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Red Hat IPO Price Range Increase
saurus wrote in to tell us that an announcement has appearedon E*trade proclaiming that the IPO share price for Red Hat will now
be $12-$14. Everyone's getting really anxious to see what happens.
Brace yourself. Update: 08/11 12:32 by H : It looks like the info was pulled-anyone have more details? Post below.
Is that the same company that used to make C-64 software? I thought they went belly up LONG ago...
werd.
Werd.
Hmmm. Is java really buzzword compliant???? Find out for sure.
:)
Werd.
Its also worth mentioning, that it is entirely possible that you don't want cross-industry risk pooling if you have particular faith in the long term prospect of a given market.
When you add your cash reserves, real estate, and all those Botocelli's (heh heh) in your basement, it may be possible that accepting higher risk in your stock portfolio may put your overall asset portfolio right where you want it on the return horizon. =)
Pax -- Ob
Be, Inc. is down to $6.00 - it's IPO price. It doesn't appear that it -can- fall any further, it's just been sliding along at the same price, for several days now.
MP3.com's shares are still falling. I doubt they'll recover any time soon, it seems like a fairly terminal plunge to me, losing several dollars a day, every day.
Other tech shares are either being postponed, are out this week after being postponed, or just doing miserably all round. From what I can gather, that is true (to some extent) of the stock market as a whole.
If Red Hat does well this week, I would be amazed. Mind you, if it -DOES- do well this week, shareholders are likely to treat it like gold dust. If Red Hat can be one of the few tech stocks to buck the trend, expect to see them fly through the roof.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
I don't think Be's price -can- drop any lower. On the charts, it shows Be's price diving, then suddenly flattening, as if it'd hit some kind of pre-set floor. Since then, it's been sliding along the floor, with the occasional blip up followed by a drop back. The earning report can show a loss of a trillion, and the share value wouldn't flinch. There's nowhere for it to go.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
All I can say is I wish you luck, and luck to all the rest of the Red Hat investors. Personally, I think you'll need all the luck you can get, but then Red Hat might strike gold, too. That's just it - you don't know. But I do hope it goes well for you, for all my concerns.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
Doesn't necessarily mean it's the best thing to invest in. Certainly, the current share prices are rock-bottom. I'd only invest in Be if: (a) they promoted their products, for a change, (b) at least one major manufacturer invested in it, and (c) we see at least one store with BeOS on the shelves.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
$ bc -l
e(l(2) / 12)
1.05946309435929526455 [12th root of 2]
l() is natural log, e() is exponential.
Four of the reasons that you can't compete with Microsoft is that they are ruthless, effective, persistent, and have an unwavering devotion to the Pope.
And if you don't believe me, we'll have to put you into... the Comfy Chair!
IANAFA (I Am Not A Financial Advisor), but my understanding is that this practice is derisively known as "flipping" and is a good way to guarantee that you will have a much more difficult time getting in on future IPOs.
Look to: http://www.etrade.com/cgi-bin/gx.cgi/AppLogic+IPON ews?INFOTYPE=IPO_MKTW_DAILY&IPONEWSHDR=+ IPO%20News+&IPONEWSIMG=ipo_cbsmktw.gif&IPOIMAGELIN K=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsro om.htx?dist=etrade
Maurice W. Hilarius Voice: (778) 347-9907
IANAFA (I Am Not A Financial Advisor), but my understanding is that this practice is derisively known as "flipping" and is a good way to guarantee that you will have a much more difficult time getting in on future IPOs.
You're right that flipping is frowned upon, but it shouldn't be. You'd think there would be at least one person on Wall Street conversant with supply and demand...
The "bubble" phenomenon you see with hot IPOs would be *reduced* if flipping was encouraged. For every single person who watches a stock's rise and tries to sell when that rise slows, their sale itself acts to brake the excessive rise of the stock price.
If every IPO was aggressively watched by people waiting to dump their stock the moment it went up too unrealistically, well, it wouldn't go up unrealistically at all.
I didn't even get an alert. But again, thanks to /. and my paranoia, I didn't miss it. This kinda seems like yet another way ETrade is trying to screw everyone over. It's like it's policy.
Gordon
you know that all the interest in RHAT are causing the price to increase... hope they do well, cause they'll be the benchmark for va and any other linux based systems/products that are gathering speed...
three can keep a secret, if two are dead - benjamin franklin
"utter chaos"
That's that's an understatement:)
Awesome!
Agreed no one will retire... Figure you can get your hands on 1000 shares at the orginal low of $10. Lets say according to analyst 4 weeks ago (prior to the current sick wallstreet), RHAT goes up to $70 by day two.
Ok you sell, you got $70,000, you pay etrade, and pay Uncle Sam %28 YES! in taxes.
Only chance of anyone becoming a millionaire from RHAT is to invest early, continue to purchase stock as you can afford over the course of 4 or so years. During that time, bust your OpenSource coding ass:) to support them and their distribution. You gotta good chance.
What I am waiting to see is a group of Open Source coders see an opportunity and just say "Hey RHAT, will bust our ass on projectX, totally opensource, all we ask for is nnnn shares of stock". If enough coders, with the right motivation ( $$$ + freecode = happyme ) could really make a fortune, retire early, and view pron newsgroups all day:)
hehe..
Awesome!
For example, note this: "Extrinsic rewards can erode intrinsic interest. People who see themselves as working for money, approval or competitive success find their tasks less pleasurable, and therefore do not do them as well."
Yea, I find that when I am solely motivated by the posibility of being extremely wealthy, my productivity decreases, I show up to work late, I refuse to service customers.. hell I'm just a total wreck.
Sorry, just trying to ease the tension on this message board:)
Awesome!
It's a craps shoot, I signed up for about 2000, I could get em all, I could get 2, depends on how much etrade can fill my order.
-Ben
-Ben
bensmith@biz1.net
RedHat is basically the commercial face of linux. right now in the suit world linux==RedHat.
Be has such a low share of the OS market, and not a whole lot of people are talking about it, you hear more about Amiga these days than you do Be. Linux on the other hand, is everywhere, and that's good for RedHat.
Of course, maybe I'm trying to convince myself I'm right, I got alot of money riding on this thing.
-Ben
-Ben
bensmith@biz1.net
18 to 20 bucks I'd say, if it goes above that, wait to buy it in 2 weeks.
I'm just a geek, not the Amazing Creskin.
-Ben
-Ben
bensmith@biz1.net
a) they can't until silence period is over b) Intel is investing in it (sounds major to me huh? c) J&R music/computer world here in NY has BeOS on its shelves
---
well if MS is competing with redhat and redhat doesn't fight back, they'll lose. Remember, redhat is a public company so it's important what they do-not what Linus says
---
I submitted the following to Ask Slashdot earlier today but it probably won't appear
"Should RedHat cancel or postpone their IPO? IPO's in general and "internet related" (in the thinking of the general public) IPO's in
particular aren't doing as well as hoped in the past few days. If RedHat pulled their IPO and conducted a private sale just to those who got "the e-mail", could they get $15 or so per share, stockholders who would be more sympathetic with company goals that don't wring out every last penny in possible short term profits at the expense of Linux and Open Source, and an incredibly enthusistic response from people who
understand the product and the market that they could point to later on in talking with the general financial community who think that computers have pushbutton cupholders?"
I still think it's a good idea for them to be careful who they sell to.
Another possible Linux-related stock buy could be Corel. They were on CNBC today talking about a Corel Linux distro with a "Windows-like" desktop. It's explained better on their website --linux.corel.com -- but they were talking for the general public in the TV interview. This could mean come the Xmas '99 shopping season a bunch of e-Machines down at circuit city running Word Perfect and 'net surfing software on a user-friendly looking desktop with Linux underneath, selling cheaper than the iMacs and the Windows machines. World domination may be in Santa's sack.
I see even classic Slashdot is now pretty much unusable on dial up anymore.
"Now this?" Um... I'm not certain that an initial price increase is a good thing even for people who got "the letter" - sure, maybe it means that there's more hype, but it also means that even those who got "the letter" have to pay 20% more for each share to take advantage of the offer...
I did a bit of research, and for the past couple months, all the IPOs I checked on opened very close to their maximum expected offer price. The worst case was a spread of $5: max expected $25, opened at $30. Then there was one at $-7 ;-)
;-)
I'm not too worried about the price being significantly different than the expected range, nevertheless I've set a max price on my indication at $20, since I've only got $10K in that account. I did suddenly realize that I need to lower the share count frmo 500 to 498 so I can cover the commission.... D'oh. Not quite prepared/able to sell my SQNT stock (stupid forms) yet, and I'm not sure I want to. SQNT turns into IBM soon
GStreamer - The only way to stream!
WARNING! E*Trade is playing one last trick. If the stock prices outside of the "original $10-$12 range", everyone is being forced to re-sumbit their conditional order. That means you may have as little as, say, 30min (never more than 2hrs, so say the critters at E*Trade) to actually call them and re-submit it.
ELSE YOU DON'T GET YOUR STOCK!
The Slashdot people seem to be completely dropping the numerous e-mails I've been sending them, which is why I'm posting a comment here, in case anyone is still reading this. Hopefully it will show on the main page soon. If you see this, poke at the Slashdot guys so we can get this info on the front page ASAP!
GStreamer - The only way to stream!
What?
F /...
There are chances like this everyday. RedHat is just another run of the mill decent IPO. The problem is that so many of the current group of IPOs (last 6 months are so) are garbage. Short selling won't win you any friends either at any of the online brokers. They will all block you from further IPOs.
---
Openstep/NeXTSTEP/Solaris/FreeBSD/Linux/ultrix/OS
--- I do not moderate.
No, this is definitely not true. As far as I know, E*TRADE charge standard commission ($20.03 with SEC tax) on IPO sales.
Buy on the IPO day and watch the price. It should shoot up dramatically.
Keep hitting reload on the stock price. Make sure you are on a realtime quote site, not a 20 minutes delayed site.
Watch for the top of the curve. It should happen pretty soon after the stock starts trading, maybe within a couple hours. Once you see the top of the curve, sell everything you have.
Then, wait two weeks and buy as many shares back as you can.
Even if you don't get in on the bottom price you might be able to make 20% on the first day of trading. After the first day, the stock price will fall a lot, but after a couple weeks it might start climbing again.
If you lose money doing this, don't blame me, I heard it somewhere else and I have no idea how it will work.
If tits were wings it'd be flying around.
I won't be surprized if at the end of the first day of trading it's in the $80-100 range. Damn, wish I had got one of those golden letters of joy.
"The voices in my head say crazy things"
No offense, but at this point, the rule that I tend to follow is this: take what E*Trade tells you, and believe the exact opposite.
--
He's not talking about flipping. He's talking about open-market purchases on the first day. Read his first sentence: "Buy on the IPO day."
I do agree with you about flipping, if you flip, e*trade will not want to do any more IPO business with you. Consider that VA Linux, Caldera, and Linuxcare are all talking about going public. So I'm not flipping mine!
I just called -- e*trade hasn't allocated shares yet, and in fact I was able to increase the size of my Conditional Offer.
So I'm surprised that yours are allocated. The ways of IPO's are mysterious indeed.
I received the same alert, same time stamp, 10:09:23.
I'm curious about the alert. It doesn't mention that Red Hat already bumped the price once.
Those of you who understand will forgive me.
Well, I do, and yet:
I've put more than a year of full-time, 50-a-hour-a-week development time into an open source project. And it's not even done yet.
This isn't an "I'm entitled" argument. Rather, if I do get a Red Hat windfall, I'm using it to pay my rent while I put some more man-months into my project.
Also, it is definitely not a "zero-sum game". Red Hat totally fits the model of a company that needs capital to expand. As a by-product of raising money, they have to leave some money on the table. They are offering us a chance to collect some of the money on the table. It's a very positive-sum game.
... at the IPO phone number, 1-888-707-8680 ext 4263. Don't bother with the main IPO phone number.
The first time, I talked to a helpful man who transferred me to a very helpful rep who modified my limit order to $14.25 for me. I asked the rep if Red Hat as likely to change the price again, and he said "probably not". Keep in mind that Red Hat, not e*trade, determines this price.
The second time, I realized I had more $$$ in my account and I could actually buy 100 more shares. So I called again, and this time e*trade's rep told me that their computers were currently unavailable, and he would call me back when he could revise the order.
I opened every conversation by stating that I was in Red Hat's Directed Share Program, and I always used the special 6-character account number (the one I get on http://www.etrade.com/redhatipo after I log in).
Anyone who has a limit order in for less than $14, you might want to call e*trade and revise it.
It would suck if it prices above 15, because that's all I can afford. I got past the IOI on E*Trade, so I am in the running for shares, but I only have enough in my account for 100 shares at $15 or less.
COME ON RHAT! UNDER 15 PLEASE!
P.S. I have a little extra in there to cover any commission, but it is my understanding that there is no commision on an IPO. Is this true?
Have you read the essay on the GNU web site entitled, "Studies Find Reward Often No Motivator?" If not, perhaps you should, particularly if you're one of those individuals who has expressed concern over the fate of the "Linux community" because of the mixture of grass-roots hackers and for-profit businesses.
For example, note this: "Extrinsic rewards can erode intrinsic interest. People who see themselves as working for money, approval or competitive success find their tasks less pleasurable, and therefore do not do them as well."
I find this an interesting qualifier to many of the views espoused by Eric Raymond. I'm sorry, but I think that the Slashdot guys have been spending too much time with the guys in Mountain View and not enough time with the spirit of Berkeley. The minute those dollar signs appear in your eyes, you begin to lose your vision.
hackito ergo sum
The shares aren't going to be allocated until it prices. It hasn't priced, so you're shares are not allocated. They probably told you they had your indication of interest for 200.
The announcements seemed pretty clear that the 800k was for employees, friends, family (the normal groups) and also community members (the unusual thing). Most likely, the employees will get some limit based on how long they've been with the company, 200, 400, etc., and they will get preference before community members. Wouldn't be very fair if Alan Cox got 0 and some guy who summited a incorrect bug report to redhat's bugzilla got 100, would it?
Of the shares that end up with community members, if there is not enough to give everyone 100, some people will get 100 and some will get 0. The chances of anyone except employees getting more than 100 are about zilch. Only way would be if far fewer people than redhat anticipated took advantage of "the letter".
No one will get 2 or 498 as some people seem to think, everything is done in blocks of 100. Just like how ATM cells are 43 bytes, no more, no less.
I just called E*TRADE's Red Hat IPO number and was told I'd been allocated my entire request--200 shares at offering price.
I'm thinking (hoping!) that the increase in the offering price range is due to high demand.
-- R.
8/10/99 Please note, should the Red Hat IPO price above or below the original filing range of $10-12/share, E*TRADE customers will be required to submit a NEW Conditional Offer for shares. This offering has not yet been priced or declared effective. In the event that this happens, E*TRADE will update the IPO Bulletin and send an account alert to Customers who previously placed conditional Offers in this IPO.
Then just now, this appeared:
8/11/99 E*TRADE is now accepting new Conditional Offers in the Red Hat IPO. This issue has been priced at $14 and has been declared effective.
That's followed by a link to the Red Hat directed shares page. You have to fill out a new qualification questionnaire (previous answers are provided as defaults) and a new conditional offer. Entering a limit offer less than $14/share is probably not a good idea. :-)
Can anyone explain why E*TRADE is requiring new conditional offers?
-- R.
I'm certain of what they told me. I'm also (almost) certain at this point that what they told me was wrong. Oh, well.
-- R.
You think that open source software is where the future is heading, right? Put your money where your mouth is and buy shares in rhat, beos...
I was under the impression that BeOS is NOT open. It's cool like Java (buzzword compliant) not Linux (free software).
---
Put Hemos through English 101!
"An armed society is a polite society" -- Robert Heinlein
Linux MAPI Server!
http://www.openone.com/software/MailOne/
(Exchange Migration HOWTO coming soon)
I've learned from history and am not doomed to repeat the same mistakes.
;) ), While I don't think RedHat is a strong competitor yet, I see no reason for them to die anytime soon, and the longer they live the better there chances.
Actually I think you'll find that quite a few companies that seemed as solid as Microsoft have eventually failed for one reason or another( The problem with making unspecific historical generalities is that history covers an awful lot of data
anyone recommend/share any limits on when its price too expensive to buy?
some details at http://cbs. marketwatch.com/news/current/ipo_rep.htx?source=ht x/http2_mw
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
I'd hope there's a separate allocation procedure for "friends/family" -- that none of the designated shares go to other E*Trade customers unless "friends/family" don't collectively put in for at least 800,000. (I say that even though it decreases my own chances of getting in.)
Note, however, that "friends/family" also includes Red Hat people, who presumably wouldn't have to go through E*Trade to get in. Unclear how many designated shares actually will go through E*Trade. From the SEC filing:
At the request of Red Hat, the underwriters have reserved up to 800,000 shares of common stock for sale at the initial public offering price through a directed share program, to directors, officers and employees of Red Hat and to open source software developers and other persons that Red Hat believes have contributed to the success of the open source software community and the growth of Red Hat.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
IPO Bulletin
8/10/99 Please note, should the Red Hat IPO price above or below the original filing range of $10-12/share, E*TRADE customers will be required to submit a NEW Conditional Offer for shares. This offering has not yet been priced or declared effective. In the event that this happens, E*TRADE will update the IPO Bulletin and send an account alert to Customers who previously placed conditional Offers in this IPO.
E*Trade's account/trading services were down for a while today. If RHAT prices outside the range, expect utter chaos. Oy.
And no, the announcement doesn't distinguish between friends/family and others.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
Subject: Red Hat IPO Update
Please note, should the Red Hat IPO price above or below the original filing
range of $10-12/share, customers will be required to re-confirm interest in
the offering at the offering price. If this happens E*TRADE will send you
instructions on how to re-confirm interest.
This offering has not yet been priced or declared effective. E*TRADE will
update the IPO Bulletin and send an account alert with instructions in the
event that this happens.
Not sure why I should have to re-confirm if I placed a limit order higher than the offering price. OTOH, if it prices at $0.25 higher than my stated limit I'd like the opportunity to still get in.
Wednesday will have to be an international holiday for all us wannabe capitalist pigdogs to be able to deal with this.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
time to refile conditional offers
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
8/11/99 E*TRADE is now accepting new Conditional Offers in the Red Hat IPO. This issue has been priced at $14 and has been declared effective. Go Now.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
Oh yeah, it would be GREAT publicity for the open source community if someone cracked the E*Trade IPO pages. Dumbass.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
August 11, 1999 10:48:01 AM ET
[snip]
E*TRADE is now, for a limited time, accepting new Conditional Offers for Red Hat IPO shares at the E*TRADE IPO Center.
Yeah, limited time, like TOO LATE.
Why do I suspect a LOT of people are gonna be REALLY pissed?
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
Philosophical arguments aside, it seems pretty unlikely that any of us mere mortals (i.e. E*Traders) will be going into early retirement off the RHAT IPO tomorrow, even if the stock comes out like gangbusters.
A broker at E*Trade just explained the allocation procedure to me:
First, assuming you made it past the qualification questionnaire and put in a conditional offer, E*Trade reviews you for eligibility, namely that you have enough money in your account to cover however many shares you say you want.
Then E*Trade allocates 100 shares to everyone who's eligible -- if E*Trade has enough to go around. If not, the allocation is done randomly, i.e. lottery.
If there happen to be shares left over after the first round of allocations, the process is repeated until the shares are gone. But this broker says "it's very rare" that there are enough shares to give even 100 to everyone who wants some.
IOW, no matter how many shares you put in for, if you get 100 shares you'd be lucky.
I'd note that this comports with E*Trade's stated philosophy of getting IPO shares into the hands of as many desiring E*Trade customers as possible over time. It also comports with E*Trade's need to make as many $19.95 commissions as possible in any deal.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
>I would sell mine initially.
I would suggest that this is not in the best interest of the investor, RedHat or the "Linux/GNU/OpenSource/whatever" community.
1) If you are one of the lucky few who get in on the IPO, you would really be doing yourself a disservice to dump it on the first day since the immediate money you could make is far less than the potential return 10 years down the road if it takes off. Imagine how you will feel in 10 years if the value is 10x what you paid tomorrow and you sold it on the first day for a 20% gain.
2) If anyone really cares about success of this IPO, 'flipping' is not how you help. Buying the shares and watching the price and then buying some more later is good. Dumping your stock the day you buy it does not contribute to the stability of the stock. RedHat and E-Trade want the stock to appreciate in value gradually over time, not swing windly up then crash to the floor.
3) Instability in the market for open-source company IPO's will not help the compaines like VA that will go public in the future. If RedHat looks like a nightmare, the terms for future IPO could be less favorable.
I am not a financial advisor, nor am I a wildly successful day-trader. These are my opinions. Sure, I'd like to make a quick buck as much as anybody. I'd like to make a lot more bucks over the long-haul and see the companies I like become successful in the industry, which - like it or not - sometimes depends on their track record in the market.
Mike
You can never have too much RAM or too much disk space. --Ancient American Proverb, circa 1980
Absolutely.
Add to that (or to summarize):
1. Buy for the long term.
2. Buy what you know.
I need an APC pickup!
If there is a high demand for shares the IPO price will inflate prematurly with correspondance to the high demand.. then will dive by the end .. up short down in a day || at most two-> time to buy
Tommorow boys and girls!! yay! can it beat Be??
http://www.zdnet.com/z dnn/stories/news/0,4586,2310662,00.html
The poor performance of IPO's in the market recently might make this a good time for Redhat's IPO, from the investors' standpoint, inluding IPO buyers, and investors in the secondary market. If it opens lower, because of market performance, that just leaves more room for profit when it inevitably shoots up. There is a *lot* of interest in the redhat stock. Everyone from HP to SGI to IBM is supporting linux, and thus supporting redhat, indirectly, if not directly. Get in while you can. This timing might be your chance to catch it at a temporarily lower price.
-Larry
...These aren't the droids you're looking for....Move along....
A friend of mine is playing with the redhat stock...Got accepted by etrade for the IPO...I hope he makes a nice hefty profit, so he can put a nice chunk into VA Linux System's IPO, a few months from now. VA is waiting to see what happens to redhat. Expect to see the IPO announcement in the next week or two, if redhat does well. You can quote me on this.
...These aren't the droids you're looking for....Move along....
Hey, I submitted this earlier today. Stupid lousy rotten luck.
For more information, click here.
I got an alert at 10:09PM which said that a new pricing plan would require a new indication of interest.
-russ
Don't piss off The Angry Economist
*Any* time I freely exchange something with someone else, that is not zero-sum, because we both value the other thing higher. Even if I change a $1 bill for four quarters, that is not zero-sum. Why? Because I wouldn't have bothered unless I valued the four quarters more than a $1 bill.
Does it take time and effort to track the IPO? Yes. It's not free money; it cost me time to write the free software in the first place, and it's costing me time to buy the stock. Oh well, I've decided that it's still a better return per hour than the time I spend programming.
-russ
Don't piss off The Angry Economist
It's the top-rated one according to Red Herring. So everyone's watching.
...
Hey, if more people bail from the IPO, then I can get more shares! C'mon, people, I need 4000 shares - that's just 40 of you
Will in Seattle
However, first they will fill up the first 100 shares of all those who stay in >bail,bailplease,please - so everyone has the same chance of getting 100 shares, but a lesser chance of getting more.
...
And if you don't have enough cash for the first 100 shares, you're bumped. Hope you've got $1430 in your account
Will in Seattle
Of course, you probably won't get another IPO, but you're a coder, so who cares? And friends and family don't play by the rules anyway.
Part of this is that the IPO allows people to provide supply for trading. You don't want the spread between bid and ask to get too big, or it superheats. As a seller, you want the spread to get to bid, but for efficient market forces, you need a roughly equal supply of buyers and sellers.
Since the institutionals will bleed it off in tiny dribbles, in some ways you're helping out by selling at your own prices.
Just don't try to do a limit buy the first day, it probably won't execute.
Will in Seattle
I just did, to see if my order for 4000 shares was still ok at the higher price range of $12-$14 and was told they'll just reduce the amount of shares up to the money market amount. But it's a good idea to phone, especially if you put in a limit.
...
If you don't have enough in your account in a few hours, oops. Hope for a $12 pricing.
Now I need to see how many we get on the family trust account (not through E*Trade)
Will in Seattle
Excellent! That means I've got a shot at my full allocation of 4000.
Will in Seattle
MSFT is competing with Linux, but, as Linus said in the interview (posted today on Upside), we define the battlefield. Float like a bee, sting like a horde of butterflies ...
OTOH, MSFT will make money for the next 2-3 years, guaranteed.
Will in Seattle
I had to go through the standard IPO route myself.
I was told they should show up tomorrow, before Noon PST (3PM EST).
Will in Seattle
Yup, me too.
But then I phoned them and talked to a broker.
No messages since then.
Will in Seattle
Exactly. By selling, you capitalize the earned wealth as income. And pay capital gains. Which goes to Black\\\\\Fixing Ops\\\Roads and paying off the national debt.
Look, you could live in almost any other country and you'd pay higher taxes, so don't complain. If you don't want to be taxed, don't realize your increased wealth.
Will in Seattle
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990810/37.html
Of course, everyone has been paying more attention to RedHat, and ignoring the other IPOs (who are they, anyways?). They may soar then plumment, but they hopefully won't drop like a brick, then forever sink....
Wow. I think the one that has really gotten people's attention is RedHat.
(either that or it's just me)
And hotjobs.com? Didn't they JUST start up a little while ago (just before the superbowl? or are they not that new?)
"Better yet, make periodic investments in two or three stock-based mutual funds, at least until you have a portfolio of at least $100K. You really can't get adequate diversification buying single stocks if you only have a few thousand dollars to invest."
Well, I can't speak for everyone, but I put $3000 in an ETrade account 2 years ago, and now it's sitting at around $12k, but briefly hit $17k. Over the same period of time, I put $10k in mutual funds, and they are now sitting at $11k. Maybe I'm just crappy at picking mutual funds...
Mike
Mike van Lammeren
It will challenge your head, your brain, and your mind.
Don't think of the stock market as a place where experts decide the appropriate price for stocks. Think of it as more like Family Feud, as in "Name the 7 continents--top 10 answers on the board!" You have to figure out what some fucking idiot thinks is a continent. Arctica? The stock market is more like a place where people with money try to outguess other people's moves, however stupid, and beat them to it. Few of these people know what slashdot readers know about Linux, open source, etc.
Internet stocks are slumping right now, because that's the buzz that's going around the lemming herd of stock brokers. For now. Next month Tom Cruise will be wearing a red hat on Entertainment Tonight, and everyone will run out and buy rhat shares, or Bill Clinton will be overheard talking about open sores on his privates, and someone will think that he is holding open source stock in his private portfolio, and away we go!
You're smarter than average, right? You think that Red Hat is a good company, right? You think that open source software is where the future is heading, right? Put your money where your mouth is and buy shares in rhat, beos, etc., then hold onto them until you retire. I'm 29 years old, so the worst case scenario for me is retiring in 36 years. Just about every stock is going up sometime in the next 36 years, so I'm picking cool ones. What about you?
Mike van Lammeren
It will challenge your head, your brain, and your mind.
As someone else here said, in the minds of many suits, "Red Hat" == "Linux". Those are the guys that drive the price.
Now if only I could take advantage of this. [sigh]
The cake is a pie
Read it all at: MarketWatch
Just got off the phone with E*Trade. The people seemed genuinely apologetic...but yes, folks, we must ONCE AGAIN camp out on the site and RE-SUBMIT our info if we wish to get in on the RH IPO. AND...we may be TURNED DOWN even if we were approved the FIRST time, if the amazing Powers that Be determine that the extra $2/share will break our little banks.
Oh, and it MAY NOT EVEN BE TODAY.
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRR....the little man will NEVER win.
I have a DAY JOB, folks...I can't park all day! What the hell IS this? (very frustrated now)
Oh, btw...I have excellent mood music in the 'puter CD player right now...for this situation, I recommend "Halber Mensch" by Einsturzende Neubauten. Annoying, jarring, LOUD, and edgy...makes me grateful that my German is bad enough where I DON'T understand the lyrics...
I just got an email from my broker which stated: "There is no indication that the offering is going public today. Call me after 11 AM to discuss"
Can someone please let me know what's going on?
Also, has anyone found a place on the net that will auto-email you the instant RedHat hits the street (whenever that is)? I'd rather wait for an email than have to hit -reload all morning.
Thanks...
I like how the ticker symbol (RHAT) sounds out to be "Rat".
:)
Great marketing
Yes, this is true. But, when is the next time that you can honestly see yourself getting in on an IPO with as much publicity and chance of springing quickly as Redhat?
The average investor never gets a chance like this... and while E-Trade and various other internet brokers out there will put some IPO shares in a lottery pool, even if you do luckily get one, there is a high probability that it will be a dud.
I would sell mine initially.
Here is a quick list that i found.
COMPANY SIZE(MLN) RANGE UNDERWRITER TRADEDATE
InterWorld 3.0 15 Invemed PRICED
U S Interactive 4.615 10 Lehman PRICED
Braun Consulting 4 7 DLJ PRICED
Hotjobs.com 3.0 8 1 DB Alex PRICED
Garden.com 4.1 11-13 Hambrecht Aug11
Mortgage.com 7.5 10-12 CSFB Aug11
NETsilicon 5.0 8-10 CIBC Aug11
Red Hat 6.0 12-14 Goldman Aug11
Women.com 3.75 10-12 MorganSt Aug11
NetScout Systems 4.0 14-16 DB Alex Aug12
Blockbuster 31.0 16-18 Salomon Aug11
IXNet 7.5 18-20 Salomon Aug11
Quest Software 4.4 12-14 BancBoston Aug12
FirstAmerica Auto 7.84 12-14 Merrill Aug12
Bamboo.com 5.0 10-12 Prudential Aug12
Active Software 4.0 10-12 Goldman Aug13
LookSmart 12 11-12 Goldman Aug13
Tunes.com 4.0 13-15 Salomon Aug13
Medscape 5.4 11-13 DLJ Aug13
Luminant 12.6 11-13 DB Alex Aug13
Alliance Resource 8.97 19-21 Salmon Aug13
Rockford Corp. 3.4 11-13 DainRaucher wkAug9
US Interactive 5.2 10-12 Lehman eawkAug9
ftd.com 5.5 13-15 Bear eamidwkAug9
AverStar 4.0 7-9 Bear midltwkAug6
Cortelco Systems 3.12 10-12 JPMorgan ltwkAug9
Opensite Tech 3.68 10-12 Hambrecht ltwkAug9
Interactive Intelligence 2.67 11-13 Merrill midAug
Greatfood.com 2.5 10.5-13.5 WRHambrecht midAug
Lionbridge Tech 4.0 12-14 Prudential midAug
Loislaw.com $75max Prudential midAug
Headhunter.net TBA FirstUnion midAug
Riva Bancshares 3.0 10-12 CIBC wkAug16
Healthgate Data 4.6 10-12 SGCowen wkAug16
Airgate $100max DLJ wkAug16
Webstakes.com 3.575 13-15 Bear wkAug16
MyPoints.com 5.0 10-12 BancBoston wkAug16
Imagex.com 4.0 12-14 Volpe wkAug16
Duraswitch 3.0 8-9 Cruttenden wkAug16
NovaMed DLJ Aug17
Netro Corp 5.0 7-9 Merrill Aug19
LaBranche 11.5 15-17 Salomon Aug19
Therma-Wave 3.3 10-12 BancofAmerica Aug
Gen Trak TBA 10 Barron Aug
Daleen Tech $57 BancBoston Aug
Jore 3.8 9-11 DADavidson Aug
Tunes.com 4.0 13-15 Salomon Aug
PurchasePro.com 4.0 11-13 Prudential ltAug
Ecollege.com TBA BancofAmer Aug/Sept
E2Net.com $173max DB Alex eaSept
Cybergold 4.0 9-11 SG Cowen Sept
Nelson Comms TBA SGCowen Sept
PCQuote.com 5.8 12-14 Prudential Sept
ITXC 5.4 13-15 Lehman Sept
Williams Comms $750max Lehman Sept
Yesmail.com 3.4 11-13 DB Alex midSept
Oratec $48.9 Merrill wkSep20
Advanstar 14.0 12.5-16.5 Merrill wkSep20
Predictive Systems $52nax BancBoston Sep23
Planet.Rx $69mln Goldman wkSep27
Charter Comm $3.45bln Goldman wkSep27
Spinnaker $125max CSFB wkSep27
United Parcel $3bln MorganSt Nov
Great reply.
Trying to "outguess" the market has repeatedly and repeatedly been shown to be a losing game.
Investing in quality companies over the long haul has repeatedly been shown to be a winning strategy, and the best possible way of staying well ahaed of inflation.
Over the long term, a company's share price is directly related to that company's performance. Because, as stated above, afterall... these are shares of the actual company that you own!
1) If you are one of the lucky few who get in on the IPO, you would really be doing yourself a disservice to
dump it on the first day since the immediate money you could make is far less than the potential return 10
years down the road if it takes off. Imagine how you will feel in 10 years if the value is 10x what you paid
tomorrow and you sold it on the first day for a 20% gain.
Selling initially does not prevent you from buying the shares back in the near future when the volume has settled down. If you believe RHAT to be a good long term investment, by all means, by the shares back and profit with them over the long haul.
However, over the past two decades, the average annual return of even the successful IPO's has only been 5%. This is pretty dismal, especially considering how wonderfully the overall market had performed during that span of time.
2) If anyone really cares about success of this IPO, 'flipping' is not how you help. Buying the shares and
watching the price and then buying some more later is good. Dumping your stock the day you buy it does
not contribute to the stability of the stock. RedHat and E-Trade want the stock to appreciate in value
gradually over time, not swing windly up then crash to the floor.
What slashdot readers decide to do with their shares is going to have absolutely no effect on the stability of RHAT's opening. The majority of the recepients at the offering price are institutional investors and high net worth individuals who do not give a damn about RHAT's mission satement.
3) Instability in the market for open-source company IPO's will not help the compaines like VA that will go
public in the future. If RedHat looks like a nightmare, the terms for future IPO could be less favorable.
Once again, this is simply what has happened to virtually Every IPO that has come out over the past 3 years. There is nothing wrong with a slashdot reader/linux supporter in trying to make some money on a market swing. If you believe in the company, buy your shares back once it settles down (or even better, more).
Except for that rare breed of first wave internet stocks, buying and holding IPO's is a way to lose money. No matter how great the idea behind the company is.
That is also true... 90% of the paid experts that manage these mutual funds can not even beat the market averages over a significant period of time.
There are numerous reasons for this, but I do not want to go into them (unless someone challenges me, never can resist that), as it is way past the time for me to go home now!
more wealth on one plastic disc of linux
real wealth is in a linux cd
I think this is a little on the idealistic side.
While I would love it if I had contributed to Linux, and I had the opportunity to watch my "seeds" grow and change with the times... I think a great deal of *real* satisfaction can be taken from watchig "cash" grow. For many people, cash does not merely reproduce more of itself, it reproduces opportunities for those who might not have had many.
There are a lot of people who have invested cash, watched it grow, and then used that money to benefit society... I am sure they have taken a great amount of satisfaction in that, and they should.
The advantage of reproducing cash is that you have the power to decide what it is used for (minus taxes). In the right hands, this is a wonderful thing
There are over 40 IPO's slated to come out this week alone. There were 30 last week. Many analysts have ventured that this huge slur of initial and public offerings is partly to blame for the recent poor performance of internet (which leads to tech, which leads to the rest of the market) stocks.
I think this is a bad time for Redhat to be coming out... they are going to be (unfairly) grouped with all the countless "dot" coms that are coming, and I am afraid it may fair poorly.
You really can't get
adequate diversification buying single stocks if you only have a few thousand dollars to invest.
I would argue that you can. Many companies are like mutual funds in themselves. Take companies like Clorox, Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris, Coca Cola, Disney, G.E., IBM and AT&T.
The amount of diversification within these companies is staggering... plus, the majority of them have huge operations overseas, meaning you get the benefits of a foreign fund as well!
For instance, everyone knows Philip Morris makes cigarretes (which include Marlboro, Benson & Hedges, Virginia Slims, Merit, Parliament, L&M, Chesterfield, Lark and Basic to name a few), but did you also know that Philip Morris owns:
Coffees (Maxim, Maxwell House, Sanka, and various Starbucks brands)
Soft Drinks (Capri Sun, Country Time, Chrystal Lite, Kool-Aid and Tang)
Post Cereals
Condiments & Sauces (such as Bull's Eye Barbecue and Miracle Whip)
Altoids, Jell-O, Shake N' Bake, Minute Rice, Toblerone, Stove Top Stuffing, Loius Rich Meat,
Claussen pickles
Oscar Mayer
Kraft Foods
Numerous cheeses (Philadelphia, Velveeta, Cracker Barrel, Di Giorno)
Pizza (Di Giorno's, Tombstone and Jack's)
Oh, and they also own some beers you might know (Miller brewing company, Foster's, Molson, Red Dog, Icehouse, Mickey's, Olde English, Meister Brau, Leinenkugals, Celis, Shipyard, Sharps and Magnum)
Have i made my point? because I could go on...
Plus, with individual stocks, you do not have to pay the year to year fees, on top of year to year capital gains taxes.
You don't. Not until it's been priced. Which it hasn't been yet. The *range* of possible prices has gone up. This means very little about the actual price sometimes: it is not entirely unheard of for a $8-$10 suggested offering to actually be priced at $20. [This is a specific example from last week's IPO offerings, but the actual data has disappeared from this weeks "current offerings" list.]
Of course, in the current market climate Red Hat would seem to be rather foolish to jack the price up substantially. Most IPOs are going out priced under their ranges this week. OTOH, Red Hat seems to be pretty cocky about their chances for success -- they're hot and everyone knows it.
[
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/headlines.htx?sour ce=htx/http2_mw
Well as i stated yesterday, the price has been raised again, but it looks like this time closer to 20. Etrade now has all our money and it takes about 2 weeks to get it back, because no ipo can be purchased on margin. there is no fees for ipos. If someone can help me crack their ipo pages i will greatly appreciate it. All they are doing is changing a single three digit number. we should see the price by 9 o'clock california time.