If many people can see into the future, what would happen to stock valuations?
I had thought of that too. It is another paradox. Stock price goes down because less people want to buy it, but if just 100 people knew (from the future) that the stock would go up in a week, then they would all try to buy lots of shares, which makes the stock go up prematurely, maybe as high as the original target price.
Even if 1 guy could do it, what would the IRS or anyone else who found out think that he turned $1000 into a $1 mil, and was NEVER wrong? All casinos would eventually bar him. And could he resist the temptation of "celebrity" from always being right? So he gets a TV show or slot predicting races, games, etc. but then everyone bets with him and few bet against, so the payouts are not very good. You would have to give 70 point spreads to tempt people to bet against.
So how long until he LIES about an outcome, just so he can bet against all the suckers and take all their money (ie: sell out). As you can see, this can go on and on in infinite ways, all of which are bad or change the actual outcomes. Or at the very least make a new TV series...
I had a similar idea: Sony pre-sells the first 10,000 to 30,000 units on eBay, which gets a ton of cash, then you donate the excess over normal price to a worthwhile charity, which helps them and gets you good PR value.
They cut out the profiteers, get the boxes to the fools willing to pay anything to get them, help some people/organizations, get some good press. Everyone wins. Except the profiteers.
I have been saying for some time now, IMHO, Microsoft is preparing for the day when the operating system is purely commodity, and the real money is in the apps, which need to change more than the os does, since they run on TOP. That day isn't too far away, and Linux is proving it.
MS is hedging their bets, simple as that. If Linux DOES gain a foothold on the desktop soon, MS apps will run on it. If Linux ever became the most popular OS for servers, then workstations, then home system, then MS apps will run on it and you won't be able to blame Bill Gates for bad security any more.
I believe MS is first and foremost concerned about profits, not ideology. If more and more computers shipped with SuSE, MS Office, plus other MS apps, they could live with it and still be profitable. They hope it doesn't happen that way, but they are preparing just in case, which is what their stockholders would expect.
I would imagine a very small voice in Bill Gates head would love to not have to deal with the security issues that come up when you are the OS maker. All the blame, "fucking hackers", and anti-fanboys. But then he would look at his bank statement and think "oh yea, THATS why we put up with all that shit".
I'd settle for being able to send myself a short message.
Yea, I could see that.
1. Don't eat the shellfish. 2. Don't go home with Samantha. Or her twin. 3. Buy $x stock Tuesday, sell Friday 4. $1000 on the Cowboys to win by 3 points
I can't remember where I read it, but someone once said that the best evidence that time travel into the past isn't possible is the sheer lack of tourists from the future.
Right. Because we'll never, EVER invent newer and better technologies that make it easier to get at that "hard to recover" oil.
Or use current, PROVEN technologies like biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol/methanol) to stretch the reserves out for a longer period while we develop those new and better resources.
Actually, Area 51 is probably near the top of the lis
Enough so that Google Earth will take you to it by just typing in "Area 51", which tells me it is basically a common 'shortcut'. Remember, they do gather info from everyone using the free (as in beer) version, with their consent.
I think you mean hookers and blackjack, plus a few bottles of "Old Fortran", as opposed to the human preference for a six pack of Lowbrau and an anchovy pizza.
Seems like a lot of people forget the times when he tried to leave.
Of course they do, because they would rather invent a reason that fits their preconceived ideas. WTF did you expect, honest dialog and frank discussion about it? No way. It is too easy for those who hate him (or Bush) to use it as an excuse.
Of course, they also forget that he is the LONGEST SERVING Secretary of Defense in the nation's history, so regardless of circumstances, it should come as no shock that he would wait until after an election (as to not influence against the President's party) to do so. This is much less of a story than everyone wants it to be, which is (of course) why they are inventing their own story to "justify" it.
When the choice presented is between some emissions or poverty I think most people in the developing world will choose some emissions.
That is kinda why I have been researching biodiesel technology so hard over the last 6 months. Not only can you generate enough energy to maintain a high standard of living, but biofuels in general have the potential to create less NET CO2, depending on how they are made (ie: not burning down forests to grow soybeans...). Algae seems to have the best chance of producing enough oil for serious production, since they expect to get 5000 to 20,000 gallons per acre per year, compared to 160 or so for soybeans. Soybeans would also take more land in the US than we have (vs. 3% for oil from algae), so soybeans aren't the answer anyway.
Oh, and the whole "not depending on a bunch of nuts in the middle east" thing is pretty worthwhile, too. The best way to prevent war is to not need anything they have, so they don't have the extra cash to fund radical "education" programs. Biofuels won't be completely replacing petrofuels any time soon, but if we could pull off 20% to 50% over the next 10-20 years, it would do wonders for the environment AND national policy.
I posted an article on Wikipedia that a copy of a webpage I had written (and own) on another site. It was taken down on Wikipedia within 24 hours until I posted on the FIRST site that the information was under the GPDL, which took me all of 5 minutes, then the article was restored. No harm, no foul, the editor was just taking no chances. I would say they are pretty good at catching potential copyright issues, at least from MY experience.
Besides, 142 out of 1,500,000 articles is only 0.009% of the content, or Wikipedia is 99.991% Infringement Free. Ivory brand soap isn't that pure. Even Everclear is only 98% alcohol.
Human rights are decent in Moldova, and getting better. They have open and fair elections, and ironically, elected a Communist as president. I have actually been to Moldova, and have had guests from there here in the US. It is far from perfect, to be sure, but it is getting better there. The people don't speak out much, but they are still new to free speech. They have a way to go, but I am seeing lots of capitalism growing, and people who like the idea of getting paid according to their efforts.
They have about 3.6 million workforce, exceptional farm land, highly educated workforce (50% unemployment, so almost *everyone* goes to college). They ARE still stuck in the Soviet mindset, and quality is a problem because they are not used to it making a difference. We have dealt with it by adding layers of quality control. When they are properly motivated, they make great stuff.
Oh, and the most beautiful women I have ever seen. Wow.
What others also do not understand is the economics that building in China actually produces more wealth in the USA. It is NOT a zero sum game. Example:
Widget costs $1 to produce. China sells it to us for $1.30. Wholesaler in the US sells it to stores for $1.65. Stores sell it to you for $2.50. Gross profit: China $0.30 per unit. US $1.10 per unit. Net benefit: Guy making $10 an hour used to pay $3.50 for widget, now gets it for $2.50. uses extra $1 to buy something else.
Most of the additional expenses (rent, labor, advertising) is all spent in the USA. The close you get to the actual consumer, the higher the profits and margins are. This is pretty basic economics. Yes, we lost one job in manufacturing, but we gained additional jobs because now Joe Sixpack can spend more, so we need more stores, more employees, more stuff. Obviously, we need to create an even trade balance, but both countries will benefit if we do so.
I'm sure it's all political because the US couldn't survive as a country without China.
I would certainly argue that point. If you are referring to "cheap labor", then we would probably be BETTER OFF without China, and instead put resources into Mexico, at least in the mid to long term. At least if we moved jobs to Mexico, it may slow down illegal immigration as there would be more jobs. Transportation of goods would also be cheaper, and Mexico has a tremendous amount of natural resources. Moving labor to a country (usually) has the effect of raising their standard of living, which is CERTAINLY happening in China.
It would be expensive if the US quit doing business in China, mainly because we have invested so much there since the 1970s. But the US would surely survive. Who knows, we may be building computer parts in Cuba or Central America in 10 years anyway. Indonesia, Maylasia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and many others need the investment in infrastrure and would welcome being "cheap labor" while they built up their own countries.
We import from the poorest country in Europe, Moldova (former Soviet Union, between Ukraine and Romania). They do great work, get paid 2 to 4 times more than their national average and welcome the opportunity. They also make some very good wines.
Actually, I could write a perl script that could count all the registered domains if I was ICANN. No need for a low level employee. Oh, except to write the script.
Yet another crippling bombshell hit the BSD community today. It is official, of the 100,000,000 websites, 999,956,522 of them are pornographic. The other 43478 non-pornographic websites are all running BSD and are dying. Film at 11:00
ahem, the "wise man" you are refering to is Napoleon. Not sure if "wise" is the first word I would use to describe him. The quote is a bit off, but close enough (just missing "that"). Still, a very good quote, and one I have posted in my office.
I also have "Make any task idiot-proof and someone will just make a better idiot" posted.
It's called an IP address and rest assured,/. logs all IP addresses, like every other website. A website MUST know your IP, or there is nothing to route the packets to...
So yes, if you moderate, then post as AC (or just post logged in, then logout and post as AC) they know it is you. Obviously, proxies and private networks muddy this, but that is not an issue 99% of the time. The purpose of AC is so you and I don't know who the AC is, but much of the time,/. does.
Of course, the admins here KNOW you moderated then posted this rant as AC as a way to circumvent the system, and I would hope they would catch that to disallow you to moderate any more.
We already have enough moderators with an axe to grind or a personal point to prove, we don't need you.
Slashdot Mirror
If many people can see into the future, what would happen to stock valuations?
I had thought of that too. It is another paradox. Stock price goes down because less people want to buy it, but if just 100 people knew (from the future) that the stock would go up in a week, then they would all try to buy lots of shares, which makes the stock go up prematurely, maybe as high as the original target price.
Even if 1 guy could do it, what would the IRS or anyone else who found out think that he turned $1000 into a $1 mil, and was NEVER wrong? All casinos would eventually bar him. And could he resist the temptation of "celebrity" from always being right? So he gets a TV show or slot predicting races, games, etc. but then everyone bets with him and few bet against, so the payouts are not very good. You would have to give 70 point spreads to tempt people to bet against.
So how long until he LIES about an outcome, just so he can bet against all the suckers and take all their money (ie: sell out). As you can see, this can go on and on in infinite ways, all of which are bad or change the actual outcomes. Or at the very least make a new TV series...
I had a similar idea: Sony pre-sells the first 10,000 to 30,000 units on eBay, which gets a ton of cash, then you donate the excess over normal price to a worthwhile charity, which helps them and gets you good PR value.
They cut out the profiteers, get the boxes to the fools willing to pay anything to get them, help some people/organizations, get some good press. Everyone wins. Except the profiteers.
Let me guess: You live in China and your job is to translate all those instruction manuals into English?
Which, of course, makes me wonder -- if people only want it to sell on eBay, who's going to buy it on eBay?
Fanboys, and there are plenty of them who will blindly buy it.
I have been saying for some time now, IMHO, Microsoft is preparing for the day when the operating system is purely commodity, and the real money is in the apps, which need to change more than the os does, since they run on TOP. That day isn't too far away, and Linux is proving it.
MS is hedging their bets, simple as that. If Linux DOES gain a foothold on the desktop soon, MS apps will run on it. If Linux ever became the most popular OS for servers, then workstations, then home system, then MS apps will run on it and you won't be able to blame Bill Gates for bad security any more.
I believe MS is first and foremost concerned about profits, not ideology. If more and more computers shipped with SuSE, MS Office, plus other MS apps, they could live with it and still be profitable. They hope it doesn't happen that way, but they are preparing just in case, which is what their stockholders would expect.
I would imagine a very small voice in Bill Gates head would love to not have to deal with the security issues that come up when you are the OS maker. All the blame, "fucking hackers", and anti-fanboys. But then he would look at his bank statement and think "oh yea, THATS why we put up with all that shit".
Good thing, the last think 'merica needs are a bunch of damn Goobacks comin' back here and taking our jobs!
I'd settle for being able to send myself a short message.
Yea, I could see that.
1. Don't eat the shellfish.
2. Don't go home with Samantha. Or her twin.
3. Buy $x stock Tuesday, sell Friday
4. $1000 on the Cowboys to win by 3 points
I can't remember where I read it, but someone once said that the best evidence that time travel into the past isn't possible is the sheer lack of tourists from the future.
Right. Because we'll never, EVER invent newer and better technologies that make it easier to get at that "hard to recover" oil.
Or use current, PROVEN technologies like biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol/methanol) to stretch the reserves out for a longer period while we develop those new and better resources.
Actually, Area 51 is probably near the top of the lis
Enough so that Google Earth will take you to it by just typing in "Area 51", which tells me it is basically a common 'shortcut'. Remember, they do gather info from everyone using the free (as in beer) version, with their consent.
And being released (or acquitted) does not always equal innocence.
the console better massage my prostate.
Sorry, but the vibrating feature has been disabled.
I think you mean hookers and blackjack, plus a few bottles of "Old Fortran", as opposed to the human preference for a six pack of Lowbrau and an anchovy pizza.
Seems like a lot of people forget the times when he tried to leave.
Of course they do, because they would rather invent a reason that fits their preconceived ideas. WTF did you expect, honest dialog and frank discussion about it? No way. It is too easy for those who hate him (or Bush) to use it as an excuse.
Of course, they also forget that he is the LONGEST SERVING Secretary of Defense in the nation's history, so regardless of circumstances, it should come as no shock that he would wait until after an election (as to not influence against the President's party) to do so. This is much less of a story than everyone wants it to be, which is (of course) why they are inventing their own story to "justify" it.
When the choice presented is between some emissions or poverty I think most people in the developing world will choose some emissions.
That is kinda why I have been researching biodiesel technology so hard over the last 6 months. Not only can you generate enough energy to maintain a high standard of living, but biofuels in general have the potential to create less NET CO2, depending on how they are made (ie: not burning down forests to grow soybeans...). Algae seems to have the best chance of producing enough oil for serious production, since they expect to get 5000 to 20,000 gallons per acre per year, compared to 160 or so for soybeans. Soybeans would also take more land in the US than we have (vs. 3% for oil from algae), so soybeans aren't the answer anyway.
Oh, and the whole "not depending on a bunch of nuts in the middle east" thing is pretty worthwhile, too. The best way to prevent war is to not need anything they have, so they don't have the extra cash to fund radical "education" programs. Biofuels won't be completely replacing petrofuels any time soon, but if we could pull off 20% to 50% over the next 10-20 years, it would do wonders for the environment AND national policy.
I posted an article on Wikipedia that a copy of a webpage I had written (and own) on another site. It was taken down on Wikipedia within 24 hours until I posted on the FIRST site that the information was under the GPDL, which took me all of 5 minutes, then the article was restored. No harm, no foul, the editor was just taking no chances. I would say they are pretty good at catching potential copyright issues, at least from MY experience.
Besides, 142 out of 1,500,000 articles is only 0.009% of the content, or Wikipedia is 99.991% Infringement Free. Ivory brand soap isn't that pure. Even Everclear is only 98% alcohol.
Human rights are decent in Moldova, and getting better. They have open and fair elections, and ironically, elected a Communist as president. I have actually been to Moldova, and have had guests from there here in the US. It is far from perfect, to be sure, but it is getting better there. The people don't speak out much, but they are still new to free speech. They have a way to go, but I am seeing lots of capitalism growing, and people who like the idea of getting paid according to their efforts.
They have about 3.6 million workforce, exceptional farm land, highly educated workforce (50% unemployment, so almost *everyone* goes to college). They ARE still stuck in the Soviet mindset, and quality is a problem because they are not used to it making a difference. We have dealt with it by adding layers of quality control. When they are properly motivated, they make great stuff.
Oh, and the most beautiful women I have ever seen. Wow.
What others also do not understand is the economics that building in China actually produces more wealth in the USA. It is NOT a zero sum game. Example:
Widget costs $1 to produce. China sells it to us for $1.30. Wholesaler in the US sells it to stores for $1.65. Stores sell it to you for $2.50. Gross profit: China $0.30 per unit. US $1.10 per unit. Net benefit: Guy making $10 an hour used to pay $3.50 for widget, now gets it for $2.50. uses extra $1 to buy something else.
Most of the additional expenses (rent, labor, advertising) is all spent in the USA. The close you get to the actual consumer, the higher the profits and margins are. This is pretty basic economics. Yes, we lost one job in manufacturing, but we gained additional jobs because now Joe Sixpack can spend more, so we need more stores, more employees, more stuff. Obviously, we need to create an even trade balance, but both countries will benefit if we do so.
I'm sure it's all political because the US couldn't survive as a country without China.
I would certainly argue that point. If you are referring to "cheap labor", then we would probably be BETTER OFF without China, and instead put resources into Mexico, at least in the mid to long term. At least if we moved jobs to Mexico, it may slow down illegal immigration as there would be more jobs. Transportation of goods would also be cheaper, and Mexico has a tremendous amount of natural resources. Moving labor to a country (usually) has the effect of raising their standard of living, which is CERTAINLY happening in China.
It would be expensive if the US quit doing business in China, mainly because we have invested so much there since the 1970s. But the US would surely survive. Who knows, we may be building computer parts in Cuba or Central America in 10 years anyway. Indonesia, Maylasia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and many others need the investment in infrastrure and would welcome being "cheap labor" while they built up their own countries.
We import from the poorest country in Europe, Moldova (former Soviet Union, between Ukraine and Romania). They do great work, get paid 2 to 4 times more than their national average and welcome the opportunity. They also make some very good wines.
oops. I'm taking codeine for back pain. Is that a good enough excuse?
That $250 benchmark ain't gonna spare ya. I am betting the spams and scams will be:
Buy you PS3 direct from Jappan! $250 pre odor now!
Go to http;//www.geocities. com/spamohoy123 - oopsy! no space before com
Actually, I could write a perl script that could count all the registered domains if I was ICANN. No need for a low level employee. Oh, except to write the script.
Yet another crippling bombshell hit the BSD community today. It is official, of the 100,000,000 websites, 999,956,522 of them are pornographic. The other 43478 non-pornographic websites are all running BSD and are dying. Film at 11:00
(Sorry, can't resist when it comes to Netcraft)
ahem, the "wise man" you are refering to is Napoleon. Not sure if "wise" is the first word I would use to describe him. The quote is a bit off, but close enough (just missing "that"). Still, a very good quote, and one I have posted in my office.
I also have "Make any task idiot-proof and someone will just make a better idiot" posted.
It's called an IP address and rest assured, /. logs all IP addresses, like every other website. A website MUST know your IP, or there is nothing to route the packets to...
/. does.
So yes, if you moderate, then post as AC (or just post logged in, then logout and post as AC) they know it is you. Obviously, proxies and private networks muddy this, but that is not an issue 99% of the time. The purpose of AC is so you and I don't know who the AC is, but much of the time,
Of course, the admins here KNOW you moderated then posted this rant as AC as a way to circumvent the system, and I would hope they would catch that to disallow you to moderate any more.
We already have enough moderators with an axe to grind or a personal point to prove, we don't need you.