination and, well, a huge pile of money. We'd have to build a lot of infrastructure, from that trillion-dollar grid, a few trillion in renewable power plants, to a zillion changing stations to an all-electric train system. But it's engineering and accounting, not new science.
Even the staggering costs are not that daunting, really. Yes, you're talking a whole year's GDP for the US ($13 T) but that would be spread over about 25 years, and most of it would be private investments into utilities and trains and private vehicle purchases. [No, I don't know *how* you get 100 million households to all convert to heat pumps at $10K each when they hated giving up light bulbs; I'm just saying the engineering and money are do-able. ]
And it would all depend on using a LOT more electricity instead of combustible gases and fluids.
Sales are flat. Natural gas generation is increasing. Renewable electric generation is increasing. Coal is being squeezed. That's all true. But the electric system will go through unprecedented change over the next 4 decades, and all of it will require electric utility investment. The power company isn't going broke any time soon, and the utilities are decidedly not freaking out.
Support a few technologists in Washington.
Developing country electricity demand is a combination of manufacturing demand, of which a lot of that production is exported to the developed world. However there is a lot of domestic consumption too as the standard of living rises in those countries.
It's not quite as simple as, "the developed world outsourced pollution to the 3rd world".
LED and CFL bulbs have hit rational price points, with some LED bulbs selling cheaper than incandescents did. Can;t be the whole story, but a lot of people are switching to low power lighting, high efficiency appliances, etc. The number of items needing power might still be growing as normal, but the per-item power usage is dropping this year and perhaps for the next few years, but that will hit a wall, and the overall demand will explode again.
captcha: rebound. I can't make that up
320 watt 22 in a pallet for 2200.00 is all you need to know. DYI.
This was an article in VOX. Don't expect quality journalism from the warmed-over Daily Kos.
Nonpartisan reality checks don't get the "insightful" mod around here any more. You need to be more loudly in favor of nuclear railguns.
Flat demand creates all kinds of mischief but flat demand is nothing compared to declining demand. As more and more homes are able to go off grid the problem will become dramatic. Imagine being the only home left on your block connected to the power grid. Your electric bill will go through the roof as you are supporting more and more of the power companies needs. The use of solar roofs and solar walls may also collect enough power to supply our vehicles as well. That points to two other big events. Normal cars and trucks will suddenly be obsolete. And homes and apartment houses that are not up to date with solar roofs and solar walls will need at the very least a complete remodeling. even getting a mortgage for a on the grid type of home will probably become impossible. . Getting a car loan could also become a huge problem for conventional vehicles as investors may correctly think that conventional vehicles have no real value and that borrowers will walk away from car loans financed when normal vehicles were desirable. I'll bet that we see companies spring up to do nothing but convert specific vehicles to modern, electric units. For example there are plenty of Ford F 150 pickup trucks that could be converted to electric or hybrid trucks.
These have been huge for me.
And they are so cheap now.
And the light quality is finally good as of a few years ago.
I have 20-30 in my house. They use the energy of 3 incandescent bulbs.
I haven't had one go bad yet. Tho I have rolled 4 out of use because they were so bad compared to current bulbs (I had a "20" watt that probably put out about 150 lumens. lol)
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
Figure that will change if/when we transition the U.S. civilian fleet of automobiles from gasoline to electricity. The amount of juice needed to fully replace gas-powered cars is enormous.
The author is either being sensationalist or does not comprehend the difference between the time span of the plan and the update cycle of the plan.
From the article:
Every five years, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) — the federally owned regional planning agency that, among other things, supplies electricity to Tennessee and parts of surrounding states — develops an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) meant to assess what it requires to meet customer needs for the next 20 years. ... ...
This startling shift in prospects has prompted the company to accelerate its schedule. It will now develop its next IRP a year early, in 2019.
TVA wanted a plan for 20 years; the plan lasted three.
[less growth in developed world due to wealth concentration ... Little guys have] Less money means smaller homes, less activity, fewer new electrical devices and above all fewer children. Combine that with new tech (LED bulbs, LCDs, new air conditioners and heaters) and it was bound to happen.
IMHO the big issue is that the cost per watt for solar photovoltaic, in a reasonably sunny mid-latitude site, crossed-over that of grid power - and then dropped farther. It's not just the drastic efficiency of the new devices (Like LEDs, at about 1/8th the power of incandescents and only about a factor of two above theoretical perfection). It's that it's becoming cheaper to go solar even with paying the up-front cost.
And some of that IS accessible to the allegedly impoverished 99% masses: There are a number of companies that will cut you (or your landlord) a deal where THEY lease your roof area, buy, install, and maintain the new equipment, then sell you electricity at a rate that splits the savings with you.
IMHO the utilities are in for a hard time - and would be on their way to join the dinosaurs in the tar pits if it weren't for electric cars coming on line. It takes a LOT of power to move vehicles. Even with hystreically good efficiency and regenerative braking they need enough that it may be better to feed them from the grid than pave your yard with panels, too.
Which is good for those who AREN'T in a sunny area, as it might keep utilities afloat and their prices affordable.
Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
There are only so many plugs in which to put a wall wart.
if it is cheaper to buy australian LPG in Japan than piped to a house in Australia then something is screwed
It should say US demand is flat. World demand is still growing as the industrial world continues to electrify.
Demand is stagnant because the price of energy is pushing against the most the market will bear. Try asking any average American household if they would be willing to add another $100+ to their energy bill for a new whizbang coffee maker. EV is the main exception because people see it as a net neutral or better investment in oil prices.
My 60 watt bulbs are now all 8-12 watts. The TV has gone from a power eating tube to a backlit LCD. Major Appliances have all gone on a diet.
We used to heat with fan heaters / gas heaters. The heatpump we installed made a huge difference. Much more output for less power consumed. Don't tend to use if in Summer (now, NZ); just open a couple of windows and the cross-ventilation is enough.
LEDs for sure too but for us the power consumed in winter is^H^H was significant.
Does the fine analysis account for things like the 70 kWh we developed here at home, today? Demand from the electric companies may be down. But I bet we're still using more energy than ever before if you include all the energy generated on site that does not get billed by the electric companies. They know what we get from them. They know what we give to them. They have no idea how much we use here. And we use the greater part of those 70 kWh. (Or the 90+ on a good day when it's not cloudy.)
{^_^}
Environmentally Beneficial Electrification, primarily the increased adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps, could double electricity demand by 2050 while increasing energy efficiency and reducing both pollution and GHG emissions. Any flattening of electricity demand is temporary and should not influence policy. We should be pleased to see electricity demand begin to grow more and more rapidly after about 2024. This fuel-switching from end use fossil fuel combustion to electricity will constitute the Second Great Electrification of our society and will result in a massive transfer of revenue from the fossil fuel to the electricity sector.
It is essential that we begin planning now to produce and consume twice as much electricity rather than being swayed by a temporary moderation of demand. We should also begin to plan the managed de-capitalization of the retail natural gas utilities. Natural gas, if used in the future, should only be used for generating electricity. Homes and businesses should be "all-electric" and rely on electric vehicles, induction cooking, and heat pumps. Although utilities are still trying to expand their natural gas customer base, it is essential that we recognize that any new natural gas infrastructure is likely to become a stranded asset prior to 2050.
See: Brattle Group Report, projecting doubling of electricity demand: http://www.brattle.com/news-an...
LEDs are pretty danged awesome tech, really. I think some folks *are* using less power overall due to light pollution concerns.
It's a good thing, to be sure.
Ferret
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
So reduce that figure by 80%. 1200, or about 10% of the total consumption.