A)Only one person owns the cell phone, and recieves utility from the ringtone.
B)No one likes hearing other people's dumb ringtones.
C)The song isn't played in it's entirety.
D)The song is of a degraded quality.
E)No one pre-arranges 100 folding chairs when they expect a phone call.
F)No one charges admission to the ringtone.
G)The preferred method of listening to a musical piece, are... CD, concerts, radio, computer/MP3s, cassete, vinyl, 8 track, humming, etc. Notice that ringtones aren't in this list. (I suspect the results would be the same, even with a more statistically accurate "top 10 preferred methods of listening to music")
I don't think that considering myself "lucky" because they are only gouging a little now... to do so would doom me to them gouging alot later.
that analogy isn't even close. automakers restricting your own oil changes would be an analogy to the RIAA trying to prevent indy musicians, which is has done nothing of the sort.
No, that analogy would be like GM trying to prevent me from making my own hotrod. If I take one of their products and modify and/or service it, that would be like me taking the RIAA's product (e.g. a shitty pop song) and modifying and/or servicing it (converting it to ringtone format, and putting it on my cell phone).
Copyright prevents me from taking their product, making copies of it, and selling those. Doesn't say I can't sell the book that they printed, or that I can't cut the pages out, and paste them on the side of my van. Nor does it say that I can't take a CD I bought legally, and make a ringtone of it. Even their assclown lawyers would have a hell of a time convincing a judge that it amounts to a "public performance".
They have a case against college kids sharing ringtones on napster. But none when it comes to someone creating a ringtone from a CD they own. Anyone that thinks otherwise, needs their breathing privileges revoked.
Did some research. Steam turbines are out of the question for less than 250 horsepower. And for small-sized stuff like we'd want, I'd say there is a max of 5horsepower steam engines (traditional piston). Trouble is, you'd have trouble even doing a 1hp engine with a 9ft dia solar furnace. I like the idea, but I'm a bit disouraged.
Still, this might save a bit on water heating (certainly a not insignificant fraction of a power bill). Bypass the cold water intake on the water heater, and pump already warm/hot water into the heater. The thermostat on the thing keeps it from heating it more, and when the solar array isn't working, you'd still be able to make hot water.
You are not entitled to a job, nor should the government be changed such that you would be.
And yet, the government is entitled to all sorts of things from the parent poster, and circumventing those things is a felony punishable by decades in prison. I contend that, with a government so controlling, so expecting, that he is indeed entitled to a job.
When we dump about 90% of our laws, then maybe people can "be on their own".
BTW, "colledge" isn't necessarily a misspelling, but a typo. Sloppy typing isn't nearly as stupid as being unable to spell that word, and it's sort of a low blow. (How can I tell this? E and D are adjacent.)
Not sure it would have to scale well. I wouldn't intend to blanket my property with hundreds of these, and go off the grid. Even 5% of my daytime power requirements would be a boon, and amounts less than that an interesting, if not so productive, project.
Imagine the power going out for 3-4 hours (which happens at least twice a year here) but being able to keep a few lights on, or a TV. That's not something to turn your nose up at, especially if it doesn't mean a $4000 generator and $2+ per gallon gasoline.
And besides, I'm not a genius or anything. Others talk of ~25% steam turbine efficiency. Is there anything else practical, that has a higher efficiency?
Following the sun could be done somewhat simply, I'd think. Might be better to precalc the best direction, based on calendar date, than to try and "sense" the direction.
Wouldn't need to store it, I'd still be on the grid, and use grid power at night (use it less then, anyway).
Wouldn't need to power my entire home on it either... if it reduced the electric bill even a few bucks a month, how long would it take to pay for itself?
Last year, with hurrican Isabel, we were without power for 12 days (almost the last in the city to get it back). Even 250 watts would have been a godsend.
And I do have a shed outside that's going to get a flat roof (for some satellite dishes, say 5 or 6 of them) and it wouldn't be much to expand the size of that flat roof, and have room for 2 or 3 of these. Could be fun...
Some design considerations do come to mind. Would have to be shielded, so leaves don't blow into into the focus, and burn the thing down. Would imagine that the steam turbine portion of things would have safety valves, so that a particularly sunny day doesn't blow up the boiler. And as you said, a bank of caps. If the lens is $99, how much could the rest be done for?
Only truly expensive part, is the generator-safe hookup for incoming power. Don't those run $1500+ ?
Could you do something serious with this? Put the damn thing in a rig that follows the sun, and a small steam turbine under it, just how much juice could it provide?
I wish I knew the math to this, but damn, if it could provide even a small fraction of the power I use during the daytime... (by this, I mean 5-10%)
Anyone want to impress me with their math/physics skills?
One good thing about Matrix Revolutions: (If you're George Lucas) Knowing that you're not the only one who could screw up an "impossible to screw up" trilogy.
Too much to hope for? Am I doomed to watch a 900 yr old, borderline decrepit (only physically) Yoda bounce around like some novelty toy?
Here's how it should go down. Dooku (like an idiot) taunts him, boasts of his supreme power. Yoda opens his robe, and a few dozen light sabers fly outward from it. They activate in the air, and start spinning like saw blades, flying around levitated by Yoda's force powers. 5 and 6 probing inward, trying to turn Dooku into hamburger. He's good, fending them off for a short time... but nothing he can do delays the inevitable. Yoda frowns, wondering what will happen now.
Here's what will happen. They will exchange hammed up, lame-ass quotes. They will slowly draw their weapons, prancing around slowly. CUT TO ANAKIN VS. KENOBI'S EXTEME LAVA SURFING CHAMPIONSHIP. Blah. CUT TO DOOKU AND YODA'S SABERS LOCKED, FACES INCHES AWAY. More lame quote/counter-quote. CUT TO...
Brownie points to the first person who can download a pirated copy, and photoshop in Fonz jumping a shark in the background.
How about psychologists to console people when the point in time comes that they realize all their tin-foil-hat
Medicating people for all sorts of personality flaws has been national psych policy for at least 2 decades now. That market is saturated.
How is this so obvious to you? Seriously, clue me in on this gnostic-like secret knowledge of yours that leads you to this idea. You haven't shown me anything to back up your statements
It is obvious, because for the past 100 years or so, people have been able to guess (people other than me) what industries lie ahead of us, with a suprising accuracy. I'm still a little awestruck that we managed to land on the moon in '69, but truth told, people were dreaming of that since the mid 1800s. Nuclear power was obvious in the late 30s to a select few, by the mid 40s the entire world was thinking about it (both for peaceful and belligerent purposes). Nearly every sort of industry that has happened, people were aware that it was coming long before it actually arrived.
What makes you think this has changed? And assuming you will agree to that point, what scifi industries have you read about that I haven't? What economic trends do you see? Oh, there are a few that will mature soon enough, but with corporations in the habit of "outsourcing" exactly what piece of that action do you think we'll get? Very few things need to be done in a specific location, and unfortunately, those have somewhat fixed labor levels.
Even counting baby boomer retirements as liberally as I can, there just isn't going to be nearly as many job openings, as there are adults looking to fill them.
so, other than middle managers, I don't know of too many people that like middle management anyways
Bad joke. The trend has been to eliminate unnecessary management.
This may only have regional implications but I for 3 years I delivered food, Dominos, Steak-Out and such
Two things are going on here. Just a guess, but the beginning of those 3 years caught the edge of the dotcom thing, where people like me had more spending money than usual. So yeh, you got a little more than minimum. Second, you are implying that we'll all become fast food workers. I regret that I can't dispute that... I just can't concede it nearly as happily as you.
I'd just like you to admit that maybe - not even probably or likely - just maybe, the outsourcing thing isn't the harbinger of an economic collapse
Gladly. Outsourcing isn't the harbinger of economic collapse. That will happen anyway, for different reasons. Outsourcing will just make the years leading up to the collapse more miserable for people like us. Isn't it obvious that it's hurting some people now? It's not a temporary effect, and those people don't have anything to retrain for.
Making new things? They'll be made elsewhere. Designing new things? They'll be designed elsewhere. Programming new things? Ditto. Genetically engineering blue corn? Elsewhere.
They can't outsource nursing home care, so maybe we can all get jobs wiping great gradma's ass.
I don't have any clue why people insist "well, there will always be something else to do". There will be, of course, on the low end of the wage slave scale. There simply aren't going to be any more booms left. When this becomes more obvious, the pundits will put a happy face on it, saying how we'll all be lawyers, doctors and movie stars. How likely is that, do you think?
I mean, let's play fantasy land. Space exploration opens wide up. We mine asteroids, and prepare shuttles for rich people to vacation on the moon.
Oops, they'll be able to do it cheaper in India.
Are we all supposed to become middle (and up) management? Our outsourced indian workers will like that, I'm sure. One little problem though, management is a club most of us won't get invited to.
I dare you, to come up with a single field, capable of employing 250,000 workers at higher than minimum wage. Doesn't matter how outlandish, either. Dragon farmers or something, still counts. Only one other requirement. That somehow, someway, it wouldn't be more profitable to hire malaysians to do it. Or chinese prison labor. If you can make something up, no one is allowed to say, "that's not even real". You will win, and I will concede your victory.
Second of all, the situation is not as bad as you make it look. Industry has been exported before and although it did cause unemployment
It is easy to imagine the day, when the only work necessary for anyone would be creative. How far can automation go in the next 100 years? Food/necessity production could be 100% automated. Transportation of goods, of people. Manufacturing. Everything in your home, it might be made and brought to you without a single human hand touching it. Finance, bankers, accountants, tellers... all that stuff, done by a remote computer. Almost every traditional job today, might be the province of machines. But that's far in the future right?
Well, take a look at it, and try to think backward from that point in time. Who will own all the machines? All the infrastructure? Certainly not me or my children. Probably not yours. My guess is about 10,000 or so people will end up owning it all.
Now, up until that time, if things were all sunshiny and happy, they'd still need designers/engineers, software programmers, to make this all work. They still will, of course. But not anyone from the USA. Do you expect some other field to open up? I mean, what exactly will be the next big boom? Bio-engineering? Haha. India will get that too.
Why could exporting these current jobs be worse? Because for once, no one can imagine anything new coming along, at least, nothing new that won't be outsourced to somewhere in Asia.
The sorts of jobs that can't be exported, cops, lawyers, fast food workers, etc... they're sort of fixed. This is scary for some, me too. Capitalism may have been better than what came before it, but it's not some magic tool, perfect for every situation. There will come a time when it wears out, and it is going to cause alot of trouble.
I think you're missing a point as well. It's another form of cyclical nature of supply & demand, only this is applied to a labor market.
It is inevitable (barring the extinction of the human race) that this "cyclical nature" eventually resolve itself, change. And then everything we know it worthless, it won't apply. Water continues to decrease in volume as the temperature goes down, you know. It should go on forever... and if you haven't seen it turn into ice before, how are you to know what's going to happen?
The cycle will end, in our lifetimes, or at the very outside, the lifetime of our children. But even before it ends completely, the last few boom/busts could be be very atypical.
Software is yound yet. How many bank tellers, how many accountants at Capitol One HQ will be needed 15 years from now? We can't all be artists, we can't all be day traders. Even the jobs no one expects will be gone, will go eventually. When cars can be piloted automatically, no need for a driver, where do you think the first application will be? It won't be GM or Ford introducing it, it will be Freightliner, and then several hundred thousand truckers are trying to get the same Mcdonald's job I'm trying to get. Then, within a few years, another 100,000 taxi drivers.
Everyone who has read science fiction has seen this coming for the last 50 years. What they didn't forsee, is all the software/design/engineering/architecture jobs disappearing before all this comes to pass.
I'll agree with that but if someone is complaining about the nature of the jobs available
We're not talking someone used to making $80,000 a year having to get cut back to $55k/py. Could you honestly survive with even 2 minimum wage jobs? Since they never give you 40 hours a week, I suppose you could technically work 2.5 of them. I live in a tiny little shithole on the bad side of town, and even then my mortgage is still half what I'd be making with 2.5 MickyD jobs.
IMHO, that is more of an arrogant view of the work they are willing to perform.
It is not even slightly arrogant, to think that the kinds of jobs my ancestors performed 120+ years ago should finally be behind us. That I might actually be able to own a home of my own. Not scuttling around on my hands and knees scrubbing some floor.
There will soon come the day, where the yacht's principle wealth is the design itself. The price of all raw materials is always dropping, and automation will make the labor/construction all but free. I suspect this will be nanotechnology, though the underlying tech could be anything, who can say?
And the day it becomes possible for nanotech to make free, limitless food will be marked down in history as the day half the world's population started starving.
Why is it so difficult for them to not intentionally ruin our economy in the long run? I'm not particularly bright, I see it coming. If they see it happening too, why not avert it?
They don't care? I find that hard to believe, even they won't want to live here, with what the country will become. So, does this means they simply escape to some other tropical island nation?
And, assuming my conclusions aren't wrong, why are there no fixes at all? Can't we put together some legislation to force this to be fixed? Or does that not work either?
do you want to move out of your plush apartment into a cheaper rural location and commute (potentially e-commute) to work and cut down your living expenses?
These will be cheaper, when millions are doing the same thing? I'm not an economist, but I would tend to think those rural places won't be that much cheaper either.
There are levels of survival we are willing to accept
This says it all. If not in words, attitude. The implication is that I will have less than I have now. The bait dangling before me, is the (probable) illusion that I'll have only less, and not nothing.
So, you're saying they're not indirectly customers?
I mean, if Oracle's direct customer is Ford, and Ford's customers are these IT workers... why will Ford need database software after there is no one left to sell cars to?
What ever gave you this idea? Look at our economy. Even the talking heads have trouble describing it as the end of the recession, and they usually like lying to us.
And everyone seems to forget that their are no new fields to go into.
They may find that now but wait until the state of the programmer in India and other places change. As people's standard of living increases, their demands increase until one day they will not be cheaper anymore.
What you describe, is somethign along the lines of "after it all averages out". Sorry, but I don't want the job back after my pay is averaged against the per capita of Buttfuckistan ($346 per year).
300 million americans, 1 billion indians. We're at the high range. They're the low. Averages, "evening out", etc... it just can't be in our favor.
That money CAN be recovered anyway in the form of exports to India
Haha! We're *supposed* to be a service economy. We don't make anything anymore. What will be export? I mean, other than technical jobs?
Maybe they never had the choice but my guess is that if all the programmers at a company banded together and sent a note to upper managment saying they would match the savings in pay and benefit cuts
Maybe if management stopped to wonder if there would be anyone left that could afford their product 10 years from now, they'd hesitate too. And it doesn't matter much what product either... think a homeless former programmer needs a bank account? But they won't. Management is counting on the "other" company to employ them, to pay them, so they can open their checking account. Too bad the "other" company is thinking the same thing.
I could be wrong.
Proving, with little doubt, that you're smarter than alot of the other people commenting on this story.
You're missing the point. If only a few go into "creative" positions, how is this a solution for an evaporating job market?
150 million working age americans can have jobs that by definition number in the thousands? I'm all for creativity, but some people just need a job to put food on the table.
Slashdot Mirror
True. But I don't want heat at the exact time this priduces the most of it. I want hot water year round.
There's gotta be a way to take advantage of this.
Only a one person audience. As evidenced by:
A)Only one person owns the cell phone, and recieves utility from the ringtone.
B)No one likes hearing other people's dumb ringtones.
C)The song isn't played in it's entirety.
D)The song is of a degraded quality.
E)No one pre-arranges 100 folding chairs when they expect a phone call.
F)No one charges admission to the ringtone.
G)The preferred method of listening to a musical piece, are... CD, concerts, radio, computer/MP3s, cassete, vinyl, 8 track, humming, etc. Notice that ringtones aren't in this list. (I suspect the results would be the same, even with a more statistically accurate "top 10 preferred methods of listening to music")
I don't think that considering myself "lucky" because they are only gouging a little now... to do so would doom me to them gouging alot later.
that analogy isn't even close. automakers restricting your own oil changes would be an analogy to the RIAA trying to prevent indy musicians, which is has done nothing of the sort.
No, that analogy would be like GM trying to prevent me from making my own hotrod. If I take one of their products and modify and/or service it, that would be like me taking the RIAA's product (e.g. a shitty pop song) and modifying and/or servicing it (converting it to ringtone format, and putting it on my cell phone).
Copyright prevents me from taking their product, making copies of it, and selling those. Doesn't say I can't sell the book that they printed, or that I can't cut the pages out, and paste them on the side of my van. Nor does it say that I can't take a CD I bought legally, and make a ringtone of it. Even their assclown lawyers would have a hell of a time convincing a judge that it amounts to a "public performance".
They have a case against college kids sharing ringtones on napster. But none when it comes to someone creating a ringtone from a CD they own. Anyone that thinks otherwise, needs their breathing privileges revoked.
Did some research. Steam turbines are out of the question for less than 250 horsepower. And for small-sized stuff like we'd want, I'd say there is a max of 5horsepower steam engines (traditional piston). Trouble is, you'd have trouble even doing a 1hp engine with a 9ft dia solar furnace. I like the idea, but I'm a bit disouraged.
Still, this might save a bit on water heating (certainly a not insignificant fraction of a power bill). Bypass the cold water intake on the water heater, and pump already warm/hot water into the heater. The thermostat on the thing keeps it from heating it more, and when the solar array isn't working, you'd still be able to make hot water.
You are not entitled to a job, nor should the government be changed such that you would be.
And yet, the government is entitled to all sorts of things from the parent poster, and circumventing those things is a felony punishable by decades in prison. I contend that, with a government so controlling, so expecting, that he is indeed entitled to a job.
When we dump about 90% of our laws, then maybe people can "be on their own".
BTW, "colledge" isn't necessarily a misspelling, but a typo. Sloppy typing isn't nearly as stupid as being unable to spell that word, and it's sort of a low blow. (How can I tell this? E and D are adjacent.)
Not sure it would have to scale well. I wouldn't intend to blanket my property with hundreds of these, and go off the grid. Even 5% of my daytime power requirements would be a boon, and amounts less than that an interesting, if not so productive, project.
Imagine the power going out for 3-4 hours (which happens at least twice a year here) but being able to keep a few lights on, or a TV. That's not something to turn your nose up at, especially if it doesn't mean a $4000 generator and $2+ per gallon gasoline.
And besides, I'm not a genius or anything. Others talk of ~25% steam turbine efficiency. Is there anything else practical, that has a higher efficiency?
Following the sun could be done somewhat simply, I'd think. Might be better to precalc the best direction, based on calendar date, than to try and "sense" the direction.
Wouldn't need to store it, I'd still be on the grid, and use grid power at night (use it less then, anyway).
Wouldn't need to power my entire home on it either... if it reduced the electric bill even a few bucks a month, how long would it take to pay for itself?
Last year, with hurrican Isabel, we were without power for 12 days (almost the last in the city to get it back). Even 250 watts would have been a godsend.
And I do have a shed outside that's going to get a flat roof (for some satellite dishes, say 5 or 6 of them) and it wouldn't be much to expand the size of that flat roof, and have room for 2 or 3 of these. Could be fun...
Some design considerations do come to mind. Would have to be shielded, so leaves don't blow into into the focus, and burn the thing down. Would imagine that the steam turbine portion of things would have safety valves, so that a particularly sunny day doesn't blow up the boiler. And as you said, a bank of caps. If the lens is $99, how much could the rest be done for?
Only truly expensive part, is the generator-safe hookup for incoming power. Don't those run $1500+ ?
Could you do something serious with this? Put the damn thing in a rig that follows the sun, and a small steam turbine under it, just how much juice could it provide?
I wish I knew the math to this, but damn, if it could provide even a small fraction of the power I use during the daytime... (by this, I mean 5-10%)
Anyone want to impress me with their math/physics skills?
Are you kidding?
Jesus is the one flogging him.
Maddox said it best.
One good thing about Matrix Revolutions: (If you're George Lucas) Knowing that you're not the only one who could screw up an "impossible to screw up" trilogy.
Too much to hope for? Am I doomed to watch a 900 yr old, borderline decrepit (only physically) Yoda bounce around like some novelty toy?
Here's how it should go down. Dooku (like an idiot) taunts him, boasts of his supreme power. Yoda opens his robe, and a few dozen light sabers fly outward from it. They activate in the air, and start spinning like saw blades, flying around levitated by Yoda's force powers. 5 and 6 probing inward, trying to turn Dooku into hamburger. He's good, fending them off for a short time... but nothing he can do delays the inevitable. Yoda frowns, wondering what will happen now.
Here's what will happen. They will exchange hammed up, lame-ass quotes. They will slowly draw their weapons, prancing around slowly. CUT TO ANAKIN VS. KENOBI'S EXTEME LAVA SURFING CHAMPIONSHIP. Blah. CUT TO DOOKU AND YODA'S SABERS LOCKED, FACES INCHES AWAY. More lame quote/counter-quote. CUT TO...
Brownie points to the first person who can download a pirated copy, and photoshop in Fonz jumping a shark in the background.
But until someone makes a 3rd party router, with a 56k POTS interface, 80% of america is left out in the cold.
How about psychologists to console people when the point in time comes that they realize all their tin-foil-hat
Medicating people for all sorts of personality flaws has been national psych policy for at least 2 decades now. That market is saturated.
How is this so obvious to you? Seriously, clue me in on this gnostic-like secret knowledge of yours that leads you to this idea. You haven't shown me anything to back up your statements
It is obvious, because for the past 100 years or so, people have been able to guess (people other than me) what industries lie ahead of us, with a suprising accuracy. I'm still a little awestruck that we managed to land on the moon in '69, but truth told, people were dreaming of that since the mid 1800s. Nuclear power was obvious in the late 30s to a select few, by the mid 40s the entire world was thinking about it (both for peaceful and belligerent purposes). Nearly every sort of industry that has happened, people were aware that it was coming long before it actually arrived.
What makes you think this has changed? And assuming you will agree to that point, what scifi industries have you read about that I haven't? What economic trends do you see? Oh, there are a few that will mature soon enough, but with corporations in the habit of "outsourcing" exactly what piece of that action do you think we'll get? Very few things need to be done in a specific location, and unfortunately, those have somewhat fixed labor levels.
Even counting baby boomer retirements as liberally as I can, there just isn't going to be nearly as many job openings, as there are adults looking to fill them.
so, other than middle managers, I don't know of too many people that like middle management anyways
Bad joke. The trend has been to eliminate unnecessary management.
This may only have regional implications but I for 3 years I delivered food, Dominos, Steak-Out and such
Two things are going on here. Just a guess, but the beginning of those 3 years caught the edge of the dotcom thing, where people like me had more spending money than usual. So yeh, you got a little more than minimum. Second, you are implying that we'll all become fast food workers. I regret that I can't dispute that... I just can't concede it nearly as happily as you.
I'd just like you to admit that maybe - not even probably or likely - just maybe, the outsourcing thing isn't the harbinger of an economic collapse
Gladly. Outsourcing isn't the harbinger of economic collapse. That will happen anyway, for different reasons. Outsourcing will just make the years leading up to the collapse more miserable for people like us. Isn't it obvious that it's hurting some people now? It's not a temporary effect, and those people don't have anything to retrain for.
New fields:
Making new things? They'll be made elsewhere.
Designing new things? They'll be designed elsewhere.
Programming new things? Ditto.
Genetically engineering blue corn? Elsewhere.
They can't outsource nursing home care, so maybe we can all get jobs wiping great gradma's ass.
I don't have any clue why people insist "well, there will always be something else to do". There will be, of course, on the low end of the wage slave scale. There simply aren't going to be any more booms left. When this becomes more obvious, the pundits will put a happy face on it, saying how we'll all be lawyers, doctors and movie stars. How likely is that, do you think?
I mean, let's play fantasy land. Space exploration opens wide up. We mine asteroids, and prepare shuttles for rich people to vacation on the moon.
Oops, they'll be able to do it cheaper in India.
Are we all supposed to become middle (and up) management? Our outsourced indian workers will like that, I'm sure. One little problem though, management is a club most of us won't get invited to.
I dare you, to come up with a single field, capable of employing 250,000 workers at higher than minimum wage. Doesn't matter how outlandish, either. Dragon farmers or something, still counts. Only one other requirement. That somehow, someway, it wouldn't be more profitable to hire malaysians to do it. Or chinese prison labor. If you can make something up, no one is allowed to say, "that's not even real". You will win, and I will concede your victory.
I dare you.
I don't think a government ban is a solution either. So, I don't know how to fix it, to be honest.
Second of all, the situation is not as bad as you make it look. Industry has been exported before and although it did cause unemployment
It is easy to imagine the day, when the only work necessary for anyone would be creative. How far can automation go in the next 100 years? Food/necessity production could be 100% automated. Transportation of goods, of people. Manufacturing. Everything in your home, it might be made and brought to you without a single human hand touching it. Finance, bankers, accountants, tellers... all that stuff, done by a remote computer. Almost every traditional job today, might be the province of machines. But that's far in the future right?
Well, take a look at it, and try to think backward from that point in time. Who will own all the machines? All the infrastructure? Certainly not me or my children. Probably not yours. My guess is about 10,000 or so people will end up owning it all.
Now, up until that time, if things were all sunshiny and happy, they'd still need designers/engineers, software programmers, to make this all work. They still will, of course. But not anyone from the USA. Do you expect some other field to open up? I mean, what exactly will be the next big boom? Bio-engineering? Haha. India will get that too.
Why could exporting these current jobs be worse? Because for once, no one can imagine anything new coming along, at least, nothing new that won't be outsourced to somewhere in Asia.
The sorts of jobs that can't be exported, cops, lawyers, fast food workers, etc... they're sort of fixed. This is scary for some, me too. Capitalism may have been better than what came before it, but it's not some magic tool, perfect for every situation. There will come a time when it wears out, and it is going to cause alot of trouble.
I think you're missing a point as well. It's another form of cyclical nature of supply & demand, only this is applied to a labor market.
It is inevitable (barring the extinction of the human race) that this "cyclical nature" eventually resolve itself, change. And then everything we know it worthless, it won't apply. Water continues to decrease in volume as the temperature goes down, you know. It should go on forever... and if you haven't seen it turn into ice before, how are you to know what's going to happen?
The cycle will end, in our lifetimes, or at the very outside, the lifetime of our children. But even before it ends completely, the last few boom/busts could be be very atypical.
Software is yound yet. How many bank tellers, how many accountants at Capitol One HQ will be needed 15 years from now? We can't all be artists, we can't all be day traders. Even the jobs no one expects will be gone, will go eventually. When cars can be piloted automatically, no need for a driver, where do you think the first application will be? It won't be GM or Ford introducing it, it will be Freightliner, and then several hundred thousand truckers are trying to get the same Mcdonald's job I'm trying to get. Then, within a few years, another 100,000 taxi drivers.
Everyone who has read science fiction has seen this coming for the last 50 years. What they didn't forsee, is all the software/design/engineering/architecture jobs disappearing before all this comes to pass.
I'll agree with that but if someone is complaining about the nature of the jobs available
We're not talking someone used to making $80,000 a year having to get cut back to $55k/py. Could you honestly survive with even 2 minimum wage jobs? Since they never give you 40 hours a week, I suppose you could technically work 2.5 of them. I live in a tiny little shithole on the bad side of town, and even then my mortgage is still half what I'd be making with 2.5 MickyD jobs.
IMHO, that is more of an arrogant view of the work they are willing to perform.
It is not even slightly arrogant, to think that the kinds of jobs my ancestors performed 120+ years ago should finally be behind us. That I might actually be able to own a home of my own. Not scuttling around on my hands and knees scrubbing some floor.
There will soon come the day, where the yacht's principle wealth is the design itself. The price of all raw materials is always dropping, and automation will make the labor/construction all but free. I suspect this will be nanotechnology, though the underlying tech could be anything, who can say?
And the day it becomes possible for nanotech to make free, limitless food will be marked down in history as the day half the world's population started starving.
Why is it so difficult for them to not intentionally ruin our economy in the long run? I'm not particularly bright, I see it coming. If they see it happening too, why not avert it?
They don't care? I find that hard to believe, even they won't want to live here, with what the country will become. So, does this means they simply escape to some other tropical island nation?
And, assuming my conclusions aren't wrong, why are there no fixes at all? Can't we put together some legislation to force this to be fixed? Or does that not work either?
do you want to move out of your plush apartment into a cheaper rural location and commute (potentially e-commute) to work and cut down your living expenses?
These will be cheaper, when millions are doing the same thing? I'm not an economist, but I would tend to think those rural places won't be that much cheaper either.
There are levels of survival we are willing to accept
This says it all. If not in words, attitude. The implication is that I will have less than I have now. The bait dangling before me, is the (probable) illusion that I'll have only less, and not nothing.
You mean short-term, it isn't a good idea. 30 years from now, after it's long too late, maybe they'll have other ideas.
That is, if all the executives that made obscene bonuses from gutting our economy, if they don't flee to Rio to live on a beach.
So, you're saying they're not indirectly customers?
I mean, if Oracle's direct customer is Ford, and Ford's customers are these IT workers... why will Ford need database software after there is no one left to sell cars to?
Sure, maybe it's great for the country overall..
What ever gave you this idea? Look at our economy. Even the talking heads have trouble describing it as the end of the recession, and they usually like lying to us.
And everyone seems to forget that their are no new fields to go into.
They may find that now but wait until the state of the programmer in India and other places change. As people's standard of living increases, their demands increase until one day they will not be cheaper anymore.
What you describe, is somethign along the lines of "after it all averages out". Sorry, but I don't want the job back after my pay is averaged against the per capita of Buttfuckistan ($346 per year).
300 million americans, 1 billion indians. We're at the high range. They're the low. Averages, "evening out", etc... it just can't be in our favor.
That money CAN be recovered anyway in the form of exports to India
Haha! We're *supposed* to be a service economy. We don't make anything anymore. What will be export? I mean, other than technical jobs?
Maybe they never had the choice but my guess is that if all the programmers at a company banded together and sent a note to upper managment saying they would match the savings in pay and benefit cuts
Maybe if management stopped to wonder if there would be anyone left that could afford their product 10 years from now, they'd hesitate too. And it doesn't matter much what product either... think a homeless former programmer needs a bank account? But they won't. Management is counting on the "other" company to employ them, to pay them, so they can open their checking account. Too bad the "other" company is thinking the same thing.
I could be wrong.
Proving, with little doubt, that you're smarter than alot of the other people commenting on this story.
You're missing the point. If only a few go into "creative" positions, how is this a solution for an evaporating job market?
150 million working age americans can have jobs that by definition number in the thousands? I'm all for creativity, but some people just need a job to put food on the table.