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X17 Solar Flare Sends 2B Tons of Plasma at Earth
Dr. Zowie writes "This morning a very large solar flare erupted from a
large sunspot group that is crossing the face of the Sun. The explosion sent over 2 billion tons of material hurtling across the solar system toward Earth. Movies from the SOHO spacecraft show the flare
in UV and the associated
coronal mass ejection in visible light as they happened, and the impact of high energy protons that the flare launched at about half the speed of light. NOAA's Space Environment Center shows that the Sun's X-ray brightness went up 100x during the flare. Expect more aurora and geomagnetic effects in the next day or two!"
more
Sunspots.
"Remember, any tool can be the right tool." -- Red Green
Now I can put out my plasma nets and catch some of it. I was beginning to worry that I'd never be able to restock my dwindling supply!
I am a filthy pirate.
Skinner: Ah, there's nothing more exciting than science. You get all
the fun of sitting still, being quiet, writing down numbers,
paying attention...[chuckles] Science has it all.
spaceweather.com has an interesting service that will page you if there is an aurora in your locality. Check it out.
this will prolly get modded down, but it looks as if Shamash, the mesopotamian sun-god is finally voicing his opinion.....
xao
xao
http://TheHillforum.hopto.org
The sunspot cycle (which takes 11 years) peaked in 2000, yet there's an unusually large amount of activity of late. There was a somewhat intense solar flare a few days ago, and now this one, which is believed to be the third-largest one on record. Are there any explanations for this large amount of activity at what should be a non-peak time?
Time to find the ethernet cables and plug in all those wireless laptops...
No 802.11b, 1 year!
Why next day or two? At the half of speed of light, this stuff should hit us in about 16 minutes. So you can't really "prepare" for something like this. What am I missing?
I'll have to take off my tinfoil hat!
I knew it... sooner or later those evil aliens would find a way to read my mind.
Forget Iraq, the 2004 Election, the economy...
And people question our space exploration budget!!! Silly people!
D.O.U.O.S.V.A.V.V.M.
These events are already causing a slashdot effect on the solar weather sites without Slashdot even mentioning them, so here's a copy of the best report I've come across, from http://www.spacew.com/cme/index.html:
Event #49 - 28 October 2003
Issued: 16:30 UTC, 28 October 2003
SOURCE EVENT
Class X17.2 Flare in Region 486 at 11:10 UTC on 28 October 2003
Type II: 1250 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 2125 km/sec
ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH
Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 29 October to 21:00 UTC on 29 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 08:00 UTC, 29 October 2003 (3 am EST on 29 October)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 9
Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact
At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD
IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS
The preferred time of arrival is ***TONIGHT***, TUESDAY NIGHT (before you go to bed that night) near or after 3 am Eastern Standard Time).
That's 2 am Central Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's 1 am Mountain Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's MIDNIGHT Pacific Standard Time on TONIGHT.
EXPECT RESIDUAL ACTIVITY (LESS INTENSE) TOMMORROW NIGHT (WEDNESDAY, 29 OCT) AS WELL !
EVENT #49 NOTES:
This is the most energetic Earthward-directed event of the solar cycle.
SEVERE to MAJOR geomagnetic storming is expected to abruptly commence following the arrival of the shock front from this flare.
This flare was associated with a Ground-Level Event. It was also associated with very high energy protons at greater than 100 MeV (which are still climbing, over 5 hours after the event began). A magnetic crochet was observed over the daylit sections of the ionosphere. An exceptionally intense shortwave fadeout and polar cap absorption event are in progress. There are reports this event was observed in white-light. Intense radio bursts were associated with this event across the spectrum. The type II shock velocity is not representative of the observed velocity of this CME. The observed velocity as determined by SOHO was 2125 km/sec.
This event has the potential to produce the strongest geomagnetic storm since 1989. Auroral activity could become visible into the deep low latitude regions. This one is worth driving a good long distance over to find clear skies. It has better potential to produce low-latitude aurora than almost any other event observed in the past decade. Keep in mind that it is also possible the disturbance may not be nearly as geoeffective as many would like. It all depends on the character of the magnetic fields imbedded within the coronal mass ejection. However, we believe it will either be very large, or only modestly large in terms of its capacity to produce disturbed geomagnetic and auroral activity. We do not expect this disturbance to be small.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.
If we don't stop these constant barrages from the Sun then the terrorists will win!
Thank god we've got all that extra CO2 in the atmosphere to protect us!
Anybody want a peanut?
That blast on the last few frames of the CME mpg file is the CME that occured earlier today. The end of the movie looks like someone polka-dotted the screen, but from the NOAA's website, that's actually the high-charged protons from the CME hitting the camera's lens. This is one whopper of a storm.
Rule #1 -- Politics always trumps technology.
This unprovoked attack on the planet Earth cannot be allowed to go unpunished! I say we take a page from the Israelis and build an orbital wall that will prevent any further such incursions in the future!
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
We have probably 30-40 different Sun servers at our shop that actually are affected by this. I guess (it sounds stupid as hell but its true) certain models of Sun's 400 mhz processors (used in anything from Ultra 10's to E4500's) were not shielded properly and actually can panic when substantial CME's like this occur.
I told the sun last night that those eight beef soft taco supremes were a bad idea. But did he listen to me? NOOOooooo.
"I'm a leaf on the wind. Watch how I soar."
-Hoban Washburn
And people told me my tin-foil hat wouldn't come in useful!
tasks(723) drafts(105) languages(484) examples(29106)
This list is based in part on "Large Solar Flares Since 1976" compiled by IPS Radio & Space Services.
Ranking Day/Month/Year X-Ray Class
1 02/04/01 X20.0
1 16/08/89 X20.0
2 28/10/03 X17.2
3 06/03/89 X15.0
3 11/07/78 X15.0
4 15/04/01 X14.4
5 24/04/84 X13.0
5 19/10/89 X13.0
etc.. etc..
"
I would have suggested classifications go to 11, but clearly they go much higher...
Batten down those scintillation counters! Unhook the HF radios!
...-.-
You may notice Radio TV, and even cell phones will be effected (briefly) by this storm. I am on a Broadcast Engineer's mailing list and there have been sporadic reports of problems in the last few days.
The engineer at WBRC reported a rash of viewer calls in the past few days about reception problems including a call from a distant (100 miles) cable system with 4 separate headends, each exhibiting the same poor signal for minutes at a time then clears up.
Also, NOAA describes the geomagnetic affects on radio blackouts as "severe" in the last 24 hours . http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/
Are any of you having similar listener/viewer complaints?
http://www.spaceweather.com lets us know "DON'T PANIC: Some rumors spreading across the internet claim that the ongoing solar storm could wreak terrible havoc on Earth. Not so. There is a slim chance of power blackouts and communication outages, but the main side effect of this solar activity will be harmless and beautiful auroras."
However, all the predictions currently are that this event has the potential of causing a K-inded 9 geomagnetic storm (G5). NOAA's classification of G5 effects is:
Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.
Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.
Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40 geomagnetic lat.)**.
In addition, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for
Astrophysics has issued a press-release warning that "In California, where raging wildfires have damaged many microwave communication antennas on the ground, satellite communications have been crucial to emergency efforts. Emergency personnel should be prepared for potential disruptions and communication interference."
All of this, however, is somethign that MAY happen, while it likely won't. A lot of factors about the nature of the event and the situation in the interplanetary space between Sun and Earth affect how it'll turn out. But there's still a lot of potential for this one.
Sounds like Sun (the company, not the bright thing that lights up the Big Room) blowing smoke up your ass. There's a cache coherency bug on some 400 MHz UltraSPARC II processors with 8 meg ecache that causes panics. *Maybe* this bug has a slightly higher chance of manifesting itself during a CME, but I doubt it (anything is possible). They denied this problem for a long time until some high-profile clients threw a fit and Sun offered to replace the affected processors. That free replacement program is almost certainly over now; we replaced dozens of these cpus at a previous employer.
It's Sun's fault, not the sun's fault.
-Isaac
I am not a lawyer, and this is not legal advice. For Entertainment Purposes Only.
...that tinfoil lining will come in handy.
Ignorance is the root of all evil.
Due to a fight on Capitol Hill, NOAA's Space Environment Center (which tracks these events and other 'space weather' items) will not have any funding in 2004. The part of Congress that oversees NOAA does not think NOAA should have to pay for this, and has decided to cancel its funding in hopes that they can force NASA or the Air Force to pick up the tab.
- 128.htm
There is a hearing on the situation on Thursday the 30th.
http://www.house.gov/science/press/108/108
"Fifty million Americans can't be wrong," said Rep. Billy Tauzin. Gore - 50,999,897 Bush - 50,456,002
Of course Sunoco's stock price is up. When the power grid collapses tonight, everyone's going to need gasoline to run their generators.
Rank Presidents by th
The mighty and powerful X10 Corporation is now exacting its revenge upon its enemies! No popunders, you say? Fine! They have now upgraded from X10 to X17, and instead of simply displaying popunder windows they will now bombard the Earth with fireballs!
(...and the followers of Mammon shall tremble.)
Tired of FB/Google censorship? Visit UNCENSORED!
It's cloudy and rainy in Vancouver. :-(
If you don't want to repeat the past, stop living in it.
torrent link since the movies were getting a bit sluggish :)
Your hair look like poop, Bob! - Wanker.
We will not be scared of these "solar evil-doers." The Sun is part of an "axis of stellar evil" that we must stamp out. We will make no distinction between solar flares, and the stars that sponsor these flares. Our nation will launch a campaign to stamp out all stellar terrorism in our galaxy. These nukyular furnaces of fear will no longer terrorize our nation, or Texas. Anybody wanna peanut?
Duck...and COVER!
alternate plan:
Turn off your cellphone, place your hands behind your head, put your head between your knees, and kiss your data communications goodbye. For a little while. And don't forget to stare at the pretty Northern Lights tonight! (hopefully)
Beauty is in the eye of the beerholder.
Pretty nifty! It states a comment should vaporize before impacting, but it is still kind of ironic!
I bet it was an alien spaceship or missile and its doomsday! :P
The above article references the 1989 geomagnetic storm. During that storm, large blackouts occurred in Quebec due to induced currents circulating in the power grid. Transformers are built to transmit AC current and do not like it when large quasi-DC currents appear out of the sky. The transformers tend to overheat and fail, and in a fragile power grid, this can lead to cascading failures and blackouts.
More information about this phenomenon (and an engineered solution to it) is available on my company's website.
Take off, every Hoser
There are no solar flares! The mass ejections have been driven out of the solar system, and are committing suicide as we speak! The rumors that the so-called flares are nuclear powered are fueled by the delusions of madmen who are sick in the head! Sick, I tell you!
ra?? ptah...i do not heed him...(he he he)
xao
xao
http://TheHillforum.hopto.org
I'm guessing nobody told you. They have to be female virgins. You and your 12 roommates won't accomplish much.
Karma: Dyn-o-mite!(mostly affected by Jimmy Walker reading your comments)
Moe: Let's go burn down the observatory so this will never happen again!
I like my women like my coffee... pale and bitter.
Yeah, but I tried signing up to it with my cell, but everytime there is one of these massive flares I never get the alerts, It's like the service has a hard time calling me during those events or something.
I'm too lazy to compose a creative sig.
Oct. 28, 2003 | WASHINGTON (FX) -- President Bush blamed both the Sun and Moon for the recent rash of potentially devastating solar flare attacks in and around Earth.
"Basically what they're trying to do is cause people to run," he told a Rose Garden news conference Tuesday. "That's what terrorists, major weather phenomena, fires, and large things in space do." Bush said the United States was working closely with Papau New Guinea and Mongolia to prevent foreign fighters from going to the Sun in order to help it "cause more trouble".
"The Sun is dangerous because it believes that we are soft, that the will of the United States can be shaken by major stellar eruptions," he said in a 45-minute exchange with reporters. However, he said that experts in his administration had warned him that, rather like North Korea, that the Sun was equipped with nukular weapons therefore to attack it would be dangerous.
The Moon on the other hand, had clearly not provided an eclipse to shield the Earth from a solar flare. While some academic paper-pushing bureaurcrats (denounced by Bill O'Reilly as a "bunch of pansy telescope wankers") argued that this was a natural consequence of the Moon's orbit, Bush hinted that if the Moon "really wanted to" it could have protected the Earth from this attack.
"The Moon is much weaker than the Sun and we already have people in the military who know how to get there" Bush argued. "And we have intelligence documents showing that lunar-driven tides helped a ship containing Nigerian yellowcake reach a dock in Iraq in 1991."