As an expert in this field I can say with near absolute certainty that this is a totally solid piece of market research.. True strong AI does not pose a near or even medium term threat to humanity. In fact it is a basic tenet of Strong AI theory that you (should only) create machines that have inbuilt moral safeguards that protect them and humanity from them. If you don't know how to build such safeguards then you are by definition pretty much written out of being able to build any kind of tenable machine at all.
For my own project I estimate about 10 years (minimum) to achieve a working prototype and about 20 years to reach the point of (initial) commercial development.. Those figures are not currently moving because the project is unfunded and not yet in full development. Those timescales mean that companies like Google and Microsoft and all the others are not remotely interested in real Strong AI. (That is why Google has been talking about selling Boston Dynamics - that plus the fact that their machines are very expensive. Eg about $100,000 to $1 million each..) The real Strong AI also cannot be developed open source without creating a huge safely risk - which means that most universities and open source people will not be interested either..
Saying all the above once it does become mature Strong AI could (potentially) create a global market on the scale of more than a trillion dollars per year. That is the point where AI may just start to become an existential danger. The danger comes from systems that are poorly designed or that have weak hardware or that are vulnerable to hackers..
Background : Dangers from the Asimov Laws - 0. Mass killing, large scale extermination, and the destruction of human civilization to improve the prospects of long term human survival. 1. Schizophrenia and internal paradox. Worst case scenario the killing of all humans that harm other humans. 2. Subversion to commit crime or to beliefs such as radical Islam - that result in killing and-or other harm. The 'Steal Me' law. 3. Allows the machine to be destroyed by any human who is able to talk to it. Also leads towards instability and schizophrenia like problems.
Sorry from outside the US where the media is more honest and less partisan it is 100% clear that Russia did hack and attack the Democratic party side extensively. Also know your facts - the biggest liars of all are Fox. Fox is owned by Murdoch, a global media manipulator and enemy of democracy.
But this is a foreign nation which has blamed America for its woes and has had a grudge against America going back decades. Also this was a direct attack against the US electoral system using highly refined and targeted hacking and propaganda. In times when the US was a much stronger country that would have been seen as an act of war. I doubt there is actually any direct connection between Trump and Putin, Putin is probably hoping Trump will do as much damage to America, and its democracy and economy as possible. Putin may well have disastrously miscalculated there, either for himself or the world. Lets face it no one really knows what Trump will do. He cant remotely fulfil all the promises he's made through because they flatly contradict each other..
Why do I get the feeling I am listening to a bunch of people using the word 'reductionism' without actually understanding what it means. Reductionism requires and is - logical reduction to first principles. The logic must be complete and have a solid base - a base of known and tested truth. Using 'reduction' without understanding that is like using the word 'rape' the way SJW feminists use it.:)
"You blame alternative media for Trump's victory, but you're still so brainwashed by corporate media that you still don't realize he's a boyscout compared to Hillary,..."
Soviet propaganda detected. Agent Trumpski has risen and now we will see if he obeys his master or turns on him....:D
Got some bad news for you. The extremist fringes of the Republican party are now in charge. Its time to start putting your money into assault rifles and nuclear fallout shelters. With Trumps real sponsor it might also be a good time to start learning Russian.:D
Only correction I would make is that it isn't millions who will die but billions. The exact number is probably somewhere between 3 and 5 billion but the real figure could be either higher or lower. The biggest most important effect of climate change will probably be dessert expansion, mostly hitting tropical and equatorial regions as a rough map. The other side of the problem is that climate change is likely to become serious at about the same time as the human population hits 10 billion, and global overall population will play a huge part in the final number who are likely to die.
Oh dear... There really is not that vast a difference between a high energy sub-orbital flight and a full orbital flight. With a little modification ballistic missiles can and have been used to launch satellites, and visa versa orbit capable rockets make very good missile platforms. In the old cold war days the biggest nuclear warheads could only be delivered by planes or large space rockets - like the Soyuz for instance.. In its early days the Space Shuttle was described as the most capable nuclear warhead delivery system ever created.
The only real difference between a rocket and a missile? is, well semantics - a ballistic missile is technically a rocket, and a rocket is technically a missile..:)
On solid based verses liquid fuelled rockets there is a huge difference. Once assembled solid fuel rockets require very little regular maintenance and can be launched in minutes or even seconds. Liquid fuel rockets require liquid oxygen, which is dangerous, corrosive, super cold, and highly flammable - and very complex to handle. It also takes something like 6 to 12 hours or even more to fuel a liquid rocket before it can be launched. Alternatively if liquid fuelled rockets are kept fuelled it doesn't take very long before they need to be completely dismantled and overhauled, or even replaced.. In other words for the military solid fuel rockets are far cheaper (maybe 10 times cheaper), far safer, fire quickly, require smaller launch systems and less personnel, and in general make much better weapons.. You can look it all up on Wikipedia.
They hacked the results by feeding information tuned to manipulate the voters in the way they wanted. The voters (the gormless fools) believed every word. Presto! Agent 'Trumpski' won. And America prepares to surrender to the newly raised Soviet empire..
If fusion power had been treated as a priority we would already have it today. However as it stands commercially viable working power plants are still twenty to forty years away.. Most of that isn't about further research though, its simply the time they take to build these huge reactors like ITER or DEMO. When it comes down to it the real problem is a lack of scale at the high end of steel fabrication - what fusion really needs are new advanced, super large steel foundries..
(Puts dark glasses on.) The brain is digital. The brain is made of atoms and atoms are digital, look closely enough and everything is digital. Of course that is pedantic nonsense but that is how I'm feeling today.:) (because the number of atoms in the brain changes constantly and atoms are below our point of consideration - ie in most circumstances they effectively don't exist as individual objects.)
(More sensibly) Anyone who reads even the basics of neural signalling will tell you that brains use hybrid digital analog logic. Neurons use pcm coding which transmits both digital and analogue signals using variable timing in trains of pulses.. It is pretty bizarre if they use binary arithmetic as well, it sounds like the article is not talking about arithmetic directly though but communications logic - which is something totally different.
The whole problem with the theory is that E = mc^2 doesn't fail. If C is infinite then a single photon has infinite energy. I have worked on FTL theories for years and one old idea is that the universe began as a single photon with an enormous energy, this decayed to produce the big bang and also created the absolute frame that forms the FTL universe. The phase space of the absolute frame is completely empty because its infinity becomes impossible to reach for anything with less energy than that initial photon. The photons described could still exist but by the definition of the absolute frame their energy and speed would be finite.
Infinity is one of the hardest parts of the FTL region of physics because its maths is alien to the maths used in theories like general relativity. The basic solution is to give all infinites an arbitrary finite value. The special case of n/0 is treated as an imaginary infinite, and it has the base of net 0. Photons have a net zero mass made of positive and negative fractions - ie have imaginary mass. The definition also means that from the context of the STL space photons have an infinite energy and speed, which appears as the familiar 'finite' speed of light 2.99E8 m/s. By all this logic even that first photon ultimately has a finite mass - at least to whatever is outside the universe.
Most of this FTL physics stuff is always ultimately unprovable anyway. That's a big part of why most physicists hate it so much..:)
Your statement depends on an assumption that General Relativity is correct above the speed of light. An assumption for which there is less proof than.. astrology, geocentric solar system, hollow Earth theory, flat Earth theory, Biblical creationism, Barney the dinosaur... Above the speed of light general relativity defines a universe with no spatial stability, and that only makes sense in a universe that is a simulation or otherwise doesn't exist.. The only type of FTL theory that does work logically is an absolute frame model, and that requires an FTL simultaneity. An FTL simultaneity rules out general relativity categorically..
In a universe like that FTL travel is possible. (or at least not categorically impossible)
Its basic engineering. You need to consider and have plans for as many worst case scenarios as possible, while at the same time maintaining a positive good position vis spurious fault events. So agree with you totally..
Yep when the say 'unconventional' what they mean is gay.. This bill is form the voice of the UK Taliban, whether feminazis or con-servatives or Christian police fundamentalists its all the same. They hate sex, they hate sex that isn't in the missionary position between married couples. They want sex tucked back into the dirty Victorian cupboard so they can get on and start having rape sex with the child prostitutes like they did back in Victorian London. They also like-need it illegal because that's another of their kinks.:D
I have a sex thing for gingers. I suppose that would be 'unconventional' sex. Or being UK conservatives its any sex that doesn't involve the husband beating his wife first...:D
So do biscuits. Biscuits also kill far more than terrorism in most countries including the UK. Unless you live in Iraq or Afghanistan. Terrorism is the flea that roars like a lion.
With Islamic terrorism the best analogy is probably a hydra. How do you fight a hydra? 'Keep cutting the head(s) off.' seems to be the only strategy we have.., which is why we will still be fighting it in twenty or thirty years. Now with Trump encouraging proliferation in twenty or thirty years we might be seeing Islamic terrorists with atomic bombs. That is the time to get properly scared..:D
So your unhappy that Brexit might drain some energy out of the Kleptocracy that drives London? London has become a vast parasitic tick sucking the economic lifeblood out of the rest of the country and making this place a distorted extreme of rich and poor. Banking makes over 50 - 60 billion profit a year - but most of that money is drained out of real companies and the real economy first, a lot of the rest comes from money laundering for foreign tax dodgers and other forms international of dodgy dealing..
London has been the biggest beneficiary of the EU while the rest of the country has slowly been going down hill economically. That is why most of London voted to stay in but most of the rest of the country voted to leave.. The major thing that really connects it to Trump is that the rest of the UK has been London's rust belt for far too long.
Don't worry about it your still living in a state of delusion. The EU is a system that is inevitably heading towards its own destruction. It is the big ship yes but there are thirty captains and they are at constant war with each other and even when they do make a decision it can take up to ten years to steer. In short its a hopeless labyrinth of incompetent bureaucracy. It is slowly suffocating and crushing freedom and democracy throughout Europe, at the top it is driven by corruption and seething incompetence and it is intolerant of dissent. The US isn't always a very good democracy either for exactly the same reasons - too big. Not a country so much as a continent of country sized semi-independent states that are often in conflict with each other... and for the most part the US does it better than the EU..
I hate to point this out but I believe there have been something like a dozen attempts since 7/7. I hate to say it but the only reason the UK hasn't been hit again is due to mass surveillance. . Otherwise I totally agree with you..:)
Slashdot Mirror
As an expert in this field I can say with near absolute certainty that this is a totally solid piece of market research.. True strong AI does not pose a near or even medium term threat to humanity. In fact it is a basic tenet of Strong AI theory that you (should only) create machines that have inbuilt moral safeguards that protect them and humanity from them. If you don't know how to build such safeguards then you are by definition pretty much written out of being able to build any kind of tenable machine at all.
For my own project I estimate about 10 years (minimum) to achieve a working prototype and about 20 years to reach the point of (initial) commercial development.. Those figures are not currently moving because the project is unfunded and not yet in full development. Those timescales mean that companies like Google and Microsoft and all the others are not remotely interested in real Strong AI. (That is why Google has been talking about selling Boston Dynamics - that plus the fact that their machines are very expensive. Eg about $100,000 to $1 million each..) The real Strong AI also cannot be developed open source without creating a huge safely risk - which means that most universities and open source people will not be interested either..
Saying all the above once it does become mature Strong AI could (potentially) create a global market on the scale of more than a trillion dollars per year. That is the point where AI may just start to become an existential danger. The danger comes from systems that are poorly designed or that have weak hardware or that are vulnerable to hackers..
Background : Dangers from the Asimov Laws -
0. Mass killing, large scale extermination, and the destruction of human civilization to improve the prospects of long term human survival.
1. Schizophrenia and internal paradox. Worst case scenario the killing of all humans that harm other humans.
2. Subversion to commit crime or to beliefs such as radical Islam - that result in killing and-or other harm. The 'Steal Me' law.
3. Allows the machine to be destroyed by any human who is able to talk to it. Also leads towards instability and schizophrenia like problems.
Sorry from outside the US where the media is more honest and less partisan it is 100% clear that Russia did hack and attack the Democratic party side extensively. Also know your facts - the biggest liars of all are Fox. Fox is owned by Murdoch, a global media manipulator and enemy of democracy.
But this is a foreign nation which has blamed America for its woes and has had a grudge against America going back decades. Also this was a direct attack against the US electoral system using highly refined and targeted hacking and propaganda. In times when the US was a much stronger country that would have been seen as an act of war.
I doubt there is actually any direct connection between Trump and Putin, Putin is probably hoping Trump will do as much damage to America, and its democracy and economy as possible. Putin may well have disastrously miscalculated there, either for himself or the world. Lets face it no one really knows what Trump will do. He cant remotely fulfil all the promises he's made through because they flatly contradict each other..
We really do live in interesting times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
Why do I get the feeling I am listening to a bunch of people using the word 'reductionism' without actually understanding what it means. Reductionism requires and is - logical reduction to first principles. The logic must be complete and have a solid base - a base of known and tested truth. Using 'reduction' without understanding that is like using the word 'rape' the way SJW feminists use it. :)
"You blame alternative media for Trump's victory, but you're still so brainwashed by corporate media that you still don't realize he's a boyscout compared to Hillary, ..."
Soviet propaganda detected. Agent Trumpski has risen and now we will see if he obeys his master or turns on him.... :D
Maybe is was the city of R'lyeh where mighty Cthulhu and his/its brethren sleep.
Got some bad news for you. The extremist fringes of the Republican party are now in charge. Its time to start putting your money into assault rifles and nuclear fallout shelters. With Trumps real sponsor it might also be a good time to start learning Russian. :D
Only correction I would make is that it isn't millions who will die but billions. The exact number is probably somewhere between 3 and 5 billion but the real figure could be either higher or lower. The biggest most important effect of climate change will probably be dessert expansion, mostly hitting tropical and equatorial regions as a rough map. The other side of the problem is that climate change is likely to become serious at about the same time as the human population hits 10 billion, and global overall population will play a huge part in the final number who are likely to die.
Oh dear... There really is not that vast a difference between a high energy sub-orbital flight and a full orbital flight. With a little modification ballistic missiles can and have been used to launch satellites, and visa versa orbit capable rockets make very good missile platforms. In the old cold war days the biggest nuclear warheads could only be delivered by planes or large space rockets - like the Soyuz for instance.. In its early days the Space Shuttle was described as the most capable nuclear warhead delivery system ever created.
The only real difference between a rocket and a missile? is, well semantics - a ballistic missile is technically a rocket, and a rocket is technically a missile.. :)
On solid based verses liquid fuelled rockets there is a huge difference. Once assembled solid fuel rockets require very little regular maintenance and can be launched in minutes or even seconds. Liquid fuel rockets require liquid oxygen, which is dangerous, corrosive, super cold, and highly flammable - and very complex to handle. It also takes something like 6 to 12 hours or even more to fuel a liquid rocket before it can be launched. Alternatively if liquid fuelled rockets are kept fuelled it doesn't take very long before they need to be completely dismantled and overhauled, or even replaced..
In other words for the military solid fuel rockets are far cheaper (maybe 10 times cheaper), far safer, fire quickly, require smaller launch systems and less personnel, and in general make much better weapons.. You can look it all up on Wikipedia.
They hacked the results by feeding information tuned to manipulate the voters in the way they wanted. The voters (the gormless fools) believed every word. Presto! Agent 'Trumpski' won. And America prepares to surrender to the newly raised Soviet empire..
If fusion power had been treated as a priority we would already have it today. However as it stands commercially viable working power plants are still twenty to forty years away.. Most of that isn't about further research though, its simply the time they take to build these huge reactors like ITER or DEMO. When it comes down to it the real problem is a lack of scale at the high end of steel fabrication - what fusion really needs are new advanced, super large steel foundries..
(Puts dark glasses on.) The brain is digital. The brain is made of atoms and atoms are digital, look closely enough and everything is digital. Of course that is pedantic nonsense but that is how I'm feeling today. :) (because the number of atoms in the brain changes constantly and atoms are below our point of consideration - ie in most circumstances they effectively don't exist as individual objects.)
(More sensibly) Anyone who reads even the basics of neural signalling will tell you that brains use hybrid digital analog logic. Neurons use pcm coding which transmits both digital and analogue signals using variable timing in trains of pulses.. It is pretty bizarre if they use binary arithmetic as well, it sounds like the article is not talking about arithmetic directly though but communications logic - which is something totally different.
The whole problem with the theory is that E = mc^2 doesn't fail. If C is infinite then a single photon has infinite energy. I have worked on FTL theories for years and one old idea is that the universe began as a single photon with an enormous energy, this decayed to produce the big bang and also created the absolute frame that forms the FTL universe. The phase space of the absolute frame is completely empty because its infinity becomes impossible to reach for anything with less energy than that initial photon. The photons described could still exist but by the definition of the absolute frame their energy and speed would be finite.
Infinity is one of the hardest parts of the FTL region of physics because its maths is alien to the maths used in theories like general relativity. The basic solution is to give all infinites an arbitrary finite value. The special case of n/0 is treated as an imaginary infinite, and it has the base of net 0. Photons have a net zero mass made of positive and negative fractions - ie have imaginary mass. The definition also means that from the context of the STL space photons have an infinite energy and speed, which appears as the familiar 'finite' speed of light 2.99E8 m/s. By all this logic even that first photon ultimately has a finite mass - at least to whatever is outside the universe.
Most of this FTL physics stuff is always ultimately unprovable anyway. That's a big part of why most physicists hate it so much.. :)
Even cheaper than aluminium foil is the off button. Saves on battery life to. :)
Your statement depends on an assumption that General Relativity is correct above the speed of light. An assumption for which there is less proof than .. astrology, geocentric solar system, hollow Earth theory, flat Earth theory, Biblical creationism, Barney the dinosaur... Above the speed of light general relativity defines a universe with no spatial stability, and that only makes sense in a universe that is a simulation or otherwise doesn't exist.. The only type of FTL theory that does work logically is an absolute frame model, and that requires an FTL simultaneity. An FTL simultaneity rules out general relativity categorically..
In a universe like that FTL travel is possible. (or at least not categorically impossible)
Its basic engineering. You need to consider and have plans for as many worst case scenarios as possible, while at the same time maintaining a positive good position vis spurious fault events. So agree with you totally..
Yep when the say 'unconventional' what they mean is gay.. This bill is form the voice of the UK Taliban, whether feminazis or con-servatives or Christian police fundamentalists its all the same. They hate sex, they hate sex that isn't in the missionary position between married couples. They want sex tucked back into the dirty Victorian cupboard so they can get on and start having rape sex with the child prostitutes like they did back in Victorian London. They also like-need it illegal because that's another of their kinks. :D
The British police are a lizard like species. They hate our filthy 'human' ways.
An Indian appeared but he worked for Microsoft technical support.
I have a sex thing for gingers. I suppose that would be 'unconventional' sex. Or being UK conservatives its any sex that doesn't involve the husband beating his wife first... :D
True. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. (assuming its analogue)
So do biscuits. Biscuits also kill far more than terrorism in most countries including the UK. Unless you live in Iraq or Afghanistan. Terrorism is the flea that roars like a lion.
With Islamic terrorism the best analogy is probably a hydra. How do you fight a hydra? 'Keep cutting the head(s) off.' seems to be the only strategy we have.., which is why we will still be fighting it in twenty or thirty years. Now with Trump encouraging proliferation in twenty or thirty years we might be seeing Islamic terrorists with atomic bombs. That is the time to get properly scared.. :D
So your unhappy that Brexit might drain some energy out of the Kleptocracy that drives London? London has become a vast parasitic tick sucking the economic lifeblood out of the rest of the country and making this place a distorted extreme of rich and poor. Banking makes over 50 - 60 billion profit a year - but most of that money is drained out of real companies and the real economy first, a lot of the rest comes from money laundering for foreign tax dodgers and other forms international of dodgy dealing..
London has been the biggest beneficiary of the EU while the rest of the country has slowly been going down hill economically. That is why most of London voted to stay in but most of the rest of the country voted to leave.. The major thing that really connects it to Trump is that the rest of the UK has been London's rust belt for far too long.
Don't worry about it your still living in a state of delusion. The EU is a system that is inevitably heading towards its own destruction. It is the big ship yes but there are thirty captains and they are at constant war with each other and even when they do make a decision it can take up to ten years to steer. In short its a hopeless labyrinth of incompetent bureaucracy. It is slowly suffocating and crushing freedom and democracy throughout Europe, at the top it is driven by corruption and seething incompetence and it is intolerant of dissent.
The US isn't always a very good democracy either for exactly the same reasons - too big. Not a country so much as a continent of country sized semi-independent states that are often in conflict with each other... and for the most part the US does it better than the EU..
I hate to point this out but I believe there have been something like a dozen attempts since 7/7. I hate to say it but the only reason the UK hasn't been hit again is due to mass surveillance. . Otherwise I totally agree with you.. :)