Domain: uic.com.au
Stories and comments across the archive that link to uic.com.au.
Comments · 131
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Re:Hardly dangerous
I strongly disagree. The Chernobyl explosion and resulting contamination was not designed to disperse radioactive material. It did a fairly good job of doing that *anyway*. I agree that the predicted effects are fortunately much less (20 years later) than previously predicted, but it was nonetheless extremely effective at effecting FEAR and Terror into that portion of the World. If Terrorists with high explosives expertise also had access to MORE deadly radioactive substances than Chernobyl contained, that would be VERY SCARY.
Terrorists are likely more interested the FEAR and the sensationalized terrifying concept of "Nuclear Fallout" rather than the actual scientific effects of such a dirty radiological High Explosive dispersion device (AKA Dirty Bomb).
Terrorists may actually target key water and food supplies or river systems with radiological explosive dispersion devices.
Any primary "Dirty Bomb" Victims that inhale, eat, drink, or consume into their bodies ANY energetically decaying radioisotopes (especially ones with relatively short half-lives) will have an *almost certain chance* of developing lung and/or bone cancers.
Plutonium-238, curium-244, strontium-90, polonium-210, promethium-147, cesium-137, cerium-144, ruthenium-106, cobalt-60, curium-242, and thulium isotopes all can produce oncogenic, teratogenic, and mutagenic effects on the human body (especially if ingested or inhaled). This happens if the initial exposure does not kill the primary victims.
In any case, it is very very unlikely that a citizen jury of peers would consider the passive monitoring of specific "hot" radioisotopes by US authorities to be a violation of the 4th Amendment's "unreasonable searches and seizures".
NOBODY should have any of the above in their possession unless they are professionals and they would have clearly marked DOT placards on their commercial vehicles as well as DOT, NRC (and probably DOE) approved possession and transportation paperwork and approved containment vessels. http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/teachers/11.pdf
Also, they would have to follow controlled HC (Hazardous Cargo) approved routes within the US highway system. http://orise.orau.gov/reacts/guide/hazard.htm
I agree that it is interesting some animal and human cancer patients (and other radiologically medicated persons) have been flagged "hot" by roadside sensors and detained by authorities. It is likely that those same sensors can determine the quantity and difference between the americium-241 (one gram is enough for 5000 smoke detectors) from the other more dangerous materials no civilian should never have. http://www.uic.com.au/nip35.htm
I am a US citizen, and I DO feel better knowing that these things ARE being actively screened for by our government. It would be terribly irresponsible for our government to NOT look for radioactive substances if technology would allow it to conducted as unobtrusively as it is from the side of a PUBLIC highway or port of entry. Americans don't have a right to own dangerous radioactive components.
OTOH, if they decide to screen for GUNS in the US... that's a Second Amendment right we DO have... and whole other issue. -
Re:Hm...Interesting.
You -DO- know that this is the primary source of energy in France, as well as in other countries like Lithuania, Belgium, and Slovakia, right? If it is so horribly inefficient, would those countries rely on it for their primary source of energy?- http://www.uic.com.au/nip28.htm
- http://www.uic.com.au/nip08.htm
- http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/reaction/readings/french.html
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France
- http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/nuc_generation/gensum2.html
You also know that world use of nuclear energy is growing and is substantial, right? -
Re:Hm...Interesting.
You -DO- know that this is the primary source of energy in France, as well as in other countries like Lithuania, Belgium, and Slovakia, right? If it is so horribly inefficient, would those countries rely on it for their primary source of energy?- http://www.uic.com.au/nip28.htm
- http://www.uic.com.au/nip08.htm
- http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/reaction/readings/french.html
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France
- http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/nuc_generation/gensum2.html
You also know that world use of nuclear energy is growing and is substantial, right? -
Re:Hm...Interesting.
You -DO- know that this is the primary source of energy in France, as well as in other countries like Lithuania, Belgium, and Slovakia, right? If it is so horribly inefficient, would those countries rely on it for their primary source of energy?- http://www.uic.com.au/nip28.htm
- http://www.uic.com.au/nip08.htm
- http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/reaction/readings/french.html
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France
- http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/nuc_generation/gensum2.html
You also know that world use of nuclear energy is growing and is substantial, right? -
Re:Nuclear power only cheap using Dubya fuzzy mathSomething like this: In USA, utilities are collecting 0.1 to 0.2 cents/kWh to fund decommissioning. They must then report regularly to the NRC on the status of their decommissioning funds. As of 2001, $23.7 billion of the total estimated cost of decommissioning all US nuclear power plants had been collected, leaving a liability of about $11.6 billion to be covered over the operating lives of 104 reactors (on basis of average $320 million per unit). http://www.uic.com.au/nip13.htm
Except with a "B" -
Re:Money well spend?
Start by reading this:
http://www.uic.com.au/nip08.htm It cites $0.0172/kW-hr for nuclear and $0.0221/kW-hr for coal. And because this raises a common question about waste costs, I'm quoting this line from the article, "For nuclear power plants any cost figures normally include spent fuel management, plant decommissioning and final waste disposal. These costs, while usually external for other technologies, are internal for nuclear power."
Please note this is by the Nuclear Energy Institute, which by policy promotes nuclear power. However, I am unaware of figures that deviate significantly from theirs. -
Re:Numbers
http://www.vestas.com/en/about-vestas/sustainability/wind-turbines-and-the-environment/life-cycle-assessment-(lca) There is a pdf at the bottom about the V80 onshore and offshore. Not a lot of money details since they will vary between locations and countries, but it does cover a lot of the other details.
Overall, cost of wind power vs other power sources vary a lot depending on who's talking about it and that's if they're in the same country.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4631737.stm
Here's some nuclear vs the rest economics.
http://www.uic.com.au/nip08.htm -
Re:Wind Turbines are the Easy Way
Actually, the most obvious way to get past petroleum is not dirty, insecure, expensive nukes, but clean, safe, cheap wind turbines.
Taking a look at some actual facts doesn't seem to support your contention, at least as to expense. I suspect the danger level (especially if you count birds and such) is much higher for wind generation as well.
Don't get me wrong: I'm not against wind turbines -- but I think you're overstating what are really rather modest advantages, at least at the present time. -
Re:Unfortunately...
All I can say though is I hope we can easily convert fission nuke plants to fusion when we perfect it cuz fission isn't going to last much longer.
As several posts (including one of mine) have pointed out, fission can be used for quite a while (even if you don't take breeder reactors into account). Converting a fission plant to a fusion plant would be interesting. Basically, the reactor itself would almost certainly be scrapped entirely. The turbines and generators, OTOH, wouldn't generally care whether the steam was produced by fusion or fission, so they could probably remain more or less intact.
Interestingly, when/if you actually look carefully at the history of accidents (and near-accidents) in nuclear power plants, most of the problems are surprisingly mundane. In fact, it looks like a lot of the problems are basically mechanical -- things like building a steam valve that simply opens and closes dependably for years at a time, even though the steam involved is at high pressure and temperature (e.g. ~300 degrees C and 2000+ PSI). Quite a bit of research has been done into temperatures and pressures of primary coolants (near the bottom of the page).
Even if a repair is strictly in the steam part of the plant (where nuclear radiation isn't a problem) it can take months to cool hundreds of tons of steel, concrete, etc., down from its normal operating temperature to the point that a person can enter and work on something. This makes the cost of repairs so high that the system must be engineered to run for years (preferably decades) at a time without them. -
Re:In other words...
She does not mention the dead city,
That still have people living around it.
and the thousands of people who died from cancers in surrounding areas.
That would have happened even without the accident. Cancer is one of the leading causes of death today, Chernobyl or no Chernobyl. Cancer rates have been worse for several neighboring areas with not particularly clean chemical production facilities.
She has exactly zero credibility.
Because she isn't quoting numbers that you like? She specifically mentions in the article that the accident wouldn't have had the nasty effects if it'd had a containment structure like what's required in western nations.
She also doesn't mention the huge cost per MWh of nuke, and ignores methods (that do really exist!) for "green" replacement of baseload.
Name some. Nuclear power is estimated at $1-2 per watt today, 90% capacity factor. -
Re:yay free market
High energy radio active waste is an energy source. The vast majority of this so called waste is fuel. We extract around 2% of the available energy because that's the cheep part but the idea of high energy waste is silly if it's really hot then we can extract energy from it. If it's going to be around for million's of years then it's safe.
Read up on breeder reactors and take a real look at this issue.
The other issue is the extreme levels nuke plants are regulated. For an idea just how silly this is: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CE2DA1F3AF935A15751C1A966958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=print
http://www.uic.com.au/ral.htm
PS: I seem to recall an issue where the concrete was producing more radiation than the "acceptable dose" before the plant went into operation. I can't find the details but background radiation is often well above the "acceptable" level inside a power plant and nobody bothers to tell people living in the area. -
Re:Clean nuclear waste
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Re:Nuclear is just like Coal
I have a few quick responses to your response:
Cooling: this is not necessarily inherent to either. Cooling can also be accomplished via evaporation or (not really economically at that scale) air heat exchangers.
Uranium emissions: I'm not convinced this is a big issue with coal either because uranium is only barely radioactive, although the decay products are more radioactive (think radon). USGS says the radiation exposure to resident within 1 km of a coal plant is 1 to 5% above background levels, and I've heard similar numbers for nuclear. However, in nuclear, the waste is generally carefully contained as opposed to released into the air. Also, since you mentioned it specifically, Iodine-131 has a half life of 8 days. It's radioactivity decreases by 99.9% every 3 months.
Carbon from concrete: The GP's numbers state 3.7 million tons of CO2 per year from a 500 MW coal plant. In contrast, the Crystal River Nuclear Plant (one of the newest in the nation) produces 838 MW and used about 220,000 tons of concrete. Production of cement releases about 0.9 pounds of CO2 for every pound of cement, but concrete is only about 10% cement, so Crystal River reduces emissions by 99.4% compared to coal. Furthermore, CO2 is released during production, but absorbed as the concrete cures. Recent studies suggest that within 100 years after concrete is disposed of, as it would be after reactor retirement, it has reabsorbed 86% of the original CO2 emitted.
Running out of fuel: The 85 year number only accounts for known, currently economical reserves. The IAEA estimates the unidentified reserves extend that to over 200 years of supply. Additionally, it completely ignores expansion of reprocessing practices. Quote: "Widespread use of the fast breeder reactor could increase the utilisation of uranium 50-fold or more." It also ignores the use of thorium, which is 3 times as abundant as uranium. -
Re:Cost
I'm pretty sure building a new coal or natural gas isn't pocket change, either... With a 8-10X reduction in cost of production, I think you'll make up a few hundred million well before the lifespan of the powerplant expires.
No, nuclear is capital-intensive compared to fossil. Most studies I see show coal having a "slight" advantage overall, but there are a lot of factors that go into determining what's best for a specific region.You may be interested in this summary of Fossil vs Nuclear cost studies, among others.
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Re:Location, Location, Location
Regarding the cost of wind versus nuclear power (coincidentally, I was just reading NREL's annual report on wind energy the other day): While wind costs about $1.50/Watt (your number was right for 2005) to install, it has a much lower capacity factor; how much it generates on average divided by how much it could generate if it were possible to run at rated load 100% of the time.
The best wind farms have capacity factors around 0.35. US Nuclear plants have a capacity factor of 0.87 on average (1999 number...and remember this is from a previous generation of designs). So adjusting for the capacity factor in capital costs, that works out to be $4.30/Watt for wind and $2.50/Watt for the GE ABWR. Of course, wind has a bonus of extremely low operating costs, but it can not be adjusted to demand, which is one of the main factors that relegates it to a minor role in the US power portfolio. It doesn't matter how many windmills you have if the weather is calm.
I expect anyone with concerns about nuclear power will sensibly mention decommissioning costs. These are now factored into the project at the beginning, and the NRC requires utilities to report their decommissioning fund status. Typically it's equivalent to roughly $0.50/W of capacity (source). Also, all of the GE PBWR's that have been built have been on-budget and on-time, which was one of the reasons this design was chosen, so I wouldn't expect huge unplanned costs to start appearing.
Additionally, a 5 meter sea rise is at the silly extreme end of predictions. The IPCC's estimate (from your link) is half a meter for the century. Regardless, while this could cause operability concerns, I could hardly imagine it causing any added danger of radioactive release, and the sea level rise would be observable over a period of decades.
A last point I'd like to present is that roughly half of the US nuclear power plants, representing 10% of our nation's power production and 10 times our entire installed wind capacity, are scheduled to reach the end of their operating licenses over the next few years. They are going to need to be replaced somehow or another, in addition to meeting the growing demand. Currently most utilities are planning on doing this with coal. -
Try English Next Time.... Also, You're Wrong.
If I'm understanding your post correctly, you have two main gripes here.
First, you think comparing deaths involved with the admittedly dangerous process of extracting and transporting coal to operating a power plant isn't fair? Why not, exactly? If you want to compare the two industries fairly, you would need to tally ALL accidents at all points in the fuel cycle, otherwise it isn't really fair.
Total deaths in the coal cycle (mining/transport/accidents/etc): 10,000-15,000/year
Total deaths involving nuclear power (transport/disposal/accidents/etc): less than 100 EVER, including TMI (zero injuries) and Chernobyl (56)
That doesn't even include the mentioned estimates for direct deaths from coal pollution (30,000-1,000,000/year).
How is that not fair, exactly?
The second point I think you're trying to make is that you've heard FUD about the nuclear power cycle having higher CO2 emissions. Well, that's just wrong. Do a quick google search and you'll see nothing but proof against that. For example:
http://www.uic.com.au/ComparativeCO2.htm
And they even have a nice graph if it's tl;dr:
http://www.uic.com.au/graphics/CO2.gif
You should note that nuclear even has lower emissions than solar, hydro, and wind power. -
Try English Next Time.... Also, You're Wrong.
If I'm understanding your post correctly, you have two main gripes here.
First, you think comparing deaths involved with the admittedly dangerous process of extracting and transporting coal to operating a power plant isn't fair? Why not, exactly? If you want to compare the two industries fairly, you would need to tally ALL accidents at all points in the fuel cycle, otherwise it isn't really fair.
Total deaths in the coal cycle (mining/transport/accidents/etc): 10,000-15,000/year
Total deaths involving nuclear power (transport/disposal/accidents/etc): less than 100 EVER, including TMI (zero injuries) and Chernobyl (56)
That doesn't even include the mentioned estimates for direct deaths from coal pollution (30,000-1,000,000/year).
How is that not fair, exactly?
The second point I think you're trying to make is that you've heard FUD about the nuclear power cycle having higher CO2 emissions. Well, that's just wrong. Do a quick google search and you'll see nothing but proof against that. For example:
http://www.uic.com.au/ComparativeCO2.htm
And they even have a nice graph if it's tl;dr:
http://www.uic.com.au/graphics/CO2.gif
You should note that nuclear even has lower emissions than solar, hydro, and wind power. -
Re:feasible
for reference, i'm referring to the newer, more sleekly designed turbines than the older scaffold-looking eyesores (i'll agree with you there)
given an estimated total build cost of $1.60/watt, that's roughly equivalent to nuclear, but without all of the ongoing costs of large security forces, fuel cycles, decommissioning, and all of the nasty waste left over. let's not forget that uranium is getting more expensive and the spent fuel is piling up.
Now, i'm not anti-nuclear, in fact i think we should be building breeders as fast as wen can, but to discount wind, which is economically similar to nuclear in build cost per watt, is cheaper to maintain, and doesn't have a lot of the nasty side effects because of someone as subjective as "it's ugly".... seems silly to me>
how pretty are a bunch more nuclear reactors all over the place?
how much beautiful habitat will your kids miss out on because there's a power plant there?
how much land will be restricted from your babies eyes because of the countless acres around the waste storage facility that are cordoned off for national security?
wind turbines can be put right where power is needed if the location has a steady breeze, the're high enough off the ground that the land underneath is still usable for farming or.... whatever.
it's not nearly as ugly as it used to be, is it really worth discounting? -
Re:Standards!
As for costs - you can't just conveniently ignore capital costs.
Who says that I'm ignoring them? Referenced site is for European power, and nuclear comes in cheaper at 23.7 E/MWh, vs 28.1 for coal. That's including capital costs, but not including CO2 tax, which raises coal to 44.3.
If you could hydro, wind, solar etc would win every time even in those places where it would be a stupid idea or where the capital costs are far too large for the return.
In the USA, hydro is considered 'overutilized' IE we can't install much more hydro power without negative ecological effects. Solar is orders of magnitude more expensive. A recent thread showed that they expected costs to be $300 million for a 40MW plant. Ten plants and you haven't even gotten half a GW, yet for the same capital you could have 3GW of nuclear plant going. Even wind has limited areas where it's truly usefull - You need a fairly strong and steady wind for it to work, and areas like that aren't everywhere. While you can ship power a long ways, you try to limit that.
Personally, I find the pebble bed to be missing a couple points - Personally, I want the fuel to be easy to recycle, or better yet burned more or less completely in the reactor, such as an IFR(yes, more research needed).
The mainstream is just chasing taxpayer supplied pork. If they were after more than a handout they would be putting in some effort - instead they spend orders of magnitaude in PR, advertising and outright bribes than R&D.
Hmmm.... Haven't seem much PR. Sure, there's a number of websites, but that's peanuts in comparison with nuclear research costs. On the other hand, at least in the USA they need the PR. NIMBY, nuke scares and outright stupidity* have stopped plant construction for years(well, high interest rates for a while helped). Today, they should be able to get lower interest rate loans, which makes the whole thing much more affordable.
As for the research, you do realize that we've managed to keep increasing the power produced by our reactors to the point it's been like building three new plants a decade?
and the "new generation" designs from companies like Westinghouse are just tweaked 1950s designs painted green.
In some ways that's like saying a Ford Focus is a Model-T painted green. The new generation designs, while still using the same basic technology, are far safer, more productive, and hopefully cheaper to build, since one of the 'safety' features was design simplification; fewer parts that can break.
*Why are we trying to build a million year shelter for stuff that's still 90+% fuel? -
Re:Standards!
As for costs - you can't just conveniently ignore capital costs.
Who says that I'm ignoring them? Referenced site is for European power, and nuclear comes in cheaper at 23.7 E/MWh, vs 28.1 for coal. That's including capital costs, but not including CO2 tax, which raises coal to 44.3.
If you could hydro, wind, solar etc would win every time even in those places where it would be a stupid idea or where the capital costs are far too large for the return.
In the USA, hydro is considered 'overutilized' IE we can't install much more hydro power without negative ecological effects. Solar is orders of magnitude more expensive. A recent thread showed that they expected costs to be $300 million for a 40MW plant. Ten plants and you haven't even gotten half a GW, yet for the same capital you could have 3GW of nuclear plant going. Even wind has limited areas where it's truly usefull - You need a fairly strong and steady wind for it to work, and areas like that aren't everywhere. While you can ship power a long ways, you try to limit that.
Personally, I find the pebble bed to be missing a couple points - Personally, I want the fuel to be easy to recycle, or better yet burned more or less completely in the reactor, such as an IFR(yes, more research needed).
The mainstream is just chasing taxpayer supplied pork. If they were after more than a handout they would be putting in some effort - instead they spend orders of magnitaude in PR, advertising and outright bribes than R&D.
Hmmm.... Haven't seem much PR. Sure, there's a number of websites, but that's peanuts in comparison with nuclear research costs. On the other hand, at least in the USA they need the PR. NIMBY, nuke scares and outright stupidity* have stopped plant construction for years(well, high interest rates for a while helped). Today, they should be able to get lower interest rate loans, which makes the whole thing much more affordable.
As for the research, you do realize that we've managed to keep increasing the power produced by our reactors to the point it's been like building three new plants a decade?
and the "new generation" designs from companies like Westinghouse are just tweaked 1950s designs painted green.
In some ways that's like saying a Ford Focus is a Model-T painted green. The new generation designs, while still using the same basic technology, are far safer, more productive, and hopefully cheaper to build, since one of the 'safety' features was design simplification; fewer parts that can break.
*Why are we trying to build a million year shelter for stuff that's still 90+% fuel? -
Re:Whither predictions?
Why isn't the electric utility installing large solar panels to generate electricity during peak hours? Because that takes more money than burning fossil fuels in power plants?
Exactly. Burning fossil fuels in power plants is an extremely cheap method of power. It can generate power at a cost of ~4cents/kwh. Nuclear is something like 3.9 average. This includes production and capital costs, from the chart on this page(scroll down), actual production costs are only ~2 cents, with nuclear edging below coal in 2000.
What kills solar is the install cost. There was an article about a canadian plant on slasdot recently, they were expecting it to cost $300 million for 40MW. Now, $300 million at 5% interest is 15 million a year. That's capital cost. I estimate that it'd produce 140 million kwh* a year. That's 10.7 cents per kwh for the capital costs alone, this does not include any plant costs.
10.7 cents vs. 4 cents? Tough sell
They could get creative e.g. leasing rooftop space from homeowners.
That would be a huge hassle, as they'd then be liable for everybody's roofs whenever a good storm comes through, as well as having to worry about climbing on 10k roofs to make repairs. It ends up being cheaper to buy property out somewhere and building a massive plant. Building owners can make it pay for such small installs because they're paying retail for electricity, not wholesale. Personally, I'd be installing a solar water heating system, preferably capable of heating the house as well. That's currently far more economical. Doesn't take much roof space either. If solar panels were a tenth of their current cost, it'd make far more sense.
*40MW plant, 40% load factor -
Re:Comment about Freshman Democrat Mitchell
Not sure about GP's claim of 3000% but the general idea is correct. Electricity from oil does cost much more than nuclear.
See for example http://www.uic.com.au/nip08.htm where US costs per kWh are stated as 8 cents for oil and 2 cents for nuclear. For a country that can purify their own uranium, the costs would be 0.2 cents per kWh (US currently does not operate any centrifuges, just a single antiquated, underpowered and highly inefficient diffusion facility; we have to pay high import costs for our uranium fuel, hence the 2 cents quote, which is still cheaper than coal at 4 cents)
Currently, Iran is operating at their maximum extraction capacity, which means that they have to chose between exporting their oil, or burning it up, losing $50/bl. The costs of building fossil- or nuclear-stoked plants is about the same (actually less for nuclear). Also, Iran has massive uranium ore deposits that are essentially free for the taking, so it's a no-brainer that they want to invest into nuclear.
Hence on their face value, Iranian claims of wanting nuclear technology for power production are credible.
Of course, a nuclear reactor has multiple other benefits, such as stimulating research, producing radioactive isotopes, and even allowing for development of dual-use technology (nuclear weapons). -
Re:energy payback, sw, the monetary payback....
Nuclear power is around 2 cents/kwh at wholesale.
Not even close. Nuclear is around 6 cents/kWh for current facilities (ranging from 3 to 14 cents/kWh), and that is with completely depreciated capital costs and counting no external costs! Future plants? Please all theory, no reality. The mantra of nuclear is always been "too cheap to meter", yet it has fallen famously short of this for 50 years... why should we subsidize it further? What is the benefit? Causes its super geeky cool? Not enough.US nuclear reactors average something around 98-99%
That would be nice. Nuclear plants have historically averaged only 80% up time - in fact in the 1980s is was 65%. Less availability than wind power: 95+% for a good wind farm (surprised? of course capacity factor is a different story). But your point about solar is indeed true, i left it out of my post for simplicity, it averages 30-40%. In fact 85% of the country has 1800-2000 kWh/m^2/year isolation for fixed panels. Around 80% of the best location in Arizona, so no desert needed.As for the waste - build breeder and integral fast reactors. They're more expensive to build, but cheaper to run, as their fuel can be all the 'waste' fuel rods sitting around. Eliminate two birds with one stone.
You can't have everything with Nuclear, you either get less efficient use of fuel, OR nuclear proliferation problems. The designers of light water reactor weren't stupid, they designed them to be a nuclear proliferation resistant design. Now, when we are concerned with terrorism, building breeder or fast reactors is insane. Remember is only takes 5-25 kg of material (a softball size) to made a viable nuclear weapon. Its the nuclear materials that are hard, the rest is a glorified pipe bomb - literally garage science.
The main point is with comparatively less subsidy than nuclear, solar and other renewables are kicking nuclears butt in the marketplace already. Next year solar will surpass new nuclear capacity, wind already did it 3 years ago. even with all of the hidden economic subsidies for nuclear. If you add those externalities back in, Nuclear doesn't make any sense. Yes it is cool technology. And it makes sense in a few situations (nuclear subs for example). But that doesn't win one any point: Pollution, scale, distribution, safety (the murphy factor), security, EROI, construction time, cost, etc.
The one flag that nuclear advocates wave is CO2. That is the only benefit, That alone is not enough. Trading 1 waste for another is not a big win - when there are renewable resources that do better, faster, cheaper. -
Re: Uranium is nearly an unlimited supply!
http://www.uic.com.au/nip75.htm
estimates 70 years based on the resources that we know of, noting that, unlike with oil, we haven't been looking for Uranium for most of the last 25 years.
Hell, it's my understanding that a lot of the Uranium being used, currently, is coming from dismantled WMDs.
Other estimates I'm finding have the supply on the order of 200 years. /shrug. No one really knows how much Uranium is out there, we simply stopped looking because we have enough either on hand, or easily available, literally for a lifetime.
Obviously, that will change, but Uranium (and it's cousin Thorium) aren't exactly hard to come by. -
Re:Meet the New Boss
Actually it is likely to be Australia. Until relatively recently Uranium mining in Australia has tended to be unpopular, so there is a lot of it there.
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Re:Buy shares
Your advice to buy mining stocks is warranted: demand for Au and U are increasing much faster than supply, pressing the need for more agressive exploration and exploitation of lower grade deposits. However, your justification for buying U/Au company stocks is not. There are really only two types of U deposits worth mentioning that also are associated with gold: the quartz-pebble conglomerates of the Witwatersrand Basin, South Africa and the Olympic Dam deposit in Australia.
The U in the Witwatersrand is mined as a byproduct of Au mining. The Witswatersrand Basin is, by far, the highest gold producing region in the world, and if you move enough rock, pretty much anything can be recovered economically. The sedimentary rocks that host the placer gold were deposited >2 billion years ago, before the atmosphere was oxidizing. Uranium is very soluble under oxidizing conditions. Consequently, U minerals were stable at the earth's surface >2 billion years ago, and some grains of U minerals are found in the conglomerates in the Wits.
The Olympic Dam deposit is somewhat of a freek of nature. Geologists still aren't quite sure what to make of it; it doesn't fall nicely into any ore deposit category. Economically recoverable elements include Au, Ag, Cu, and U. Rare Earth Elements (lanthanides) are present in high concentrations (~0.5%), but they are not favorable for economic extraction.
Most U comes from unconformity-hosted deposits in Canada and Australia. Most of the US's U is found in sandstone-hosted uranium deposits on the Colorado plateau. These are much lower grade (by about an order of magnitude) than the unconformity-type deposits, but are becoming econmoical again, owing to the high prices mentioned in the article.
See here for more information.
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Re:Water Bears
Hmmm, you got to wonder if that's a fortuitous coincidence or if that amazing ability to survive was spurred by something in their environment. Now that I think of it, any organism that can exist in an indefinite "cryptobiosis" state (ie, when all metabolic processes stop for a possibly long period of time) would do better if it had some of the above properties. In particular, the ability to survive extreme genetic damage is necessary IMHO. Suppose humans had similar abilities. If I entered cryptobiosis say in an "average" North American location, I'd receive a whole body dose of perhaps 3 millisievert per year (maybe much less since I'm no longer breathing carbon 14 and radon). Since I'm in cryptobiosis, I have no ability to repair radiation damage, it's like I experience this huge pulse of radiation damage.
According to here, every 100 millisievert results in a 5% boost (supposedly) in average life-time cancer rates, and 1000 or more millisievert is life threatening. So 30-40 years gives me a 5% boost in cancer rates and 300-400 years of cryptobiosis gets me up to 1000 millisievert. I can't survive roughly 3000 or more years (10 sievert which is automatically lethal) because I literally receive a fatal dose of radiation before I have a chance to repair it. We ignore that there may be other ionizing processes (chemical or thermal, for example) that would vastly shorten this time. -
Re:How?
Hmm, well, I guess you're right. As for your initial question, yes, France's energy is 78% nuclear. As a matter, their the world's largest net exporter of electricity(one of their biggest clients being London). Even then, I think they'd have to increase their nuclear power output drastically in order to have all or most of their cars being electric, never mind all the other obstacles to doing such a thing. Not that would disagree with such a thing, but its no small task.
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Re:New Zealand gets 75% from geothermal
I think you may be confused with the % of power generation in New Zealand that comes from
/all/ renewable resources. I've been struggling to find a first-hand authoritative reference (someone else may be able to help here), but this page gives the split as approximately 60% hydro, 25% gas, 7.5% coal, 7% geothermal & 2% wind, which is more in line with my recollection. -
Look where building's happening...
This url: http://www.uic.com.au/nip58.htm points shows a list of new nuclear plants being built in the US. Most of the building is happening in the Southeast. Nothing in CA.
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Re:Order yours here
Most night scopes are just IR LEDs coupled with a high-sensitivity CCD with significant gain feeding an LCD panel.
You might want to tell Ameriglo that.Glow-in-the-dark keychains are just phosphorus.
Sure about that?AFAIK, that has been illegal to sell for many, many years.
Only in the U.S. We still manage to import them every so often, though. Thinkgeek was selling such keychains a year or two ago. And they're not so much illegal as considered a "frivolous use of radioactive materials". Some of the illuminated watches used by police and military glow using the exact same techniques, but aren't considered as "frivolous". So you can purchase them over the counter in the US. (Go figure.)A level gauge (assuming you mean a bubble level) is just an air bubble in a liquid, which is usually colored ethanol (alcohol).
Level Gauges -
Re:Environmentalists from bizarro world.Just if you dont know, Most of Australia's power is from coal and we have no nuclear
Ironic as Australia is swimming in Uranium, with the largest reserves in the world.
Funny how we'd go from digging up one type of fossil fuel (coal - remenents of old biological matter) to another (uranium - remenents of exceedingly old supernovae).
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Re:Safety
The icebreaker Lenin was the world's first nuclear-powered surface vessel (20,000 dwt) and remained in service for 30 years, though new reactors were fitted in 1970. It led to a series of larger icebreakers, the six 23,500 dwt Arktika-class, launched from 1975. These powerful vessels have two reactors delivering 56 MW at the propellers and are used in deep Arctic waters. The Arktika was the first surface vessel to reach the North Pole, in 1977.
(see http://www.uic.com.au/nip32.htm)
let's see... 56 MW on an icebreaker, vs. 60 MW for these floating platforms. Doesn't seem like much difference to me. BTW, nuclear subs have MORE powerful reactors. And FWIW, 60 MW is less than 10% the power of a modern domestic nuclear power plant reactor, so this is not a "full scale reactor", and could not supply a whole city unless that city were some sort of extremely remote northern settlement (perhaps with a population comparable to the crew of a military submarine...) -
Re:Global "Dependencies"
Ok. For the year 2006, the total amount of Uranium required by all world nuclear power reactors combined will be about 65,000 tons, assuming a density of 19.1 g.cm^-3, this is equivalent to a cubic container measuring 40 feet x 40 feet x 40 feet (40 feet =~ 15 meters). Of course Uranium waste is never stored like that in huge containers but even assuming it is stored while filling only 10% of the raw volume of a container, it is still much better than releasing millions of tons of polluting gases in the atmosphere, better than polluting rivers and seas, etc.
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Re:Global "Dependencies"
Until something replaces Coal power plants as the main method of generating electricity
Has already happened in my home country, which generates 79% of its energy in nuclear power plants. Now can I get my electric car ?
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Re:Apply the figures to people playing at once
Solar could provide much more energy then was actualy needed
Using http://www.greenandgoldenergy.com.au/images/Direct BeamAustraliaandNewZealand.GIF (5kWh/m2/day = 1825 kWh/m2/year
From http://uic.com.au/nip37.htm (In 2003-04 Australia's power stations produced 237 billion kilowatt hours)
237,000,000,000 / 1,825 = 129.86 km2 (1,000,000 m2 in 1 km2)
assuming 10% efficency =1298.63 km2
20-21 km wide circle , .0169 % total area of australia
assuming 100% efficency =129.86 km2
6-7 km wide circle , .00169 % total area of australia
Using projected (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html) worldwide energy (all include electricity and ransport) use in 2015 is 162,068,301,805,239 kilowatt hours (per year)
690 times the energy
10% efficency = 11.660% the area of australia , 896,054.70km2 , 534km - 535km circle
100% efficency = 1.166% the area of australia , 89,605.47km2 , 168km - 169km circle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar_land_area .png
Or are are you talking about a diffrent problem then land area? -
Re:True cost of nuclear...?Some reactor types (e.g. the Canadian CANDU) do not need enriched fuel. LWR reactors do however. Uranium enrichment basically requires lots of electricity. Electricity which can be produced by nuclear fission as well. As the French did at Tricastin.
What the article neglects is that fuel cost is an almost insignificant problem for nuclear power generation. Most of the cost is in building the actual power plant and the concrete containment building. It takes years before a reactor is finished and generating power. This also means the cost of nuclear power is very sensitive to construction delays, or loan rates. When you see environmentalists mention CO2 generation from nuclear reactors, they usually are accounting for the CO2 emmitted by the concrete (any concrete will emit CO2... perhaps by that measure we should chop down all the forests and go back to using plain wood for building construction).
Some new 3rd generation designs are supposedly faster and hence cheap to build because they use less parts. On one note, the Koreans actually manage to build their nuclear reactors much faster than the USA using the same technology and I have not heard of accidents yet, so perhaps the delays are due to socio-political problems. Dunno.
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Laser enrichment isn't new
It's been around for over 20 years. What's new is that the Aussies appear to be commercialising it.
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Re:But currently the radiation level is smallI didn't discuss the effects of the dose people received just after the catastrophe. There is still debate about the number of deaths that can be attributed to the accident. But even this number of deaths is not astronomical. Even though the pictures of deformed children make a good emotional journalistic story, they can be found in any hospital anywhere and they are not a proof of anything. An the UNSCEAR report linked in my post above does not show evidence of increase in deformities.
Another story is how safe is living in the zone right now. And based on the natural level of radiation around the world, it is safe. Or put in another way, there are places around the world that are much more "contaminated" by natural radiation and no journalists care. Apart from Ramsar which bears the world record in natural radiation there are large areas with elevated background radiation larger than the Chernobyl zone. And "people living in these HBRAs [high background radiation areas] do not appear to suffer any adverse health effects as a result of their high exposures to radiation".
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Re: 30% propaganda
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But currently the radiation level is smallCome on. Is anybody really surprized? Scientists for years were questioning the necessity of Chernobyl evacuations and creation of the excluded zone (some evacuations were necessary but the zone was generally too broad). The stress due to evacuations was more harmful than the radiation. In the official UNSCEAR report, these voices were included. People can safely live there now so why not the animals? The radiation level in the "zone" is no more than 10mSv/year. Although it is above the average world natural background radiation (2.4 mSv/year), there are a lot of places where people receive larger radiation doses without ANY harmful effects including Ramsar in Iran, where the doze is 260 mSv/year, 26 times larger than in the Chernobyl zone.
It is known (although ignored in strict radiation regulations) that the same dose received in short time is much more harmful than the dose received during longer times. It is probably because the cells have repair mechanism that can cope with small damage over long time while cannot efectively repair large damage in short time. There are even indications that small doses can be beneficial by "training" the repair mechanism.
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Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke
Its amazing what you can find with google. I'm using this as a reference: http://www.uic.com.au/nip75.htm. 3.5 million tons known reserves, will last about 50 years. Estimated reserves (in addition to known): 9.7 million tons. Phosophate extraction: 22 million tons, seawater extraction: 4 BILLION tons. So fuel will not be a problem.
Its been a few years, but I think that Pu239 is the only isotope that is useful in a bomb. Everything else takes away. If anyone can confirm or deny this I'd appreciate it.
I like fusion, but after 50 years it seems like a Don Quiote type quest. Frankly, I hope we get it some year. With lots of energy we can start doing fun stuff like breaking down garbage into individual atoms and start doing recycling on a tremendous scale.
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Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke
http://www.uic.com.au/nip07.htm
Today, only eight countries are known to have a nuclear weapons capability. By contrast, 56 operate civil research reactors, and 30 have some 440 commercial nuclear power reactors with a total installed capacity of over 360 000 MWe (see table)
Article defines civil research reactors as "a source of neutron beams for scientific research and the production of medical and industrial isotopes." -
Re:Not emission-free
Ah ha. This is the kind of report I was looking for:
http://www.uic.com.au/nip100.htm -
Re:The amount of uranium
Old post of mine:
'uranium reserves' only includes discovered resources: The more good locations we discover, the more our reserves increase.
From http://www.uic.com.au/nip75.htm [uic.com.au] Current usage is about 68,000 tU/yr. Thus the world's present measured resources of uranium in the lower cost category (3.5 Mt) and used only in conventional reactors, are enough to last for some 50 years. This represents a higher level of assured resources than is normal for most minerals. Further exploration and higher prices will certainly, on the basis of present geological knowledge, yield further resources as present ones are used up. There was very little uranium exploration between 1985 and 2005, so a significant increase in exploration effort could readily double the known economic resources, and a doubling of price from present levels could be expected to create about a tenfold increase in measured resources, over time.
From http://www.magma.ca/~jalrober/Chapter14c.htm [magma.ca] Large amounts of uranium exist: it is about as abundant as tin. At the current rate of consumption (35,000 tonnes per year) and prices, known uranium resources of four million tonnes represent about 65 years consumption at current rates, comparable with about 42 years for oil and 62 years for natural gas.
I read a lot of estimates of the 'true' amount of uranium, so I'm not sure anyone really knows. Most estimates are around a couple hundred years (more than fossil fuel, but still not a long term solution) -
Re:Nuclear can be safe"There is a problem with fire, since the pebbles are graphite, but fire is a lot easier to deal with than a melt-down." No. A graphite fire is a a complete bitch to put out by normal techniques. You can need tons of sand/lead/boron/pick your heavy element/compound here.
If you want to see why graphite in a reactor isn't the best of ideas: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windscale_fire or http://www.uic.com.au/Chernosequence.htm.
Sure, it makes a nice moderator, runs at a high temp without loss of structure, but when it goes up in flame, it burn hot. And long. The Chernobyl graphite fires took *days* to put out. To me, a fire in a reactor that melts things constitutes a meltdown. Sure, with pebble-bed it's harder than, say, the RBMK designs, but it's still possible. I'll deal with high-pressure steam before I'd like to deal with flaming graphite.Before someone says it, the Graphite Reactor at ORNL was operated completely safely, but that was never used for power generation, and was tended to by some of the best and brightest of the time.
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Re:coal
Coal power is still dirtier by pretty much any metric but waste toxicity by density. And that simply means that it's easy to contain nuclear waste.
but then wikipedia gets stupid: if it's released, it's not nuclear waste. The proper claim is that, while operating as designed
Ah, it's not waste, it's POLLUTION. Nuclear power plant waste isn't pollution because it's not released into the enviroment. Coal pollutes, because it releases a good portion of it's waste products into the atmosphere, including hazardous ones.
Here's the deal: You take the 24 tons of nuclear waste produced by a nuclear plant, grind it up, and mix it with 200,000 tons of something more or less inert, like sand.
Now compare it with the 200,000 tons of fly ash contaminated with such things as toxic metals, including arsenic, cadmium and mercury, organic carcinogens and mutagens (substances that can cause cancer and genetic changes) as well as naturally-occurring radioactive substances.
Which is more dangerous at that point?
There's no need for the whole decommisioning process with lots of radioactive material
How often have we extended the life of current nuclear reactors? Most of them seem to have a longer actual service life than their rated 20-40 years. Think of it like a driver's license. They operate for that long, then are re-examined before an extension is granted. Besides, it's just an additional expense. It's not like coal mining that both destroys the enviroment, pollutes, and costs hundreds of miners their lives each year.
Large numbers of windmills in the sparsely populated Midwest could produce a good portion of our power needs, and are nearing cost-effectiveness
I'll tell you what, we get some new nuclear plants up, multiples of the same type so we can get some economy of scale going, and we'll see how competitive windpower, and solar for that matter, is.
Oh, and Lincoln, NE's power company, right in the middle of the Midwest, decided to stop expanding wind power, because their mills were only producing usable electricity about 25% of the time. So it's not like it was saving them generation capacity.
As for Yucca Mountain, that's what you get when you let the government mess with the economy. They're horrible at it. Let the power companies figure something out. For that matter, let them reprocess the stuff. -
Re:coal
It's for a simple reason. It's a low grade source. It's not economically feasable to do it. We're better off mining uranium out of high grade mines, at least currently.
I was talking in a sense of 'we magically pull all the uranium out of the coal/ash without significant effort or cost'. It's like pointing out that there's more gold dissolved in ocean water than all the gold mines combined. Why aren't we mining the ocean? Not worth it, it's too dispersed.
It's all a matter of scale. Good quality Black Coal is 24-30 MJ/kg, Uranium is 500,000 MJ/kg in a light water reactor. That's better than 16,000 times the energy density, best case scenario. That's 16 kilotons of coal burned for every ton of uranium.
A 1 thousand megawatt station will burn 3.1 million tons of black coal, versus 24 tons of uranium. For that matter, some 97% of the nuclear 'waste' is recyclable.
Meanwhile:
The 1,000 MWe coal-fired power station produces about 7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide each year, plus perhaps 200,000 tonnes of sulfur dioxide which in many cases remains a major source of atmospheric pollution. Other waste products from the burning of coal include large quantities of fly ash (typically 200,000 tonnes per year), containing toxic metals, including arsenic, cadmium and mercury, organic carcinogens and mutagens (substances that can cause cancer and genetic changes) as well as naturally-occurring radioactive substances. -
Re:Oil sands
It would take more energy than your reactors were producing to run the vast desalinisation plants needed to get the salts out of the sea water. And it would still be needle in a haystack time getting the uranium atoms out of the huge pile of salt. And I bet the "3.3 parts per billion" is by mass so in terms of particles, which is what matters when you are trying to separate it, it is over a magnitude lower than that already tiny number. If we could magically extract uranium from sea water in violation of the second law of thermodynamics we wouldn't need nuclear reactors or any other energy source in the first place.
The facts are that uranium mine production peaked in the early eighties and while demand from reactors continues to grow and prices are rising steeply most uranium used in reactors comes from stockpiles built up during the cold war, which are now being steadily depleted.
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Re:For that sort of market
Here's a good reference. http://www.uic.com.au/opinion6.html