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Cost To Build a Tesla Model 3 Is $28,000, German Engineers Say (www.wiwo.de)
Rei writes: An interesting report came out the other day from Germany, where an engineering firm purchased four Tesla Model 3s on the grey market to study on behalf of an anonymous major German auto manufacturer. Among their key findings: due in part to a huge reduction in cobalt in the batteries (2.8% in the cathodes versus a typical 8%) and a number of simplifications, the parts cost of a Model 3 (in units of 10,000 vehicles per week) is estimated at $18,000, along with $10,000 in production costs. Note that the teardown was for the long-range version with the premium upgrades package.
On Reddit, users with access to the full report added further details. The 75kWh battery is 40% of the components cost ($7,200); the interior is completely symmetric (facilitating RHD); there are only 4 kinds of screws used in the underbody (a typical German luxury manufacturer uses 40); many parts of the car are designed specifically so as to be easier for robots to grab; and the battery pack is harder to remove than on the S/X (e.g. not battery swap capable). After studying the individual components, they concluded that German EV manufacturers would not be capable of producing a similar vehicle at this point in time. Asked on Twitter whether Musk agreed with their price conclusions at a rate of 10,000 vehicles per week, Musk replied: "Definitely." That said, Tesla is still in the process of moving from 3,500 to 5,000-6,000 per week by the end of this quarter, and is not expected to reach 10,000 vehicles per week until next year.
On Reddit, users with access to the full report added further details. The 75kWh battery is 40% of the components cost ($7,200); the interior is completely symmetric (facilitating RHD); there are only 4 kinds of screws used in the underbody (a typical German luxury manufacturer uses 40); many parts of the car are designed specifically so as to be easier for robots to grab; and the battery pack is harder to remove than on the S/X (e.g. not battery swap capable). After studying the individual components, they concluded that German EV manufacturers would not be capable of producing a similar vehicle at this point in time. Asked on Twitter whether Musk agreed with their price conclusions at a rate of 10,000 vehicles per week, Musk replied: "Definitely." That said, Tesla is still in the process of moving from 3,500 to 5,000-6,000 per week by the end of this quarter, and is not expected to reach 10,000 vehicles per week until next year.
So a German engineering firm says that it only costs 28,000 to make a Tasla Model 3 but that German EV companies are not capable of producing a similar vehicle at this time. Does that mean that their German cars cost less then $28,000 to make? Otherwise they'd be foolish not to try and compete.
That's huge. Last weekend I helped a friend replace the motor in his 1993 Toyota, and IIRC there were 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 19, and 21 mm bolts plus several different other Phillips screw sizes. Better than GM which my friend had to buy several sizes of Torx drivers or my other friend that has a Harley we replaced a clutch on that needed a couple of exotic Torx drivers that we couldn't find locally. T25 was too loose and T27 wouldn't fit in one of the bolts. He also replaced one of the heads on it, and the special Torx driver from Snapon was more expensive than he paid for the used head!
anyone can lose money...otoh tesla may break some molds and make money at some point
nothing to see here - move along
If the components are $18,000, labor is $10,000, and factory depreciation is $10,000 [1], then Tesla should have been making a profit on those $70,000 premium Model 3 sales, but somehow that's not reflected in their Q1 report.
So either the Germans are able to get much cheaper materials and labor than Tesla, or this is just a FUD piece. Since it's written by an actor, sources anonymous German engineers, and has a paywall for the full article, I'm leaning towards the latter.
[1] A $5 billion Gigafactory on a very aggressive depreciation schedule (double declining balance with a useful life of 10 years) would be $1 billion for the first year, which would add about $10,000 to the cost of each vehicle if they make 2k vehicles / week.
the model 3 does not sale for anywhere near 80k, it starts at 35k and the top end long range is like 44k, note the 44k module is the one that costs 28k to make, so about 16k profit.
When you cant win, ad hominem.
the 28k component price was for the long range model that is 44k.
When you cant win, ad hominem.
Consider the "component" cost of the tesla. Well that's to purchase the components. But of course those "components" were someone elses product and they in turn had component costs and production costs for that. And so on all the way down to "ore" and water before they are even taken out of the earth.
SO if you really stated the "component" cost versus production cost I think you might find it's almost all production cost.
Now imagine what happens when we make robots that can make custom manucaturing robots.
Then there's no production costs. (the robots make robots that mine and refine the ore to make more robots.)
Suddenly EVERYTHING is cheap. Rediculously cheap.
Yes were a long way from that. But not so far in the grand scheme. Maybe four or five generations. Then it's all free.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
there are only 4 kinds of screws used in the underbody (a typical German luxury manufacturer uses 40); many parts of the car are designed specifically so as to be easier for robots to grab; and the battery pack is harder to remove than on the S/X (e.g. not battery swap capable).
The screw thing is awesome. As someone who has done a transmission swap on an Audi A8, I can tell you that it is a truly massive improvement for the technician.
When robots install parts, they are always designed to be installed by robots. That's how it's done.
The battery pack on the Model S was installed partially with adhesives, so....
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Of course, you cannot actually buy those $35K to $44K vehicles right now. However, I can go buy a Nissan or VW EV for $31K right now.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
the model 3 does not sale for anywhere near 80k, it starts at 35k and the top end long range is like 44k, note the 44k module is the one that costs 28k to make, so about 16k profit.
You should check those numbers again. The Model 3 price goes up way higher than whatever you just pulled out of your ass. The top end is about $86k.
Yes.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/21/17376136/tesla-performance-model-3-specs-price-base-model
All those numbers are pretty meaningless if you don't include the cost of the final product to consumers.
systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
The electric motors are as efficient as all hell, but the charging engine burns coal.
I incorporated programming and testing a logic circuit implemented on an FPGA into a lab course. To motivate including this in the lab to the students, I had them do a comparison with the complexity of wiring 7400-series logic to do the same hardware function. The lab manual was revised to ask them to time themselves doing the wiring manually using a Protoboard.
TAs taught the lab sections, but I was required to attend lab sections to supply mandatory evaluations of the TAs. Sitting in on one such lab section, I overheard one of the students exercising leadership of his group by calling out, "Take whatever measurement of time we get and double it!"
I had thought that this element of the lab that I had added was make-work that the students would consider to be lame. But here was one student exercising influence over his peer lab partners, and this man with one statement understood more about engineering practice than anything I taught in lecture section with formulas and circuit diagrams. This student "got" what I was after with the time-to-build exercise.
It was just so satisfying to hear that.
This could be the reason why "Tesla is still in the process of moving from 3,500 to 5,000-6,000 per week by the end of this quarter".
Basically they might be stockpiling cars until after the next quarter starts (July) so that the maximum number of buyers can take advantage of the full tax credit.
Nissan has Bolts on their books for $31K, but if you walk into a dealer anywhere but California, you'll be given reasons why you shouldn't consider a Bolt, followed by reasons why you cannot. In California, you'll be able to get one only if Nissan hasn't yet reached some legislated environmental quotas.
If those state laws are done away with, expect the Bolt to disappear entirely.
VW might produce enough EVs to fulfill their obligations under repatriations for dieselgate, but expect them to try to convince legislators that the reason they haven't sold enough is that their customers don't want them.
Here's a hint - if you ever hear a car company or salesman talking about how this car will probably be OK for your daily commute, they aren't trying to sell you that car. Talking about your daily commute is to make you bored with the vehicle, so they can then make you excited about the car they want to sell.
Prediction for end of Universe #42: Fencepost error in Quantum_bogosort.cpp
In different places, different amounts of the power are generated from renewable or nuclear sources, right up to 100%. And as the grid becomes cleaner, so will all electric cars.
And even if the electricity supply is mostly coal, a large coal-fired plant is much, much cleaner than any car's internal combustion engine.
Prediction for end of Universe #42: Fencepost error in Quantum_bogosort.cpp
That is a 20% margin BEFORE the rest of the costs WHEN they are finally at 10k units per week. that means if they were churning out the 35k model now they would be taking a sizable loss.
That would mean the battery in the Model S cost $80,000. Not likely.
a) Apple is one of the most valuable companies in the world.
b) Tesla's cars simply don't wear out like mechanical cars do.
https://www.greencarreports.co...
c) Stick to your horse and cart if you want. Elon Musk won't lose any sleep over it.
No sig today...
There's nothing at all "misleading" about starting a production-limited vehicle with the more premium versions and working down from there as production ramps up. Lots of manufacturers do this. Jaguar won't be offering their base i-Pace for a year after the heavily-optioned-out version is on sale.
It's only where you're demand limited that you have to get the cheapest versions out immediately.
As for the demand for the base battery, according to polls on the Tesla forums, only about a third of reservation holders want it. And there's no confusion about the tax credit; the fact that Tesla would be running up against the start of the phaseout (which is a long process) has been widely known and discussed from the beginning.
Jesus: "Son of a
If by "rest of the costs" you mean R&D and SG&A, yes, but "no duh" to that. ;) (Also worth noting: they were tearing down a Model 3 LR with PUP, not a base model)
Ford's average vehicle margin is 10%. Now, Tesla's structure means they need a higher margin (as they own all of their own stores and service centres), but "greater than 20%" is more than a healthy margin. And that's with no options (which are overwhelmingly profit).
Jesus: "Son of a
The $10k is not "labour", it's "production costs", which includes tooling depreciation.
And FYI, but a normal automotive margin is around 10%.
Jesus: "Son of a
No, more like $200/kWh.
Jesus: "Son of a
That was eons ago. Time to move on and focus on the gazillion Trump failures.
That's not the gross margin. Gross margin is just (revenue - COGS) / revenue. If you're including R&D, SG&A, etc, you're thinking of the profit margin, which is around 4%.
(ED: turns out the gross margin is was a bit higher than I remembered, 14,76% last quarter. But still nothing spectacular)
Jesus: "Son of a
Nope. You can't buy a base ($35k) model at this time and probably not for another 12 months.
The minimum price for a Model 3 is currently $49k, plus $1k for delivery (everywhere in the USA, including Fremont). You can add about $10k to that price today, if you add all the Autopilot options and the larger (and less efficient) wheels, so it maxes out at about $60k today.
Dual motors and performance options are coming and will increase the maximum possible price.
The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
$49k.
Today, you have to buy the Premium Upgrade package, which is another $5k.
The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
Normal automive margins are 10% on a complete vehicle but most carmakers are in the business of selling finance and/or car parts.
Hit submit too soon....
By that comment I mean that the car is simply to get you in the door. They make money on interest payments and servicing.