Interestingly enough, in a way the PicturePhone idea has become reality, thanks to broadband Internet and the availability of video cameras that plug into the USB port. Also, the recent advances in cellphone technology has allowed people to send pictures from cameras built into cellphones.
The sad part about IBM's Micro Channel design was that if IBM had been a bit more liberal with their licensing policy, they would have succeeded in wiping out the ISA bus within 6-7 years. What was interesting is that IBM demonstrated expansions to Micro Channel that in theory could have made the whole idea of a high-speed bus interface for graphics cards superfluous.
I think the original idea of push downloads didn't work because of bandwidth limitations of the day (e.g., in 1997 the V.90 standard had not been standardized yet).
However, with the advent of web accelerators for dialup and with wider broadband access, there will be a return of push downloads, but only in a very targeted form (for example, ESPN Motion on ESPN's website). There are a few examples of push downloads that managed to survive, namely small windows for real-time news and weather information.
I've heard that improved recording techniques that several hard drive companies are working on will make it possible to have 400 GB two-platter 1/3 height 3.5" hard drives fairly soon. There's still a lot of disk recording technology that has not yet been fully exploited yet.
The combo DirecTV/TiVo units already do this. They get the program listings over the satellite. The phone is only used for recording pay-per-view transactions, for downloading software updates, and perhaps a few other things.
I think it's theoretically possible to have TiVo work on a one-way data connection since what you really need is program listing updates and updates to the software, which can be transmitted as a piggyback signal to the standard broadcast signal at preset intervals. You do need two-way communication if you're updating access to premium content from cable and satellite TV, though.
1. I think projection TV's are going to be an interesting race between OLED and new generation "slimline" rear-projection TV's that use DLP, LCD or LCOS technologies. Plasma displays (in my humble opinion) will become a passing fad due to the fact that plasma TV's tend to lose picture quality after a few years of use.
2. PVR's will become much more common in the next few years, especially with the lowering of hardware costs and the increasing capacity of hard disk drives (TiVo PVR's with 400 GB hard drives could arrive within 24 months). Also, what we may see PVR's do fairly soon is updating programming information using data piggybacked on a broadcast signal instead of having to "call back" using a telephone line or an Ethernet connection.
I personally think Microsoft will be around for some time to come.
The reason is simple: the massive software and hardware support for Microsoft operating systems. I mean think about it: the bundled software packages that comes with some of today's most popular items for computer geeks--namely digital still cameras and MiniDV/MicroDV digital camcorders--support mostly Windows and (increasingly) MacOS X. You don't see Linux driver/application software for these devices bundled on the CD-ROM provided by the camera or camcorder maker, that's to be sure.
I will say Linux has finally made it when something like the Casio EXILIM EX-Z4U digital still camera (with its camera docking cradle) includes Linux software to download and process images from the camcorder.
The "Face on Mars" has already been definitively debunked.
I would most likely agree with your assessment, but let's have independent, verifiable proof from the ESA-controlled Mars Express using the stereoscopic high-resolution camera and IR imager to finally put this somewhat looney idea to rest once and for all.
Your starting point should be at least an AMD Athlon XP 2200+ or Intel Pentium 4 2.53 GHz based system with at least 512 MB of system RAM (you might want to spring for a full 1024 MB of system RAM).
This especially true if you are going to edit image files from your digital camera or edit video files from your MiniDV/MicroDV camcorder; such editing places very major demands on sheer CPU processing power, and a fast enough CPU will make for a much more pleasant multimedia editing experience.
Actually, "most" of us need far less than a 1 ghz cpu. Most people I know could get by nicely with a 3-500 mhz celeron, for what they use their computers for.
That might be true up till recently, but the increasing integration of digital still cameras and MiniDV/MicroDV camcorders with computers has finally forced many users to upgrade to far faster machines. Still-image processing and editing videos downloaded from camcorders nowadays make MAJOR demands on CPU processing power; with the price of computers running the AMD Athlon XP 2000+ or slightly faster CPU being very inexpensive nowadays, anyone who wants to "grow" into digital multimedia would be advised to get the fastest machine they can afford.
Hey, at least the Mars Express orbiter is functional and working.
Once it's in its proper orbit (which will take about 4-5 months of propellent burns to adjust the orbit to its final configuration), Mars Express will use its multiple on-board sensors to look at everything on Mars from orbit.
Primarily, I think the orbiter will do the following:
1. Look for underground water by studying the IR emissions from the planet surface.
2. Use its on-board imaging radar to look at subsurface features up to 3,000 meters under the planet surface.
3. Use its stereoscopic-view camera to look at various Martian features.
With these three capabilities, one thing Mars Express might do is the help put the issue of the so-called anomalies of Mars (as proposed by Richard C. Hoagload) to rest. Especially important is the High/Super Resolution Camera (HSRC), which will image surface features in stereoscopic view. It will be very interesting to see what the anomalies of the Cydonia Plain look like from Mars Express orbital imaging using both HSRC and the on-board IR sensors. (Personally, we really won't settle this issue until the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter--which will have extremely high-resolution cameras--arrives at Mars in late 2005.)
Given the fact that the Mars Express orbiter is not exactly in an optimum orbit to regularly pick up Beagle 2 signals, we'll probably have to wait some time before the orbiter can try to regularly access the lander.
I think NASA will try to contact Beagle 2 using the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey 2001 orbiters over the next two weeks or so, since with the right orbital mechanics they might be able to send and receive a signal to get Beagle 2 running. Also, given the power output of the Beagle 2 signal transmitter, finding it even with radio telescopes on Earth is still a very iffy proposition.
However, the Russians tried several times in the 1970's with their Mars series of Mars probes. Their big mistake was to have completely automated landing of the lander, which proved to be a debacle because the Mars 3 lander arrived at Mars right in the middle of one of the largest dust storms ever recorded on that planet--the lander never had a chance. =(
Given that we're getting dust storms on the planet right now I wouldn't be surprised if Beagle 2 was damaged beyond repair due to the dust storms. This does not bode well for the two upcoming NASA landers, since these dust storms can last for three to five months.
I think what may have happened to Beagle 2 was that it may have been damaged by the dust storms that are occurring on the planet right now.
Does anyone remember the Mars 3 probe the Soviets launched in the early 1970's? It had the unfortunate experience of trying to put a lander on Mars in a completely automated manner right in the middle of one of the worst planet-wide dust storms to hit the planet and the probe never functioned properly after landing. We were very fortunate that the two Viking landers and Mars Pathfinder landed on Mars during periods of benign weather on the planet.
Because these dust storms can last for three to five months, I do have major concerns that the two upcoming NASA landers may suffer the same fate as Beagle 2--trying to land in a major dust storm. =(
(By the way, one of reasons why the two Viking landers succeeded was that they stay attached to the Viking orbiter until after orbit insertion. That allowed NASA engineers to carefully look at landing sites with the orbiter cameras to find a safe landing spot. If Mars Express had been designed this way they probably would have not allowed Beagle 2 to land until the dust storms on the planet subsided.)
I think Intel is secretly working on using diamond material in circuit design which may make possible a quantum leap in speeds for the CPU. Can you say 50 GHz clock speed for a CPU within six years?:-)
While it appears that the Beagle 2 probe is on the right flight profile to make it to the Martian surface, the fact there are increasing dust storms on the planet's surface could hinder the operation of the probe. Beagle 2 could suffer the same fate as the Soviet Mars 3 lander, which made it to the surface but failed after 20 seconds of transmitting data due to the dust storm on Mars at the time.:-(
I think the major reason why we're seeing a major return of "epic" films is the fact with modern CGI technology you can replicate things like major battle scenes or crowd scenes relatively cheaply.
Does anyone remember Cleopatra (1962), which essentially bankrupted 20th Century Fox because of its US$44 million cost in 1962 dollars? (That would be equivalent of around US$500 million in 2003.) Some of the scenes in that movie was exorbitantly expensive to do, especially the scene of Cleopatra entering Rome (everything you saw on-screen was REAL, including that huge background crowd). Today, that scene would be done mostly with blue-screened sets and CGI-generated backgrounds, which is vastly less expensive to do (remember Gladiator from a couple of years ago?).
It is the development of high-quality CGI that made the Lord of the Rings movies look so "epic" in the first place.
While much of the Minas Tirith shots were done on that 1/72 scale model, a good number of these shots were done in CGI, especially when you zoom into the city street scenes.
It's still pretty amazing work, in my humble opinion.:-)
Sad to say, S3's new DeltaChrome technology is just a bit too late to the game to compete against ATI and nVidia. The only way S3 can compete is to price their cards at an extremely attractive price; if they don't do it, S3 will not be able to take marketshare from graphics cards that use ATI's and nVidia's lower-end graphics chips.
What especially impressed me about the CGI effects in RoTK was how they did the entire city of Minas Tirith. It's as if Alan Lee's and John Howe's paintings have literally come to life; the folks at WETA Digital should take a bow at how they integrated real scenes, models and CGI all into one. Just that is good reason why RoTK will win the Best Visual Effects Oscar.:-)
Unfortunately, I seriously doubt the Carmack-sponsored Armadillo Aerospace effort will fly the X-Prize flight profile before Scaled Composites does it first. Mostly because SpaceShipOne is already in flight testing and has already demonstrated actual powered flight with a rocket attached.
I'll guess that Paul Allen's support for this project is no more than US$25 million, chump change for someone as rich as Allen.
I think what may finally bring broadband Internet access to rural areas is essentially a development of WiFi wireless networking called WiMax.
Since WiMax has a range up to 30 miles and the ability to support thousands of users per connection point, this may finally make it possible to put up WiMax antennas out in rural areas, which eliminates pretty much the last mile connection issue for broadband Internet access.
I think we really don't need to implement broadband Internet over powerlines anyway.
The development of WiMax wireless networking technology (WiMax is essentially a development of 802.11 WiFi wireless networking that has a range up to 30 miles and supports thousands of users easily) could make the whole idea of BPL superfluous in the long run. With WiMax's long range, this makes it possible to expand broadband Internet to places where stringing out copper and/or optical fiber wires out to the customer site is not economically practical.
Actually, I'm glad that Microsoft is finally retiring Windows 98.
Given that most machines built since late 1997 in the ATX form factor use at least 168-pin SDRAM to expand system memory to 384 MB or more, many of them could run even Windows 2000 Professional relatively fast (I'm running a Celeron 500 MHz machine with 384 MB of RAM installed and Win2K Pro runs decently fast, thank you very much!). Besides, once you install Service Pack 4 and all subsequent patches Win2K Pro is actually a very stable OS, far more stable than Windows 98.
Actually, the environmentalists SHOULD support this idea.
Between getting a lot of road traffic off Interstate 15 between Los Angeles and Las Vegas and also reducing the need for air travel between Los Angeles and Las Vegas (imagine 375-450 passengers per train leaving four times per hour from Los Angeles to Las Vegas), that means a lot less air pollution from automobiles, buses and jet airliners.
Slashdot Mirror
Interestingly enough, in a way the PicturePhone idea has become reality, thanks to broadband Internet and the availability of video cameras that plug into the USB port. Also, the recent advances in cellphone technology has allowed people to send pictures from cameras built into cellphones.
The sad part about IBM's Micro Channel design was that if IBM had been a bit more liberal with their licensing policy, they would have succeeded in wiping out the ISA bus within 6-7 years. What was interesting is that IBM demonstrated expansions to Micro Channel that in theory could have made the whole idea of a high-speed bus interface for graphics cards superfluous.
I think the original idea of push downloads didn't work because of bandwidth limitations of the day (e.g., in 1997 the V.90 standard had not been standardized yet).
However, with the advent of web accelerators for dialup and with wider broadband access, there will be a return of push downloads, but only in a very targeted form (for example, ESPN Motion on ESPN's website). There are a few examples of push downloads that managed to survive, namely small windows for real-time news and weather information.
I've heard that improved recording techniques that several hard drive companies are working on will make it possible to have 400 GB two-platter 1/3 height 3.5" hard drives fairly soon. There's still a lot of disk recording technology that has not yet been fully exploited yet.
The combo DirecTV/TiVo units already do this. They get the program listings over the satellite. The phone is only used for recording pay-per-view transactions, for downloading software updates, and perhaps a few other things.
I think it's theoretically possible to have TiVo work on a one-way data connection since what you really need is program listing updates and updates to the software, which can be transmitted as a piggyback signal to the standard broadcast signal at preset intervals. You do need two-way communication if you're updating access to premium content from cable and satellite TV, though.
Two comments:
1. I think projection TV's are going to be an interesting race between OLED and new generation "slimline" rear-projection TV's that use DLP, LCD or LCOS technologies. Plasma displays (in my humble opinion) will become a passing fad due to the fact that plasma TV's tend to lose picture quality after a few years of use.
2. PVR's will become much more common in the next few years, especially with the lowering of hardware costs and the increasing capacity of hard disk drives (TiVo PVR's with 400 GB hard drives could arrive within 24 months). Also, what we may see PVR's do fairly soon is updating programming information using data piggybacked on a broadcast signal instead of having to "call back" using a telephone line or an Ethernet connection.
I personally think Microsoft will be around for some time to come.
The reason is simple: the massive software and hardware support for Microsoft operating systems. I mean think about it: the bundled software packages that comes with some of today's most popular items for computer geeks--namely digital still cameras and MiniDV/MicroDV digital camcorders--support mostly Windows and (increasingly) MacOS X. You don't see Linux driver/application software for these devices bundled on the CD-ROM provided by the camera or camcorder maker, that's to be sure.
I will say Linux has finally made it when something like the Casio EXILIM EX-Z4U digital still camera (with its camera docking cradle) includes Linux software to download and process images from the camcorder.
The "Face on Mars" has already been definitively debunked.
I would most likely agree with your assessment, but let's have independent, verifiable proof from the ESA-controlled Mars Express using the stereoscopic high-resolution camera and IR imager to finally put this somewhat looney idea to rest once and for all.
Your starting point should be at least an AMD Athlon XP 2200+ or Intel Pentium 4 2.53 GHz based system with at least 512 MB of system RAM (you might want to spring for a full 1024 MB of system RAM).
This especially true if you are going to edit image files from your digital camera or edit video files from your MiniDV/MicroDV camcorder; such editing places very major demands on sheer CPU processing power, and a fast enough CPU will make for a much more pleasant multimedia editing experience.
Actually, "most" of us need far less than a 1 ghz cpu. Most people I know could get by nicely with a 3-500 mhz celeron, for what they use their computers for.
That might be true up till recently, but the increasing integration of digital still cameras and MiniDV/MicroDV camcorders with computers has finally forced many users to upgrade to far faster machines. Still-image processing and editing videos downloaded from camcorders nowadays make MAJOR demands on CPU processing power; with the price of computers running the AMD Athlon XP 2000+ or slightly faster CPU being very inexpensive nowadays, anyone who wants to "grow" into digital multimedia would be advised to get the fastest machine they can afford.
Hey, at least the Mars Express orbiter is functional and working.
Once it's in its proper orbit (which will take about 4-5 months of propellent burns to adjust the orbit to its final configuration), Mars Express will use its multiple on-board sensors to look at everything on Mars from orbit.
Primarily, I think the orbiter will do the following:
1. Look for underground water by studying the IR emissions from the planet surface.
2. Use its on-board imaging radar to look at subsurface features up to 3,000 meters under the planet surface.
3. Use its stereoscopic-view camera to look at various Martian features.
With these three capabilities, one thing Mars Express might do is the help put the issue of the so-called anomalies of Mars (as proposed by Richard C. Hoagload) to rest. Especially important is the High/Super Resolution Camera (HSRC), which will image surface features in stereoscopic view. It will be very interesting to see what the anomalies of the Cydonia Plain look like from Mars Express orbital imaging using both HSRC and the on-board IR sensors. (Personally, we really won't settle this issue until the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter--which will have extremely high-resolution cameras--arrives at Mars in late 2005.)
Thanks for the clarification.
Given the fact that the Mars Express orbiter is not exactly in an optimum orbit to regularly pick up Beagle 2 signals, we'll probably have to wait some time before the orbiter can try to regularly access the lander.
I think NASA will try to contact Beagle 2 using the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey 2001 orbiters over the next two weeks or so, since with the right orbital mechanics they might be able to send and receive a signal to get Beagle 2 running. Also, given the power output of the Beagle 2 signal transmitter, finding it even with radio telescopes on Earth is still a very iffy proposition.
However, the Russians tried several times in the 1970's with their Mars series of Mars probes. Their big mistake was to have completely automated landing of the lander, which proved to be a debacle because the Mars 3 lander arrived at Mars right in the middle of one of the largest dust storms ever recorded on that planet--the lander never had a chance. =(
Given that we're getting dust storms on the planet right now I wouldn't be surprised if Beagle 2 was damaged beyond repair due to the dust storms. This does not bode well for the two upcoming NASA landers, since these dust storms can last for three to five months.
Folks,
I think what may have happened to Beagle 2 was that it may have been damaged by the dust storms that are occurring on the planet right now.
Does anyone remember the Mars 3 probe the Soviets launched in the early 1970's? It had the unfortunate experience of trying to put a lander on Mars in a completely automated manner right in the middle of one of the worst planet-wide dust storms to hit the planet and the probe never functioned properly after landing. We were very fortunate that the two Viking landers and Mars Pathfinder landed on Mars during periods of benign weather on the planet.
Because these dust storms can last for three to five months, I do have major concerns that the two upcoming NASA landers may suffer the same fate as Beagle 2--trying to land in a major dust storm. =(
(By the way, one of reasons why the two Viking landers succeeded was that they stay attached to the Viking orbiter until after orbit insertion. That allowed NASA engineers to carefully look at landing sites with the orbiter cameras to find a safe landing spot. If Mars Express had been designed this way they probably would have not allowed Beagle 2 to land until the dust storms on the planet subsided.)
I think Intel is secretly working on using diamond material in circuit design which may make possible a quantum leap in speeds for the CPU. Can you say 50 GHz clock speed for a CPU within six years? :-)
While it appears that the Beagle 2 probe is on the right flight profile to make it to the Martian surface, the fact there are increasing dust storms on the planet's surface could hinder the operation of the probe. Beagle 2 could suffer the same fate as the Soviet Mars 3 lander, which made it to the surface but failed after 20 seconds of transmitting data due to the dust storm on Mars at the time. :-(
I think the major reason why we're seeing a major return of "epic" films is the fact with modern CGI technology you can replicate things like major battle scenes or crowd scenes relatively cheaply.
Does anyone remember Cleopatra (1962), which essentially bankrupted 20th Century Fox because of its US$44 million cost in 1962 dollars? (That would be equivalent of around US$500 million in 2003.) Some of the scenes in that movie was exorbitantly expensive to do, especially the scene of Cleopatra entering Rome (everything you saw on-screen was REAL, including that huge background crowd). Today, that scene would be done mostly with blue-screened sets and CGI-generated backgrounds, which is vastly less expensive to do (remember Gladiator from a couple of years ago?).
It is the development of high-quality CGI that made the Lord of the Rings movies look so "epic" in the first place.
While much of the Minas Tirith shots were done on that 1/72 scale model, a good number of these shots were done in CGI, especially when you zoom into the city street scenes.
:-)
It's still pretty amazing work, in my humble opinion.
Sad to say, S3's new DeltaChrome technology is just a bit too late to the game to compete against ATI and nVidia. The only way S3 can compete is to price their cards at an extremely attractive price; if they don't do it, S3 will not be able to take marketshare from graphics cards that use ATI's and nVidia's lower-end graphics chips.
What especially impressed me about the CGI effects in RoTK was how they did the entire city of Minas Tirith. It's as if Alan Lee's and John Howe's paintings have literally come to life; the folks at WETA Digital should take a bow at how they integrated real scenes, models and CGI all into one. Just that is good reason why RoTK will win the Best Visual Effects Oscar. :-)
Unfortunately, I seriously doubt the Carmack-sponsored Armadillo Aerospace effort will fly the X-Prize flight profile before Scaled Composites does it first. Mostly because SpaceShipOne is already in flight testing and has already demonstrated actual powered flight with a rocket attached.
I'll guess that Paul Allen's support for this project is no more than US$25 million, chump change for someone as rich as Allen.
I think what may finally bring broadband Internet access to rural areas is essentially a development of WiFi wireless networking called WiMax.
Since WiMax has a range up to 30 miles and the ability to support thousands of users per connection point, this may finally make it possible to put up WiMax antennas out in rural areas, which eliminates pretty much the last mile connection issue for broadband Internet access.
I think we really don't need to implement broadband Internet over powerlines anyway.
The development of WiMax wireless networking technology (WiMax is essentially a development of 802.11 WiFi wireless networking that has a range up to 30 miles and supports thousands of users easily) could make the whole idea of BPL superfluous in the long run. With WiMax's long range, this makes it possible to expand broadband Internet to places where stringing out copper and/or optical fiber wires out to the customer site is not economically practical.
Actually, I'm glad that Microsoft is finally retiring Windows 98.
Given that most machines built since late 1997 in the ATX form factor use at least 168-pin SDRAM to expand system memory to 384 MB or more, many of them could run even Windows 2000 Professional relatively fast (I'm running a Celeron 500 MHz machine with 384 MB of RAM installed and Win2K Pro runs decently fast, thank you very much!). Besides, once you install Service Pack 4 and all subsequent patches Win2K Pro is actually a very stable OS, far more stable than Windows 98.
Actually, the environmentalists SHOULD support this idea.
Between getting a lot of road traffic off Interstate 15 between Los Angeles and Las Vegas and also reducing the need for air travel between Los Angeles and Las Vegas (imagine 375-450 passengers per train leaving four times per hour from Los Angeles to Las Vegas), that means a lot less air pollution from automobiles, buses and jet airliners.