Good luck. But if by some magic all religious belief systems would vanish from the earth, we might stand a chance. More crimes, more war, more hatred, more killing has occurred in the name of one or another religion than from any other single source. Once religion is extinguished and replaced by rational thought, many things would improve. The population explosion might come under control. Science might flourish in the vast regions of the world where primitive belief systems hold reign and suppress rational thought. When science gains prominence, we might stand the chance of having politicians who don't make policy based on fable and fantasy. Without the mind pollution that religion brings, sexual repression and guilt-induced psychosis would end, making for a saner population, a sure advance towards survival.
But religion is not the only evil in the world today. Greed-driven economic systems have a core flaw that influences and pervades all of society. When the driving force of an economy is the motive for profit, i. e. greed, there is no place for the 100 year plan. The "numbers" are the only measure of worth in this system. The quarterly reports and the annual reports upon which corporate values are determined do not include the future of our grandchildren or of the earth. "Did they make their numbers?" How often have you heard that at quarter end? The numbers are all the only concern. What were the earnings compared to the same quarter last year and to the previous quarter? Dollars. Not the intrinsic value to the world or the environment or to the well-being of the sick or impoverished. Those values are not on any corporate balance sheet. And until they are, or until dollar-based balance sheets are eliminated, or until the profit motive is completely replaced by more altruistic motives, there is little hope.
Those are the two core problems facing the world today, pervasive religious belief systems and capitalism. The chances of eliminating either one of them in 100 years? Zero.
The person who said the next great pandemic will be the cure might be onto something, but it will be a temporary cure unless the society that emerges after the collapse of this one casts out the twin evils of religion and capitalism. But I doubt that is the way it will play out. Getting rid of religion takes education, and lots of it. Getting rid of capitalism, or greed, hasn't worked out too well in the past and human nature is hard to change.
So, what should we do? Pray to God that the fanatics in the other religion don't nuke us before we nuke them? Invest our money in the industry most likely to profit from decreasing natural resources and an advancing global warming? Form a cult that worships a god that created a beautiful planet but allows that planet and its inhabitants to be ravished by war, famine, pestilence, and the pollution of emissions of the money machines that drive the economy, because that god must have some secret plan in the back of his mind that only He could possibly understand? Or do we start teaching science and critical thinking with the same zeal that religion is taught now? Could we start living a life of deliberate simplicity, reduced consumption, and harmony with nature? Maybe we could teach our children by example what it means to work together rather than in competition, with greater goals in sight than the numbers at the end of the quarter.
Yeah, maybe some day we will evolve to this higher level of consciousness. But in 100 years? Sorry, Stephen, I am not optimistic.
Is there a voice actor bar somewhere in Hollywood where you and guys like Jim Cummings, Mark Hamill, Dan Castellaneta, Hank Azaria, and Seth McFarlane sit around, tip a few, speak in character, and mock Issac Hayes?
Yeah, but it was sooo cool to look at the bones in your feet right through your shoes! And when you wiggled your toes, you could see them move on the green screen. I used to go into the shoe store all the time just to use the fluoroscope. And the extra toes I grew kept me out of Viet Nam!
Thank you for pointing this video out. Charlie Rose has assembled a great panel, which had a great discussion of bird flu. The full version is very much worth the 99 cents.
It isn't designed to be used by professional photographers or anyone wanting a sharp, distortion-free, low chromatic abberation image. It is designed for taking snapshots and sending them to a friend or family member. It is for fun. But for what it is worth, some very serious photographers use cameras that have incredibly bad lenses. Google for Holga images to see some great examples.
Re:1918 is not a valid comparison
on
A Flu Pandemic?
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· Score: 1
Your biggest misconception (IMHO) is stated in your sentence:
"Yes, it will start jumping but by the time it does the western world will be prepared."
The very point of all the concern is that at this point in time there _is_ no way to prepare for this pandemic other than stocking up on food so you can hole up for 3 months when it comes. Tamiflu may mitigate the seriousness in someone already displaying symptoms. Reflenza might do the same. But there is nothing else, and we don't have much of either drug and there are indications from Viet Nam that avian flu has already developed resistance to Tamiflu. Maybe some scientific breakthrough will happen that will help us, but it hasn't happened yet and no one is suggesting that one is near. It is very possible, even probable, that human-human transmission will start before that breakthrough occurs. If it happens in the next few months, as some scientists fear, then it is simply Katie-bar-the-door (very literally).
Here is the article that has the most helpful info I have seen on avian flu, preparation for, treatment for, analysis of statistical projections, etc.
Be sure to check out the diagram that show how fast the 1918 flu spread (without the benefit of air travel)
Good luck!
Re:%50 fatal is a complete lie
on
A Flu Pandemic?
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· Score: 1
I think you misunderstand. Having an antibody for a virus does not mean that you had the disease. It does mean that you were exposed to the virus. But these are two very different things. I will have to go back and read the article again to be sure, but if I remember correctly, Palese never made the claim that you are making. He never said that all those Chinese had avian flu or that the morbidity rate was next to zero. No scientist is saying that. There is simply no disagreement in the scientific community about the morbidity rate of avian flu. Everyone puts it at about 50%.
Re:I have - it was secondary infections
on
A Flu Pandemic?
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· Score: 1
is just one of thousands of articles about the 1918 flu, but they all say about the same thing, and I quote:
Typically, influenza causes death due to a secondary bacterial pneumonia. Bacteria are able to take advantage of the host's compromised immune status and damaged lung cells, establishing a potentially deadly infection. However, during the 1918 pandemic, a greater percentage of the deaths in the 20-45 age group were due to primary pneumonia: pneumonia caused by a combination of the influenza virus and the host response, with no bacterial invaders involved.
And the fear mongers? You mean like Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases, and a ground breaking AIDS researcher? Or maybe you mean Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. Or perhaps the fear monger you are referring to is LEE Jong-wook, director of the World Health Organization. Could it be Dr. Julie Louise Gerberding, director of the Center for Disease Control?
Because each and every one of these people have used the strongest possible language in warning that an unprecedented world disaster is on the verge of happening due to an influenza pandemic, probably caused by H5N1 avian flu.
It is all there for you to read and learn. Don't become one of the millions who are nominated en masse for the 2006 Darwin awards. Because this pandemic will be the agent that culls the stupid and the stubborn, along with an enormous population of poor and innocent. Probably you are just stubborn, but either way, you have a good chance of dying from your condition unless you wise up. Good luck.
Re:1918 is not a valid comparison
on
A Flu Pandemic?
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· Score: 1
No, if you study the 1918 pandemic, you will see that it came in three waves, the second being the worst. It spread across the entire United States in a period of one month without the benefit of airplanes. What good are the warning nets? How does media scrutiny stop a pandemic? What rapid action? You are deluded about how incredibly rapidly influenza travels around the world. And there is no way to screen passengers effectively since it is transmissable a few days before symptoms present. It has already mutated to an extremely virulent form that replicates in mammalian tissue. And have we stopped all air travel from South East Asia? No, and we won't until it is absolutely proven to be transmitting from human to human, which will be too late.
I say "Be afraid. Be very afraid." And take some reasonable precautions and make some reasonable preparations. And it would also be good to do some reading. I posted a link to an excellent source in several earlier messages that, should you read it, might dispel you of some of your misconceptions and help you to prepare in the event tha you decide not to become one of the millions of Darwin award winners by burying your head in the sand.
Serious new mutation announced today
on
A Flu Pandemic?
·
· Score: 2, Informative
a serious new mutation has taken place in the avian flu virus. To quote the article,
In Vietnam, scientists at the Ho Chi Minh Pasteur Institute who have been studying the genetic make up of H5N1 samples taken from people and poultry said it had undergone several mutations.
"There has been a mutation allowing the virus to (replicate) effectively in mammal tissue and become highly virulent," the institute said on its Web site at www.pasteur-hcm.org.vn.
The WHO said it had not yet seen the detailed results from the Pasteur. It noted that influenza viruses were prone to mutation and that differences had been seen before in genetic sequences of H5N1 strains.
All of which has nothing to do with the problem. The threat is not from bird to human transmission. It is from human-to-human transmission. No one gives a hoot about getting bird flu from birds. Human-to-human transmission does not happen at this time to the best of our knowledge. But once the final mutations happen to allow that (five of ten necessary ones already have), then all bets are off and most of what we have learned about medicine since 1918 will be of no practical use. Tamiflu might mitigate it for those lucky enough to get their hands on some. But other than that, about the only thing you can do is keep the patient hydrated, and I believe they understood that in 1918. Here is an article that might help you to understand the problem and what you can do to prepare yourself and care for your family if they should get it.
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPan demic.pdf
Re:Most died from SECONDARY infections
on
A Flu Pandemic?
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· Score: 1
That just doesn't happen to be true with this virus or with the 1918 virus. The primary cause of death had nothing whatsoever to do with pneumomia. It was a massive systemic reaction in the immune system. Do your research.
Re:Are you paying attention?
on
A Flu Pandemic?
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· Score: 1
Re:%50 fatal is a complete lie
on
A Flu Pandemic?
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· Score: 1
It looks like you didn't read the very next paragraph in the article. It says,
"Taubenberger said he could argue it either way. "It's a nasty virus," he said. "It is highly virulent in domestic birds and wild birds. The fact that it has killed half the humans it has infected makes it of concern, and the fact that it shares some features with the 1918 virus makes it of concern."
Read specific reccomendations here
on
A Flu Pandemic?
·
· Score: 1
To those who say, what can I do before and if the pandemic strikes, read this excellent monogram by a physician who wrote it for his patients. By far the best thing I have seen to date. It also answers a lot of questions about the virulence, mortality rate, and estimates of expected deaths. Pretty much straight facts, no sensationalism, just damned useful information:
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPan demic.pdf
I just heard one of NASA's talking heads say on CNN that the gap filler has several roles, among them preventing the channeling of heat through the gap to the shuttle body. So, by removing a gap filler, are we preventing one way of concentrating heat and allowing another?
I am aware that there is 2-way communication, but I think that both directions go on the same single cable. Which is why I said he had to connect the cable, not the TV (as TFA said) to his tuner. However, since he also sends IR to the TV to be decoded and sent to the back end, I assume that the TV must also be connected to the cable. Which, if true, means he is splitting the cable, connecting one side to the tuner and the other to the TV.
Plugging the TV into the tuner, which is the size of a laptop power pack, and the tuner into his laptop, Laurie is able to use his laptop to pick up content through hotel TVs that the backend system is broadcasting but not currently displaying on the TV.
Wouldn't he plug the cable, not the TV, into the tuner? Or maybe he split the cable. It would surprise me to find out that hotel TVs have some form of signal out. For what reason?
Writing code for the KIM-1 was my motivation for writing The Assembler. I had the same experience you did, writing the code, translating to hex, computing the displacements for the branch instructions, entering it all by hand on the key pad, pressing GO, crashing the KIM when the program branched into the middle of an instruction, repeating.
Oops. I meant to reply to ivanjs. It was his lyzardstomp page that talked about writing Assembly code on the VIC-20. Just to put my post in the right context, here it is again:
Interesting article. In it you mention programming the VIC-20 using a cartridge with which you could write Assembly code, but without the benefit of labels. There was another option for the VIC-20. I wrote and marketed an assembler called, modestly enough, The Assembler for the VIC-20. It was and still is, to the best of my knowledge, the tiniest assembler ever written that supported labels. It ran on the undexpanded VIC and even supported address expressions using +, -,/, *, AND, OR, ^ (exponentiation)! You could also specify text and hex strings and even have comments in your code. It all ran in the 3583 bytes of available memory on the VIC. You could save the object code to tape for later loading with a separate program called The Loader. Of course your Assembly source had to share memory with The Assembler, so it could only be about 150 lines long, and you could only get that many lines of code if you stuck to very short labels, though it supported labels up to 70 characters long.
Slashdot Mirror
Yes! I wrote more about this in a later post, titled Realistically?
Good luck. But if by some magic all religious belief systems would vanish from the earth, we might stand a chance. More crimes, more war, more hatred, more killing has occurred in the name of one or another religion than from any other single source. Once religion is extinguished and replaced by rational thought, many things would improve. The population explosion might come under control. Science might flourish in the vast regions of the world where primitive belief systems hold reign and suppress rational thought. When science gains prominence, we might stand the chance of having politicians who don't make policy based on fable and fantasy. Without the mind pollution that religion brings, sexual repression and guilt-induced psychosis would end, making for a saner population, a sure advance towards survival. But religion is not the only evil in the world today. Greed-driven economic systems have a core flaw that influences and pervades all of society. When the driving force of an economy is the motive for profit, i. e. greed, there is no place for the 100 year plan. The "numbers" are the only measure of worth in this system. The quarterly reports and the annual reports upon which corporate values are determined do not include the future of our grandchildren or of the earth. "Did they make their numbers?" How often have you heard that at quarter end? The numbers are all the only concern. What were the earnings compared to the same quarter last year and to the previous quarter? Dollars. Not the intrinsic value to the world or the environment or to the well-being of the sick or impoverished. Those values are not on any corporate balance sheet. And until they are, or until dollar-based balance sheets are eliminated, or until the profit motive is completely replaced by more altruistic motives, there is little hope. Those are the two core problems facing the world today, pervasive religious belief systems and capitalism. The chances of eliminating either one of them in 100 years? Zero. The person who said the next great pandemic will be the cure might be onto something, but it will be a temporary cure unless the society that emerges after the collapse of this one casts out the twin evils of religion and capitalism. But I doubt that is the way it will play out. Getting rid of religion takes education, and lots of it. Getting rid of capitalism, or greed, hasn't worked out too well in the past and human nature is hard to change. So, what should we do? Pray to God that the fanatics in the other religion don't nuke us before we nuke them? Invest our money in the industry most likely to profit from decreasing natural resources and an advancing global warming? Form a cult that worships a god that created a beautiful planet but allows that planet and its inhabitants to be ravished by war, famine, pestilence, and the pollution of emissions of the money machines that drive the economy, because that god must have some secret plan in the back of his mind that only He could possibly understand? Or do we start teaching science and critical thinking with the same zeal that religion is taught now? Could we start living a life of deliberate simplicity, reduced consumption, and harmony with nature? Maybe we could teach our children by example what it means to work together rather than in competition, with greater goals in sight than the numbers at the end of the quarter. Yeah, maybe some day we will evolve to this higher level of consciousness. But in 100 years? Sorry, Stephen, I am not optimistic.
Is there a voice actor bar somewhere in Hollywood where you and guys like Jim Cummings, Mark Hamill, Dan Castellaneta, Hank Azaria, and Seth McFarlane sit around, tip a few, speak in character, and mock Issac Hayes?
I think we are all agreed on this. Otherwise, nice job!
Yeah, but it was sooo cool to look at the bones in your feet right through your shoes! And when you wiggled your toes, you could see them move on the green screen. I used to go into the shoe store all the time just to use the fluoroscope. And the extra toes I grew kept me out of Viet Nam!
Thank you for pointing this video out. Charlie Rose has assembled a great panel, which had a great discussion of bird flu. The full version is very much worth the 99 cents.
It isn't designed to be used by professional photographers or anyone wanting a sharp, distortion-free, low chromatic abberation image. It is designed for taking snapshots and sending them to a friend or family member. It is for fun. But for what it is worth, some very serious photographers use cameras that have incredibly bad lenses. Google for Holga images to see some great examples.
"Yes, it will start jumping but by the time it does the western world will be prepared."
The very point of all the concern is that at this point in time there _is_ no way to prepare for this pandemic other than stocking up on food so you can hole up for 3 months when it comes. Tamiflu may mitigate the seriousness in someone already displaying symptoms. Reflenza might do the same. But there is nothing else, and we don't have much of either drug and there are indications from Viet Nam that avian flu has already developed resistance to Tamiflu. Maybe some scientific breakthrough will happen that will help us, but it hasn't happened yet and no one is suggesting that one is near. It is very possible, even probable, that human-human transmission will start before that breakthrough occurs. If it happens in the next few months, as some scientists fear, then it is simply Katie-bar-the-door (very literally).
Here is the article that has the most helpful info I have seen on avian flu, preparation for, treatment for, analysis of statistical projections, etc.
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPan demic.pdf
Be sure to check out the diagram that show how fast the 1918 flu spread (without the benefit of air travel)
Good luck!
I think you misunderstand. Having an antibody for a virus does not mean that you had the disease. It does mean that you were exposed to the virus. But these are two very different things. I will have to go back and read the article again to be sure, but if I remember correctly, Palese never made the claim that you are making. He never said that all those Chinese had avian flu or that the morbidity rate was next to zero. No scientist is saying that. There is simply no disagreement in the scientific community about the morbidity rate of avian flu. Everyone puts it at about 50%.
http://aetiology.blogspot.com/2005/10/pandemic-inf luenza-awareness-week-day.html
is just one of thousands of articles about the 1918 flu, but they all say about the same thing, and I quote:
Typically, influenza causes death due to a secondary bacterial pneumonia. Bacteria are able to take advantage of the host's compromised immune status and damaged lung cells, establishing a potentially deadly infection. However, during the 1918 pandemic, a greater percentage of the deaths in the 20-45 age group were due to primary pneumonia: pneumonia caused by a combination of the influenza virus and the host response, with no bacterial invaders involved.
And the fear mongers? You mean like Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases, and a ground breaking AIDS researcher? Or maybe you mean Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. Or perhaps the fear monger you are referring to is LEE Jong-wook, director of the World Health Organization. Could it be Dr. Julie Louise Gerberding, director of the Center for Disease Control?
Because each and every one of these people have used the strongest possible language in warning that an unprecedented world disaster is on the verge of happening due to an influenza pandemic, probably caused by H5N1 avian flu.
It is all there for you to read and learn. Don't become one of the millions who are nominated en masse for the 2006 Darwin awards. Because this pandemic will be the agent that culls the stupid and the stubborn, along with an enormous population of poor and innocent. Probably you are just stubborn, but either way, you have a good chance of dying from your condition unless you wise up. Good luck.
I say "Be afraid. Be very afraid." And take some reasonable precautions and make some reasonable preparations. And it would also be good to do some reading. I posted a link to an excellent source in several earlier messages that, should you read it, might dispel you of some of your misconceptions and help you to prepare in the event tha you decide not to become one of the millions of Darwin award winners by burying your head in the sand.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051114/ts_nm/birdflu_ dc
a serious new mutation has taken place in the avian flu virus. To quote the article,
In Vietnam, scientists at the Ho Chi Minh Pasteur Institute who have been studying the genetic make up of H5N1 samples taken from people and poultry said it had undergone several mutations. "There has been a mutation allowing the virus to (replicate) effectively in mammal tissue and become highly virulent," the institute said on its Web site at www.pasteur-hcm.org.vn. The WHO said it had not yet seen the detailed results from the Pasteur. It noted that influenza viruses were prone to mutation and that differences had been seen before in genetic sequences of H5N1 strains.
All of which has nothing to do with the problem. The threat is not from bird to human transmission. It is from human-to-human transmission. No one gives a hoot about getting bird flu from birds. Human-to-human transmission does not happen at this time to the best of our knowledge. But once the final mutations happen to allow that (five of ten necessary ones already have), then all bets are off and most of what we have learned about medicine since 1918 will be of no practical use. Tamiflu might mitigate it for those lucky enough to get their hands on some. But other than that, about the only thing you can do is keep the patient hydrated, and I believe they understood that in 1918. Here is an article that might help you to understand the problem and what you can do to prepare yourself and care for your family if they should get it. http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPan demic.pdf
That just doesn't happen to be true with this virus or with the 1918 virus. The primary cause of death had nothing whatsoever to do with pneumomia. It was a massive systemic reaction in the immune system. Do your research.
Read this http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPan demic.pdf for some very good suggestions on what you can do.
No, twice as deadly means that the RATE of mortality is twice as high. That is, your chances of surviving an infection are half as good.
Read this http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPan demic.pdf. It tells you quite specifically what you can do.
It looks like you didn't read the very next paragraph in the article. It says, "Taubenberger said he could argue it either way. "It's a nasty virus," he said. "It is highly virulent in domestic birds and wild birds. The fact that it has killed half the humans it has infected makes it of concern, and the fact that it shares some features with the 1918 virus makes it of concern."
To those who say, what can I do before and if the pandemic strikes, read this excellent monogram by a physician who wrote it for his patients. By far the best thing I have seen to date. It also answers a lot of questions about the virulence, mortality rate, and estimates of expected deaths. Pretty much straight facts, no sensationalism, just damned useful information: http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPan demic.pdf
I just heard one of NASA's talking heads say on CNN that the gap filler has several roles, among them preventing the channeling of heat through the gap to the shuttle body. So, by removing a gap filler, are we preventing one way of concentrating heat and allowing another?
I am aware that there is 2-way communication, but I think that both directions go on the same single cable. Which is why I said he had to connect the cable, not the TV (as TFA said) to his tuner. However, since he also sends IR to the TV to be decoded and sent to the back end, I assume that the TV must also be connected to the cable. Which, if true, means he is splitting the cable, connecting one side to the tuner and the other to the TV.
Plugging the TV into the tuner, which is the size of a laptop power pack, and the tuner into his laptop, Laurie is able to use his laptop to pick up content through hotel TVs that the backend system is broadcasting but not currently displaying on the TV. Wouldn't he plug the cable, not the TV, into the tuner? Or maybe he split the cable. It would surprise me to find out that hotel TVs have some form of signal out. For what reason?
... when we are making love. Anything that might bring her back to life is worth a try.
Writing code for the KIM-1 was my motivation for writing The Assembler. I had the same experience you did, writing the code, translating to hex, computing the displacements for the branch instructions, entering it all by hand on the key pad, pressing GO, crashing the KIM when the program branched into the middle of an instruction, repeating.
Oops. I meant to reply to ivanjs. It was his lyzardstomp page that talked about writing Assembly code on the VIC-20. Just to put my post in the right context, here it is again: Interesting article. In it you mention programming the VIC-20 using a cartridge with which you could write Assembly code, but without the benefit of labels. There was another option for the VIC-20. I wrote and marketed an assembler called, modestly enough, The Assembler for the VIC-20. It was and still is, to the best of my knowledge, the tiniest assembler ever written that supported labels. It ran on the undexpanded VIC and even supported address expressions using +, -, /, *, AND, OR, ^ (exponentiation)! You could also specify text and hex strings and even have comments in your code. It all ran in the 3583 bytes of available memory on the VIC. You could save the object code to tape for later loading with a separate program called The Loader. Of course your Assembly source had to share memory with The Assembler, so it could only be about 150 lines long, and you could only get that many lines of code if you stuck to very short labels, though it supported labels up to 70 characters long.