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Death of the PDA?
An anonymous reader writes "The Economist has an article proclaiming the death of the PDA. Smart phone sales are predicted to overtake PDA sales this year."
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I had a PDA given to me and I found it quite useless. They are generally for business men and people with busy lives that need to keep track of all of their appointments, etc. I, for one, have no need for that. Now on the other hand computers and phones are of greater use to a broader population. I think that explains it.
I don't see the point in a distinction. Is it a PDA with phone capabilities? Is it a phone with PDA capabilities? Either way, if this happens, I wouldn't consider it a "death" but an evolution in what technologies and packagings people decide fits their lifestyles the best.
Just because a radio was integrated into a clock doesn't mean that radio died then, although maybe I wish it did.
exactly, there is no way anyone can do daily scheduling on a phone with little or no hassle; plus I don't remeber hearing that these phones can sync with your computer...but i could be wrong
I agree that this is going to happen inevitably, but I'm not sure it's a great thing for everyone. I'd love to see a smartphone with an open platform, maybe even running linux, someday. Hackers are writing a lot of cool software for PDAs.
I doubt that we're going to get the same thing on phones, though. Mobile phone makers seem intent on keeping everything proprietary, and wireless companies are making money from charging content providers for access to their networks. I think history is going to repeat itself, yet again. Hardware makers are going to try to lock users with proprietary software. It'll probably be years before I'll be able to run my own software on my own phone. Stupid, huh? That's the computer industry for you.
I'm not anti-microsoft. I'm anti-bullshit. Which means I'm anti-microsoft.
The laptops of today do all the things a desktop is supposed to do, but occupy less space.
All proclaim the death of the desktop computer!
The PDAs of today do all the things a laptop is supposed to do, but occupy less space.
All proclaim the death of the laptop computer and, indirectly, the desktop computer!
The phones of today do all the things a PDA is supposed to do, but occupy less space.
All proclaim the death of the PDA computer and, indirectly, the laptop computer and, indirectly, the desktop computer!
We've been told that sub-notebooks are about to replace the notebook and "desktop replacements" are about to replace the desktop for years now. It hasn't happened yet.
Will smartphones replace PDAs?
When smartphones, like the latest batch of Ipaqs or Toshibas, support bluetooth, wifi, multiple I/O capable expansion options (CFII+SDIO) and an extensive list of peripherals, sure.
Maybe "laptop" and "desktop" and "PDA" describe nothing but a form factor. But that's probably the best argument there is for their mutual survival. There's no reason the PDA form factor with PDA size screen will just magically disappear leaving a gap between laptop and phone.
Until they can close this gap, PDAs aren't going to be dead. And a $400 difference is going to take more than 1 year.
I've been holding off getting a PDA because I know smart phones will be affordable in a few years.
I suspect I'm not the only one.
Handspring Treo 270 $249.99 with rebate, $349.99 without
T-Mobile Sidekick (Danger Hiptop) $249.99 with rebate, $299.99 without
RIM Blackberry 6230 $199.99 with rebate, $299.99 without
End of Line.
Yes, it may become trendy for some to take pictures with their cellphones and then email (or MMS) the pictures to their friends and families.
That's a camera phone, not a smartphone. Not comparable to PDAs.
If I need to take pictures, I can use my digital cameras. If I need to do serious computing stuffs (not only number crunching) I can use my laptop. If I need to jot down something, there're pens and paper. If I need to play games, I have PS/2 / X BOX game systems.
Let's see you fit all that in your pocket :-)
Seriously, the whole point of a smartphone is not that it matches the capabilities of any one of those items, but that it provides the basic capabilities of all of them, in one convenient device that is always with you. And they're integrated, which makes for some interesting new capabilities.
I have a digital camera, a laptop, pen and paper and even an XBox, and I use them all, on occasions. I also have a smartphone, and I use it more than any one of those devices, mostly because it's right there in my pocket, not back at home.
Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?
PDA choice nowadays is a religion, just like OSs. Even with the same PDA OS you have your die-hard Sony, Palm or (much less so nowadays) Handspring devotees, attached to various features of the devices offered by a particular vendor. Once you integrate the phone and PDA your choices dwindle, at least for the forseable future. Especially in the fragmented US market I see a truly generic PDA phone less likely, because the vendor would have to create versions for at least GSM and CDMA, and for the latter several versions for various carriers (Sprint, Verizon).
Phones are oldschool anyway and less geeky than a remote control. I use Xten's IP phone on my WiFi powered IPAQ 5455 to dial for free through open access points.
I want a PDA that can transfer data using WiFi for high speed, BlueTooth for short range and GPRS (or similar) for great coverage. For voice, I will continue to use tiny phones that are carry-friendly. I will never buy a PDA/phone that requires me to a) bring it in a bag or b) hang it in my belt.
Call me old-fashioned, but if everything (calendar, contacts, phone-numbers, etc.) is stored on one single device, loosing that device while on the road is disastrous.
I was actually thinking of replacing my Palm with my new cellphone, but said cellphone died on me while on the road (NEVER trust the standby times in the glossy papers!). Actually it's not a problem to find a phone booth, but it's 'Game Over' if you don't know the number you'll intend to call by heart, don't you think??
Checking the 'iSynced' Palm saved me that day.
Just something to think about.
And as far as convergence goes, I'd say it's not likely. I don't use my organiser too often, but I *never* use the oganiser on the phone.
I'd be more interested in an article that examined how many people use the organiser-like functions on their mobiles. I only got mine for the camera.
Warning: May contain nuts
I actually want screens to get smaller but with a much better DPI.
What I'd like in the end is something the size of my ipod with the power of my PC. The display and sound would be though my glasses which would go from sun glasses to a high rez screen with an insane refresh rate (so they don't give you head aches). The glasses would also act as a mic so you can speak into it. Because it's on your skin it should be able to pick up mumbles so you can speak really quitely to activate the interface (voice reconition).
The computer (ipod size) Would have multiple connections so you can plug in a mouse, screen keyboard which are faster than voice reconition but not as good "on the run".
That's what i'd like.
Most of this looks like it's going o be possible except the hires glasses. Current display technology isn't good enough to be that close at that high a rez for long periods. You'd get a massive head ache way to quickly.
For example, I can enter appointment and contact data on the phone, have the phone alert me to upcoming appointments, send short emails, even pictures, without the laptop. Once I get near the laptop or desktop, it all syncs into my three computers.
There's only one problem with my setup (for some people) and that is the computers are all Macs (with .Mac service)
After hassling for a few years with ActiveSync and lost partnerships and difficulties using multiple computers, the Mac is just a shear joy for this stuff.
As for PDAs, there's now PDAs that are really phones that do what you want, but I don't want my phone all that big so my combo works great for me. My 12" Powerbook is small and light enough that it's not that much of a hassle to toss it into my backpack when needed on the go.
You may want to rethink that.
Pop quiz: What's the core functional difference between a phone and a PDA? Answer: One you tap on and write on; the other you jam up against your ear. As a result, each is physically designed with different goals. Phones are getting smaller and more curved to match the contours of your head (e.g., the clamshell design that's arisen in the past five years.) PDA design is centered around maximizing screen size - only the dinkiest PDAs, like Palm M100s, have tiny screens. Larger screens are better for "computer-like" applications - seeing lots of text in Excel, Reader, etc. Indeed, modern screens are still too small for effective web browsing, so expect that trend to continue.
Similarly, look at how each one handles power. My iPaq 5550 PDA, with its bright screen, fast processor, and 802.11/Bluetooth adapters, is a huge power hog - it's always complaining that it wants juice. It's not an issue, though, because when I need to use it, it's only for short periods of time - just long enough to find an email address. My phone, though, must be reliable, since it's a more necessary device - so it serves me better by being more reliable, as a low-power, long-battery-life device. (Unless battery technology works itself out of this rut of stagnant improvement, the only alternative is a higher-capacity battery, which is heavier... and no one wants that.)
So the current type of evolution is divergent, not convergent. That makes sense, because PDAs are becoming less like organizers and more computer-like in computing power and end-user functionality.
Three follow-up points:
1) I'm all for eliminating redundant devices, because it reduces cargo, data sprawl (having your data spread over multiple devices), and batter charging.
(Case in point: If any portable electronics market is on the verge of extinction, it's the MP3 player market - once portable media reaches 20gb capacities, your whole MP3 collection will fit on one (or a few) small card usable in any small device, and a dedicated device for that storage will be pointless.)
2) If you really want to eliminate a device, then instead of a phone that provides portable computing on a tiny, unusable screen, how about a traditional PDA that provides phone functionality over a headset attachment? Unfortunately, PDA manufacturers don't offer this yet, but I suspect (OK, hope) that it's in the pipe.
3) Long-term, this entire debate is moot. In a decade, we probably won't use either device. We'll carry around one relatively dumb device that serves as a communications portal.
Think of it this way. Wireless providers will eventually wise up and realize that people actually do want high-speed Internet connections in portable devices. This will become especially true as Internet telephony/voice-chatting gains ground, because then wireless Internet will be a superset of traditional cellphone service: it does everything cellphones do, and more. No more "phone me at 215-427-8931"; instead, "phone me at joesmith.com".
Anyway, consider what happens when wireless Internet access becomes fast, affordable, widespread, always-on, and reliable. Now, you have the potential to have your PDA connect to your home server at all times. At that point, you've gotta ask: Why do you need a mobile processor? Would you rather use a dinky 50MHz processor on your PDA that burns a bunch of battery power and requires a separate data store - or, just let your home-based 50-gigahertz Pentium-7 send you a broadband video and audio stream?
So your PDA is now just an input/output portal to your home computer, providing access to all the same data as if you were sitting at home. Hell, the uber-powerful 3D video card on your home PC could even render gorgeous graphics and send them to your PDA! (Counterstrike 2012 on your PDA, w00t!) And since the only functions your PDA provides are input and output, you can d
Computer over. Virus = very yes.
the product isn't going to -die-. this is how convergence devices are -born-.
PDA market growth is just going to come in the form of convergence devices more and more. some consumers will see it as new phone tech on their next PDA, most will see it as new PDA tech on their next phone. but neither product will 'die'. dedicated PDAs will simply be relegated to markets where having phone capability isn't worth the cost.
in the same reactionary vein one could argue that mp3 players are going to 'die' because of the proliferation of that core functionality showing up in PDAs and cellphones. (without near killer-app sized storage though).
i think the obvious explanation is consumers are demanding a single 'thing' that is their interface to mobile digital information. be it 3G phone, PIM, mp3, email, or mobile data storage. then there's society: having a cellphone is not 'geeky', nor is having a cellphone with PIM functionality.
but having a cellphone + mp3 player + PDA certainly still is.
and practicality: having to manage the batteries on 3+ digital devices is a headache. particularly when you are generally using only one or the other.
my ideal convergence device:
embedded Linux-based OS (for custom programming)
full bandwidth 3G phone (w/ 1m CCD, 24fps video capability)
CF type2 slot
built-in WiFi (802.11b is fine)
short range FM transmitter (for car usage without a dongle)
built in HD ~6gB (preferrably magneto-SRAM)
usb2.0/firewire
OSS PIM
mp3 audio software
mp4/divx video software
tabletPC-style graffiti interface, with automatic translation for text-boxes would be good too.
no more hunt and stab with the stylus for url input.
no SD, no MemoryStick -- no DRM at all thank-you-very-much.
battery: li-ion, rechargable via usb/firewire/dc adapter. ~10 hrs running time.
size: about 4"x2.5".
attachable secondary battery, camelback style, for long trips/flights would be great too.
right now one pays:
~$275 for the mp3 player and storage
~$150 for basic PDA
~$175 for a capable 3G phone
would i pay $600 for all of this rolled into one? most certainly. hell i already spent $200 on the pda and $140 on a nex2e and 512mb CF card. if i get a decent cameraphone i'm out another $150 at least. then there was another $50 for the wifi adapter for the pda.
to be able to have all that functionality in one widget is worth at least $150 by itself. particularly if it has respectable battery life.
// "Can't clowns and pirates just -try- to get along?"