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Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem (seekingalpha.com)

Reports out of Taiwan now suggest that Nvidia has a gaming GPU inventory problem. An anonymous reader writes: Tech news site SemiAccurate which covers the GPU space pretty closely, and has broken stories like AMD's acquisition of ATI Technologies and Nvidia's Bumpgate, just published an article on why Nvidia has delayed their new gaming GPUs. It seems the Hot Chips 30 agenda cancellation and Jensen's no new GPUs for 'a long time' comment have created enough of a stir to get journalists and industry insiders asking questions. While curiosity amongst all this confusion is natural, I was surprised to discover that people were starting to speculate Nvidia's delay was due to technical issues with their new GPUs. This had never been a concern of mine, and as it turns out, it's clearly not the case. So, what the problem? Nvidia has overestimated pent-up gaming demand and underestimated the impact of declining mining demand.

83 comments

  1. I will take some off there hands for free! by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 4, Funny

    I will take some off there hands for free!.

    1. Re:I will take some off there hands for free! by TexasDiaz · · Score: 1

      I will take some off their hands for reasonable prices! The recent surge in Bitcoin (and digital currency) mining has made buying a video card outrageous, and prices haven't come down. Right now I'm literally paying my kingdom for a gaming video card. I just want one for a reasonable price, I don't necessarily feel like I need one for free.

    2. Re: I will take some off there hands for free! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      literally

      No.

  2. get some priorities, folks! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The fucking SCOTUS just approved state sales tax for online purchases. The "Physical Nexus" standard is dead.

    1. Re:get some priorities, folks! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You were always supposed to pay that tax, it's just that businesses weren't required to collect it. People were supposed to keep records on their spending and submit that to the state.

      Which was really fucking stupid. Why on earth should citizens keep tabs of that in order to figure out how much more money they get to give to the government? That's a substantial amount of effort, especially given that there's been no reporting requirements for those businesses.

    2. Re:get some priorities, folks! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A lot of larger online businesses that didn't charge tax would at least give their customers a yearly breakdown of what they owed. Amazon used to e-mail me a yearly receipt with tax info before they started charging me taxes on purchases.

  3. Hard to decipher what the story is... by Fly+Swatter · · Score: 2

    But if the problem is excess inventory they have to sell near a loss, well that's what you get for creating a false supply shortage to drive up prices.

    1. Re:Hard to decipher what the story is... by EvilSS · · Score: 5, Insightful

      But if the problem is excess inventory they have to sell near a loss, well that's what you get for creating a false supply shortage to drive up prices.

      or they just don't release the new chips because AMD can't get their shit together on the GPU side, and sell off the inventory at normal prices.

      --
      I browse on +1 so AC's need not respond, I won't see it.
    2. Re:Hard to decipher what the story is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There may also be the problem of lengthening release cycles of AAA games that are ever more expensive to produce, inflated RAM prices that delay system upgrades and so lessen any associated GPU demand. Still, a 40% price inflation in Nvidia products alone is enough to give a second though for any young gamers who wants to spend their money on new games that are also more expensive than before. Meanwhile the miners brag how they scored another five cards with those prices.

    3. Re:Hard to decipher what the story is... by Mashiki · · Score: 2

      They have excess inventory because the bottom fell out of the mining game with lenders no longer giving money out for people to build the machines. Once that happened, they were stuck with inventory that is going no where because they didn't see the market trend.

      The upside is that this will drive the costs of cards way down, and since they massively missed the market it'll be a good chance to get a card if you're using an older one.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    4. Re: Hard to decipher what the story is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think youâ(TM)ve got that backwards. Theyâ(TM)ve got an excess of the mining variant cards that you wonâ(TM)t want in a home PC and no gaming inventory, so demand stays high ergo higher prices.

    5. Re: Hard to decipher what the story is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Got a source for that speculation? The articles say GPUs, not boards, so I presume they aren't installed on boards yet. Even if they were, there are hardware mods to convert mining cards to similar equivalent mining cards for $15 plus labor, so I'd be willing to bet Nvidia could mod them internally for much cheaper if need be.

  4. No story by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That is not a story. It does not contain enough information even for a headline.

  5. the jokes on you by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We beat the deadline for tarriffs. At 25% it's cheaper for us to warehouse chips now than import later.

  6. price fixing. by Killall+-9+Bash · · Score: 3, Informative

    GPU prices have not dropped in the last few months, despite drop in demand, and oversupply.

    --
    "Prediction: within 10 years, Windows will be a Linux distribution." Me, 7-6-2016
    1. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The 1080 Ti's can be had at MSRP again. So some of them have dropped.

    2. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Price fixing requiries collusion between "competitors." Who, exactly, is Nvidia doing that with?

    3. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Price fixing is a technical term that has a specific meaning. What we have now is the realization by the two members of the duopoly that neither of them will benefit from lowering prices, so why would they? Competition is a great thing, two players is not enough. That is why I am actually glad Intel is moving into the GFX card space. They saw that the Duopoly is producing excess profits, so they want their slice. Good for them, and good for us.

    4. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      price fixing only requires collusion when there _is_ a competitor.

    5. Re:price fixing. by Whorhay · · Score: 2

      Every time I see an article talking about how the prices are coming down I go and look, and surprise everything is still really expensive. For instance only a few sketchy places are advertising new 1080's for under the MSRP that was listed a year ago.

    6. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814125880

      Below MSRP which is 549 for a FE card straight from NVidia. So they do exist.

    7. Re:price fixing. by ranton · · Score: 1

      price fixing only requires collusion when there _is_ a competitor.

      No, it price fixing still requires collusion even if there are no competitors. Otherwise it is just price setting.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    8. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not what monitoring the forums at Slickdeals says. A MSI GeForce GTX 1070 Ti ARMOR that launched at $449 is now available for $393 after rebate.

    9. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      how much of a rebate? and they should ALL be lower than MSRP if there is a supply overload and lowered demand.

    10. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      its almost 2 years old, let me just shit my pants that its now at 2016 MSRP

    11. Re: price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      LOL. This.

    12. Re:price fixing. by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      GPU prices have not dropped in the last few months, despite drop in demand, and oversupply.

      You mean you haven't looked. There were only stories out 2 weeks ago about a fresh round of price cuts with several cards back down at their MSRP.

      Here you go: https://www.newegg.com/Product... shop away. The price is right where it should be.

    13. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not sure you know what price fixing is, nVidia selling their product for a fixed price and not dropping it is not what is known as "price fixing".

    14. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're lucky over there. Here I have to pay 24% tax on top of the inflation, so an something like ASUS STRIX GTX1060 costs $463 and DUAL RX580 $492. ASUS do charge more for the additional graphics memory compared to most other manufacturers.

    15. Re:price fixing. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      GTX1080 Ti was released March 10, 2017. That's closer to 1 year old.

  7. So just wait for the low prices then. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Will do!!

  8. In simple terms by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Cryptomining is (hopefully) dead and now everybody is selling off their old GPUs. Nobody wants to buy new ones since the used market is flooded.

    NVIDIA can't sell their new line since the market is so flooded with old stuff that works okay.

    1. Re:In simple terms by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "works okay" by okay you really meant to say works outstanding and gives no one but the obsessive types more then enough GPU for their gaming needs.

    2. Re:In simple terms by Luckyo · · Score: 1

      It isn't dead yet. There's a slowdown in sales because everyone who was mining ethereum and its derivatives is now waiting for bitmain to spin up production to meet new demand. So no new buys, as difficulty is expected to rise soon with massive influx of ASICs.

      But if people have the hardware running, my understanding is that difficulty isn't yet up to the point where it wouldn't make sense to mine (expecting price to rise in the future, as much of ethereum mining was making loss at the moment of being mined).

    3. Re:In simple terms by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cryptomining is (hopefully) dead and now everybody is selling off their old GPUs. Nobody wants to buy new ones since the used market is flooded.

      NVIDIA can't sell their new line since the market is so flooded with old stuff that works okay.

      WRONG:L from tfa" The interesting part here is that this has happened simply with mining demand tapering off and not because of some Ethereum-related flood of GPUs on the second-hand market. "

  9. Still too expensive by ruddk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So lower the price. The cheapest 1080 gtx I can find right now, is still $100 higher than what I paid last summer.

    1. Re:Still too expensive by Kulahan · · Score: 2

      I can assure you they promised certain profits to their shareholders which they cannot possibly meet at lower prices, so they're instead trying to drive up demand by promising the current available GPU is the best you can get for years to come.

    2. Re:Still too expensive by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I can assure you they promised certain profits to their shareholders which they cannot possibly meet at lower prices, so they're instead trying to drive up demand by promising the current available GPU is the best you can get for years to come.

      Too bad for them it doesn't really work that way.

      They'll be forced to lower prices eventually, unless they plan on burying GPUs in the desert.

    3. Re:Still too expensive by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      so they're instead trying to drive up demand by promising the current available GPU is the best you can get for years to come.

      Don't be an idiot, nobody ever said "for years to come". They said it will be a long time, in the tech world 6 months is a long time and if they don't have anything significant to release then why release something new at all? You'll just end up with people whining that the new product isn't enough of a significant difference.

    4. Re:Still too expensive by dohzer · · Score: 1

      Ahahahahahahahahaahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah. "Just make them cheaper". Nice one! Classic joke.

    5. Re:Still too expensive by Cederic · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't necessarily help. Everybody now knows that they have the next generation of chips ready to roll and they're only delaying them to clear out the existing stock of older chips.

      So may as well wait a bit and get a new generation chip that'll be faster than the one you can buy now.

      The only thing a change in price will achieve is potentially selling the top end cards to the midrange market, which would itself cause a delay in their future upgrade cycle and damage longer term earnings.

      Me, I'm happy to wait. Nothing on the market is good enough yet for 4K gaming and my two year old card is still perfectly capable of running new releases at top quality at 1440p.

    6. Re: Still too expensive by Arunex · · Score: 1

      a long time concerning a product release means at least a year to me. if it's less than that, he was lying

  10. Dear AMD, your chance to move is now. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Don't fuck it up, please.

    And watch out for those "technically legal" or merely hard to prove criminal Intel moves.

    Also, Intel coming out with a new GPU something that is supposed to be proper GPU ... And nVidia having big problems. ... We need to look into this a bit deeper too.

    (I'm not a fanboy of anyone. Despise all humans equally. Not hate though. They aren't worth that much of my mind.)

  11. full disclosure, at the very end by pjrc · · Score: 4, Informative

    The author admits he has shorted nVidia's stock at the very end of the article, on the 3rd page.

    1. Re:full disclosure, at the very end by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Surprised they even admitted it -- but there it is. "Let me publish some speculation to further my own financial gain."

    2. Re:full disclosure, at the very end by Luckyo · · Score: 1

      Key part seems to be confirmable by other parties - that being nvidia being forced to accept hundreds of thousands of GPUs from Taiwanese OEMs.

    3. Re:full disclosure, at the very end by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 0

      The week Taser went public, suddenly there were news articles about how tasers could kill.

      Somebody was up to something. Always follow the money.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    4. Re:full disclosure, at the very end by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It's legally required. If you own stock in a company you're writing about, it has to be declared. Otherwise, you may be on the hook for stock manipulation.

    5. Re:full disclosure, at the very end by radarskiy · · Score: 1

      It's never really about ethics in financial journalism.

  12. A whole lot of factors by PhrostyMcByte · · Score: 2

    The mining causing prices to skyrocket also had the effect of making gamers not upgrade their GPUs, and now that the current lineup is old they will probably be waiting for the next version to come out.

    You also have godlike 4K HDR10 144Hz monitors that are about to start shipping, and no current GPU can handle that even on a lot of simpler titles. So people may be waiting to upgrade to something that can handle that.

    The altcoin mining craze seems to finally be dying down and prices are returning to normal, but it's too late. If gamers aren't crazy for these GPUs anymore, and miners aren't buying them either, it seems plausible that they'd have a lot of unsold inventory lying around.

    1. Re:A whole lot of factors by eth1 · · Score: 2

      ...and now that the current lineup is old they will probably be waiting for the next version to come out.

      Definitely this... I just built a new gaming rig two weeks ago, and swapped my 3-year-old 970 GTX into the new system. Nothing available right now is a sensible upgrade for the price, and the coy comments about a new GPU might as well have been, "You'd be an idiot to buy the current gen right now. We have new stuff, but it won't be available until we sell the old inventory to suckers."

      I know a few others doing the same. They really want to upgrade, but they're not going to buy the current gen, because it's too old now.

    2. Re:A whole lot of factors by Luckyo · · Score: 1

      There's the other side to this coin too. Most people who would upgrade after a couple of years, while their old hardware was working were suddenly faced with not really wanting to upgrade due to prices.

      So they didn't, and many of them likely noticed that there isn't actually anything coming out that can really overtax their three-ish years old hardware.

      I wonder just how badly nvidia and amd managed to shoot themselves in the foot by essentially forcing the "upgrade every couple of years" people face the fact that their old hardware performs just fine for much longer and now that games are made primarily with console ports in mind, benefits from newer hardware are minimized to the extreme.

    3. Re:A whole lot of factors by meta-monkey · · Score: 1

      Right there with you. I wanted to build a new machine in February but the GPU prices were nuts, so I waited, and I'm absolutely not about to go drop $600 on a 2 year old GPU. I've waited this long, I can wait until the next gen GPUs come out.

      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
    4. Re:A whole lot of factors by Kulahan · · Score: 1

      Assuming they stick to their guns and really *don't* release any new GPUs for a couple years, you can expect the next release to be celebrated with as much fanfare as they can muster while they talk about how it's the "single largest jump in GPU technology in the history of the company" or something equally misleading.

      I wonder if this has something to do with the fact that they're having a hard time churning out faster and faster cards? So instead of dropping a card that's 20% faster each year, they release one that's 30% faster every other year, for instance.

    5. Re:A whole lot of factors by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The new GPUs are better, but lot of the gains are in above 60 FPS gaming. Gaming benchmarks are now hitting above 100 FPS in major games using a 1080 Ti. Even above 1080p you can get ridiculous frame rates.

      Anyone gaming at 1080p at 60 FPS doesn't need to upgrade. They can make do with parts a little out of date without impacting their experience.

    6. Re:A whole lot of factors by Osgeld · · Score: 1

      yup same here, which is why my ryzen has a GTX980 in it

      and big shocker, it still runs everything just fine

    7. Re:A whole lot of factors by Moof123 · · Score: 2

      This. I was interested in upgrading 6 months ago, but the crypto craze had prices beyond what is reasonable, so I waited. Now I'd rather wait a while longer for the next generation unless there are some sweet discounts (unlikely). 4K at >60 Hz is a big want. I'd also really like to see some unified G-Sync/FreeSync standard come along, preferable without the 2-3x monitor markup.

    8. Re:A whole lot of factors by exomondo · · Score: 1

      They didn't say it would be a couple of years but in any case why release a gaming product that isn't significantly different than their last gaming product? For example the TitanV doesn't perform that much better than the TitanX in gaming because the key thing the Volta architecture introduced is the tensor cores which are great for machine learning and AI applications as well as the denoising step in ray tracing applications but they don't do anything for gamers so there's little point putting out a Volta-based Geforce line of products.

      These days GPU vendors don't just serve PC gamers.

    9. Re:A whole lot of factors by PhrostyMcByte · · Score: 1

      I'd also really like to see some unified G-Sync/FreeSync standard come along, preferable without the 2-3x monitor markup.

      VESA already did this, it's called Adaptive Sync and it's part of DisplayPort 1.2a.

      NVIDIA refuses to implement it.

  13. Price inflexion point by iTrawl · · Score: 1

    My uneducated guess is that there's a price inflexion point concerning miners. Once the price drops below they'll have the opposite problem: supply shortage. Gamers will buy at current prices too, but miners are waiting for a price drop where mining makes sense, and when it does they'll fly in like locusts and the cycle begins anew.

    --
    "Everybody's naked underneath" -- The Doctor
  14. Nvidia may be in for some difficult times by foxalopex · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I've used both Nvidia's and AMD's (Formerly ATI) graphics cards but have never been a huge fan of Nvidia's almost monopolistic practices so I tend to get AMD cards whenever I can. Still I would say Nvidia has a lot to worry about on it's hands. Although AMD and Intel are competitors, they do have times that they work together closely and Intel's next gen GPU are signs that they will. Unlike Nvidia, Intel is likely to be working on open standards with AMD and their recent joint CPU / GPU project looks like they'll be able to do so.

    1. Re:Nvidia may be in for some difficult times by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hope AMD succeed in building more market share. They're a force towards good.

      OpenCL versus proprietary CUDA.
      Freesync versus proprietary license-fee-required G-sync.
      Full fp16 compute performance versus deliberately crippled.
      No bullshit EULA's that forbid using consumer cards professionally.

      Nvidia are the Microsoft of the graphics world. Don't feed them.

  15. Lower prices? by Zorro · · Score: 1

    I seriously doubt it.

  16. Fuck you nvidia! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Mmm. yeah... {rubs his shiny new amd video card with 16 gig}

  17. Allow Data Centre Use by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I bet there are quite a few who would happily pay for them if they removed the license restrictions they added to the driver that prevents the use of their cards (with their driver at least) in a data centre - unless used for blockchain processing.

    1. Re: Allow Data Centre Use by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The new restrictions absolutely cancelled many upcoming orders. And bitcoin is dead, so no more mad dash to purchase gaming cards for mining.
      Many under-20s are happy with an iPad or Samsung Note... actual PC that use GPUs are going the way of the 8-Track players...
      And nvidia only sells 8-track tapes.

    2. Re: Allow Data Centre Use by Narcocide · · Score: 1

      And nvidia only sells 8-track tapes.

      Nvidia also sells the hardware used in the Nintendo Switch as well as another line of high-end gaming tablets. Don't get me wrong, I would like to see them taken down a peg too, but it doesn't look to me like they're out of markets to trample.

  18. Re: why? small gubmint, duh! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That has all the hallmarks of a dead-on-arrival republican empty promise toothless tiger of a law that provides no means for enforcement or collection but plenty of fines and jail should you selectively be found in violation. To quote a famous Ruskie: What a cuntry!

  19. Re: BZZZT. Wrongo bundo. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Collusion between *marketeers* to inflate prices of a sole-source product is price fixing and many such as car dealerships have been charged and fined.

    Tell us about the new Oldsmobiles ranton..

  20. Re: nice midrange card lol by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    $549 is more than I spent on my 570gtx in 2013.. still waiting for those prices to come down ANY DAY NOW.. right? lol.

  21. Re: specious claims bud by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Tasers killed LOTS of meth junkies before the stock went public, you just didnt read the stories or give a shit. Following your greed says plenty.

  22. Message from Linus to Nvidia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  23. Turn it into a folding @ home farm by xack · · Score: 1

    Instead of chasing now miniscule cryptocoins how about giving the folding @ home team a big boost with a huge folding farm. Or if you still want something crypto related then there’s the rc5-72 challenge.

  24. Re: BZZZT. Wrongo bundo. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I am confused. Your first sentence agrees with what ranton said. But your second sentence implies that your first sentence is supposed to disagree with them.

  25. Re: BZZZT. Wrongo bundo. by ranton · · Score: 1

    Collusion between *marketeers* to inflate prices of a sole-source product is price fixing and many such as car dealerships have been charged and fined.

    And if they find multiple retailers colluding to inflate prices of Nvidia GPUs it would certainly be considered price fixing. I'm not sure how that is related to what I said, since in that case there are competing retailers involved.

    --
    -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
  26. Re: nice midrange card lol by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Setting aside any arguments about "the price of goods should come down as time goes on" vs "things are more complex now so of course prices will go up", you are comparing the cost of a mid-end card against the cost of a high-end card.

    Or put another way, I am 100% certain that the cost of a 580GTX in 2013 was more than you spent on your 570GTX.

  27. Can't wait for the lawsuit by slashmydots · · Score: 2

    So there's a massive shortage, cards are (or very recently were) sold out everywhere, prices are up like 30% minimum, and some vendor was sitting on 300,000 cards? Holding them for ransom at a higher than MSRP price and then sending them back to Nvidia when gamers don't play along, huh? THAT'S CALLED PRICE FIXING. Have fun in jail.

    1. Re:Can't wait for the lawsuit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not cards, GPUs. They probably bought all of the procs with the intention of turning them into boards to feed the mining craze. Now that that has slowed down with prices also finally starting to come down out of the stratosphere it probably isn't profitable for them to assemble the boards considering whatever Nvidia charged them for the GPUs.

  28. This Link by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Is why the internet has problems. I don't want to register to finish reading an article. Let me read the article or don't, do not let me read half the article, and hold the other half as ransom. Fuck you. I hope "Seeking Alpha" dies and leads its "investors" into financial ruin. Fuck Nvidia, too. They created a fake low supply issue to keep prices high and compete with AMD. You can seek an Alpha and be lied to if you want, but thinking isn't that hard.

  29. It always comes back to humans. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Every time I read a story with a headline like this, at some point it mentions a human stuffing up .

    And sure enough, that's exactly what happened. The "machine" did exactly what it was supposed to - which is how humans programmed it.