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Ellison: Linux Will Soon Decimate MS Windows
cioxx writes "Speaking to a few-hundred ISVs at an Oracle-sponsored event in New York, Larry Ellison made a bold prediction , also covered in Infoworld, stating: "(Microsoft has) already been killed by one open-source product. Slaughtered, wiped out, taken from market dominance to irrelevance [...]", referring to Apache's displacement of MS IIS server. He continues on with a claim that battle for datacenter dominance is looming with a clear advantage on the side of Open-Source platforms, and desktop would follow once Star Office becomes completely "usable" to compete with MS Office. "And it's going to happen to them again on Linux." Newsforge also has a related article on Oracles ongoing linux efforts.
on PostgreSQL and MySQL.
why should the market forces that apply to MS not apply to Oracle?
Build those yachts while the sun shines, Larry!
Humorous signatures are over-rated.
So how does that explain the chaos from Code Red?
it is great news to read Larry Ellison telling nice words about Open Source Software
I had to deal only remotely with Oracles licensing habbits. Seemed even more complicated than "open license" from MS.
I had to deal closer with Oracles interpretation of SQL-Standards "we don't obey them, we set them"
I had to deal with Oracles "bundled utilities" - documentation-files running across 400 screen pages. Comments like "if you want to change a tipped command, just simply erase it and type it new (decades after GNU readline)Where is the big difference in the companies attitude to Microsoft? Am I to blind to see?
MS wants to get people used to having a MS badged device in their home. One that just works, doesn't bluescreen etc, so that people are comfortable with it. They can then lever other services onto the platform; TiVo like capabilites, email, web browsing etc. This XBox follow up will be the hub of a home network.
Sony are aiming for a similar thing with the Playstation line. So far they have a head start on consumer trust.
You may think me a tired, old, cynic. I'd have to disagree about the tired bit.
Its not trying to be an IIS clone.
Other OS products are trying to implement tomorrow what Microsoft did yesterday. You can't beat someone in a race if you're trying to follow in their footsteps.
I do believe that Microsoft's power will fade, due in large part to Office competitors. I can't see how Microsoft can maintain their Office monopoly when they keep rachetting up the price. Even the OEM version, bundled with a new PC, is several hundred dollars. So many people will turn to alternatives, like MS Works. Once many people are running scaled back versions like Works, then some people will start realizing that StarOffice (and others) are better, and even cheaper. Not everyone will switch, but all you need is a critical mass, which will give competitors enough money to reinvest in improving their office suites, allowing them to compete head to head with the full version of Office. Microsoft will have to cut prices for an indefinite period, which will lower profits. Lower profits in the Office division will reduce or eliminate their ability to absorb losses in other divisions, forcing a retreat from other markets. Sure, they have large cash reserves, but you'd be amazed how fast you can blow through billions of dollars when you're forced to compete for the first time in years.
The only thing that's needed, as I see it, is a competitor to Windows. I would love for someone to make Linux into something the average computer user would be comfortable using, but I just don't think it'll ever happen. I'd love for OS X to run on commodity hardware, but I don't think that'll happen either. So I'm not sure that Microsoft will ever lose the desktop OS monopoly. I can always hope though.
"The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
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A lot of people still believe that will happen. In fact, the Ministry of Information and Computer Technology is setting to announce a thin client program for schools to reuse their old equipment, and I may be helping to develop a distro for it.
Put identity in the browser.
What's not usable about OpenOffice.org now?
The one steady complaint I hear is "doesn't do a perfect job of opening Microsoft Office formats". THat complaint is, even if true, ridiculous. If OpenOffice.org is to replace MS Office, sure, the path to getting there is easier of people don't have to notice, but eventually the proprietary MS formats would become irrelevant. This isn't a real criticism. Might as well criticise Word for not being able to open all those legacy LaTeX files that scientists and mathemticians have all over the places, huh?
(Not that I consider anything legacy about LaTeX myself... I still think that is definitely the right way to do large and technical documents.)
The only realy complaint that I've got about OOo is the support for animations in Impress. It seems to crash on Flash animations even on computers where I've got the Flash plugin installed... and it seems to depend on the Flash plugin from mozilla, rather than from itself. First, I'd much rather there were an open vector animation format out there for OOo to use, but that's not necessarily OOo's fault; if there is one, it doesn't have widespread acceptance and prominence. But, even beyond that, I haven't figured out how to embed MPEG or similar animations into OOo presentations, nor have I figured out how to get OOo to put its screen to the back so that if I hack in mplayer via a command line script (not the best interface for most people using Impress, but one that works for me), the full screen animation can even be seen.
As far as I'm concerned, solve that issue in Impress, and OOo is way more than anything I'd want out of an office suite like that.
Well, OK, and the equation editor is severely limited. (Only 8 colours?) Plus it's a pain... I speak TeX equations, and am resisting learning a new one. Right now, I usually use TeX and ImageMagick to put equations in my Impress presentations as transparent PNG images.
What are the things that people like Larry Ellison think are missing that make it only "almost" usable?
-Rob
Not true. It's derived from the term for punishment for Roman legions, in which every tenth man was executed.
There are two types of desktop. There's the desktop in business, where "all types of multimedia" and games are not important. In fact on the business desktop, I think Linux's lack of games will be seen as an advantage by the suits. There's also the home desktop, where of course Microsoft will continue to hold sway for now. But to understand what is happening in business, you have to see that much of what makes Windows attractive on the home market is anathema to the desktop market.
Reality is defined by the maddest person in the room
Actually, where IIS is dominant is in Workgroup servers on Intranets. Companies have departmental websites, and the administrative secretary and team leaders can open up the web pages with Microsoft Office if they're served on IIS. It cleanly prompts them for a password when they choose 'save' in Word and the web page is updated.
It's kinda one of the things that Netscape was hoping to use their proprietary Server/Client features for before Microsoft drove them out of that market. And it's a big revenue area for Web Servers, unlike where Apache does well. Apache excels in the lose-money sector, where Internet sites are scrambling to find a revenue stream to back up their content.
I know, I know, this sounds like Microsoft marketing boilerplate, but it's how things are.
I notice that the Infoworld article is 3 days old, but has not once been linked to from the start page. However, reviews of Microsoft products are, minus any critique of DRM- or Software-as-subscription- issues. Likewise for ZDNet and other sites. BYTE, perhaps, was getting a little too independent in its columns and is no longer available online.
Even with primo product placement and censored product reviews, we're still heading towards a tipping effect where Microsoft will disappear as a relevant player in the world's IT sectors.
F/OSS has been responsible for most of the Internet and Web. The bursting of the dot-com bubble co-incides with the short rise of the new-comer Microsoft, which has focused on growth through acquisition rather than innovation and on marketing rather than techology. Perhaps with the disappearance of this last dot-com pyramid scheme, we'll see new growth or even a small boom as businesses go back to what works.
Beta is broken and the link to classic doesn't work. Stop wasting our time or there won't be anybody left here.
Well... Larry is somewhat of a gasbag and he absolutely hates Microsoft... so he's gonna take any angle he can to pronounce the doom of Windows, even if it's as much his "want to have happen" as it is "he sees it happening." Same with McNealy. You wouldn't cite his prognistications as impartial either.
I just checked today these 10 top selling books in IT in one of the largest bookstores here in Brazil.
As you can see, not much for window~1 in there; people are buying books on Java, Linux, Operating Systens. And just one in 10 titles is specic to a M$ product - Excel.
-><- no
... people are now saying that Oracle will be wiped out by open-source SQL databases, such as MySQL and PostgresSQL.
I don't necessarily disagree w/ Ellison, and I love Oracle's products, but I just find it ironic that he should be foretelling the demise of Windows in the datacenter and Office on the desktop, when there are also open source products right behind Oracle 9i (MySQL is rated #2 most used SQL db for websites... I forget where I read that, sorry).
I noticed playing with the office 2k3 beta that microsoft has a new "PDF like" format called a .mdi (microsoft document image) file. I wonder if it might do well, considering how badly Adobe Acrobat works with Office documents.
Typical Microsoft...
"Decimate" goes far beyond the above two examples, because it hasn't even been used to mean "reduce by 10%" in living memory (indeed, once the tradition of killing every 10th person as punishment for mutiny was abolished, what need was there for a special word meaning "to kill every 10th person?"). Many dictionaries don't even list it as a definition, instead relegating it to etymology.
Actually, going back to "momentarily" for a moment, I looked it up on dictionary.com, and came up with some bizarre results. Webster's lists the sole definition as being "from moment to moment," which is different from your definition. The American Heritage Dictionary lists "for a moment" as a definition, but also notes that 41% of their panel also approves "in a moment," or "at any moment." In contrast, only 26% of the AHD panel approves "decimate" for anything other than the slaughter of human beings.
"The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
Well, you can hardly call IIS "irrelevant". Look at the number of worms it propogates. Look at the security holes that allow people to hijack boxes for DDOS attacks. It's very relevant - just not in the way Microsoft would like it to be I'm guessing...
A contraire, Linux IS ready for the desktop, I started my study of a Linux as replacement for MS Windows XP last year ( August ) and haven't gone back to Windows since. You have easy to use GUI, the installation detected and supported all of my devices ( printer, scanner, sound card , etc ) and which help files and community support galore.
The feature list of Linux systems IMHO outdoes Windows XP by far, I especially like the ability to access my home system via my work computer ( Windows XP ) using putty and Cygwin. The stability is profound, the options it give you ( shell, GUI file system, etc. ) stuff Windows into a garbage can. And if you are ( like me ) and are forced to use MS IE at work with no other browsers allowed, its great to have the ability ( as I mentioned earlier in this post ) to be able to run it remotely from my home linux box.
I could go on for hours about what Linux has that Windows XP wish it had ( MPLayer, anyone ? ), but then I would be late for work,
Oopps, time to go, I hope I didn't make any major typos. Enjoy the post, and one more thing, for Gaming use WINE/WINEX. Nuff said.
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I can't afford a sig!
It's not that simple. Excel has thousands of functions you can call, macros, charts, not to mention a VB interpreter. To open a complex spreadsheet created in Excel in another program, the other program would have to implement all the function calls and VB scripting, etc. If you want a universal format, you'd need some kind of an API standard to really make that possible. Simple formatting is a different issue, but spreadsheets are often more complicated than that.
...snip...
If you want linux on the desktop then linux developers need to compete with MS.
My rule of thumb when I don't agree with what is being said is to go to the very beginning, and look for the root assumption being made. Usually the entire argument is being made from one or more basic assumptions.
In this case, I think the assumption you made is that tech people want Linux to displace Microsoft on the desktop. I do not think that is the case at all. That SEEMS to be what some people want, but I don't think it ultimately is. I think they are sidetracked because of the obstacles in their way. I want to be able to run Linux because I prefer it. I love tinkering with it. I can do what I need to do with it. Where I can't, as in games, I use Windows. I don't have a problem admitting that. But that situation is becoming more and more rare, the more mature Linux gets. (and by Linux I am lumping in OSS software too) Of course, this is at home where a "corporate computing standard" isn't imposed on me.
I joke about wanting Linux to take over the world, but all I really want is for it to be accepted. I don't care about what everyone else chooses to use, as long as there is a choice. What has made Linux difficult to use? Can't print? That is because printer manufacturers don't produce drivers for Linux. Can't network effectively with Windows machines? That is Microsoft's doing by not cooperating. Can't read MSOffice documents? Microsoft again. The only reason we have OpenOffice is from reverse engineering. Multimedia players? Again, closed formats. I am amazed at how much engineering (and reverse engineering) effort has gone on in the Open Source and Free Software world. Imagine if that effort could have been used in different ways.
I want Linux to succeed so I can use it. That is all. Other companies make it harder for it to succeed. Linux is about cooperation to make the overall computing experience work. If I may refer to it as a "thing", Linux is not anti-Microsoft, as many people think. It simply wants to BE. New video format? Hey, let us in on it. New document format? Let us in on the specs. I don't think any Linux tech people have a problem with cooperating and working with Microsoft products, but the opposite. We WANT to be compatible. Microsoft is the one who is hanging on tightly to their document formats, APIs, protocols, etc.
Some people get too caught up in this "battle of the OSs". Microsoft can exist, it doesn't bother me. I don't want Linux to destroy them. I just want to be able to use it because I prefer it.
I think of Open Source and Free Software like water. It is just flowing, doing it's thing. You may be able to put it in a container and hold it, or dam it up, but it will find the little cracks and seep through. All because it is just doing what is its nature.
My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.
Linux is not ready for the dsesktop.
.mp3 from this CD").
And neither is windows. People have just learned to put up with it.
I'm entirely serious, and this is not a cheap shot at windows. The interface is horrible - if you doubt that, find someone who has no prior experience with computers, sit them down in front of a windows machine, give them zero instructions, and ask them for a few simple tasks ("write an e-mail to this address", "play the metallica
Been there, done that. Original commentary from my mum (who I started on Linux) after she made a windows "internet" course: "I'm happy I don't have that windows at home, I don't like it."
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
His ulterior motive most of the time seems to be to piss off Gates.
Very true.
He has an inferiority complex.
No, no, no. Ellison's the cockiest bastard I ever saw. He's aggressive, competitive, and likes to crush the other guys he plays "capitalism" with. He just always targets Bill, because he's already beaten everybody else, and Bill has screwed him over in the past. He doesn't have an inferiority complex at all, he just likes to bet on (and support) the little guy (which against Microsoft is everyone else), so that if (and when) they weaken Microsoft, he can watch Bill stumble, stagger, and fall to the ground bleeding. And then he himself can administer the coup de grace. Nothing would give him more pleasure.
Seems severely hypocritical to me. Several of Oracle's largest development divisions REQUIRE Microsoft Windows for development and deployment (which often additionally REQUIRES Internet Explorer) and Oracle's Global IT support DOES NOT SUPPORT employees running Linux.
I think, in order to really get Linux moving on the desktop, there will need to be some fairly major and widespread use of desktop security holes in Windows. I think the problems with IIS security and stability are the main factors pushing MS out of that area. We know there are security problems with Windows desktops, but there are usually not very many widespread attacks on them. Which is good, but it's not bringing the matter into the light like it did with IIS.
About setting up a samba server on an apache content directory, you said: "The Windows solution doesn't require a $150,000 'system administrator' to make it work."
Who's still hiring that kind of cash for such tiny and simple jobs?
Wow, I set something like that up in a couple of days as part of another more important setup. And I'm making less than $150K per year. Did I do it too fast and am I underpaid now?
Or is your statement just flamebait.
--- Hindsight is 20/20, but walking backwards is not the answer.
I'm migrating the IIS setup to Apache and I see a few differences.
With samba shares, it's almost as easy to open a site for editing (\\server\site) but not as intuitive as FrontPage extensions (http://server/site).
Samba shares aren't accessible over the Internet without a VPN. People like editing sites at home the same way as at work.
Previewing in FrontPage works great since you're editing the same place you're browsing. With Samba, the relationship is broken and you must manually preview everything in your browser yourself, typing the full URL or navigating.
A great feature for Intranets/frontpage is source-control of the site, with checkin/checkout and ability to roll back a file from VSS to any prior version. It's all supported by the FrontPage client.
These are serious issues that I'm finding take a lot of time for "users" to deal with when the setup changes. What, you mean "http://server/site" is edited at "\\server\site"? What the hell is \\? Where am I? Did I leave the iron on?
I've considered the sourcesafe issue for my situation, and realized that a daily CVS would work fine, rather than every single check-in. Especially since most people wind up checking out and forgetting to check in. But for more version-sensitive documents, this could be a problem.
Not to mention the lack of a single decent WYSIWYG HTML editor in Linux, forcing the clients to continue to use FrontPage. If I'm wrong, PLEASE guide me to it.
# Erik
I attended a presentation yesterday for one of my Master's colleagues. Her thesis topic is implementing a buffer optimising technique in PostgreSQL. She claims that although there is extensive theoretical backing for the algorithm, it has never been implemented.
Clearly this will be a major boon for PostgreSQL. Why did she choose that as her platform? Because she can't get access to the source of other DBMSs, of course! (Actually her research group has close enough ties to IBM that she probably could have got DB2, but I'd assume that she's also favouring the smaller source size.)
The best databases of today are commercial, but the best ones of tomorrow will be OS. Just as academia leapfrogged over industry to make Haskell, the really big ideas will appear in OS first.
Most OSS is crap. Sorry, but it's true.
It's pathetically difficult to install, configure, and use, and it lacks robustness.
Apache, Ogg Vorbis, The Gimp, and a few other open-source success stories exist. I'm glad that they do exist, because I believe strongly in the principles behind open-source and free software. But it seems that only the relatively small, focused OSS projects end up being successful (due to their minimal management and coordination requirements), whereas anything much larger quickly becomes a chaotic sloppy mess of unneeded technical complexity and poor architecture.
But the vast majority of OSS is crappy, and the various existing GNU/Linux or BSD systems (even the commercially-developed ones like Red Hat) lack the complete top-down development approach necessary to produce a coherent, easy-to-use system.
I'm tired of all these "prophets" proclaiming what will or what won't happen. Everyone should shut the hell up and work on what interests them. If you want OSS and free software to succeed, quit talking about it and start working on the things it so badly needs (ease of installation, ease of use, standardizard user interface, more robustness, more hardware support). If you work on things with conviction, you'll make your desired outcome happen, and then you won't have to waste your time prophetizing.
And no, this is not a troll. This is an objective and genuine opinion, and I stand by it. Feel free to disagree with me or reply with disgust or hatred, but don't be an immature jackass and moderate the post as a "Troll" just because you disagree.
Moderator hint: a comment is neither "Flamebait" nor "Troll" if it is true.