Oh sure. I'd been coding for 32 years at that point, knew multiple languages and I understood the benefits of refactoring code and incremental improvement. Because of Sox requirements management only went for high cost, higher risk features with higher payoffs. This often resulted in programming resources literally sitting around doing nothing rather than making small incremental fixes and improvements which on an annual basis would greatly exceed the approved changes.
I was promoted into management after that and supported small changes and we benefited from the few I managed to get approved.
So sure- it frustrated me that a 24% to 36% annual improvement was blocked.
Instead of getting a total 50%+ annual improvement we only got three to four 5% improvements (and of course new features).
Being blocked from doing small fixes by Sarbanes-Oxley and management. But really Sarbanes Oxley.
Prior to SOX, I could see a problem- fix it, refactor the code.. etc. or see a minor improvement- implement it, refactor the code, etc.
After SOX, I had to run everything thru the team lead who had to justify it to the manager who had to justify to the director who had to justify it to the senior director who had to justify it to the Department head, who had to justify it (in a group of other changes) to the CIO.
Just the overhead meant that something which would make the code 2% better was blocked many times per year. Not worth the ROI.
And the overhead meant that improvements to the code which would make future maintenance easier were never approved any more. So the code just got harder to maintain over time.
The time constraints would also be important. I didn't really care about co-workers performance. That was between them and management.
average water usage in the usa is 525L Water usage for several european countries and mexico are over 300L per day by the same measure.
This sounds crazy high since my water usage is under 1000G per month or under 126 liters per day. I don't know how much under because that's the minimum bill.
A huge factor would be more lawns in the U.S. since we still have low population density. If our population was as dense as europe, then our water usage per citizen would be way lower because more people would not have lawns.
There is little difference between a poorly trained human whose actions result in 8 people dying and a poorly trained A.I. system which takes actions that result in 8 people dying.
But.. once this edge case has been discovered, all patched instances of the A.I. will never make that mistake again. But typically, the human error will recur periodically.
So over time, AI will result in fewer and fewer deaths. Each from a new and potentially novel situation. Human errors will decline to a fixed rate and not get any better. However, when you randomly have a well trained human with deep experience, they will sometimes be able to handle the new and novel situation correctly even tho they too will fail most the time.
So you have Humans: Large error rate -> (experience and training) small error rate (limited by boredom, distraction, mood, health, sleep) + potential for dealing with a rare new problem correctly + rare potential for malicious actions.
A.I.: Smaller error rate ("out of the box") (never bored, distracted, unhappy from a failed relationship, never sick, never short on sleep, works 24 hours a day, 7 days a week).
Nope. Standard rule. When A.I can do something, then it's no longer A.I.
A.I. can play chess? Playing chess isn't A.I. but winning chess is. A.I. can win chess? Winning chess isn't A.I. but winning "Go" is. A.I.... (ad nauseum).
My life has seen a series of A.I. achievements which were then immediately labeled "not A.I.".
I kinda thing the fact that humans *can't* understand it, means we are getting in "real" A.I. territory. -- She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
Exactly, it would be like accidents from talking on the cell phone became impossible and never happened again within a few months after the first accident from talking on a cell phone.
I had a facebook account to play farmville. Actually... I had 5 facebook accounts to play farmville. And then one day facebook wanted to nail down who I really was. And I stopped using facebook.
Nope. Standard rule. When A.I can do something, then it's no longer A.I.
A.I. can play chess? Playing chess isn't A.I. but winning chess is. A.I. can win chess? Winning chess isn't A.I. but winning "Go" is. A.I.... (ad nauseum).
My life has seen a series of A.I. achievements which were then immediately labeled "not A.I.".
I kinda thing the fact that humans *can't* understand it, means we are getting in "real" A.I. territory.
Yes but it won't be talking on the cell phone as it plows into the car ahead of it at 70mph either.
And it won't be driving drunk and swerve into your lane and hit you head on at a closing speed of over 100mph.
It won't run red lights and T-Bone people at 60mph because it feels it's "late".
Humans have about 5 million accidents a year resulting in about 30,000 fatalities per year.
So far A.I. cars accident and fatality rates per mile appear to be about 1/10th of human drivers. So while A.I. cars would still have accidents (and at first, some which a human would not have), even the dumb a.i. cars we have now look like they would reduce the accident rate to 500,000 accidents and 3,000 fatalities.
The electric drive train generally has lower service and maintenance costs, better fuel economy and lower taxes compared to ICEV, but a significantly higher purchase price.
This is one study- there are more. It's known that maintenance costs will be lower because there are fewer systems requiring maintenance and you don't need things like regular oil changes.
It's more of a calculation of fuel costs and purchase price.
With fuel at $4 per gallon, an electric car can save you $1500 per year on fuel costs. So after 10 years, that's $15,000 dollars. With fuel higher- the savings are greater, with fuel lower- the savings are less. Fuel prices in the U.S. are likely to remain low for another 6-8 years based on our previous oil price spikes but... electric cars could go a long way in extending the duration of the price slump by killing the marginal price of fuel.
Maintenance is probably going to be on the order of about $500 per year, so that's about $5,000 (inflation adjusted 2017 dollars) over 10 years.
A larger question which isn't known yet is how well these cars will hold resale value. Given current prices for electric cars, that could swamp the fuel and maintenance savings. Or it might be a non-factor.
If the price for an electric car is similar to the ICE car (say due to price subsidies or new lower costs of production) then the electric car seems like a no brainer to me for people who mostly travel in the city. As the electric fueling stations are built out tho, they'll be more suitable for casual long distance travel.
Now add 90% of fast food jobs (3.3 million) and 90% of retail clerk/cashier jobs (another 3 million plus) and you are sitting at 15% of jobs destroyed in a 12 year period.
And people who lose fast food and retail jobs are not going to be going to work as robot designers.
It's at least 6 years off- but by 12 years from now it should be wide spread and in your face.
I'm thinking universal basic income or civil unrest.
It's a fair point about the ingredients but my time at mcdonalds is often over 8 minutes-- I was being generous for symmetry. If there is just one person ahead of me they can easily take a few minutes to order.
However, shopping takes me about 30 minutes a week tho. That's a fair point. So add that to the time. Fair enough. 21 meals / 30 minutes-- say 90 seconds per meal (rounding up to 45 minutes for shopping?).
The meal from mcdonalds/wendys/taco bell is still tasty, unhealthy, and expensive compared to home cooking.
And it's Sooooo simple. For the most part, cook meats for 8 minutes over a low heat, turn, cook for 3-4 minutes and you are done. Cooking over a low heat means for the 8 minutes- you don't even have to pay attention to the meal and you can cook the vegetables for free. And it's a lot more healthy than fast food (high carbs, high sodium, other problems).
And as long as you put water in the skillet right away while it is still hot - it's trivial cleanup.
Cooking with HIGH heat causes a problem with cleanup, burns the food, and forces you to pay close attention to the meal.
It's odd tho.. it takes me less time to cook and clean up from a meal that costs less than mcdonalds at home and would cost me $40 if I ate out.
Wild caught salmon... Put over a low heat in some olive oil or butter with a bit of seasoning of the day on top and perhaps a line of mayo. Place in veggies around the edge of the skilliet. Set timer for 8 minutes. Turn salmon at 8 minutes. Set timer for 4 minutes. Test that it's 'flaky' at 12 minutes and that the veggies are tender. Transfer to plate. Put 1/8" of water into pan, lightly boil, wipe pan clean. Crack open a nice chardonnay or make a martini.
Vs...
Drive to mcdonalds/wendy's/taco bell* for 8 minutes. Order and wait for 8 minutes. Drive home for 8 minutes. Put 12 miles on the car- probably use quarter gallon of gasoline- risk an accident.
*But not burger king. I got some coupons last month and that food is nasty and almost pure carbs. I don't know how they stay in business.
None of that applied to me. I was young, married, the race riots were mostly in the past, the war was over and the worst of the air pollution was in the past too.
Computing was incredibly exciting.. I was using sweet sixteen assembly and 8088 assembly language on my state of the art apple II with color graphics. At work, I wasn't to program for another 4 years while I was attending college.
And we used green monitors- not cards. I only used cards for one of my college courses and after that it was all vax 11-780 with white monitors and Empire.
Ultimate frisbee every weekend, dnd too. If you wanted a job, you could find one in a couple days. Life was very good.
Land gets more expensive all the time. And you have to pay the bill on that land.
The gas stations in the city center charge $2.45 a gallon while the gas stations (same brand) in less premium locations under 20 miles away are charging $1.95.
Similarly for a movie theater. The land it's on may be worth more than keeping the theater going.
OTH, with malls dying that might be reversing a bit.
Presumably, the landlord is more profitable and so they build more housing.
As always, the resulting glut of housing results in lower prices.
Unfortunately as early as 2007, banks were willing to use their deep pockets to simply remove units from supply for years to support the price. In some cases, even tearing down housing rather than renting it at lower prices.
But... in theory... it could produce more housing and lower prices because unlike seats at a concert- you can build more housing if demand is high.
Slashdot Mirror
Oh sure. I'd been coding for 32 years at that point, knew multiple languages and I understood the benefits of refactoring code and incremental improvement. Because of Sox requirements management only went for high cost, higher risk features with higher payoffs. This often resulted in programming resources literally sitting around doing nothing rather than making small incremental fixes and improvements which on an annual basis would greatly exceed the approved changes.
I was promoted into management after that and supported small changes and we benefited from the few I managed to get approved.
So sure- it frustrated me that a 24% to 36% annual improvement was blocked.
Instead of getting a total 50%+ annual improvement we only got three to four 5% improvements (and of course new features).
Being blocked from doing small fixes by Sarbanes-Oxley and management. But really Sarbanes Oxley.
Prior to SOX, I could see a problem- fix it, refactor the code.. etc. or see a minor improvement- implement it, refactor the code, etc.
After SOX, I had to run everything thru the team lead who had to justify it to the manager who had to justify to the director who had to justify it to the senior director who had to justify it to the Department head, who had to justify it (in a group of other changes) to the CIO.
Just the overhead meant that something which would make the code 2% better was blocked many times per year. Not worth the ROI.
And the overhead meant that improvements to the code which would make future maintenance easier were never approved any more. So the code just got harder to maintain over time.
The time constraints would also be important. I didn't really care about co-workers performance. That was between them and management.
And plug it back in in the morning.
It's still using your electricity to run their business.
average water usage in the usa is 525L
Water usage for several european countries and mexico are over 300L per day by the same measure.
This sounds crazy high since my water usage is under 1000G per month or under 126 liters per day. I don't know how much under because that's the minimum bill.
http://www.data360.org/dsg.asp...
A huge factor would be more lawns in the U.S. since we still have low population density. If our population was as dense as europe, then our water usage per citizen would be way lower because more people would not have lawns.
You might be able to green the desert with it.
The area under the solar panels will be shady.
It does seem like large numbers of these things will effect the microclimate in some way.
There is little difference between a poorly trained human whose actions result in 8 people dying and a poorly trained A.I. system which takes actions that result in 8 people dying.
But.. once this edge case has been discovered, all patched instances of the A.I. will never make that mistake again. But typically, the human error will recur periodically.
So over time, AI will result in fewer and fewer deaths. Each from a new and potentially novel situation. Human errors will decline to a fixed rate and not get any better. However, when you randomly have a well trained human with deep experience, they will sometimes be able to handle the new and novel situation correctly even tho they too will fail most the time.
So you have
Humans: Large error rate -> (experience and training) small error rate (limited by boredom, distraction, mood, health, sleep) + potential for dealing with a rare new problem correctly + rare potential for malicious actions.
A.I.: Smaller error rate ("out of the box") (never bored, distracted, unhappy from a failed relationship, never sick, never short on sleep, works 24 hours a day, 7 days a week).
Nope. Standard rule. When A.I can do something, then it's no longer A.I.
A.I. can play chess? Playing chess isn't A.I. but winning chess is. ... (ad nauseum).
A.I. can win chess? Winning chess isn't A.I. but winning "Go" is.
A.I.
My life has seen a series of A.I. achievements which were then immediately labeled "not A.I.".
I kinda thing the fact that humans *can't* understand it, means we are getting in "real" A.I. territory.
--
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
After two to three days, my firefox memory runs out of control and then I have to restart it.
And then things are fine for two to three days.
Right now I have 12 tabs open and it's using 923 mb of memory and 2.7% of cpu (on an i7).
Exactly, it would be like accidents from talking on the cell phone became impossible and never happened again within a few months after the first accident from talking on a cell phone.
I had a facebook account to play farmville. Actually... I had 5 facebook accounts to play farmville.
And then one day facebook wanted to nail down who I really was. And I stopped using facebook.
That must have been over 5 years ago.
Nope. Standard rule. When A.I can do something, then it's no longer A.I.
A.I. can play chess? Playing chess isn't A.I. but winning chess is. ... (ad nauseum).
A.I. can win chess? Winning chess isn't A.I. but winning "Go" is.
A.I.
My life has seen a series of A.I. achievements which were then immediately labeled "not A.I.".
I kinda thing the fact that humans *can't* understand it, means we are getting in "real" A.I. territory.
Yes but it won't be talking on the cell phone as it plows into the car ahead of it at 70mph either.
And it won't be driving drunk and swerve into your lane and hit you head on at a closing speed of over 100mph.
It won't run red lights and T-Bone people at 60mph because it feels it's "late".
Humans have about 5 million accidents a year resulting in about 30,000 fatalities per year.
So far A.I. cars accident and fatality rates per mile appear to be about 1/10th of human drivers. So while A.I. cars would still have accidents (and at first, some which a human would not have), even the dumb a.i. cars we have now look like they would reduce the accident rate to 500,000 accidents and 3,000 fatalities.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/s...
Total cost of ownership and its potential implications for battery electric vehicle diffusion
The electric drive train generally has lower service and maintenance costs, better fuel economy and lower taxes compared to ICEV, but a significantly higher purchase price.
This is one study- there are more. It's known that maintenance costs will be lower because there are fewer systems requiring maintenance and you don't need things like regular oil changes.
It's more of a calculation of fuel costs and purchase price.
With fuel at $4 per gallon, an electric car can save you $1500 per year on fuel costs. So after 10 years, that's $15,000 dollars. With fuel higher- the savings are greater, with fuel lower- the savings are less. Fuel prices in the U.S. are likely to remain low for another 6-8 years based on our previous oil price spikes but... electric cars could go a long way in extending the duration of the price slump by killing the marginal price of fuel.
Maintenance is probably going to be on the order of about $500 per year, so that's about $5,000 (inflation adjusted 2017 dollars) over 10 years.
A larger question which isn't known yet is how well these cars will hold resale value. Given current prices for electric cars, that could swamp the fuel and maintenance savings. Or it might be a non-factor.
If the price for an electric car is similar to the ICE car (say due to price subsidies or new lower costs of production) then the electric car seems like a no brainer to me for people who mostly travel in the city. As the electric fueling stations are built out tho, they'll be more suitable for casual long distance travel.
Yea.. that's why so many items are up by 50% over the last 6 years alone.
Prices are targeted at the top 20% who make big money. Not at the bottom 80% who do not.
If they can sell 3 items for $21 why would they destroy their brand by selling 10 items for $20?
Yea it's said. A lot of young women are going to die due to preclampsia and similar problems (as they already have in other countries).
And we won't be able to fix this for at least 20 years.
For god's sake- get out and VOTE in 2020.
The pro-corporate stuff is going to be positively totalitarian.
Now add 90% of fast food jobs (3.3 million) and 90% of retail clerk/cashier jobs (another 3 million plus) and you are sitting at 15% of jobs destroyed in a 12 year period.
And people who lose fast food and retail jobs are not going to be going to work as robot designers.
It's at least 6 years off- but by 12 years from now it should be wide spread and in your face.
I'm thinking universal basic income or civil unrest.
It's a fair point about the ingredients but my time at mcdonalds is often over 8 minutes-- I was being generous for symmetry. If there is just one person ahead of me they can easily take a few minutes to order.
However, shopping takes me about 30 minutes a week tho. That's a fair point. So add that to the time. Fair enough. 21 meals / 30 minutes-- say 90 seconds per meal (rounding up to 45 minutes for shopping?).
The meal from mcdonalds/wendys/taco bell is still tasty, unhealthy, and expensive compared to home cooking.
And it's Sooooo simple. For the most part, cook meats for 8 minutes over a low heat, turn, cook for 3-4 minutes and you are done. Cooking over a low heat means for the 8 minutes- you don't even have to pay attention to the meal and you can cook the vegetables for free. And it's a lot more healthy than fast food (high carbs, high sodium, other problems).
And as long as you put water in the skillet right away while it is still hot - it's trivial cleanup.
Cooking with HIGH heat causes a problem with cleanup, burns the food, and forces you to pay close attention to the meal.
It's odd tho.. it takes me less time to cook and clean up from a meal that costs less than mcdonalds at home and would cost me $40 if I ate out.
Wild caught salmon...
Put over a low heat in some olive oil or butter with a bit of seasoning of the day on top and perhaps a line of mayo. Place in veggies around the edge of the skilliet. Set timer for 8 minutes. Turn salmon at 8 minutes. Set timer for 4 minutes. Test that it's 'flaky' at 12 minutes and that the veggies are tender. Transfer to plate. Put 1/8" of water into pan, lightly boil, wipe pan clean.
Crack open a nice chardonnay or make a martini.
Vs...
Drive to mcdonalds/wendy's/taco bell* for 8 minutes. Order and wait for 8 minutes. Drive home for 8 minutes.
Put 12 miles on the car- probably use quarter gallon of gasoline- risk an accident.
*But not burger king. I got some coupons last month and that food is nasty and almost pure carbs. I don't know how they stay in business.
Not sure if you are being subtly sarcastic or are an example of the stockholm syndrome.
Bad memory!
you are correct, it was 6502.
None of that applied to me. I was young, married, the race riots were mostly in the past, the war was over and the worst of the air pollution was in the past too.
Computing was incredibly exciting.. I was using sweet sixteen assembly and 8088 assembly language on my state of the art apple II with color graphics. At work, I wasn't to program for another 4 years while I was attending college.
And we used green monitors- not cards. I only used cards for one of my college courses and after that it was all vax 11-780 with white monitors and Empire.
Ultimate frisbee every weekend, dnd too. If you wanted a job, you could find one in a couple days. Life was very good.
I worked on a System 3, Model D with a 1403 printer. Good times. Happier than today in many ways.
There's a basic problem tho.
Land gets more expensive all the time. And you have to pay the bill on that land.
The gas stations in the city center charge $2.45 a gallon while the gas stations (same brand) in less premium locations under 20 miles away are charging $1.95.
Similarly for a movie theater. The land it's on may be worth more than keeping the theater going.
OTH, with malls dying that might be reversing a bit.
That's what the tinseltown theater by me charges.
The Edwards theater wants $12 for the same movie. It's just not worth it.
Presumably, the landlord is more profitable and so they build more housing.
As always, the resulting glut of housing results in lower prices.
Unfortunately as early as 2007, banks were willing to use their deep pockets to simply remove units from supply for years to support the price. In some cases, even tearing down housing rather than renting it at lower prices.
But... in theory... it could produce more housing and lower prices because unlike seats at a concert- you can build more housing if demand is high.