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Drake on Drake: ET Life A Certainty

astro writes "Frank Drake, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the SETI Institute applies Occam's Razor to his own Drake equation: 'Life should appear very frequently on other Earth-like planets. There will be microbial life nearby the solar system.' The simplest scenario is that 'Not Life' has a nearly identical number of assumptions as 'Life.' The contrasting view is that experimentation can prove it--but how many times did life independently create itself while the Earth changed through the whole spectrum of what biological forces might conjure up elsewhere. A sample size of 1 is in fact an experimental sample size of many--just here during Earth's climatic history."

103 of 327 comments (clear)

  1. 1 != Many by $carab · · Score: 4, Interesting

    A sample size of 1 is in fact an experimental sample size of many--just here during Earth's climatic history
    Ummm....Im sorry, but I thought that there was, perhaps many singular events where life was formed billions of years ago, but simple evolution and extinction dont "scale" to be equivalent to non-life becoming life.

    Furthermore, I recall reading a book..."Probability 1", that spend several chapters mucking around before submitting a "proof" that there must be intelligent life elsewhere...As I recall, it hinged on one instance of life, which is us.

    1. Re:1 != Many by AJWM · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Within the last few years, some scientists (don't recall at the moment whether they were biologists, climatologists or planetologists, or some combination thereof) have speculated that large asteroid impact events early in Earth's history (say in the range 1 to 3.5 billion years ago) were sufficient to pretty much sterilize the planet, only to have life re-form after things cooled off a bit.

      --
      -- Alastair
    2. Re:1 != Many by overunderunderdone · · Score: 2

      Yes, but we don't know whether there was life then to sterilise or not. If we could observe the conditions on Earth over it's entire history and test for the presense of life THEN we would have a sample size greater than 1. BUT, all we know about life on earth before theoretical sterilization events is conjectural. Just like all we know about life on other planets is conjecture. And all that conjecture is still based on a sample size of 1.

    3. Re:1 != Many by AJWM · · Score: 2

      Actually we do know that there was life then, there is (micro) fossil evidence to that effect (at least going back to somewhere between 2 and 3 billion years ago). There's also geologic evidence of some pretty major impacts and geologic upheavals since then.

      What we don't know for sure is whether those impacts/upheavals were enough to sterilize the planet or left a few isolated pockets of life from which it re-emerged.

      --
      -- Alastair
    4. Re:1 != Many by overunderunderdone · · Score: 2

      Good point, I guess we are more in a situation where we are not sure if we have one sample or two or three.

      The "rare earth" people that Drake is debating actually assume that such bacterial life is very common, but that multicellular life is very rare, so it's presense on primordial earth prior to mass extinction events does nothing to dispute their claims. (indeed, it is one of their explicitly stated expectations)

      It should be pointed out though that if we are talking about complex life we DO have a larger sample than 1 right now. Both Venus and Mars are "earth-like" in astronomical terms. They are about the right size and about the right distance from the sun. But they are not *quite* right. Mars has frozen and Venus is gripped with runaway greenhouse gases, they are each a "little too close" and "a little too far". Though if they had gotten the atmospheric chemistry right I think their distance from the sun could have been compensated for - imagine if their positions were reversed, if Mars had the thick atmosphere with a lot of greenhouse activity and Venus had the thin atmosphere - who knows? As it is they are fairly good examples of what happens if just a few variables on your "earth-like" planet are wrong by just a little (in astronomical terms). Even Mercury with no atmosphere is an example of not only being too close to the sun (and thus too hot) but of being caught in tidal lock (so despite the intense heat on one side the atmoshpere freezes out on the other) This would presumably happen to any planet so close in, even if the star were smaller and a mercury type planet was only getting as much solar energy as earth is getting further away from a larger star.

      It is not unlikely that if we could start visiting other systems we would find a *lot* of planets that were candidates to become truly earth-like but failed because they got just a few variables wrong by just a little bit. Even a nearly identical planet to Earth - exactly the same size, exactly the same distance from exactly the same sized star, with exactly the same chemical composition would have a high probablity of succumbing to either runaway greenhouse gases or having it's atmosphere freeze out if it's atmospheric composition was not regulated by the action of plate tektonics & continental weathering or if it's tilt was not regulated by an oversized moon or if it just had the bad luck of being hit with a really big comet (a very likely occurance without a "jupiter" nearby sucking up or pushing out all the debris).

    5. Re:1 != Many by AJWM · · Score: 3, Informative

      Good points about Venus and Mars which orbit at the edges of the "life zone".

      One possibly critical datum missing from that analysis relates to Earth's history. Earth has a relatively thin crust and the combination of tectonic motion, subduction, and vulcanism recycles elements back to the atmosphere after they'd been locked up in rocks. (Actually you do hint at this in your last para.)

      Mars seems to be small enough that it has solidified down far enough that there's no more cycling of the crust and thus the oxygen and hydrogen locked in the rocks stays there, also any free hydrogen (from the ultraviolet lysis of water) escapes to space before it can recombine, thus Mars now has a very thin atmosphere.

      Venus may be large enough, although that isn't certain. It certainly seems to have continental masses but I don't know about any active volcanism. It's heavy enough to retain atmosphere though -- too much of it, as you point out.

      It's possible that the reason Earth escaped Venus's fate has less to do with the distance from the Sun and more to do with the formation of our Moon. Current theory is that late in the formation of the solar system, the proto-earth was smacked by a Mars-size protoplanet which literally splashed a good chunk of the proto-Earth into space, some of which condensed to form the Moon. This has several implications. The lightest elements would have boiled away in significant quantity, so there's just less of them around to form a thick atmosphere (hence less runaway greenhouse). The medium light-weight elements (that form crust, particularly continental crust) were greatly reduced, some of them forming the Moon (so in one sense, the Moon is the 8th continent), meaning that tectonic circulation has an easier time of it. (The heat from that impact might also have some effect there, although I think that would be dissipated by now.)

      All of which leads to the (somewhat depressing) conclusion that Earth is habitable only because of a really unlikely sequence of events (much more unlikely than merely forming at the right size in the right place). OTOH, observation of our own solar system and some of the very strange (to us) places on Earth that life survives and thrives indicate that there could be a lot of places that primitive life exists. Star Trek's "Class M" planets are probably pretty darned rare, though.

      (Oh, BTW, Mercury isn't in "tidal lock" like the Moon is with Earth, but in a 3:2 tidal resonance with the Sun.)

      --
      -- Alastair
    6. Re:1 != Many by Eil · · Score: 2

      Good points about Venus and Mars which orbit at the edges of the "life zone".

      Why does there have to be a "life zone" (defined only as a certain range of distances from the sun... our sun) to begin with? I'm down right amazed how many "experts," "scientists," and just people in general always assume that if there is "life" out there elsewhere in the universe, then it must obviously:
      • be based on a cellular structure
      • consume oxygen or carbone dioxide or any other gas plentiful on Earth
      • have some type of technology similar to ours (or at least similar enough to receive and interpret the various "greeting signals" that have been sent out over the years)
      • originate from a planet; one that's not too hot nor not too cold
      • need an atmosphere
      • orbit a sun
      This is the main reason I get ticked off when people (no matter how smart they claim to be or actually are) discuss the possibility of life elsewhere in the universe. There is still a great deal of debate over what exactly life is, which characteristcs or traits should be included in the definition, and which should be excluded.

      And that's just life on this planet. An incredibly tiny sample of what the universe has to offer. Trying to deduce if life exists elsewhere in the universe by using our planet and its creatures as the baseline definition of "life" is like trying to deduce the overall structure of New York City by studying a single New Yorkian atom.

      Not only is it egotistical, but it's just plain stupid to assume that if "life" is found by us humans, that it will definitely have to be within the same limits as the biology on our planet. It may be true that life on Earth could not survive on Pluto or Mars or Venus. But if life on this planet evolved into existance under some fairly unlikely circumstances, why couldn't it have happened on those other ones listed above as well? The idea of a "life zone" that you mention above is absurd only unless you're talking about the chance of Earth-based organisms surviving within it.
    7. Re:1 != Many by overunderunderdone · · Score: 2

      Good points. The rare earth hypothesis only suggests that complex life AS WE KNOW IT will be rare. It says little or nothing about hypothetical OTHER systems of organizing life. The debate is between those that think life as we know it is common and those who think it is rare. The rare earth hypothesis makes a compelling argument that it would be quite rare. They freely aknowledge that some other as yet unknown system of "life" could exist and that their hypothesis is only valid for the system of life we know about.

      That being said. Do we have any reason to think that there are physical or chemical laws that predispose the universe to create the kind of spectacularly complex systems we call "life"? Anything we would identify as life has to be incredibly complex and highly organised. Molecular structures seem to be the only system in nature we know of capable of generating that kind of complexity and organization. And if you settle for molecularly based life you pretty much get stuck with carbon molecules and that gets you stuck with the rare earth hypothesis & the habitable zones you find so distasteful.

      We could hypothesize about some other ways of attaining the necessary complexity. How about a system based on mechanic principles (rather than chemical) A machine that stores information, harnesses power, reproduces (imperfectly) & evolves into ever more complex systems. We could imagine such a system working but It's hard to imagine such a system arising. The scifi standard "beings of pure energy" seems pretty far fetched. We know of no way for "pure energy" to be organized in the ways necessary to be anything complex enough to call "life". Perhaps something larger, the gravitational interactions between bodies in an individual star system don't seem to have the requisite complexity, how about entire galaxies? That's seems a little more concievable, all the complex interreactions between all of the component gravity wells seems a better candidate for playing host to the kind of complex organization we could call life. Still pretty far fetched, even all that gravitational complexity doesn't seem as fertile a field as molecular dynamics. Gravity only seems to work one way after all, it always attracts, molecules attract or repel & interact in lots of interesting ways that gravity wells don't. All those interreactions in compounds make all that information storage in DNA possible. We don't seem to be observing anything quite so complicated when looking at large masses. I'm sure there are other possiblities for the spontaneous arising of complex organizations we could call life but the fact that with what we know about physics and chemistry we can't even concieve of those possiblities suggests that they are also unlikely are thus as rare as we believe the kind of life we DO know about is.

    8. Re:1 != Many by Eil · · Score: 2


      Wow, finally. Someone who shares my thoughts on this subject. :)

      I forgot to mention it in my original post, but the following is my usual response whenever I get asked if I believe that "life" exists outside our own planet. (I might have originally heard it on a TV show or something a long time ago, but until then I'm claiming it as my own. :P )

      No, I don't believe that humans will ever find life as we define it. There are probably much more interesting things out there than that.

    9. Re:1 != Many by AJWM · · Score: 2

      The term "life zone" dates back forty years or so. Short for "life as we know it zone", if you like. Roughly speaking it's the distance from the primary star at which a planet has a reasonable chance of having liquid water, depending of course on the planet's gravity and composition.

      Of course they knew a lot less about the solar system in those days -- we now can reasonably suspect that liquid water can exist in places like below the ice on Europa. Furthermore, "life as we know it" now has a much larger meaning than it did then -- back then we were unaware of the rich life around deep ocean geothermal vents, or the stuff found within rocks, and so on.

      But yes, in general the term "life" is used to mean "CHON-chemistry based, self-replicating complex structures using a DNA/RNA based blueprint coding scheme". (Some folks waive the "self-replicating" part to allow viruses to be considered life.)

      There may well be other basis for what could be called life, but since we don't know what they are, it makes it rather hard to define the parameters within which to look for them, or how to recognize such "life as we don't know it" when we see it.

      --
      -- Alastair
  2. Ockham vs. Drake, the remix by nachoworld · · Score: 4, Interesting

    William of Ockham - "One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything."

    Francis Drake - "My whole life's work, from SETI to the Drake equation to the 1970's Arecibo radio transmission, depends on their being aliens somewhere in the Universe, so I'll pop up every year or so and assert that ET does exist so I won't be a failure.

    --

    ---
    I'm just an ordinary man with nothing to lose.
  3. Time vs. Certainty by stryders · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Couldn't one single an atom of Iron in a railroad track in Maine theoretically diffuse to California given enough time if they were connected?

    I'm always leery of the term "Certain" when a key premise is time on the order of billions of years.

  4. How can this view be proved or disproved? by taloobie · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The assumptions presented in the article cannot be proved or disproved. What does it help us to state "Not Life has as much chance as life" or "Consider our existence as proof".

    Although I tend to believe there is intelligent life in the universe outside of Earth, I'm not sure this argument serves as proof or even a good starting point for a proof.

    I think we ought to just be content saying there might be a chance that other intelligent life exists and we'll get to proving it through empirical data. Then if everything checks out we can go applying theory, probability, and predictions. Until then, this stuff is simply philosophy - the earth was flat until we found out it was not.

    1. Re:How can this view be proved or disproved? by pieces+of+poo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      There's a bit more to it than that. While I agree with you that we're still lacking important experimental data (that is, we haven't actually visited anywhere to take a look), we can do some intelligent guesswork.

      After all, philosophy has its place too. Without getting our minds around the possiblities, we will have very little success in conducting our search (or even convincing those with resources to finance the searching, though more likely than not, if life is found, it will be an accident during an economic/political endeavor).

    2. Re:How can this view be proved or disproved? by Kynde · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Although I tend to believe there is intelligent life in the universe outside of Earth, I'm not sure this argument serves as proof or even a good starting point for a proof.


      If you're worried about this you wouldn't probably understand any proof ever laid out to you either. It should go without saying that there won't be a proof, ever, until we find an ET or they find us. A lot like us atheists will have a hard time proving there isn't a god.

      This may sound trivial, but it really isn't.
      Proving something nonexisting outside a purely theoretical system is rather difficult. Because any attempt to show a contradiction in it's existence is quite impossible.

      The artice on the otherhand is more about showing a reasonable doubt, if you please, to justify believing in et life. More like showing the reasoning behind such beliefs. I, for one, found few rather interesting points of view there.

      --
      1 Earth is warming, 2 It's us, 3 it's royally bad, 4 we need to take action NOW
    3. Re:How can this view be proved or disproved? by WEFUNK · · Score: 2

      The assumptions presented in the article cannot be proved or disproved .... Until then, this stuff is simply philosophy - the earth was flat until we found out it was not.

      Actually, a number of observers have described SETI as junk science, pseudo-science, bad science, or non-science mainly because of the non-falsifiability of the main hypothesis. While there are differing ideas of what strictly constitutes the "scientific method" it is true that such non-falsifiable investigations don't necessarily meet the bar of being a real "science".

      However, I don't think philosophy is the right discription either - I prefer "exploration" - a venture that has traditionally led directly to many of the greatest scientific discoveries and revolutions. The value of exploration to scientific progress is undeniably large, although it is fair to subject such non-falsifiable investigations (especially expensive ones) to strong scrutiny and healthy skepticism.

      Perhaps "scientific exploration" is the best description since the bulk of participants are trained scientists who employ the tools and reasoning of science, and search for evidence that will be suitable for falsifiable experiment in the normal scientific sense. Aside from the criticism of non-falsifibiliy, most of the measures employed by these scientists are subject to normal scientific justification and accountabiilty - often refined through induction, statistics, peer review, and debate.

      --
      My next sig will be ready soon, but friends can beat the rush!
    4. Re:How can this view be proved or disproved? by nucal · · Score: 2
      An estimate for "L", the lifetime of civilizations capable of communicating with civilizations on other planets, can be estimated if you consider individual civilizations on Earth as data points. Based on an average of 60 civilizations on Earth, e.g. the Roman Empire, Babylonia, etc., L was on average ~420 years out of ~25,000 years total - extremely short. This could be used to argue that a galaxy has on average less than 4 communicating civilizations in total at any given time.

      An interesting aspect of the argument is that L decreases as societies become more technologically advanced (on Earth, at least). Whether this is the case after a certain "threshold" for technology is less clear, though, but it certainly seems plausible that at any given time there may be a species capable of communicating with no one else to talk to.

    5. Re:How can this view be proved or disproved? by susano_otter · · Score: 2
      A lot like us atheists will have a hard time proving there isn't a god.

      So then an Atheist's main occupation must be to run around debunking every instance of evidence that "god" does exist. Even if we assume that many instances of such evidence are indeed false (which seems like a reasonable assumption to me), don't you ever worry that sooner or later there will be proofs that you can't refute?

      And will you continue to be an atheist after such a point?

      Furthermore, since you admit that proof of "Not god" is difficult (logically impossible, I believe) to obtain, then upon what fundamental principles do you base your belief?

      And isn't "belief without proof" a definition of "faith" anyway?

      And wouldn't that make your brand of atheism simply another faith-based belief system?

      And doesn't that make any moral or ethic derived from your atheism equal in value to the morals and ethics of a theist belief system? That is, no more or less true or false than what the Muslims believe, or the Christians believe, or the Freemasons believe?

      --

      Any sufficiently well-organized community is indistinguishable from Government.

    6. Re:How can this view be proved or disproved? by Kynde · · Score: 2

      So then an Atheist's main occupation must be to run around debunking every instance of evidence that "god" does exist. Even if we assume that many instances of such evidence are indeed false (which seems like a reasonable assumption to me), don't you ever worry that sooner or later there will be proofs that you can't refute?

      First off, I don't run around trying to make others believe in something wether it's atheism or some religion. Wish they shared the same respect for me, but no...

      Secondly, since you ask I'll answer these briefly.

      don't you ever worry that sooner or later there will be proofs that you can't refute?

      Not one bit. There's been enough time for such to emerge (in any religion).

      Furthermore, since you admit that proof of "Not god" is difficult (logically impossible, I believe) to obtain, then upon what fundamental principles do you base your belief?

      The absence of proof for nonexistence is _Not_ an argument for existence.

      I could go on back at you with, since there's no proof nor indication of it's existence then why do you make such an assumption that there is some god?

      And isn't "belief without proof" a definition of "faith" anyway?

      Belief with proof can still be a faith, but let's not get into that. But yes, Atheism can be seen as a faith. Although, practically all religions are almost atheistic, they more or less deny all other gods and assume their own. Atheism, differs in not assuming their own god.

      And wouldn't that make your brand of atheism simply another faith-based belief system?

      Any religion or such is a faith based belief system. If we go down along that path, my understanding of physics is a faith based belief system.

      And please don't bother trying to get technical with me. Trust me, you will not succeed in arguing for god, there isn't enough ground for that. Smarter people have tried that for centuries. As with other equally smart people have tried argue against it.

      The source of atheism is quite practical, e.g. in my case it's closer to a "I dont give a fsck wether there is a god or not, because I dont see it anywhere, I dont see effect of it, I see no reason to care about, thus I choose not to make the assumption that there is a god.".

      Not that much different from wether there is ET life or not (to which I was referring to in my earlier post). In the absence of all proof, the more practical, the one with least further assumptions, gets my vote. In gods case, it's non existence, since for that I dont have to make a single assumption and pretty much evertything falls into place nice and smoothly. In ET life case it's "yes, there's probably ET life somewhere out there" (not UFOs on earth though), because for that also I dont have to make a single extra assumption.

      --
      1 Earth is warming, 2 It's us, 3 it's royally bad, 4 we need to take action NOW
    7. Re:How can this view be proved or disproved? by susano_otter · · Score: 2

      Thanks for the reply.

      Please note that I'm not arguing in favor of the existence of god, just expressing my curiousity about the reasoning behind your atheism.

      Also, I never said that absence of proof for noexistence counts as proof of existence.

      If I may sum up: your belief system consists mainly of not really caring one way or the other, and not having seen any evidence for the existence of god. Its foundation is the negative statement "I do not assume the existence of god", rather than the positive statement "I assume the nonexistence of god".

      Finally, you have not encountered any irrefutable proof of existence, and you don't expect to encounter any such proof in your lifetime, thus cementing the irrelevance of the whole issue for you.

      Is that correct?

      Please take these statements at face value. I'm not trying to push my view (whatever it may be) on you, and I'm not trying to judge your view either.

      --

      Any sufficiently well-organized community is indistinguishable from Government.

  5. well. by pieces+of+poo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If you play it by the numbers, then yes, life should occur frequently. By even the paltry data we've already collected, life should be abundant and soon even reachable.

    This has a unintended but frightening implication, however.

    Humans have existed as a sapient, technological species for approximately 30000 years (and that's generous, really). That means that in the cosmic equivalent of a the beginnings of a heartbeat, we've gone from caves to extraplanetary exploration, and our technology curve will only accelerate from here on out.

    Considering that it took almost no time to get here, it will take even less time to get to point where we would be leapfrogging across the galaxy, colonizing everywhere. Within the next 30,000 years we'll have had more than enough time to have distributed explorers to every inhabitable/explorable planet in the galaxy.

    The question, then, is why hasn't anyone found Earth yet, if the probability for life is so high? Either every civilization gets wiped out long before they can begin galactic exploration (without exception--a pretty difficult thing to imagine, unless you're an apocalyptic environmentalist), or, perhaps more frightening in an indirect sense, there simply aren't any other intelligent civilizations in the galaxy.

    You'd think that even if ancient astronauts had found Earth, we would have uncovered at least SOME sort of artifact. After all, playing the probabilities, if one civilization found us, it would be overwhelmingly likely that many, many others would be able to, and would. So far we've got nothing.

    It's a difficult reality to accept, but it may very well be that we're alone in the galaxy, and perhaps even in the universe.

    1. Re:well. by penginkun · · Score: 2, Insightful
      It's a difficult reality to accept, but it may very well be that we're alone in the galaxy, and perhaps even in the universe.

      You assume a few things:

      1-that other life is like us.
      2-that other life is interested in or capable of interstellar travel
      3-there is no third thing
      4-no poofters!

      There's no guarantee that other life-forms are anything remotely like us, assuming they exist at all. Assuming evolution is a valid model for the creation of life, we were extremely lucky to have developed this far. Indeed, the sheer variety of life on Earth is amazing when you consider that evolution's functions rely on random chance.

      I think it's more likely that other life in the galaxy (let's think small for the moment) is so totally alien and different from us that we wouldn't know it if it paraded up and down in front of us holding up a sign, in English, which read, "We're not from Earth!"

      Then again, I like "Enterprise", so what do I know? ;)

    2. Re:well. by sconeu · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Congratulations! You've just described Fermi's Paradox.

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
    3. Re:well. by AJWM · · Score: 3

      The probability of life may be high, but it doesn't necessarily follow that the probability of intelligent, tool-using life is equally high.

      Taking your 30,000 year figure for example, that's only 0.00001% of the time that there has been life on this planet. As a duration for a technological species capable of communicating across interstellar distances, that is incredibly optimistic -- our track record is barely a century so far, and that's being generous.

      --
      -- Alastair
    4. Re:well. by tswinzig · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The question, then, is why hasn't anyone found Earth yet, if the probability for life is so high?

      Maybe because a light year is a really long distance to travel, and Star Trek warp drives are not based on any reality in the universe?

      --

      "And like that ... he's gone."
    5. Re:well. by Em+Emalb · · Score: 3, Interesting

      "The question, then, is why hasn't anyone found Earth yet, if the probability for life is so high?"

      It might sound silly, but perhaps the need to explore is something only us earth-bound folks feel the need to do.

      What if, say, a greatly advanced life-form existed on Neptune, but was content to create a "utopian" life on their own planet, with no need to explore?

      The one thing we as humans fail in every time is that we assume all these aliens will be similar to us in their needs to explore, propogate, and conquer.

      Maybe the answer is that they don't care about us, until we come to them.

      Just some random ramblings

      --
      Sent from your iPad.
    6. Re:well. by alphaseven · · Score: 2

      Personally I don't see our civilization colonizing the universe, I see human civilization following this pattern:

      Agricultual Revolution -> Industrial Revoulution -> Information Revolution -> Matrix Style Pods That Will Extend Our Lives and Provide Us With Every Imaginable Pleasure

      Maybe other extraterrestrial civilizations have followed this pattern, if they can't get around the great distances to travel. It's a common science fiction construct that the last human will die jacked into some computer with a big smile on their face.

    7. Re:well. by MxTxL · · Score: 2

      Interestingly enough that arguement is useful in considering time travel. Ignoring the universe as a whole, and just focusing on the earth, the fact that no person has ever showed up in a really futuristic outfit in a time machine (and been actually scientifically examined and thought not a hoax) leads us to believe that such time travel will never be possible.

    8. Re:well. by WinBorg95 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      ----
      Considering that it took almost no time to get here, it will take even less time to get to point where we would be leapfrogging across the galaxy, colonizing everywhere. Within the next 30,000 years we'll have had more than enough time to have distributed explorers to every inhabitable/explorable planet in the galaxy.
      ----

      1. I beleive the "higher life forms" claim is already satisfied if there are worms present. If they are really demanding, think of rats.

      2. The earth might have been 'found' and visited, way back when, when they built stone henge and those outlines in the andes, but then they decided that we are too dumb and anyways we have only one opposable digit per appendage, so they left us alone and put a sign up; "Do not Disturb", so all that happens every now and then is a few adolecent aliens swoop by in a flying saucer they stole from their father and abduct a few people of whom they know that no-one will ever beleive them. And about the 'Artefacts', either they are there and we are looking at them, or ... no we haven't found any. Sort of a "Men in Green clean up team".

      3. Time. The biggest barrier in Space. If we are around only since a half a heartbeat, other civilisations might have sprung up, conquered the galaxy and then contracted Space Herpes and died out. Rise and Fall of empires.

      4. Life has evolved as many times as they claim, and as many times they have been in half a heartbeat at the brink of leaping from planet to planet, but then decided that they don't like they way the guys from the other continent pronounce "Smoerebrod" and start a war that destroys all inhabitants of the planet. Maybe not getting wiped out is the final IQ test.

      I am basically agreeing with you, but there too many factors that could make their theory work.

      Flup
      theflup@yahoo.com

      --
      People are more violently opposed to fur than leather because its easier to harass rich women than motorcycle gangs.
    9. Re:well. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      How about this: Fermi seems to assume exponential growth in the size of the "empires". This is a bad model for just about everything except in the very short term. The best you'll do is linear growth in the long term, which isn't nearly as overwhelming.

    10. Re:well. by kingkade · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Well, i thought that one very popular opposition to that paradox was the hypothesis that maybe every civilization that has ever existed hasn't survived long enough to be so adventursome/imperialistic.
      Perhaps an overwhelming number of forms of life never even come close to becoming intelligent enough (no matter how long evolution has a crack at them :) to explore space.
      Of those tiny fraction maybe:
      • they have been wiped out by disease or astronomic cataclysm (sp?) which is very posssible for every civilization given the generous millions of years it took us to evolve (heck, its already happended once 65m yrs ago that could have almost wiped mammals out as well as prehistoric animals/plants)
      • they have caused their own demise.
      The latter is probably the most likely of the two, as anyone looking around at the world today can attest to; you've got a bunch of crazies ready to kill other people in the name of [an invisible man] and plenty of ways to do it. Nations fighting for oil, riots, famine, poverty...
      Name yer poison: shall it be deadly biological agents, nukes, or world-wide war? :(
      Maybe we are just destined to destroy ourselves.
      And maybe that old twilight zone episode was right: people are the same throughout the universe.
    11. Re:well. by SectoidRandom · · Score: 2

      I would agree more so with your first point, even here on Earth it is thought that life has been all but wiped out not just once 65million years ago, but at least five times in the past 500million years! Not to mention the ten's of more minor, but still hugely distruptive events over the same time.. (link: http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/crater.html)

      Your second point well maybe i'm a hopeless optimist, but i think it's a rediculous idea. The thought that we would go against everything we know, ie the fundamental instinct of survival, and just blow ourselves up for some petty war or whatever, doesnt seem so likely to me. Sure we'll commit mass genocide, use chemical weapons, and firebomb/nuke hundreds of thousands of civilians, but we wont bring it apon ourselves, many of us will continue to survive despite our worst efforts...

    12. Re:well. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      Leo Szilard is rumoured to have answered Fermi about this paradox: ``Maybe they're already here, and you just call them Hungarians.''

      For you youngsters, Leo was talking about the brightest man ever, i.e. John von Neumann.

    13. Re:well. by a_n_d_e_r_s · · Score: 2

      It can also means that we are the first to actually come this far.

      There might be millions of planets who are just hunters or have even started farming but none that has gotten to the industrial revolution.

      The improvemnts in technology in the last 50 years are remarkable. Maybe we are the ones who's are leading the pack.

      Or it may be so that it exist many thousands that are just 100 years ahead of us but all are spread at least 1000 ly from each other so no one will know each other for the next 900 years....

      Space is very big and it takes time for the signals to travel from other civilisations.

      --
      Just saying it like it are.
    14. Re:well. by Lemmy+Caution · · Score: 2

      There's also another category of life: life that is intelligent, discursive, and tool-using, but hasn't developed technologically-oriented civilizations. Only in a tiny handful of centuries have we learned the use of electricity, developed any useful understanding of physics and chemistry, and the like. It's more sensible to think of our scientistic culture as a fluke than as part of a normal progression - the vast majority of cultures and civilizations on this planet were not on a "path" that led inevitably to space.

    15. Re:well. by Peter+Trepan · · Score: 2, Insightful

      All creatures who evolved through the pressures of natural selection have one thing in common: They are interested in the continued replication of their DNA (or other self-replicating instruction code.)

      Chimpanzees may be nearly as intelligent as humans, but I bet we'd rather clear-cut their jungle to the ground than enjoy the pleasure of their company, if we could build houses with the wood. The advancement of our species always trumps friendship with theirs. And humans are a social species!

      If we appear to be the only technologically advanced beings in the universe, maybe we should breathe a sigh of relief.

      --

      Step into a huge movement. Don't Tread In Me.

  6. We anthropomorphize more than we think by Standfast · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I am always amazed at the extent of humanity's arrogance, or at least our blind optimism, when I read about the logical arguments about the likelihood of intelligent life outside the solar system.

    Perhaps there is, but I can't imagine limiting ourselves to looking for multicellular, carbon-based, or RNA-based life, or for that matter any form of life patterned upon that on Earth. It seems to me astronomically more likely that highly organized or self-conscious matter found elsewhere would not be recognizable to us as what we would call "life".

    I have slowed down my participation in the SETI@home project because I have become increasingly skeptical that other life forms would happen to care enough about radio frequency communications to build a transmitter. I consider it at least equally likely that extraterrestrial life forms are more interested in gazing at their own navels than evolving the means for the complex physical arrangements of materials necessary for instrumentalities designed to emit radio signals.

    The yearning to communicate with other beings is both honored as a deeply "human" characteristic, and asserted as a likely goal of extraterrestrial life, but I think we have to choose one or the other, and get realistic about the chances of finding other societies sufficiently similar to us that we could detect each other.

    1. Re:We anthropomorphize more than we think by MxTxL · · Score: 2

      Thing is, it's an odds based game.

      If one in a million galaxies has planetary systems... and one out of a million planetary systems has a planet that 'could' support life and if one in a TRILLION of those spawned life, and if one in a TRILLION of those spawned something that we could recognize as alive and then one in a million of those became intelligent and then one in a million of those decided to emit radio signals, there would still be an infinate number of them spread througout the universe.

      Granted, they might be pretty far apart... but it would be silly of us not to be listening.

      Looking at it this way, intelligent life IS out there, it's just probably too remote to ever be seen or found or travelled to or even recognized.

    2. Re:We anthropomorphize more than we think by nEoN+nOoDlE · · Score: 2

      so, lemme get this straight... what you're saying is that I won't be having sex with any hot blue extraterrestrial chicks anytime soon?

      --
      Don't trust a bull's horn, a doberman's tooth, a runaway horse or me.
    3. Re:We anthropomorphize more than we think by TH4L35 · · Score: 2

      Perhaps there is, but I can't imagine limiting ourselves to looking for multicellular, carbon-based, or RNA-based life, or for that matter any form of life patterned upon that on Earth. It seems to me astronomically more likely that highly organized or self-conscious matter found elsewhere would not be recognizable to us as what we would call "life".

      How is it then, that when we look around out there we see a couple of hundred billion stars (that's in our galaxy alone) shining away, all cheerfully following a predictable life path of stellar evolution? Thanks to the fundamental physical constraints of the universe, once collected in massive quantities, Hydrogen happens to make an ideal nuclear fuel. Its not completely impossible for a star to be 'burning' something other than Hydrogen (Red giants Fuse every element up to Iron in their old rage), but no star is likely to some into existence in such a state.

      The point I'm having difficulty making is that -due to the physical properties of the universe- carbon based, multicellular, and even RNA equipped lifeforms are bound to be more likely than anything else, as these are the most efficient and simple paths to life.

      I would hazard to guess that some of the higher order items like intelligence and communication and societal interaction would be far more likely to be completely unrecognizable and 'alien'. Chances are that their are many more potential paths to those states than there are to the state of life itself.

      Which I suppose would imply that life is capable of a further order of 'creation' than physics alone is, even though physical law itself is the same foundation which allows for life to be exist. It all makes one's head spin. But in a good way :)

      --
      When Thales was asked what was difficult, he said, "To know one's self." And what was easy, "To advise another."
    4. Re:We anthropomorphize more than we think by Surt · · Score: 2

      These numbers are maybe a little off.

      As a rough estimate:
      1 trillion (10^12) or less galaxies in the universe.
      1 trillion (10^12) or less stars per galaxy.

      10^24 stars total in the universe. Probably less.

      That isn't quite room for an infinite number of technological civilizations, but it could hold quite a few.

      Being generous, and dropping your first search term, if one in a million planetary systems (10^6) has a planet with life support, and one in a trillion (10^12) spawned life, and one in 10^12 had something we recognized as life, and one in 10^6 became intelligent and emitted radio signals (again, being generous and dropping your last term), then we're all alone most likely, because you've come up to one in 10^36, and that's dropping another 10^18th in your claim.

      On the other hand, IMO, the odds are much better. I would just guess that most advanced races just get depressed about the whole long term entropy problem and commit suicide long before bothering to talk to us.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
  7. another possibility by Indy1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That either FTL (faster then Light) travel is utterly impossibly, or that civilations that discover FTL are few and far between.

    --
    Lawyers, MBA's, RIAA? A jedi fears not these things!
    1. Re:another possibility by TheFrood · · Score: 2

      That either FTL (faster then Light) travel is utterly impossibly, or that civilations that discover FTL are few and far between.

      I've seen a few posts here assuming that FTL travel is necessary for any kind of interstellar exporation or colonization. It isn't.

      Even by conservative projections of technology development, it will soon be possible for starships to reach a significant fraction of the speed of light (say, 10%) by using lightsails pushed by lasers in solar orbit. (The ships would decelerate at their destination by releasing a second sail that would reflect the light from the home laser back to the ship.)

      At 0.1c, a ship could cross the galaxy in about a million years -- an eyeblink compared to the lifespan of the universe, which is measured in tens of billions of years. Granted, one ship couldn't make that journey, so you'd need some kind of self-replicating robot probe that built new lasers at each star it stopped at, but the point is that the galaxy can be explored in a reasonable amount of time at speeds well less than the speed of light.

      TheFrood

      --
      If you say "I'll probably get modded down for this..." then I will mod you down.
    2. Re:another possibility by mc6809e · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Even by conservative projections of technology development, it will soon be possible for starships to reach a significant fraction of the speed of light (say, 10%) by using lightsails pushed by lasers in solar orbit. (The ships would decelerate at their destination by releasing a second sail that would reflect the light from the home laser back to the ship.)

      The problem with this is

      KE = 1/2 mv^2

      Hitting a 1 mg particle at 10% the speed of light would do serious damage. Thats about 10 times as much energy in a 1g bullet at 300 m/s.

      So while warp-drive might not be needed, shields sure would.

    3. Re:another possibility by jeremyp · · Score: 2

      If you start from the middle and work outwards, you could do it in 50,000 years at the speed of light. Having said that, it may prove impossible in a practical sense for a number of human beings + the equipment required to keep them alive to get to anything like that speed.

      --
      All I want is a secure system where it's easy to do anything I want. Is that too much to ask ~~ Randall Munroe
    4. Re:another possibility by Fweeky · · Score: 2

      Don't forget relativity; it's not 30k years for anyone on the ship. Push a decent fraction of c and you can cross just about any distance within your lifetime.

      Of course, you'd need a *lot* of energy and some really quite impressive shielding (say, a huge chunk of ice you can refill just about anywhere, ala The Songs of Distant Earth), but given the timeframe we could have to develop that sort of technology, it's not that far out.

      Of course, for an external observer, it would be impressive to cross the galaxy in 30k years ;)

    5. Re:another possibility by Fweeky · · Score: 3
      The ships would decelerate at their destination by releasing a second sail that would reflect the light from the home laser back to the ship
      What?!

      It launches a second sail ahead of itself, the laser hits that and it reflects the light back; the second sail gets pushed away and lost, but if you can focus it you can keep it pointed at the main craft and slow it down.

      I'd draw a bit of ASCII art, but SlashDot is too lame to let me use spaces. Instead, look at something like this paper, describing a roundtrip lightsail.

    6. Re:another possibility by wurp · · Score: 2

      If one civilization decides to build self-replicating probes that spread across the universe at STL speeds, terraforming the planets they land on (or perhaps just building explore-bots, or perhaps growing an entire civilization from data seeds carried along for the ride), that civilization radically improves its chances for survival. Such probes could cover much of the universe in quite a short period of time, relative to the age of the universe.

      Assume that the probes travel at .1c, and every 10 light years they encounter enough raw material to spend 6 months (probably too long, but let's over-estimate) building new probes to send to all of the nearby neighbors. This would cover the galaxy in about 1.5 million years.

      So if any one of those 100 billion stars in our galaxy had intelligent life that hit that point any time 1.5 million years ago or longer, at least one of those civilizations should own the galaxy.

      To my mind, there are only a few possible answers: either there is some super-powerful civilization that conserves new life, we live in some kind of simulation run by other intelligent life, or intelligent life so rarely makes it to that point that the chances of there being another civilization are slim.

      The problem is that natural selection should apply on these scales like it doesn on a planetary scale. Only the life forms that breed from planet to planet are likely to survive in the long run. Where are they?

    7. Re:another possibility by tgibbs · · Score: 2
      If 'aliens' were colonizing the cosmos like rabbits and there are a billion suitable worlds out there, why would they want to come here anyways? I mean, why waste their time/resources colonizing such an abused world as this one?
      They could be fairly close (by galactic standards) and not even know we are here, assuming no means of faster-than-light observation. We simply haven't been advertising our presence for all that long.
  8. Timing by Michael+Woodhams · · Score: 5, Informative

    We have a sample size of only one, and that this sample resulted in intelligent life is a given (else we wouldn't be here to make observations on it.) We do however have some timing information. From this we see:

    1) Life evolved on Earth pretty much as soon as conditions were stable enough to allow it. This suggests that bacterial life is highly likely.

    2) It took at least hundreds of millions of years to develop Eukariotic life (big cells with a nucleus, such as we are made of, as opposed to bacteria.) This means that this step might be rare.

    3) It took about 3 billion years to evolve differentiated multicellular life. This means that this step could be exceedingly rare.

    4) Multicellular life evolved into a vast array of designs in a just a few million years (the 'Cambrian explosion'.) This means that once multicellular life starts, it will quickly produce complex forms.

    5) From the Cambrian explosion to us is something like 500 million years. This is an intermediate time scale that makes it hard to judge how likely intelligent life is.

    Disclaimer: I'm not 100% sure of some of the timescales above. It is all from memory.

    Disclaimer 2: The Edicara fauna complicate the picture above on the origin of multicellular life, depending on how you interpret them.

    Disclaimer 3: All the above is merely probabilistic. E.g. if the evolution of bacterial life is very rare, there is still a 5% chance that it will have occurred during the first 5% of the available time. Therefore we can't strongly exclude the possiblity that the evolution of bacterial life is hard.

    --
    Quattuor res in hoc mundo sanctae sunt: libri, liberi, libertas et liberalitas.
  9. the real question is by g4dget · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Why would intelligent life want to talk to earth? Indeed, why would it want to talk to anyone? If there is other intelligent life out there that managed to survive more than a few thousand years, maybe they just figured out that staying home taking care of their own planet is a lot more pleasant than traveling around the universe in tin cans or holding conversations with hundreds of years of lag.

  10. Two schools of thought. by Restil · · Score: 5, Insightful

    When it comes to Drake related wonderings.

    There's the thought that its almost an absolute certainty that intellegent life has evolved elsewhere, and probably in vast numbers of individual civilizations.

    On the other hand, the theory goes that within a few hundred years, we'll have the ability to (and therefore probably will) send generation ships to other solar systems. If we are to assume that 500 years after each colony is settled, it launches its own generation ship to the next solar system, the entire galaxy could be colonized in a matter of a few million years. This is of course assuming that most of the colonies don't manage to kill themselves off.

    The point being, since a few million years is a cosmic blink of the eye, if any intellegent life DID exist, either it should be everywhere already, or all previous incarnations have wiped themselves out before they've had a chance to travel beyond their home world. Either that, or they're leaving us alone. After all, we ARE rather far away from anything. Its possible that a 4.3 lightyear stretch is too far to consider useful. And its also possible that we're the result of such a colonization project and everyone forgot about it, or were dumped here without knowing to begin with. Or maybe they knew and simply never passed it on. Its not like a lot of folklore has lasted for 30K years.

    So, to recap this rant. Assuming there IS intellegent life, its already everywhere it wants to be, and either we're a part of it, or it's decided to completely leave us alone.

    -Restil

    --
    Play with my webcams and lights here
    1. Re:Two schools of thought. by Artifex · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And its also possible that we're the result of such a colonization project and everyone forgot about it, or were dumped here without knowing to begin with. Or maybe they knew and simply never passed it on. Its not like a lot of folklore has lasted for 30K years.

      I don't think this is really something to put much stock in, considering the fossil record. Given the evidence that seems to support the idea that our species' evolution has taken millions of years from proto-hominid to today, there's not a lot of room for the idea that we are a lost colony.

      Even if someone did settle this planet millions of years ago, something quite catastrophic would have had to happen in order to wipe out any fossil record of more advanced creatures than what we have seen so far. Which means we'd not be real descendants of theirs, anyway.

      --
      Get off my launchpad!
    2. Re:Two schools of thought. by MxTxL · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There is another possibility. It could well be that life will tend to spread itself like the plague, but it will resemble a growing sphere with center wherever the life became intelligent at.

      The reason we think life elsewhere exists is because there is so much space that even if the odds on a planet producing intelligent life were 10^trillion against, there would be still be trillions of intelligent societies.

      When you start to play with the odds, the distances to such life start to change. Better the odds, the closer are the planets that produce life. Worse odds means planets are farther away. The fact that other life forms haven't found us already leads me to believe that they are REALLY far away and never will contact us.

      All intelligent life may begin to spread across the universe, but even at near light speed, it's entirely possible that the sphere encompassing their spread will never intersect any others. There is, afterall, a lot of space out there.

    3. Re:Two schools of thought. by mclearn · · Score: 2

      Then again, we could be the product of our own planet's evolutionary path combined with some insight from a space-faring race. This could explain the sorts of things we see when examining ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs.

      Of course, both Drake's equation and the above are mere speculation, so anything is possible.

    4. Re:Two schools of thought. by nEoN+nOoDlE · · Score: 2

      or were dumped here without knowing to begin with.

      yeah... we're probably the decendents of telephone sanitizers and hair stylists.

      --
      Don't trust a bull's horn, a doberman's tooth, a runaway horse or me.
    5. Re:Two schools of thought. by jeremyp · · Score: 2

      There's nothing of extra terrestrial origin in Egyptian hieroglyphs. There can't be because the events you speak of happened a long time before the invention of hieroglyphs.

      Two million years ago the planet of Golgafrincham loaded all of its useless members of society (advertising execs, hairdressers, telephone sanitizers etc) into a big space ship and fired it at Earth. The survivors of the crash supplanted the indigenous proto-intelligent mammals and became what is now the human race. The rest of the Golgsfrinchams died out tragically from a disease caught from dirty telephones.

      I know it's tru, I read it in a book.

      --
      All I want is a secure system where it's easy to do anything I want. Is that too much to ask ~~ Randall Munroe
    6. Re:Two schools of thought. by gosand · · Score: 2

      Why does everyone have to assume that other civilizations are more advanced than us? All it would take would be one meteor, or a few good volcanic eruptions to wipe us out. Then all of our technological advancement is for naught. The other assumption is that life on other planets is like ours, that has the desire, ability, and raw materials to even consider space exploration. What if our planet had 3x the gravity it does? Our entire world would be different. "Life" doesn't mean people. Of course we want to think that we are the epitome of evolution, and we are what all life forms aspire to be like. I highly doubt this is the case though.

      --

      My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.

    7. Re:Two schools of thought. by Sloppy · · Score: 2
      And its also possible that we're the result of such a colonization project and everyone forgot about it, or were dumped here without knowing to begin with. Or maybe they knew and simply never passed it on. Its not like a lot of folklore has lasted for 30K years.

      That smells almost (not quite, but almost) as bad as creationism. If we're a colony, then the colonization would have had to have happened, much longer than just 30k years ago. More like two or three billion. The fossil and genetic evidence is just too strong.

      --
      As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
  11. Yeah, but what *kind* of life? by Myco · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Saying that life sponteneously arises easily in Earth-like environments is one thing. It even seems plausible. But we too easily forget that there's a huge gap between the primitive organic molecules such a scenario describes and the sort of sentient life we're looking for with SETI.

    Personally, I find it hard to get worked up about ET algae or whatever. I mean, it's a good thing in terms of implications for habitability of other worlds, terraforming, etc. But every time someone trots out an argument about how easy it is for life to arise in the universe, people assume that once you have life at all, you have intelligent life.

    If life has arisen independently on Earth multiple times, how many times has it produced humans? And by this I mean, how many times did humans evolve, from scratch, our of distinct gene pools? I would have a hard time believing any answer greater than 1 (or less than 1, for that matter). So the more times life has formed and *not* evolved into sentience, the worse the odds are that it will have done so in other environments.

    And even if sentient life has evolved on some reasonably nearby planet, what are the odds that we'll inhabit the same slice of time as them? Human beings have been a technological species for an infinitesimal time slice compared to the age of the galaxy, and at the rate we're going that time slice may not last much longer. If this is representative of sentient species in general, it would be very rare for two species to chance upon the necessary coincidence of space and time to actually meet each other. Sad but true.

  12. Possible Fermi Paradox Solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I have liked this theory ever since I read about it.

    Fermi had realized that given the age of the universe, and postulating a period of a thousand years for an intelligent space-faring race to colonize a planet and send out further colony ships, the galaxy should be fully colonized by now.

    In 1967, the first gamma ray burst was observed by satellite-borne detectors intended to watch for violations of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. In the last few years, high energy astrophysists have finally begun to understand GRBs more fully.

    But could GRBs answer the question posed by Fermi's Paradox concerning the apparent lack of intelligent life in the galaxy? This abstract and linked article examines the strikingly similar timeframes between the occurance of GRBs in a galaxy, and the time it has taken intelligence to arise on Earth.

  13. Rights by j_w_d · · Score: 2

    I am not at all convinced that there are such things as "natural" rights, especially inalienable ones. Constitutional rights are another issue and far more deserving of defense. On the other hand, as a statment of an ideal of equality, then "rights" become essential in understanding just how equal an idealist thinks we should be.

    --
    ------ The only greater hazard to your liberty than n politicians is n+1 politicians.
  14. We make a lot of assumptions by romec · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It has been brought up several times that an advanced civilization would have propagated throughout our galaxy. It is important to keep in mind the size of our galaxy. I have been brought up believing in the unlimited nature of technology, but what if it really is impossible to travel at speeds greater than or close to c? Using the technology from our sci-fi it is easy to spread throughout the galaxy; but if warp drives and jumping through wormholes isn't feasible, how far is it worth exploring? Another interesting thought, if another civ has advanced to the point of interstellar travel, then clearly their tech is WAY beyond ours. Its pretty cocky to think that we could detect them, we just got to the point where we can detect radio waves (just a little over a hundred years) Perhaps they don't want us to detect them, maybe they don't want to interfere. Maybe they do interfere and we just aren't aware. Just a long shot analogy here, but are ants cognizant of our lawnmower or if we dropped food. We may only be ants in comparison to a an alien race that has mastered interstellar travel.

  15. There is lots of intellegent life! by teamhasnoi · · Score: 3, Funny

    Unfortunately it's hard to find on /. :P

  16. convergent traits. by Camel+Pilot · · Score: 2

    However, a lifeform that engages in exploring, propogating and conquering (aka rape, pillage and plunder) would be effective at replicating their genes.

    Would it not be likely that these traits would appear in alien evolutionary environments? Many examples exist of evolutionary convergergence traits such as wings (birds, bats, insects).

  17. Re:ET Life by Anonymous+Cowdog · · Score: 2, Insightful

    When these discussions about probability of life come up, I always think of the massive amount of parallel processing that is provided by the surface area of an entire planet, and the large amount of processing time that is available for the task.

    Especially regarding the probability that life will start in a puddle... Or in some wet clay, just as well... but taking puddles as an example:

    Take a square mile of earth. Picture a kind of primordial earth, the surface seething with puddles. Maybe, say, one square foot of puddle for every four square foot of earth. That's
    6,969,600 puddles per square mile. There are 197,000,000 square miles on earth; assume 1/10 of these are land, so multiply 6.9 million by 1.97 million: 13,730,112,000,000 puddles. Oh, then multiply that by 365 billion or so days, to yield the number of daily heating/cooling cycles provided by the rising and setting of the sun. That's 5,011,490,880,000,000,000,000,000, right? So maybe I've overestimated the surface area, or the number of viable puddles. OK, divide that by 10 to the third or fourth; it's still a pretty darn big number.

    Next time some Creationist lectures you about how improbable it is that life started in a puddle, be sure to multiply whatever probability they provide by that number.

    Of course there's that detail about cells, and multiple cells, and the "sudden" leap to intelligence (forgetting a few billion years here and there). Well, that would require... evolution! But then, this is starting to look like a troll, and I didn't mean it that way.

  18. Re:Occam's Razor by pigeon768 · · Score: 2, Informative
    Occam's Razor is not a "theory" in any sense of the word. It cannot and will not ever be proved. Physicists use it so much as a "divining rod" simply because of the fact that in so many cases, it's correct. IOW if they know that the answer they're looking for is one of 2 equations, they'll test the simpler one first.

    Gravity is described as f = m(1)m(2)G/r^2. Einstein's theory of relativity is described as E = mc^2. F=ma, D = 1/2at^2 + vt + d(0), PV = nRT etc. etc... All seemingly complicated things described by very simple formulas. The vast majority of phenomena in physics are described by relatively simple equations. (major exceptions being any form of turbulence or a result of turbulence)

    Then again, Occam's Razor doesn't apply very well to life sciences, which is what this is about.

  19. Life numbers by j_w_d · · Score: 2

    I believe that your numbers are suspect in several ways. First, there is no guarantee that faster than light travel is possible. If it isn't, then the human exploration of this galaxy will take far longer than 30 ky. Next, while life may be very likely, there is nothing to say that "intelligence," as we know it, is common, or even an adaptive advantage over evolutionary spans of time. Piers Anthony IIRC suggested in The Macroscope that most intelligent life simply failed to survive the industrial period. The book was fiction, but the suggestion is appropriate.

    Cultural and technical changes - progress if you will (but I won't) - require lots of head space. "Traditional" cultures are traditional because they are stored solely in the heads of their carriers. Traditional cultures are extremely vulnerable to the loss of members, if the society is too complex. Thus simple cultures survive by redundant storage of the essential information that defines the operational aspects of the society. Once the ability to store information "extrasomatically" comes along (i.e. writing) more complex civilizations become possible and technical change can occur more rapidly because a literate civilization can support intellectual as well as craft specialization.

    If you consider it, it is fairly obvious that population growth rates and technical advances heterodyne on each other. The problem that can affect the number of intelligent species (as we understand intelligence) that can make into space comes as the growth of population passes the "knee" in a yeast growth type curve. At that point we have entered a race between environmental degradation, technological advance, and the exhaustion of critical resources. If and only if technological advance can establish a population off planet, if and only if technological advance can offset environmental degradation and resource scarcity can species then start to really explore space.

    You can imagine from this that some intelligent species with very slowly growing, or stable populations probably have little reason, except perhaps curiousity, for leaving a planet. More might reach the yeast growth stage, fail in the technical-environmental-resource arena and become extinct or under go drastic reductions. Another few may actually make it off their home planet and into interplanetary or perhaps intersellar space.

    Probably on a majority, nothing we could recognize as intelligence ever appears.

    --
    ------ The only greater hazard to your liberty than n politicians is n+1 politicians.
  20. The Prime Directive by Malicious · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Perhaps there are hundreds of other species out there, perhaps they all have seen us, but kept out of our way. An idea of such a "Prime Directive" isn't such a bad one. When Man-Kind does explore, and "seek out new life, and new civilizations" i'm sure that eventually, someone will push to ensure that we do not disturb life, from it's natural path.

    It seems logical, that any intelligent alien life, which came across us, would take note, that we are moving along quite quickly with our technology, and who are they to come in and say "You've got it all wrong!" Leave us be, and wait for us to catch up. If these aliens are there, they're simply employing a trait my father taught me years ago.
    Give a man a fish, you've fed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, you've fed him for life.

    --
    01101001001000000110000101101101001000000110001001 10000101110100011011010110000101101110
    1. Re:The Prime Directive by geekoid · · Score: 2

      Ignore a competitive species, he'll feed on you one day, destroy a competitive species, and you'll feast today.

      it would be in there best interest to either destroy us, or assemilate us into there society.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  21. We won't be contacted because... by Boss,+Pointy+Haired · · Score: 2, Interesting

    if the civilisation is less advanced than us, then they can't.

    or

    if the civilisation is more advanced than us, then they have nothing to gain.

    I think.

  22. Behavioral explanations for Fermi's paradox by dexter+riley · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yours isn't a silly explanation for the great silence, but consider this. Several proposed solutions to the Fermi paradox assume that the aliens build utopias, or destroy themselves, or have a 'prime directive' preventing them from contacting our primitive world. The problem is, any one civilization could sweep through the entire galaxy on a time scale of millions of years. So any behavioral explaination of the aliens' absence requires that ALL the alien civilizations in the galaxy have one of these reasons for not spreading through the rest of the galaxy. If there are hundreds of thousands of other civilizations in the galaxy (which some 'optimistic' Drake followers have calculated) then the odds that NONE of them had the drive to have colonized, explored, or, heck, even eaten Earth (for you Greg Bear fans out there) Earth is very very low.

    I personally believe that the development of tool-using, communicative intelligence is very difficult in evolutionary terms, and is thus exceedingly rare. Remember how quickly unicellular life developed on earth, and how late intelligent life arose. At most, there may be only a few civilizations scattered through our galaxy; but it is very possible that we are the first, the only technical civilization in the galaxy.

  23. V - the miniseries and Stephen Gould by xSterbenx · · Score: 3, Interesting
    For example, had the dinosaurs and half of all other species not been wiped out 65 million years ago, we wouldn't be here, stacking their bones in our museums

    I recently rewatched "V - the series" and "V - the final battle". For those few here that haven't seen it, a bunch of seemingly humanoid aliens come to earth. However, these aliens end up being lizards who wear human skin to disguise themselves. A group of partisans realize the intent behind these aliens (to steal our water and use us for food).

    One of the partisans makes what I consider a pretty good point (and makes this whole post on-topic). He notions the idea that unlike Earth, where some sort of disaster (meteor) wipes out many of the reptile species, the alien planet had no such disruption and the reptiles were free to evolve into sentient human-like beings.

    Perhaps this is far-fetched. However, it is possible given our current idea of evolution. Why couldn't reptiles evolve into conscious beings? I'm not very knowledgable about the physiology of the human brain, but I do remember that temperature may have been a big factor in our evolution. The again, the word may implies that no one really knows exactly how evolution occured, and until we do I would say it is possible that reptiles may very well have been a predominent life on this planet if not for the meteor or whatever that wiped out all the dinosaurs.

    1. Re:V - the miniseries and Stephen Gould by TH4L35 · · Score: 2

      A) Dinosaurs were not reptiles.

      B) Any multicellular lifeform (including reptiles, dinosaurs, trees, mammals, etc etc) could POTENTIALLY evolve intelligence, but intelligence is a VERY steep/complicated peak of the genetic 'design space' that represents phenotypic possibility. From some areas of the design space (including those that are currently occupied by many species) it may be nigh impossible to make the jump to the base of such a peak and begin the climb. In other words, if you don't have things like endothermy (warm-bloodedness), binocular vision, quick reproduction cycle, relatively large mass, manipulating limbs, etc, etc, then your chances of developing sapience are that much more astronomical. The evidence lies all around us. With the exception of manipulators (and that is a big chicken & egg issue in and of itself), most mammals (for example) are fundamentally similar to us. But so far, humans seem to be the only really smart species of mammal. Having all the necessary environmental conditions and the genetic potential requirements all aligned perfectly for intelligence to even have a chance, is quite unlikely.

      C) Think about this: perhaps we have already started up the wrong slope, and the limits of our brand of intelligence are far less than some other unaccessible (from our current location) area of design space. All those abundant aliens might just consider us mere animals too stupid to trifle with.

      --
      When Thales was asked what was difficult, he said, "To know one's self." And what was easy, "To advise another."
    2. Re:V - the miniseries and Stephen Gould by orkysoft · · Score: 2

      Another possibile explanation for the static crocodile species is that they're already perfectly adapted to their environment.

      They can swim well, bite well, and digest well, and they can survive long periods without food. In their natural habitats, they're excellent survivors. There's no need to evolve new features -- in fact, it seems like those crocodiles that have those, don't propagate them.

      They're even bulletproof!

      Of course, this doesn't exclude that there might be some other factor that determines the mutation rate of different kinds of species.

      --

      I suffer from attention surplus disorder.
  24. Re:focus on what's here by orthogonal · · Score: 2, Funny
    Folding@home.
    That's why my CPU utilization is always 100%!

    Ob OnTopic Tie-In: Because I'll get cancer long before you'll chat with aliens.

  25. Old Argument + Same Logic = Same Conclusion by Peahippo · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Look, this is an old argument that has the informational gene for immortality -- it just won't die, but it should (or at least hibernate until truly new data shows up).

    The Earth radiates like a small star in the radio region, from our civilization's emissions. Yet we don't hear a peep of anything like that out of the rest of the universe, and there's no obvious evidence of stellar engineering to be seen either. Where are other forms of intelligent, information-exchanging, perhaps macro-engineering life? Well, it could be they aren't macro-engineers, or that they don't pass information like we expect them to.

    But it could also be that there isn't any other life at all, or just low-level forms that we won't be talking to.

    We only have one assured point of data to answer the Life question, and that's not good enough. One point doesn't "trend"; it has an infinite number of slopes; you can fit any curve to it. You can hardly expect to win your case for universal life without evidence of detecting anything outside of the Earth. Even other planets in the same system show no evidence of engineering or biochemical activity, and we've been looking at them for decades with some pretty good instruments.

    We must keep looking, sure, but the evidence is pretty well on the side of a lifeless galaxy. Be scientists for once, and ditch that superstitious need for alien races and galactic empires. The facts are overwhelmingly against alien life, and until we expand our methods of searching, that's how we must judge it if we are to pay any due respect to logic.

    On the hope side of things, our methods and assumptions can change with more data. For instance, it was taken for granted (although well-enough thought out) that if aliens existed, biochemistries between two such races would almost always be dissimilar. One race might settle on carbon, oxygen and sunlight, and another on silicon, hydrogen and geothermal energy. But recent theories and observations suggest that cosmic gas clouds harbor molecules that can start biochemistry upon planets. Since such clouds are large, it could be that this seeding process could produce similar biochemisty across different star systems. Hence, across the lightyears, biochemically-similar lifeforms might be able to arise if the seeding process has the potential we theorize. So the basic philosophy about alien differences has changed ... perhaps our philosophy about the SETI will also change.

    Myself, personally, I figure we will need Jodie Foster {tm} to take up radio astronomy before we get the signals we are looking for.

    --
    [also misbehaves on Kuro5hin as Peahippo]
    1. Re:Old Argument + Same Logic = Same Conclusion by brokeninside · · Score: 2
      We have one data point for the evolution of life.
      Extrapolating a single data point to the universal set is invalid reasoning in the spheres of science, mathematics and logic.
      No data points for the non-evolution of life.
      Technically speaking this is true. But I feel obligated to point out that there are also no data points that the universe is not filled with invisible pink kittens who live on an as of yet undiscovered ethereal plan. Strictly speaking, one cannot prove a negative based on empiracal observation in most situations.

      (There is a relatively small set of controlled situations where it is reasonable to claim certain things do not exist within the universe of the experiment based on the details of the observeration excluding the possibility of the existence of thing being proved to not exist within the confines of the experiment.)

      That said, we do have several data points of planets that do not currently appear to us to harbor life. So it is fair to say that our present stage of knowledge, there do not appear to be any other intelligent forms of life in the universe.

      Yet we also need to acknowledge the limits of this statement and admit that the state of our knowledge may be the limiting factor and not the presence of other intelligent life forms.

  26. Two Points by Entropix · · Score: 2, Informative

    First, I noticed some discussion as to Quantum Physics being far more complicated than Classical Physics, so Occum's Razor doesn't really apply -- well, actually it might not be. It turns out there are many relationships that exist between current string theories and 11-dimensional supergravity, suggesting that these various theories (Heterotic 0, Heterotic E, I, IIA, IIB) are all expressions of the same thing. Perhaps a single M-theory exists that can describe our universe. Second, I'd like to mention that this talk about FTL travel is futile. Besides the problems with mass and energy and time slowing, there are plenty of other options that actual physicists such as Stephen Hawking (i.e. not ones holding up a lightbulb they call "The Doom Machine") have discussed. For example, there is the bending of space-time fabric to move quickly from one point to another. There is even the possibility of so-called wormholes or Einstein-Rosen bridges being constructed and prevented from being closed by a negative energy force such as that is present in the Casimir effect. Of course, this is predominantly theoretical, and at least a couple hundred years off in this author's humble opinion. Oh, and anyone interested in Drake's Equation (a.k.a. the Sagan equation), you can try Eric Weisstein's World of Physics at: http://scienceworld.wolfram.com/astronomy/DrakeEqu ation.html [scienceworld.wolfram.com] - Entropix

    --
    I know Karate, Kung Fu, and 47 other dangerous words!
  27. Matrioshka Brains by Saeger · · Score: 2
    I subscribe to the relatively little-known Matrioshka Brain theory, which basically says that a sufficiently advanced civilization will "build a 'Matrix' around their star(s)". This theory also happens to conveniently explain where all the "dark matter" in the universe went.

    So why's there no tragedy of the commons with these brains? They're advanced remember; we're just ants in comparison. :-) Just like how the richer/smarter nations on Earth tend to have lower population growth, so too might the MBs have achieved a virtual zero population growth zen.

    Anyway, give Bradbury's paper a read, but fair warning: it might be a bit harder to suspend your disbelief when it comes to far-future hard sci-fi with conventional humans at the helm (Star Trek doesn't count). It's only human to anthropomorphize the future I guess...

    --

    --
    Power to the Peaceful
  28. Best - and most chilling - explanation I've seen by Rogerborg · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Is in Toolmaker Koan. Lousy book, interesting premise. The premise is that progress comes through conflict, and that any society with the social drive to achieve the technology necessary for space travel is - axiomatically - so conflicted that it always bombs itself back to the stone age.

    It's hard to argue against. We haven't destroyed ourselves - yet - but then again, we haven't achieved space travel either. I don't count holding our breath while we dash out, touch the moon, and dash back. That's proof of concept. When we get a self sufficient and growing colony on another planet, get back to me.

    --
    If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
  29. Re:ET Life by Tyreth · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This assumption that life must have evolved elsewhere if it did on earth is utterly ridiculous. Consider the chances of the simplest possible single celled life being created. Now try and imagine this happening twice in the same universe. Ridiculous. (and natural selection plays no role since we are talking about the simplest life):
    "To claim life evolved is to demand a miracle. The simplest conceivable form of single-celled life should have at least 600 different protein molecules. The mathematical probabilitya that only one typical protein could form by chance arrangements of amino acid sequences is far less than 1 in 10^450. To appreciate the magnitude of 10^450, realize that the visible universe is about 10^28 inches in diameter.
    From another perspective, suppose we packed the entire visible universe with a "simple" form of life, such as bacteria. Next, we broke all their chemical bonds, mixed all atoms, then let them form new links. If this were repeated a billion times a second for 20 billion years under the most favorable temperature and pressure conditions throughout the visible universe, would one bacterium of any type reemerge? The oddsb are much less than one chance in 10^99,999,999,873. Your odds of drawing at random one preselected atom out of a universe packed with atoms is about one chance in 10^112--much better. "

    http://www.creationscience.com/onlinebook/LifeSc ie nces39.html

  30. Human-like intelligence on this planet... by GoStone · · Score: 2, Interesting
    would be a nice thing (to paraphrase Gandhi).

    Intelligent life has clearly evolved many times on earth, from dinosaurs to dolphins, octopi to owls.

    Is there any strong evidence that no technological intelligence ever evolved on earth before America was born (irony)? I mean before humans came along?

    If we all died tomorrow in an asteroid blast, what evidence would there be of our existence in a mere million years?

    There was good article on this in New Scientist once which concluded the answer was 'little'.

    Just a weird thought.

  31. Indeed... by gusnz · · Score: 2

    Given our tendency to blow the daylights out of each other at the slightest provocation, I don't blame any sentient alien species for keeping quiet.

    Either that, or they could just have a "Prime Directive" law of their own, which would also make sense. When considering ET contact theorems, who says that the aliens in question actually want to talk to us?

  32. Re: Occam's Razor by Black+Parrot · · Score: 2

    > Occam's Razor, that 'The simplest answer is most often the correct one.' has no actual logical value behind it.

    The value of Ockham's Razor isn't "logical". The value of Ockham's Razor is that it keeps special pleading from getting a free pass.

    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  33. Re:Statistics are fun by smittyoneeach · · Score: 2

    -1 Offtopic, in a good mood, karma running over my dogma.

    Hitler, he only had one ball,
    Rommel, had two but very small,
    Himmler, had something sim'lar,
    But only Goebbels, had no balls, at all.

    --heard this was a British infantry bit in WWII

    --
    Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
  34. Fermi Paradox Explainations by davecl · · Score: 2

    There are quite a few chilling ones out there...

    One of the standard arguments against the existance of ETI are 'von-Neuman' probes - self reproducing probes that go to a star system, use local resources to make more of themselves, then head off to other systems. Repeat until you've explored the whole galaxy. This can take as little as 15 million years. The absence of von Neuman probes in the solar system was used by Frank Tipler to argue against the existence of ETI.

    A simple change to this idea leads to 'Beserkers' - von Neuman probes that don't just look for life, but hunt it out and destroy it, to remove competition for their builders. This idea was originally described in Fred Saberhagen's Berserker books, and something similar comes up in Greg Bear's Forge of God and Anvil of Stars, Alistair Reynold's Revelation Space and other recent work, and elsewhere. This also could explain the failure of SETI to detect radio signals - if you make yourself obvious, you get wiped out.

    An alternative to this is that its not the probes that kill you, but colonising aliens, who use up all the resources in a part of the galaxy and then expire, making way for a fallow period and then another round of colonisation. Stephen Baxter's Space addresses this idea.

    The basic message of these theories is that the galaxy may be like a quiet forest, but its not quiet because there's nothing there, its quiet because there are wolves in the forest.

    And that's quite scary...

  35. Re:ET Life by overunderunderdone · · Score: 2

    Those are the assumptions of the Drake Equation. That all you need is a sun-like star and an earth-like planet and POOF life. And on all those life-bearing planets theres bound to be quite a few that evolve complex animals and eventually intelligent life.

    The Rare Earth Hypothesis that they are arguing about looks at those assumptions a bit more critically. It does not assume that there is no other life like ours out there but that it is VERY rare. That the life-friendly atmosphere and climate our planet enjoys is the result of a fairly large number of low-probablity chances.

    The authors contend that on our planet at least life is dependent on being a certain distance from the center of the galaxy (too much radiation) but not on the outer edge (too little metal for a planet the right size to form). That cuts down significantly on the number of stars in our galaxy that can support life. We also need an unusually large moon (to stabilise tilt, create tides). We need plate tectonics (for a host of reasons) which also means the planet has to be a certain size and have a particular make-up and peculiar history.

    After meeting all these conditions your potential planet with it's evolving life must avoid having that life wiped out by a mass extinction event. It helps to have a Jupiter sized planet to "clean up" all those comets, asteroids, planetoids etc. that would otherwise bombard your planet from time to time, periodically vaporising the oceans. But if that Jupiter is too close, or in an eliptical orbit (as all the extrasolar "jupiters" we have so far found orbiting other stars) it's gravitational effect will either drive your earthlike planet into the star (not healthful for life) or knock it right out of the star system (also not healthful for life).

    Now your very rare earth like planet must simply avoid some bad luck, nearby magnetars, supernovas etc., getting hit by the chance comet that your friendly jupiter didn't clean up for you. etc.

    Certainly starting with a large enough sample even these very stringent, and unlikely requirements will be met from time to time. But they will be rare and spaced far apart. Out of the billions of stars in our galaxy only a handful (hundreds, maybe only dozens) will meet those conditions, not the millions of advanced civilisations originally suggested by Sagan and Drake.

  36. Re:Something that's rarely brought up by overunderunderdone · · Score: 2

    The rare earth people aren't arguing that it doesn't exist, only that it is, well... rare. (thus the name of the hypothesis) Sagan and Drake hypothesisized that not only was life common & that advanced life was fairly common but that there were MILLIONS of advanced civilizations in our galaxy. The rare earth hypothesis doesn't say there are NO other advanced civilisations but cuts down the estimated number by a few orders of magnitude.

  37. Re:ET Life by ShavenYak · · Score: 2

    From another perspective, suppose we packed the entire visible universe with a "simple" form of life, such as bacteria. Next, we broke all their chemical bonds, mixed all atoms, then let them form new links. If this were repeated a billion times a second for 20 billion years under the most favorable temperature and pressure conditions throughout the visible universe, would one bacterium of any type reemerge? The oddsb are much less than one chance in 10^99,999,999,873.

    Like most creationists, you assume that atoms form molecules completely randomly. However, this is most definitely not the case. Basic organic chemistry, the seeds of life, has been seen throughout the cosmos - vast clouds of acetic acid, alcohol, and of course water vapor have been detected in outer space. These don't form randomly; they are an inevitable result of the atomic structures of the basic elements.

    More complex things like amino acids also appear to be readily formed when their constituents are put together and energy is added. And, the recent synthetic polio virus experiment seems to indicate that very simple life forms just naturally fall into place. If atoms truly arranged themselves randomly, the experimenters would not have gotten a complete functioning virus.

    The "tornado in a junkyard assembling a 747" argument is one tht creationists pop up quite often, but it simply doesn't hold water. All the parts of the 747 of life seem to fit together only in a few ways, and automatically snap together correctly when two parts came close to each other. Correct your analogy for this fact, and remember that there are trillions of trillions of junkyards and trillions of trillions of tornadoes. Life might or might not be common in the cosmos, but it's not the impossible event creationists make it out to be.

    Besides, to me, the idea of a God who intricately designed all these individual parts and set up the parameters and laws of the universe in such a way that life was inevitable, is far more awe-inspiring than the idea of God just saying "poof" and the universe popping up in six days. Maxwell's electromagnetic field equations seem a far cry more stunning testament to a Creator than a simple "let there be light". Don't constrain God and His Creation to the simplistic fables of people thousands of years ago.

    --

    Hey kids, there's only 5 days left 'til Yak Shaving Day!
  38. Compass Needle and Cell Development by johnrpenner · · Score: 2

    It would be regarded as quite out of the question to study the movements
    of a magnet-needle on the Earth's surface in such a way as to try to
    explain these movements solely out of what can be observed within the
    space occupied by the needle. The movements of the magnet-needle are, as
    you know, brought into connection with the magnetism of the Earth. We
    connect the momentary direction of the needle with the direction of the
    Earth's magnetism, that is, with the line of direction which can be
    drawn between the north and south magnetic poles of the Earth. When it
    is a question of explaining the phenomena presented by the magnetic
    needle, we go out of the region of the needle itself and try to enter,
    with the facts that have been collected towards an explanation, into the
    totality which alone affords the opportunity to explain phenomena, the
    manifestations of which belong to this totality. This rule of method is
    certainly observed in regard to some phenomena, - to those, I should
    say, the significance of which is fairly obvious. But it is not observed
    when it is a question of explaining and understanding more complicated
    phenomena.

    Just as it is impossible to explain the phenomena of the magnetic needle
    from the needle itself, it is equally and fundamentally impossible to
    explain the phenomena relating to the organism from out of the organism
    itself, or from connections which do not belong to a totality, to a
    whole. And just for this reason, because there is so little inclination
    to reach the realm of totalities in order to find explanations, we
    arrive at those results put forward by the modern scientific method in
    which the wider connections are almost entirely left out of the picture.
    This method encloses the phenomena, whatever they may be, within the
    field of vision of the microscope; while the celestial phenomena are
    restricted to what is observable externally, with the help of
    instruments. In seeking for explanations, no attempt is made to consider
    the necessity of reaching out to the surrounding totality within which a
    phenomenon is localised...

    (Rudolf Steiner, Lecture Lecture X, January 10th, 1921)
    http://home.earthlink.net/~johnrpenner/Articles/Em bryonicCosmo.html

    --

    Suppose someone looks at the needle of a compass, finds it pointing from
    South to North, from North to South, and then decides that the forces
    that set the needle in the North-South direction lie in the needle
    itself. He would certainly not be considered a physicist today. A
    physicist brings the needle of the compass into connection with what is
    called earthly magnetism. No matter what theories people evolve, it is
    simply impossible to attribute the direction of the needle to forces
    lying within the needle itself. It must be brought into relation with
    the universe.

    In studying organic life today, the relationship of the organic to the
    universe is usually regarded as quite secondary. But suppose it were
    indeed true that merely on account of their different positions the
    liver and the brain are actually related quite differently to universal
    forces outside the human being. In that case we could never arrive at an
    explanation of the human being by way of pure empiricism. An explanation
    is possible only if we are able to say what part the whole universe
    plays in molding the brain and the liver, in the same sense as the earth
    plays its part in the direction taken by the needle in the compass.

    Suppose we are tracing back the stream of heredity. We begin with the
    ancestors, pass on to the present generation, and then to the offspring,
    both in the case of animals and of human beings. We take into account
    what we find -- as naturally we must -- but we reckon merely with
    processes observed to lie immediately within the human being. It hardly
    ever occurs to us to ask whether under certain conditions in the human
    organism it is possible for universal forces to work in the most varied
    ways upon the fertilized germ. Nor do we ask: Is it perhaps impossible
    to explain the formation of the fertilized germ cell if we remain within
    the confines of the human being himself? Must we not relate this germ
    cell to the whole universe?

    In orthodox science today, the forces that work in from the universe are
    considered secondary. To a certain limited extent they are taken into
    consideration, but they are always secondary. And now you may say: "Yes,
    but modern science leads us to a point where such questions no longer
    arise. It is antiquated to relate the human organs to the universe!" In
    the way in which this is often done, it is antiquated, but the fact that
    generally such questions do not arise today is due entirely to our
    scientific education. Our education in science confines us to this
    purely sense-oriented empirical mode of research, and we never come to
    the point of raising questions such as I have posed hypothetically by
    way of introduction. But the extent to which man is able to advance in
    knowledge and action in every sphere of life depends upon raising
    questions. Where questions never arise, a person is living in a kind of
    scientific fog. Such an individual is himself dimming his free outlook
    upon reality, and it is only when things no longer fit into his scheme
    of thought that he begins to realize the limitations of his conceptions.

    http://wn.elib.com/Steiner/Medicine/19221026p01.ht ml

    --

  39. Re:m Another possibility by flewp · · Score: 2

    The galaxy may have been born roughly 14 billion years ago (I thought the universe was roughly 14 billion, not the galaxy, oh well), but I doubt all the planets and stars were fully created, much less life. Our own planet (which, last time I checked, was in the galaxy) was only formed a couple billion years ago. Life didn't start until a little while after that, and intelligent (to understand the concept of even primitive space travel) life has only recently come about.

    --
    WWJD.... for a Klondike bar?
  40. Re:ET Life by ShavenYak · · Score: 2

    What's that most universally observed and verified law? I think it's the law of biogenesis:
    "Spontaneous generation (the emergence of life from nonliving matter) has never been observed. All observations have shown that life comes only from life. This has been observed so consistently it is called the law of biogenesis."


    To the best of my knowledge, God has never been observed popping planets into existence either.

    Before you answer that we weren't there to see it, remember that we weren't there to see the origins of life on earth either.

    As far as I was aware, life has NEVER been created, even in a laboratory. Life always comes from life - this is universally observed and has never been proven false.

    No, but then again, most laboratories are much smaller than the planet Earth, and most experiments have much less than a billion years in which to produce results. Probably the closest is the polio virus thing, but of course synthesizing DNA and RNA isn't really life from lifelessness because the reagents involved have to be obtained by biological processes, as well as the other proteins and such to complete the virus. It's something like the old quip about a scientist finally shouting to the heavens "I've discovered the secrets of life! Take that, God! I can create a man from dust just like you now." To which God replies, "Ok, but you'll have to make your own dust, you can't use mine."

    Concerning amino acids, I was of course referring to the Urey-Miller experiments as well as some others. Here is an interesting tidbit concerning the possible formation of amino acids in deep space ice. There's even a bit of discussion of handedness, one of the major problems creationists have with any of these sorts of experiments. See, I read your link, even though I had to cut and paste and remove the space.

    I don't like God being constrained by the simplistic fables of today - evolution.

    First, evolutionary theory is hardly in the same category as creation mythology. There is a large amount of evidence that indicates it gives a reasonable explanation of the origins of life. From it, you can make general predictions about the fossil record which observations have agreed with many times. Reference the near-complete fossil record of whale evolution, the diversification of reptiles and mammals, the progress from Eohippus to the modern horse. Even humankind has an ancestral record - I'm sure if you're at all interested in the topic you know of the recent find in Kenya. It probably raises more questions than it answers, but that is the nature of science.

    Sure, you can explain all the fossil evidence by saying "God did it", and answer the following "Why?" with "Because he wanted to." But, you haven't explained anything by that. Scientists can't use that kind of explanation to do any real work. Without some sort of testable theories that make useful predictions, we would never have had modern medicines, pesticides, or any sort of biotechnology (yes, some is good and some bad).

    The same can be said of any sort of advance. If humans had just taken for granted that God created lightning, we'd never have harnessed electricity. In the process of understanding electricity, we've discovered the electron and come to a theory of how static electricity builds up in clouds and discharges. In the process, we've had to discard the idea that Thor throws his hammer down, or God creates it to strike down sinners. But, we've come to a new understanding of His universe that we can put to great use. I think the tradeoff is worthwhile. The same sort of tradeoffs are being made in biology. I can still say "God created life on earth" just as surely as I can say "God creates lightning", it's just that we now have a greater understanding of the process by which He did/does it.

    Evolution is not a new idea. It has been around as long as the hills, I think, and will always exist in some form.

    Well, even according to Genesis the hills existed before Adam did, so that can't be true. ;)

    There are so many amazing things to be observed and contemplated, especially under a creationist model. It is useless to say what you just said - it's merely the subjective emotions of one man/woman.

    When do you really appreciate a fine watch? Watching the hands go around the face is pretty, but you really have respect for the designer when you open it up and look at the finely crafted gears. But you're right, that's sort of an opinion thing. It's pretty undeniable, though, that if you want to learn anything about watch-making, you have to open the watch. This is why scientists tend towards evolutionary theory - it's not because they want to disprove God, but because the information they need to do their work just isn't in Genesis.

    I think this has turned into the longest post I've ever put up here, and I've probably rambled far too much. I hope you don't get too bored reading it to give it a bit of thought.

    --

    Hey kids, there's only 5 days left 'til Yak Shaving Day!
  41. Re:Occam's Razor by zeno_2 · · Score: 2

    I got this from a post above, I think it is the exact wording of it:

    "One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything."

    Which I think is a bit more solid then, "The simplest answer is most often the correct one".

  42. Re:another possibility - Spanish ships example by King_TJ · · Score: 2

    Umm, I still think it *is* relevant.

    The example of it making little difference whether a Spanish ship traveled at 2 knots or 20 isn't a good analogy.

    When you scale the distance traveled up as high as is required when you're talking about colonizing a new planet - you run into the issue of the travel taking longer than a human's lifespan.

    Theoretically, yes, you could construct a traveling "world" of sorts - where generations of people live and die, but the man-made "planet" continues on a slow course towards a new plant to colonize. In reality, it seems like this would raise quite a few issues and stumbling blocks.

    For starters, by the time the ship makes it to the new world - will the people on board know what to do? Will they care? After all, you're talking about many generations of humans that made this ship their home. Will there really be incentive to disembark and risk death trying to colonize some other planet?

    By contrast, if the people *do* long for colonization of a new world - I'd argue that it would only happen if they were lacking a number of things on their ship that couldn't be simulated/recreated. If that's so, it's questionable whether man would even survive for the thousands of years required for the ship to reach its destination in the first place. (EG. Issues of malnutrition because of the limited types of food and drink available on board.)

  43. ObH2G2 quote by rabidcow · · Score: 2

    4. POPULATION: None.

    It is known that there are an infinite number of worlds, simply because there is an infinite amount of space for them to be in. However, not every one of them is inhabited. Therefor, there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so the average population of all the planets in the Universe can be said to be zero. From this it follows that the population of the whole Universe is also zero, and that any people you may meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination.

  44. A technical solution isn't enough by alienmole · · Score: 2
    Before any interstellar exploration or colonization attempts can take place, the initiating species has to agree to devote massive resources to the attempt. Taking Earth as an example: we haven't colonized a single planet in our solar system, in fact we haven't put a human on any other planets. It's hardly certain that we ever will get any further than Mars. The probes we've sent out aren't designed to return information from interstellar distances, and aren't likely to intersect with any other star systems in any case, except possibly when their orbit around the galactic core decays sufficiently.

    Before any of this changes, a lot of taxpayers somewhere have to be convinced of the need to commit the resources in question. That'll make for an interesting societal debate - NOT! There's so little interest in this kind of thing in the general population of Earth, that an interstellar exploratory mission is effectively impossible - let alone a colonization mission. Committing funds today with a miniscule chance of receiving a return hundreds or thousands of years from now is just not a concept that any politician who wants to get re-elected is likely to support.

    I'm not arguing that this is right, but it's realistic. The only way interstellar travel is likely to happen is if the necessary technologies reach price points where an group of mega-billionaires can get together and do it privately. Maybe that could happen in a few hundred years time, but I wouldn't count on it.

  45. Simple answer by alienmole · · Score: 2
    The problem is that natural selection should apply on these scales like it doesn on a planetary scale. Only the life forms that breed from planet to planet are likely to survive in the long run. Where are they?

    It's a problem that may be too tough for natural selection to solve. In this comment, I explain why humans aren't likely to expand beyond their planet. Similar logic applies to any species. For a species to expand beyond its planet, it would need the ability to direct a substantial fraction of the resources available to it towards interstellar colonization. That's likely to require a great deal of cooperation. (Imagine a debate about this in, say, the US Congress!)

    Natural selection favors competition, and only favors cooperation when there's an overall competitive benefit to the organism's direct reproductive success - often measured in terms of how many grandchildren it has. Natural selection doesn't apply here because the motivation to take actions with goals measured in centuries is non-existent, except possibility amongst very highly evolved intelligent creatures of a certain kind. There certainly aren't enough such creatures on Earth.

    The overall logic of natural selection still applies, of course - you're correct when you say "Only the life forms that breed from planet to planet are likely to survive in the long run". But you can't assume that it's possible for life forms to reach this level of success. Intelligent life may be quite common in the universe, but they're all too busy dealing with their own petty day-to-day concerns and survival to fund credible interstellar colonization attempts.

  46. Typical examples of pseudo-science. by jotaeleemeese · · Score: 2

    "universal forces"

    Umh, yeah. May the force be with you as well.

    --
    IANAL but write like a drunk one.
  47. One of the best theories yet.. by xtal · · Score: 2

    It's interesting that most people assume that intelligent life has to be a sack of water, and that independant human-style thought is the way to go. It also is a much closer fit for observed data.

    --
    ..don't panic
  48. Re:ET Life by ShavenYak · · Score: 2

    I am someone who has to know the truth about everything - so I search for answers. If that truth happens to be that God created the world merely 6,000 years ago, then so be it.

    The only source of that truth is in a book, written by people who had virtually no scientific knowledge. Other books, some written before and some after Genesis, give different numbers. Traditional Hindu cosmology indicates that the universe is trillions of years old. Why should an impartial scientist give the Torah/Bible more credence than the Koran or the Rig Veda?

    It is the truth, so it must be logical, and therefore we can study and learn the intricacies of the "watch" and appreciate the amazing work of God.

    What happens when you study the watch and find contradictions? Ice cores indicate an Earth well over 100,000 years old at an absolute minimum.

    Also, did you read my reference about proteins tending to break down into amino acids, the opposite of what is necessary for evolution?

    Yes. Proteins were (probably) not formed before the first self-replicating molecules. No self-respecting scientist believes that all the proteins required for modern life spontaneously appeared before the earliest life forms. There are a few tidbits on abiogenesis probability calculations that you might find interesting.

    God would have had to have performed a miracle a minute for billions of years for evolution to have occurred - that seems far less logical and unrealistic than the creation approach.

    Actually, they both seem equally unrealistic, although good old Occam would prefer the 'couple miracles a day for six days' version. Neither is really necessary to explain the origins of life, and taking the miraculous aspect out of it in no way changes the true spiritual meaning of the first few chapters of Genesis. Anyway, I tend to believe God did have a hand in guiding the processes of evolution, just as I believe He has a hand in the events of everyday life. It's just that I think He works through the natural processes we study in science, rather than around them.

    On the website link you provided, a little bit through it talks about handedness of amino acids, so you may be interested in this.

    From the site:
    No known natural process can isolate either the left-handed or right-handed variety. The mathematical probability that chance processes could produce merely one tiny protein molecule with only left-handed amino acids is virtually zero.

    True. But, scientific abiogenesis theories don't require chance generation of complex proteins. The earliest self-replicating molecules were probably simple peptides. Incidentally, the ideas of natural selection can explain pretty well why everything is right-handed now - all it takes is for the right-handed peptides to outnumber the left-handed by a small margin, and their offspring will eventually drastically outnumber the lefties and drive them to extinction by competition for resources.

    Because evolution favors slight variations that enhance survivability and produce more offspring, consider how advantageous a mutation might be that switched (or inverted) a plant's handedness.

    The right-handed DNA of the parent plant couldn't replicate into a left-handed version of itself even if the left-handed nucleotides were present, which they aren't. That's not exactly a 'slight variation', it is complete restructuring.

    Totally off the topic of evolution, but interesting nonetheless: There are a few molecules that exist in both left and right handed versions in life forms. Limonene is one of them. The left-handed version is found in oranges, the right-handed version in lemons. Have you ever had an artifical lemon flavored tea that had a bit of an orange taste? It's because you can't separate the two molecules chemically or mechanically. Good artificial lemon flavor must be derived, or at least filtered, by a process similar to the way taste receptors work, involving molecules of a specific handedness.

    Amino acids look pretty simple, and that improbability statement I showed you, when you are doing something a billion times a second for 20 billion years, I think that amino acids would be formed more than once :)

    Of course, that isn't an issue anyway, amino acids can form far more rapidly than that, even in the constraints of a lab experiment, let alone the oceans of Earth or however other similar planets exist. Only one planet in the universe has to end up with life for that life to then wonder how it got there, right? Hey, I managed to get this post back on-topic for the original thread, sort of.

    I think if we considered that amino acids naturally formed into that equation (if it wasn't already) then the chances would probably still be insanely high.

    It's not just the formation of amino acids, it's the formation of any organic molecules. If all the interactions were random, life would be impossible. The interactions are not random though - thanks to the structure of the atoms involved, fairly complex carbon-based molecules are inevitable. Over enough time, more complex molecules can form which start acting as catalysts which cause copies of themselves to form. Once this happens, any idea that all the interactions are 'random' in the sense of probability calculations have to be thrown out. Also, there are innumerable different sets of proteins, nucleotides, etcetera that could have wound up as the basis for life. Only one had to evolve for life to exist, and to point out its improbability after the fact is meaningless. Like in poker - the odds of drawing any particular set of cards are very poor, but the odds of drawing a 'winning hand' are not.

    To my mind, it's the ability of the simple carbon atom to form such complex structures that points to a Designer. Deeper than that, the interactions between subatomic particles and the relationships in strength between the four forces of nature seem to be perfectly laid out for life to exist(I'm really more a physics person than a molecular biology person). I'll also agree that the complex organs in modern life form do seem to me to be evidence of Design. It's just that I believe the design process was guided, not 'miracled', and that it took place in a natural, physical way that we can understand if we study it.

    One other quote from the page you linked to that caught my eye:
    Similarly, why are there not more poisonous plants?

    The best answer is, most plants don't need to be poisonous, they survive to reproduce just fine without it. A plant which mutated to become poisonous is at a disadvantage due to the metabolic energy spent to produce the poison. Since a plant can still reproduce after being half-eaten (or more), most of them gain little to no advantage by being poisonous to predators.

    Asking 'why' to evolution almost always yields the answer 'because it helps them reproduce'. Asking 'why' about creation almost always yields the answer 'because it is part of God's plan'. That's just the different nature of scientific reasoning versus religious reasoning.

    'Why' isn't really a question that science is equipped to answer, because there's always another level. Why do things fall? Because of gravity. Why is there gravity? It's produced by massive objects. Why is there mass? Well, it might have something to do with the Higgs boson, but physicists don't have the tools to explore that currently.

    That's what the purpose of religion is - to give an answer to the 'why' we all have asked since we could speak. For Christians, John 3:16 is a nice summary, and the rest of the Bible provides the background of the story of salvation. Treating it as a science textbook, when that is obviously not its purpose, seems unwise.

    For instance, the Bible tells us what rainbows are, but I haven't seen anyone trying to debunk the sciences of optics and meteorolgy that explain it in more detail. Optics, you'd obviously have a lot of trouble with, because it's easy to experimentally verify and reproduce. Meterology is more akin to evolutionary biology in that you can't reproduce, you can only observe the evidence and build a theory that explains it. Still, no one seems to dispute that the weather has scientific explanations beyond 'God made it'.

    There's another thing that strikes me as odd about the really vocal creationists. If they spent as much energy trying to live according to the teachings of Jesus as they do trying to prove science wrong, imagine the positive impact they could have on people's lives. Don't take that the wrong way; there's a big difference between discussing creationism and evolution on Slashdot during lunch hour, and making a life's work out of attacking science.

    I've enjoyed the site you provided - I think I've seen it before but never explored in great detail. I wish they had a search function, because I couldn't find an answer to the ice cores there. If you know where it is, let me know.

    I've found some other interesting tidbits on there. Some really aren't good arguments, or are based on theories or measurements that the scientific community has already revised or discarded. Some of them raise legitimate questions, for which I am still trying to find answers. I hope you find the site I linked to every bit as fascinating.

    Gee, looks like I've rambled on too much again. :)

    --

    Hey kids, there's only 5 days left 'til Yak Shaving Day!
  49. Re:ET Life by ShavenYak · · Score: 2

    Since no one else on slashdot is contributing to the discussion, if you'd like to continue it in email feel free. My address is bsmith3 at charter dot net.

    Anyway...

    Tell me why I should expect an atheist scientist to give credence to creationist theories if they had supporting evidence? Everyone has biases, and a discussion of origins is inherently philosophical and will include people's biases.

    Well, not all scientists are atheists. They come from all religious backgrounds and have beliefs as varied as anyone else. You might find a slightly higher proportion of atheists among scientists than the population at large, because science and atheism both tend to attract people with strict, logical minds.

    This also seems like a convenient place to point out that Pope JP II has gone on record as saying the theory of evolution is not necessarily in conflict with Catholic theology. Not knowing your faith more than that you are Christian, I have to hope you're not one of the sort who refer to the Pope as the Great Satan of Rome, otherwise you won't give a whit about that.

    About the dating methods mentioned on creationscience.com, I'm going to do more reading on some of them. The primarily geological ones (sediments, volcanic debris, continental erosion) don't seem to account for the massive geological changes that the Earth has gone through in its lifespan. The continents weren't always where they are now, many things which used to be sediments a few million years ago are mountaintops now, and so forth. Obviously, if you reject an age > 6000 years for Earth in the first place, those aren't good explanations. But if you're going to try to find inconsistencies in geology, you have to make sure that the theories already there don't easily explain away your evidence. Some of the other stuff there isn't so easy to dismiss, so I'll be doing some more reading later on.

    Question: is there any mechanism known (and I am ignorant) by which molecules may be created initially in order to form amino acids?

    Well, if you've got carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen, you've got all the building blocks in place. Stuff like methane, ammonia, and of course carbon dioxide and water can form naturally, and these can form the amino acids.

    You demonstrated that some amino acids form naturally, but what about the molecules they are formed from - do all 20 amino acids naturally form, or only some?

    There are now 22 known amino acids actually. As far as I know, not all of them have been shown to form outside of biological processes. That, of course, doesn't constitute proof that they can't form naturally.

    Really? Some questions for evolution:
    * Why do humans shun rape as a sickening act?
    * Why do humans practice self-sacrifice for the love of another that is not necessarily their own offspring?
    * Why do humans sometimes feel prone to compassion towards the weak and unpriviliged?


    Three quick guesses that might not necessarily be all that great....

    Rape: Females should tend to seek the fittest mate, having another forced on them goes against their genetic best interests. The males don't want to see it happen because that female might have chosen them as a mate instead. Incidentally, the male's genetic prerogative is to fertilize as many females as possible. This might explain why men don't appear as sympathetic to rape victims as other women, and also why you almost never hear of a man being raped (or at least, you don't hear them complain). These different approaches to reproduction can also be used to explain the different attitudes of men and women towards consent - the "men are pigs" phenomenon, you might call it. :)

    Self sacrifice: Say you have two groups of bunnies. One bunny stands up to the marauding fox and saves his mate and cubs at the cost of his life. Another bunny runs away and his cubs are eaten. The first bunny has passed the test of natural selection and his offspring have a chance. The second bunny has not. He's survived to try again, but any number of things may stand in his way. The first bunny's offspring aren't guaranteed survival, but they're obviously more likely than the dead ones.

    Compassion: This one is harder. Compassion is in general beneficial to the species as a whole, but it's harder to specifically state why.

    Note that none of these three traits is confined only to humans. Plenty of animals want to choose their own mating partners and become plenty upset when another attempts mating with them. Animals risk, and often lose, their lives all the time providing for their own offspring or protecting a flock/herd/what-have-you.

    Of course, the words "love" and "compassion" indicate emotions, and suggest that a purely scientific analysis isn't what you're after. And I don't think science alone can explain them either. I'm just pointing out that those emotions don't necessarily run counter to what evolution might suggest.

    And why would God use one method to create His masterpiece (murder, rape, greed, selfishness, cruelty, etc) and then later declare these attributes to be sickening and morally wrong? It is obvious that those things happened and were necessary for natural selection, yet under evolution you must presume that they were natural and good processes (Genesis 1:31).

    Obviously God has higher expectations of us than of the animals. There has never been a revelation to even the chimpanzees or dolphins, who appear to have very similar physical capacities for thought. God calls his whole creation good; we have to assume that includes carnivores which must kill for food. Or were they all herbivorous before sin entered the world? That's not meant to be trite or insulting; I honestly don't know the consensus among literalists about what the carnivores ate before Adam and Eve sinned and brought death to the world.

    I think that evolutionists don't fully comprehend the creation theory and consider it. When reading creation information they must think with the mind of a creationist so they can see how everything fits together. I have to think like an evolutionist to fully appreciate their arguments when I read their websites - and I feel that evolutionists often miss this.

    I agree. Here, I was going to write a bit about the biblical story, with some questions and some insights about my point of view as a decidedly non-atheist person who believes evolution is a valid scientific theory. But I quickly realized it would get too long. So, I'll finish it up later and, if you choose to continue the conversation, I've love to have your opinions and views on it. Again, bsmith3 at charter dot net.

    --

    Hey kids, there's only 5 days left 'til Yak Shaving Day!
  50. Re:Think about it by spiro_killglance · · Score: 2

    Aliens might know lots of stuff. But how would
    they no about human biology and its failings without already being here. Aliens might send us
    warp drives. But its up to us to fix our human
    failings.