You really should have read past the first paragraph. I'm agreeing with you--if the the past is an indicator of the future, and I think it is, it's going to get warmer and keep getting warmer for a few centuries.
I've spent a lot of a long career building models that fit real-world measurements and have predictive power.
I would never be so dim as to call that doing science. Prediction is not explanation.
As to your item 3: AGW hasn't been falsified because it's not falsifiable, nor has any climate model demonstrated predictive power. It's astonishing how few climate scientists betray any understanding of chaos.
I'll stick with the equally-valid theory that the past is an indicator of the future, that the current warming trend is normal in the scheme of things, and that it should get quite warm in the next few hundred years.
.05 is one chance in twenty that it's a fluke. That's what we call statistical insignificance.
A statistical correlation isn't evidence; it's a pointer that says "here there may be some interesting science." Until you do the science, you know nothing.
30 years is too short a period to be drawing conclusions. Looking at all of the current interglacial--back 10,000 years--makes more sense: http://smpro.ca/crunch/GISP2Civil.png
On that scale, these guys' record years are chump change. If the Mann Hockey Stick is an indicator that we're leaving the current cold spell and going back to normal temperatures, we can expect lots of "record years" for the next 200-500 years before it turns around again.
Having walked my dogs in -20C weather this morning, it can't get warmer fast enough.
I don't make those choices; individual businesses do. The fact that my clients choose to use what I consider to be the best, and best integrated, tools for the job is a happy convenience.
There's reality, and there's the Linux Enthusiast Reality Distortion Field.
they just use computers for resource allocation, scheduling, and billing and other accounting.
And the tools they use to do this are standards for the industry they're in, and they come from trade associations and accounting firms as Excel spreadsheets and Access databases. The firm that installed my furnace and water heater did it according to a dimensioned and commented Visio diagram they prepared laying out the equipment, wiring, gas piping and plumbing changes.
I have a dim memory of a study indicating a genetic base for this.
For some people, Arabica tastes like dishwater; that's not hyperbole, it really tastes like soapy water. The more Robusta in my coffee, the better I like it. I also prefer Merlot to Chablis and have a taste for really hot, clear your sinuses, spices.
It's anecdotal, but among my friends and family, everyone's with or against the lot.
This being slashdot, it's astounding that you think that's relevant. I'd have thought that, even at a low-ranked school, basic stats would be part of CS.
If anything, you've demonstrated that not all moving mechanical failures result in accidents, which weakens your case.
You must work in a dull environment. My clients expect to be able to click on a graphic or table and edit or comment on it in place.
Embedding is a great labor saving device--the people where you work must just not know about it, because it's the lazy thing to do.
The only time I put dead cells or bitmaps (actually Windows Metafile is best for a whole bunch of reasons) is when I can't depend on the audience having the apps. In that case I usually put to pdf anyway.
As in cell-phone cancer, bad fat and bad guns, you can't prove a negative. This makes the topic a research grant magnet, so we'll be seeing this kind of garbage forever.
You've confused NAT with VLAN. Two very separate things. VLAN requires local communication through the router, NAT doesn't. And it has no impact on network traffic, LAN or WAN.
Behind NAT everybody is part of one happy non-routable family. If you want to control who gets out through the router, that's what MAC address filtering is about and that, in most cases is a one-click effort in the router dialog (at least it is on my cheap SMB router). SPI's a given. Nobody's built a router without it in a very long time.
If you want to open a port for inbound connections, that's also just a few keystrokes. Nothing complicated.
Nobody suggested NAT replaces firewalls. It just makes everything else easier.
As usual, RTFA, if you have the requisite skill. The only content on the network involved is BT premium content. There is nothing else there to throttle. Even if you have trouble reading, you can see it in the picture.
Separate server, separate network, separate service.
So what are you going to do? Make it illegal to bypass existing internet nodes to deliver IP services? Make it illegal to offer more bandwidth than existing IP services? How about making it illegal to charge more than any existing IP Service? How about making it illegal to charge less than any existing IP Service?
Why don't we just quit all this nonsense and pass laws for bandwidth and price controls, along with an "IP Commission" to enforce them?
Oops! Somebody once said "Be careful with sarcasm; the idiots are certain take it as advice."
So global warming, which is all our fault, is responsible for the disappearance of 2/3 of the world's plant species. We have to do something. Now. Everybody has to stop everything they're doing!
The big problem with this is that most of the world's and humanity's interesting systems are chaotic. You may get lucky and find an attractor or two.
In any case, simulation can show you plausible futures, but they'll have no predictive value. The outputs will be little more than cybernetic speculative fiction.
On the other hand, there's no explaining chaos to a politician, or to a scientist who believes that more data and higher resolution are all that's needed to clear up the confusion; the grant money will keep flowing.
Slashdot Mirror
Chuckle.
You really should have read past the first paragraph. I'm agreeing with you--if the the past is an indicator of the future, and I think it is, it's going to get warmer and keep getting warmer for a few centuries.
I've spent a lot of a long career building models that fit real-world measurements and have predictive power.
I would never be so dim as to call that doing science. Prediction is not explanation.
As to your item 3: AGW hasn't been falsified because it's not falsifiable, nor has any climate model demonstrated predictive power. It's astonishing how few climate scientists betray any understanding of chaos.
I'll stick with the equally-valid theory that the past is an indicator of the future, that the current warming trend is normal in the scheme of things, and that it should get quite warm in the next few hundred years.
You're wise to post anonymously. Humor-impaired, but wise.
.05 is one chance in twenty that it's a fluke. That's what we call statistical insignificance.
A statistical correlation isn't evidence; it's a pointer that says "here there may be some interesting science." Until you do the science, you know nothing.
30 years is too short a period to be drawing conclusions. Looking at all of the current interglacial--back 10,000 years--makes more sense: http://smpro.ca/crunch/GISP2Civil.png
On that scale, these guys' record years are chump change. If the Mann Hockey Stick is an indicator that we're leaving the current cold spell and going back to normal temperatures, we can expect lots of "record years" for the next 200-500 years before it turns around again.
Having walked my dogs in -20C weather this morning, it can't get warmer fast enough.
I don't make those choices; individual businesses do. The fact that my clients choose to use what I consider to be the best, and best integrated, tools for the job is a happy convenience.
There's reality, and there's the Linux Enthusiast Reality Distortion Field.
they just use computers for resource allocation, scheduling, and billing and other accounting.
And the tools they use to do this are standards for the industry they're in, and they come from trade associations and accounting firms as Excel spreadsheets and Access databases. The firm that installed my furnace and water heater did it according to a dimensioned and commented Visio diagram they prepared laying out the equipment, wiring, gas piping and plumbing changes.
Where there's business, there's Windows.
I have a dim memory of a study indicating a genetic base for this.
For some people, Arabica tastes like dishwater; that's not hyperbole, it really tastes like soapy water. The more Robusta in my coffee, the better I like it. I also prefer Merlot to Chablis and have a taste for really hot, clear your sinuses, spices.
It's anecdotal, but among my friends and family, everyone's with or against the lot.
I cant say for sure, but for me its 100%.
This being slashdot, it's astounding that you think that's relevant. I'd have thought that, even at a low-ranked school, basic stats would be part of CS.
If anything, you've demonstrated that not all moving mechanical failures result in accidents, which weakens your case.
All that trouble to get overpriced weak coffee.
A toony at Timmy's gets you good strong coffee and change, without interrupting your call.
Can you tell I'm Canadian?
You must work in a dull environment. My clients expect to be able to click on a graphic or table and edit or comment on it in place.
Embedding is a great labor saving device--the people where you work must just not know about it, because it's the lazy thing to do.
The only time I put dead cells or bitmaps (actually Windows Metafile is best for a whole bunch of reasons) is when I can't depend on the audience having the apps. In that case I usually put to pdf anyway.
It's called a free market. I'm probably older than anyone on /. but I don't think I should be paid a lot just because I'm old.
I expect to be paid a lot because I'm smarter than the rest of you freaks.
The problem with your solution is that your customers will expect to see Word documents with embedded Visio graphics and embedded Excel tables.
They'll expect tools that work as add-ins to Excel and Access, written in VBA.
If you're doing projects, they'll want the plan prepared in MS Project.
Your NEW company doesn't exist in a vacuum.
So, what you're saying is that Lerner and Schankerman lied about their findings?
As in cell-phone cancer, bad fat and bad guns, you can't prove a negative. This makes the topic a research grant magnet, so we'll be seeing this kind of garbage forever.
No. The question is how will you know it's good design. The answer is, I prefer to keep you guessing.
Nice Strawman there!
There are many ways to skin a cat and many safeguards that can be used to secure an OS.
Open source makes it easy to find which ones are in use and closed source makes it difficult.
The message is that good design plus obscurity beats just good design. That, at least, is the theory behind steganography.
I have ipv4 at home and a /16 subnet. I'm not going to run out of addresses any time soon.
You've confused NAT with VLAN. Two very separate things. VLAN requires local communication through the router, NAT doesn't. And it has no impact on network traffic, LAN or WAN.
Behind NAT everybody is part of one happy non-routable family. If you want to control who gets out through the router, that's what MAC address filtering is about and that, in most cases is a one-click effort in the router dialog (at least it is on my cheap SMB router). SPI's a given. Nobody's built a router without it in a very long time.
If you want to open a port for inbound connections, that's also just a few keystrokes. Nothing complicated.
Nobody suggested NAT replaces firewalls. It just makes everything else easier.
A thunderstorm is hardly "controlled circumstances." And who said anything about pairs?
As usual, RTFA, if you have the requisite skill. The only content on the network involved is BT premium content. There is nothing else there to throttle. Even if you have trouble reading, you can see it in the picture.
Separate server, separate network, separate service.
So what are you going to do? Make it illegal to bypass existing internet nodes to deliver IP services? Make it illegal to offer more bandwidth than existing IP services? How about making it illegal to charge more than any existing IP Service? How about making it illegal to charge less than any existing IP Service?
Why don't we just quit all this nonsense and pass laws for bandwidth and price controls, along with an "IP Commission" to enforce them?
Oops! Somebody once said "Be careful with sarcasm; the idiots are certain take it as advice."
So global warming, which is all our fault, is responsible for the disappearance of 2/3 of the world's plant species. We have to do something. Now. Everybody has to stop everything they're doing!
Thanks for making my point.
The big problem with this is that most of the world's and humanity's interesting systems are chaotic. You may get lucky and find an attractor or two.
In any case, simulation can show you plausible futures, but they'll have no predictive value. The outputs will be little more than cybernetic speculative fiction.
On the other hand, there's no explaining chaos to a politician, or to a scientist who believes that more data and higher resolution are all that's needed to clear up the confusion; the grant money will keep flowing.