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Bird Flu Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered

creepygeek writes to mention a New Scientist article detailing a new process for creating Tamiflu, an antiviral drug currently thought to be our best defense against the bird flu. From the article: "Making Tamiflu is slow, partly because shikimic is hard to get, but also because one step in the process involves a highly explosive chemical called an azide. As a result, Tamiflu can be made only in small batches of a few tens of litres at a time. But Elias Corey of Harvard University - who won a Nobel prize in 1990 for chemical synthesis - and colleagues have devised a new way to make the drug from two cheap, plentiful petrochemicals, acrylate and butadiene."

252 comments

  1. Good News....right? by TripMaster+Monkey · · Score: 5, Insightful

    From TFA:
    The biggest hope for saving people at the start of a bird flu pandemic, before a vaccine is available, is the antiviral drug Tamiflu
    It's too bad that our 'biggest hope' is not up to the task, as the following articles assert:

    It might be better to just stock up on old-fashioned Jewish penicillin.
    --
    ____

    ~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey

    1. Re:Good News....right? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny
      It might be better to just stock up on old-fashioned Jewish penicillin.

      Not a good plan. If Bird Flu strikes, chicken will be rarer than shikimic acid.

    2. Re:Good News....right? by thebdj · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Two of the three articles reference to the same write-up from the NEMJ. It is also possible, though I cannot be sure, that the third article's journal reference could be a submission from the same individual. Now, I do not know how much to trust what they say about Tamiflu still being the best option, because saying otherwise would just lead people to freak out when the pandemic comes, but I believe it would probably still be one of the better options.

      Drug resistances happen because virii and bacteria mutate over time. This is a big reason why many traditional antibiotics are becoming less useful against certain bacteria, and a possible cause for some of the "super bugs." And if your idea for fighting bird flu is with chicken soup, we truly are screwed.

      --
      "Some days you just can't get rid of a bomb."
    3. Re:Good News....right? by mrpeebles · · Score: 1, Interesting

      What we really need to do is beef up our local emergency response system across the entire country. Unfortunately, this costs real money. We seem tempted to think the right pill will fix all other aspects of our lives, and another flu pandemic is no different.

    4. Re:Good News....right? by xoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Jewish penicillin would probably be more expensive that tamiflu if bird flu struck for real...

    5. Re:Good News....right? by elmarkitse · · Score: 2, Funny

      wait a minute. You're suggesting that the best defense for a pandemic of BIRD FLU would be to consume CHICKEN Soup?

      That smacks of a vaguely Matrix 'human as the incubator' approach to a new 'mass produced' production technique of generating the necessary antibodies quickly, no?

    6. Re:Good News....right? by Pedrito · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's impossible at this point to determine how resistant the bird flu will be to Tamiflu if it becomes an easily contagious pandemic form. The reason? Because to become easily contagious, it has to mutate. When it mutates, it becomes a different virus which may be more resistant than the current strain, less resistant, or the same.

      The difference from a mutation can be enormous. For example, the current virus has about a 50% mortality rate. It is very like when that when it mutates, this mortality rate will go down. The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 had only a 2.5-5% mortality rate and that was without Tamiflu. That doesn't mean this one will mutate into only having a 2.5-5% rate. It will likely have a higher rate, and frankly, I think a lot of the predictions of how many will die from an H5N1 mutant pandemic are lowball figures because they do tend to assume a pretty low mortality compared to what it's currently at.

      But you're basically comparing apples and oranges at this point. A pandemic flu will not be the current strain because the current strain simply isn't contagious enough.

    7. Re:Good News....right? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Better then them modding up grammar nazis. Contribute something to the thread of go away.

    8. Re:Good News....right? by Worminater · · Score: 1
    9. Re:Good News....right? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "It's not my fault that life sucks so much."

      I know, I know, don't tell me.....

      ....I'm a grammar nazi in denial.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    10. Re:Good News....right? by Philip+K+Dickhead · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yeah, but Tamiflu is a great scam for Rumsfeld, who made millions as a former Executive with Gilead - the developer of this nonsense.

      Take two Vioxx, and call me from Iraq in the morning.

      --
      "Speaking the Truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
    11. Re:Good News....right? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      On NPR the other day they were discussing the problem with mass administration of tamiflu or at least self-administration and personal stockpiling - it may reduce the effect the virus has on the person - but they will still have the virus and will be contageous. If they think they're well enough to go out into public they may cause more harm than good to the greater population.

    12. Re:Good News....right? by moro_666 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      how do these articles even get posted ?


      Tamiflu, an antiviral drug currently thought to be our best defense against


      AFAIK Tamiflu doesn't Defend you from the virus, it just makes easier for the body to Fight it once you're already infected. you can still die, and if you've been illusional enough to waste your Tamiflu before you got ill the chances will be even better (since there won't be any on the market when/if it will/should ever hit in).

      There's still no birdflu here that could move from one mammal to another via air. There are lots of other viruses around that deal much greater damage at the time being, perhaps we should pay attention at them aswell ?

      ps. even if you buy a ton of tamifly, the animals that you need around for the farming industry to work, won't be protected, and if it's half as bad as it supposedly could be, you'll just die into hunger. hopefully wild animals have better protection against it than the worthless humans.

      --

      I'd tell you the chances of this story being a dupe, but you wouldn't like it.
    13. Re:Good News....right? by LunaticTippy · · Score: 1
      I know you're making a joke, but I've met people who are confused about this.

      If you eat cooked poultry there is absolutely zero chance of contracting bird flu.

      --
      Man, you really need that seminar!
    14. Re:Good News....right? by Surt · · Score: 1

      But really, if you remember to stock up before the flu strikes, then you'll be armed with a great weapon for looting: you'll run home to home, threatening anyone who gets in your way with a big bucket full of potential bird flu.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    15. Re:Good News....right? by plague3106 · · Score: 1

      fortunatly, bird flu is just the latest fear mongering attempt by our news media.

      They've said teh same thing about SARS, ebola, and a host of other diseases that pretty much went nowhere.

    16. Re:Good News....right? by Firehed · · Score: 1

      Until it mutates to becoming transmissible from human-to-human, in which case cannibals need to thoroughly cook their victims as well.

      --
      How are sites slashdotted when nobody reads TFAs?
    17. Re:Good News....right? by gg3po · · Score: 2, Informative
      It's too bad that our 'biggest hope' is not up to the task...

      This is because the purpose of all this "bird flu" fear-mongering, and particularly in relation to Tamiflu®, has nothing to do with protecting the public. It appears to be really just another example of government corruption -- an excuse to funnel large quantities of taxpayer dollars into the pockets of chronies like Donald Rumsfeld and crew. Turns out all these huge orders placed by the federal government for an ineffective treatment are making certain "private" citizens very wealthy. Wake up, America, your wallet was just raped, again.

      --
      ---
    18. Re:Good News....right? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Last time I checked, humans != poultry.

    19. Re:Good News....right? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you eat cooked poultry there is absolutely zero chance of contracting bird flu.

      You forgot to add "from the consumed poultry" at the end. Otherwise you are implying that KFC is a 100% effective prophylactic against bird flu.

    20. Re:Good News....right? by sgt_doom · · Score: 1
      No,no,no....if Rumsfeld's company (the pharmaceutical he has all that $$$$ invested in) doesn't have a monopoly, we will suddenly not be hearing very much in the news anymore about it.

      After all, the head of the CDC, Dr. Julie Geberding, was reported in the news the other week as not being particularly worried about this birdy flu (can't find that news link - this is from an earlier interview)......rather peculiar that the CDC spokespeople are giving the American populace the opposite idea???

    21. Re:Good News....right? by sgt_doom · · Score: 1

      Sorry, here's that recent news item where Dr. Gerberding says we really shouldn't be worried about that birdy flu....

    22. Re:Good News....right? by coastwalker · · Score: 1

      I agree that the media overhyped the other diseases. However if you read up on H5N1 I think you will find that it has a far more serious potential to do harm.
      We had a flu pandemic in the last centuary that killed more people than the first world war. Its only recently that the science has identified where that pandemic came from - and H5N1 is a good candidate to cause a similar pandemic.

      It aint happened yet and that is probably the best indication that we might get away with this one. On the other hand the fact that it has only started appearing recently in most countries shows that the probability game still has some time to run.

      In my mind a threat assesment of my likelyhood of being killed by various things in the next year comes out in an order like this

      bird flu
      road traffic accident
      cancer
      heart attack
      drowning

      Things that I would be willing to bet $10,000 that will not seriously harm me in the next year include
      Any chemical in food or the environment
      Nuclear power
      terrorism
      Chlorestorol
      smoking
      drinking alcohol
      illegal drugs
      snowboarding
      violent crime
      Aids
      asbestos
      suicide
      air crash
      rail crash
      any rare disease

      The question for me then becomes why are all the things that I evaluate as low risk the ones that the media is deeply preocupied with. The answer I come up with is that the media publishes stories to sell and make money out of. Its function is only indirectly to inform us. You have to evaluate things for yourself by doing background research. I gave up watching tv 20 years ago because it already and obviously had an information content sufficiently close to zero to be replaced by a three minute radio news slot. Thankfully I can now research most things through the internet and can read a variety of good quality newspapers to check out the zeitgeist of political opinion and get a reasonable catalogue of current events to research off the bbc world service radio.

      --
      Facts are history now plebs have politics for religion on social media.
  2. Is it almost over? by Phantombrain · · Score: 3, Funny

    Can I come out of my air-tight bubble yet?

    --
    echo YOUR_OPINION > /dev/null
    1. Re:Is it almost over? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    2. Re:Is it almost over? by lokiman · · Score: 0

      Stay in your bubble. The antivirus is being co developed by KFC. I am just hoping there is a crunch option.

    3. Re:Is it almost over? by lokiman · · Score: 0

      Obviously my y did not work due to the drool of the thought of KFC. HMMMM....CRUNCHY.

    4. Re:Is it almost over? by reynhout · · Score: 1

      > If something is really weird, why is it supernatural?

      Everyone in an English-speaking country should be required to take one year of high school Latin before graduating.

    5. Re:Is it almost over? by NumerusSpy · · Score: 0

      Everyone in an English-speaking country should be required to take one year of high school Latin before graduating.

      That's just dumb

      --
      There they are a conga line of suck holes. On the conservative side of Australian politics. - Mark Latham
  3. Good news... by DaHat · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If we believe the hype that the bird flu is a real threat to the health of the people of the world... which despite the hype from the media and the upcoming ABC made for tv movie... I have yet to see any credible evidence of despite much looking.

    1. Re:Good news... by meringuoid · · Score: 5, Interesting
      If we believe the hype that the bird flu is a real threat to the health of the people of the world... which despite the hype from the media and the upcoming ABC made for tv movie... I have yet to see any credible evidence of despite much looking.

      Every so often, a mutant flu strain arises that kills millions of people. Most famously in 1919, when more people died from flu than were killed in the entire four years of unprecedentedly bloody warfare just past. IIRC there were two more major flu pandemics in the twentieth century, although neither were as devastating.

      Sooner or later there WILL be another flu with the ability to kill millions. The only way we have of preventing another 1919 is to spot the threat before it gets going and prepare a vaccine. Hence the worry over H5N1. It's entirely possible that it will all blow over. It's also possible that it will mutate to a form that can spread from one human to another, and become pandemic. If it doesn't, well, great. If it does, we'll be glad we prepared.

      For myself, I'm far more afraid of a mutant strain of bird flu killing me than I am of terrorists killing me. That said, I'm more afraid of being hit by a car than I am of either of them, but that doesn't stop me crossing the road...

      --
      Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
    2. Re:Good news... by mikeisme77 · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Exactly. The media is always blowing something out of proportion as the next big threat to humanity (or the US):

      -Killer bees (there was a movie on this one too)
      -SARS
      -AIDs (several movies)
      -Terrorism
      -Anthrax (related to the above)
      -Small Pox coming back
      -Etc.

      While they're all threats, they aren't just going to all of a sudden just break out all over the place. The media loves to feed off our fears--as it sells almost as well as sex. When it explodes, THEN freak out about it, but until then enjoy life.

    3. Re:Good news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Totally O/T, but what ever happened with those anthrax postal investigations from a few years ago? Last I heard about it was that they traced the strain back to the military then they just kind of shrugged their shoulders and let it go.

    4. Re:Good news... by TheOtherChimeraTwin · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Well said. Our society tends to ignore events with a low probability of occuring. (What are the odds a hurricane could hit New Orleans, right?) A pandemic will happen again someday; we just don't have a schedule.

      Experts like Robert G. Webster are worried about H5N1, so it makes sense to take some precautions.

      The Great Influenza by John Barry will scare your socks off, and it is all historical fact.

      A good source of information about a possible pandemic is fluwikie.com

    5. Re:Good news... by Tibor+the+Hun · · Score: 1

      Exactly.
      Just like the people who suggest you look both ways before crossing the street...
      It's a waste of time, it can hurt your neck, and make your iPod earphones fall out.

      There's nothing we can do in either case, plus we have either God or Government (or both!) on our side so we can just relax and enjoy life!!!

      And for when (or rather IF) it hits, I have a great freak out plan:
      I'll just shoot all my neighbors and take their food and water!
      Who's with me?

      --
      If you don't know what AltaVista is (was), get off my lawn.
    6. Re:Good news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You misunderstand the nature of the threat. What you're asking for is the equivalent of saying, I don't see anyone being harmed by nuclear missles, therefore they must not pose any threat.

      We're talking about an event that isn't guaranteed to happen, that requires conditions beyond those that currently exist. But enough of the necessary conditions do exist for us to benefit from planning what our response should be if the remaining conditions come about and a pandemic strain evolves.

      That said I think the hype you refer to by the media probably is taking us in wasteful directions, spending money in ways that are unlikely to be of much benefit (or even harm as in the case of legislation being passed to the benefit of drug developers that are using the flu threat as cover).

    7. Re:Good news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, our current calendar system stops 1919 ever happening again...

    8. Re:Good news... by xoyoyo · · Score: 1

      I think you mean high probability of occurring here, surely? A flu pandemic *will* occur. It might not be H5N1 but there will be a pandemic some time soon. And building a city below sea level in a hurricane zone does not yield a low probability of something disastrous happening.

    9. Re:Good news... by mshiltonj · · Score: 1

      For myself, I'm far more afraid of a mutant strain of bird flu killing me than I am of terrorists killing me. That said, I'm more afraid of being hit by a car than I am of either of them, but that doesn't stop me crossing the road...

      Dude, that is a great line.

    10. Re:Good news... by mikeisme77 · · Score: 1

      I'm not saying don't do anything about it. I think researchers should work on a cure. The only thing the government can (and should do) is fund said researchers--and all the other sciences. If you want to believe in God taking care of it all, then you go ahead and lie down like that. And then he'll strike you with a thunderbolt. All I'm saying is that the media blows things way out of proportion and that the average person need not worry about it until such times as something actually happens (unless they want to donate more money to research, in which case that would be fine). And if you want to shoot your neighbors and take their food and water, feel free to, but I don't see how that would help you cure or prevent getting a disease that's spreading. Even if you kill every living creature within the area, a virus may still spread to you (it could be in that food that you steal from your neighbor). So, really, you could just be dooming yourself and I wouldn't advise such actions.

    11. Re:Good news... by Captain+Splendid · · Score: 1

      I think you just answered your own question there...

      --
      Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
    12. Re:Good news... by Pedrito · · Score: 1

      If we believe the hype that the bird flu is a real threat to the health of the people of the world... which despite the hype from the media and the upcoming ABC made for tv movie... I have yet to see any credible evidence of despite much looking.

      Perhaps you're unfamiliar with history. Credible evidence? How about 3 flu pandemics in the 20th century? The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. The 1957 Asian flu pandemic (1-4 million dead). The 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic (as many as 750,000 dead).

      A flu pandemic WILL come, it's as much a fact as night following day. Will it be a variation of the H5N1 strain? Maybe, maybe not. Right now, it's the most likely candidate and the fact that it currently has a 50% mortality (as opposed to the Spanish flu which had a 2.5-5% mortality and killed between 50 and 100 million people), has people understandably concerned.

      You can't see credible evidence despite much looking? Where have you been looking? Obviously not in history books or science books.

    13. Re:Good news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      You can't see credible evidence despite much looking?

      Come on. You're talking to a guy who has a respectable job who's only managed to pay down about 3500 bucks of his student loans in three years. And part of that is thanks to donations. It's pretty clear that he doesn't put much effort into things.

    14. Re:Good news... by King+Monkeyman · · Score: 1

      Just as a short addendum, if you want to assess the risk of a flu pandemic, just look at life expectancy data over the 20th century. The single largest feature is the 1918 flu pandemic. By comparison, WWII us a tiny blip. Sorry no links, have to work...

      KMM

    15. Re:Good news... by tonywong · · Score: 1

      AIDS is not a bogeyman. It's real, and it's classified as a pandemic. Check out some news that doesn't involve slashdot sometime.

      http://www.whitehouse.gov/onap/facts.html
      http://www.accessexcellence.org/HHQ/HRC/HF/aids/in dex.html
      http://asmallvictory.net/archives/005326.html

    16. Re:Good news... by TheOtherChimeraTwin · · Score: 1

      I should have said a low probability for any given time. There are many events that are certain to occur: a pandemic, a hurricane hitting New Orleans again, an earthquake in San Francisco, a tsunami in Hawaii, global warming, an ice age, your local river flooding. None of these are likely to happen in the next month so people ignore them. All of them will happen eventually. I agree that there will be a pandemic, but we don't know if it will be this year or thirty years from now. If we ignore the risk, the cost in human life will be huge, so we need to prepare even if we can't give the exact odds.

    17. Re:Good news... by Jtheletter · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Totally offtopic message to you, meringuoid. I have enjoyed your sig for sometime, and only with the recent airing of the new Dr. Who series have I understood what it even meant. But damnit, I was so sure the disbaled dalek they found in the bunker was going to blast the place to hell when they all ran into the stairwell. It was a big disappointment when it simply went into hover mode. :(

      --
      -- I'm not a pessimist, I'm a realist. It's not my fault that life sucks so much. --
    18. Re:Good news... by mikeisme77 · · Score: 1

      I'm not denying it's a pandemic. I'm simply stating that it's not even close to as widespread/as many deaths as the media was predicting in the 80's. I may have been born in '84, but that doesn't mean I haven't watched some of the old movies/news reels on the topic.

    19. Re:Good news... by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      The media is always blowing something out of proportion

      It's equally as tragic to ignore what is a very plausable threat to 10-20% of humanity.

      ...they aren't just going to all of a sudden just break out all over the place...

      So your saying it doesn't "suddenly just break out all over the place" every year during "flu season"? Surely that must have been a typo because you fix it up by contradicting yourself...

      "When it explodes[emphasis mine], THEN freak out about it, ...."

      What a good idea, let's organise our institutions like a school of popeyed mullet.

      "...but until then enjoy life."

      Sane advice.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    20. Re:Good news... by ocbwilg · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sooner or later there WILL be another flu with the ability to kill millions. The only way we have of preventing another 1919 is to spot the threat before it gets going and prepare a vaccine. Hence the worry over H5N1. It's entirely possible that it will all blow over. It's also possible that it will mutate to a form that can spread from one human to another, and become pandemic. If it doesn't, well, great. If it does, we'll be glad we prepared.

      Maybe it's flu, maybe it's something else. If we spent so much hype, time, energy, and effort preparing for every possible bug that could become an epidemic or pandemic, we would never get anything done. Personally, I am far more concerned about the epidemics that we know about (HIV for example) than I am about bird flu. I think that the main reason that bird flu (which has only infected a couple dozen people and killed even fewer) gets so much press is two fold:

      1. The majority of the media-embracing public understands the concepts of birds and flu.

      2. The Bush administration is zero for two on preventing, mitigating, or responding to major US disasters (9/11 and Katrina) and they're desperate to look like they're doing something to prepare for future disasters.

    21. Re:Good news... by Tibor+the+Hun · · Score: 1

      I agree with you to a certain point, media will sell this for all its worth, relying on our fears.
      However, if something like this does strike, those who haven't thought about dealing with it are gonna be in for a shock.

      I lived in a warzone (briefly- 5 months), where we would only get electricity and running water for a few hours a day. It requires a major lifestyle change. When you have to use the same bucket of water to wash your dishes, then clothes and then to flush the can, it requires some planning.
      If the water processing personell doesn't show up at work, either because they're sick or worried, where are you going to get your clean water from? How are you going to boil it if you have no electricity? How long do you think milk for the kids stays fresh without electricity?

      Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating we all dig out shelters in our back yards, but if a pandemic hits, lots of people are gonna be shocked to high heaven because they were completely oblivious to what was going around them.

      But hey, you'll be in Iowa, and I'm in Nebraska, so we should be a lot safer than the city-slickers on the coasts;)

      --
      If you don't know what AltaVista is (was), get off my lawn.
    22. Re:Good news... by EnsilZah · · Score: 1

      I'm sure you made an intelligent post, but all i could think of was:

      Why did the meringuoid cross the road?
      To die of bird flu when he got to the other side.

    23. Re:Good news... by LunaticTippy · · Score: 1
      I live in Denver you insensitive clod!

      Seriously, with my camping gear and 200 gal boiler in the basement and some powdered milk I'll be okay for a few weeks. I'll even be able to read with my diesel lamps!

      --
      Man, you really need that seminar!
    24. Re:Good news... by afidel · · Score: 1

      You don't understand, there WILL be another flu epidemic, whether it is H5N1 or another strain. If we do not prepare then we will lose about 5%-20% of the population, so putting the efforts of a millionth of one percent of the world population to stopping it seems like pretty damn cheap insurance. Now should there be all the media hype, not sure but if the population isn't aware then there is little chance of an effective widespread action being manageable.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    25. Re:Good news... by plague3106 · · Score: 1

      Sooner or later there WILL be another flu with the ability to kill millions. The only way we have of preventing another 1919 is to spot the threat before it gets going and prepare a vaccine. Hence the worry over H5N1. It's entirely possible that it will all blow over. It's also possible that it will mutate to a form that can spread from one human to another, and become pandemic. If it doesn't, well, great. If it does, we'll be glad we prepared.

      I'd think the chances of it mutating to something that would be as devistating are much less than the chances of it mutating to something else that people can't catch easily.

    26. Re:Good news... by plague3106 · · Score: 1

      All of them will happen eventually.

      While this is true, 'eventually' may be 100 years. Its been almost 90 years since the last big flu.. and it could be 90 more before there's another.

    27. Re:Good news... by gg3po · · Score: 1

      That's because there's big money in blowing certain things out of propotion.

      The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. -- FDR

      --
      ---
    28. Re:Good news... by Qzukk · · Score: 1

      While this is true, 'eventually' may be 100 years. Its been almost 90 years since the last big flu.. and it could be 90 more before there's another.

      And? If you're in America, check your gas pump. This is exactly the thinking that has led us to increasing gasoline prices. "There's plenty of oil", "there won't be a crisis for years and years", and "if we run out of oil, the magic invention fairy will hit us with something new". Meanwhile, we still haven't reached the cost of gasoline in Europe and people are already sobbing and whining and begging for anything to be done to make it cheaper... except for coming up with new fuels.

      Sure, there might not be another flu pandemic for 100 years, but when it happens, do you want the problem to have already been solved, or do you want 50% of your crisis control staff turning purple and falling over dead at their posts?

      --
      If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
    29. Re:Good news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or it could be tomorrow, literally.

      Look, when this happens, it will be beyond horrible. People don't want to face that, so they point at the uncertainly of it happening and the fact the media overhypes it (as they overhype many things). This isn't the horror/disaster movie of the week, even if ABC is trying to turn it into one.

      H5N1 looks like a possible candidate for a pandemic, but it would have to mutate before it is a problem. Note that the federal government is taking this seriously and that important players in the medical community are saying we need to watch H5N1. We need to pay attention (and not panic) because we can't wait until the last minute and expect to make a difference.

      I hope you are right about it being 90 years before another major pandemic.

    30. Re:Good news... by plague3106 · · Score: 1

      And? If you're in America, check your gas pump. This is exactly the thinking that has led us to increasing gasoline prices. "There's plenty of oil", "there won't be a crisis for years and years", and "if we run out of oil, the magic invention fairy will hit us with something new". Meanwhile, we still haven't reached the cost of gasoline in Europe and people are already sobbing and whining and begging for anything to be done to make it cheaper... except for coming up with new fuels.

      Ugh. First, oil doesn't randomly appear and disapper. There's a finite amount of it. A virus mutating is pretty much random, and a lot of things have to come together for it to actually start killing lots of people. Secondly, oil prices aren't high because we are running out quickly, they are high because 1) demand has dramatically increased, worldwide and 2) oil companies are colluding to keep prices high.

      Finally, THEY ARE LOOKING AT ALTERNATE FULES. Or have you missed the hybrid cars many manufacterers are selling. Did you also happen to miss the corn based fuels which I think Ford cars may run on. To say they aren't trying to come up with new alternatives it just stupid.

      Sure, there might not be another flu pandemic for 100 years, but when it happens, do you want the problem to have already been solved, or do you want 50% of your crisis control staff turning purple and falling over dead at their posts?

      Again, you're showing lack of thought here. What makes you think the flu that hits in 100 years will be anything like the variants we have today? For all you know, they could be almost unreconizable as a flu virus at all. We will always have diseases, but if you look at history you'll see there are relatively few that even come close to wiping out hordes of people.

    31. Re:Good news... by ocbwilg · · Score: 1

      You don't understand, there WILL be another flu epidemic, whether it is H5N1 or another strain. If we do not prepare then we will lose about 5%-20% of the population, so putting the efforts of a millionth of one percent of the world population to stopping it seems like pretty damn cheap insurance. Now should there be all the media hype, not sure but if the population isn't aware then there is little chance of an effective widespread action being manageable.

      No, I understand that perfectly. What I don't understand is why we're focusing all of our efforts on bird flu, when there are plenty of other bugs out there that have as much potential. The problem I have with it is that people have made the jump from "it is 100% certain that there will eventually be another flu epidemic/pandemic" to "it's going to be bird flu, it's going to kill 10% of the world's population, and it's coming any minute now." Here's a news flash for you: every year there is a worldwide flu epidemic. Every year. Sometimes it's mild, sometimes it's more severe. But it happens every year.

      Also, I don't believe that a bird flu epidemic is going to take out 5-10% of our population. In the brifings this week the US government was talking about potentially 2 million deaths in the US being caused by bird flu, and while that's a lot that's far less than 5% of our population.

      Is anyone here old enough to remember the swine flu "epidemic" of 1976? It also turned out to be all hype, though the vaccinations killed more people than the flu did.

    32. Re:Good news... by Vornzog · · Score: 1
      The media is always blowing something out of proportion as the next big threat to humanity


      While this is *very* true, all it does is lower the signal/noise ratio of your nightly news. Most of the threats they discuss are not very likely to hit, and if they do, wouldn't really cause that much destruction.

      Regular old human flu kills many thousands of people every year. SARS has killed a couple thousand - total. The media blew SARS out of proportion. Bird flu is a *much* larger issue.

      Here's why. Flu mutates quickly, so there isn't any universial cure, or vaccine. Several times in the last century, an entirely new strain of flu has entered into the human population. When that happens, we have no immunity to it, and no vaccine. Until very recently, we had no antivirals to treat it.

      Under those conditions, many more people die. Not just the very young or very old, but normally healthy people too.

      1918 is the most famous example of this happening. Conservative estimates place the death toll at 20 million. I've seen estimates as high as 100 million. That's a lot of people.

      1918 was an entirely avian flu - humans had no resistances to it. In 1957, then again in 1958, a hybrid flu, partially avain, partially human, entered the population. These killed many more people that the flu does in a normal year, but no where near what happened in 1918.

      The current H5N1 avain flu scare is real news, because the avian virus has infected humans directly - it hasn't recombined with a human flu. Of the historical examples we have, that makes it most like 1918.

      If we just write this off as sensationalist journalism, and it hits, the whole world is screwed. If a loved one dies in a pandemic, and the government hasn't done everything in it's power to prepare it, people like you will turn hypocrite and start screaming for the president's head. Hell, that'll probably happen no matter how prepared we are.

      More importantly, with flu it is a question of when, not if. Even if the H5N1 strain fades out and never amounts to anything, there are already more strains waiting in the wings. H7N7 is another strain that has jumped directly from avains to humans in recent years. Its not as wide spread, it's mortality rate is lower. But if it mutates, and learns to jump from human to human...

      Just because the media is sensationalist, it doesn't mean that you can't die from $THREAT_OF_THE_WEEK (you probably won't). Just because bird flu gets lumped in with SARS, bees and anthrax, it doesn't mean it isn't a real threat (it is a very real threat). Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me (I've taken too long to write this post already - time go back into hiding).
      --

      -V-

      Who can decide a priori? Nobody.
      -Sartre

    33. Re:Good news... by 7Prime · · Score: 1

      lol, that is one of the dumbest, most blinded statements I've heard in a long time. There probably have been already millions that have changed into "damaged" forms which can't be transmitted. You know what happens to them? They don't get transmitted, which means those forms stop right there. The problem is, the moment a single virus developes that is MORE easilly transferable, it will be able to grow much faster in numbers than any other form of the virus. It's natural selection, the only variables in this case are time and chance. So, if the virus, as a whole, mutates into something else, I hate to say it, but it's not going to get less transferable, it will only become more transferable.

      --
      Multiplayer Gaming (defined): Sitting around, discussing single-player games with my friends, at the bar.
    34. Re:Good news... by plague3106 · · Score: 1

      lol, that is one of the dumbest, most blinded statements I've heard in a long time. There probably have been already millions that have changed into "damaged" forms which can't be transmitted. You know what happens to them? They don't get transmitted, which means those forms stop right there. The problem is, the moment a single virus developes that is MORE easilly transferable, it will be able to grow much faster in numbers than any other form of the virus. It's natural selection, the only variables in this case are time and chance. So, if the virus, as a whole, mutates into something else, I hate to say it, but it's not going to get less transferable, it will only become more transferable.

      You clearly don't know what you're talking about. You act as if the virus is trying different combinations until it finds the right one to easily infect us. Just because a mutation occured that made it less trasferable does not rule out the possiblity that same mutation will occur again. It will likely remain just as transferable as it does now. Its really really hard for a virus to cross species. And if you look at the people that did manage to catch it, they practiclly live with chickens and other fowl. As soon as they move the birds out of the house, I'm willing to bet that future cases disappear.

      The fact is if you look at this and SARS and ebola and killer bees and the host of other things that are going to be super deadly for us, none of them have come to pass. The media eventually realizes that the disease is going no where fast, and move on to something else. I bet by this time next year we'll no longer be hearing about the bird flu at all.

    35. Re:Good news... by crabpeople · · Score: 1

      "Our society tends to ignore events with a low probability of occuring. (What are the odds a hurricane could hit New Orleans, right?)"

      well considering its a southern costal us city, in proximity to other costal places that regularly get hit by hurricanes, i would say that the odds are very good?

      proof once again you dont have to make, even, sensical statements to get modded up.
      grats

      --
      I'll just use my special getting high powers one more time...
    36. Re:Good news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If we believe the hype that the bird flu is a real threat to the health of the people of the world

      "Terrorism is the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives."

      -- US Federal Bureau of Investigation

      I believe the current US government is the worst form of terrorism today.

    37. Re:Good news... by TheOtherChimeraTwin · · Score: 1
      I replied to xoyoyo when he made basically the same comment over 5 hours ago. Proof you don't need to actually read the discussion to post karma boosted comments.

      Once again, for the slower crowd: I'm talking about events that have a low probability for any given day, even though they are extremely high probability in the long run.

      The people of New Orleans enjoyed a long period where their city wasn't hit by a major storm. A few people warned that they were are risk, but most people thought nothing worse than previous storms would hit. Of course New Orleans was at risk! The problem is that we don't deal with problems that seem unlikely to happen in a given year. New Orleans did not prepare enough.

      We are in the same situation with bird flu. We don't know the exact odds, but we do have experts who think H5N1 looks like a potential problem. There are steps we can take to prepare (see fluwikie.com for suggestions). The downside of not preparing is enormous.

      So what is the chance we'll be hit by a 1918-style (or worse) flu pandemic? No one knows. But I don't think that number is more than a couple of percent for a typical year. (This might not be a typical year, since H5N1 is spreading through the bird population, and people have died from it.) People don't want to worry about it because of the low probability of a pandemic for a given year, the uncertainty about that probability, and the hellacious experience of the 1918 flu. With something that scary, it is easier to just say that it isn't likely to happen.

      It is important that we all take steps to prepare for a pandemic at the world, federal, state, local and personal level.

    38. Re:Good news... by AndersOSU · · Score: 1

      I'm not an expert on any of this, but I try to stay relatively well informed, and my take is that it is almost exactly like the virus is trying different combinations until it finds the right one.

      Random mutations happen, if a mutation does not make it extra contagious it dies out. On the other hand the one time it does become more virulent - hits the right combination so to speak - and becomes easily transferred human to human resulting it results in a pandemic.

      Will it happen? I dunno, but it could.

      There is an infinitely greater pool of "wrong" mutations; we don't care about those. The one time it gets it right we are in trouble.

    39. Re:Good news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Sorry, I think the good doctor is right (that would be Dr. Gerberding, director of the CDC)!!

      There is a far greater likelihood of an asteroid hitting the Earth than this avian birdy flu destroying us.....

    40. Re:Good news... by Forbman · · Score: 1

      Short-term, a loss of 20% of human population will be a bad thing simply from that tragedy. But what would happen economically? What of all this industrial and chemical capacity that now won't be able to make stuff at a high enough price point for companies to make money at making things? Again, probably a one-generation problem, but it'll be one hell of a growth opportunity after that. And, it all depends on where people die.

      If migratory waterfowl do spread it initially, would Africa perhaps fare better than Asia/Europe/Americas (do mallard ducks migrate down to Africa, or do they really prefer more temperate climates?), or would they really be in deep shit because now there's not enough people over hear to help move all that cheap, excess stuff from the Americas to Africa, there is no US military to potentially wave a heavy whuppass stick on whichever banana republic tinpot dictator develops due to the global power vacuum, etc.?

      At least in David Gerrold's Chtorr Invasion world, most product manufacturing was highly automated throughout most of the system, and could still keep pumping out products more or less on its own, albeit at slower and slower rates (equipment breaks down and not enough people to fix it or feed raw materials to it, ground lost to pink powder and worms, etc), and it wasn't that much of a problem because so many people were killed off that it basically became a distribution problem of what was laying around in warehouses and factories.

    41. Re:Good news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Finally, THEY ARE LOOKING AT ALTERNATE FULES. Or have you missed the hybrid cars many manufacterers are selling.

      Hybrid cars are just gasoline engines that charge batteries that run an electric motor. Biodiesel and other true alternatives were expensive back when oil was $25 a barrel, but people don't want to have to change their car to run on kitchen scraps and grease now that biodiesel is cheap compared to oil at $70+ a barrel. Gas station owners don't want to change their tanks to allow them to store and dispense biodiesel. Or hydrogen. Or LP. Or electricity. Or plutonium for your Mr. Fusion.

      Fortunately the government bill to give everyone $100 in order to attempt to bribe everyone into pretending the problem doesn't exist fell through. Maybe this means people will not wait to develop oil shale and tar sand mining techniques until after we have no oil left to get the equipment from the factory to the site. Or maybe it means we'll drain the ANWR dry and leave the problem to our great grandchildren to figure out as they curse our lack of foresight.

      What makes you think the flu that hits in 100 years will be anything like the variants we have today?

      What makes you think tamiflu (which is not a vaccine against a particular strain of flu, but rather treats some of the more dangerous symptoms exhibited by people with the flu) won't be effective against the strain that hits 100 years from now? What makes you think that the research into the virulence of flu in general won't help us control the outbreak? For all we know, someone might discover that the influenza virus has a marker other than the HxNy marker that is more consistent across mutations that could be targetted by a vaccine that could solve the problem permanently.

    42. Re:Good news... by 7Prime · · Score: 1

      Thank you. That pretty much hits the nail on the head. It is difficult trying to explain the basics of natural selection to someone who doesn't understand it. But yeah, even though the mutational process may be random, the effect is that only the "good" mutations survive, it will look as if only mostly possitive mutations will have a wide effect on a species. Whether or not a virus is actually an organism is irrelivent, they still go through the same basic evolutionary process that organisms do.

      For an example, let's say I'm putting a bunch of beatles through a siv. The bigger beatles that don't fall through the cracks get thrown into a meat grinder and come out in someone's hotdog. The smaller beatles are all allowed to breed, and then every so often, I put them through the siv, and so on and so forth. In the end, since all the bigger beatles are thrown into hotdogs and aren't allowed to breed, the genes of the smaller beatles will be left, and eventually, all the offspring of the beatles will fall through the siv. I can continue doing this process by making the screen smaller and smaller, and I will eventually make smaller and smaller beatles.

      Now, simply superimpose the concept of the siv into that which keeps an organism from passing from one host to another. If the organism that can pass from one host to another have a better chance of surviving and spreading their genes (they do, since they can escape from the host before it either dies, or has a chance for the immune system to kill off the parasite), then eventually, the organisms that have the better "passing" genes will become the dominant strain, and multiply so that all the organisms have the "passing" genes.

      --
      Multiplayer Gaming (defined): Sitting around, discussing single-player games with my friends, at the bar.
    43. Re:Good news... by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

      For an example, let's say I'm putting a bunch of beatles through a siv.

      Geez, and I thought Yoko Ono was a bitch...

      --
      "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  4. So patent it quickly by expro · · Score: 1

    Before any useful medical advancement becomes available to the general public. Yes, this is a cynical remark. Is any other kind of a remark merited by the way things work today?

    1. Re:So patent it quickly by TripMaster+Monkey · · Score: 1

      From TFA:
      The Tamiflu molecule itself is patented, regardless of how it is made, and Roche holds the rights to the patent. But in 2005 Roche said it would not stop other companies making Tamiflu under license, which is expressly permitted by international law in any case.
      --
      ____

      ~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey

    2. Re:So patent it quickly by Bromskloss · · Score: 1
      Roche said it would not stop other companies making Tamiflu under license
      Hmm, for free or for a fee equal to ten times the wealth of all of mankind?
      --
      Swedish plasma phys. PhD student; MSc EE; knows maths, programming, electronics; finance interest; seeks opportunities
    3. Re:So patent it quickly by TapeCutter · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Roche have dragged their heels with licenses for over a year, they finally issued a few licenses after several governments threatened to force a license agreement on them. Regardless of the eventual merits of the drug, Roche's lengthy "license negotiations" are an exercise in pure greed.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  5. Thanks, but... by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 3, Funny

    Thanks, but no thanks. I prefer the highly explosive vaccine, thank you very much...

    --
    This guy's the limit!
    1. Re:Thanks, but... by Bromskloss · · Score: 1
      Thanks, but no thanks. I prefer the highly explosive vaccine, thank you very much...
      I tried it, but _man_ does it hurt your throat!
      --
      Swedish plasma phys. PhD student; MSc EE; knows maths, programming, electronics; finance interest; seeks opportunities
    2. Re:Thanks, but... by LiquidCoooled · · Score: 1

      Here, have a coffee to help your throat.

      --
      liqbase :: faster than paper
    3. Re:Thanks, but... by digitaldc · · Score: 1

      Thanks, but no thanks. I prefer the highly explosive vaccine, thank you very much...

      What? You haven't heard about Wolfgang Puck's NEW Self-Heating Roast Chicken w/Tamiflu Gravy?

      It's literally flying off the shelves!

      --
      He who knows best knows how little he knows. - Thomas Jefferson
    4. Re:Thanks, but... by IAmTheDave · · Score: 1
      plentiful petrochemicals

      Great. Fossil fuels. Tamiflu, now topping $3/gallon.

      --
      Excuse my speling.
      Making The Bar Project
    5. Re:Thanks, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks, but no thanks. I prefer the highly explosive vaccine, thank you very much...

      Yeah, it goes great with his morning coffee.

  6. Biggest chance to save people? by mothlos · · Score: 2, Insightful

    How about education and municipal plans to regarding epidemics? Anti-virals might be the best chance of treating those who have bird flu, but the best practice is to contain the virus early and give the medical community time to develop a real vaccine defense.

  7. This is nice work, but... by thisisfrankscortex · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I think the most notable thing about this paper is that the last sentances read "It is our hope that the process described herein will be of value in improving the opply of oseltamivir and in reducing the cost. With regard to the latter, the process described herein in in the (unpatented) public domain."

    1. Re:This is nice work, but... by thisisfrankscortex · · Score: 1

      and I obviously mistyped supply

    2. Re:This is nice work, but... by darkmeridian · · Score: 1

      It's so nice to see old-school geeks at work. I don't mean that in a bad way. Corey is known for the Corey-House process in organic chemistry, and basically is the father of organic chemistry. He won the Nobel Prize in 1990, and it isn't surprising he hasn't patented the process. Of course, he's also infamous for a suicide of one of his graduate students...

      --
      A NYC lawyer blogs. http://www.chuangblog.com/
  8. Bird Flu, The Biggest Pandemic That Never Was! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    OMFG!!! This virus could possibly, might, maybe jump from birds to people. It could possibly, might, maybe spread all over the world on the wings of birds or Boeing 747's. It could possibly, might, maybe be the end of man kind.

    The sky is falling! The sky is falling. Bird flu is coming, we're all going to die!

    Oh, it's all conjecture? Never mind.

    1. Re:Bird Flu, The Biggest Pandemic That Never Was! by brian0918 · · Score: 1
    2. Re:Bird Flu, The Biggest Pandemic That Never Was! by FrenchSilk · · Score: 1

      Thank you for pointing this video out. Charlie Rose has assembled a great panel, which had a great discussion of bird flu. The full version is very much worth the 99 cents.

  9. We just need Yogi Bear. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    I hear Yogi Bear is quite good at getting baskets full of shikimic. I might have heard wrong, though.

    Hey Boo-Boo, let's go grab the shik-a-mic basket, the mi-grr-a-tor-ee birds are coming with the flooo!

  10. Real threat? Real solution? by hj43us · · Score: 3, Funny

    Till know aound 50 people worldwide had died of bird flu. I guess more people die being stroke by a lightning. But the worst thing is that nobody knows whether Tamiflu will cure bird flu or not. Meanwhile health authorities all over the wold had been doing massive buys of that medicine ... sounds weird. I, for one, start a business of selling a new drug that is suppossed to protect you against being struck by a lightning. I'm already taking orders. Anyone?

    1. Re:Real threat? Real solution? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      D. Rumsfeld...the same guy to bring aspartame (diet cokes) now brings us Tamiflu. Its all bout the money.

    2. Re:Real threat? Real solution? by Bromskloss · · Score: 1
      I, for one, start a business of selling a new drug that is suppossed to protect you against being struck by a lightning.
      Well, there is a difference, I would say. The "states" of bird flu and lightning strikes cannot be described by only one number (the current death rate). What I meant is that a contagious disease can experience an explosive increase if the conditions are the right ones. I suppose this could happen if the number of infected people in an area exceeds a certain number (similar to how a fission chain reaction becomes self sustaining when the amount of fuel exceeds the critical mass). A lightning, on the other hand, wont strike you anymore just because other people around you just got struck.
      --
      Swedish plasma phys. PhD student; MSc EE; knows maths, programming, electronics; finance interest; seeks opportunities
    3. Re:Real threat? Real solution? by Tibor+the+Hun · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The problem with your argument is that chickens do not transmit lightning strikes to each other, nor has it ever been documented that one organizm can transmit a lightning strike to another. (Though there is a Sci-ops contingent known as E.E.L.S. that has moderate success.)

      --
      If you don't know what AltaVista is (was), get off my lawn.
    4. Re:Real threat? Real solution? by badmammajamma · · Score: 1

      "But the worst thing is that nobody knows whether Tamiflu will cure bird flu or not."

      This is similar to the flu shot people get every year. They take a guess as to what form the flu will take and then produce a vaccine for it. Of course, the flu that actually spreads around may be completely different, thus negating any benefit of getting the shot. Consequently, I don't bother with the flu shot.

      --
      Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. -- H. L. Mencken
    5. Re:Real threat? Real solution? by thrillseeker · · Score: 1
      D. Rumsfeld...the same guy to bring aspartame (diet cokes) now brings us Tamiflu. Its all bout the money.

      He wouldn't be getting any money if people didn't want to buy what he was selling, now would he?

  11. Petrochemicals? by MOtisBeard · · Score: 2, Funny
    Tamiflu is made from petrochemicals???

    How long before we see a story about making bioTamiflu out of used vegetable oil from McDonald's?

    1. Re:Petrochemicals? by LiquidCoooled · · Score: 1

      Well, with cars turning to alternative fuels, the big petrolium companies need to sell to someone.

      --
      liqbase :: faster than paper
    2. Re:Petrochemicals? by Sigg3.net · · Score: 1

      McFlu? McTami?
      Please. I wouldn't eat it if my life depended on it.
      You'll have college kids switching it with sugar pills just for the kick of it.

    3. Re:Petrochemicals? by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      Our modern way of live is built on a cheap energy foundation. Also, the same product that provides energy is also used to make all sorts of materials (plastics for example. Simply put everything we do depends on hydro-carbons.

      Guess where we get most of our hydro-carbon. Oil. Good news however, we can synthizise hydro-carbons from plant oils and not just crude oil. Rather simple process really.

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
  12. Bird flu? by jm91509 · · Score: 1

    Who else read this and only saw "highly explosive" and spent 20 mins looking up stuff that exploded.

    Bah to your end of the world disease, I was stuff that blows up.

    1. Re:Bird flu? by Lehk228 · · Score: 1

      *raises hand*

      --
      Snowden and Manning are heroes.
    2. Re:Bird flu? by mgblst · · Score: 3, Funny

      *raised stump*

    3. Re:Bird flu? by tinkerghost · · Score: 1

      My organic chem teacher used to start every lab with a new "Do NOT do this [insert process] it WILL explode" I dutifully wrote every one of them down .... by the end of the year my lab book made the Anarchist's cookbook look like Betty Crocker.

  13. For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by brian0918 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    For anyone who believes that it is all hype, or knows little about bird flu, I highly recommend this extremely informative discussion Charlie Rose had with 3 experts on the subject. It is by no means overly technical.

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2343414988 689203314

    The truth is that it is not hype; just because we know about it well ahead of the time when it will actually affect us doesn't mean that it will not be a threat. The most interesting part of that discussion is the possibility that people with AIDS will be the least likely to be harmed by bird flu, since it is the overactive immune system--in response to the foreign disease--that ultimately kills you.

    1. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by brian0918 · · Score: 1

      And by "3 experts", I meant 5 or 6 experts...

    2. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And by "5 or 6 experts", I mean 5 or 6 people who like hearing themselves talk, and just happen to have some sort of degree/job that is vaugely relevant to the subect...

    3. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by brian0918 · · Score: 1

      "I mean 5 or 6 people who like hearing themselves talk, and just happen to have some sort of degree/job that is vaugely relevant to the subect"

      Ahh, can't afford the 99 cents to actually watch the video? Or were you just distracted by something shiny?

    4. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by 955301 · · Score: 1


      Hang on a sec... the head of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention is "vaguely relevant to the subject"... So are general's vaguely relevant to wars that participate in?

      --
      You are checking your backups, aren't you?
    5. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by hackstraw · · Score: 1

      For anyone who believes that it is all hype, or knows little about bird flu

      http://www.google.com/search?q=rumsfeld+tamiflu

      Brought to you by the WMD inventor, Rumsfeld, himself.

      Why do people keep believing lies?

      What's next? Domino theory?

    6. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by Professr3 · · Score: 1

      If the problem is peoples' immune systems, why don't they just give the victims some immunosupressants?

    7. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by Holi · · Score: 1

      Oh please I don't like Rumsfeld anymore then you but the man has done everything he could do short of getting rid of his shares to have no say in the governments response to the bird flu. For once he has done the right thing. Now I have a hard time believing this is going to be the flu that bites us in the ass, It's going to be the one were not focusing on that gets us. It's like Natures going "Hey look over here, OoooOOooo bird flu" then wham some virulent form of pig flu is gonna smack us down.

      --
      Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
    8. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by gg3po · · Score: 1

      Whether the "bird flu" is hype or not, Tamiflu® is not the solution. What it is, however, is a great opportunity for some people to make a buck on what could be (or not) a serious issue.

      --
      ---
    9. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by brian0918 · · Score: 1

      "If the problem is peoples' immune systems, why don't they just give the victims some immunosupressants?"

      I don't think you understand the situation. AIDS drops your immune system down so low that you die from common illnesses like the cold. While people with AIDS might be able to resist the bird flu, they're still going to die young. It might be that we would have to pump people with enough immunosupressants that they might as well have AIDS, unless the virus doesn't plan to stick around year after year like the human flu.

    10. Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat by Professr3 · · Score: 1

      Are immunosupressants such an on-or-off thing? You'd think a little bit would just keep the immune system throttled back enough to avoid killing the person, while still fighting off the virus. Once you fight it off once, you're immune.

  14. Oh, wonderful! by jht · · Score: 1

    Now there's yet another thing to drive up the price of oil! Just what we needed!

    (yes, that was sarcastic...)

    --
    -- Josh Turiel
    "2. Do not eat iPod Shuffle."
    1. Re:Oh, wonderful! by Tibor+the+Hun · · Score: 1

      HAH!
      The joke's on you.
      With the truck maintainers, dispatchers, drivers, train loaders, controllers and engineers, grocery chain administrators, stockers, floorpeople and salespeople staying home either sick, hungry, scared or dying there won't be any need for gas!

      That's the best part of it, see, the gorillas will just freeze in the winter!

      --
      If you don't know what AltaVista is (was), get off my lawn.
  15. Exactly by moultano · · Score: 1

    There aren't too many people around that still remember the 1918 pandemic, but if you have records of your relatives that were alive at the time, odds are at least one of them died of the flu.

    1. Re:Exactly by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      And ....Keep in mind with your good statements, the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
      was a Bird Flu, thou the 1918 variety had a lower mortality rate...

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1N1

      Ex-MislTech

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    2. Re:Exactly by Captain+Splendid · · Score: 1

      Or asbestos poisoning.

      --
      Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
    3. Re:Exactly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, all of my grandparents and both of my parents were killed in the 1918 pandemic. Luckily, that was many years before I was born. ...hey...wait a sec...that can't be right...there's a disturbance in the matrix!

  16. petrochemical eh? by lashi · · Score: 1

    "a new way to make the drug from two cheap, plentiful petrochemicals, acrylate and butadiene"

    Petrochemical eh? as in petro based? Does this mean gas price is going up more once we start making these drugs? :)

    1. Re:petrochemical eh? by CheeseTroll · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the upside is that you'll be able to fuel your car with Tamiflu pills.

      --
      A post a day keeps productivity at bay.
  17. Mod parent down by brian0918 · · Score: 1

    Are we to trust a random person on /. to look for "credible evidence", or the opinion of several experts actively working on the subject:

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2343414988 689203314

  18. Three cheers for EJ Corey by per1odic · · Score: 0

    This guys is a fucking genius I kid you not. Don't believe all the bad stories about him harassing his graduate students. If you get out of his lab with a Ph.D. you have tons of job offers, all in the very very high salary range. A bit of struggle is OK for that. Anyways, nice to know an organic chemist gets the spotlight for once. And very relieving to see that org. chem. is not a dying science.

    --
    If you are a smelly south indian, I hate you and I think that you are racially inferior. But that's just my opinion.
    1. Re:Three cheers for EJ Corey by thisisfrankscortex · · Score: 1

      He may be a genius, but he is a fucking tool as well. He claims credit for the woodward-hoffman rules: Says Corey: "You [Hoffman] cannot deny that despite the possibility of appalling dishonesty at the roots of your collaboration with Bob [Woodward], you elected to close your mind. . .please consider that history many not deal leniently in this matter, taking seriously the possibility not only of Bob's dishonesty, but of your own not unwitting participation in the extension of fraud."

    2. Re:Three cheers for EJ Corey by per1odic · · Score: 0

      I never once doubted Corey's story. What's wrong with a genius fighting for his rightful credit?

      --
      If you are a smelly south indian, I hate you and I think that you are racially inferior. But that's just my opinion.
  19. Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by chromozone · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Tamiflu won't work. The H5N1 virus can mutate into a form unaffected by Tamiflu. In Vietnam four out of eight avian flu patients who were given the medication died despite the treatment.

    (CTV NEWS) http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNew s/20051221/tamiflu_drug_051221/20051221

    Many top experts are advising to prepare for the worst. The US gov. is urging people to store food that could last for three months. In the UK mass graves are being planed openly. Forget Tamiflu:

    (BBC) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4869224.stm

    1. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1
      Many top experts are advising to prepare for the worst.

      Cite? All the real experts I have read want to throttle the world media for creating mass hysteria.

    2. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by vidarh · · Score: 1
      It's a pretty long stretch to say that it is ineffective based on a 50% death rate in a sample of 8 patients. You don't know how many of those patients would have died without Tamiflu for starters.

      And if you bother to read the articles you've linked, you'll find that in the case of the UK, how to handle burials is being discussed in addition to Tamiflu and vaccines as a precautionary measure - you really don't want to risk a situation where a large number of people die and you can't deal with the bodies and end up getting diseases like typhoid, cholera and dysentery adding to the death toll...

    3. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by MrTester · · Score: 1

      Yes, lets forget Tamiflu. Obviously saving half of many millions of people is not worth the effort.

    4. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by cruachan · · Score: 1

      Firstly it's known Tamiflu has to be administered in the initial stages of the infection or else it's effectiveness is severely reduced. So, the Vietnam cases don't really contribute anything in this context.

      Secondly whilst there has been evidence of resistance, well documented in some cases, that is not at all the same thing as resistance being a problem in practice. Resistance in viruses is NOT the same as in bacteria and this is causing a great deal of confusion. In Japan, where Tamiflu has been routinely prescibed for several years for 'normal' flu resistance has been seen to arise in some cases, but the 'wild' strains of the virus remain vulnerable to Tamiflu. This suggests that Tamiflu-resistance comes with sufficient costs to the virus that it is selected against.

      Also, don't forget that a) H5N1 has to mutate considerably before it can cause a human pandemic so it's pathogenity now is not necessarily any guide to the human pandemic form, and b) the next pandemic might well come from a different strain entirely. This 40 year cycle is not written in tablets of stone anywhere and H5N1 could be a complete red-herring.

    5. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by chromozone · · Score: 1

      Here's one expert who was recently featured:

      (ABC News) http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/AvianFlu/story?id=172480 1

        Excerpts:

      Robert G. Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real threat to humans?

      There are "about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human," he told ABC's "World News Tonight." Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited as the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.

      "I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations," said Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak."

    6. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1

      Even odds across what time period? I can't find that crucial piece of opinion anywhere? Pretty much everything possible becomes an even money gamble across a sufficiently large time span.

    7. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by chromozone · · Score: 1

      From other outbreaks of the H5N1 virus the mortality rate being quoted is about 50%. In the Vietnam case the mortality rate was about the same even with Tamiflu in use (and it was administered under optimal conditions).

      From the article linked:

      "Toronto infectious disease consultant Dr. Neil Rau says the study has serious implications...

      "Here you have the optimal situations, the right dose, the right duration, the right timing and administration and yet you have a bad outcome. That's not a good thing to see," Rau told CTV News.

      A lot of experts were surprised what happened in Vietnam. None that I have seen were satisfied with the Tamiflu.

      On May 5, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) ministers met and H5N1 was a topic. WHO's Vietnam chief Hans Troedsson said: "The virus attacks multiple organs, including the kidneys and respiratory system, said WHO's Vietnam chief Hans Troedsson. 'It is very, very nasty,' he said. 'It has a high mortality rate, up to 50 percent, which is very rare.'

      (Forbes) http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/afx/2006/05/05/af x2723635.html

      I don't think its wise to relay on Tamiflu. This makes people falsely optimistic and lazy. We are in for a nasty time.

      I only mention the BBC article because Governments usually try to play these things down. For H5N1 they are all being unusually dire and forthright. I think they know it will be even worse than the 2% mortality rate they often mention.

    8. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by chromozone · · Score: 1

      Yes that is a good point about the next pandemic coming from a different strain. I would hope H5N1 never really amounts to much. I'm just of the opinion that we are ripe for a large Malthusian moment. We have Burgeoning population centers, lowered hygiene standards, barley moderated travel and immigration (outbreaks of mumps, bed bugs and bubonic plague turning up in same weeks news in US - immigration related)and many people are more sick and run down then ever (New York Times wrote of one study alone that counts 1 in 7 New Yorkers as diabetic!).

      I think people want to believe Tamiflu will be there to protect them and I can't feel confident about it personally when I saw the ripples of shock moving through the medical community. From CTV article above:

      "Toronto infectious disease consultant Dr. Neil Rau says the study has serious implications.

      "Here you have the optimal situations, the right dose, the right duration, the right timing and administration and yet you have a bad outcome. That's not a good thing to see," Rau told CTV News.

      Thankfully it is harder for H5N1 to mutate than say a bacterium. But once it does it's also harder to remedy. I would be all for Tamiflu if I thought it would help but ti doesn't look so promising I would bet my life on it. I also think it just diminishes peoples resolve and they just keep eating and drinking crap expecting the government and doctors will be there to swoop in with the quick fix. Discussions about closing borders (US) in the event of a deadly pandemic are already being dismissed as an "over reaction".

    9. Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective by chromozone · · Score: 1

      It is worth the effort - but Tamiflu is wasted effort. If mortality in a group using Tamiflu is the same as a group not using Tamiflu then where is the advantage?

  20. Nonsense by brian0918 · · Score: 1

    "Till know aound 50 people worldwide had died of bird flu."

    The threat is not from this form of bird flu. The threat is from a form that can be transferred from human to human. If that happens, predictions are that it could kill upwards of 70 million people. For informed opinions, as opposed to random /. opinions, see this extremely informative discussion with experts:

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2343414988 689203314

    1. Re:Nonsense by Cadallin · · Score: 1
      ummm, yeah, 70 million people that's a lot right? wait, whats the total human population right now? >6Billion?

      Somehow I'm not really worried. This disease doesn't even have the potential to slow down human population growth.

    2. Re:Nonsense by brian0918 · · Score: 1

      "ummm, yeah, 70 million people that's a lot right? wait, whats the total human population right now? >6Billion?"

      Those 70 million won't be spread equally among the 6 billion, but be concentrated in cities. If it was spread equally, 1 in 85 people would die. That's about half as likely as you getting in a car accident, which is one of the most (or the most?) common dangers for people, at least in the U.S. If you yourself don't get the human-to-human bird flu, you would likely know several friends or relatives who have it.

    3. Re:Nonsense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The good news is.. I bet the crime rates would drop dramatically in the inner cities.

  21. Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered? by vertinox · · Score: 1

    You mean they discovered patent reform?

    --
    "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
    -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    1. Re:Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Great Nation of China has sent a diplomatic mission.

      You offer: Mass Production

      You receive: Patent Reform

  22. RTFWA by PatrickThomson · · Score: 3, Informative

    from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamiflu and tfa, it seems that the new process which this article is about has been released patent free. IAAOC (I am an organic chemist) and the new synthesis is safer and less dependant on difficult-to-obtain natural precursors. These guys should be applauded for sacrificing a profitable idea for the greater good.

    --
    I am one of many. My idea is not unique, nor do I expect my voice alone to sway you. I speak in a chorus of opinion.
  23. That is it! by RafaelGCPP · · Score: 1
    1. Find a new, cheaper way to synthesize Tamiflu
    2. Keep the prices unchanged
    3. ??
    4. HUGE profit
    --
    "There is always an easy solution to every human problem -- neat, plausible, and wrong."
    H. L. Mencken
    1. Re:That is it! by PatrickThomson · · Score: 1

      With this new patent-free formula, any old company can knock up generic tamiflu and undercut HLR. GSK, I'm looking at you.

      --
      I am one of many. My idea is not unique, nor do I expect my voice alone to sway you. I speak in a chorus of opinion.
  24. Educate yourself by GuloGulo2 · · Score: 3, Informative

    "Influenza
                        o The "Asiatic Flu", 1889-1890. Was first reported in May of 1889 in Bukhara, Russia. By October, it had reached Tomsk and the Caucasus. It rapidly spread west and hit North America in December 1889, South America in February-April 1890, India in February-March 1890, and Australia in March-April 1890. It was purportedly caused by the H2N8 type of flu virus and had a very high attack and mortality rate.
                        o The "Spanish flu", 1918-1919. First identified early March 1918 in US troops training at Camp Funstan, Kansas, by October 1918 it had spread to become a world-wide pandemic on all continents. Unusually deadly and virulent, it ended nearly as quickly as it began, vanishing completely within 18 months. In six months, 25 million were dead; some estimates put the total of those killed worldwide at over twice that number. An estimated 17 million died in India, 500,000 in the United States and 200,000 in the UK. The virus was recently reconstructed by scientists at the CDC studying remains preserved by the Alaskan permafrost. They identified it as a type of H1N1 virus.
                        o The "Asian Flu", 1957-58. An H2N2 caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States. First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957.
                        o The "Hong Kong Flu", 1968-69. An H3N2 caused about 34,000 deaths in the United States. This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year. Influenza A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today"

    None of your other examples prove anything about flu. All it proves it that you never bothered to look up just how dangerous flu pandemics are.

    "While they're all threats, they aren't just going to all of a sudden just break out all over the place."

    Um, yes actually, that's exactly what will happen with the flu.

    "When it explodes, THEN freak out about it, but until then enjoy life."

    Yeah, great, why would we be developing effective treatments, exapnding our knowledge of virus pathology, and improving our procedures, when we could be drinking margaritas and listening to reggae.

    Newsflash, you lay the groundwork for dealing with outbreaks before they happen. Your stupid plan results in more deaths.

    1. Re:Educate yourself by mikeisme77 · · Score: 1

      I wasn't saying don't research cures--by all means do that. I was speaking more in terms of the general public. And all of those examples, the largest death toll was still "only" 50 million or so world wide. That's a far cry from shutting down 3/4 of the US and such that the media predicts. I'm not saying it's not bad, I'm just saying it's blown totally out of proportion. If the media were right on even half their claims, the human race would already be extinct...

    2. Re:Educate yourself by meringuoid · · Score: 2, Interesting
      And all of those examples, the largest death toll was still "only" 50 million or so world wide. That's a far cry from shutting down 3/4 of the US and such that the media predicts.

      I hear that the British government are setting up contingency plans to dispose of around 300,000 bodies, as a worst-case scenario: that's about one twentieth of the population. Doesn't seem so much on the face of it, does it? Surely we can cope without 5%.

      But for everyone killed, how many spend weeks off work on a sickbed? How many do not fall ill, but stay off work to minimise their potential exposure, at the office and on buses or the Tube? And what if the one killed happens to be the boss? Or the only guy who knows the root password? And remember also that with these diseases, the young and healthy - and hence economically active - are worst hit, because death is often caused by an over-reaction of the immune system.

      I can quite imagine that a flu killing one in twenty in this way could completely paralyse the national economy for the duration.

      --
      Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
    3. Re:Educate yourself by vidarh · · Score: 2, Informative
      I hear that the British government are setting up contingency plans to dispose of around 300,000 bodies, as a worst-case scenario: that's about one twentieth of the population.

      The UK has 60 million inhabitants, not 6 million... So it's 0.5%, not 5%.

    4. Re:Educate yourself by meringuoid · · Score: 2
      The UK has 60 million inhabitants, not 6 million... So it's 0.5%, not 5%.

      See, here's why I probably shouldn't stick away a couple of pints at lunchtime and then try to do mental arithmetic. Misplaced decimal point, editing out 54 million people from the UK. Oops.

      That said, some among the Scots, Welsh and Not Quite Irish would probably appreciate the removal of 54 million people from the UK :-)

      --
      Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
    5. Re:Educate yourself by Gattman01 · · Score: 1
      And what if the one killed happens to be the boss? Or the only guy who knows the root password?


      We call it the "What if someone gets hit by a bus plan" here.

      Keep coworkers informed of you projects and their status. Like via email or a ticket tracking system.
      Keep the root passwords in sealed envelops in a fire-proof case. A couple of people have the key for, or know where the keys are.


      Its not completely perfect, like if everyone gets knocked out at the same time. It does help to reduce those specific risks, however.
    6. Re:Educate yourself by crabpeople · · Score: 1

      well YES lets put all that in perspective shall we

      the last year of a pandemic 34k ppl died in the us.

      accoring to wikipedia;
      "The United States gets on average 30,000 car crash related deaths a year (out of a 300 million population)"

      wow look at that. ill take my margarita now.

      --
      I'll just use my special getting high powers one more time...
    7. Re:Educate yourself by Forbman · · Score: 1

      Who will build the first macerator that can take humans?

      (read up on chicken maceraters)

    8. Re:Educate yourself by Forbman · · Score: 1

      I wonder what PeTA and their ilk are cooking up when the time comes to kill a few million chickens in Europe or North America? And what will be the ramifications afterwards?

      I suppose since they haven't done anything yet in Europe that maybe they still have some sense left in their collective bag of marbles.

  25. Tamiflu? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Is this the same Tamiflu that, out of 14 H5N1 avian flu patients who took it, just 2 survived?

    1. Re:Tamiflu? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tamiflu is just a gigantic stock "pump and dump" scam, the charts say everything , the names of the stockholders tell a good story too.

      funny how its just coincidence the same characters names are involved when there are large amounts of cash to be made, it must be like winning the lottery every paycheck

  26. Cytokine Storm == Deadly by gandreas · · Score: 2, Informative
    Check out what Michael Osterholm (the former Minnesota state epidemiologist) has to say: http://citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219 .asp:
    "H5N1 is the most powerful influenza virus we've seen in modern human history"
    and if you don't feel like reading the whole article:
    This virus is quite different from what we see with the standard annual flu, and what we saw in 1957 and 1968, because of the cytokine storm it causes. In 1918, the vast majority of the people who died were healthy young people, 20 to 40 years of age. And that was in large part because they had the strongest immune systems.
    So the fact that the more healthy you are, the more likely this thing could kill you. Yikes!
    1. Re:Cytokine Storm == Deadly by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 2, Funny

      So the fact that the more healthy you are, the more likely this thing could kill you.

      A collective sigh of relief is heard emanating from the readers of slashdot...

      --
      This guy's the limit!
  27. The way I read those articles is by plopez · · Score: 2, Interesting

    1) There probably is no statisically significant data available to determine if tamuflu can stop an epidemic.
    2) To rely on only one method is insane. This is just common sense.
    3) The assumption is that over time the disease may be come resistant to tamuflu and so other measures are needed (see pt. #2).
    4) Tamuflu failed when improper dosages were given.

    So to throw out tamuflu would be silly. It would be a good thing to have around, thought the only way to really find out is to have a major outbreak. Only then will we *really* know if it would work.

    No time for FUD, I must get on with life.

    --
    putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
  28. Why concentrate on bird flu.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    when the world is full of real problems like HIV, malaria, hunger, lack of fresh water and overall stupidity of the general population (which by default causes these kinds of mass hysteria movements which base on no real evidence of true threat..)

    Yes, yes, yes. People have died to bird flu, but the amount dead is comparable to the amount of children dying from hunger in like 2 minutes. So fuck the bird flu. It's just another scam to make someone really rich.

    1. Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. by brian0918 · · Score: 2

      "Yes, yes, yes. People have died to bird flu, but the amount dead is comparable to the amount of children dying from hunger in like 2 minutes. So fuck the bird flu. It's just another scam to make someone really rich."

      The threat isn't from the current form of bird flu. People only get that form if they live around chickens--swimming in chicken shit. The threat is if it mutates into a form that can be tranferred between humans. Care to inform yourself, so you don't sound so wrong? Watch this:

      http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2343414988 689203314

    2. Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Geezuz, Rummy owns stock in Tamiflu. If you DO the research, you will see that bird flu is a hoax. The information is out there.

    3. Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. by fabs64 · · Score: 1

      While all of those things are terrible and kill millions each year, and have done for a very very long time (with the exception of AIDS), NONE of them have the potential to wipe our 70 million people in the space of 6 months.

    4. Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. by fabs64 · · Score: 1

      Care to share the information?
      Also I think you'll find that "Tamiflu" is the name of a drug, not the name of a company.

    5. Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 1
      when the world is full of real problems like HIV,

      Primarily contacted by voluntary behavior that almost everyone in the entire world has been told to avoid.

      malaria,

      Previously controlled by DDT, before it was removed from the market by (later disproven) fear.

      hunger, lack of fresh water and overall stupidity of the general population

      Assuming you meant "ignorance" instead of "stupidity", all three of those are political issues. Feel free to suggest solutions that will satisfy all affected groups.

      Bird flu, on the other hand, has the potential to tear through high functioning societies. No amount of education, pesticide, food, or water can stop it. There's a reason people are afraid of the word "pandemic".

      --
      Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
    6. Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh. And I thought it only takes a maximum of few weeks for people to starve to death, assuming they get to drink as much water as they need.

    7. Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Back in 1981, shortly after reagan got into office, the CDC approach him requesting 25-50 million to start plans to stop the spread of a funny disease. It was not known what it was, but it was known that it was tied to gay bath houses. Reagan denied the funds even though top people were going in literally begging for them. Back then, less than a 1000 people had it. It could not have been stopped, but we could have been cut WAY back (perhaps would have stopped 80-90% of thise infected). Had we got aggresive in the early stages, the USA might have had only 1/2 to as much as 1/10 of the infections/loses that we now have. In addition, the USA pays out billions each year on the medicince for those infected as well as for research. Had we been willing to spend just 25 million on it, we would be saving billions each year.

      You speak of spending money wisely, and here is a disease process that once it gets lose can either cause wide spread panic or we can be read for. Keep in mind that the 1919 flu which killed millions, was the bird flu.

      Simple preperations can lower our costs and save loads of lives.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  29. Worse than greed by plopez · · Score: 1

    Extortion.

    --
    putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
    1. Re:Worse than greed by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Thanks, that's the word I was looking for. :)

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  30. I already know the cure! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's called "washing your motherfucking hands with hot water and soap", with a nice helping of "stay the fuck home from work when you get sick".

  31. Life after the prize by DirtEater · · Score: 1
    "who won a Nobel prize in 1990"

    It's nice to see someone still active and innovating after receiving a Nobel prize. The cash reward often results in the recipient living the easy life, as opposed to using it as a tool in pioneering further developments in their field.

    1. Re:Life after the prize by fishybell · · Score: 1
      Exactly what is your statement based on? Most people who receive Nobel Prizes receive them dozens of years after the the research (or whatever) that got them the prize was conducted. The Nobel Prize is about recognition, not some sort of sweepstakes type of thing.

      The kind of people who win a Nobel Prize are the exact kind of people who would never just "live the easy life" on the cash. I don't think many use the money to further their research; they usually continue utilizing the same grant money they originally used to fund their research. From personal experience, grant money is usually much larger and easier to get than Nobel Prize mulah.

      --
      ><));>
  32. Our *real* best defense is... by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 0

    ...probability, as in the very low probability that this bird flu will mutate into a form that is easily transferred between humans. Every person I know in the health field is fed up with the media's hyping of this thing and all the unecessary fearmongering.

  33. reading between lines by LinuxRulz · · Score: 2, Funny

    "...from highly explosive..."
    hmmm I see... They plan to eliminate bird flu by making every sick bird explode. clever!

  34. Bird Flu in China by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In a country of more than 1.6 billion, less than 100 died of bird flu.

    The pandemic here is hysteria and extortion.

    Some pharmaceutical companies are going to make a ton of money from our governments to prevent a phantom like flu. Ebola is more credible and yet we, for good reason, don't fear its outbreak. The bubonic plaque is still present and we don't fear its outbreak. Yet a flu that has the chance of killing 1 in 16 million people of a highly populated country like China, we are fearful of?

    Thank god we let this overshadow (human influenced) global warming...anyone get the connection?

  35. Don't worry, the gov't is prepared by ThinWhiteDuke · · Score: 2, Funny
    --

    It would be nice to be sure of anything the way some people are of everything.
  36. some chemistry clarification by bodrell · · Score: 3, Informative
    Roche's current production methods use the azide (which is not as hazardous as news articles would have you believe), but their own scientists have already come up with an azide-free route (though it still uses shikimic acid). See for yourself:
    J. Org. Chem. 2001, 66, 2044-2051.

    "New, Azide-Free Transformation of Epoxides into 1,2-Diamino Compounds: Synthesis of the Anti-Influenza Neuraminidase Inhibitor Oseltamivir Phosphate (Tamiflu)"

    Martin Karpf* and Rene Trussardi F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd., Pharmaceuticals Division, Non-Clinical Development, Chemical Process Research, Grenzacherstrasse 124, CH-4070, Basel, Switzerland
    Google scholar should show at least the first page.

    Corey's synthesis is pretty nifty. It just needs FDA approval and Roche has to adopt it. Given that Roche has had an azide-free route available since 2000, I'm thinking the process change is more than trivial. The Chemical and Engineering News article is much more informative, if you have access to that journal, and you like chemical structures.

    --
    Si la vida me da palo, yo la voy a soportar Si la vida me da palo, yo la voy a espabilar
    1. Re:some chemistry clarification by Hal-9001 · · Score: 1
      The Chemical and Engineering News article is much more informative, if you have access to that journal, and you like chemical structures.
      Might as well provide a link to the Chemical and Engineering News article for those who can access it... :-)
      --
      "It take 9 months to bear a child, no matter how many women you assign to the job."
  37. Don't believe the hype by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's true that pandemics hits us every now and then -- and birds have historically gotten such virus first -- but the virus that causes the bird flu (in the current mutation) does not transmit effectively enough between humans to become a pandemic. One reason might be that the bird flu doesn't make you sneeze, which is an effective means of spreading. Being preventive about a potential problem is very good, but I'd like to know how much Roche (principal marketer of tamiflu) stocks have risen during the media hype. You can see it for yourself at http://www.roche.com/home/investors.htm

  38. Better solution - universal vaccine by PIPBoy3000 · · Score: 3, Informative

    A new vaccine has been developed that targets the part of a flu virus that is conserved between mutations. Admittedly it might not be as effective as a targeted vacciene for a particular strain, but it would likely provide general protection against most flu viruses. So far it's been tested in ferrets (a good human model) and protects against H5N1 avian influenza.

  39. Great by nagora · · Score: 1
    Pity it hardly works at all on the current strain and probably won't work at all on the mutated form everyone's worried about.

    TWW

    --
    "Encyclopedia" is to "Wikipedia" what "Library" is to "Some people at a bus stop"
    1. Re:Great by cruachan · · Score: 1

      Er no, there is some evidence of resistance in some strains, but the majority seem to be susceptible to the drug. Resistance could be a problem, but that's by no means certain and the indication is rather against that if anything. Tamiflu has been used routinely now in Japan for several years against normal flu and while there has been occassional resistance arising, it's not been sustained in the wild suggesting that it's selected against in practice.

      The mechanism for drug resistance in viruses is rather different from that in bacteria, which is causing a lot of confusion in the general press.

  40. Re:Bird Flu Breakout = Marshal Law in the US by Kredal · · Score: 1

    I hope that in your blog, you managed to spell "Martial Law" correctly. Marshal law is a Good Thing(tm), because it means there are police around. (: Martial law is the anarchy type, that you probably meant.

    --
    Whoever stated that signature sizes should be limited to one hundred and twenty characters can just go ahead and kiss my
  41. disinters... sheesh by j3one · · Score: 0

    Perspective one...

    Hey all you disinters and critics need to stop carping on bird flue...
    This world would be allot better place if you would just start trusting the pharmaceutical companies!

    Perspective two...

    In the book of revelation, it says in the end day we will see an increase in disease and pestilence... This is only the beginning!

    Perspective three...

    mmmmm, pretty colors... !!

    Perspective four

    Pleease, I aint scared dawg!! ppfth.. bird flue... give me a break...

    Perspective Five

    What will be will be, as far as bird flu is concerned. I don't mind being moderately prepared, but at this point the best thing to do is not buy into hysteria, and keep an open mind and eyes aware... If I know anything about modern society, its that we will probably find a way to accidentally spread it farther or create a worse problem, in our frenzied state of emergeny. Best plan is to pay attention, but mostly ignore it untill theres more information.

  42. chemistry stuff by smellsofbikes · · Score: 1

    In case you don't want to go look at Wikipedia, azides are high-energy nitrogen-nitrogen bonds that are unstable, hard to make, and hard to handle. There are some (common) metals that can cause azides to form spontaneously combustible (aka hypergolic) compounds, which is a problem if your processing system contains impurities of that metal in the tubing or gaskets.
    In contrast, butadiene is a major industrial chemical used in making synthetic rubber, for which we have well-understood handling and manufacturing processes, and acrylates are also large-scale, moderately stable feedstocks for the plastics industry.

    --
    Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
  43. Re:Bird Flu Breakout = Marshal Law in the US by EntropyXP · · Score: 0

    no as in Marshall, law... damn... couldn't be funny if I tried today. DAMN! Yeah, Martial law... thanks. I'm sure George Bush spells it that way though!

    --
    "No one will really be free until nerd persecution ends."
  44. Some people may have genetic anomaly. . . by smooth+wombat · · Score: 1
    that predisposes them to getting the avian flu. From the article:

    Kida explained that people infected with H5N1 have a carbohydrate receptor on cells lining their throats. The receptor -- called alpha 2,3 -- is predominantly found in birds. Avian influenza viruses like to bind to this class of receptors to replicate and cause disease.

    . . . . .

    Human influenza viruses, however, prefer to bind to another receptor called alpha 2,6, which is dominant in humans.

    Kida is now trying to look for H5N1 survivors in Vietnam and Thailand to verify his theory, and if it proves to be true, it could mean that most people simply cannot catch H5N1 easily -- unless the virus mutates.

    --
    We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
  45. Bird flu or no bird flu by fabs64 · · Score: 1

    Whether the H5N1 thing is hype or not, someone discovering easier ways to synthesise anti-viral drugs is a Good Thing.

    Eventually there IS going to be another flu pandemic, the way the virus mutates and our global society assure us of it, the real question is is it going to kill millions of people or just give everyone a lousy week of work. ;-)

  46. Contagion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    Seriously, where do people even pick this up?
    It's probably one of those viral memes which propagates due to an increase in perceived erudition of the victim.
  47. So AIDS is the real vaccine? Or Bird-Flu's cure? by Yez70 · · Score: 1

    Yea, I know this sounds sick, I know I'm rambling, but think about it...
    First off, birdflu is a remote possibilty, especially on a pandemic level. It is possible still. We have the fear factor implanted. Fear always equals profit.
     
    AIDS has the fear factor too, but not enough 'wealthy' people get AIDS anymore, so it's not as profitable as it used to be.
     
    Ok, so Tamiflu hasn't been proven tpo have worked as a cure successfully. 2 in 14 people living doesn't sound much better than just dealing with the bird flu without Tamiflu. Tamiflu is not being distributed as a vaccine, nor has it been proven to work as a vaccine. The makers of Tamiflu held out as long as they could to keep profits up, and will rake in even more dough now that they can make it cheaper. Our government(s) support the notion of Tamiflu as our best defense at the moment.
     
    Think any lobbyists had an influence on this?
     
    Treating AIDS was even more profitable though, and if you have AIDS you may fare better with bird flu than the average victim. I bet the pharmaceutical companies have considered it too - for the 'shareholders' of course. BAH.
     
    Anyway, how long before we see them come up with the idea of treating AIDS with bird flu. They'll probably figure out a way and place to test it - get some moderate success - convince the public via it's corrupt politicians it's fiarly failsafe and make it happen. Treatment immunity will be granted swiftly. BOOM. The AIDS cure (aka birdflu derivitive) will mysteriously mutate and spread, passing bird-flu worldwide in a matter of months.
     
    The billions of dollars in Tamiflu stockpiles will be useless and the public will demand a solution, any solution.
     
    A 'Get AIDS Quick' solution will of course be ready for mass consumption, and most likely for free. The drug pushing son-of-a...... er 'pharmaceutical companies' will be happy to give you AIDS free in order to get you hooked on the lifetime of AIDS cocktails, won't they?
     
    It's always about PROFIT.

  48. Mortality rates by tjwhaynes · · Score: 4, Insightful
    For example, the current virus has about a 50% mortality rate. It is very like when that when it mutates, this mortality rate will go down.

    I have problems with these mortality figures. It's very easy to determine who died from bird flu - you have a body, death certificate, medical records, etc. It is NOT easy to work out who has had the bird flu and has survived in the general populace - not all sick people will have seen a doctor and some may not even have developed symptoms. Without doing a massive study looking for bird-flu antibodies, the mortality figures are almost certainly overblown, maybe by orders of magnitude. This applies whether we are talking about the impact on birds or on humans.

    Cheers,
    Toby Haynes

    --
    Anything I post is strictly my own thoughts and doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the opinions of IBM.
    1. Re:Mortality rates by Pedrito · · Score: 1

      I have problems with these mortality figures.

      I disagree. There are exactly 206 confirmed cases of bird flu. Of those 206, 113 have died, a 55% mortality rate.

      Are you saying there are a lot of people who might have gotten it and are fine? I seriously doubt it. Not a lot of people got Spanish flu and didn't have pretty severe symptoms. Anyone who gets H5N1 is going to end up in a hospital or dead if they don't.

      Look, you can only use statistics for the cases you know about. So yeah, some people may have gotten it and been asymptomatic. I suspect the odds of that are exceedingly slim. The virus is simply too virulent.

      The truth is, there aren't enough cases yet to determine an exact mortality. But the truth is also that this virus is killing a good percentage of the people who get it and if you're not worried about it, you simply don't really understand the nature of the problem.

    2. Re:Mortality rates by plague3106 · · Score: 1

      There are exactly 206 confirmed cases of bird flu.

      Which is why I can't understand why this virus is even being talked about. Its pretty rare to catch it in the first place. But the media needs to create stories now to sell papers and ads..

    3. Re:Mortality rates by JDevers · · Score: 1

      Right now the virus has half of what it needs to become a pandemic killer, it is highly lethal. Now the contagious half has to be filled. This alone means that this thing should be getting plenty of air time.

      To put it in another perspective, a highly contagious form of the virus that was almost completely non-fatal would still be getting HUGE publicity because nearly everyone would be catching a virus that is as little as a couple nucleic acids from being a pandemic with a high fatality rate.

      It is important to note that even if this was NOT contagious to humans, it would still be extremely important for us simply because of it's impact on the poultry industry. Also, the fact that the virus is spreading like wildfire through the avian population means that absolutely huge numbers of the virus are present, massively magnifying the chances of that random mutation happening.

      This is important stuff, I would say if anything it isn't getting ENOUGH coverage. When I can turn on CNN and they talk about Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes' child for twenty minutes and then a possible pandemic that could kill millions of people for three minutes, I think I know which story got too much air time. It is important to note that this may be the first time that mankind has been able to foresee a pandemic and actually prepare for it, while you would say that the ordinary citizen can't exactly do anything about it you would be wrong. The more people are worried about it, the easier it will be for scientists working in this area to get funding, the more funding the more scientists, and the better the chances of having as much ready as possible when this DOES become THE news.

    4. Re:Mortality rates by plague3106 · · Score: 1

      Your argument is pretty weak. So what if it 'is halfway there?' The mutation which makes it lethal may also revert it back to being non contagious to humans.

      Not only that, but this mutant version needs to actually find its way back to a human. For all we know, the bird carrying this version may drop dead in the middle of a forest, hundreds of miles from the nearest human.

      There's never been a single disease that even came close to wiping out all of ANY species on this planet... why would THIS flu have that ability?

      Go back in history (not even that far).. they told us the same thing about SARS, ebola and a host of other diseases. The one that did actually start spreading, HIV, rightly created a lot of fear. But as far as bird flu goes, you might as well start worrying that a meteor will fall on your head.

    5. Re:Mortality rates by Pedrito · · Score: 1

      Your argument is pretty weak. So what if it 'is halfway there?' The mutation which makes it lethal may also revert it back to being non contagious to humans.

      You're clearly very ignorant about virology, so let me educate you: All it takes is for someone with the Avian flu to contract the regular flu at the same time. If they are infected by both flus at the same time, the RNA for the two strains will cross and there can be a simple result of a mostly human strain version of the virus picking up the deadly aspect of the Avian flu.

      That is where the danger lies. So the fact that humans are getting it at all makes it monumentally dangerous. Will it wipe out the species? Very unlikely. Will it kill hundreds of millions? Any mutation even 1/5 as deadly as this strain will. It could possibly kill more than a billion people. 1 out of every 6 people on the planet gone. How many members of your family would that be? And forget about the impact on peoples lives. The panic, the mourning, the diseases from bodies laying waste all over the world, there's also the economic impact that would have. 1 out of every 6 workers dead. No country, no family, would be untouched by the devastation that would leave behind.

      That's the concern. It's not just another flu pandemic, it's about the worst case of a flu strain you could imagine. That's why people are making a big deal about it.

    6. Re:Mortality rates by plague3106 · · Score: 1

      You're clearly very ignorant about virology, so let me educate you: All it takes is for someone with the Avian flu to contract the regular flu at the same time. If they are infected by both flus at the same time, the RNA for the two strains will cross and there can be a simple result of a mostly human strain version of the virus picking up the deadly aspect of the Avian flu.

      Care to cite your credintals and source please? Also, could you tell us how likely it is that you would have BOTH versions of the flu at the same time? Seems to me that would be pretty small.

      That is where the danger lies. So the fact that humans are getting it at all makes it monumentally dangerous. Will it wipe out the species? Very unlikely. Will it kill hundreds of millions? Any mutation even 1/5 as deadly as this strain will. It could possibly kill more than a billion people. 1 out of every 6 people on the planet gone. How many members of your family would that be? And forget about the impact on peoples lives. The panic, the mourning, the diseases from bodies laying waste all over the world, there's also the economic impact that would have. 1 out of every 6 workers dead. No country, no family, would be untouched by the devastation that would leave behind.

      This is all guessing on your part. You're describing scenes from the black death, where 1) we didn't really have much of a clue about germs and viruses and 2) you couldn't quickly rely information about an outbreak and 3) didn't have any procedures in place should an outbreak occur. As always, you'll have the highest incidents in poorer countries, while more wealthy ones should be able to contain everything pretty quickly.

      Thousands of people are not going to drop down walking down the street and emergency workers will be removing bodies and disposing of them properly to help contain an outbreak (and they'll be protected in their biosuits too).

      All your doing is spreading fear; please, tell me, what happened with SARS, ebola, killer bees and a host of other things that were supposed to bring the destruction you describe? I'll answer; NOTHING.

    7. Re:Mortality rates by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Plus, IIRC, a decent statistical sample has to be around 1000 as a barest minmum (and I'd suggest that if you're calculating mortality rates for potential endemics, you might want a large sample (or not, as the case may be))... How many people have been diagnosed (even post-mortem) with the H5N1 strain of avian flu - regardless of whether they lived or died?

    8. Re:Mortality rates by tjwhaynes · · Score: 1
      I have problems with these mortality figures.

      I disagree. There are exactly 206 confirmed cases of bird flu. Of those 206, 113 have died, a 55% mortality rate.

      Precisely. 206 confirmed cases. 113 dead. Those are the hard facts. The problem is that we don't know what the actual population of bird flu infections is. All we have are the most obvious and easy-to-collect figures - therefore saying that 1/2 of those who catch bird flu will die is totally bogus. I taught statistics and experimental methods at University - one of the issues that students really struggled with was the issue of accurate and appropriate sampling of a population. When dealing with colds, viruses, diseases, the medical profession only sees the worst cases. People with a sniffle don't normally go to a doctor. People who are delirious, spouting blood or dead will almost certainly see a medical professional.

      The only way to get an unbiased indication is to actually go out and measure something in the field that is a good indicator of bird flu. Antibodies are the thing I would go out and look for in the general population. This would require actually going door to door and trying to get as many people as possible to give blood samples for testing. It is not appropriate simply to test everyone who turns up at the doctor's for precisely the reasons in the paragraph above. You don't have to measure everyone but you do have to sample enough people over the appropriate geographical region to get a reasonably balanced sample.

      Cheers,
      Toby Haynes

      --
      Anything I post is strictly my own thoughts and doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the opinions of IBM.
    9. Re:Mortality rates by Pedrito · · Score: 1

      Also, could you tell us how likely it is that you would have BOTH versions of the flu at the same time? Seems to me that would be pretty small.

      You're not getting it. It only takes one person with Avian flu to get the the regular flu as well, and you've got a pandemic. Period. So how unlikely is it for someone with Avian flu, who's immune system is already seriously compromised to get the regular flue as well? Not terribly unlikely.

      You see, when you get the Avian flu, you're immune system isn't what saves you, it's what kills you. That's why in flu pandemics, it's the young healthy people who tend to die. Your body starts sending a massive immune response that destroys lung tissue. While your lungs are in this perilously compromised state, you are far more vulnerable to any other illness, so simply exposure to human flu is just about a guarantee that you'll get it.

      There are so many sources to site, jesus man, learn to use Google. Start of at Wikipedia. Look up Asian flu, Hong Kong Flu, Spanish Flu, H5N1 flu. Check their references. Check here, and here, and here.

      And frankly, if you can't figure it out yourself from that stuff, then you're just never going to get it and there's no point in me wasting my time trying to explain it to you. You'll just figure it out when your friends and family start dropping dead left and right, if you don't go first.

    10. Re:Mortality rates by Pedrito · · Score: 1

      Actually, in China, India, and Indonesia, at least, they are going door-to-door looking for anyone with flu-like symptoms. In the meantime, the flu is beginning to spread to even more types of animals, animals that were previously immune.

      Look, I'm not trying to say the sky is falling. All I'm saying is that everyone in medicine is having a shit about this because this virus has the most potential of one we've seen in years to be absolutely devastating beyond any of the pandemics in the past century. You can sit there and deny it's as big a problem as they say, but the simple fact is, it only takes the mutation in one person to make a pandemic. After it begins, there's an estimated 30 days to isolate all the infected people. If you don't get them all by then, then that's all she wrote.

      The thing is, everyone who's a friend or family member of someone who's had it, has been tested. They're either not infected and fine, or they're infected and in the hospital. There have been no signs that anyone has a mild case of it. Otherwise you would have a lot of friends and family who are getting by just fine. That's simply not the case. So I think you're fooling yourself if you don't think this is a serious problem.

    11. Re:Mortality rates by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "the flu is beginning to spread to even more types of animals, animals that were previously immune."

      How do we know they were previously immune?

      "Everyone in medicine is having a shit about this because this virus has the most potential of one we've seen in years to be absolutely devastating beyond any of the pandemics in the past century"

      They said exactly the same about Ebola, which is also a virus, and the two known human-infecting strains have a 30% and 70% mortality rate respectively. There was even an airborne strain (Ebola Reston) that was more lethal still, but affected only monkeys.

      However, like bird flu, Ebola has remained very difficult to catch, and the many, many mutations that have taken place over its much longer tenure in the human attention space haven't produced the global pandemic that so many alarmists were predicting in the 1980s (and that resulted in a number of bad movies and TV specials).

      Will there be a global pandemic in the future that kills millions? Yes, because there have been global pandemics in the past that killed millions, and we travel around a lot more nowadays, so whetever appears will end up spreading very quickly indeed. However, it's likely that such a pandemic will be something entirely new that manifests itself without warning, and spreads to huge numbers of people before the alarmists even realise what's happening.

      "it only takes the mutation in one person to make a pandemic"

      Yes, but it has to be a very specific mutation that (a) changes the infection vector in such a way as to increase risk to humans, and (b) maintains a fair degree of lethality. As we've already seen with Ebola, the near genetically identical Reston strain became airborne and more lethal, but ended up being very species-specific in the process. Mutations are random, and there's actually a greater chance of viruses that already infect humans excellently (e.g. the many, many types of colds and human flu) mutating into a more lethal strain than bird flu becoming a terifying airborne pathogen for humans.

      "I think you're fooling yourself if you don't think this is a serious problem."

      No, he isn't. Bird flu has killed a hundred people world-wide in nearly four years, whereas ordinary flu kills around 5,000 a year in the US alone, i.e. 20,000 Americans will have died of ordinary flu in the same period that bird flu has killed a hundred _globally_; clearly, ordinary flu is a more serious problem worldwide by several orders of magnitude, yet nobody seems to be panicking about that. This is therefore the same alarmist "impending pandemic" poppycock that we saw with SARS and Ebola, and will no doubt see again with several other non-events until we actually do get hit by something that none of the alarmists foresaw, by which time huge sums of money will have been wasted stockpiling what amounts to useless snake oil against threats that don't materialise.

  49. ABS by tinkerghost · · Score: 1

    Anybody else notice that ABS is 'Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene' & this drug can be made from 'acrylate and butadiene'. I don't want recycled lego's being shoved up my arm thank you very much.

    1. Re:ABS by Senzei · · Score: 1
      I don't want recycled lego's being shoved up my arm thank you very much.

      So you'd rather die of a pandemic bird flu? Look I understand the sentiment here, and for most things less important than "stop something that will kill me" I agree with it, but in this case I would choose "relatively safe injection of petrochemical compounds" over "horrible flu-induced death".

      --
      Slashdot: Where anecdotes and generalizations can be freely substituted for facts, logic, or intelligence
    2. Re:ABS by cruachan · · Score: 1

      By which logic you shouldn't put salt on your food, it being a combination of a posionous gas and a metal that reacts explosively with water

  50. It's always what you don't anticipate... by Dzimas · · Score: 2, Interesting
    I wonder what the side-effects of injecting acrylate and butadiene into a few million people would be. My suspicion is that there will be a low but non-zero reaction rate. And even 0.01% of 100,000,000 people adds up to a hundred thousand individuals sickened by a protective measure that might prove ineffectual. It also seems that there's a genetic factor at play with bird flu susceptibility - some infected families were hit harder as a group than others who caught the same illness at the same time and place.

    If I try on my tinfoil hat for a moment, it seems that the only winner in a Tamiflu stockpiling situation will be the manufacturer. We can be almost certain that the "next big pandemic" will blind side us. That is, after all, the nature of pandemics. It'll be a mutated form of *something*, probably something quite benign.

    1. Re:It's always what you don't anticipate... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "And even 0.01% of 100,000,000 people adds up to a hundred thousand individuals sickened by a protective measure that might prove ineffectual"

      1% of 100 million is 100,000. The .01% from your example would actually be 1% of that 1%, or 100 just individuals. The thing you'd actually want to worry about is that the effective rate of the drug would be less than the rate of (fatal) side effects. If the drug had an effective rate (above that of fatal side effects) of less than 5%, it (ideally) wouldn't pass statistical testing to be considered effective, and wouldn't be used.

  51. Non-News by nahdude812 · · Score: 1

    There are several companies which have been developing H5N1 (bird flu) vaccine for a while. The (unnamed) company I work for is one. We actually have a massive stockpile of the stuff, but there are a couple of problems with developing H5N1 vaccine at this stage of its pandemic (FYI, it's Pandemic Stage 4, out of 6 possible stages, with 6 being a global catastrophe).

    First, the H5N1 virus we know today is not a serious threat to humans. In order to progress to Pandemic 5, it must mutate so that it is contagious human-to-human. That is the criteria for stage 5. It might no longer even be H5N1 (these represent the proteins which are present of the surface of the virus, by the way). With that mutation comes the uncertainty of whether current H5N1 vaccines will have reduced, or even zero efficacy against the new virus.

    Further, there is no good way to test even current H5N1 vaccines in humans. We know they do a decent good job of protecting birds and livestock, but that doesn't mean that they are really able to protect humans. I don't see many people signing up for a clinical trial to be exposed to a virus that, if the clinical trial is unsuccessful, would kill the majority of the people in the trial (people who are otherwise healthy).

    We honestly can only hope that what we have today will be both effective in humans, and also effective against the mutated virus that represents stage 5.

    The problem is not producing enough vaccine, we can mass produce it now. This company having some new approach is nothing more than a press release stating that they caught up with the rest of the vaccine industry.

    1. Re:Non-News by fabs64 · · Score: 1

      Well you're the chemist so correct me if I'm wrong here, but i didn't think Tamiflu was a vaccine?

    2. Re:Non-News by nahdude812 · · Score: 1

      You're right, maybe I'm too close to this situation =). I glanced at the article and assumed vaccine. We don't deal with antivirals, so I was not thinking along the right lines.

  52. Bird Flu is a real threat. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    In my college years as a Microbiologist, my teachers always ranted and raved about how bad pandemics were.
    I didnt fear anything until I saw the statistics of one of the pandemics..

    Here is a link from the cdc - about the 1918 Avian Flu Pandemic
    http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.ht m

    "The "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, which caused 50 million deaths worldwide.."

    Hundreds of millions were infected and millions died... Bird Flu is a real threat.

  53. Why the Media attention on Bird Flu by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    Lets look at the kill score shall we?
    Smoking killed 71 million since 1930
    Need new Victims err customers fast!, old news
    Aids 11.7 Million and rising pretty fast
    Gays and drug adicts and poor people, old news! No longer newsworthy.
    Malaria 1.5 - 3 million people a year, mostly children Poor people, and worse, they don't vote or in other countries, and really old news
    Normal Influenza, a few hundred K a year. Boring, needs a snappy name.. BEAR FLU?
    Eaten by Tigers in India 34,075. Actually between 1875-1912, extremely old news.
    SARS - A few hundred, maybe thousands Good name, Asian origin, involves eating Civets!
    BIRD FLU - 50 to a few hundred.
    Great name, Experts help media frenzy. Cheap news. Great go for it!

    The Media won't get things in perspective because they are only interested in new scare stories. If 50 million people died of bird flu in the next couple of years (don't worry, they WON'T!). The media would STILL move onto the next scare story once it became tired old news.

    1. Re:Why the Media attention on Bird Flu by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 1
      Lets look at the kill score shall we?

      Sure! And remember that at one time cigarettes didn't kill you, and only gay people got AIDS.

      Today, only birds can transmit bird flu. As the disease and our understanding of it evolve, there's a very strong possibility that this will change.

      --
      Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
    2. Re:Why the Media attention on Bird Flu by dwain_dibbley · · Score: 1

      Lasser fever could combine with Athletes foot to develop a deadly plague! How many what if's are there. Stick to the facts and leave Clairvoyancy for Weirdos. The fact is that Bird flu does not easily transfer from Human to Human. The expert Viroligists rightly have to investigate a worst case synario. I however do not.

  54. Did you read TFA? by expro · · Score: 1

    As I read it, he was generous with the new production proceedure, because anyone using it already owed royalties.

  55. No altruism I can detect. by expro · · Score: 1

    As I read the article, he was generous with the new production proceedure, because anyone using it already owed royalties.

    1. Re:No altruism I can detect. by Bowling+Moses · · Score: 1

      Nothing required him to put his synthesis in the public domain. For taking the synthesis of a drug like Tamilflu from a small batch process with expensive starting materials to mass production with cheap bulk commodity chemicals a drug manufacturer would be willing to shell out millions.

  56. Err.... by brian0918 · · Score: 1

    Nobody is claiming the current virus is the actual threat to humans. The actual threat comes if/when this virus mutates into a form that can be transferred between humans. Then you're talking about almost a hundred million possible deaths....

  57. Low effectiveness might be all we need by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 1

    Suppose a medicated person is sick for less time and sheds fewer virus particles.

    Suppose tamiflu has almost no effect, such that an infected person infects 0.99 others if treated with tamiflu and 1.01 others without it. In one case the epidemic dies out, in the other case it spreads.

    Using a more realistic illustration, the difference between 1.4 and 1.6 is a difference that could buy time and spread out the load on hospitals.

  58. Tamiflu may be ineffective... by gg3po · · Score: 1

    ...but it's also been shown to be extremely profitable.

    --
    ---
  59. Uhhh... no. by mistergin.net · · Score: 1

    And if your idea for fighting bird flu is with chicken soup, we truly are screwed.

    That would just be stupid.

    What do you take me for, a moron?

    I'll be fighting the bird flu with bird soup thank you very much!

    *mumbles something about crazy liberals*

    --
    Less Talk. More Stab.
  60. The mod system needs modification by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    MOdding down posts as overrrated when they haven't even been rated as anything else is just a way for the a-holes to suppress opinion.

  61. Pandemic cycles by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 1

    >Sooner or later there WILL be another flu with the ability to kill millions.

    Virologists estimate that these come in ~50 year cycles as the people with immunity die of old age and herd immunity disappears.

    They're unsure whether H5N1 is going to be the one that breaks loose or whether it will be a later one, but we are overdue.

  62. Oil by darkshadow · · Score: 1

    Tamiflu is oil! That's why we invaded Iraq!

    --
    -Darkshadow (There was a thing called Heaven; but all the same they used to drink enormous quantities of alcohol.)
  63. Corey? Read this. by paiute · · Score: 1
    --
    If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
  64. Don't Worry by Ranger · · Score: 1

    Even if Tamiflu becomes cheap and widely available, it'll probably suffer the same fate as Amantadine. It is another anti-viral medication. Thanks to the Chinese feeding it to their chickens, it's useless against bird-flu.

    I'd like to know at what rate is H5N1 evolving and when it could mutate into a form transmissable by humans? I'm assuming it's a matter of time before it happens not a question of if.

    --
    "You'll get nothing, and you'll like it!"
    1. Re:Don't Worry by Forbman · · Score: 1

      Probably no faster than all the other different strains that have made there way around the world each year for quite some time now.

      Yes, a potentially virulent strain against, or one more easily transmissible between, humans could spontaneously appear in the next year or two, but I'm guessing that the greatest source of evolutionary pressure on influenza virus is when it's still amongst the occupants of the pig pens and rice paddies of southeast Asia, not the respiratory tracts of migratory waterfowl.

  65. Bird Flu Shows up where Pig Flu was 30 yrs ago by Bushido+Hacks · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    Doesn't anyone think this is a strange conicidence that Donald Rumsfield who was Health and Human Services Secretary during the Gerald Ford Adminstration was given a medal for controling the outbreak of the Swine Flu in 1976 in Burlington County, NJ?

    Does anyone think that it is a strange conicidences that Donald Rumsfield is now the Defense Secretary during the GW Bush Adminstration and is going to make a winfall profit from the sale of Tamiflu now that Avian Flu has appeared in neighborhing Camden County, NJ?

    Avian Flu is American Bioterrorism manufactured by the government of United States of America so that a few rich WASPs can get away with murder and make a profit from it.

    I am level headed by the way. This is not some paranoia rant from some loony wearing a tin-foil hat, it is the honest to God awful truth. Search reliable internet sources!

    --
    The Rapture is NOT an exit strategy.
    1. Re:Bird Flu Shows up where Pig Flu was 30 yrs ago by Poohsticks · · Score: 1
      I'm no paranoid delusional either, but I think there may be some truth in the parent.

      I mean honestly, collectively as a species were always a short mutation hop away from some pandemic. Why the repeated pressing on the panic button by the media? My personal conclusion is ... follow the money trail.

      Q? Who has the responsibility for pandemic prepardness?

      A/ Homeland Security

      Q? What is on that department's agenda?

      A/ Establish power, control, and continued influence.

      Q? What is one of the best ways to achieve these goals?

      A/ Jump on everyone's fears and play to them.

      Q? What's the best way to jump on everyone's fears?

      A/ Get the media to repeatedly blast out these reports.

      As everyone is fond of pointing out:

      1. Identify panic button

      2. Press it!

      3. Tell everyone you can fix it! If you get a bigger budget (of course).

      4. Profit!!

      --
      "The story so far: In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been wide
    2. Re:Bird Flu Shows up where Pig Flu was 30 yrs ago by Bushido+Hacks · · Score: 1

      Exactly. The Virus is not Avian Flu, it is Television, The media, and those who abuse the first ammendment.

      We are forbidden from learning these things because they are of the interest of a select few.

      We are being punished for using a right that we do have can't because our ideas are not as important as another person.

      "All Animals are Equal, except some are more equal than others." --George Orwell Animal Farm

      --
      The Rapture is NOT an exit strategy.
    3. Re:Bird Flu Shows up where Pig Flu was 30 yrs ago by Forbman · · Score: 1

      Oh, no different than Admiral Crowe (former Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, during the Reign of Reagan), who was on the board of that funky company that used to be the sole source provider of Anthrax vaccine but couldn't run itself to the satisfaction of the FDA and went bankrupt a couple of times, including being in bankruptcy and on the FDA's shitlist during the buildup of the First Iraqi Turkey Shoot.

  66. well... by dibblda · · Score: 1

    Corey pretty much is a self aggrandizing douchebag. Has had a couple suicides in his lab, doesn't feel bad about it. Claims to get 99% yields in some of his chemical reactions, after purification (next to impossible). Has done some brilliant things despite that though. Note to some readers...acrylate and butadiene reacted together to form a new chemical compound are not going to have the same properties as the starting materials. Most of our drugs/plastics use petroluem feed stock at some point in their production. It'll be lot's of fun when we run out of oil!

    1. Re:well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It'll be lot's of fun when we run out of oil!

      Actually then we will get our hydrocarbons from other sources, such as coal and plant material. Science has advanced far enough that there is a substitute for most anything we get from oil. It's that oil is the most convenient and cheapest.

      That's why some people are saying higher oil prices are a good thing, forcing us to move to renewable sources.

    2. Re:well... by dibblda · · Score: 1

      Agreed, but it will probably not be available at our current consumption levels and further processing will be required.... The smartest use of oil would be as raw material, not as something that you burn in your car. A little bit more carbon neutral as well when you make a plastic from it, assuming you recycle it isn't that bad for the environment.

    3. Re:well... by Forbman · · Score: 1

      Nah, we'll just go back to extracting them from coal tar.

  67. MOD PARENT UP by mikeisme77 · · Score: 1

    This is a very good and well thought out response. Fairly convincing as well (sources would have been nice, but are not necessary since the facts you cited have been pointed out in other posts and I've heard them before). However, I still don't think it will be as large of a disaster as the media predicts. Even if 100 million people die (world wide), that's still a small fraction of the world population of over 6 Billion. Is it tragic? Yes. Will it be a huge catastrophe to the country/world/human population? I don't think so. Should we prepare for it? Of course! I don't think researchers and such should ignore the situation. I just don't think the general populous needs to freak out about it (at least not yet). Will I blame the government if they aren't prepared for this? No. I didn't blame them for not being prepared for Hurricane Katrina, so why would I blame them for this? They're response was a bit half-assed, but there's only so much they could have done (doesn't matter if it would have been a Democrat or Liberterian or whoever else in the White House--there are limitations to what our bloated government can do). Disasters happen and they're unpredicatble (to a degree), so why point the finger of blame? Blame is just an excuse to get out of doing things to fix things yourself.

    1. Re:MOD PARENT UP by Vornzog · · Score: 1
      Hey mikeisme77,

      This is a very good and well thought out response. Fairly convincing as well (sources would have been nice, but are not necessary since the facts you cited have been pointed out in other posts and I've heard them before).

      Sorry about the lack of sources. I research flu, so most of my sources are primary literature. Hard to site on slashdot. Most of what the media reports is actually fairly accurate on this topic - they mostly get it right. What you read in the news reflects most of what I read in the literature. My comment about H7N7 is one of the few pieces of the post that you might not have heard before.

      However, I still don't think it will be as large of a disaster as the media predicts. Even if 100 million people die (world wide), that's still a small fraction of the world population of over 6 Billion. Is it tragic? Yes. Will it be a huge catastrophe to the country/world/human population? I don't think so. Should we prepare for it? Of course!

      One person out of every 60 dies, and that's not a huge catastrophe? Keep in mind that it may have been as high as 100 million in 1918, but the world's population was quite a bit lower then. Even on the low end, 20 million would have been a significant fraction of the world's population.

      If this thing hits, think about all the effects it will have. Lots of people will die. Are the bodies still infectious after they are dead? What do you do with that many dead bodies? Think of all the people who might live through it, but will get very sick. Do we have enough health care infrastructure to handle even a fraction of those people? To prevent infecting any more people than necessary, the whole world will shut down. No traffic in or out of your favorite city/state/nation. Do you have enough food? What about oil/gas reserves?

      Not to mention anything else that might occur at the same time. If you devote all of your emergency response energy to dealing with flu, and a fire breaks out, can you get it put out before it spreads? Or a bad blizzard or tornado or whatever hits. These things happen all the time - we deal with them, clean up the aftermath, and move on. But put an event like that in the context of a pandemic that consumes your emergency resources, and see how bad it gets.

      If you are pessimestic about how bad it could get, and it turns out not to be that bad, you got lucky. If you underestimate the impact, a whole lot more people die.

      I don't think researchers and such should ignore the situation. I just don't think the general populous needs to freak out about it (at least not yet). Will I blame the government if they aren't prepared for this? No. I didn't blame them for not being prepared for Hurricane Katrina, so why would I blame them for this? They're response was a bit half-assed, but there's only so much they could have done (doesn't matter if it would have been a Democrat or Liberterian or whoever else in the White House--there are limitations to what our bloated government can do). Disasters happen and they're unpredicatble (to a degree), so why point the finger of blame? Blame is just an excuse to get out of doing things to fix things yourself.

      You are right here - the general populous can't do anything about it at this point. Whipping everyone into a panic is sensationalist media at it's finest, and it sells. On the flip side though, I'd rather know what the dangers are. I just take everything in I hear from the media cum granulo salis.

      If you've managed to avoid laying blame for Katrina, you've done better than most. But it would be much, much worse in a pandemic. We know that it's going to happen again at some point. We have much better world wide survelience, so we will probably have a warning well before it comes (H5N1 first crossed into humans in 1997 - you won't get a better warning then that). We know what the impact could be, because we

      --

      -V-

      Who can decide a priori? Nobody.
      -Sartre

  68. Burning our medicine? by Valdrax · · Score: 1

    Did anyone else read that and have the reaction, "Maybe we shouldn't be burning our limited supply of ingredients for life-saving medicines?"

    --
    If it's for-profit but free, you're not the customer -- you're the product (e.g., the Slashdot Beta's "audience").
  69. great, I will be spared from bird flu just so I by museumpeace · · Score: 1
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    SLASHDOT: news for people who can't concentrate on work or have no life at all and got tired of yelling back at the TV.
  70. Best defense against bird-flu? by joshv · · Score: 1

    Stop paying attention to hysterical news reports about bird-flu.

  71. How About A Big Cold Serving of STFU! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Are you done? Watch this:

    Oh! Well! If Charlie Rose and his six experts say so then it must be so. We are all doomed. brian0918 I suggest you kill yourself to avoid the suffering that Charlie Rose says you will endure.

    Me? I see that Influenza kills 20,000 people in the US per year! But, Charlie Rose et al don't seem too concerned about that rather high death rate. Meanwhile, back in the real world bird flu may (MAY) be blamed for 50 human deaths total. Despite this astonishingly low number Charlie Rose, news media in general and you carry on about the inescapable bird flu pandemic that is 'certain to kill us all'. Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

    IF and when bird flu makes it onto this list then I will concede to you and Charlie Rose. Until such time, your invited to have a big cold serving of STFU!!!

    1. Re:How About A Big Cold Serving of STFU! by brian0918 · · Score: 1

      You seriously have no understanding of the situation. I suggest you actually watch the video I linked to. Go ahead, spend the 99 cents. It'll stop you sounding like an idiot.

      "Despite this astonishingly low number Charlie Rose, news media in general and you carry on about the inescapable bird flu pandemic that is 'certain to kill us all'. Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!"

      The threat is not from the current form of bird flu. The threat is if/when bird flu mutates into a form that can be transmitted between humans. Then we're looking at devastation, unless we prepare ourselves. The 50-100 people who got it now don't have a human-to-human strain, so it doesn't matter. They are just unfortunate to have to come into contact with a lot of birds, for whatever reason. But, feel free to keep quoting this low number as if it has anything to do with the actual threat.

  72. Discovered? by Whumpsnatz · · Score: 1

    "Bird Flu Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered"

    Er, no, it was invented. Unless you think that all knowledge is lurking out in in the magicsphere just waiting for someone to stumble over it. In which case, can we eliminate the patent office, please?

  73. Killing bird flu? Not a problem. by RabidTrucker · · Score: 1
    Take 1,000 mg of Clinoril and you'll kill it. You'll kill a few other things too, like a few brain cells from the ACID BATH. But surely the local steeet corner vendor oops drug store pharmacy will give you all you want of Xanax or something. It isn't so bad. Throw in some 1200 mg of Lithium Carbonate per day.

    You guys must think the flu is SUPERMAN. Hell, I'm Superman. My doctors gave me all that stuff and I haven't been sick from a cold or flu for 16 YEARS. I did get a nasty bronchitis 3 months ago but come to find out they were also overdosing me on thyroid medicine.

    THAT I DO NOT RECOMMEND. It makes your allergies stronger well, no that isn't quite right. It makes your Immune System reaction to allergic substances much stronger. Closes your nostrils, your bronchial tubes somewhat. Anyway, Clinoril or 5-10 aspirin take your pick. The acid content burns up the flu. Vitamin C does a similar acid bath on bloodstream viruses.

    Anyhow it beats heck out of doing nothing waiting for the undertaker.

  74. Do you really believe it cures birds flu? by Mondor · · Score: 1

    The major physician of Russia, the one who forbidden the import of Georgian wines because of "too much" pesticides it contains, said that Tamiflu does not really cure the birds flu. At least no better than anything else. He also argued that medical corporations goes too far in advertising "cures" to serious diseases like birds flu or AIDS, just to earn more money.

    Taking into account that Tamiflu costs about 1000% more than thing like Paracetamolum (which doesn't cure anything either, but advertised as "a cure for flu") I can believe him.