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Keep that don't have google's dick in their mouths. Google needs to die in a fire.

  They are exposed as the fraud as they are. Android is losing market share and they are . Good riddance!

Take a look at these three pictures:.. Sales do not lie.

No but Tomi does lie. By February 2011 Nokia's market share was down to 23.1% from the summer high of 33%. The graph is simple false. As for the picture about 1 for 1 replacement no one from Nokia has ever said that was the intent. They knew it was impossible.

They might've lost a bit of market share, but it would have paid off quite handsomely, especially with Meego.

MeeGo was a failed product. There was no viable path forward with MeeGo as Nokia had promised conflicting things. We've had multiple people who attended the meetings with Elop concur with his choice to abandon MeeGo because the problems in the design were unfixable. If you want an example of a company that followed the MeeGo strategy: RIM. They worked through their OS issues losing another year and thus constantly playing catch up while they burned cash.

Why they choose WinPhone I do not know.

Well I do know because both Elop and the Chairman of the board and others from Google, Microsoft etc... have said so publicly.
1) Since around 2002 Nokia had been allowing their margins to slip. While they were selling large numbers of phones they weren't making money under best case. Once problems hit they were a financial basket case.

2) It became clear in 2010 that Nokia was going to have problems putting out MeeGo phones in reasonable quantities all the way till 2014. At their burn rate they would have gone bankrupt regardless of how successful those 4 phones were.

3) So they needed either:
a) drastically restructure the company. Which meant large 1x expenses that Nokia didn't have the cash for
b) get their sales back up to previous levels.

4) Elop was hired to deal with the mess that OKP had left behind.
5) Elop approached Google offering them a Nokia exclusive in exchange for competitive advantages. Without advantages Nokia would have been competing with Asian manufacturers to produce phones and with their lower cost of financing, lower cost of parts and lower costs of construction they couldn't win. Google wasn't interested.
6) Elop then approached Microsoft. Microsoft agreed to not only give them competitive advantages but also direct cash subsidies to offset a chunk of the cost of restructuring.

WinPhone will have a hell of a hard time to reach even double-digit market share. Right now it's flatlined.

No it hasn't. Marketshare is up in virtually every market vs. 3 or 6 months ago. And certainly hugely up vs. 2 years ago.
http://www.kantarworldpanel.co...

Seriously don't listen to Tomi he is both clueless and dishonest. There is no source I know of you'd get worse information from.

Lack of popularity in the USA FTFY

Android phones far outsell iPhones in Japan. See these charts as just one example http://kakaku.com/keitai/smart...

kakaku.com is a price comparison site and its popularity ranking is based on page views and not sales. It is a testimony to iPhone's popularity in Japan that a product without a need for price comparison still rank that high on price comparison site's list. As for sales number, let's go to the people who actually studies and publish those kind of number:

In Japan, consumers' desire for all things Apple continued into the final quarter of 2013, with iOS taking 68.7% share of smartphone sales.

Android has 72% market share in 5 major EU countries (Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy). Source: http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/dwl.php?sn=news_downloads&id=326
iOS only has 15%.

What I am saying that Nokia's collapse was not due to the adoption of WP, it was due to the fact the market changed and Nokia was not prepared. WP affected how it collapsed but it was not the reason why it collapsed.

Nokia were left with a portfolio of products that still had sales momentum, but sales were declining and would continue to decline unless they released a viable competitor. Maybe Meego could have worked, we'll never know now, Ahonen aside, there are enough ex-Nokia voices saying that the whole internal management at Nokia was horribly broken and they were never going to produce a viable platform in time.

The point is Elop couldn't do nothing. Choosing WP certainly brought on the decline much more rapidly than the lingering death Nokia would probably have suffered, but Nokia now has a modern portfolio of smartphone products that are increasing rapidly in popularity and their overall sales are second only to Samsung as shown by Table 3 here

As a result, he is odds-on favourite to become the new CEO

That said, your second point is exactly right. It's in nobody's interests (except these three shareholders) to put Microsoft in the hands of these asset stripping vampires.

As opposed to what they're doing now, with a series of products nobody is buying and for which they're taking huge write downs?

Keep up

Windows Phone/Nokia is actually pretty quite well outside the US.

Worldwide Windows Phones has reached the dizzying heights of 3.8% I wouldn't put too much truck in Kantar Worldpanel here is an earlier report http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/news-articles/Apple-achieves-its-highest-ever-Smartphone-share-in-US it claims that Apple overtook Android over Christmas in the US. It turned out to be a load of nonsense.

What reason is there to believe that the numbers will change significantly in that time? All of the math seems to indicate that that's extremely unlikely.

Based on the numbers I provided in my last post, to simply match iOS' developer revenue through your method (achieving marketplace dominance), Android will need to quadruple their number of users without allowing Apple to pick up any of that growth. To put that in perspective, quadrupling their number of users while Apple remains static would mean increasing their U.S. market share from where it's at now at 50% to about 80%. For reference, the study I linked indicates Android has grown 1.4% year-over-year, so a gain of thirty percentage points seems unlikely in the next two years. The study also indicates that iOS grew 1.8% year-over-year, meaning, assuming all other factors remained stable, that iOS actually increased its share of the developer revenue pie in the last year.

Of course, the growth could come from emerging markets, rather than in an established one, but the problem with that is that those emerging markets tend to be even more cost-conscious than the ones that Android is already in, meaning that the per capita value of their users will decrease even further as they acquire more of them, meaning that quadrupling their sales wouldn't even be enough. So, let's set aside the idea that Android can overtake Apple's developer revenues by simply outselling them, since that idea seems extremely unlikely.

They can also win a larger share of the developer revenue pie by reducing Apple's market share. Unfortunately, they'd need to eliminate 3/4 of Apple's customers to do that, and polls have consistently indicated that iOS users are the most satisfied and most loyal in the industry, so that's a tall order. In fact, while I'd definitely take it with a massive grain of salt, a major analyst has concluded that iOS will overtake Android within the timeframe you've specified, based on a year-long poll they conducted that looked at planned purchases and loyalty to the platform.

And finally, as I already alluded to, a third option would be to increase the collective spending of their users and advertisers by a factor of four. The problem is that most consumers are cheap, and Android's market share growth has largely been fueled by catering to those folks through offers of free devices with the promise of free apps. By attracting users who are less willing to spend both on apps and products being advertised, they're reducing the per capita value of each of their users, but if they try to initiate a cultural change to attract high-end customers, they'll do so at the cost of market share as they eliminate the things that attracted their current customers in the first place. And, as I said earlier, it's extremely difficult to maintain even their current level of value per user while also expanding to include new users, since the users that are left tend to be the less valuable ones.

Honest question: is there something obvious I'm missing? I just don't see how Android can create a 4x improvement in revenues while Apple holds still, whether through market dominance, as you suggested, or some other means, nor do I believe it to be likely that they can reduced Apple's revenues by 3/4.

I'll match your citation with mine. According to Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, iOS was the top-selling platform in Q4 2012, maintaining 51.2% of the market.

So either your data is wrong or mine is.

...no even at your Worldpanel ComTech this is from last week. "With nearly half (49.3%) of smartphone sales, Android remains the top selling operating system, but saw only slight growth compared to the same period last year, and is down versus the 3 months ending February 2013 (-1.9%). iOS remains in second place with 43.7% of smartphone sales, down throughout Q1 2013." http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/Windows-sees-steady-growth-in-Q1-2013

Look everyone agrees Apple is number 2

I'll match your citation with mine. According to Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, iOS was the top-selling platform in Q4 2012, maintaining 51.2% of the market.

So either your data is wrong or mine is.

...no even at your Worldpanel ComTech this is from last week. "With nearly half (49.3%) of smartphone sales, Android remains the top selling operating system, but saw only slight growth compared to the same period last year, and is down versus the 3 months ending February 2013 (-1.9%). iOS remains in second place with 43.7% of smartphone sales, down throughout Q1 2013." http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/Windows-sees-steady-growth-in-Q1-2013

Look everyone agrees Apple is number 2

I'll match your citation with mine. According to Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, iOS was the top-selling platform in Q4 2012, maintaining 51.2% of the market.

So either your data is wrong or mine is.

Why are all the screenshots from iPhones?

Android phones account for 51.2% of smartphone sales, with iPhones trailing at 43.5% [1].

So how likely is it that out of a sample of 10 screenshots, all 10 of them would be from iPhones? Seems suspicious.

[1] http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/Android-Sprint-and-Samsung-Increased-Share-In-Early-2013

Because you need to be an idiot to send such SMS to your parents.

Turns out idiots mostly use iPhone. Go figure.

Why are all the screenshots from iPhones?

Android phones account for 51.2% of smartphone sales, with iPhones trailing at 43.5% [1].

So how likely is it that out of a sample of 10 screenshots, all 10 of them would be from iPhones? Seems suspicious.

[1] http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/Android-Sprint-and-Samsung-Increased-Share-In-Early-2013

Ordinary, non-Slashdot people don't know how to take a screenshot on Android.

Seriously, it's a pain in the ass.

More importantly, Android phones are given away free or at low cost, so every Grandma has one and their market share is thus much higher. Look at any non-anecdotal measure of usage (data, app sales, web hits) and iOS dwarfs Android.

Why are all the screenshots from iPhones?

Android phones account for 51.2% of smartphone sales, with iPhones trailing at 43.5% [1].

So how likely is it that out of a sample of 10 screenshots, all 10 of them would be from iPhones? Seems suspicious.

[1] http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/Android-Sprint-and-Samsung-Increased-Share-In-Early-2013

Nerval's Lobster writes

"Last week, research firm IDC issued a report suggesting that Windows Phone shipments exceeded those of the iPhone in seven countries around the world, including Argentina, India, Poland, and Russia. The data startled some people Daring Fireball's John Gruber, for example, blogged his skepticism. As the story gained a bit more momentum, The New York Times' Nick Wingfield reached out to IDC analyst Kevin Restivo for a bit more clarification: 'IDC's numbers also reflect only the official number of cellphones imported into the countries,' he wrote. 'Mr. Restivo said that in some countries, like Argentina, high government taxes mean there is a very significant gray market in cellphones, which IDC doesn't track.' Now new survey data from Kantar Worldpanel suggests that Windows Phone is indeed gaining some sort of momentum in some parts of the world: Android was responsible for 51.2 percent of smartphone sales in the U.S. for the quarter ended February 2013, followed in second by Apple's iOS with 43.5 percent, with Windows Phone edging up into third place with 4.1 percent. BlackBerry trailed in fourth with 0.7 percent, down significantly from its 3.6 percent market-share last year. That doesn't mean that Windows Phone will prove any sort of champion in the near term, but maybe the platform isn't totally on life support."

[cough]iPhone snags its highest U.S. market share ever[/cough]

Hrmm... that's weird: Checks cnet article, "the research firm pegged Apple's U.S. smartphone share at 53.3 percent"
Ok where's that source: Follows to sub article, "Apple has achieved its highest ever share in the US (53.3%) in the latest 12 weeks"
Ok where's the actual data: No, link. Checks google. Oh here's the actual data, "This data is exclusively focused on the sales within this 12 week period rather than market share figures." http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/news-articles/US-iOS-Maintains-Lead-Among-US-Smartphone-OS-Sales
Checks dates: Ok so the 12 weeks directly after the iPhone 5 release saw 53% of smart phone sales being iPhones.

Ok so cnet is calling percentage of sales in a 12 week period directly after a the iPhone 5 launch 'market share', while the data it quotes from states that this is not market share. Aside from the dishonesty in cnets reporting that's still kinda impressive.

The iPhone is unsuccessful? Apple has 53.3% of the smartphone market:

LOL in the US...worldwide it had dropped from 23% to 14.9%. This is original report for your figures http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/Apple-achieves-its-highest-ever-Smartphone-share-in-US they are on in a pdf but include figures like in Brazil Apple dropping from 3.2% to 1.6% while Android moves from 28.9% to 60.7% of the market.

Apple market share falling.

http://www.idownloadblog.com/2011/11/15/ios-loses-market-android-recent-quarter/

Update: http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/Global/News/Soaring-iPhone-5-sales-in-US-knock-Android-into-second-place

Also, many people in the US might be waiting for their contracts to expire before moving to an Android phone from the iPhone.

Perhaps. But there's this: http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/Global/News/Soaring-iPhone-5-sales-in-US-knock-Android-into-second-place

Must be opposite day for you: http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/Global/News/Soaring-iPhone-5-sales-in-US-knock-Android-into-second-place

Um, no: http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/Global/News/Soaring-iPhone-5-sales-in-US-knock-Android-into-second-place

http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/Global/News/Apple-achieves-its-highest-ever-Smartphone-share-in-US

Yeah... they are in the decline.

I wonder how of those people feel that way because they believe that the higher cost means it must be the best product they could have purchased.

While you are correct that there is a tendency for some people to rationalize a poor buying decision, and certainly agree about the rampant insanity of many "audiophiles", you would be equally incorrect to assume that is the main reason why Apple has been so wildly successful.

In the end, people have to use these things, and I can assure you that there would have long ago been a mass-exodus away from Apple products if there was something fundamentally wrong with them.

And "cachet" might get you the first Apple sale for a particular customer; but for most of them, it wouldn't go past that, and that's not the typical pattern.

I have used plenty of brands of computer and consumer-electronic equipment in my nearly 40 years' experience with same, and with absolutely zero exceptions, in those areas where Apple competes, their products are consistently head-and-shoulders above the others in terms of build quality, attention to detail, longevity, and overall "user experience".

Apple has the top sellers in the U.S. in the product areas of notebooks and (consumer) desktops, music players, tablets and (relative to any other single brand) smartphones. Do you really think they got there, especially in this weak economy, on cachet?

By withholding Google maps app they are able to slow adoption of iPhone 5 and other newer Apple hardware which is not available with older iOS.

Then it's not working, since these guys have iPhone 5 outselling all android models combined in the last 4-week period.

Granted, single source, etc. Just interesting data is all.

Huh... well look at that...

http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/Global/News/Soaring-iPhone-5-sales-in-US-knock-Android-into-second-place