Fortunately for the masses, Steve just shot his strategy in the foot here. With PPC, they could always justify that an Intel box couldn't run it. However now they are locking the OS to their hardware. Thanks to IBM, DOJ, the Supreme Court and the many other fine organizations who have established through case law again and again that tying software to your hardware when it could otherwise run on any other hardware is illegal. All we need is one brave soul to sue Steve.
I think we should be glad for the simple fact that we didn't take the huge "performance increase" penalty that we took going from 16-bit to 32-bit. Anybody who honestly thought Win95 was faster than Win3.1 must have been smoking meth while using 3.1.
Back then, we were hitting memory ceilings created by the fact that protected mode existed, which was the justification for moving up to 32-bits despite the speed decrease. It's good to see that intel + ms did a much better job of at least keeping things on par for this transition, which outside of the Server and extreme gaming arenas seems a bit unnecessary.
Actually, it's well documented that in DOS (4.0 I beleive), Microsoft intentionally made Quarterdeck's Memory extender QEMM.SYS not work. Renaming the executable to QEMM386.SYS resolved the problem and caused the program to work without any incompatilbilities. They've definately done it.
This finding isn't that surprising. It's akin to saying that I'm not going to read my USPS mail because there's too much junk mail. Like anything else, people just got used to it.
There are (at least) two types of learners. The two that are relevent in this discussion are book learners, and experimenters. Book learners gain the knowlege more quickly, but they forget it just as quickly as the last exam passed. Further, they never truely grasp it. Experimenters will remember what they learned years from now, and understand it.
That aside, a degree is a waste of time. Go spend that time in an entry-level position and build yourself up that way. You'll be learning and you'll be making money. OTOH, if you persue a degree, you're spending money and not really getting ahead. Food for thought: the guys with the degrees go to big corporations where they make modest salaries and have a ceiling they can't go beyond. I've been CTO of two companies now and I'm only 7 years into my career. Each time has come with 6-figure salaries. Smaller companies don't care as much and they'll frequently pay off much better than large companies.
Just my thoughts
Dave
Thoughts (c) copyright 2005 by Insanely Big Corporation The views and thoughts expressed do not necessarily represent those of Insanely Big Corporation, it's management, or staff.
I take quite a different approach. First, if I don't know the person well, I ask what they do. I ask if they can do their job for me for free. Usually, the answer is 'no'. That being the case, I charge them for the work I do and show them the ways of Firefox. This usually keeps them out of trouble. For the guys who say yes, I barter. End result is I get the benefits of both worlds: bartering gets expensive services for free; charnging leads to money.
> The only thing remarkable about Gate's involvement > is that he's such a clear proof that the graphology > is crap. Him being a genius and all.
Uhm, actually it seems to more than prove it's validity. Being a Genius does not necessarily represent good psychological well being. In fact, quite often in can be an indicator of quite the opposite. Many Schizophrenics (think John Nash) are Geniuses, yet I seriously doubt anybody would refer to somebody who hears voices as "stable". Further, many pschologists believe that there is a corelation between intelligence and mental disorders. That is the smarter you are, the less you tend to understand emotions. This is why there's the common joke about the chess champion who will never get laid.
So take a look at how Bill handles himself around others. Compare him to people who are "normal". Look at the way that Bill manages his social interactions. Take a look at how he and his company manage things such as competition, fair play, etc. What you will find is a person who, while smart, has the emotional maturity of a 3 year old. Further, you will find that what you come up with a person who matches the description given by the newspapers -- it just so happens to not be Tony Blair.
Problem is, the science anybody can get is boring to the general scientific community, while the stuff geared towards egg heads is too advanced for people with an average IQ. What we can never forget is that we have a tendancy to assume that everybody is as intelligent as we are -- which if your IQ is just 1 point above 100, is not.
Everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that a force is acting to push the probes closer. What better describes what is going on is that the probes are no longer being influenced by an outward force (perhaps solar wind). So lets say theoretically that the sun's gravity as we observe it is Gsun. But with this additional force now detected, we're really seeing Gsun = Gactual - Fnew.
The laws of physics don't just stop working. More likely, we just aren't observing the phenomenon correctly.
Wait for somebody to install ADT in your neighborhood. ADT will then provide marketing materials to everyone in the neighborhood. Cut out the ADT logo and paste it on your window. Viola, no burglers. Remember, perception is reality.
I actually am a diagnosed Schizophrenic. In my own experiences with the disease, I hear a radio in my head constantly (similar to OCD), but in addition I am very easily made paranoid that the FBI is watching me or that I am going to be fired. FBI Agents note: I'm on to you already.:) Additonally, I hear th voice of Golum from LOTR in my head telling me to do nasty things. He's actually spoken to other people through me. That is REALLY freaky to have happen -- words that aren't mine come out of my mouth.
Effectively what I believe causes this is the fact that I tend to jump to conclusions quickly without an emotional response. I personally am on a low dosage of Anti-psychotics to treat negative symptoms, but well below the dosage required to treat positive symptoms. For the positive symptoms, I apply cognative theropy to myself with great success. I can now recognize my paranoid/delusional thoughts and figure out how I "feel". This is in the end a great deal of what the problem is in my head. Until a few months ago, I had never felt annoyed -- instead I though people were against me. I chose this route as I have to deal with far fewer side effects from medication than I would deal with on strong medications.
I further prefer my direction because as a result I found Nirvana in the Buddist sense. Yeah, I know, you're saying I'm crazy (which I am), but I really did. Envision a temple, and on the top of this temple is a statue. The whole thing is surrounded by a forest. That's what I found in my head. The statue symbolizes my soul, the trees symbolize where I was lost in, and the temple symbolizes that something important is on top.
In terms of meds, I can safely say that at least in the metaphor above, the drugs act to cut you off from your soul. I believe this is why Schizo's (like myself) don't like anti-psychotics. It's kind of wierd to think that the problem is your soul, but it is your soul that spews out the garbage -- something that is very difficult to accept.
Of the drugs I've tried, I like Geodon the best as it only tries to build a wall around my soul. At my dosage, I can jump between sides as needed, but can live on the "reality" side without too much interference from the fantasy side. I hated Abilify as it turned out the lights in the above metaphor, so being on it was like living in the forest again (where you live prior to finding Nirvana), complete with anxiety.
Advice for your friend: TRY COGNATIVE THEROPY. It is MUCH better than being dosed up the wazzu on Anti-Psychotics. Many Psychiatrists don't like this approach, so it may take a while to find one who does. Mine doesn't but he's willing to go along with me on it. I keep him as reviewing events with him helps me to verify that 1) Cognative Theroy is working; 2) Modern psychology is full of shit when it comes to this disease.
At his age, I was seeing the same things (and in all places, Omaha, NE). Kids making fun of me, but I didn't understand why. It's not his hair, it's him. Oddly, I thought it was my hair when I was a kid, but that was only the specific element, not the abstract element which I couldn't see. The crux of the problem isn't something you can do anything about right now -- connecting to people on the most basic emotional levels. He'll have to work it out on his own later in life.
You can get him involved in activities such as chess club, etc. that are geared towards gifted children. If he doesn't have coordination, I wouldn't do Karate as it will only frustrate him. Help him build confidence in his strengths, which appears right now to be his intelligence. Chess, computer organizations, summer school programs for the gifted, etc.
What I find humorous about the whole situation is that the anti-spammers have "declaired war" on spammers and then they turn around and complain when the spammers fire shots back. Uhm, wars usually have two sides, and both sides shoot. It'd be like the Germans complaining about the Americans shooting at them in WWII.
SCO has realized they don't have a case. They realize they can't win against IBM. So instead, they go after customers for the initial extortion, take their money, then run. The customer will probably not have the legal resources to understand the intracate details behind this suit and therefore will not be able to win. For example, most of these companies will not realize that all versions of Unix up to and including V7 are under a BSD-like license. Further, such companies will not be in the position to know what is necessary to supeona in order to prove that SCO is full of shit.
I again reiterate: Microsoft is 100% behind this to create FUD about Linux in an attempt to kill it. Bill Gates is a weenie who wouldn't know competition if it hit him over the head with an anvil. The Unix license is their way of funneling money to SCO to pay for the lawsuit, and they are most likely the company which bought the licenses from SCO.
It's interesting that SCO is taking such drastic measures such as the license termination and licensing linux to end users before they even go to trial
More specificaly, all of this is designed to create FUD. Microsoft is 100% behind this. They win if SCO wins -- Linux may no longer be free, or at least not until key components are rewriten. Even then, the name is tarnished. If SCO loses, Microsoft can go around and say "See, the GPL took SCO's IP!"
Gates really doesn't need a license for UNIX as they haven't marketed XENIX in years. The license is nothing more than a conduit to funnel money to SCO for doing the lawsuit. I'm sure there was some unwritten agreement between Bill and SCO where if they took the legal action, MS would finance it. Further, Microsoft is undoubtedly the company who bought the licenses for Linux the other day from SCO.
What's interesting about this is the fact that SCO is charging license fees for code they don't have the rights to charge for. Why? They don't own the code.
Bill Gates serving 10 years for manipulating markets, libel, fraud, extortion, etc.? The SEC does not look kindly upon this kind of stuff. Maybe something like this will expose him for the crook he really is.
A) It's already common knowledge that MS has purchased some sort of unix license from SCO.
B) If it was MS they probably would have said "Fortune 100" or smaller in order to have an even larger PR impact.
This whole thing is them. The Unix License is the method Microsoft is using to funnel money into SCO for the lawsuit. The purchase of licenses gives SCO this form of ammunation to the public.
Remember: Microsoft has a lot to gain either way. If SCO wins, Linux is no longer free. If they lose, then Microsoft has ammunition for their claim that the GPL takes away intellectual property. I mentioned this in a previous post, but it failed to create much discussion as I posted it late in the discussion (much like this post):(
Of course that's the case. From Microsoft's perspective, it's a win-win situation.
If IBM loses, Linux costs money (until it is patched). Microsoft can't fight free software on their own. They don't know how to compete. Their only strategy is to try to get rid of the competition. This is what they've done for years. Here, they're letting SCO take the brunt and financing them through their license agreement. What the hell does Microsoft need a Unix license for? OTOH, this could be a distraction while MS builds their own Linux, but it is doubtful they will.
Now, if IBM wins, MS is in the position of being able to say "See -- we told you so! The GPL takes away your IP."
BTW: from reading one of the related articles, it sounds like one of the 'guilty' contributors is SGI. The article said something along the lines of it not being IBM, HP, nor Sun. SGI has a long history of contributing to Linux. Maybe a quick review of the kernel mailing archives for patches from SGI may produce the offending code and offer a way to remove this "copied" code.
I've never understood the wearable computer. Why do I want to walk around with a computer all day? I used a PDA (fortunately it was a friend's on loan) for two weeks. I found it less than helpful. I found that it is simply easier (and quicker) to take notes on a notepad. This (and PDAs) always seemed more like toys than useful applications for computing power.
I'm saying this as a technically savy individual. I really don't see what this offers me. Maybe somebody who has tried this can post what the benefits are.
Terms and conditions
As a condition to download or receive an activation key for Kylix 2 Open Edition, we are asking for your consent to be contacted from time to time by us and/or one of our affiliates, representatives or partners, by either email, postal mail, telephone and/or facsimile, to ask you about your experience with Kylix 2 Open Edition and/or inform you about other products and/or services offered by Borland or its affiliates or partners that we think may be of interest to you. If at any time you wish to revoke your consent, you may do so by updating your account profile.
I hereby consent.
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Read another way "We'll give you this free, but we'll bombard you with spam, snail mail and phone calls." I don't mind the first two as much (filters work well for spam), but my phone number is my precious. Then again it is a $10,000 fine to make an unsolicited call to a cell phone:).
In the early stages, it is very important to keep control over your creation. However, once it gets going in a particular direction, let it go instead. Patches and features are added by other developers because they found them useful. If they found these additional features useful, someone else will as well. Further, these additional features may build your project into something far grander than you initially imagined. I seem to recall reading an article earlier today containing a usenet post about a new OS Kernal that probably wouldn't handle much more than an AT Hard drive and wouldn't ever really be big.
You overlook the intelligence of the average consumer. They just buy a computer because it works. People tend to be very ignorant when it comes to computers, so they won't understand why their apps don't work, they'll just update. Further, for most consumers 'upgrade time' isn't redoing the OS, it's buying a new computer. Unfortunately that means they upgrade to this new version of Windows.
I'm not saying that open source can not offer an alternitive -- it is well on it's way. KDE offers a stable and consistant desktop, while the Linux and BSD kernels are very stable -- both things that users look for. However there are still too many inconsistancies in interfaces. For example, the average user won't understand that to make all their apps look the same they need the same skin for both GTK and KDE apps. Then you throw in Motif apps and they will wonder, "well where do I skin these apps (of course they can't)?" So long as you stay in the realm of only one desktop environment, they are are ok. But journey out and they are screwed.
Slashdot Mirror
That's where a civil suit kicks in.
Fortunately for the masses, Steve just shot his strategy in the foot here. With PPC, they could always justify that an Intel box couldn't run it. However now they are locking the OS to their hardware. Thanks to IBM, DOJ, the Supreme Court and the many other fine organizations who have established through case law again and again that tying software to your hardware when it could otherwise run on any other hardware is illegal. All we need is one brave soul to sue Steve.
I think we should be glad for the simple fact that we didn't take the huge "performance increase" penalty that we took going from 16-bit to 32-bit. Anybody who honestly thought Win95 was faster than Win3.1 must have been smoking meth while using 3.1.
Back then, we were hitting memory ceilings created by the fact that protected mode existed, which was the justification for moving up to 32-bits despite the speed decrease. It's good to see that intel + ms did a much better job of at least keeping things on par for this transition, which outside of the Server and extreme gaming arenas seems a bit unnecessary.
Actually, it's well documented that in DOS (4.0 I beleive), Microsoft intentionally made Quarterdeck's Memory extender QEMM.SYS not work. Renaming the executable to QEMM386.SYS resolved the problem and caused the program to work without any incompatilbilities. They've definately done it.
This finding isn't that surprising. It's akin to saying that I'm not going to read my USPS mail because there's too much junk mail. Like anything else, people just got used to it.
There are (at least) two types of learners. The two that are relevent in this discussion are book learners, and experimenters. Book learners gain the knowlege more quickly, but they forget it just as quickly as the last exam passed. Further, they never truely grasp it. Experimenters will remember what they learned years from now, and understand it.
That aside, a degree is a waste of time. Go spend that time in an entry-level position and build yourself up that way. You'll be learning and you'll be making money. OTOH, if you persue a degree, you're spending money and not really getting ahead. Food for thought: the guys with the degrees go to big corporations where they make modest salaries and have a ceiling they can't go beyond. I've been CTO of two companies now and I'm only 7 years into my career. Each time has come with 6-figure salaries. Smaller companies don't care as much and they'll frequently pay off much better than large companies.
Just my thoughts
Dave
Thoughts (c) copyright 2005 by Insanely Big Corporation
The views and thoughts expressed do not necessarily represent those of Insanely Big Corporation, it's management, or staff.
I take quite a different approach. First, if I don't know the person well, I ask what they do. I ask if they can do their job for me for free. Usually, the answer is 'no'. That being the case, I charge them for the work I do and show them the ways of Firefox. This usually keeps them out of trouble. For the guys who say yes, I barter. End result is I get the benefits of both worlds: bartering gets expensive services for free; charnging leads to money.
> The only thing remarkable about Gate's involvement
> is that he's such a clear proof that the graphology
> is crap. Him being a genius and all.
Uhm, actually it seems to more than prove it's validity. Being a Genius does not necessarily represent good psychological well being. In fact, quite often in can be an indicator of quite the opposite. Many Schizophrenics (think John Nash) are Geniuses, yet I seriously doubt anybody would refer to somebody who hears voices as "stable". Further, many pschologists believe that there is a corelation between intelligence and mental disorders. That is the smarter you are, the less you tend to understand emotions. This is why there's the common joke about the chess champion who will never get laid.
So take a look at how Bill handles himself around others. Compare him to people who are "normal". Look at the way that Bill manages his social interactions. Take a look at how he and his company manage things such as competition, fair play, etc. What you will find is a person who, while smart, has the emotional maturity of a 3 year old. Further, you will find that what you come up with a person who matches the description given by the newspapers -- it just so happens to not be Tony Blair.
Problem is, the science anybody can get is boring to the general scientific community, while the stuff geared towards egg heads is too advanced for people with an average IQ. What we can never forget is that we have a tendancy to assume that everybody is as intelligent as we are -- which if your IQ is just 1 point above 100, is not.
Everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that a force is acting to push the probes closer. What better describes what is going on is that the probes are no longer being influenced by an outward force (perhaps solar wind). So lets say theoretically that the sun's gravity as we observe it is Gsun. But with this additional force now detected, we're really seeing Gsun = Gactual - Fnew.
The laws of physics don't just stop working. More likely, we just aren't observing the phenomenon correctly.
Simple Low-tech solution to fend off an intruder:
Wait for somebody to install ADT in your neighborhood. ADT will then provide marketing materials to everyone in the neighborhood. Cut out the ADT logo and paste it on your window. Viola, no burglers. Remember, perception is reality.
I actually am a diagnosed Schizophrenic. In my own experiences with the disease, I hear a radio in my head constantly (similar to OCD), but in addition I am very easily made paranoid that the FBI is watching me or that I am going to be fired. FBI Agents note: I'm on to you already. :) Additonally, I hear th voice of Golum from LOTR in my head telling me to do nasty things. He's actually spoken to other people through me. That is REALLY freaky to have happen -- words that aren't mine come out of my mouth.
Effectively what I believe causes this is the fact that I tend to jump to conclusions quickly without an emotional response. I personally am on a low dosage of Anti-psychotics to treat negative symptoms, but well below the dosage required to treat positive symptoms. For the positive symptoms, I apply cognative theropy to myself with great success. I can now recognize my paranoid/delusional thoughts and figure out how I "feel". This is in the end a great deal of what the problem is in my head. Until a few months ago, I had never felt annoyed -- instead I though people were against me. I chose this route as I have to deal with far fewer side effects from medication than I would deal with on strong medications.
I further prefer my direction because as a result I found Nirvana in the Buddist sense. Yeah, I know, you're saying I'm crazy (which I am), but I really did. Envision a temple, and on the top of this temple is a statue. The whole thing is surrounded by a forest. That's what I found in my head. The statue symbolizes my soul, the trees symbolize where I was lost in, and the temple symbolizes that something important is on top.
In terms of meds, I can safely say that at least in the metaphor above, the drugs act to cut you off from your soul. I believe this is why Schizo's (like myself) don't like anti-psychotics. It's kind of wierd to think that the problem is your soul, but it is your soul that spews out the garbage -- something that is very difficult to accept.
Of the drugs I've tried, I like Geodon the best as it only tries to build a wall around my soul. At my dosage, I can jump between sides as needed, but can live on the "reality" side without too much interference from the fantasy side. I hated Abilify as it turned out the lights in the above metaphor, so being on it was like living in the forest again (where you live prior to finding Nirvana), complete with anxiety.
Advice for your friend: TRY COGNATIVE THEROPY. It is MUCH better than being dosed up the wazzu on Anti-Psychotics. Many Psychiatrists don't like this approach, so it may take a while to find one who does. Mine doesn't but he's willing to go along with me on it. I keep him as reviewing events with him helps me to verify that 1) Cognative Theroy is working; 2) Modern psychology is full of shit when it comes to this disease.
Uhm, you can't be psychotic and a sociopath. Psychotics bottle up their emotions. Sociopaths don't have any to bottle up. :)
At his age, I was seeing the same things (and in all places, Omaha, NE). Kids making fun of me, but I didn't understand why. It's not his hair, it's him. Oddly, I thought it was my hair when I was a kid, but that was only the specific element, not the abstract element which I couldn't see. The crux of the problem isn't something you can do anything about right now -- connecting to people on the most basic emotional levels. He'll have to work it out on his own later in life.
You can get him involved in activities such as chess club, etc. that are geared towards gifted children. If he doesn't have coordination, I wouldn't do Karate as it will only frustrate him. Help him build confidence in his strengths, which appears right now to be his intelligence. Chess, computer organizations, summer school programs for the gifted, etc.
Just my $0.02 worth.
Dave Bialac
I agree both sides are annoying.
What I find humorous about the whole situation is that the anti-spammers have "declaired war" on spammers and then they turn around and complain when the spammers fire shots back. Uhm, wars usually have two sides, and both sides shoot. It'd be like the Germans complaining about the Americans shooting at them in WWII.
The simple reality of the situation is this:
SCO has realized they don't have a case. They realize they can't win against IBM. So instead, they go after customers for the initial extortion, take their money, then run. The customer will probably not have the legal resources to understand the intracate details behind this suit and therefore will not be able to win. For example, most of these companies will not realize that all versions of Unix up to and including V7 are under a BSD-like license. Further, such companies will not be in the position to know what is necessary to supeona in order to prove that SCO is full of shit.
I again reiterate: Microsoft is 100% behind this to create FUD about Linux in an attempt to kill it. Bill Gates is a weenie who wouldn't know competition if it hit him over the head with an anvil. The Unix license is their way of funneling money to SCO to pay for the lawsuit, and they are most likely the company which bought the licenses from SCO.
More specificaly, all of this is designed to create FUD. Microsoft is 100% behind this. They win if SCO wins -- Linux may no longer be free, or at least not until key components are rewriten. Even then, the name is tarnished. If SCO loses, Microsoft can go around and say "See, the GPL took SCO's IP!"
Gates really doesn't need a license for UNIX as they haven't marketed XENIX in years. The license is nothing more than a conduit to funnel money to SCO for doing the lawsuit. I'm sure there was some unwritten agreement between Bill and SCO where if they took the legal action, MS would finance it. Further, Microsoft is undoubtedly the company who bought the licenses for Linux the other day from SCO.
What's interesting about this is the fact that SCO is charging license fees for code they don't have the rights to charge for. Why? They don't own the code.
Bill Gates serving 10 years for manipulating markets, libel, fraud, extortion, etc.? The SEC does not look kindly upon this kind of stuff. Maybe something like this will expose him for the crook he really is.
B) If it was MS they probably would have said "Fortune 100" or smaller in order to have an even larger PR impact.
This whole thing is them. The Unix License is the method Microsoft is using to funnel money into SCO for the lawsuit. The purchase of licenses gives SCO this form of ammunation to the public.
Remember: Microsoft has a lot to gain either way. If SCO wins, Linux is no longer free. If they lose, then Microsoft has ammunition for their claim that the GPL takes away intellectual property. I mentioned this in a previous post, but it failed to create much discussion as I posted it late in the discussion (much like this post) :(
Of course that's the case. From Microsoft's perspective, it's a win-win situation.
If IBM loses, Linux costs money (until it is patched). Microsoft can't fight free software on their own. They don't know how to compete. Their only strategy is to try to get rid of the competition. This is what they've done for years. Here, they're letting SCO take the brunt and financing them through their license agreement. What the hell does Microsoft need a Unix license for? OTOH, this could be a distraction while MS builds their own Linux, but it is doubtful they will.
Now, if IBM wins, MS is in the position of being able to say "See -- we told you so! The GPL takes away your IP."
BTW: from reading one of the related articles, it sounds like one of the 'guilty' contributors is SGI. The article said something along the lines of it not being IBM, HP, nor Sun. SGI has a long history of contributing to Linux. Maybe a quick review of the kernel mailing archives for patches from SGI may produce the offending code and offer a way to remove this "copied" code.
And now if they can just get running water, electricity, and roads they'll be set.
I've never understood the wearable computer. Why do I want to walk around with a computer all day? I used a PDA (fortunately it was a friend's on loan) for two weeks. I found it less than helpful. I found that it is simply easier (and quicker) to take notes on a notepad. This (and PDAs) always seemed more like toys than useful applications for computing power.
I'm saying this as a technically savy individual. I really don't see what this offers me. Maybe somebody who has tried this can post what the benefits are.
Terms and conditions
:).
As a condition to download or receive an activation key for Kylix 2 Open Edition, we are asking for your consent to be contacted from time to time by us and/or one of our affiliates, representatives or partners, by either email, postal mail, telephone and/or facsimile, to ask you about your experience with Kylix 2 Open Edition and/or inform you about other products and/or services offered by Borland or its affiliates or partners that we think may be of interest to you. If at any time you wish to revoke your consent, you may do so by updating your account profile.
I hereby consent.
I do not consent.
Read another way "We'll give you this free, but we'll bombard you with spam, snail mail and phone calls." I don't mind the first two as much (filters work well for spam), but my phone number is my precious. Then again it is a $10,000 fine to make an unsolicited call to a cell phone
In the early stages, it is very important to keep control over your creation. However, once it gets going in a particular direction, let it go instead. Patches and features are added by other developers because they found them useful. If they found these additional features useful, someone else will as well. Further, these additional features may build your project into something far grander than you initially imagined. I seem to recall reading an article earlier today containing a usenet post about a new OS Kernal that probably wouldn't handle much more than an AT Hard drive and wouldn't ever really be big.
You overlook the intelligence of the average consumer. They just buy a computer because it works. People tend to be very ignorant when it comes to computers, so they won't understand why their apps don't work, they'll just update. Further, for most consumers 'upgrade time' isn't redoing the OS, it's buying a new computer. Unfortunately that means they upgrade to this new version of Windows.
I'm not saying that open source can not offer an alternitive -- it is well on it's way. KDE offers a stable and consistant desktop, while the Linux and BSD kernels are very stable -- both things that users look for. However there are still too many inconsistancies in interfaces. For example, the average user won't understand that to make all their apps look the same they need the same skin for both GTK and KDE apps. Then you throw in Motif apps and they will wonder, "well where do I skin these apps (of course they can't)?" So long as you stay in the realm of only one desktop environment, they are are ok. But journey out and they are screwed.