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IPCC Climate Change Report Calls For Urgent Action To Phase Out Fossil Fuels (bbc.com)

The United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a report that says global temperatures are heading towards 3 degrees C, and that the original goal of keeping the rise under 1.5 degrees C will require "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society." While the window of opportunity is not yet closed, the prospect looks unlikely and hugely expensive. BBC reports: The critical 33-page Summary for Policymakers certainly bears the hallmarks of difficult negotiations between climate researchers determined to stick to what their studies have shown and political representatives more concerned with economies and living standards. Despite the inevitable compromises, there are some key messages that come through loud and and clear. "The first is that limiting warming to 1.5C brings a lot of benefits compared with limiting it to 2 degrees. It really reduces the impacts of climate change in very important ways," said Prof Jim Skea, who is a co-chair of the IPCC. "The second is the unprecedented nature of the changes that are required if we are to limit warming to 1.5C -- changes to energy systems, changes to the way we manage land, changes to the way we move around with transportation."

"Scientists might want to write in capital letters, 'ACT NOW IDIOTS,' but they need to say that with facts and numbers," said Kaisa Kosonen, from Greenpeace, who was an observer at the negotiations. "And they have." The researchers have used these facts and numbers to paint a picture of the world with a dangerous fever, caused by humans. We used to think if we could keep warming below 2 degrees this century then the changes we would experience would be manageable. Not any more. This new study says that going past 1.5C is dicing with the planet's liveability. And the 1.5C temperature "guard rail" could be exceeded in just 12 years in 2030. We can stay below it but it will require urgent, large-scale changes from governments and individuals, plus we will have to invest a massive pile of cash every year, around 2.5% of global GDP, for two decades. Even then, we will still need machines, trees and plants to capture carbon from the air that we can then store deep underground. Forever!
In order to get to 1.5C, the report says the following will be necessary: Global emissions of CO2 need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030; Renewables are estimated to provide up to 85% of global electricity by 2050; Coal is expected to reduce to close to zero; Up to 7 million sq km of land will be needed for energy crops (a bit less than the size of Australia); and Global net zero emissions by 2050. As if this wasn't demanding enough, the report says that to limit warming to 1.5C, it will involve "annual average investment needs in the energy system of around $2.4 trillion" between 2016 and 2035.

If the planet reaches 2C of warming, coral reefs would be almost entirely wiped out and global sea-levels will rise around 10 centimeters more. "There are also significant impacts on ocean temperatures and acidity, and the ability to grow crops like rice, maize and wheat," reports The Guardian.

Further reading: Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040.

70 of 478 comments (clear)

  1. Re:I think global warming is caused by gays by Chrisq · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'm goinga build an ark

    I'd finish your wall first, Don.

  2. 3 degrees C by Rei · · Score: 3, Funny

    says global temperatures are heading towards 3 degrees C

    (Opens window and sticks hand outside)

    Yeah, sounds about right.

    --
    "Close the door! What, were you born in a barn?" -- Police chief, "Jesus Christ Supercop"
    1. Re:3 degrees C by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 2

      I guess they're right about the global warming thing because the thermometer outside my Canadian igloo is indicating 8C this morning (for the metric-impaired readers, that's 281.15 Kelvin).

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
    2. Re:3 degrees C by Luckyo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This hasn't been about oil in a long time. Biggest offender by far is coal. Coal is cheap, efficient and reliable. As long as you don't give a fuck about what happens to some people on the other side of the planet, it's great.

      Which is why many developing countries are building it up en masse. So the real question is "how many East Asians and Africans are you willing to enslave and/or massacre to get the coal power generation down?"

      Because the answer probably is "not nearly enough" if you're a person with even a shred of humanism.

  3. the planet doesn't "care"... by lkcl · · Score: 4, Informative

    y'know... the planet doesn't care if humans are on it or not. if we're all dead (cooked, starved, killed in food riots), the planet will be peaceful and recover from our cancerous pathological behaviour, soon enough. Agent Smith: "you humans are like a plague. a disease. and we? we... are the cure..."

    1. Re:the planet doesn't "care"... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Ultimately correct, but don't you want to keep living?
      If not, please reduce your carbon emissions to 0, immediately...

    2. Re: the planet doesn't "care"... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      I have 4 kids. I guess Darwin will take care of people with your 1 or 0 kids attitude within a couple of generations.

    3. Re: the planet doesn't "care"... by c6gunner · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's great; I fully support the efforts of anyone who decides to take themselves out of the gene pool. More room for my offspring.

  4. all of these warnings do nothing to incite change by Kwirl · · Score: 5, Informative

    the world is run by corporations, not people. corporations are run by shareholders. a large part of the stock game is run by algorithms calculating and trading stocks for maximum efficiency. that algorithm does not care about the weather or the long term suitability of our planet.

  5. Re: Phase Out IPCC Instead by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Cue obligatory XKCD on climate, in another probably vain attempt to educate the dunderheads:

    https://xkcd.com/1732/

  6. Low externality baseload Solar by MrKaos · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Solar Reserve have some great low externality base load solar power stations. The heat is stored in molten salt and is available when the sun goes down. Base load solar plant like this can be scaled up, I have no affiliation with them however I find their technology interesting.

    Coupled with domestic, industrial and commercial P.V there is enough energy in the sun to build power infrastructure. Combined with the terawatts of power available with wind and geothermal does anyone think the oil and coal industry want this technology to be developed and advanced?

    I reason that any form of massive dynamic grid will need a lot of intelligence to make the power available where it is needed, which means interesting technological avenues to explore, a massive explosion of information technology and, fortunes to be made as the economy changes. If we can overcome the economic inertia.

    None of the criticisms of these technologies ever ask what it would take to build such infrastructures and all of the technologies look like they scale well. We know we can't continue the way we are going because we will die. This is not just about the planet - Save the Humans, the planet will be just fine.

    The only rational conclusion is that the world is being run by complete anti-social psychopaths who actually want such an outcome, otherwise it would be done already. The excuses are less and less believable every day.

    --
    My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    1. Re:Low externality baseload Solar by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The only rational conclusion is that the world is being run by complete anti-social psychopaths

      Sorry, but that is just a populist opinion. The other possible rational conclusion is that things are not as simple as they appear to you. Which do you think is more likely?

      And in this case I can tell you why it is not that easy. Change costs money and shifts prosperity. Big changes do this on a large scale. Now, everyone wants what is best for this world, but everyone is also looking out for number one. That is not something to blame people for. It is inherent to human nature, driven by millions of years of evolution.
      The obvious consequence is that in the only way to resolve this peacefully, being negotiation, people are going to play a game of chicken. The one who blinks last wins. Again, just human nature.

      You may not like it, but it is hardly fair to blame people for this. And in case you think you are not part of the problem yourself: Lets discuss one aspect of this. How we are going to fund the huge upfront costs for a new energy system?
      Money can only be spent once, so which costs are we going to cut? Reduce your grandparents pension maybe? Or maybe increase your taxes? double your energy bill for the next 30 years? Outright make it illegal for you to own a gas guzzler of a car?

      Unless you will roll over and accept these measures quietly, you are just as much part of the problem as everyone else.

    2. Re:Low externality baseload Solar by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      As of today, the only clean air scalable tech that can replace coal and gas plants is nuclear.

      But unfortunately, many have decided they'd rather fight against nuclear than reduce our emissions. Thanks to those folks, we've already lost the battle.

    3. Re:Low externality baseload Solar by e3m4n · · Score: 2

      most of the oil industry has already diversified into other energy production. So they're going to make money no matter what kind of electricity you're buying. But demand keeps trying to outpace supply. We cant have any sort of limits on fossil fuel consumption as long as stupid shit like crypto mining exists. It wastes energy for the pure purpose of wasting energy. In a single day, it consumes more power globally than a small island the size of Puerto Rico could reasonably consume in a year. The massive heat that comes off these devices is unreal, its like leaving the stove running all day with its door left ajar. Eliminating wasteful energy consumption is just as important as boosting non-fossile-based power production. We need to revisit hydrogen as a means of energy transportation because some renewable energy sources are highly geographically limited.

    4. Re:Low externality baseload Solar by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 2

      And in this case I can tell you why it is not that easy. Change costs money and shifts prosperity. Big changes do this on a large scale.

      Indeed it does. But the question is will the change caused by global warming/climate change cost you even more than doing something about it. Many people seem to think it won't but if what the climate scientists say is correct (and they get more things correct about it than wrong) the answer is no.

      What is missing from most people's mindset is that a sort of roulette is being played out. As weather patterns shift, some areas that are now verdant will become jungles or perhaps deserts. As temperate zones move north some areas that are fringe civilization will become breadbaskets.

      So good luck everyone. There will be big winners, and there will be big losers.

      Now what I have seen is that if you press the deniers really hard, you'll find out they actually like the idea of warmth. Here in the soggy Northeast of the US, my older compatriots bitch about the record rainfall, but don't complain at all about how in mid October, the trees are still green, and it barely dropped below 70 last night.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    5. Re:Low externality baseload Solar by Raenex · · Score: 2

      You mean thanks to the Americans who don't even realize they are the biggest problem and all the American trolls trying to pass the blame off to China.

      China produces more CO2 than America, by a large margin, and it's only going to increase.

    6. Re:Low externality baseload Solar by blindseer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Solar Reserve have some great low externality base load solar power stations.

      It won't work. It can't work. I say this because it uses the same materials for the salt and piping as molten salt nuclear reactors and I've been told the salt will simply eat through the pipes and all you will have is an expensive mess.

      Let's assume this solar salt thermal storage technology does work, then molten salt nuclear reactors will work. Research in one molten salt technology is directly applicable to the other. If these solar thermal plants gain any traction and prove the technology on molten salts then molten salt nuclear reactors will soon follow.

      There's a big difference though between these molten salt technologies, nuclear power doesn't need sunny skies to provide power. The claims of being able to provide power through the night is not what I'm talking about, I mean that the nuclear reactor can run where it cannot ever see the sun. This can be above the Arctic Circle. This can be underground. This can be under the sea. On the moon. On Mars. These solar power collectors need land, and lots of it, for collecting the sun while nuclear does not. I've heard people claim these collectors can be on rooftops or the land underneath can be used for other purposes. I won't dispute this. I only say that the same applies to nuclear power, it can be put underneath anything. It can be under an airport, a military base, or a bunch of solar collectors. Land use is effectively zero for both but the power output per area is very low for solar but nearly unlimited for nuclear.

      The only rational conclusion is that the world is being run by complete anti-social psychopaths who actually want such an outcome, otherwise it would be done already. The excuses are less and less believable every day.

      That's not the only rational conclusion. Another is that the politicians that keep talking of our impending doom unless we do something don't believe their own words. If the powers that be in government believed that if CO2 output from human activity was not reduced dramatically now then they'd be pulling out all the stops on low CO2 energy regardless of the form it took.

      Here's an example, the US Navy wanted some new nuclear powered warships. The Navy already has nuclear powered submarines and aircraft carriers but the use of nuclear powered destroyers and cruisers ended in the 1990s. The Navy wanted new nuclear powered cruisers because they offer advantages beyond simply not burning oil and contributing to the CO2 in the air, such as increased range and the ability to keep fighting without have to take on fuel from a much less battle capable oiler. Congress denied this as a matter of costs. Another example the US Coast Guard wants... that's not right, NEEDS new ice breakers to service scientific missions in Antarctica and to keep shipping lanes open for communities in Alaska, communities including military bases and their families. Congress won't replace the aging and continually in disrepair oil fired ice breakers with nuclear powered versions. Military bases domestically and around the world need reliable power that is not subject to the whims of foreign supplies of oil. Past administrations put up fragile solar collectors and windmills that interfere with radar used to detect incoming missiles and aircraft.

      If these people were serious about solving the problems of reducing CO2 output, providing for energy independence, and assuring the military is effective in defending our national interests, then they'd be building nuclear powered ships and putting nuclear power plants on military bases, airports, seaports, and other vital facilities.

      Perhaps I'm merely arguing the powers that be are a different kind of sociopath, they don't want to solve the problems but merely appear to be working towards those ends. This means a series of half-assed "solutions" that on the surface appear to be a means to make things better but in the

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    7. Re:Low externality baseload Solar by philmarcracken · · Score: 2

      Collected solar towers do need land and to be able to see the sun but they also don't produce nuclear waste.

    8. Re:Low externality baseload Solar by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      We need to revisit hydrogen as a means of energy transportation because some renewable energy sources are highly geographically limited.

      Fast battery charging means that we should not be commercializing hydrogen yet, given its poor system efficiency today. Unfortunately the automakers have decided that they have to wring some profits out of their hydrogen research now. There's plenty of low-hanging fruit before we need to mess with hydrogen, and it can get better in the interim. Guess it doesn't matter what I think, though. Hydrogen cars are here (where "here" is defined as California, for now) already and they will probably continue to be around for some time.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  7. States could step in. by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 4, Interesting

    While the US federal government has a distinct lack of political will change pollution, it is still possible for states to take action that will have a wide effect.

    For example, a state could require an environmental tax on all products (including imports) that are equivalent to the cost the remove the pollution expelled in the production (or use) of the product. They could then use that money to fun CO2 capture systems. Naturally, you would want to ramp this up over a few years as to reduce the economic impact. While the demands of a single state would have a small impact, it would provide the political cover for other states to join in.

    This would soon bankrupt coal power plants and quickly point power companies toward ramping up environmentally friendly power sources lest competition take their profits. So if some state politicians can just grow a pair and do this then we'll be on our way to environmental recovery.

    Good progress is made by the brave, not the cowards who only think of themselves.

    --
    Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    1. Re:States could step in. by swb · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I think the states are handcuffed by Congress' ability to regulate interstate commerce. States can't charge tariffs on imports from other states.

      I honestly don't know how California was ever able to get away with its own emissions standards in the 1970s when up against the Big 3 automakers other than the obvious smog problems in LA making it clear something had to be done.

      States have pretty good options for regulating pollution outputs but they're also often up against the economic realities of the cost of energy as a major factor in their local business economics, and the fact that a lot of power plants are owned by national companies. Force closed a big coal plant without anything to replace its baseload? Sure, but now you've tripled the cost of electricity and it won't be long before local businesses close or relocate because they aren't profitable at the new rates.

      I never know how much of the "solar/wind is growing!!!11" hype to actually believe, but it's probably likely that the economics of it really are starting to make sense and the only way change will really happen is when the economics of it work.

    2. Re:States could step in. by Ichijo · · Score: 2

      The red states could not afford to allow the blue states to secede, so they will probably not let it happen no matter how many liberal judges and politicians California and the other blue states be promise to take with them.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
  8. Ironic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So they recommend people to use trains, fly less and use video conferencing. When they all flew to South Korea for their conference..

    "All animals are equal, and some animals are more equal than the others."

    1. Re:Ironic by SqueakyMouse · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It would certainly have set a better example had they made a point of video conferencing rather than flying however we must be mindful of the 'tu quoque' fallacy.

  9. If only 10C rise could happen quicker. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Speaking as a Canadian, a 10C increase would be quite nice(even tolerable in summer)... If we could hold back the climate refugees ;p

  10. WRONG. Do it with Cost and Money, not just facts. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Simply put, if you don't put this in terms of monetary impact to those involved (politicians, government) then you're going to get ignored.

    There's nothing better than saying: If you do nothing, then your land with factory/plant X is going to be full of water and unusable - this means your businesses in that area (which probably lobby you) won't exist, and it'll cost this much to move them if you do nothing. Over time, this will multiply and become hugely expensive, certainly more expensive than doing something about it and limiting emissions (etc other stuff in report to mitigate warming)

    Facts mean little to politicians. I thought people knew this already?

  11. If only there were a dealmaker in the house by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

    If such a person existed, he/she could organize a grand climate Panmunjom.

    The right would have to admit that the greenhouse mechanism is plausible and that current data shows warming. There may be disagreement about exactly how much there is and at what point 'weather' becomes 'climate,' but it's out there, and growing.

    The left would have to allow us to use all carbon-free technologies in addressing the problem, rather than just the ones that are tiny and cute. In the real world, we still need energy-usinh big cities and heavy industries.

  12. Idiots by Framboise · · Score: 2

    "ACT NOW IDIOTS" is indeed the most appropriate language for the stupids.

     

    1. Re:Idiots by 110010001000 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What does this have to do with Trump? The EU increased their carbon output in 2017 (and is doing worse in 2018). Are they Trump supporters? https://www.reuters.com/articl...

    2. Re:Idiots by atrex · · Score: 2

      Apparently Brazil is most likely about to elect their own version of climate change denying Trumpist too. Fifth largest nation in the world. I think you called it right, we are doomed thanks to the stupids.

    3. Re:Idiots by drinkypoo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Kavanaugh was elected because he was a highly qualified justice,

      Highly qualified to suck corporate cock, anyway.

      and the claims against him had zero corroboration

      Fail, fail.

      and in fact, the claimants (all of them) consistently changed their stories.

      False.

      The only idiots were the ones who chose to continue to believe the claims in such case.

      Yeah, you're not an idiot, you're just morally bankrupt.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    4. Re:Idiots by blindseer · · Score: 2

      Brett Kavanaugh is on the Supreme Court right now because the Democrats couldn't be bothered to properly handle a criminal accusation. This wasn't a question of his character, although that was certainly part of it, or a matter of his political slant. He was accused of a crime. The Democrats sat on this criminal accusation for weeks, maybe even months or years, rather than hand that off to the proper law enforcement agencies. They could have handed it off to the FBI but they would likely have simply handed it off to the local police, since the crime did not occur within the jurisdiction of the FBI they cannot investigate any such crime themselves. The proper investigation authority was not the FBI, and the senators should have known this or found someone that knew this.

      Congress has subpoena powers to compel testimony and to secure relevant documents. They failed to subpoena witnesses and, with the exception of Grassley demanding records from the accusers, called for nothing to corroborate that a crime had occurred. If Ford wanted to keep Kavanaugh from SCOTUS then she should have provided the documents requested before the committee even asked for them. Ford should also have written letters or made a phone call to Grassley or some other senator when her claims of Kavanaugh's misconduct was not brought up earlier in the confirmation process.

      The Democrats delayed in bringing the accusations to light when they first heard of it. They failed to forward the accusations to the law enforcement agencies with jurisdiction. They failed to subpoena witnesses. They failed to perform a proper interview of the accused and the accuser when they had the opportunity. They failed to find corroborating witnesses, in a crime that supposedly had several witnesses. Ford failed to provide times, dates, places, and names, to allow for a proper investigation.

      We have Justice Kavanaugh today because the Democrats failed to make their case when there was still time to do a proper investigation. Don't get mad at the Republicans over this, of course they are going to pick one of their own. Blame the Democrats. Kavanaugh was a judge for 15 years up to today, so it's not like there wasn't time to bring up accusations of sexual assault before now.

      Yeah, you're not an idiot, you're just morally bankrupt.

      The Senate Democrats charged with making their case against Kavanaugh being appointed to SCOTUS are idiots for not following the proper process to investigate this crime and keep Kavanaugh off the court, and morally bankrupt for making this a circus of politics than an investigation of a crime. The Democrats in the Senate screwed up on this big time, and now they have to live with their mistakes.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  13. Re:WRONG. Do it with Cost and Money, not just fact by ledow · · Score: 3, Interesting

    But... is it?

    Is it ACTUALLY more expensive to not do anything? Certainly, morally, but in terms of actual solutions and their efficacy and the knock-on effects and the cost of implementations - the data is actually thin on the ground.

    The Paris agreement is an example. Even if we all stuck to it, these same research bodies are now saying it's not enough.

    If the cost of not-drowing-in-Waterworld is to actually make many modern conveniences so expensive and unobtainable, have we "won"? Is that "better"? Is people aren't being flooded out of the coastal regions, but nobody can afford their electricity bill, or medicines and oils and products and shipping is suddenly twice as expensive?

    Everyone's done the "cost analysis" of not doing something. Nobody has (realistically) done the cost analysis of actually doing something that might work - or even really suggested what that is.

    It's a huge bugbear to me. The solutions are half-assed casual suggestions ("release less CO2", "stop burning oil"), etc. but the COST of doing so is not just a number on a balance sheet. More old people will die in winter, more things we take for granted won't be practical, and the associated error-bars are HUGE because we just don't know what's going to happen.

    I'm perfectly happy to trust in science and saying yes, this is happening, it's bad, it's caused by us. Let's take that as an "assumption" to work from even if you don't personally believe it.

    Now what? What do we do that fixes it? We stop burning coal. Okay, what would that affect? To my knowledge only one country in the world is coal-free on any regular basis (Germany?), and that's still one of the countries most reliant on coal overall. It's ALWAYS fossil fuels. Then nuclear. Then biomass (trees!). Then all the other "renewable" sources.

    So just a simple statement as "don't burn coal" drastically affects the economy and energy production of every country on the planet. That's going to knock into heating, cooling and industry before anything else. Which is going to kill people (even if only the elderly) and make everything more expensive.

    And that's just one item. Taken together, do the effects of "let's just burn everything, ramp up energy and use that resource to find a better solution" actually kill less or more people over the next 100 years? We don't know. Few ever study the "other side" of the coin.

    The problem with this kind of thing, which I wholeheartedly believe is conveying a necessary message, is that the message boils down to "DO THIS OR DIE!" and then someone in the crowd says "But... if we do that... do we not die anyway? Just in a different way, while destroying industry and society and causing more damage long-term?" And nobody has even the decency to look sheepish or say "Well, no, actually we looked and it wouldn't hurt at all if we did X instead".

    The research into that side might exist, but it's certainly not being advertised and not being made popular and almost certainly not being done as rigorously or as seriously as the scaremongering.

    I'd honestly like to know - if we do EVERYTHING - if we all get unanimous worldwide co-operation and overnight we all become vegans who wash their clothes on rocks, solar-power the entire world, never burn so much as a match again, pump all our energy resources into reversing the CO2 increase, recycle every plastic bag in every landfill in the planet, etc. etc. etc. - whatever loony ideas we can come up with - will that *actually* make it better than the alternative? Because I see drastically little evidence that way. I know we all say "it's there, it's what the scientists say"... but as I consider myself a scientist, I can't honestly look and say "I must recommend this path, or indeed ANY path, out of this mess, because it will be better than the thing we think might happen if we don't".

    Everyone acknowledges the problem. The solution eludes us. And the cost-benefit analysis of any dream we can imagine is really "Er... dunno... probably not" at best.

  14. stop flying by bigtreeman · · Score: 2

    Stop flying around the world for stupid fucking holidays

    --
    Go well
  15. Attitude of those in Power--I'll be dead (shrug) by decaffeinated · · Score: 2
    The current generation of leaders is going to leave an absolute garbage dump of a planet to the next generation--the Millennials.

    Think I'm exaggerating? Australia just recently gave up on its effort to meet its Paris climate agreement carbon reduction targets.

    Lots of folks gonna' be packing up and moving to escape rising seas and suffocating heat (e.g., S. Arizona).

  16. Re:I think global warming is caused by gays by Barsteward · · Score: 2

    i wouldn't want to be in an ark in a hurricane

    --
    "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  17. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by AmiMoJo · · Score: 5, Interesting

    That's a very US-centric view. In the EU, for example, we have considerably more control over corporations. See our environmental and privacy protections, for example. We also tend to have more limits on the funding of political parties and the amount they can spend, which really helps keep things from getting as bad as the US.

    Having said that, even in the US the corporations don't have total control. Look at emission limits on cars, surely if big oil and car manufacturers were running things those wouldn't exist.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  18. You're not wrong by Viol8 · · Score: 3, Funny

    I have a cousin who works as an enviromental consultant - helps small companies reduce their carbon footprint. But every year she takes at least 2 long haul holidays with her bf, usually to the far east. But wait, thats ok according to her - because once they get their they don't hire a car but cycle around! No, I'm not making this shit up. And yes, she's a millenial.

    1. Re:You're not wrong by Bongo · · Score: 2

      Has anyone seen the UK TV mini series Utopia?
      The episode where the guy is chatting to a mom with a kid at a bus station, and she says she is taking the bus because of the environment. and then he launches into a stone cold monologue regards, so then why did you have the kid?

      And does anyone remember how this all used to be about population growth? Films like ZPG, made in 1972?

      We ran out of time when the Earth's carrying capacity was exceeded by cheating humans, around 12,000 years ago when we invented agriculture.
      Agriculture rapes ecosystems and forces them into unnatural monocultures, which inevitably deplete the soil.

      There's even an argument that civilisations fell whenever, after a few centuries or about a thousand years, they depleted their soils and crashed their food production, because agriculture takes away from the soil and doesn't put anything back.
      Of course, we cheat by using fossil based fertilisers.

      These sorts of arguments just add up to a picture that, the Earth's carrying capacity for humans is exactly how many humans were living as hunter gatherers 50,000 years ago, when our numbers were kept in check by natural availability of animals and berries.

      That's it. Everything after that was a cheat. Defining stable climate as pre-industrial levels is also a cheat. Try instead, using pre-agricultural levels.
      That would actually be realistic.

      Our current "crop" (pun intended) of experts are corporate driven people who still think big agribusiness is the way to feed the world. It isn't.
      Rice, bread, and carrots are not sustainable anymore than SUVs are sustainable. It is all a cheat.

      Ask the Egyptians of old. Ask the people of the "fertile crescent" which ain't so fertile anymore. Ask anyone who relied on agriculture in the face of changing environmental conditions like soil depletion.

      There is a reason we were, for almost our entire history, living as nomadic hunters and gatherers.

      The ecology view just doesn't run deep enough. We are royally screwed but for whatever reason, we cheated our way to a population of ten billion, as projected, once Africa gets going, and we did it using technology.

      Why do we think they keep extending this so-called "must act now" deadline? Because it isn't real. The real deadline was 12,000 years ago when we invented agriculture as a way to cheat environmental restraints.

      It is when the European turned up in that land and shot all the natives who were living on bison and berries in harmony and balance with the environment.

      Now this same technological culture thinks it can get some experts to figure out the right way to CONTINUE this cheat exercise. Well maybe we just cut back a bit on this here stuff and do some more of that other stuff. More grains and less meat, more solar and wind and less oil. That's ludicrous. We never existed in nature that way. For two million years humans lived and died as hunter gatherers and the children lived and learned in that environment.

      Now we think about "saving the environment" by plonking solar panels on the roof and trying to recycle plastics which inevitably end up in the environment anyway, if not on the first recycle then on the tenth or twentieth, all the while generating more industrial processing side-effects.

      It ain't natural. Don't have kids. That's about the only thing you can do, and then maybe you can say with a straight face, "yes I am saving the environment."

      END_POLEMIC

  19. Re:What is the correct temperature by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    STFU.

  20. How about we just make some shade by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Spin a giant fresnel lens (or simply a diffuser) at L1 to shade the earth, like was already suggested in 2004 by Gregory Benford. He said you could use plastic, but I have my doubts that would survive very long. Aluminium oxide maybe? L1 delta v isn't much higher than LEO, so with SpaceX costs this should be doable for 10s of billions in lift cost.

    A fraction of the opportunity cost of destroying the global economy and triggering WW3.

  21. Re:What is the correct temperature by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Is this temperature graph showing the temperature data before or after NOAA's retroactive 'corrections' to the temperature record? It's curious that all the corrections make historical temperatures colder and recent temperatures warmer. Almost as if they needed to fudge the data so that the 'global warming crisis' wouldn't fizzle out in the face of lack of evidence.

  22. Re:WRONG. Do it with Cost and Money, not just fact by LubosD · · Score: 4, Informative

    To my knowledge only one country in the world is coal-free on any regular basis (Germany?)

    LOL, Germany? You mean the country that shut down its nuclear power plants for "safety" reasons only to have them replaced with coal power plants?

  23. Did you even look at the numbers ? by aepervius · · Score: 5, Informative

    Long haul flight is basically around 2 kg fuel per seat for every 100km. For a long haul like , say, 8000 km that is about 160 Kg fuel time 2 for return that's 320 Kg fuel or 640 Kg per two persons. Compare that for average fuel consumption car is 9 kg per 100 Km. Let us say 10. So the distance corresponding is 6400 km of car, or about 8000 miles. Somebody doing 8 mils of commuting every day will have done that in 4 month. That is also by the way the same consumption as somebody doing their holiday in car, so barring you going only 20 miles away for holiday, you'll consume as much. And in the grand scheme of thing, that will probably be nothing compared to the carbon footprint reduction for most company. So you can take your millennial joke , and shove it (I am much older than a millennial but I can't appreciate people which use that as a cheap shot).

    --
    C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
    visit randi.org
    1. Re:Did you even look at the numbers ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Wow, 640 kg is a lot. So you think that it's acceptable to fill two bathtubs with jet fuel and setting them on fire for entertainment?

      The guy commuting by car is bad too and he needs to use a different transport or live closer to work even if this means living in a smaller space. You can't justify a bad activity by comparing to another bad activity.

  24. Permian–Triassic extinction event by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    No, that would be a Permian–Triassic extinction event, which was 8 degrees higher.

    Literally the CO2 in the sea, chokes everything in the sea, it dies, decays,, sulphur fills the air, land animals die, 98% species wipeout. Everyone dead.

  25. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by Mashiki · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yeah, and you also suppress speech, political parties, and imprison people for saying mean words, and ignore criminality committed by particular racial/ethnic groups. It's sure working out well. But let's be realistic, because those limits on the funding of political parties work out about as well as nothing. See the most recent bit where several left wing parties, in various EU countries which held power loosened fundraising rules in order to get more money from corporate donors, then re-tightened the rules after public outcry...and the fact they were about to lose the election.

    Look at emission limits on cars, surely if big oil and car manufacturers were running things those wouldn't exist.

    Possibly, but that hasn't happened. Yet we can see the "allowances" given to cities and businesses because they allow a financial trade off into the government coffers. Like dumping fresh water out of reservoirs during a drought, or allowing cities to dump raw sewage into rivers(by paying a fine) but causing downstream cities to halt intake because they can't treat it, or allow companies to overfish as long as they pay a fine on each catch in treaty violation. Looking at you EU, and your abuse of fishing treaties. Something that even China is doing a better job on.

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  26. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by GameboyRMH · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Sadly the possibility of everyone being dead years from now is not considered by these algorithms. HFT bots don't consider what's going to happen beyond the next few seconds. Most companies don't look beyond the next few quarters - usually not beyond 1 quarter. Some industries like insurance look further ahead and are already taking global warming into account, but most don't.

    Humanity is strapped to a machine that is indifferent to human suffering or ecological collapse and is dragging us toward catastrophe for our species and most of the life in the known universe.

    --
    "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  27. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by AmiMoJo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Hardly, and depending on context "the EU" isn't even one single entity. But none the less, there are things that the EU does better than the US, and vice versa. Discussing them and learning from each other is a good thing, no?

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  28. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

    Because you looked at one year's data and ignored a decades long trend to make your point, that's why.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  29. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2

    the world is run by corporations, not people. corporations are run by shareholders.

    And shareholders are people. So you're saying that:

    the world is not run by people

    AND

    the world is run by people

    For what it's worth, if you have a 401k, it is very likely that YOU are a shareholder. It's utterly certain that I am a shareholder, in about a dozen companies, not counting 401k, IRA, and similar items that own shares....

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  30. Well, this is it, the Big Common Threat. by GameboyRMH · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This is the massive threat to humanity we've seen in sci-fi movies, usually represented by an invading alien species or some massive natural(ish) disaster, but in real life it was our own pollution that first posed a huge threat to us all.

    And now we see how we react as a species to that threat. We didn't temporarily put aside our differences to work toward a common goal as fiction has often speculated. Instead most people kind of brushed the problem off and went back to focusing on the small-scale problems in their own lives, and a few people convinced themselves that the threat was made up and we'd all be fine. When we already had a good idea of how dangerous this threat was, those people elected a raging moron who shared their collectively suicidal beliefs to what was at the time the most powerful political office in the world.

    The biggest threat to humanity is ourselves. Working to optimize our societies into what is effectively a perfect breeding ground for psychopaths over the last few hundred years (and especially over the last few decades) has been biting us in the ass the entire time and is about to finally rip out our throats.

    I think our only hope is a millennial-driven political revolution - vote out every conservative everywhere across the globe, and put something between social democrats and democratic socialists in power so we can refocus our societies on benefiting as much of humanity as possible and defeat the incredibly short-sighted and largely detrimental business interests driving us to collective ruin.

    --
    "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  31. Rationalization ..... by King_TJ · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Actually, your story is a great example of why most people aren't really making an effort to change behaviors over climate change concerns.
    At the end of the day, we need to use a lot of energy to accomplish the things in life we want to do. Everything from taking those trips to visit family or friends to the daily work commute needed to earn a paycheck .... These things are relatively non-negotiable. Most of us only have so much income we can spend on things, and making more requires MORE energy usage. Maybe you start a service business as a side job or second job? Well, now you're traveling around to client sites in your spare time and running errands for needed supplies to do the work. With the high cost of such propositions as switching your vehicles to electric cars, it's out of financial reach for many people still.

    The biggest changes will only come about as the primary energy sources are converted over from burning fossil fuels. The power generation plants are actually doing this, but it's a very slow process that's (perhaps ironically) slowed down quite a bit by all the legal requirements for things like "environmental impact studies" - foisted upon the utility companies by the likes of Greenpeace. The main solution will probably be nuclear power - which is the toughest one to put online without a lot of resistance from environmental groups.

    Honestly, I feel like I've almost over-extended myself already, financially, investing in some of these "Green" solutions. I put as many PV solar panels on my roof as the company could fit, using the most efficient ones per square foot available at the time. I traded in a Jeep and a sports car to get a used Tesla S. And I just took out a loan to do some home repairs that included ripping down the old siding and material behind it and replacing it with better insulated, modern materials. So hopefully, that cuts down on my winter heating bill and energy usage. So I'm going to sleep well at night that I've done my share. But realistically, all of this is a tiny drop in the bucket in the big picture -- even if it's a huge chunk of my total income.

  32. Re:What is the correct temperature by riverat1 · · Score: 2

    But that aside I'm going to ask the same question I continue to ask - what is the correct temperature and who gets to decide?

    It's a meaningless question. There is no "correct temperature". The real question is what temperatures are compatible with maintaining a complex global civilization? We've built this civilization on a certain temperature regime and changing temperatures are going to cause costly adaptation to the new regime. It's not clear yet just how costly that adaptation will be but chances are it's going to be a lot more than you seem to think.

    CO2 cannot be responsible for the presented temperature increase because 1 molecule out of 2500 can't increase ambient temperature by that much,

    Not that crap again. When a CO2 (or other GHG molecule) absorbs an infrared photon that added energy is quickly transferred to other non-GHG molecules in the atmosphere 99+% of the time. Eventually another infrared photon is emitted in a random direction so approximately half of them head back to the surface further warming it. Here's a quote I saved that explains it in more detail:

    It is first necessary to understand that molecules are made up of atoms (with mass) are held together by bonds, much like two balls linked by springs, and therefore have ways of vibrating at specific frequencies.

    The bonds between two atoms in a molecule are particularly strong, and can only vibrate at very high frequencies (emphasize frequencies over energies) well above the frequency of infrared or the solar radiation spectrum.

    However, molecules with 3 or more atoms can vibrate by changing the angles between the three atoms, and they can vibrate at additional (lower) frequencies. Molecules like CO2 and H2O have vibrational frequencies within the infrared range. In these vibrations, the strong bonds between Carbon and Oxygen may still have very high vibrational frequencies, but the two Oxygen atoms can vibrate toward or away from each other at this lower frequency.

    Molecules with more than 3 atoms can vibrate in even more ways (which means more and more frequencies). Examples are CH4, CFCs, etc.

    When upward radiation close to the right frequency hits a CO2 molecule, it can excite the vibrational mode at that frequency. The outward radiation is reduced by the amount of energy that goes into the vibration. We see the reduced amount of outward radiation in the spectra observed by downward looking satellites.

    [The observant student then might ask why the energy that goes into the vibration does not just get sent back out to space by emitting a photon – after all, if the same molecule gets hit over and over with photons won’t the vibrational energy increase and increase? There are two answers: the simple part is that yes, the energy can be re-emitted, but the direction of the emitted photons does not have to have the same upward angle. In fact, the extra energy will as likely go down as up. On average, only half of the incoming energy continues on an upward path, half heads back toward Earth to participate in the answer to question 3.

    The second answer comes from equipartion of energy. Temperature is a measure of the kinetic energy of the molecules. This kinetic energy is made up of not only the vibrational energy, but also the rotational energy and the classical kinetic energy of moving molecules.

    When one molecule with high vibrational energy bumps into another molecule (even one without a vibrational mode) some of that vibration can go into kicking the other molecule into faster motion or higher rotation. So energy gets lost from the vibrational mode and transferred into the general temperature of the surrounding gas. The CO2 molecule has a unique way to absorb energy at a particular frequency, but that energy gets transferred very quickly to its neighboring molecules, most of which have no way to emit radiation at that frequency.

    First, I view

  33. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by aquacrayfish · · Score: 2

    As an observer of this conversation, pointing out someone's snobbishness with, a highly-snobbish tone digs into the point you're trying to make.

  34. Re: It's getting hotter by Enigma2175 · · Score: 4, Informative

    "My fear is if North Korea nukes us, Trump gonna get us into a war" - Maxine Waters

    You realize she never said that, right? She said nothing even close - it's not an honest mistake or a misquote but just pure fabrication. I know it doesn't matter in this post-truth world but there are plenty of other cringe-worthy quotes available, so why go for a fake one?

    --

    Enigma

  35. Re: What is the correct temperature by JoeRobe · · Score: 2

    Please, please keep educating yourself about this:

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/ex...

    The first link you have up there is for the US southeast which is a noisy outlier in temperature trends compared to the global climate. Southeast US trends are not representative of the world.

    Those temperature adjustments made by NOAA are tiny compared to the scale of the temperature rise over the past 40 years (see link above). And they result in *less* cooling since 1900 instead of more.

    --
    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
  36. Re:WRONG. Do it with Cost and Money, not just fact by Raenex · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Everyone acknowledges the problem. The solution eludes us.

    Marine cloud brightening.

    And the cost-benefit analysis of any dream we can imagine is really "Er... dunno... probably not" at best.

    Ocean rise is currently the biggest economic impact, since so many people live on the coast. So keeping track of ocean levels is key.

  37. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by dunkelfalke · · Score: 2

    Funny thing about imprisoning people. Do you know which country has both the highest incarceration rate and the largest prison population (the latter actually higher than in the Soviet GULAGs)?

    --
    "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
  38. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by jwhyche · · Score: 2

    Let's just remind ourselves that you are going apeshit

    Hey Hey, lets not blow this out of portion. Seems to me he is just going a little batshit, but not at the apeshit level. Lets not ratchet this up THAT level if we can help it. :)

    --
    I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
  39. Re:Background noise by MightyYar · · Score: 5, Insightful

    now simply background noise

    Their doom and gloom warnings have always been about the distant future, and they continue to be. This isn't about people proclaiming the end of the world is near, and then the date passes with nothing happening. The claims they have made about the near-time have actually come to pass - actual observed global warming is well within the predictions made by their models. There is no reason to doubt that they will get less accurate with time and refinement.

    having been adjusted and interpolated time and again

    Of course it's been adjusted and interpolated - how else to you normalize inputs from more than one source? They don't have perfect data; it's all observational science. They don't have lots of earths to experiment on, or the ability to jump back in time with proper instrumentation.

    each one passes without the world ending

    Provide even a single example of this.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  40. Re: No Problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Ah, the old "Gore is a hypocrite therefore the science is wrong" argument. What next - Feynmann could be an ass therefore quantum mechanics is bunk?

  41. Re:Background noise by Darinbob · · Score: 4, Insightful

    in the larger fight between those who believe in Complete Government Control and those who believe in Individual Freedom.

    Is there no one in between those two world views? Why is politics always a fight between extremists with voices of reason being excluded from the contest? Climate change should have nothing to do with politics, except that so money have placed their political fortunes on denying climate change.

  42. Re:WRONG. Do it with Cost and Money, not just fact by blindseer · · Score: 2

    Everyone acknowledges the problem. The solution eludes us.

    The solution does not elude us. I've listened to many experts on energy and they all agree on several key points.

    First key point, more nuclear power. Nuclear power is safe, costs are less than wind and solar, reliable, and has lower CO2 emissions than any other energy source we have. The nuclear power plants we have now are getting old and will need to be replaced. We will need to start building nuclear power reactors now so when it's time to retire these old reactors we have something to take their place.

    Second key point, more natural gas. While this might seem counter productive this is vital as a means to transition from energy sources in current use of higher CO2 contributions, specifically coal and oil. To make vehicles move requires a fuel that is energy dense, plentiful, inexpensive, and easily converted to motive force. While natural gas isn't as energy dense as gasoline or diesel fuel it is close enough that conversion should be of little cost with the benefit of an immediate reduction of CO2 produced per mile by 30% or more. Much of the reductions in CO2 in the USA has been from switching electricity production from coal to natural gas. We can do better with nuclear power but in the time it will take to build those nuclear power plants we can burn natural gas for electricity and work to switch transportation to natural gas.

    Third key point, stop the subsidies. Subsidizing energy sources prevents the competition needed to drive lesser products and technologies from the market. There's enough solar and wind companies now that there can be real competition based on who can provide energy at the lowest price. What's happening now is that the winners are those with the best lobbyists than the best technology. Stop subsidizing bad windmills, solar collectors, electric cars, and so on, so natural market forces allow the best to come to market. Maybe there was a time when these subsidies were needed but that time has passed.

    This is not a fourth key point really but more an addendum to the point above, stop with pushing so much solar power! This keeps getting brought up again and again. Solar power is bad for the grid because it provides lots of power in the day and nothing at night, and does so nationwide all at the same time. At least with wind it's randomized a bit, there's some at night, and without the drop off in the evening when energy is needed most. Solar is also quite expensive, produces waste that's difficult to recycle, and takes a lot of area for the energy produced. Putting the collectors on rooftops only adds to the cost, even if it allows for preserving use of the land under it, and also adds to the risk of injuries and death to those installing and maintaining them. We need more wind and nuclear before we need to resort to expensive and generally problematic solar.

    We have solutions but also a federal government seemingly unwilling or unable to implement them.

    --
    I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  43. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by Mashiki · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's easy to have low gulag prisoner rates when most people simply die in the gulag(dead bodies don't count, and it keeps the ledgers clean). That's coming from someone who's grandfather spent 20 years in one for refusing to give his cows to "the state" oh and they demanded he provide the same next year.

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  44. Re:Background noise by MightyYar · · Score: 2

    Worse, better... these are usually compared against the averages. In reality, everything - temperature estimates, predictions, ocean levels - have pretty large error ranges. For the most part, actual measurements are falling within the error bars of the predictions.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  45. Re: Background noise by MightyYar · · Score: 2

    I don't know what point you are trying to make.

    Also, no one wipes my ass - I force the servants to lick it clean.

    What? WHY ARE YOU STARING AT ME?

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  46. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by stealth_finger · · Score: 2

    Soon to be two years data. Why is the EU increasing their carbon output?

    That's probably Britain burning all our bridges.

    --
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  47. Re:all of these warnings do nothing to incite chan by stealth_finger · · Score: 2

    Apparently you aren't very good at reading. I'm not being a snob at all.

    Yes, yes you are. When you make out you are better than someone or they are somehow worthless because of some ill defined 'what they are' metric that you decide. Even using a term like eurosnob invalidates the entire point you are trying to make and if you can't see that then you are a fucking idiot to boot.

    --
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  48. Re: all of these warnings do nothing to incite cha by MachineShedFred · · Score: 2

    No. I'd be happy with a proper accounting of the costs, rather than not accounting for it at all for over a hundred years and letting the problems be paid for by other people.

    Isn't it the libertarian credo that the market should be able to decide? So let's make it an even market and have the polluter pay. Get rid of all subsidy, be it direct or indirect.

    --
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