MMOG Subscription Growth Analyzed

Wtcher writes "Bruce Woodcock has cobbled together a chart recording the growth of various massive multiplayer online games in subscriber numbers, relative to each other. I just found it interesting to see a visual summary of how well each MMOG was doing compared to one another." Apart from Lineage, which is omitted because the author says "trying to compare it to other MMOGs is almost like comparing apples to oranges", it seems that Everquest is still way out there in front, but there's a number of more recently-launched titles jockeying for position in this very competitive market.

Comments

What about ATITD?

[Bistronaut]

You insensitive clod! Oh, wait, this isn't a poll is it? ATITD is my MMOG of choice. Check it out at atitd.com and atitd.net. Of course, I think it's only in the thousands of simultanious players right now.

Data is nice, conclusions are better

[ObviousGuy]

The only conclusion one could come to from looking at this data is that launching a new MMOG today is an exercise in futility. The number of subscribers you can expect is drastically lowered because of the primary first mover Everquest. In short, the barrier to entry for new MMOGs is raised to the point that finding investors willing to take a gamble on your game will be near impossible.

Re:Data is nice, conclusions are better

[baywulf]

Everquest was not the "first mover." There were other MMOGs before it like Ultima Online. So it is still possible for a new game to be successful.

Re:Data is nice, conclusions are better

[ObviousGuy]

Evidence 1: Everquest was not the "first mover."

Evidence 2: There were other MMOGs before it like Ultima Online.

Conclusion: it is still possible for a new game to be successful.

Your conclusion is not supported by any of the evidence. In fact Everquest is the primary first mover as they have defined what it means to be a MMOG. They have all the traits of a first mover including the risk taking involved in pioneering the area and the reward of large numbers of subscribers. That Everquest could wildly succeed against Ultima Online is not indicative of anything. The barrier to entry at that time was much lower than it is now. For a new game to compete well with Everquest it would have to be incredibly great. However, without investor backing, it is unlikely that such a game could be created.

Investors look at the data and see that games that are entering the market later than Everquest are having their lunch handed to them. Not enough money is being made. There are better investment opportunities elsewhere for the VCs.

Re:Data is nice, conclusions are better

[realdpk]

I played everquest for a long time. I've tried to play other MMOGs since. I can't help but compare the two. Many of them fall in to the "send the characters on boring tasks" rut for NPC quests (which have no impact on the world at all). Gets boring.

Basically I don't think I could commit that much time to that kind of game ever again. :)

Re:Data is nice, conclusions are better

[flatrock]

Your conclusion isn't exactly supported by the evidence either.

There are a lot of new MMOGs under development right now. All are getting considerable funding despite the current economic downturn. Many are being funded by the companies that have current popular games. Sony and Atari are funding several.

Look at the data again. While a few games are having population decreases, many are still seeing growth. The market is much more mature than when UO and EQ came out, but it hasn't capped yet, and there is still the viable possibility of a new game stealing market share from one of the current games. EQ is has been wildly profitable, so they are a huge target. If someone can develop a game that steals away 5% to 10% of EQ's players, they'd likely be able to make a lot of money.

Just because there is competition, doesn't mean there isn't a market for new products.

Re:Data is nice, conclusions are better

[startled]

"In short, the barrier to entry for new MMOGs is raised to the point that finding investors willing to take a gamble on your game will be near impossible."

Hence the dozen or so MMOGs that rented floor space at last E3.

Guild Wars, EQ2, Horizons, Warhammer, Lineage 2, Exarch, Mythica, WoW, Planetside (since released) and Middle Earth Online are just the big ones I remember off the top of my head. Apparently the people with the money haven't been scared off.

Expansion Packs and Other Thoughts

[MBCook]

Looking at the graph, expansion packs don't seem to do much of anything to the number of players (execpt for the Acheron's Call, which quickly went back to normal). It would seem that while expansion packs are good at keeping gamers from quitting (things are usually flat after an expansion pack is released) they don't do anything to add to the numbers (what do you expect). That said, here are some things I find interesting about different games:

• EverQuest - What can I say? It shot up fast and while it seems to be slowing down (might start DROPPING soon) it's WAY above everyone else.
• Ultima Online - Can someone explain to me the big upswing before the last expansion pack? The upswing started at about Nov '02. Is this some kind of pre-expansion pack rejoining?
• FFXI - Seems to be growing fast. What do you expect from a FF game?
• Anarchy Online - Why did this suddenly drop/plunge after March '02?
• Sims Online - Went up quick, leveled off quick, what comes next (falls off quick????)?
• WWII Online - Do they have a hard limit on the number of subscribers? It's like a straight line. Would be good if there were more than a handfull of subscribers.

This chart will be cool to watch if he keeps updating it. It will be interesting to see what the new EverQuest game does to the old, etc.

Also, it would be cool to see the same graph, only relative to the previous sample instead (so up/down trends could be seen easier).

I know the answer

[whoda]

Quote:"ShadowBane and Star Wars: Galaxies and PlanetSide. How successful they will be is anyone's guess now."

Well, I for one can pretty safely say that Star Wars: Galaxies will be really, really, really successful.
Anyone want to disagree?

Re:I know the answer

[Snowspinner]

Yes, I want to disagree.

Raph Koster, the lead developer on SWG, is a really intelligent guy who writes some of the most insightful articles around on game design. Unfortunately, as particularly proven with some of his decisions while working on Ultima Online, his insight does not reliably pan out in his game design.

I expect SW:G to be a game with a lot of potential that has so many initial flaws it scares off a lot of its customer base in the first year, and has a hard time winning them back once Koster is replaced with someone more capable of keeping a playerbase together.

Re:I know the answer

[n_jed]

I disagree. With all the beta's, delays etc that have been happening, I think that SW:G will only be released when it is genuinely ready. There will not be major initial flaws to ward off the people. My biggest issue will be how much a month will it cost me in Australia, because $25 AUS a month is too much, unless the game was free and comes with a couple of months free play. So after a year it worked out to be around $150. If it had me hooked still after a year, then I'd probably be happy to pay.

Re:I know the answer

[Anonymous Coward]

After being in the beta for a while, don't hold your breath.
As it is I have already canceled my preorder from last year.
I tried AC2 during its short free-time, and based on what they and SWG are planning to have released by the year AC2 is the definite winner, and I will probably buy that once all its changes settle. Will have to see how horizon and Dragon empires do.
However if you are interested in it, sign up for the beta, they are having to let lots more in then planned since they are having problem keeping people around to keep the server populated.

Re:I know the answer

[mrfunnypants]

Funny thing is your basing one game in beta verses a game that is out on the market. Hmmm I wonder if I should believe your analysis?

Secondly what's up with the AC, you scared to have your opinion stuck to you?

I don't know about you but

[jsse]

when I see Final Fantasy XI trailer, I've a rush urge to retire NOW and play online game all days. :)

I know some people actually playing EQ as their full-time job. Any career counciler here could enlighten me to the path of professional online gamer? :D

A few points addressed.

[Inoshiro]

Everquest is the only MMOG mentioned that has online game cards. I know at least a few customers who don't have or use credit cards who can only play EQ because of this.

Related to this, the EQ online adventures for the PS2 has been the biggest flop ever. A handful of people bought it. Then they lowered the price within a week. A week later it was free with the PS2 network adapter. People didn't even want it then. Their next step? The game retails for 20$ USD, and they have free week game discs that are supposed to be given to every network adaptor owning PS2 user. It's still a flop.

Anarchy Online spikes up right in 2001 when they let everyone who applied for a beta have a copy + a month of game time. It quickly lowers because it was buggy as all shit, and a major turn off for most people.

WW2 online came and went in 2001. Anyone past there would've started to play Battle Field 1942. Another flop, although not as spectacular as EQ online adventures.

I can't wait to see how True Fantasy Live online for Xbox goes. That one looks good :)

Re:A few points addressed.

[will_die]

The Sims also has game cards that can be purchased.

What is Lineage?

[Woy]

Apart from Lineage, which is omitted because the author says "trying to compare it to other MMOGs is almost like comparing apples to oranges"

Why is Lienage so different? what is it? It's not obvious for me.

Thanks.

Re:What is Lineage?

[will_die]

The problem with lineage is that most of thier sales are group accounts to cafes instead of individuals. So a cafe might have 10 accounts but thoses 10 accounts are used by 500 users, each with thier own character.
So do you count the number of accounts sold, or the number of characters?
This is slowly changing as more people get home connections.

Re:What is Lineage?

[Echnin]

That, and it'd fly off the graph, with its 12 million licenses.

If you are interested in this topic, read the book

[will_die]

If you are interested in MMORGPs and this topic get a copy of Developing Online Games.
It goes into a lot more detail then this chart, and provides alot more info on the people who play MMORPGs.

Lineage

[Bish.dk]

LINEAGE FEATURES

In the medieval world of Lineage(TM), choose to be a gallant knight, a resourceful wizard, a crafty elf, or a revered prince or princess. Play surrounded by guarded castles, perilous forests, sinister fens and valleys filled with the undead. Slay ferocious monsters unlike any known to man or elf.

"trying to compare it to other MMOGs is almost like comparing apples to oranges"

Yes, it definately sounds radically different from such boring mainstream products as Everquest.

Re:Lineage

[jwilloug]

The problem isn't the game, it's their sales model. For instance, I'm part of the Earth & Beyond curve, I bought the game about a month after release, played three characters for a couple months, and then canceled. E&B recognizes that I was one user who is no longer player, Lineage would have me down as three users until the end of time.

The Realm Online!

[Calmiche]

Finally someone mentions The Realm Online! I've been playing for about 8 years now. (The first full version was launched in about '97, but the Alpha and Beta stages had been running since about '95.)

I keep telling people about it, but most tell me I'm an idiot for calling it one of the first MMORPG games out there. It came out before Ultima Online, Everquest and Meridian 59, and I still think it's better than all of them combined. (and yes, I've tried most of the MMORPG's out there.)

Re:The Realm Online!

[will_die]

I tends to see the difference of a mud and mmorpg is that a mmorpg has a graphical interface instead of being text based.
In which case they old Plato system had a graphical mud that predates 'The Realm' however I would give 'The Realm' the distinction of being the first modern one.

WWIIOnline thoughts

[Ummagumma]

"WWII Online - Do they have a hard limit on the number of subscribers? It's like a straight line. Would be good if there were more than a handfull of subscribers"

I feel I may be able to shed a bit of light on this one. I've been playing WWIIOL since the day it was released, so I know a bit about this. WWIIOnline caters to a totally different type of subscriber than any other MMOG out there - the 'grognards'. Grognards are a very, um for lack of a better word, 'anal' type of player. They complain about everything, stating a plethora of facts, figures and anecdotes (sp?) when they smell something wrong. With the WWII 'universe', thats fairly easy to do. All the equipment modelled actually existed, and has documented performance. There are people on the message boards that whine because thier Spitfire Mk I is 3 mph slower at sea level in game, than it was in real life. Seriously. You don't get this in other games, there is no documented statistics on the 'Vorpal Sword of l33t slaying'. I think this turns off a portion of the interested crowd, if they happen to read the message boards before joining up.

Also, the barrier to entry is very, very high. Learing how the game is played, especially without a groups help, is very tough - the equipment reacts realistically. And realisticly is not necissarily what is 'expected' - ie. what peoples perceptions are, after watching the History Channel and Saving Private Ryan, as opposed to real-world performance. You tend to get killed ALOT for the first month or so. Most of the players are fairly hardcore, and killing a newbie is really easy. So the frustration level grows exponentially. I imagine that turns some people off in thier first month.

Add to that, that the game has a bad rep for it horrendous launch - incomplete features, missing equipment, constant crashes, 10 minute load times. Those problems are all long gone now, but its stained the reputation of the game. With every patch, the game gets much, much better, and much more advanced features are added. But they have a very small development staff, so patches are fairly infrequent. The boxes are now also off the shelves at the stores, so the exposure to new players isn't there, except for word of mouth.

Having said all that, I love this game, and plan on playing it until they take it off the net. Right now, you can go download the game, and just pay your monthly fees, so the cost to get in isn't that high.

just my .02$
There are lots and lots of improvements

SirBruce sighting!

[Anonymous Coward]

Someone call Lum the Mad to respond.

Interesting that Sir Bruce failed to disclose the fact that he is, or at least was, an investor in Playnet (creator of WWIIOL).

Excercise in futility?

[metamatic]

Not necessarily. The games on the chart are all Windoze only as far as I know, so other platforms are a wide-open market. And remember, you don't need to sell to Windows users to make a profit.

Yeah.

[Inoshiro]

But it and EQ are the only ones that really have no. Anarchy Online, Ultima Online, ShadowBane, WW2 online, etc, don't have such stuff.

Perhaps because EA meant to target younger girls, they wanted the game time cards out there (considering they don't do the same thing for Ultima).

What crack head moded my post flamebait?

Wow, I only just saw this

[SirBruce]

Nobody told me I got slashdotted. No wonder my web site exceeded its bandwidth. Not much to comment on here since there aren't many questions that others haven't already addressed. I do have a better estimate for Lineage now; they have somewhere between 800,000 and 1,000,000 legitimate "subscribers" that could be compared with other games. I'm still waiting for some better historical data, however. WWII Online isn't a flat line; it just looks like it. I'm thinking about breaking the chart into two, one for large and one for small, so you can better see the movements of the smaller MMOGs. I didn't divulge my connection to WWIIOL since it's a pretty open "secret" in the MMOG industry and the article was initially targeted for people who already knew this. My goal in the article is purely that of a research journalist, so I try to avoid any bias. However, I'll probably mention it in an updated version of the article sometime this month. EQ: Online Adventures has 50,000 subscribers now. Still looking for data on ShadowBane. :) Bruce