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Scientists Unsure Where Chinese Space Station Will Crash To Earth

In 2016, the Chinese space agency lost control of its Tiangong-1, or Heavenly Palace, spacecraft, five years after it blasted into orbit. Scientists have determined that it will come crashing down to Earth in the coming weeks, be they do not know exactly where on Earth it will hit. The Guardian reports: The defunct module is now at an altitude of 150 miles and being tracked by space agencies around the world, with the European Space Agency's center in Darmstadt predicting a fiery descent for it between March 27 and April 8. Hurtling around the Earth at about 18,000mph, the module ranks as one of the larger objects to re-enter the atmosphere without being steered towards the ocean, as is standard for big and broken spacecraft, and cargo vessels that are jettisoned from the International Space Station (ISS), to reduce the risk to life below. The spacecraft's orbit ranges from 43 degrees north to 43 degrees south, which rules out a descent over the UK but includes vast stretches of North and South America, China, the Middle East, Africa, Australia, parts of Europe -- and great swaths of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Western analysts cannot be sure how much of the spacecraft will survive re-entry, because China has not released details of the design and materials used to make Tiangong-1. But the spacecraft may have well-protected titanium fuel tanks containing toxic hydrazine that could pose a danger if they land in populated areas.

78 comments

  1. Obligatory Dead Like Me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny
    1. Re:Obligatory Dead Like Me by elrous0 · · Score: 1

      Lol, you beat me too it. Look out kids--cause no one wants to be known as that-person-who-got-killed-by-a-toilet-seat.

      --
      SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
    2. Re:Obligatory Dead Like Me by nospam007 · · Score: 2, Funny

      " Look out kids--cause no one wants to be known as that-person-who-got-killed-by-a-toilet-seat."

      Kids? I have an orange 72 year-old in mind.

    3. Re:Obligatory Dead Like Me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I would be quite pleased if it pulled off a 7-10 split and got the liar-in-chief and his second, wherever their respective locations may be at the time the satellite enters the atmosphere.

    4. Re:Obligatory Dead Like Me by grep+-v+'.*'+* · · Score: 0

      Kids? I have an orange 72 year-old in mind.

      I didn't know Hillary had died her hair. Or did you mean Bill?

      --
      If the universe is someone's simulation -- does that mean the stars are just stuck pixels?
    5. Re:Obligatory Dead Like Me by sacrabos · · Score: 1

      Come on. Elvis was only 42 when he died on a toilet seat, and he still had black hair.

  2. Good Hunch by mentil · · Score: 1

    It'll crash on the one that 'contributes' the least to certain Chinese officials.

    --
    Corruption is convincing someone that the selfless ideal is the same as their selfish ideal.
    1. Re:Good Hunch by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Space station" was all a ploy. There be nukes on board!

  3. George Lass by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is undead?

    And yeah, it was those dirty rushers.

  4. The region 43N to 43S by DrTJ · · Score: 4, Informative

    Places on the approximate 43N latitude include New York, Rome, Tblisi, Beijing, South Dakota/Nebraska border
    Places near 43S include Puerto Montt (southern/middle Chile), Tasmania, New Zealand. Pretty much everything is above 43S.

    1. Re:The region 43N to 43S by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Latitude 43 is just the northern and southern limit of the ground covered by this station. Everything in between is also included.

    2. Re:The region 43N to 43S by Hognoxious · · Score: 0

      I wonder if GP was going for a joke or whether he thought it was fluctuating between the two in some sort of quantum manner like electron shells in atoms.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    3. Re: The region 43N to 43S by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, he was just giving a more understandable description of where the latitudes are. I know where New York and New Zealand are in my head, but no idea where 43N and 43S are without looking on a map. I don't think he thought it would fall specifically one those lines only.

    4. Re: The region 43N to 43S by DrTJ · · Score: 1

      Well, that is kind of why I wrote 'the REGION' in the title...

    5. Re: The region 43N to 43S by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      That is how I took it as well.

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    6. Re:The region 43N to 43S by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dakota/Nebraska - well shiit boy the only way you will be able to tell the difference is it will raise the real estate value.

    7. Re:The region 43N to 43S by mikael · · Score: 1

      They are related now. By using perturbation theory to predict the motion of planets around stars, after some calculus integration, they recovered the Schrodinger equation. It's like having two sides of science separated by a fog cloud and suddenly finding the two connected. Then they find out that quantum size ball lightning is caused by Shankar skyrmions, which were a theoretical 3D topological shape of magnetic fields but now proved to be real.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    8. Re:The region 43N to 43S by Scarletdown · · Score: 1

      Fortunately, where I am at in Oregon is not too far south of the 45th Parallel. We should be safe here, unless their are massive cartoon physics caliber ricochets.

      --
      This space unintentionally left blank.
    9. Re:The region 43N to 43S by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      At what point should we just shoot down everything the Chinese try to put into space so that it crash lands on their shitty country before it turns into out of control debris landing on civilized nations?

  5. Satellite killer missiles by Hadlock · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Both the US and China have ground (or in our case Fighter Jet) launched systems capable of destroying a satellite. If it's re-entering in two weeks then it's destruction won't contribute to Kessler syndrome. I'm sure either county is just dying to exercise this system as it's been mostly dormant for the last year.

    --
    moox. for a new generation.
    1. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Both the US and China have ground (or in our case Fighter Jet) launched systems capable of destroying a satellite. If it's re-entering in two weeks then it's destruction won't contribute to Kessler syndrome. I'm sure either county is just dying to exercise this system as it's been mostly dormant for the last year.

       
      What if it crashes into Mecca, or the Vatican?
       
      Would that be taken as an omen?

    2. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Both the US and China have ground (or in our case Fighter Jet) launched systems capable of destroying a satellite.

      Why are those systems grounded when they're needed the most?

    3. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it crashed into both we should make an international Holiday out of it.

    4. Re: Satellite killer missiles by kurkosdr · · Score: 2

      Amen.

    5. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Junta · · Score: 1

      He said they have been dormant, because usually testing them creates problematic debris in orbit. He is proposing that as it descends further, it might be a chance to use them for something useful and also not have extra debris in orbit.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
    6. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Both the US and China have ground (or in our case Fighter Jet) launched systems capable of destroying a satellite. If it's re-entering in two weeks then it's destruction won't contribute to Kessler syndrome. I'm sure either county is just dying to exercise this system as it's been mostly dormant for the last year.

      In orbit destruction is just about the last thing you want to do.

      While space powers have the ability to destroy satellites, an operation that is pretty simple in fact, the very act makes a terrible mess, and a big satellite like the Chinese space station will make a hellava lot of debris.

      Getting enough of this debris in orbit will make the LEO neighborhood pretty much unusable, and enough of it will act as a barrier to anything trying to get through.

      There is a well known axiom that our first war in space will be our last one for a long time, until most of the debris de-orbits.

      Strategically the only real option is to let the thing de-orbit it self, and let the shit fall where it may.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    7. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      He said they have been dormant, because usually testing them creates problematic debris in orbit. He is proposing that as it descends further, it might be a chance to use them for something useful and also not have extra debris in orbit.

      That's kind of assuming that the satellite killers will be of much use. They aren't usually designed to make a direct hit, but even if they are, aren't going to take out the heavy stuff like fuel tanks.

      Now thaat being said, If I was affiliated with the chinese, I would approve of another country nailing the space station on the way down. That means that anything that lands on an unfortunate location has now become the responsibility of whoever blew it apart on the way down, and altered the trajectory of the debris.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    8. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Kuruk · · Score: 1

      Depending where it re-enters. Organizing a shooting gallery of multiple countries to play target practice is near impossible and to you did mess with the re-entry and someone is killed by what does hit the ground. Whos to blame.

    9. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Kuruk · · Score: 0

      Depending where it re-enters. Organizing a shooting gallery of multiple countries to play target practice is near impossible and if you did mess with the re-entry and someone is killed by what does hit the ground. Whos to blame.

    10. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It's in a low enough orbit now that the debris would not contribute to Kessler syndrome and just burn up in a couple of weeks, see GP

    11. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      I suppose it's asking too much for a fragment to take out Westboro.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    12. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hope it takes out a bunch of Socialists and Atheists

    13. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      How very christian of you.

    14. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Look up US193. I was there, worked on that weapon system. They probably have the ships ready for this one.

    15. Re:Satellite killer missiles by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      In orbit destruction is just about the last thing you want to do.

      While space powers have the ability to destroy satellites, an operation that is pretty simple in fact, the very act makes a terrible mess, and a big satellite like the Chinese space station will make a hellava lot of debris.

      Getting enough of this debris in orbit will make the LEO neighborhood pretty much unusable, and enough of it will act as a barrier to anything trying to get through.

      That depends on the altitude of the debris - and at 150 miles the average unboosted orbital lifetime is around 30 days. You'd have to seriously work at it to put (and keep) enough debris at that altitude to pose any significant risk.
       

      Strategically the only real option is to let the thing de-orbit it self, and let the shit fall where it may.

      While there's no particular reason to blow it up, concern over debris is no reason not to.

    16. Re:Satellite killer missiles by toddestan · · Score: 1

      You wouldn't have to worry about that. The debris would still be in a low earth orbit (or at the very least) an orbit that crosses its current orbit, so the debris would all come back down to Earth in short order.

      I'm assuming the main reason that shooting it down isn't being talked about is because if you hit it, the end result would be just breaking it apart, and the components that would survive re-entry would be not be broken up and thus would still survive re-entry. The only difference is that instead of coming down all at once with the debris confined to one area, instead you'd have debris coming down over a longer period of time, and hitting everywhere in the path. So they're probably going take the approx. 75% chance it'll just hit the ocean rather than the almost certain chance that if they break it up that some piece will come down on land.

    17. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      You wouldn't have to worry about that. The debris would still be in a low earth orbit (or at the very least) an orbit that crosses its current orbit, so the debris would all come back down to Earth in short order.

      I'm assuming the main reason that shooting it down isn't being talked about is because if you hit it, the end result would be just breaking it apart, and the components that would survive re-entry would be not be broken up and thus would still survive re-entry.

      One of the issues with destruction of an object like a space station is that we get particles moving in many directions at many speeds. Not only the space station, but what destroyed it. So some will be boosted higher in orbit a bit, some will be decelerated and enter thicker atmosphere and be destroyed or make it to earth sooner. Anyhow, I'm in agreement that a lot of debris is not going to be all that helpful and the safest bet is on it hitting water as is.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
  6. Not on my damn lawn by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I hope...

  7. In retrospect by Hal_Porter · · Score: 1

    Perhaps calling it "Heavenly Palace" was tempting fate.

    --
    echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
    1. Re:In retrospect by dwywit · · Score: 1

      It'll soon be all over the middle kingdom.

      Monkey, we need you!
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    2. Re:In retrospect by Hal_Porter · · Score: 1

      RIP Masako Natsume :-(

      --
      echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
  8. from china with pollution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    im sure they are just itching to pollute the rest of the world, as they have reached the limit of polluting their own country.

    1. Re:from china with pollution by Hal_Porter · · Score: 0

      Don't worry, if those red sons of bitches try to pollute America, President Trump will turn 'em into crispy critters!

      --
      echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
    2. Re: from china with pollution by kurkosdr · · Score: 0

      Being the ruthless accountants they are (because that's what the Chinese officials are first and foremost), they don't care about the externalities they create unless the costs are assigned to them. Hit them with an environmental tax on all their exports about all the space pollution they cause with this wretched space station and their antiSat tests, yesterday.

    3. Re:from china with pollution by Swave+An+deBwoner · · Score: 1

      And then eat them on a sesame seed bun with special sauce?

    4. Re: from china with pollution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hit the Yanks with a war tax too while you're at it. $X per civilian and 10 times replacement cost for any property damage aught to do it.

  9. Nothing like beginners by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I mean that. That wanted to catch up, only to show they haven't. With luck they wont kill anyone.

    1. Re:Nothing like beginners by arth1 · · Score: 1

      I mean that. That wanted to catch up, only to show they haven't. With luck they wont kill anyone.

      Not much luck needed. It's no more likely to kill anyone than any of the ~5-10[*] meteorite strikes that happen every year. Likely less, due to the much lower speed.

      [*] Actually, around 500 per year, but most of them are too small to be picked up by radar or found.

    2. Re:Nothing like beginners by mikael · · Score: 1

      Most of the station will burn up, but it's those spherical hydrazine fuel tanks which are the things that make it to the ground. Basically turning the planet into a giant wheel. I wonder if anyone is taking bets on the coordinates of those coordinates.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
  10. The Russians could help, I guess by bogaboga · · Score: 2

    it will come crashing down to Earth in the coming weeks, be they do not know exactly where on Earth it will hit.

    How about engaging those Russians to hit it out of the sky with one of their S-400/500 missile systems.

    With missiles that can fly at Mach 15 and a range of over 400Km, Russians should be able to help.

  11. Trojan Horse? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Wouldn't it be interesting if it turns out that the satellite is actually a test of the US response to "accidents" like it? There's no way to know, even if it is tumbling chaotically, if is or is not under control. Anything (larger than a couple of kg) is a threat if it's moving at 18,000 mph overhead.

  12. South China Spaceport? by MiniMike · · Score: 4, Funny

    When it crashes will the Chinese will plant a flag there, build an airstrip, and claim that the area had always been part of China's space program?

    1. Re:South China Spaceport? by PPH · · Score: 5, Funny

      No. But if it crashes in the USA, Trump will charge them a tariff for importing steel and aluminum.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    2. Re:South China Spaceport? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Was made in China, probably all plastic and low grade tin. But looks like American space station.

    3. Re:South China Spaceport? by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      And if it crashes in Australia they'll get issued a $400 fine for littering.
      http://mentalfloss.com/article...

    4. Re:South China Spaceport? by fox171171 · · Score: 1, Funny

      Or he'll deorbit the ISS onto them in retaliation. He's been wanting to get rid of it.

  13. What went wrong? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why is this happening?

  14. Why can't they predict its path? by Vegan+Cyclist · · Score: 1

    Sorry, in a rush and haven't RTFA, but given how we can track everything else in orbit, why is this one not possible? (Just wondering if they don't want to admit where they think it'll land..??)

    Also, even if the fuel tanks DIDN'T contain any "toxic hydrazine" don't they still "pose a danger"?

    This all sounds very irresponsible.

    1. Re:Why can't they predict its path? by hackertourist · · Score: 4, Informative

      We can track its orbit very well. The unknown is the amount of air resistance it encounters, i.e. how quickly its orbit will degrade. This resistance is highly variable (because the atmosphere expands and contracts e.g. in response to solar activity) and difficult to predict.

    2. Re:Why can't they predict its path? by neoRUR · · Score: 1

      They are tracking it, and it will break up and scatter all over the place, but they don't know what it's made of, China has not released the design, so they don't know what will survive and make it to the ground, there are apparently some titanium tanks that might make it back. Either way look to the sky after March 27th.

    3. Re:Why can't they predict its path? by rkordmaa · · Score: 1

      To predict where it will crash you have to predict exactly when it will crash, as the thing is going 7.5km/s tiny error in timing will result in large error in location. If you can't predict the crash time more accurately than one orbit, that is 90mins, then you essentially have no idea where it will crash. Predictions will get more accurate as time passes, but few weeks before the event the margin of error is just too large. To make it more difficult it's tumbling, meaning that it's ballistic coefficient is changing all the time, couple that with lack of prediction for near space weather and there you have it, all you can do is shrug when someone asks where it will crash.

    4. Re:Why can't they predict its path? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > This all sounds very irresponsible.
      That's just media hype. It's no more of a risk than anything else that gets sent into low-earth orbit. It's all going to come down eventually, and you can never guarantee that a particular re-entry will be controlled.

      Fortunately, Earth is incredibly sparsely populated. Two thirds of it is water, and most of the land is just desert, jungle or empty fields.

  15. My bet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is that it will hit the atmosphere first, and then the surface.

    1. Re: My bet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Amazing! You must be clairvoyant.

  16. A true business opportunity by bobstreo · · Score: 1

    Charge the Chinese to salvage it. Create a space hotel.

    Elon? Are you listening?

    The biggest cost of space travel is getting things off the surface. Worst case you move it out to high orbit and scrap it for materials.

  17. Pollution and Endangerment by PeteJanda · · Score: 1

    The Chinese aren't concerned with polluting and possibly endangering inhabited swathes of the planet? I'm shocked - shocked - to find such sentiment!

  18. Now THIS... by SuperKendall · · Score: 0

    ...Is a real example of man-made global warming.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  19. Consider the Painfully Obvious by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

    Yes.

  20. Re: You're a cunt by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Nobody reads the title, n00b.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  21. No AmiMoJo post? by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    No AmiMoJo post about how it's still 47 million times better than any station made by white people ever?

    That's what he did when their train derailed and the first thing they did was to bury the wreckage because avoiding embarrassment for those who caused it was more important than looking for survivors.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    1. Re:No AmiMoJo post? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well one day, lol, and a hundred billion dollars later, lol, when the US finally even gets a high speed train. Let's see how well it goes.

  22. Just after re-entry by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    A kiwi has his pants down and is facing his wooley partner when she is beheaded by a piece of the falling station.
    Bugger Me! he exclaims

    1. Re:Just after re-entry by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Article about space junk and you just had to bring sheep F%^&*king into it didn't you.

  23. Crashing? by PCM2 · · Score: 1

    Nuke it from the surface! It's the only way to be sure.

    --
    Breakfast served all day!
  24. It's all a scam! by martinfb · · Score: 1

    This is a plan by the Chinese to bomb a country!

    Why else would they not cooperate w/ the world to determine where it would likely land?!

    --


    Self-importance and self-indulgence is the root of ALL evil.