It is axiomatic that the effectiveness of the lecture depends on the lecturer. Not every professor is a star, but I still remember many of the best lecturers from my university days 40 years later. And often when I am learning something new these notables, whose effect on me lingers still, continue to inform my intellectual development. For example I learned to speak Russian quite well later in life. And as I progressed I often thought when I heard myself gabbling away in Russian, "Damn! If only my old Russian professor Lehrman could hear me now." Learning owes much to motivation. And a great performer at the chalk board showing off can produce wonder in his audience. This triggers a desire to delve more deeply into the subject at hand in an active manner. It is a human thing.
Moreover, the best lecturers always posed questions and encouraged participation -- Socratic teaching. We become moved to display to these role models our own enthusiasm and progress. So, though I kind of agree that the lecture method is limited as a way to actually impart information and to transfer information -- programmed instruction and laboratory work are better at this -- I disagree that the lecture is dead. It is in the lecture that the instructor challenges and inspires. She or he sets an example of erudition to be emulated.
But I will end where I began by confessing that this does depend on the lecturer. And, if they merely phone in their time at the chalkboard, then they can actually do more harm than good. When I drew those people I usually just dropped their classes if I could.
When Google shut down its RSS reader I noodled around and landed on Feedly. They try to upsell me all the time, but it is not a big annoyance. Their free service feels like RSS, and I think it still uses RSS. I have a broad range of periodicals covered in my feed. Maybe 50. From the Register to Variety to the NYT. With a couple of the periodicals I actually pay for e-subs sao I can read in. I can parse headlines nationally in about an hour. I never look at Facebook for news.. Or Google much either. It is creepafied by my past viewing. How can something be new if it is always based on my past habits. It produces a fallacy like Amazon's shopping tracker, which is a hoot with the crap it serves up. I do not want news tailored to my past interests by a bot. I want human editors in quality publications to tell me what is interesting TODAY. Same reason I don't like robot radio streams. I listen to Radio Paradise, a human-curated eclectic stream and I get informed and surprised by some people who know and love music. The expression gets used, but in reality it is sort of hard to actually surprise one's self. Much easier if somebody else does that job for you.
For 350 clams they better be. Not saying my cheaper gear was better or even as good. Just saying that for one sixth of the price I get a serviceable device which is by far better than the phones issued on the plane. By far. Good enough to really improve my journey. Oh, and they are too cheap to come with their own app. Another plus IMHO.
As an experiment I bought a pair of Noisehush for fifty bucks on sale. I mainly use them on flights and -- surprise -- they really make a difference. Probably not as effective as the Bose dampers for sure... But they kill the jet noise and cabin chatter and let me get immersed in my content. They are a little cheaply made IMHO and required a minor hack to the keep battery cover in place. They use AAA batteries. I keep spares in the case. They last 120 hours. I don't know.... A quick battery swap vs a recharge? Anyway. Not a problem. Seeing this article I get the warm glow of schadenfreude because I always envied people their pricey Bose jobs. I imagined them in 350 bucks worth of private solitude. Not any more. Not. Any. More. Bose Bitchez.
Thanks for your informative and interesting reply. What a story! And how does a state manage to make a legal business illegal and get away with it? Corruption pure and simple as you indicated. Seems to me that the left could get some real traction in this area in the future. I wonder what the status of utility and communication cooperatives is nationally. A review would make a good Wired article IMHO. You know. Technology and culture.
So behavioral psychologists are only interested in behavior. So you create an AI that is responding predictably and consistently after simulation and training -- even to novelty. Is it absolutely necessary to know what is going on in the black box? Especially if the device outperforms a human driver. I agree that it is unsettling not to know. Since we have no good theory of mind it is actually unsurprising that when we create a device that seems to have one we don't know exactly what is going on. I think it is pretty cool, actually.
Currently in Ulaanbaatar, which has some of the most aggressive and undisciplined driving I have ever seen. I would love to see the AI that could field these dudes and dudettes. Combat ready!
You know a robo hybrid is not that far off. Volvo is testing 100 cars in Gothenburg as I write. Their idea is to have the car drive when it is boring and the driver take over when he or she wishes or when high skill is needed. Works for me.
In reference to an article yesterday on a similar topic I posted the following link to a functioning co-op. Co-ops take leadership, but they can really serve the public good in ways that a government bureaucracy or a for-profit cannot. Not a panacea, but the Maryland Broadband Cooperative has a pretty good record I think. As states outlaw municipal broadband it seems to me that this kind of institution is one that they can't sensibly outlaw. They could try, of course, an no doubt will. Anyway, MDBC has put a lot of fiber into the countryside.
It is difficult to predict how a person reacts, also. Because, well, we don't exactly know how we work either. The solution has always been simulation and training. Plenty of instruction for plane pilots, but -- tragically -- hardly any for cars. IMHO even the pseudo AIs we have now will do better in most situations than the majority of poorly-trained, distracted, intoxicated, hung-over people currently at the wheel. Nearly 30K dead every year. I want you all in robo cars now. But I'll keep my Land Cruiser, thank you.
From Wikipedia "A cooperative (also known as co-operative, co-op, or coop) is an autonomous association of people united voluntarily to meet their common economic, social and cultural needs and aspirations through a jointly owned and democratically controlled business."
I wonder if a state could successfully outlaw a cooperative corporation? IANAL but it seems to me that if they tried they would fail if the co-op had enough public support. And what would the courts say? Now, admittedly, my state of Maryland is bluer than a B.B. King discography. It turns out to have what appears to be a vibrant broadband co-op. which is taking broadband to Southern Maryland. S. Maryland was very rural when I was a boy, but it is now an X-Urb. It seems to me that with some leadership a locality that wanted broadband badly enough could form a co-op if the voters were on board. Anybody have any experience with this?
Years ago I was gifted a book by some very nice people after I gave a talk. The book was How to Develop a Super Power Memory by
Harry Lorayne. It was full of practical mnemonics and methods to remember numbers, peoples' names etc. etc. It also delved into the history of the use of memory. The take away? The brain is like a muscle. Use it or lose it. I never became obsessed on the subject, but twenty years later I still use many of the tools outlined in the book to remember things. Mindfullness is a big fad these days. But really it is just watching what you are doing, paying attention, remembering what you need to remember. Like anything else it is a skill that can be sharpened using a set of tried and true tools.
Now permit me to digress onto a related topic. A lot of sturm und drang these days about the dangers of AI. I for one am not too panicked by the prospect of Skynet and its ilk. But to my mind one of the very real downsides of AI is the offloading of memory tasks and degradation of important human abilities. The brain is energy efficient (read: lazy ass) if it knows something is recorded elsewhere or readily available elsewhere it will be more likely to forget it. Look at how our geographic sense deteriorates with GPS.
These days I make an effort not to always Google something the moment I can't summon it into memory. I will give it time and the name of the actress or politician or writer will often percolate up. And if I am returning to a place for a second time I try to visualize my route beforehand and leave my navigation system out of it. Sure. If I am tormented endlessly, or in a heated conversation, or lost, or pressed for time, it makes sense to resort to the computational oxygen around me. But I try to avoid over dependency on it all.
Eating -- I mean with a plate and fork -- Make-up application -- Hair Styling -- Turning Around Completely to talk -- Sex -- Urination (I think) -- Photography (Camera and Phone) I know I have seen other stuff. Feel free to add to the list.
You know, I have recently become more aware of how distracting getting audio is these days. In days gone by the car only had a radio with punch buttons for favorites (Provided one set them). Or later slotting in an 8 Track, a cassette, or CD was not too crazy (not always that safe admittedly) But even tuning the radio dial could be done with eyes on the road. One tuned in by ear, of course.
But now? In my new car with the 9 inch touch screen. Bluetooth, Spotify, Sirius XM and all manner of stuff on the console (Not to mention Sat Nav). It's cool, but to be safe it should at least be teed up while stationary. Touch screen to drill down through menus in traffic? Tempting but relatively distracting. (I confess to succumbing to the temptation on occasion.) If content is from my Android phone I can use voice control, which I like. And hands freeis okay. But truth be told even yakking takes some processing power of the driving task.
I would like to have self drive for the boring bits. Volvo is close to launching a workable solution. Testing a hundred SD cars in real world in Sweden right now. Full manual for when I am in control. Driver Assist nanny randomly kicking in while I am in control would make me unhappy. I drive as mindfully as I can. No daydreaming to the extent possible. Eyes on the road reading down lane. Fully present behind the wheel with active situational awareness using mirrors.. My motivation? Calculating the amount of kinetic energy I have accumulated straddling a controlled gasoline bomb in a steel and plastic egg.
Would truly superior beings be oppressive? Maybe. Perhaps what our Genetically Enhanced successors gain in intelligence they would also gain in wisdom. I think the education of such beings would be of critical importance. Public school might not be such a good idea. Cheers
I really learned something from your comment. It really put some meat on the bone, Yes, for the reasons you so clearly stated, whatever the Chinese do with gene tech will not be pretty or even handed. One would hope that we can move forward with more decency and with a higher ethical standard... But move forward we must. And quickly.
Once upon a time dissecting people was thought unholy, but renaissance physicians like Vessalius did it anyway, risking anything from excommunication to death. Medical progress has always been hampered from time to time by unfounded pseudoreligeous fears.
CRISPR is awesome progress. Germline enhancement is clearly the next step. Certainly a generation of smarter stronger humans can do better with things than we have. China will have no compunctions going towards enhancement. We should not allow squeamishness to prevent us from literally making better people. It won't be hard. The bar is not very high.
I was pleased to read that some of the tape enthusiasts saw the lack of fidelity as a feature not a bug. Music can be enjoyed in very low fi. Over an AM radio for example. And Old 78s of Opera and Jazz are prized. I think the appeal of vinyl is in the warmth that comes with just a taste noise. Not noisy noise, just a little. Like Vaseline on a lens. Or an old faded print. Tube amplifiers produce warm sound with power to boot. We like white noise: ocean sounds; an air conditioner humming away on a hot night. The thrum of a diesel as one shoos through the night dozing in one's first class coupe.
You know this made me glad I kept those old cassettes and the 80s vintage stereo to play them on. Think I'll spin up some Blondie.... maybe Prince.
Memory and intelligence are not synonymous, but are obviously closely linked. Years ago, after a talk I gave, the hosts gifted me with a plaque and a few items, the most useful of which was a book called Super Power Memory by the mentalist Harry Lorayne. It was one of the most practical books I have ever read. It contains dozens of ways to effectively improve memory. I am no mentalist but the book taught me the importance of training and using my memory. The enormous computational and memory power available to us currently lets us offload a tremendous amount of information. And it is now easier to retrieve a fuzzy but known fact via a search engine than it is to dredge it from memory. Of course when we write stuff down we are offloading somewhat, But networked computers, and especially AI, are taking more and more memory-related tasks off of our shoulders as they watch and record what we do and where we go. We don't have to so much as tap a key -- not to mention put pen to paper -- to get useful information. Sometimes this is cool, and sometimes it is downright creepy.
This new AR patent seems a bit insidious to me. Memory needs to be used and nurtured to function properly. Like any physical process it responds positively to well-structured exercise. The opposite is also true. There is pretty good evidence that use of GPS mapping tools weakens our ability to remember directions. This Microsoft AR feature set seems to me another worrisome crutch that will enable us to live less mindfully and, in all probability, less intelligently. It is arguable that having an AI in an AR remember all the little stuff is like a CEO who has an executive assistant to cover those bases -- a human one. Theoretically this lets the boss remember and concentrate on the important stuff in order to make optimal and intelligent choices and to solve problems creatively. I leave it to the reader to decide how this coddling actually affects the intelligence and effectiveness of most well-attended CEO's.
The ancients developed powerful memory strategies to assist in everyday life. To see a prime example of one of these useful tools take a look at Cicero's Method of Loci or Memory Palace. Do yourself a favor. From time to time use the old thinker. Memorize a route as in the days of yore. Pick a place to put your keys and wallet. A Roman General would know the name and face of each of the men under his command, typically two legions or about 10,000. Why? Because on payday he would watch each man get his salary. No man dared stand in line twice with the General in attendance of the paymaster.
I love technology or I would not be posting here. I really have no fear that AI will take over the world. But I do see a pretty real threat that as AI and its cousins AR and VR improve (and we know they will) they could wind up doing some subtle and very ungood things to our minds as an unintended consequence. The same kind of thing that comfy office chair does to our core. Atrophy. That is, unless we choose to do a bit of tiresome exercise from time to time.
Full disclosure. I do sometimes forget where my wallet and my phone is -- but only sometimes.
The big software companies MS, Google and Apple have worked hard to turn computers into internet and productivity appliances. They succeeded. And appliances are far from fun. One can have some fun playing games on PCs if one wishes. And one can run productivity software to compute statistical projections etc. And if one is a statistician then that might be fun. Or art software can be used to create fun stuff. And let's not forget music software for composition and listening. But the computing? That is, the tweaking and customization are gone from these platforms. And by design. At least for most users. Users to a person don't want any fun 'computing'.
I have a Chromebook. It is a fast and spookily reliable internet appliance. I have fun from it sometimes when I get it to stream a cool fun show. (Really enjoyed "The Expanse" looking forward to seeing season two.) But, sadly, I never have fun getting it to do something it is supposed to do, but won't. No fun at all. Damn thing just works. But I recall so many funfilled hours spent trying to get a sound card to work on my trusty 386. I just love the $#!+ out of com ports and interrupts. Some people find Sudoku fun. Me it's finding the right sound driver on a Taiwanese website. But sadly my Chromebook and my wife's Windows 10 Zen Ultrabook just work. Any little bit of fun I have is with the stuff I do with them. (I long ago got bored with Apple's appliance-like reliability and so do not own that hardware. The thrill was gone.)
But Linux is a different story. Good old Linux. I load it onto older hardware in anticipation of the hours of pure joy it will bring. I distro hop until the stuff like the wifi and sound works (mostly). Then I spend endless fun hours searching forums for the commands I need to get the non-working stuff to work. The days of modifying a config file on Windows are gone (mostly) because, well, one does not have to do so in order to get critical functionality. Not so with Linux. Linux offers endless opportunities for computing fun. I am not being sarcastic. Some like a crossword puzzle. Me? Give me an unsupported-on-Linux video card for which I can have fun finding and installing a driver with NDISWrapper. I had a lot of fun installing Gentoo once. Took nearly a dayand a night, but I got it done. Satisfying fun that. One can still squeeze a lot of computing fun out of Linux. My phone's Android system is a blast, too. Just imagine the barrel of fun I had resetting my little palm sized supercomputer (by 1980's standards) to factory settings after the WIFI refused to work. And take it from me: there is a ton of fun to be had in downloading and installing one's apps after they get erased by a reset. If you are looking for computing fun then it is open source all the way.
I saw a short TV report about Volvo's autonomous car program. The idea is that the car will drive itself when driving is boring, and under good conditions. Roads in Sweden are usually very well marked BTW. They are actually testing a significant number of cars in Gothenburg.
When conditions merit human control the car will signal the driver to take control. If this does not happen in a reasonable amount of time the car will pull out of traffic and stop. The stated goal is zero deaths in Volvos by 2020. Also the CEO said that the liability issue was simple. Volvo would take full responsibility. He added that any company unwilling to own the consequences of this tech had no business making it. The interior of the car was modified so that the driver could do other stuff during the "boring" bits. I remember this because I cannot wait for autonomous cars to really start saving lives (Maybe my own). Thirty thousand dead in car crashes every year in the US alone. Let me count the ways. Okay. Maybe not right now.
One or two more thoughts with respect to an automation levy. Firstly all state of the art automation that is replacing people should be taxed expressly and disproportionately. One could also allow for less depreciation on such equipment. Also deep learning machines -- like the ones that can replace para legals -- should get taxed more. No need to quibble about what constitutes AI. Just look at function and human displacement.
One more thing. What about a carrot? Reward companies with tax relief when they retain and use people through retraining etc.. We need a strategy to amortize this robot revolution. To ignore the repercussions is to court social disaster. I have lived in many countries where all front yards have walls and guards. Would hate to see my dear US disintegrate into that kind of place... Gated communities are bad enough.
Appreciate your point that an AI levy is a tax on profits. However, profits taken from productivity increases caused by automation come at the expense of the size of the workforce. Old fashioned automation historically balanced out in the end. But there is far more concern over what effect AI powered automatons will have on employment. An AI levy taxes taxes these profits disproportionately to do two things: A) Slow the pace of adoption and B) Reclaim value lost to society and the economy caused by moving jobs away from human hands. People can and will adapt to a new reality. And it might be a better reality. Artisan-centered work is more rewarding than work on a line. The shift will take time. Hence a levy to ease the transition through training and social supports (resources).
I believe Universal Basic Resources would be better. That is : Minimums for food, shelter, clothing, healthcare. And...okay... some cash.. How to pay? Let me float an idea. I am thinking some form of automation levy. A sort of income tax for robots -- based to some extent on the jobs they eliminate as well as those they are able to eliminate and the increase in productivity they allow.
I am no economist but an AI levy seems to be a logical servant of the public good. This levy could also slow the transition from man to machine for production and labor. People will then be freer move to more artisan-like forms of activity, especially since they have a base of support. They can raise their status and income by being good at what they do. In this future handmade and homemade will bring even more rewards than at present. The arts could flourish. Nobody wants to see a robot act or hear one sing.
This may sound like Utopian hogwash, but something will have to be done. CEOs may not want to pay people for making their stuff, but they will need people to buy it. We will have to segue from a mass production economy on to something else. And, yes, I understand that the current political climate is antagonistic to progressive ideas such as these, but the pendulum will swing the other way. Sooner.... or later.
I completely agree with you. My read is that the polls caused complacency on the part of the stay crowd. I think now that the Torries are paying lip service to Brexit, but are slowboating the process until they can get another referendum or, as we see here, a vote in Parliament that allows the party in power to say, "Oh dear! Those lefties tied our hands. We cannot leave."
The referendum was not binding after all. It was a sop to the right that backfired. The Brexiters are a needed if despised constituency by the Conservative Establishment (as is our far right here in the US) but the Conservatives dare not alienate them. Let us remember that Parliament is 70% against an exit anyway.
Let me go on record by saying that Brexit will not happen. There will be smoke and more smoke signaling Brexit. Smoke, but no fire, just a smoke machine. The EU has made it clear it will not give the UK a soft landing. And why should it? An easy out for the UK would only embolden other restive members. The conservatives will lose every young person in the country forever if they let Brexit go through. And let us not forget Scotland.
But they won't let it happen. How can the UK leave the Common Market that has fed prosperity (on and off) since the end of WWII? Cannot and won't. Wait and see.
Slashdot Mirror
It is axiomatic that the effectiveness of the lecture depends on the lecturer. Not every professor is a star, but I still remember many of the best lecturers from my university days 40 years later. And often when I am learning something new these notables, whose effect on me lingers still, continue to inform my intellectual development. For example I learned to speak Russian quite well later in life. And as I progressed I often thought when I heard myself gabbling away in Russian, "Damn! If only my old Russian professor Lehrman could hear me now." Learning owes much to motivation. And a great performer at the chalk board showing off can produce wonder in his audience. This triggers a desire to delve more deeply into the subject at hand in an active manner. It is a human thing.
Moreover, the best lecturers always posed questions and encouraged participation -- Socratic teaching. We become moved to display to these role models our own enthusiasm and progress. So, though I kind of agree that the lecture method is limited as a way to actually impart information and to transfer information -- programmed instruction and laboratory work are better at this -- I disagree that the lecture is dead. It is in the lecture that the instructor challenges and inspires. She or he sets an example of erudition to be emulated.
But I will end where I began by confessing that this does depend on the lecturer. And, if they merely phone in their time at the chalkboard, then they can actually do more harm than good. When I drew those people I usually just dropped their classes if I could.
When Google shut down its RSS reader I noodled around and landed on Feedly. They try to upsell me all the time, but it is not a big annoyance. Their free service feels like RSS, and I think it still uses RSS. I have a broad range of periodicals covered in my feed. Maybe 50. From the Register to Variety to the NYT. With a couple of the periodicals I actually pay for e-subs sao I can read in. I can parse headlines nationally in about an hour. I never look at Facebook for news.. Or Google much either. It is creepafied by my past viewing. How can something be new if it is always based on my past habits. It produces a fallacy like Amazon's shopping tracker, which is a hoot with the crap it serves up. I do not want news tailored to my past interests by a bot. I want human editors in quality publications to tell me what is interesting TODAY. Same reason I don't like robot radio streams. I listen to Radio Paradise, a human-curated eclectic stream and I get informed and surprised by some people who know and love music. The expression gets used, but in reality it is sort of hard to actually surprise one's self. Much easier if somebody else does that job for you.
"The Internet of Things is Beginning to Manure."
For 350 clams they better be. Not saying my cheaper gear was better or even as good. Just saying that for one sixth of the price I get a serviceable device which is by far better than the phones issued on the plane. By far. Good enough to really improve my journey. Oh, and they are too cheap to come with their own app. Another plus IMHO.
As an experiment I bought a pair of Noisehush for fifty bucks on sale. I mainly use them on flights and -- surprise -- they really make a difference. Probably not as effective as the Bose dampers for sure... But they kill the jet noise and cabin chatter and let me get immersed in my content. They are a little cheaply made IMHO and required a minor hack to the keep battery cover in place. They use AAA batteries. I keep spares in the case. They last 120 hours. I don't know.... A quick battery swap vs a recharge? Anyway. Not a problem. Seeing this article I get the warm glow of schadenfreude because I always envied people their pricey Bose jobs. I imagined them in 350 bucks worth of private solitude. Not any more. Not. Any. More. Bose Bitchez.
Thanks for your informative and interesting reply. What a story! And how does a state manage to make a legal business illegal and get away with it? Corruption pure and simple as you indicated. Seems to me that the left could get some real traction in this area in the future. I wonder what the status of utility and communication cooperatives is nationally. A review would make a good Wired article IMHO. You know. Technology and culture.
So behavioral psychologists are only interested in behavior. So you create an AI that is responding predictably and consistently after simulation and training -- even to novelty. Is it absolutely necessary to know what is going on in the black box? Especially if the device outperforms a human driver. I agree that it is unsettling not to know. Since we have no good theory of mind it is actually unsurprising that when we create a device that seems to have one we don't know exactly what is going on. I think it is pretty cool, actually.
Currently in Ulaanbaatar, which has some of the most aggressive and undisciplined driving I have ever seen. I would love to see the AI that could field these dudes and dudettes. Combat ready!
You know a robo hybrid is not that far off. Volvo is testing 100 cars in Gothenburg as I write. Their idea is to have the car drive when it is boring and the driver take over when he or she wishes or when high skill is needed. Works for me.
In reference to an article yesterday on a similar topic I posted the following link to a functioning co-op. Co-ops take leadership, but they can really serve the public good in ways that a government bureaucracy or a for-profit cannot. Not a panacea, but the Maryland Broadband Cooperative has a pretty good record I think. As states outlaw municipal broadband it seems to me that this kind of institution is one that they can't sensibly outlaw. They could try, of course, an no doubt will. Anyway, MDBC has put a lot of fiber into the countryside.
Something funny indeed d :-)
It is difficult to predict how a person reacts, also. Because, well, we don't exactly know how we work either. The solution has always been simulation and training. Plenty of instruction for plane pilots, but -- tragically -- hardly any for cars. IMHO even the pseudo AIs we have now will do better in most situations than the majority of poorly-trained, distracted, intoxicated, hung-over people currently at the wheel. Nearly 30K dead every year. I want you all in robo cars now. But I'll keep my Land Cruiser, thank you.
From Wikipedia "A cooperative (also known as co-operative, co-op, or coop) is an autonomous association of people united voluntarily to meet their common economic, social and cultural needs and aspirations through a jointly owned and democratically controlled business."
I wonder if a state could successfully outlaw a cooperative corporation? IANAL but it seems to me that if they tried they would fail if the co-op had enough public support. And what would the courts say? Now, admittedly, my state of Maryland is bluer than a B.B. King discography. It turns out to have what appears to be a vibrant broadband co-op. which is taking broadband to Southern Maryland. S. Maryland was very rural when I was a boy, but it is now an X-Urb. It seems to me that with some leadership a locality that wanted broadband badly enough could form a co-op if the voters were on board. Anybody have any experience with this?
Years ago I was gifted a book by some very nice people after I gave a talk. The book was How to Develop a Super Power Memory by Harry Lorayne. It was full of practical mnemonics and methods to remember numbers, peoples' names etc. etc. It also delved into the history of the use of memory. The take away? The brain is like a muscle. Use it or lose it. I never became obsessed on the subject, but twenty years later I still use many of the tools outlined in the book to remember things. Mindfullness is a big fad these days. But really it is just watching what you are doing, paying attention, remembering what you need to remember. Like anything else it is a skill that can be sharpened using a set of tried and true tools.
Now permit me to digress onto a related topic. A lot of sturm und drang these days about the dangers of AI. I for one am not too panicked by the prospect of Skynet and its ilk. But to my mind one of the very real downsides of AI is the offloading of memory tasks and degradation of important human abilities. The brain is energy efficient (read: lazy ass) if it knows something is recorded elsewhere or readily available elsewhere it will be more likely to forget it. Look at how our geographic sense deteriorates with GPS.
These days I make an effort not to always Google something the moment I can't summon it into memory. I will give it time and the name of the actress or politician or writer will often percolate up. And if I am returning to a place for a second time I try to visualize my route beforehand and leave my navigation system out of it. Sure. If I am tormented endlessly, or in a heated conversation, or lost, or pressed for time, it makes sense to resort to the computational oxygen around me. But I try to avoid over dependency on it all.
Eating -- I mean with a plate and fork -- Make-up application -- Hair Styling -- Turning Around Completely to talk -- Sex -- Urination (I think) -- Photography (Camera and Phone) I know I have seen other stuff. Feel free to add to the list.
You know, I have recently become more aware of how distracting getting audio is these days. In days gone by the car only had a radio with punch buttons for favorites (Provided one set them). Or later slotting in an 8 Track, a cassette, or CD was not too crazy (not always that safe admittedly) But even tuning the radio dial could be done with eyes on the road. One tuned in by ear, of course.
But now? In my new car with the 9 inch touch screen. Bluetooth, Spotify, Sirius XM and all manner of stuff on the console (Not to mention Sat Nav). It's cool, but to be safe it should at least be teed up while stationary. Touch screen to drill down through menus in traffic? Tempting but relatively distracting. (I confess to succumbing to the temptation on occasion.) If content is from my Android phone I can use voice control, which I like. And hands freeis okay. But truth be told even yakking takes some processing power of the driving task.
I would like to have self drive for the boring bits. Volvo is close to launching a workable solution. Testing a hundred SD cars in real world in Sweden right now. Full manual for when I am in control. Driver Assist nanny randomly kicking in while I am in control would make me unhappy. I drive as mindfully as I can. No daydreaming to the extent possible. Eyes on the road reading down lane. Fully present behind the wheel with active situational awareness using mirrors.. My motivation? Calculating the amount of kinetic energy I have accumulated straddling a controlled gasoline bomb in a steel and plastic egg.
Would truly superior beings be oppressive? Maybe. Perhaps what our Genetically Enhanced successors gain in intelligence they would also gain in wisdom. I think the education of such beings would be of critical importance. Public school might not be such a good idea. Cheers
I really learned something from your comment. It really put some meat on the bone, Yes, for the reasons you so clearly stated, whatever the Chinese do with gene tech will not be pretty or even handed. One would hope that we can move forward with more decency and with a higher ethical standard... But move forward we must. And quickly.
Once upon a time dissecting people was thought unholy, but renaissance physicians like Vessalius did it anyway, risking anything from excommunication to death. Medical progress has always been hampered from time to time by unfounded pseudoreligeous fears.
CRISPR is awesome progress. Germline enhancement is clearly the next step. Certainly a generation of smarter stronger humans can do better with things than we have. China will have no compunctions going towards enhancement. We should not allow squeamishness to prevent us from literally making better people. It won't be hard. The bar is not very high.
Option one: You can run it like a kindergarden.
Option two: You can run it like a university.
Each has it own merits for management. But most of us would choose to be a worker in an option-two company.
I was pleased to read that some of the tape enthusiasts saw the lack of fidelity as a feature not a bug. Music can be enjoyed in very low fi. Over an AM radio for example. And Old 78s of Opera and Jazz are prized. I think the appeal of vinyl is in the warmth that comes with just a taste noise. Not noisy noise, just a little. Like Vaseline on a lens. Or an old faded print. Tube amplifiers produce warm sound with power to boot. We like white noise: ocean sounds; an air conditioner humming away on a hot night. The thrum of a diesel as one shoos through the night dozing in one's first class coupe.
You know this made me glad I kept those old cassettes and the 80s vintage stereo to play them on. Think I'll spin up some Blondie.... maybe Prince.
Memory and intelligence are not synonymous, but are obviously closely linked. Years ago, after a talk I gave, the hosts gifted me with a plaque and a few items, the most useful of which was a book called Super Power Memory by the mentalist Harry Lorayne. It was one of the most practical books I have ever read. It contains dozens of ways to effectively improve memory. I am no mentalist but the book taught me the importance of training and using my memory. The enormous computational and memory power available to us currently lets us offload a tremendous amount of information. And it is now easier to retrieve a fuzzy but known fact via a search engine than it is to dredge it from memory. Of course when we write stuff down we are offloading somewhat, But networked computers, and especially AI, are taking more and more memory-related tasks off of our shoulders as they watch and record what we do and where we go. We don't have to so much as tap a key -- not to mention put pen to paper -- to get useful information. Sometimes this is cool, and sometimes it is downright creepy.
This new AR patent seems a bit insidious to me. Memory needs to be used and nurtured to function properly. Like any physical process it responds positively to well-structured exercise. The opposite is also true. There is pretty good evidence that use of GPS mapping tools weakens our ability to remember directions. This Microsoft AR feature set seems to me another worrisome crutch that will enable us to live less mindfully and, in all probability, less intelligently. It is arguable that having an AI in an AR remember all the little stuff is like a CEO who has an executive assistant to cover those bases -- a human one. Theoretically this lets the boss remember and concentrate on the important stuff in order to make optimal and intelligent choices and to solve problems creatively. I leave it to the reader to decide how this coddling actually affects the intelligence and effectiveness of most well-attended CEO's.
The ancients developed powerful memory strategies to assist in everyday life. To see a prime example of one of these useful tools take a look at Cicero's Method of Loci or Memory Palace. Do yourself a favor. From time to time use the old thinker. Memorize a route as in the days of yore. Pick a place to put your keys and wallet. A Roman General would know the name and face of each of the men under his command, typically two legions or about 10,000. Why? Because on payday he would watch each man get his salary. No man dared stand in line twice with the General in attendance of the paymaster.
I love technology or I would not be posting here. I really have no fear that AI will take over the world. But I do see a pretty real threat that as AI and its cousins AR and VR improve (and we know they will) they could wind up doing some subtle and very ungood things to our minds as an unintended consequence. The same kind of thing that comfy office chair does to our core. Atrophy. That is, unless we choose to do a bit of tiresome exercise from time to time.
Full disclosure. I do sometimes forget where my wallet and my phone is -- but only sometimes.
I have a Chromebook. It is a fast and spookily reliable internet appliance. I have fun from it sometimes when I get it to stream a cool fun show. (Really enjoyed "The Expanse" looking forward to seeing season two.) But, sadly, I never have fun getting it to do something it is supposed to do, but won't. No fun at all. Damn thing just works. But I recall so many funfilled hours spent trying to get a sound card to work on my trusty 386. I just love the $#!+ out of com ports and interrupts. Some people find Sudoku fun. Me it's finding the right sound driver on a Taiwanese website. But sadly my Chromebook and my wife's Windows 10 Zen Ultrabook just work. Any little bit of fun I have is with the stuff I do with them. (I long ago got bored with Apple's appliance-like reliability and so do not own that hardware. The thrill was gone.)
But Linux is a different story. Good old Linux. I load it onto older hardware in anticipation of the hours of pure joy it will bring. I distro hop until the stuff like the wifi and sound works (mostly). Then I spend endless fun hours searching forums for the commands I need to get the non-working stuff to work. The days of modifying a config file on Windows are gone (mostly) because, well, one does not have to do so in order to get critical functionality. Not so with Linux. Linux offers endless opportunities for computing fun. I am not being sarcastic. Some like a crossword puzzle. Me? Give me an unsupported-on-Linux video card for which I can have fun finding and installing a driver with NDISWrapper. I had a lot of fun installing Gentoo once. Took nearly a dayand a night, but I got it done. Satisfying fun that. One can still squeeze a lot of computing fun out of Linux. My phone's Android system is a blast, too. Just imagine the barrel of fun I had resetting my little palm sized supercomputer (by 1980's standards) to factory settings after the WIFI refused to work. And take it from me: there is a ton of fun to be had in downloading and installing one's apps after they get erased by a reset. If you are looking for computing fun then it is open source all the way.
I saw a short TV report about Volvo's autonomous car program. The idea is that the car will drive itself when driving is boring, and under good conditions. Roads in Sweden are usually very well marked BTW. They are actually testing a significant number of cars in Gothenburg.
When conditions merit human control the car will signal the driver to take control. If this does not happen in a reasonable amount of time the car will pull out of traffic and stop. The stated goal is zero deaths in Volvos by 2020. Also the CEO said that the liability issue was simple. Volvo would take full responsibility. He added that any company unwilling to own the consequences of this tech had no business making it. The interior of the car was modified so that the driver could do other stuff during the "boring" bits. I remember this because I cannot wait for autonomous cars to really start saving lives (Maybe my own). Thirty thousand dead in car crashes every year in the US alone. Let me count the ways. Okay. Maybe not right now.
One or two more thoughts with respect to an automation levy. Firstly all state of the art automation that is replacing people should be taxed expressly and disproportionately. One could also allow for less depreciation on such equipment. Also deep learning machines -- like the ones that can replace para legals -- should get taxed more. No need to quibble about what constitutes AI. Just look at function and human displacement.
One more thing. What about a carrot? Reward companies with tax relief when they retain and use people through retraining etc.. We need a strategy to amortize this robot revolution. To ignore the repercussions is to court social disaster. I have lived in many countries where all front yards have walls and guards. Would hate to see my dear US disintegrate into that kind of place... Gated communities are bad enough.
BTW.... Thanks for a good discussion.
d:-b
Appreciate your point that an AI levy is a tax on profits. However, profits taken from productivity increases caused by automation come at the expense of the size of the workforce. Old fashioned automation historically balanced out in the end. But there is far more concern over what effect AI powered automatons will have on employment. An AI levy taxes taxes these profits disproportionately to do two things: A) Slow the pace of adoption and B) Reclaim value lost to society and the economy caused by moving jobs away from human hands. People can and will adapt to a new reality. And it might be a better reality. Artisan-centered work is more rewarding than work on a line. The shift will take time. Hence a levy to ease the transition through training and social supports (resources).
I believe Universal Basic Resources would be better. That is : Minimums for food, shelter, clothing, healthcare. And...okay... some cash.. How to pay? Let me float an idea. I am thinking some form of automation levy. A sort of income tax for robots -- based to some extent on the jobs they eliminate as well as those they are able to eliminate and the increase in productivity they allow.
I am no economist but an AI levy seems to be a logical servant of the public good. This levy could also slow the transition from man to machine for production and labor. People will then be freer move to more artisan-like forms of activity, especially since they have a base of support. They can raise their status and income by being good at what they do. In this future handmade and homemade will bring even more rewards than at present. The arts could flourish. Nobody wants to see a robot act or hear one sing.
This may sound like Utopian hogwash, but something will have to be done. CEOs may not want to pay people for making their stuff, but they will need people to buy it. We will have to segue from a mass production economy on to something else. And, yes, I understand that the current political climate is antagonistic to progressive ideas such as these, but the pendulum will swing the other way. Sooner .... or later.
I completely agree with you. My read is that the polls caused complacency on the part of the stay crowd. I think now that the Torries are paying lip service to Brexit, but are slowboating the process until they can get another referendum or, as we see here, a vote in Parliament that allows the party in power to say, "Oh dear! Those lefties tied our hands. We cannot leave."
The referendum was not binding after all. It was a sop to the right that backfired. The Brexiters are a needed if despised constituency by the Conservative Establishment (as is our far right here in the US) but the Conservatives dare not alienate them. Let us remember that Parliament is 70% against an exit anyway.
Let me go on record by saying that Brexit will not happen. There will be smoke and more smoke signaling Brexit. Smoke, but no fire, just a smoke machine. The EU has made it clear it will not give the UK a soft landing. And why should it? An easy out for the UK would only embolden other restive members. The conservatives will lose every young person in the country forever if they let Brexit go through. And let us not forget Scotland.
But they won't let it happen. How can the UK leave the Common Market that has fed prosperity (on and off) since the end of WWII? Cannot and won't. Wait and see.