heh, sorry, what i meant by the word "saying": i actually DID mean the widely misquoted, corrupted, (and now part of the common language of the geek world), moore's law. but since the well used "saying" is not actually moore's real observation, i didn't want to wrongly call it moore's law. because then i would have had to suffer an onslaught of knowledgeable slashdotters correcting me about transistors per cm^2.
maybe we should call it Kurzweil's law, but he believes that doubling time gets shorter and shorter, even though in the real world, it has been getting longer and longer....
the saying goes that computing power doubles every 24 months. but i have found that in the real world, the number is closer to 30 months.
the benchmark: Content Creation Winstone 2000. it works out all the parts of a pc.
(under windows 2000):
(introduced in May 1997) intel pentium II 300Mhz score: 15
(introduced in Oct 1999) intel pentium III 733Mhz score: 30
thats 29 months to double
under windows 98SE:
april 1998 intel pentium II 400Mhz score: 19.5
nov 2000 intel pentium 4 1500Mhz score: 42
thats 31 months to double
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT FIFTY YEARS (for thirty month performance doubling rate):
in 30 months: TWICE the performance. in 60 months: FOUR TIMES the performance.... in 25 years we will have ONE THOUSAND times the performance. and, in 50 years we will have ONE MILLION TIMES THE PERFORMANCE!!!!!!!
will that finally be enough to make our computers as smart as we are? how many watts of electricity will it consume?
from studying benchmarks, it usually takes about two years (and sometimes two and a half years) to double scores on pure cpu benchmarks and system level benchmarks (like sysmark).
instead of modding him down as trolling flamebait, i'll just foe him, so i don't have to read any more political bashing from him in the future, and adjust my comment filter. this way, only what i view myself will be affected, and i don't have to hurt anyones karma. i try not to mod comments down, even if they were intended to start a political arguement, because political moderation on/. is an oxymoron.
I'd LOVE to have a real-time map of where the TRAFFIC COPS were at so i never have to get another fucking speeding ticket. KITT had one, and that was back in the eighties, so it's about time they come to market!
sorry mate, it was four in the morning, and i was copy-pasting the guardian story from an email i had sent to my friends that play with bots and lost the formating and realized (right as i clicked submit) i didn't get the link in....
A prestigious Artificial Intelligence (AI) prize has been won for the second year running by a British company.
Icogno scooped the 2006 Loebner Prize Bronze Medal after judges decided that its AI called Joan was the "most human computer program".
The competition is based on the Turing test, which suggests computers could be seen as "intelligent" if their chat was indistinguishable from humans.
The gold medal, which goes to an AI that fools the judges, is unclaimed.
The prize is awarded after judges hold a conversation with the AI, asking questions to determine its "humanity" and the quality of its responses.
Joan is a "26-year-old budding writer" who exists only on a set of computer servers. Last year's Loebner prize went to Icogno's AI called George.
'Big difference'
Joan and George's creator Rollo Carpenter said: "The big difference overall between the two AIs is that Joan has learnt from the general public and has grown a huge amount in the last year and is keeping ahead of the competition."
Joan is one of the firm's so-called Jabberwacky bots, which develop their conversational skills by speaking to the general public online.
English writer Ariadne Tampion worked with Mr Carpenter to help develop Joan's persona by chatting to the AI online.
Those conversations helped develop the majority of the 16,000 lines that distinguish her from a generic AI. In all, the bot has more than five million lines of conversation available to it.
"She helped create a much more conversational ability for Joan than George last year.
"It does not mean the AI only ever uses her words. Any amount of teaching is not quite enough for a realistic conversation."
He added: "So the AI uses other things said by other people to it that fit the conversational model."
The underlying technology that powers George and Joan is the same, said Mr Carpenter.
"In terms of her ability to retain her character Joan is more sophisticated than George.
"The technology has moved on a bit during the course of the year but there's been no revolution."
The technology which powers Joan resides on Windows server machines. The core of the AI is on a Dual Xeon machine with lots of memory, said Mr Carpenter.
He said there was a very direct relationship between the computing power available and the sophistication of the AI.
'Rate of learning'
"Investment in a lot more equipment could accelerate the rate of learning," he said.
"If I had Google's hardware behind it and more hits than Google receives, the AI's range of utterances could grow by a million every single day." he added.
Mr Carpenter has said he expects a machine to fool people that they are speaking to a human being and therefore pass the Turing test by 2016.
Icogno is now working to commercialise the technology of the AI.
"We are working with an organisation that wants web avatars for use in marketing and entertainment purposes.
"Long term we see the use of AIs in call centres, support services and even for sales."
One day in the future when you pick up the phone to seek help with your broadband connection, the person you are speaking with may be George or Joan, AIs residing on a computer somewhere in the world.
-----------------------
The following is an extract of a conversation between one of the Loebner judges and the AI Joan:
Judge: But can't a machine think? Joan: It may be possible. Judge: And conscious? Joan: Not after I'm done with you. Judge: What are you going to do to me? Joan: Nothing. I just wanted to talk. Judge: What about? Joan: Being tested like this.
i know that not many will get to see this post since i'm posting two days after the ballbot story was posted... but the video is very revealing as to the current state of robotics.
damn, it was a hassle, but i finally got a copy of the original SSII for the snes last week. got the snes console from a neighbor kid for $20. of course it dind't come with an rf adaptor, so i still can't teach my friends not to run their mouths off about how they could kick anybody's ass at the game.
sadly, it's prolly the last game that i could school anybody at. so i'm getting it for the ego boost and satisfaction of bitch slapping my trash talking buddies.
mashups were the first thing that came to my mind as being further endangered with this ruling. and... are broadcast tv stations going to have to stop editing movies shown on tv?
i have too many friends that were unaware of the difficulties that DRM would deliver. the ipod/itunes world might seem easy and obvious to informed/. users, but it can be a royal pain in the ass to those who have no idea about the stipulations and limitations of the copyright protections.
the rest of the world is non-geek, and needs to be warned, UPFRONT, before any purchase, about what they will be allowed and will not be allowed to do with thier hardware and DRM'ed music.
been trying to observe the launch all week. this sucks. i had packed and was about to make the four hour drive to houston to catch my plane. ten minutes ago i decided to cancel my flight to florida. i tried it on thursday too. it's way too much driving and flying and waiting to keep getting disapointed. my buds in orlando got it easy, they just have to deal with all the traffic everytime it gets scrubbed.
oh well. the Columbia shook me out of bed three years ago, and it rained pieces of astronauts all over my area, so i understand the precautions. i'd rather be denied the chance to see it launch than cry.
it has taken almost five years to double performance on the SysMark 2004 SE Office Productivity: CPUs are just now doubling the 2.0GHz P4 from 2001!!!!!!!!
i tracked Content Creation Winstone 2000 scores up until the first P4s came out, and scores were taking about 30 months (two and a half years) to double.
the singularity is going to be awhile longer than kurzweil thinks. he keeps saying that performance doubling time is happening quicker and quicker. not true. over the last few years it has frequently taken 30 months or more for CPUs to double the scores on many benchmarks.
if the real world actually worked the way kurzweil dreams, then current CPUs should be about THIRTY times faster than a 2.0GHz P4 from 2001! the truth is that today's CPUs are little more than twice as fast as a 2GHz P4...
i've been reading/. for way too long to have not made my obligatory anti-MS rant yet, so here goes.
when MS made XP 10 times more complex than 98, they somehow added 10*10 points of failure.
XP requires a fucking fleet of MCSE techs to keep running. the majority of XP machines i see are down half the time or are so fucked up that doing any thing productive on them is impossible.
XP is the most bloated piece of haphazardly put together shit every programmed by 10,000 monkeys. count your blessings and thank the stars that aligned just right when your XP machine even boots.
take 98se, apply a few simple tweaks that were quickly figured out years ago, toss a cheap firewall on it, and voila, you've got a streamlined, stable, easy to maintain OS that can run just about any program/game you could need or want to run, on just about any machine you have.
XP was just a conspiracy with the hardware accessory industry to make you buy all new stuff, since they just couldn't bring themselves to right new drivers for XP. i wonder if all our stuff from printers to scanners to burners aren't going to work with Vista, cause they won't write drivers, on purpose.
i could go on, but i think i've got most of it outta my system.
i run 98se, and it runs fine. i don't konw how XP has been hyped to be more stable, of course MS kept preaching that so much until others just started repeating it. the many XP systems i use at work or at other places seem to crash so often and be more unstable, and seem to catch so much infestation, that my 98SE system seems bulletproof by comparison.
i'm on the net nearly constantly, and every now and then i run the gamut of scans, and never have anything worse than cookies.
of course, i did the well know tweaks and tuned the memory handling settings, and tweaked the swap file, etc; and don't use IE, and turned off scripting.
Slashdot Mirror
and it must have made the cover of this month's Popular Science.
or maybe it's like HDTV and after YEARS (decades) of being heralded, it might finally be coming. still overhyped IMHO....
even funnier: MySpace is owned by FOX.
heh, sorry, what i meant by the word "saying": i actually DID mean the widely misquoted, corrupted, (and now part of the common language of the geek world), moore's law. but since the well used "saying" is not actually moore's real observation, i didn't want to wrongly call it moore's law. because then i would have had to suffer an onslaught of knowledgeable slashdotters correcting me about transistors per cm^2.
maybe we should call it Kurzweil's law, but he believes that doubling time gets shorter and shorter, even though in the real world, it has been getting longer and longer....
you are very observant. it took 4 years to double the power of the 2.0GHz P4 ....
that's why i did not say "Moore's Law"
the saying goes that computing power doubles every 24 months. but i have found that in the real world, the number is closer to 30 months.
...
the benchmark: Content Creation Winstone 2000. it works out all the parts of a pc.
(under windows 2000):
(introduced in May 1997)
intel pentium II 300Mhz
score: 15
(introduced in Oct 1999)
intel pentium III 733Mhz
score: 30
thats 29 months to double
under windows 98SE:
april 1998
intel pentium II 400Mhz
score: 19.5
nov 2000
intel pentium 4 1500Mhz
score: 42
thats 31 months to double
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT FIFTY YEARS
(for thirty month performance doubling rate):
in 30 months: TWICE the performance.
in 60 months: FOUR TIMES the performance.
in 25 years we will have ONE THOUSAND times the performance.
and, in 50 years we will have ONE MILLION TIMES THE PERFORMANCE!!!!!!!
will that finally be enough to make our computers as smart as we are? how many watts of electricity will it consume?
CPUmark99 doubling:
24 months
sysmark 2000 double time: 27 months
ccwinstone04 double times 30 months
from studying benchmarks, it usually takes about two years (and sometimes two and a half years) to double scores on pure cpu benchmarks and system level benchmarks (like sysmark).
instead of modding him down as trolling flamebait, i'll just foe him, so i don't have to read any more political bashing from him in the future, and adjust my comment filter. this way, only what i view myself will be affected, and i don't have to hurt anyones karma. i try not to mod comments down, even if they were intended to start a political arguement, because political moderation on /. is an oxymoron.
I'd LOVE to have a real-time map of where the TRAFFIC COPS were at so i never have to get another fucking speeding ticket. KITT had one, and that was back in the eighties, so it's about time they come to market!
sorry mate, it was four in the morning, and i was copy-pasting the guardian story from an email i had sent to my friends that play with bots and lost the formating and realized (right as i clicked submit) i didn't get the link in....
A prestigious Artificial Intelligence (AI) prize has been won for the second year running by a British company.
Icogno scooped the 2006 Loebner Prize Bronze Medal after judges decided that its AI called Joan was the "most human computer program".
The competition is based on the Turing test, which suggests computers could be seen as "intelligent" if their chat was indistinguishable from humans.
The gold medal, which goes to an AI that fools the judges, is unclaimed.
The prize is awarded after judges hold a conversation with the AI, asking questions to determine its "humanity" and the quality of its responses.
Joan is a "26-year-old budding writer" who exists only on a set of computer servers. Last year's Loebner prize went to Icogno's AI called George.
'Big difference'
Joan and George's creator Rollo Carpenter said: "The big difference overall between the two AIs is that Joan has learnt from the general public and has grown a huge amount in the last year and is keeping ahead of the competition."
Joan is one of the firm's so-called Jabberwacky bots, which develop their conversational skills by speaking to the general public online.
English writer Ariadne Tampion worked with Mr Carpenter to help develop Joan's persona by chatting to the AI online.
Those conversations helped develop the majority of the 16,000 lines that distinguish her from a generic AI. In all, the bot has more than five million lines of conversation available to it.
"She helped create a much more conversational ability for Joan than George last year.
"It does not mean the AI only ever uses her words. Any amount of teaching is not quite enough for a realistic conversation."
He added: "So the AI uses other things said by other people to it that fit the conversational model."
The underlying technology that powers George and Joan is the same, said Mr Carpenter.
"In terms of her ability to retain her character Joan is more sophisticated than George.
"The technology has moved on a bit during the course of the year but there's been no revolution."
The technology which powers Joan resides on Windows server machines. The core of the AI is on a Dual Xeon machine with lots of memory, said Mr Carpenter.
He said there was a very direct relationship between the computing power available and the sophistication of the AI.
'Rate of learning'
"Investment in a lot more equipment could accelerate the rate of learning," he said.
"If I had Google's hardware behind it and more hits than Google receives, the AI's range of utterances could grow by a million every single day." he added.
Mr Carpenter has said he expects a machine to fool people that they are speaking to a human being and therefore pass the Turing test by 2016.
Icogno is now working to commercialise the technology of the AI.
"We are working with an organisation that wants web avatars for use in marketing and entertainment purposes.
"Long term we see the use of AIs in call centres, support services and even for sales."
One day in the future when you pick up the phone to seek help with your broadband connection, the person you are speaking with may be George or Joan, AIs residing on a computer somewhere in the world.
-----------------------
The following is an extract of a conversation between one of the Loebner judges and the AI Joan:
Judge: But can't a machine think?
Joan: It may be possible.
Judge: And conscious?
Joan: Not after I'm done with you.
Judge: What are you going to do to me?
Joan: Nothing. I just wanted to talk.
Judge: What about?
Joan: Being tested like this.
carpenter's latest creation won the latest turing test prize.? id=17518&ch=infotech
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx
george was last year's winner....
i wonder how long till there is a BallBot league in robocup!
l e_tribots.wmv
the middle size league in the robocup competition has THE most complex robots there are. this is where the latest advances in robots combine.
here is a video of the top two teams from the Bremen round this year.
http://www.shadow-dragon.info/upload/robocub_fina
i know that not many will get to see this post since i'm posting two days after the ballbot story was posted... but the video is very revealing as to the current state of robotics.
Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri
**best price/performance**
nVid 7600 GT ($210)
ATI X1600 XT ($170)
nVid 6600 GT ($140)
(MSI & BFG = quiet)
**best price/performance**
the faster at top:
ATI X800 Pro ~$250 ($150 refurb)
ATI 9950 ultra (N/A)
nVid 6800 LE/XT (LE=slower)($150,$300)
ATI 9800 XT(~$185) (6600GT is above this)
ATI X700 PRO($125)
nVid 5900U/5950 Ultra($250)
ATI 9800 PRO(~$130)
=ATI 9700 pro
=ATI 9800 ($90??)
=nVid 5900/5950
ATI 9700 ($110)
ATI X700 (NOT pro)???
ATI X1300 PRO($80-95)???
nVid 6600 ($100)
nVid 5800 ultra
nVid 5700 Ultra (N/A)
ATI 9500 Pro ($95 used)
(yes it beats 9600pro!)
=nVid 5600 Ultra
=ATI X600 PRO/XT ($95-114)
=ATI 9600 pro/XT ($100)
nVid 5800
ATI 9800 SE(128 bit)
nVid 5700/5750
nVid 6200 non-tc (under $100!)
=nVid 5600
=ATI 9500/9550/9600
ATI X300 non-Hypermem???
nVid 5700 LE (MINE)
nVid GF4 Ti 4600
nVid 5200 ULTRA
nVid 5600 XT (XT=lower)
ATI 9600 SE
this last group of expansion cards is equal to the current generation of integrated onboard graphics
***very slow***
nVid 5200/5500 ($50 PCI)
nVid PCX 5300
nVid 6200 Turbocache
ATI 9200 SE
ATI X300 SE Hypermemory
current generation of integrated graphics chipsets:
-- Intel GMA950
-- nVidia 6100/6150
-- ATI xpress 200
damn, it was a hassle, but i finally got a copy of the original SSII for the snes last week. got the snes console from a neighbor kid for $20. of course it dind't come with an rf adaptor, so i still can't teach my friends not to run their mouths off about how they could kick anybody's ass at the game.
sadly, it's prolly the last game that i could school anybody at. so i'm getting it for the ego boost and satisfaction of bitch slapping my trash talking buddies.
mashups were the first thing that came to my mind as being further endangered with this ruling. and... are broadcast tv stations going to have to stop editing movies shown on tv?
????
????
anybody seen Screamers?
a lot scarier than Terminators...
i have too many friends that were unaware of the difficulties that DRM would deliver. the ipod/itunes world might seem easy and obvious to informed /. users, but it can be a royal pain in the ass to those who have no idea about the stipulations and limitations of the copyright protections.
the rest of the world is non-geek, and needs to be warned, UPFRONT, before any purchase, about what they will be allowed and will not be allowed to do with thier hardware and DRM'ed music.
been trying to observe the launch all week. this sucks. i had packed and was about to make the four hour drive to houston to catch my plane. ten minutes ago i decided to cancel my flight to florida. i tried it on thursday too. it's way too much driving and flying and waiting to keep getting disapointed. my buds in orlando got it easy, they just have to deal with all the traffic everytime it gets scrubbed.
oh well. the Columbia shook me out of bed three years ago, and it rained pieces of astronauts all over my area, so i understand the precautions. i'd rather be denied the chance to see it launch than cry.
it has taken almost five years to double performance on the SysMark 2004 SE Office Productivity: CPUs are just now doubling the 2.0GHz P4 from 2001!!!!!!!!
i tracked Content Creation Winstone 2000 scores up until the first P4s came out, and scores were taking about 30 months (two and a half years) to double.
Mathmatica 5.x doubling time? about 27 months.
the singularity is going to be awhile longer than kurzweil thinks. he keeps saying that performance doubling time is happening quicker and quicker. not true. over the last few years it has frequently taken 30 months or more for CPUs to double the scores on many benchmarks.
if the real world actually worked the way kurzweil dreams, then current CPUs should be about THIRTY times faster than a 2.0GHz P4 from 2001! the truth is that today's CPUs are little more than twice as fast as a 2GHz P4...
i've been reading /. for way too long to have not made my obligatory anti-MS rant yet, so here goes.
when MS made XP 10 times more complex than 98, they somehow added 10*10 points of failure.
XP requires a fucking fleet of MCSE techs to keep running. the majority of XP machines i see are down half the time or are so fucked up that doing any thing productive on them is impossible.
XP is the most bloated piece of haphazardly put together shit every programmed by 10,000 monkeys. count your blessings and thank the stars that aligned just right when your XP machine even boots.
take 98se, apply a few simple tweaks that were quickly figured out years ago, toss a cheap firewall on it, and voila, you've got a streamlined, stable, easy to maintain OS that can run just about any program/game you could need or want to run, on just about any machine you have.
XP was just a conspiracy with the hardware accessory industry to make you buy all new stuff, since they just couldn't bring themselves to right new drivers for XP. i wonder if all our stuff from printers to scanners to burners aren't going to work with Vista, cause they won't write drivers, on purpose.
i could go on, but i think i've got most of it outta my system.
i run 98se, and it runs fine. i don't konw how XP has been hyped to be more stable, of course MS kept preaching that so much until others just started repeating it. the many XP systems i use at work or at other places seem to crash so often and be more unstable, and seem to catch so much infestation, that my 98SE system seems bulletproof by comparison.
i'm on the net nearly constantly, and every now and then i run the gamut of scans, and never have anything worse than cookies.
of course, i did the well know tweaks and tuned the memory handling settings, and tweaked the swap file, etc; and don't use IE, and turned off scripting.
dude, how much w33t do you smoke per day? is there a Great Green Spot in the atmosphere over your area?