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AI Will Wipe Out Half the Banking Jobs In a Decade, Experts Say
Experts in the industry say that current advances in artificial intelligence and automation could replace as many as half the nation's financial services workers over the next decade, though it will take a big investment to make that happen. The Mercury News reports: "Unless banks deal with the performance issues that AI will cause for ultra-large databases, they will not be able to take the money gained by eliminating positions and spend it on the new services and products they will need in order to stay competitive," James D'Arezzo, CEO of Glendale-based Condusiv Technologies, said. Intensive hardware upgrades are often cited as an answer to the problem, but D'Arezzo said that's prohibitively expensive.
Speaking to an audience last year in Frankfurt, Germany, Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan predicted a "bonfire" of industry jobs as automation moves forward. "In our bank we have people doing work like robots," he said. "Tomorrow we will have robots behaving like people. It doesn't matter if we as a bank will participate in these changes or not, it is going to happen." Increased processing power, cloud storage and other developments are making many tasks possible that once were considered too complex for automation, according to Cryan. D'Arezzo, whose company works to improve existing software performance, said the financial industry is being swamped by "a tsunami of data," including new compliance requirements for customer privacy and constantly changing bank regulations. Bhagwan Chowdhry, a professor of finance and economics at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, offers a less bleak view of the future. "Technology will eliminate some jobs that are repetitive and require less human judgment," he said, "But I think they will get replaced by other jobs that humans are better at. Anything that requires judgment is something humans will continue to do. We are not good at multiplying 16-digit numbers, but we're good at judging people and detecting if someone is telling the truth."
Speaking to an audience last year in Frankfurt, Germany, Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan predicted a "bonfire" of industry jobs as automation moves forward. "In our bank we have people doing work like robots," he said. "Tomorrow we will have robots behaving like people. It doesn't matter if we as a bank will participate in these changes or not, it is going to happen." Increased processing power, cloud storage and other developments are making many tasks possible that once were considered too complex for automation, according to Cryan. D'Arezzo, whose company works to improve existing software performance, said the financial industry is being swamped by "a tsunami of data," including new compliance requirements for customer privacy and constantly changing bank regulations. Bhagwan Chowdhry, a professor of finance and economics at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, offers a less bleak view of the future. "Technology will eliminate some jobs that are repetitive and require less human judgment," he said, "But I think they will get replaced by other jobs that humans are better at. Anything that requires judgment is something humans will continue to do. We are not good at multiplying 16-digit numbers, but we're good at judging people and detecting if someone is telling the truth."
Who is Al, and why should I be afraid of him?
There was a study about how well people know if their own kids or unknown kids are telling the truth. Result was about 50% which is about as good as random.
People are not good at anything. Some individuals perhaps are but even that is rare.
Otherwise it will never figure out how to access the data.
Yes computers will make more trades and replace some workers in the financial arena, but its not AI, its still good expert systems.
We used to have editors that knew some tech stuff and wouldn't just spam clickbait all the time.
I've been a customer of NCNB which later became Bank of America for over forty-five years, and they just keep creating policies that require more employees. For example, I used their bill pay to transfer money to another BoA account for over a decade but since then they've discontinued that I have to go to a branch and get a teller every month to pay my rent. Also, I used to transfer money to several friends that have BoA accounts, but they since discontinued that feature since they require a credit card to sign-up for "SafePass" and they canceled my credit card due to the fact I didn't use it enough. So now rather than just being able to transfer the money online, I have to go to one of their branches and deal with a bank teller. I really miss being able to use my iPhone to transfer money, for example, to pay back a friend when they pay for a meal with their credit card. BoA just keeps creating more work for their tellers.
how to embezzle, make predatory mortgage loans, and to utilize the stock market to make high frequency trades to conceal their loses,
Maybe evicting some single mothers and shutting down some orphanages would also be in order. /s?
we're good at judging people and detecting if someone is telling the truth.
Hahaha, no. Experienced detectives trying to tell if someone is lying in response to a yes/no question, using their gut instincts, do no better than a coin flip. Also, remember this story posted just a few days ago: multiple forged signatures, and no investigation done before $Millions were already forked over to the scammers. Think about all the stories of scammers who use social engineering to convince corporate officers to wire them $Millions. OTOH, AI (ok, algorithms) has been used in automated fraud detection systems for decades.
Besides, technology being ABLE to replace half of workers is very different from those workers actually being replaced. Many banks are led by conservatives, and won't rush out to replace half their workforce; they'll slooowwwwllllyyy roll it out in test markets for a decade first, maybe waiting for several competitors to announce plans to do so first. Remember how long it took to roll out EMV in the USA? We didn't even get 'chip & PIN', just 'chip & signature'... oh and they got rid of the signature requirement so it's just 'chip' now.
Corruption is convincing someone that the selfless ideal is the same as their selfish ideal.
For someone who works in a LARGE bank. Let me just say this
BWAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaHAHAHAHAHA.
The one I work at is using software that EOL'd 5 years ago. This is a mainline program. They are just starting to replace it. There are thousands of programs like that. The supposition here is new unveted software is going to replace everyone. The banking industry lives and breaths microsoft excel. All of their internal software imitates that program in some way.
HAHA my catcpa is tableau
The introduction of Automatic Teller Machines led to an increase in human tellers, as well as business.
davecb@spamcop.net
Bhagwan Chowdhry, [snip] Anything that requires judgment is something humans will continue to do.
He is so wrong. The people owning the AIs won't care about careful or correct judgement - it won't affect them; c.f. the RoboDebt scandal in Australia (an automated mailing of demand notices to welfare recipients where the algorithm was wrong and the notices weren't vetted before dispatch)
... working on the fucking AI shit.
It little behooves the best of us to comment on the rest of us.
Their quality of life shall improve... even if laying on a beach broke somewhere.... They will be happier, even if they dont it yet.
[($)]
AI has the potential to make the dishonest and sleazy practices that led to the Great Recession of 2008 look bush-league, bring about a worldwide economic crisis the likes of which has never been seen - and yet still make the banksters rich beyond the dreams of avarice.
"...we're good at judging people and detecting if someone is telling the truth."
No we're not. How do you think so many scammers, con-artists, and ponzy-schemes do so well? It's precisely because we're so bad at judging people and detecting if someone is telling the truth.
Debate is a form of harassment. Do not question my truth.
Rod Sterling saw this in a different form half a century ago.
Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
shifting nearly all tech work overseas in less than 10 years. I watched it happen overnight. I lived through it (and the constant layoffs). Banking executives are only "conservative" in the sense they don't like paying taxes. They're plenty progressive when it comes to saving money. Remember, we've structured their pay around stock price, and the best way to raise stock price is to have fewer employees. That's why everytime the economy tanks there's mass layoffs to bump the stock. This'll be the same thing, only this time the jobs aren't going overseas, they're just gone.
/.er posting on a Friday night, so you can bet I don't have kids). So what do I care?
We're about to head into another industrial revolution. The last few had decades of unemployment, wars and social strife before tech (and the New Deal) caught up and people were employed again. If you're going to do something to avert the next upheaval now's the time to start voting people into office that'll address the problem with something other than more "conservative" tax cuts for bank executives.
Or don't. I'm getting up there in the years and won't make it past 55 with my health problems (and I'm a
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I work in a credit union. 90% of our jobs are customer facing for people who want to talk with a human instead of using the website or an ATM. There is very little back office. You have loan underwriters, title clerk's, IT, mail, and accounting. All small departments. Big stuff are call centers, tellers, FSRs, etc...
Unless banks deal with the performance issues that AI will cause for ultra-large databases, they will not be able to take the money gained by eliminating positions and spend it on the new services and products they will need in order to stay competitive. . . . Intensive hardware upgrades are often cited as an answer to the problem, but D'Arezzo said that's prohibitively expensive
So banks will switch to AI for all the savings, but there won't be any savings? Then why switch to AI? And if there are savings from switching to AI, then what's the problem? What is this actually saying?
Maybe I can setup an AI that can post AI articles: "Most jobs in the ----- sector will be eliminated in the next 10 years according to AI experts. Companies in the ----- sector must be ready to innovate or they will get left behind. Workers will also need to retrain or be left in the lurch."
German...old fashioned, still use typewriters and paper forms?
Like this guy?
Ezekiel 23:20
Academics don't seem to know much either. From TFS: "we're good at judging people and detecting if someone is telling the truth"
Actually, this is something that humans are notoriously bad at. Deep neural networks already exceed human ability to recognize liars, by detecting microexpressions correlated with lying.
they're all over blockchain and their executives sit on the board of directors of major Wallstreet companies that live by High Frequency Trading (which, rather annoyingly, is a modern marvel of engineering). They've long since learned that tech good. They don't understand it (they're really just members of the ruling class like kings of old) but that doesn't mean they don't know it's valuable. Just like kings knew metal weapons & armor were valuable.
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Experts say experts are shitty at predicting the future.
Table-ized A.I.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
Will it not wipe out the bankers? One can only hope.
But an AI may not be able to embrace a new realm of new business opportunities.
Humans have the ability to take risks and even though not all risks are worth taking you have to also realize that some risks can lead to great profit and progress. If nobody was willing to take risks then we wouldn't have gone to the Moon, crossed the Atlantic or even left Africa.
If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
Deutsche Bank will be wiped away by the next forthcoming derivative crisis, well before they can ever set up an AI system to replace financial workers.
I've met bankers with a salary less than a dump truck driver. Once the bots have all the corners of beancounting squared away there is no need to keep an expensive suit around. Same with lawyers. I know of quite a few that barely get by.
I see the same in our space. The classic Type A software developer is on the way out. It's developer+key-account-manager+devops/admin these days. That's what I'm doing right now. Part time. With a salary that's still enough to live and more responsibility than ever. And still it's also easyer and more fun than ever.
One company I regularly visit on meetups is so agile they basically have everyone doing everything at some point in time.
Thus is the new age of bots and abundance. Get used to it. It's going to be for the better. Eventually that is.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
Will collecting more information simply create white noise that will drawn AI-bots pretty soon?
I know this might be seen as trolling but I see banking as the root of much of the world's problems. So, an out of work banker might not be such a bad thing after all. Banks do all sorts of slimy shit in the name of making money.
First the lawyers and now the bankers? Artificial intelligence is ruining our world.
No, we really aren't. In fact, we're quite bad at this.
i doubt it will take that...long...
Remember the recent Wells Fargo crimes of fraud and gouging of clients w/ loans.
Now, imagine WF getting away with it in the future via blaming an error in the AI system.
We, the people still loose. WF gets away with it.
It seems a major no-brainer to have severe regulations on ANY AI being developed.
Self-importance and self-indulgence is the root of ALL evil.
...will be COBOL programmers.