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Census Bureau Wants 500,000 Handhelds in 2010
andori writes: "ComputerWorld is reporting that the Census Bureau is wanting to conduct the 2010 Census without the use of paper. They want to use 500,000 handhelds with GPS and wireless communications abilities. And they want to do it for $100 an unit. I sure hope the industry is able to that price point some day! I will personally take a few if they do."
cool...I think!
We already have handhelds that can do that and by 2009ish when they will want to buy them I dont see this being an issue. We already have several handhelds for around $100 on the market.
I know from firsthand exp. that would make things MUCH more simple. however it wouldn't work in alot of areas, such as mountian communities where thetre is wireless service, hell you're lucky to dialup in the mountians! but in the larger areas (where the bulk of the population is) it would make things go alot faster.
if you want "No More Hiroshimas" then I say "You First. No More Pearl Harbors."
They want to use 500,000 handhelds with GPS and wireless communications abilities. And they want to do it for $100 an unit.
Can't the Blackberry almost do this already? In 7 years, we'll have nothing to worry about. You vastly underestimate the pace at which technological innovation moves on this planet.
- A.P.
"Remember when the U.S. had a drug problem, and then we declared a War On Drugs, and now you can't buy drugs anymore?"
Wait, let me get this straight. They want to conduct a census without the use of paper, yet they want to do it door-to-door. That doesn't make any sense at all. What's the problem with paper? It's sure a hell of a lot more reliable than electronics. And don't tell me that it's faster, because you know that's just FUD.
Maybe Microsoft will run the 2010 census too. They always have such innovative ideas.
www.timcoleman.com is a total waste of your time. Never go there.
Right now, the functionality is just about there and the price isn't that far off either. Given another 6-7 years of tech, I have to say I'll be pretty disappointed if something like that costs anywhere near $100.
All movements for social change begin as missions, evolve into businesses, and end up as rackets.
By 2010, I don't see this as a problem. Hell, the local power company is already doing this.. not for that cheap, and they're not exactly palms.. but we have 8 years to go.
I don't see why this will be a problem.
I don't think it's too unreasonable that a combination GPS, PDA, and phone could be made available at $100/pop within the next 6 years.
sorry champ, beat ya to it
As the volume goes up, the price goes down. If retail stores take their typical 30+% markup on a $120 Palm device, then the Palm device makers are already in the range. I'm sure any one of the major handheld players would love to get that contract $50 million for 500,000 handhelds leaves LOTS of margin when those 500,000 handhelds are being churned out of fabs in Korea and Hong Kong.
http://tinyurl.com/4ny52
Isn't the whole point of the census to get a complete count of everyone? That means, everyone needs to fill out a form... Do they expect people to do it over the web or something?
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
You heard! Uninstall Linux now, it only $179 a fresh shiny copy of windows XP! Please the census, uninstall linux!
If they give me one of those computers, I'll actually take part in the census this time..
Otherwise we might see small rural areas with amazing population booms, their own congressional districts, and lots of federal $$$.
Hopefully they don't save the data in a proprietary format. Thus rendring the data useless by 2015. Like say domesday. :)
I know I'm going to hell, I'm just trying to get good seats.
Palm was selling Palm VII's for a hundred bucks for a while with large rebates. You would then need GPS units though. Still, with an order of 500k units they should be able to get a pretty deep discount so I think that $100 should be reasonable. Also, remember the next census is many years off, so prices should be lower in general (Hopefully!!).
The census people want Bejeweled, and they want it soon.
yet another completely absurd dependence on a machine in a system that works fine without them.
but hey -- its more profits for some company! and we all know thats good for everyone.
--
STOP WASTING SO MUCH ENERGY!
You people use about twice as much energy per person than most people in the developed world, so stop it!
USA = 7300kg oil equiv
Europe = 4000kg oil equiv
I'm talking about the Zaurus SL-5500 SL-5500. But at that price I doubt that the census people will be packing them around. If you want to take a look at one you'll find it here.
It's amazing how much technology has changed. I wonder if they'll have a "Get the hell off my property and leave me alone!" checkbox.
The race isn't always to the swift... but that's the way to bet!
"All the better to violate your privacy with."
Some have asked why this should be done without paper. One answer that springs to mind is that paper doesn't hold enough data about the populace. If it's done with a techie gadget with lots of functionality and (more importantly) storage, the government can intrude even further into our lives.
Heck, make it into a game and have people answer the questions while entertaining themselves, and they'll have no qualms about providing their most intimate details. "Hmm, do I conceal the fact that I snitched money from the church offering plate or do I kill the big boss for this level? Uh... Maximum points!"
Sorry, feeling just a wee bit cynical this evening...
No Laughing Allowed!
What would these half-million units be used for after the 2010 census? One thing is certain: The wireless protocols they end up using won't exist in 2020. Maybe they should donate them to schools?
Kevin Fox
That would be a pretty vast amount of paper/trees saved.
7 ,00.html t alks/
Might actually help re: Greenhouse Gas emissions.
Nice to see that some parts of the government are doing something (even if it's not deliberate),
seeing as the Bush-Bot Mark 2 doesn't give a damn.
(Remember the Kyoto Climate Change Agreement - which everyone else in the world signed?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/bush/story/0,7369,52660
http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/europe/07/23/kyoto.
---- I've fallen, and I can't get up.
I got mine from the factory, refurbished for only 139 bucks... I'm sure in 8 years they'll still have refurbished current ones, and at the rate of depreciation that handhelds have, there should be a huge secondary market.
Every day, our drivers use their DIAD (Delivery Information Acquisition Device) IIIs to track the millions of packages delivered and picked up. They're wireless, but in the event that they're out of RF range, the information is buffered and then re-transmitted by the DIAD Vehicle Adapter (DVA), which also provides trickle charge capabilities. If all else fails, the DIAD can transfer its batch at the end of the day when it's placed in its cradle at the center.
We don't currently have GPS in the DIAD III, but the prototype DIAD IVs (which run on PocketPC 2002...ugh) do. They'll not only give drivers who lose their way directions to the next delivery destination, they will also broadcast their location back to the center, which will allow center supervisors and managers to determine more efficient driving routes and coverage areas.
They that would sacrifice their
The census is only legally authorized to *count* the population. All the other sundry data they collect is the result of a(nother) government power grab. Of course the constitution is becoming more and more just so much bird cage-liner.
-- Don't call me "Sir," I increase entropy for a living!
... the price will drop by 2009.
Samsung SPH-i330
plus people will commit unnatural acts to sell a half-million computers.
And what are those unnatural acts, I want to know. Maybe I am in the wrong career.
That's right, you had hanging Chads last year. Can't you just wait for the inevitable "hotsync reporting errors" and "field information loss" due to battery malfunction? Ahh the federal government. Constantly finding ways to add complexity to any situation.
Find out about my new childrens book: SS Death Camp Criminal Batallion Go To Monte Carlo For The Massacre
Know why we use so much energy? BECAUSE WE CAN. That's right, here in the Good Ol' US of Fuckin'-A, we can leave our lights on 24 hours a day, turn up the air conditioner on days when it's only 75F (that's 10C for you Eurotrash)...and we'll leave our windows open so we can spew that CFC-laden air right into the atmosphere!
While I'm doing that, I think I'll have a big hearty lunch of baby harp seal fillet, some spotted owl eggs, and I'll wash it down with a nice tall glass of crude oil. Hell, I'll drink a barrel -- I don't think I've quite met my quota for the year-to-date. Lemme check...I should be at 1500 Kg already, and I've barely got 1200! Better make that two barrels.
And then, after lunch, I'm gonna turn on my 72" television, and my THX/Dolby Digital/Deafening Bass sound system, and I'm going to watch footage of the ass-kicking we're giving the apes in Afghanistan. I'll clean my guns (all 47 of them) while I snuggle my tootsies into the thick, warm, bearskin rug in my living room -- it's made from a bear I took down myself. I should probably put on a sweater (which was made in China...what the hell do I care if they use eight-year-old prisoners for slave labor there, as long as it's cheap), since my house is so damned cold right now. And I'll laugh aloud with joy at my own existence, and how much it irritates the crap out of you.
Think about that while you huddle in your miserable, damp little excuse for a shithole apartment, in a complex with two thousand other people that has all the aesthetic sense of a cinder block, eating swill and praying not to offend your precious Gaia.
What is more expensive? Paper and pen or PDA?
Yes,
Buy a Nintendo DS Lite
in 7 years they can buy MY palm VIII (heck, make it Palm XII !) for eighty-- make it an even hundred. i'll bet my coworkers will take em up on that one too, even toss in a used GPS mod or two for that price. Or possible trade for a Big Mac. Either or.
--you have been trolled--
You would be crazy to think we won't be able to have this in 8 years. You can already get cell phones with GPS capability - couple that with a pocket PC and you're most of the way there technologically. Price-wise, well, I guess 8 years should be long enough to beat the price down.
He who defends everything, defends nothing. -- Fredrick The Great
I propose that the used units are recycled into cattle feed, the way everything else is these days. Cheapest antibiotics around comes in your Quarter Pounder with Cheese :O) so why not your daily silicon and plastic too?
failing that, maybe another CueCat will emerge from the wreckage, and we'll have more better toys again!
Wheeeeee!
--you have been trolled--
Constitution, as you say, can be used for many things.. like wrapping Big Macs in. It's the next big thing. I'm not OT here am I? Sure hope not. This is relevant stuff!
--you have been trolled--
I'll sell Al Gore's left testicle, punch out Prime Minister Chretin (Canadian dude, if you must know...) and sell Mike Tyson to the Arabs as a secret weapon to sell a half million wee boxen. That's plenty unnatural to some folks. Alternatively, I could just walk around town come St. Paddy's in naught but the one-button suit an' the green grease-y paint!! Maybe that option's the better, what do the moderators think?? OK there I feel much better. WHEEEEEeeee!!!
--you have been trolled--
Haha. Right on Man. If we all cross our fingers, maybe we could convince micro$hi to bless us with such an innovative solution.
My girlfriend once worked for the Census Bureau, and she used a laptop for her surveys (carrying 3 spare batteries at all times...)
Given the current state of affairs, this is certainly evolutionary, not revolutionary.
What we call folk wisdom is often no more than a kind of expedient stupidity.-Edward Abbey
Don't be a chump....if the census takers use PDA's that accept handwriting on the screen, how can this be a bad thing? Paper is faster? How? How can it be faster to delay gathering the data electronically?
How do you get all those individual pieces of paper turned into something that can be counted and checked and compiled...is that faster than having the data already in electronic form?
If you bypass the manual entry/gather method and go direct to data input, you do something we've all been doing for years...enjoying automated data entry.
Ever been to a restuarant where they take your order on a wireless handheld? Your food order is being displayed and acted on in the kitchen as soon as the waiter hits send.
Try using an ATM by filling out a form first. Or consider a PDA instead of all those forms you fill out for a car loan...or passport....or tax forms...chump-troll.
The idiotic Kyoto Agreement needed so much work that only ONE industrialized country signed it (Romania).
The fact is that NOT A SINGLE COUNTRY in the EU has signed it, and they are usually even more enviro-radical than some of the moron greens here.
Get your facts straight.
El Karma: excelente(principalmente la suma de moderación hecha a los comentarios de los usuarios)
Everyone else said yes they think it should be signed.
i /tech/newsid_1 854000/1854038.stm
Ratification hasn't happened yet. Romania is an early taker a I suppose.
EU one step from Kyoto ratification
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sc
sense to re-program them and use them at election time so that nonsense and corruption is avoided.
We can easily do this much for this price in such a period of time. Hell, I expect it to be on a regular size wristwatch with skin conductance to a patch into the visual cortex at the speed things are moving. So this story is actually about how unimaginative the Census folks are.
keep up the good work klerck.
Perhaps the U.S. should concentrate more on improving the election system before tackling the job of making the census more complicated!
"I have never let my schooling interfere with my education." - Mark Twain
It sounds like they want exactly what I want in one of those handhelds. They sure have come a long way since I worked there many many years ago. Incidentally, The Burueau of the Census was the first agency to put MAPs of nearly every single tiny little down in the country on to computers, including street names, alternate names etc.. So, they have always been on somewhat of a leading edge technology wise. When I was there, they were digitizing the maps onto Tektronix CAD stations that still ran CPM! Personally, I think they will be able to get pretty close to that target price. The Census Bureau doesnt get the respect it deserves..
-- -- Warning. Do not stare directly at the sun.
Incidentally, teh project was called the TIGER project, and the MAPs from it are available online. These maps are also used by many of the GPS systems these days..
http://tiger.census.gov/
-- -- Warning. Do not stare directly at the sun.
What would they need today? A GPS, wireless link and a handheld would run them say $600 (come on, its the government
Think about the computer industry. The price of a PC has only dropped by about half during the last seven years, and the top of the line models still push the same $4k - $5k price of the original PC. I think that we will see a similar price structure for PDAs in 2010
What holds the prices in check? You constantly need more CPU and memory/storage to perform the same functions!
The funniest part of this story is that they're trying to limit the cost of the PDAs to $100 dollars (or a $50M total price tag) but they will go spend $200M to have an inept consulting firm write the software
Open source census software anyone?
Once again the needs of the Census Bureau would have the effect of pushing technology. The first punched card tabulating equipment (that later became -- for many years -- the primary input method for the digital computer) was invented for the 1890 Census.
All of the hardware requirements exist today. Looking at Handspring, most list prices now are under $200 - and that's for 2-3 old technology. In 2-3 years, an iPaq 38xx could easily be selling in that range. GPS card today is about $200... Sierra card w/ service could be a wildcard...
In quanities of 500,000 8 years from now, this can easily be imagined in a wearable device.
Of course, my one large assumption is that the software will be developed based on an open source OS, avoiding the microsoft tax...
So what they're really saying is:
;-). The LCD, touchscreen and battery will cost $30-40 together, and the processor, mainboard, and all associated electronics will be another $10-20. The enclosure will be maybe $5. Cheap labor would be $1-5.
We want to give a $50,000,000 dollar contract to a company that can provide 500,000 rugged, easy to use, long lasting (14 hours of active use per charge minimum), PDAs with GPS and wireless communications.
That should be relatively simple, if they use a free OS. They don't need to be color, though it might help. They do need to be very easily visible. The display can be a larger 1/4 vga screen, which should be much less expensive to make than the current color PDA screens.
So, let's see... About twice as thick as an IPAQ, and about as wide and long as the old newtons. It wouldn't need to be a real computer, so you could go with only flash to hold the (optional) OS and program code with a compactflash slot for long term storage. The GPS unit will cost $10-15 in quantity, as will the GSM (or APRS, or 802.11b
Cost each unit:$56 - 80. The R&D (as well as breathing room for unexpected problems) would soak up the last $44-20.
This could be done in two years, including the development of software that is easily configurable to make census forms and input, enable the communications across the network, etc.
At the high end, it would leave $10,000,000 for the company doing the development, equivilant to 40 salaried employees for five years at $50,000/yr (yes, some would be more, a few would be less, but the dev time should be less than 3 years, and fewer than 40 employees are needed.) If the company doing the work generalizes the PDA enough(maybe adding local networking to the national networking, etc) then they could sell additional units to other customers. Hobbyists would pay a little for it, but it would mostly stay in the corporate sector.
That's my bid. I estimate about one year to get the company up and running, one year R&D, two years active development, one year for a limited test run, one year for a production run and distribution, and two years breathing room. The software will allow full remote updating, real time statistics collection, we'll engineer the systems needed to run the entire show, and contract the necessary infrastructure for the wireless data collection.
-Adam
Training and implementation and testing takes time. Pencil and paper are easy. Many of these units will need to be delivered 1-2 years in advance.
So they are right to get started on this now.
Not to mention building the back end network.
I don't use much paper myself. I think I get ten times as much paper in the mail as I use myself.
However I sure would miss the paper the few times I use it. Printing out a configuration file for some software or hardware, printing out a chapter of a PDF file. I sometimes need to avoid the noise in my cubicle and noting beats going in to a meeting room, close the door and concentrate of the paper on the table.
Some times I just unplug my laptop or bring my palmtop, but for some reason it really helps me to see it on paper where I can underline, cross over or write on the paper. If I were to ditch the paper completly the palm or the laptop would need to mimic the paper better. One would need a "palmtop" with the size of a A4 and the resolution and contrast. Then I would need to be able do draw, write on it.
If you could take the acrobat reader and look and draw on the documents like a real paper it would be great maybe even better. Lets say you had a manual for a program or some hardware as a PDF document where you could "mess it up" by writing and drawing on top of the document. A great feature it would be. You could choose to see it as a clean document or with your own markings.
Then I might avoid the paper all together.
If anyone doubts that in several years we'll have handhelds that have capabilities current devices cannot dream of at prices that you wouldn't imagine, I would point them to an excellent source of information: recent history. (Well, as recent as thirty years ago.) Computers were the size of a building and costed millions of dollars. If someone had told people that in a few decades there would be computers that could fit on your desk and would be hundreds of times as powerful as all of the computers on the planet at the time and be affordable for most Americans to own at least one... you wouldn't have believed him.
What evidence do we have to suggest that the rate of advancement (which is exponential), will not do the same again? We reached the limit of vacuum tubes, and we discovered the integrated circuit. Why should it be impossible to discover another breakthrough of that same magnitude?
Lack of eloquence does not denote lack of intelligence, though they often coincide.
"it would leave $10,000,000 for the company doing the development, equivilant to 40 salaried employees for five years at $50,000/yr
...
That's my bid."
Well, get a project manager and an accountant and refine it, it might work. Here's one tip: double the salary cost to get the actual worker cost (once you factor in HR costs, payroll processing, matching social security, managerial/paperwork overhead, and hiring costs), i.e.a $50k employee costs the company $100k.
Which goes to show that operating a business isn't something that we comp sci folks are necessarily the best at. But (like you) we can do a good job specing out a project and then let someone modify our numbers!
(Running a business is always more expensive than it looks. Heck, just _filing_ an IPO is a half-million dollar cost!)
A.
Due to the E911 mandate every cellphone available for sale in America should have GPS in it by 2010. (OK - the E911 mandate doesn't state GPS explicitly, but I believe that GPS will win.)
Given the capabilities of the latest cellphones combined with GPS, they may be all that is necessary to conduct a census.
Those profits go towards hiring people. Maybe even people like you.
You lose.
1) The gov't does more than one thing at a time, so your jab at the election system is nothing but a troll.
2) This is simplifying the system not making it more complicated. The data is all in the computer system to begin with, and there are no billions of papers to be scanned. Less errors, less paper, less time, less complexity.
What if a handheld breaks? or gets dropped? do we get audited?
And I'll say "I told you so!" when the wireless points get cracked..
Cell phone + built in manditory GPS + Java browser = unit. Someone just has to write the software as an applet for the browser, store some of the data on the phone and have it connect up to the main system every 10 to 15 mins to upload the data.
For 50 million we could easily produce this device using readily available components. It's really just an assembly job. You don't have to invent a single thing.
Start manufacturing the devices in 2008. This gives you 2 years to work out the bugs.
The software could easily be written today and would run at acceptable speeds on today's PDAs. Keep a small team of 4-5 programers to write the software over the next 8 years.
The hardware either doubles in speed, halves in size, or halves in price every 18 months. If you wait until 2008 before manufacturing the devices they could be 1/16th the cost. In practice it'd be more like 1/8th given some of the other components like the case and battery. If I can buy a Palm for $200 retail, the cost is well below $100 today. In 2008 the cost of the harware will be below $50 easily.
Forget wireless - the coverage will never be that great in low population density areas. Instead every night plug the thing into a phone line while it recharges. Upload the collected surveys and download the next day's targets and maps etc.
The whole device could be assembled from off the shelf components and manufactured in 2008. You'd only need 1 or 2 people to co-ordinate the manufacturing.
The only problem would be managing the politics. Keeping the specifications of what the device should be capable of to what is needed for the task. Every new person on the government side is going to want their own pet idea implemented.
Time to start a small company of no more than 10 people. Any takers?
- AndrewN
Imagine a beowulf cluster of those babies...
The US constitution specifies that US Citizens must be enumerated within every ten year period. Nowhere does the constitution authorize such detailed data collection, nor is it "necessary and proper."
This update program is called MAF/TIGER. An optional feature request in this update would involve merging these GPS coordinates with something like the Realsite program. This would give a textured 3D model that is geospatially accurate to within 1 meter, based off of aerial, satellite and hand held photography.
Thinking in paranoid mode I can't help but think of government surveillance via satellite and robot and cruise missiles targeting specific GPS coordinates.
I'm not seriously worried about anything in particular, but it's the abuse that I cannot foresee that truly worries me. As I cannot conceive of any benefit that this program would bring to the average citizen I have to ask, why are we doing it?
Damnit I AM acting my age. I'm 15 in hex!
There are many other costs associated with running a business - taking care of the employee might be one of the easiest. Also given that this is a government project, there is more red tape to deal with. The thing is, it's possible to do it now at this price, think how much more easily it'll be accomplished with off-the-shelf hardware 3 years from now. Only, they can't wait that long to start...
-Adam
In other news, a bunch of welfare recipients got together and voted that work should be done, then went back home to watch "Cribs."
Yes, I get your point.
Yes, I understand I'm being immature.
El Karma: excelente(principalmente la suma de moderación hecha a los comentarios de los usuarios)
The census has driven data processing technology before. In fact, it STARTED it.
As the population expanded, it was taking longer and longer to compute the results. By about 1890 it was taking almost ten years to complete, and the extrapolation was that the next one would take MORE than ten years.
So an employee of the Census began designing mechanical sorting and tabulating equipment. He came up with a cardboard card which could be punched with holes representing information, the placed in a "press" where the holes were read electromechanically.
The first sorting machines involved a human putting each card in the press by hand, causing the lid of the appropriate box to pop open, then throwing the card into the box and closing the lid. (After sorting the cards in each box would be counted.) But with time automatic machines were designed to feed, sort, and count the cards.
The census put out a contract to have cards made, and the bids that came in were very high. So the inventor went across the street to the Mint and obtained the retired cutting equipment for the previous generation of paper money - which became the dimension of the tabulation cards.
Eventually the inventor hired on with a business equipment company, designing sorting and tabulating equipment for the Census which found applications elsewhere. A multi-hole encoding for alphabetic information that cards be alphabetized in two passes through a simple machine.
The inventer was Herman Hollerith, and of course the code was named after him. The company was eventually named International Business Machines, later shortened to IBM. The card was the "tabulation" card, later shortened to "tab" card, but it was commonly known as a "Hollereth card" or "IBM card".
Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
half a million hand helds will mean that the tech industry will have a nice (even if it's small) boom.
=================
Unix is very user friendly, it's just picky about who its friends are.
Well, the short answer is because it pays my salary. The long answer is that every stinking thing the govt. does is driven by these numbers. You should mind the sharp distinction made between microdata (data about individuals which can be correlated to addresses and consequently, names) and aggregate data (the stuff that is released to the public after each decennial enumeration). Also, the distinction between the short and long forms. The long form (optional) is the one in which a wide range of information about race, economic status, lifestyle, etc. are asked. These questions are not sanctioned by the constitution, but are enacted by your elected representatives in Congress to provide themselves and other govt. agencies with data about important social or economic questions of the day. Back in the 1840's there seems to have been considerable interest in the quantity and quality of dry and wet hay, for example.
The Bureau is legally bound not to distribute microdata for 72 years from the date of collection. That applies to anyone, public, private, in or out of the government. Your friendly big-brother agencies have to get their own data.
Another thing to be mindful of is the breadth of research driven by this data, the entire field of quantitative history and much of qualitative history, almost all current social science research, epidemiology (CDC, NIH). The data is used throughout the govt., by agencies to target social service delivery, by the legislature for redistricting, for identifying trends which indicate potential social or economic challenges. For example, the Somali population of my fair city has grown exponentially in the last decade. It turns out that most of the newcomers are internal migrants, relocating from within the US to an area that has developed a reputation for tolerance and economic opportunity and that has an established community, with mosques, stores featuring familiar foods, etc. Identifying these trends and their impetus is the job of the census. Targeting social services for the needs of that community minimizes the fixed costs of service delivery and maximizes the impact of your tax dollar at the street level. Whether you think that it's the govt's business to help these folks speak english, get jobs, negotiate an alien economic system (many Muslims have a socio-religious taboo about borrowing money at interest) is another, political, question. I do think that this has tremendous value for the average citizen, making one of the most efficient agencies of the federal govt even more efficient.
Plus, I'm building NHGIS.ORG and its going to make my life a lot easier.