Oh good. Climate models that are unphysical, unskilled at prediction and understood by no one are now "basic" science. I dread to ask what "advanced" science looks like.
The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level.
For reference, the 2% confidence level is out past "wild ass guess" territory and approaching "enemy action" land. Feel free to link me up a model that has made a successful prediction. (Side note: only predictions of the future are accepted, so these links need to be about 5 years old, minimum.)
And then there is Pat Frank. He has made a model that more closely matches reality than anything so far put out by the hockey team, but you won't like it. See his essay.and presentation. Watch the presentation, it is fantastic. And be sure to check the math yourself.
I'm actually pretty easy to please in this department. I would like to see some indication that the problem is well understood. Predictions that aren't vague, and that don't need to be "corrected" post hoc would do most of it for me.
But I'm guessing that you have no idea how wobbly the chain is.
I didn't say it wasn't expensive, I said that it wasn't that expensive - in other words it isn't so expensive that no one wants to do it.
Why is my local cable company fighting so hard to break the local monopolies so that they can spend millions of dollars installing brand new fiber plants in towns and rural areas here? Because it is still profitable for them to do so, even after the incumbent drops their prices.
And yes, I've paid for fiber lines, and I've helped install it. I had a hilarious day once when a couple of guys that didn't understand the local soil got a horizontal bore stuck under what was going to become the parking lot of a new building. They drained their whole tank trying to get it out, and I had to call a couple of our volunteer firemen to bring a truck around to pump water for them.
I repeat. You either have a political problem, or an opportunity.
Society requires artifice to survive in a region where nature might reasonably have asked a few more eons to finish a work of creation that was incomplete - Albert Cowdrey
This nation has a large and powerful adversary. Our opponent could cause the United States to lose nearly all her seaborne commerce, to lose her standing as first among trading nations. . ..We are fighting Mother Nature. . ..It's a battle we have to fight day by day, year by year; the health of our economy depends on victory
The Mississippi River, with its sand and silt, has created most of Louisiana, and it could not have done so by remaining in one channel. If it had, southern Louisiana would be a long narrow peninsula reaching into the Gulf of Mexico. Southern Louisiana exists in its present form because the Mississippi River has jumped here and there within an arc about two hundred miles wide, like a pianist playing with one hand - frequently and radically changing course, surging over the left or the right bank to go off in utterly new directions. Always it is the river's purpose to get to the Gulf by the shortest and steepest gradient. As the mouth advances southward and the river lengthens, the gradient declines, the current slows, and sediment builds up the bed. Eventually, it builds up so much that the river spills to one side. Major shifts of that nature have tended to occur roughly once a millennium. The Mississippi's main channel of three thousand years ago is now the quiet water of Bayou Teche, which mimics the shape of the Mississippi. Along Bayou Teche, on the high ground of ancient natural levees, are Jeanerette, Breaux Bridge, Broussard, Olivierâ"arcuate strings of Cajun towns. Eight hundred years before the birth of Christ, the channel was captured from the east. It shifted abruptly and flowed in that direction for about a thousand years. In the second century a.d., it was captured again, and taken south, by the now unprepossessing Bayou Lafourche, which, by the year 1000, was losing its hegemony to the river's present course, through the region that would be known as Plaquemines. By the nineteen-fifties, the Mississippi River had advanced so far past New Orleans and out into the Gulf that it was about to shift again, and its offspring Atchafalaya was ready to receive it. By the route of the Atchafalaya, the distance across the delta plain was a hundred and forty-five miles - well under half the length of the route of the master stream.
For the Mississippi to make such a change was completely natural, but in the interval since the last shift Europeans had settled beside the river, a nation had developed, and the nation could not afford nature. The consequences of the Atchafalaya's conquest of the Mississippi would include but not be limited to the demise of Baton Rouge and the virtual destruction of New Orleans. With its fresh water gone, its harbor a silt bar, its economy disconnected from inland commerce, New Orleans would turn into New Gomorrah.
This has nothing to do with climate. It has nothing to do with "rising sea levels". It has everything to do with 150 years of engineering the Mississippi river. That river flows an ungodly amount of water, and that water picks stuff up and drops it off. Every geographical feature in that area was (mostly) the result of a dynamic equilibrium between sediment deposits and erosion. We've changed the river, and now the land is adjusting to a new equilibrium.
Installing fiber isn't that expensive. I live in a semi-rural area several miles outside of the nearest small town, and 25 miles from the nearest big town, ~50 miles from a city, and ~100 miles from a major metro area. And I have three fiber pedestals near my house, from two different cable companies.
If you don't have two cable plants in your area you either have a political problem, or an opportunity.
The city near me has a political problem. The cable company I get my fiber connection from has their plans drawn up and investment secured to go into that city. They want to invest millions of dollars to install a totally parallel cable plant there, but the politicians keep blocking it, letting the current cable company maintain their monopoly - and charging residents about 50% more than what I'm paying.
What is your problem? Do you need to turn out the crooks on your city council? Or do you need to find investors so that you can build your own fiber ISP?
Because your line about it being too expensive to install a second system is absolute bullshit. That is the bullshit excuse that people use when they want to deflect attention away from their government granted monopoly, and no offense, but people like you repeating it without checking it out critically is not helping anyone.
That shift, from carefully directed accusations of racism for direct actions to more general charges of unconscious racism, took away the carrot for whites. Worse, it led to a defensiveness and feeling of victimization that make todayâ(TM)s whites in many ways much more tribal than they were 30 years ago. White people are constantly told to examine their whiteness, not to think of themselves as racially neutral. That they did, but the result was not introspection that led to reconciliation, it was a decision that white people have just as much right to think of themselves as a special interest group as anyone else.
You will not prevent this development by screaming âoeracism!â. Hereâ(TM)s a hot tip: people you dismiss as retrograde scum will not, in general, vote for you. In fact, one of the things you Democrats most urgently need to do is banish âoeracismâ and âoesexismâ from your political vocabulary.
While these words point at some real problems, they are also a trap. They lead you to organize your political pitch around virtue-signaling, exclusion and demonization. That, in turn, can be successful (though repulsive) politics when itâ(TM)s used against a minority to mobilize a majority or plurality. But youâ(TM)re in the opposite situation now. You were trapped by your own privilege theory. You demonized a plurality of American voters, and in return they gave you Trump.
That's a good way to get into specification-paralysis: assume that the programmers have absolutely no idea what is reasonable and specify everything down to the absolute smallest detail. Might as well just write it yourself if you are going to assume that your programmer is exactly as dumb as the compiler.
Exactly. I'd like to see how they work after 5 years before I commit. I don't like what my current electric heat drier does to my clothes, so I'm very interested in an alternative, but not if it is worse (obviously).
The problem with this is that you'd essentially limit the H1-Bs to Silicon Valley. The salaries there are so much higher than elsewhere in the country for comparable jobs, that companies located in smaller tech centers would have no chance of winning an auction. And, arguably, they are the ones that need more help.
One thing that I've learned in my days is that in a long running system, the condition must be the actual cost. If the condition is anything else, it will be gamed. If you use "local cost of living" or any other proxy as the condition, the same companies will win - they'll just do it by cheating.
By the way, this is one of the two reasons why I reject "clever" voting schemes. A vote should be costly - a protest vote for a no-chance candidate should cost that voter their vote for the lesser of two evils. And if the voter wants to pick their safety candidate, it should cost them the opportunity to cast a protest vote at the same time. If the protest vote has no cost, it is also meaningless.
Sucking in the brightest people from every part of the world and then keeping them and their children is the most anti-social immigration policy possible. Part of the reason that Africa is so fucked up right now is that everyone who could have improved things there now lives in the US or the UK.
They need to go back. They need to lift up their own people, and they can't do that from here.
Well the phone is different because it was not designed to be used while driving. Compare the phone to the climate control or radio controls in a car.
You must have a very cheap and/or very old car. In new cars, pretty much everything above the very bottom of the line is a usability nightmare. Think touchscreens and/or "dynamic" buttons (rows of featureless buttons next to a LCD that displays the current function). Oh, and then there is the shuttle control where you twist and depress a knob to navigate a maze of twisty menus, all alike.
Smart phones at least have the advantage that (when you aren't worried about people seeing you use your phone in the car) you can bring it to your field of driving vision, rather than having to turn your head and sometimes lean your body over to see what you are about to press.
Plus, and I'm going to be called nasty things for saying this, but traffic accidents do not appear to be "way up", like they would be if smart phones were causing a ton of new accidents. I've seen some conjecture that the people who are prone to distraction will find something to distract them, and the problem should be addressed by working with those specific drivers, and not by chasing after the distraction that happens to be most popular at the moment. It will probably take several more years of data to clarify that. (And our data isn't trustworthy, but that is a rant for another day.)
Quarterly auction with an absolute cap on quantity, starting bid of $200,000/year (in total compensation) + 25% fee. Unused slots are lost.
Full salary to be placed in escrow to be paid over time regardless of anything else that happens to the applicant (quits/fired, dies, doesn't enter the country, whatever). Visa is owned and held by the worker, remains valid until 6 months after last day of employment in-country. Criminal penalties for a company officer for failure to report end of employment. Worker is free to seek other companies willing to buy out the current contract during or after employment. Assuming company pays 25% fee on however much compensation is still in escrow. Company can automatically renew for 1 year at the same salary/fee as the first year. After that, they have to bid on another slot.
No offer of citizenship (for anyone until at least 2057). No chain. No anchor. When the worker returns to their old country, they take their children with them. If their old country is poor, we'll offer to lend (with very favorable terms) all fees collected over the years to help the worker establish a practice at home, under certain conditions (no gifts, no bribes, must be a for-profit enterprise that promotes stability, commerce and local employment).
Someone lent her a PC for a while, then she bought us a PCjr and someone from work soldered extra RAM on one of the sidecars. Had some PS/2s in the house.
The first computer that was all mine was a 486 custom build. Learned assembly and C (and a little C++) on it. I used to use the DEBUG program in DOS to program directly on the boot sectors of floppies. If I recall, it didn't understand any instructions past the 286, but I had a little flipbook with 386 codes, so I was able to assemble those instructions myself on graph paper. Got it to boot into protected mode, and had a (very) crude interface by hitting the video registers and memory. (Didn't do too much more with it because Linux was rising around that time and I was soon installing Slackware.)
Cheap chinese knockoffs of Japanese solder reworking tools are now plentiful and, well, cheap. Find the local HAM club - they'll know someone who can fix it right up.
I'm sure you can still find instructions somewhere, and I know that several DIY / wire wrapped computers are extensively photographed online.
You should read Hackers, particularly part 2, for the state of "the scene" in the late 70s. People were forming clubs and starting magazines to pass around schematics and software. By the mid-70s, you could buy proper computers, either in kit form or fully assembled. Making PCBs at home was getting practical too, but wire wrap was still preferred for prototyping.
It embarrassed them - it stripped off the pretend mask of "cool" and let everyone see them as the idiots they are. Go back to the other thread on this and read the vitriol they sling. Who is it directed at? Or, rather, to which comments do they direct their hatred?
someone foolishly allowing themselves to become unconscious in a vulnerable location
Also not an action.
someone that inexplicably left their service accessible to the internet
Ditto.
Let me put it like this. If the rape victim invites the rapist in, undresses her, lifts her onto his penis and pumps - then we'll have the same situation. In both cases, the "victim" is doing all of the work and the "attacker" is merely present. You would laugh at the suggestion that she raped him under those circumstances.
Did BK send something to your phone? No, you did that. Did BK bypass your phone's security? No, you did that. Did BK install, authorize or enable the voice recognition software? No, you did that. Did BK configure your phone to respond to any voice? No, you did that. Did BK configure your phone to access network resources in response to commands? No, you did that.
Actually, no, I won't be telling you any of those things. You will notice that in all of those offenses, the victim hasn't performed any overt action, but in the BK incident, the "victim" did everything. The BK prank relies on about 6 distinct and voluntary actions that the "victim" performed knowingly and willingly.
Did you even fucking read what I posted, or is this just an automatic word-vomit that you keep handy for whenever you think that someone disagrees with you?
Did you sleep through the hundreds of stories in the last few years about phones and laptops with counterfeit batteries bursting into flames? Going to blame them on unregulated cellphone mods?
Slashdot Mirror
Oh good. Climate models that are unphysical, unskilled at prediction and understood by no one are now "basic" science. I dread to ask what "advanced" science looks like.
For reference, the 2% confidence level is out past "wild ass guess" territory and approaching "enemy action" land. Feel free to link me up a model that has made a successful prediction. (Side note: only predictions of the future are accepted, so these links need to be about 5 years old, minimum.)
And then there is Pat Frank. He has made a model that more closely matches reality than anything so far put out by the hockey team, but you won't like it. See his essay.and presentation. Watch the presentation, it is fantastic. And be sure to check the math yourself.
I'm actually pretty easy to please in this department. I would like to see some indication that the problem is well understood. Predictions that aren't vague, and that don't need to be "corrected" post hoc would do most of it for me.
But I'm guessing that you have no idea how wobbly the chain is.
I didn't say it wasn't expensive, I said that it wasn't that expensive - in other words it isn't so expensive that no one wants to do it.
Why is my local cable company fighting so hard to break the local monopolies so that they can spend millions of dollars installing brand new fiber plants in towns and rural areas here? Because it is still profitable for them to do so, even after the incumbent drops their prices.
And yes, I've paid for fiber lines, and I've helped install it. I had a hilarious day once when a couple of guys that didn't understand the local soil got a horizontal bore stuck under what was going to become the parking lot of a new building. They drained their whole tank trying to get it out, and I had to call a couple of our volunteer firemen to bring a truck around to pump water for them.
I repeat. You either have a political problem, or an opportunity.
Articles:
http://www.newyorker.com/magaz...
https://placesjournal.org/arti...
good quotes:
This has nothing to do with climate. It has nothing to do with "rising sea levels". It has everything to do with 150 years of engineering the Mississippi river. That river flows an ungodly amount of water, and that water picks stuff up and drops it off. Every geographical feature in that area was (mostly) the result of a dynamic equilibrium between sediment deposits and erosion. We've changed the river, and now the land is adjusting to a new equilibrium.
Installing fiber isn't that expensive. I live in a semi-rural area several miles outside of the nearest small town, and 25 miles from the nearest big town, ~50 miles from a city, and ~100 miles from a major metro area. And I have three fiber pedestals near my house, from two different cable companies.
If you don't have two cable plants in your area you either have a political problem, or an opportunity.
The city near me has a political problem. The cable company I get my fiber connection from has their plans drawn up and investment secured to go into that city. They want to invest millions of dollars to install a totally parallel cable plant there, but the politicians keep blocking it, letting the current cable company maintain their monopoly - and charging residents about 50% more than what I'm paying.
What is your problem? Do you need to turn out the crooks on your city council? Or do you need to find investors so that you can build your own fiber ISP?
Because your line about it being too expensive to install a second system is absolute bullshit. That is the bullshit excuse that people use when they want to deflect attention away from their government granted monopoly, and no offense, but people like you repeating it without checking it out critically is not helping anyone.
http://thefederalist.com/2016/11/14/election-marks-end-americas-racial-detente/
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=7268
(Apologies for the mangled characters. I just don't care enough to fix them today. Click the links if they bother you.)
Woosh! Right over your head.
That's a good way to get into specification-paralysis: assume that the programmers have absolutely no idea what is reasonable and specify everything down to the absolute smallest detail. Might as well just write it yourself if you are going to assume that your programmer is exactly as dumb as the compiler.
Exactly. I'd like to see how they work after 5 years before I commit. I don't like what my current electric heat drier does to my clothes, so I'm very interested in an alternative, but not if it is worse (obviously).
One thing that I've learned in my days is that in a long running system, the condition must be the actual cost. If the condition is anything else, it will be gamed. If you use "local cost of living" or any other proxy as the condition, the same companies will win - they'll just do it by cheating.
By the way, this is one of the two reasons why I reject "clever" voting schemes. A vote should be costly - a protest vote for a no-chance candidate should cost that voter their vote for the lesser of two evils. And if the voter wants to pick their safety candidate, it should cost them the opportunity to cast a protest vote at the same time. If the protest vote has no cost, it is also meaningless.
Sucking in the brightest people from every part of the world and then keeping them and their children is the most anti-social immigration policy possible. Part of the reason that Africa is so fucked up right now is that everyone who could have improved things there now lives in the US or the UK.
They need to go back. They need to lift up their own people, and they can't do that from here.
You must have a very cheap and/or very old car. In new cars, pretty much everything above the very bottom of the line is a usability nightmare. Think touchscreens and/or "dynamic" buttons (rows of featureless buttons next to a LCD that displays the current function). Oh, and then there is the shuttle control where you twist and depress a knob to navigate a maze of twisty menus, all alike.
Smart phones at least have the advantage that (when you aren't worried about people seeing you use your phone in the car) you can bring it to your field of driving vision, rather than having to turn your head and sometimes lean your body over to see what you are about to press.
Plus, and I'm going to be called nasty things for saying this, but traffic accidents do not appear to be "way up", like they would be if smart phones were causing a ton of new accidents. I've seen some conjecture that the people who are prone to distraction will find something to distract them, and the problem should be addressed by working with those specific drivers, and not by chasing after the distraction that happens to be most popular at the moment. It will probably take several more years of data to clarify that. (And our data isn't trustworthy, but that is a rant for another day.)
Still too low. Here is what I would do:
Quarterly auction with an absolute cap on quantity, starting bid of $200,000/year (in total compensation) + 25% fee. Unused slots are lost.
Full salary to be placed in escrow to be paid over time regardless of anything else that happens to the applicant (quits/fired, dies, doesn't enter the country, whatever). Visa is owned and held by the worker, remains valid until 6 months after last day of employment in-country. Criminal penalties for a company officer for failure to report end of employment. Worker is free to seek other companies willing to buy out the current contract during or after employment. Assuming company pays 25% fee on however much compensation is still in escrow. Company can automatically renew for 1 year at the same salary/fee as the first year. After that, they have to bid on another slot.
No offer of citizenship (for anyone until at least 2057). No chain. No anchor. When the worker returns to their old country, they take their children with them. If their old country is poor, we'll offer to lend (with very favorable terms) all fees collected over the years to help the worker establish a practice at home, under certain conditions (no gifts, no bribes, must be a for-profit enterprise that promotes stability, commerce and local employment).
Known vulnerability, you say? What is the CVE ID of this "known vulnerability"?
-----
Was the BK commercial made by people? Yes.
Oh look, just like the Morris worm.
Was the BK commercial on planet Earth? Yes.
Oh look, just like the Morris worm.
Someone lent her a PC for a while, then she bought us a PCjr and someone from work soldered extra RAM on one of the sidecars. Had some PS/2s in the house.
The first computer that was all mine was a 486 custom build. Learned assembly and C (and a little C++) on it. I used to use the DEBUG program in DOS to program directly on the boot sectors of floppies. If I recall, it didn't understand any instructions past the 286, but I had a little flipbook with 386 codes, so I was able to assemble those instructions myself on graph paper. Got it to boot into protected mode, and had a (very) crude interface by hitting the video registers and memory. (Didn't do too much more with it because Linux was rising around that time and I was soon installing Slackware.)
Cheap chinese knockoffs of Japanese solder reworking tools are now plentiful and, well, cheap. Find the local HAM club - they'll know someone who can fix it right up.
I'm sure you can still find instructions somewhere, and I know that several DIY / wire wrapped computers are extensively photographed online.
You should read Hackers , particularly part 2, for the state of "the scene" in the late 70s. People were forming clubs and starting magazines to pass around schematics and software. By the mid-70s, you could buy proper computers, either in kit form or fully assembled. Making PCBs at home was getting practical too, but wire wrap was still preferred for prototyping.
It embarrassed them - it stripped off the pretend mask of "cool" and let everyone see them as the idiots they are. Go back to the other thread on this and read the vitriol they sling. Who is it directed at? Or, rather, to which comments do they direct their hatred?
Not an action.
Also not an action.
Ditto.
Let me put it like this. If the rape victim invites the rapist in, undresses her, lifts her onto his penis and pumps - then we'll have the same situation. In both cases, the "victim" is doing all of the work and the "attacker" is merely present. You would laugh at the suggestion that she raped him under those circumstances.
Did BK send something to your phone? No, you did that.
Did BK bypass your phone's security? No, you did that.
Did BK install, authorize or enable the voice recognition software? No, you did that.
Did BK configure your phone to respond to any voice? No, you did that.
Did BK configure your phone to access network resources in response to commands? No, you did that.
Actually, no, I won't be telling you any of those things. You will notice that in all of those offenses, the victim hasn't performed any overt action, but in the BK incident, the "victim" did everything. The BK prank relies on about 6 distinct and voluntary actions that the "victim" performed knowingly and willingly.
Did you even fucking read what I posted, or is this just an automatic word-vomit that you keep handy for whenever you think that someone disagrees with you?
Did you sleep through the hundreds of stories in the last few years about phones and laptops with counterfeit batteries bursting into flames? Going to blame them on unregulated cellphone mods?
Tell me more about this "hacking". Be specific
Even more obligatory:
Dilbert, 1994