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Perfect Weather on the Net

Posted by michael on from the problems-for-a-rainy-day dept.

ctwxman writes "Here in the East, we're having a heck of a weekend. The snow has been flying, accompanied by wind, accompanied by people on TV saying, 'stay home.' I'm one of those people. I forecast the weather for a living. It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill. And, there's a new puzzle every day, tenuously linked to the one you solved yesterday. When I started doing this over 20 years ago, the data to accomplish the task was tough to come by. I remember how excited I got when I first was able to get data at 300 baud on a request/reply basis (I guess we call that interactive now). Now, nearly everything you need to forecast the weather is here, on the net. Yes, there are a zillion sites that already have the finished forecast, but this is Slashdot. We don't need no stinkin' forecasters!" Read on for ctwxman's notes on do-it-yourself weather forecasting.

ctwxman continues:

I always like to start at NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) for a look at the dynamic models. Each is run using somewhat different equations, making them often come up with different, quite contrary solutions. Some of these models, like the GFS are worldwide in their coverage and forecast out an amazing 16 days (note: the word accurately was not used in the last sentence). Once the dynamic models are through, we can massage them against past performance under similar circumstances at specific places. These are the statistical models, referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistic) models. Again, there are somewhat different solutions from different models. If none of these work for you, run your own. There are programs available to allow you to run your own model, specifying the domain, grid spacing, time interval, etc. The most commonly used research model of this type is the MM5, produced at Penn State University. Run it on your PC! Of course, it's freely available and supported. Sometimes, the data you want already exists, but not in the form you'd like to see it. That's where software like GrADS comes in. Put out by the Institute of Global Atmosphere and Society's Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, GrADS claims to be an 'interactive desktop tool that is used for easy access, manipulation, and visualization of earth science data.' I agree with all except 'easy.' I run a version of GrADS on my server in order to produce localized forecast graphics like this that wouldn't otherwise be available. Yes, looking at satellite imagery and radar is a lot of fun... but the real fun is knowing what will be there before you look. And, astoundingly enough, we are significantly more accurate (and I get assaulted significantly less often at the grocery store) than even a few years ago.

68 of 290 comments (clear)

  1. Run your OWN weather station by caferace · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I bet I'm not alone doing this. Decent weather stations are cheap, and it's simple enough to hook it into your box and keep statistical models on a running basis. Using wx200d and an Oregon Scientific WM-918 (sold under other names as well) is a great solution for less than USD $200.

    Granted, it's not true forecasting, but you can easily add your data to aggregate with other users at Weather Underground and pull radar data from just about anywhere.

    Me? I just like to know what's happening NOW, but it's also pretty handy to know what the temp is in your home "server room".

    Tying all this historical data back into longer range forecasts would be fun. I've found TV forecasting to be pretty stale and inaccurate. How many of them have real meteorological degrees anyway?

    1. Re:Run your OWN weather station by The+Dobber · · Score: 4, Funny

      How many of them have real meteorological degrees anyway?

      I ain't watchin the Weather Bunnies cause of thier metrological (sp) ability.

      Anyone ever note the frequency of pregnancies on the Weather Channel. Place must be a god damn rabbit warren.

    2. Re:Run your OWN weather station by barzok · · Score: 4, Informative
      How many of them have real meteorological degrees anyway?
      Ever notice how some of the TV weather people are called "weathermen" while others are called "meteorologists"? Many meteoroglogists are also members of a professional organization (the name escapes me) and will display that organization's logo next to their name when they're on-screen.
    3. Re:Run your OWN weather station by gnu-generation-one · · Score: 5, Informative

      Even if you don't want to run a climate model, try putting XPlanet on your background, and get the updated cloud images every 3 hours.

      It's a great way to stay informed about what's happening weather-wise around you, and you'll be able to watch the weather-forecasts with an "I guessed as much", from being constantly aware of the cloud pictures.

    4. Re:Run your OWN weather station by 534154414E · · Score: 3, Funny
      Wow indeed, I routinely worry about the weather at home when traveling beyond Earth's atmosphere. ;)

      Tom to Ground Control, come in. Over.

      Ground Control here, what's problem, Tom? Over.

      I was just looking at my home weather status and my A/C seems broken, again. Could you get a tech over there to check it out? Over.

      Sorry, Tom, You've started chsshhhh chshhhshshhh -king up cshshhhhhhhhh...

    5. Re:Run your OWN weather station by Spunk · · Score: 2, Funny

      Then may I suggest the Naked News?

    6. Re:Run your OWN weather station by AlexisMachine · · Score: 4, Informative

      If you have a degree in Meteorology or Atmospheric Science (basically you took all the hard classes with Calculus) then you're a Meteorologist.

      These days, you can get a broadcast Meteorolgy degree from Mississippi State or SUNY Albany, and become an weatherman without all the tough classes.

      The logo you're talking about is the
      AMS Seal of Approval.

  2. Old wives tails by rf0 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Red sky at night shepards delight. Red sky in the morning shepards warning.

    Lot of truth in that saying

    Rus

    --
    Cheap UK and US VPS
    1. Re:Old wives tails by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful
      I thought it was sailor, not shepard.

      I guess you're closer to the sheep than the sea.

    2. Re:Old wives tails by Professor_Quail · · Score: 4, Informative

      It has to do with the way fronts and pressure systems move...if there's a red sky at night, it means a high pressure front has moved in (means clear weather); a red sky at morning means just the opposite, an area of low pressure has moved in.

      Here's a site with more on weather proverbs:
      Weather Proverbs

    3. Re:Old wives tails by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Didn't know wives had tails!!? I guess we must descend from the monkeys after all, then.

    4. Re:Old wives tails by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      The origin can be traced to the Bible (possibly before, but don't know of any reference):

      Matthew 16:3:

      He answered and said unto them, "When it is evening, ye say, 'It will be fair
      weather: for the sky is red.'
      And in the morning, 'It will be foul weather today: for the sky is red and
      lowring.'"

      Not only can the colour of the sky be affected by pressure fronts as pointed out in other places, but it can also indicate the movement of cold fronts. I suppose the 'sailor version' is more well known in the US because almost the entire population imigrated by sea... but the 'shepherd version' which is more well known in Europe, will pervade agricultural commuities more.

    5. Re:Old wives tails by sfm · · Score: 2, Funny

      Red sky at night, sailors delight
      Red sky at morning sailors take warning

      (And the important corrollary...)

      Brown sky all day, your in L.A.

    6. Re:Old wives tails by mark_space2001 · · Score: 2, Informative
      I sail on the west coast and in San Francisco Bay. This saying comes the east coast and it has to do with the moisture content in the air. It does work for them but doesn't work on the west coast.

      I'm not sure what the equivalent saying would be for SF. Probably something pithy about five to seven fog cycles, which is the biggest hazard on the bay.

    7. Re:Old wives tails by xenocide2 · · Score: 2, Funny

      And the famous corrolary, "If the birds are in the sky and upside down, you're drunk and lying on the ground." Courtesy Bill Engvall.

      --
      I Browse at +4 Flamebait

      Open Source Sysadmin

    8. Re:Old wives tails by 75th+Trombone · · Score: 2, Informative

      "Shepherd" is a verb here, genius...

      --
      The United States of America: We do what we must because we can.
  3. I got it... by hookedup · · Score: 3, Funny


    Look out the window.

  4. A great job... by wrinkledshirt · · Score: 5, Funny

    It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill.

    Coupled with the fact that nobody expects weathermen to be right anyway, must be a great living.

    Imagine a nuclear physicist saying, "You know, it's funny, but yesterday all indications were that today was going to be a smooth day for our reactor. How about that, eh?"

    --

    --------
    Bleah! Heh heh heh... BLEAH BLEAH!!! Ha ha ha ha...

    1. Re:A great job... by thorpie · · Score: 4, Funny

      "Trust me, i'm a weather forecaster" is my standard "you can trust me line". I still use it, but if forecasts get better I may have to change back to "I'm a used car salesman" or "I work for SCO" or the like.

      --
      The memories of a man in his old age are the deeds of a man in his prime - Floyd, Pink
    2. Re:A great job... by glrotate · · Score: 4, Funny

      Alternatively tell them your an economist.

    3. Re:A great job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      IANAWM, but my understanding is that accurate forecasting is all about the quality of your data, the quality of your models, and how many times and how far out you can run them, accounting for typical local variations.

      The guys who report the weather forecast on TV and radio don't. They're basing their forecasts on the basic atmospheric data and doppler radar. Which is not bad in and of itself, but it's only part of the picture. Forecasting like that is by nature limited in its ability to be accurate. Especially as you get more than a few hours out.

      There are models and technology capable of pretty amazing forecasting. But it's too expensive for everyday weather. That's what NOAA uses to track and forecast hurricanes--the stuff that can wreak catastrophic damage. But the side effect is that the hydrologists who work with these models in coastal areas and river basins also have access to the most accurate and distant weather predictions. But it's an NOAA policy to limit its information dispersal so as not to provide competition to business. Their mandate is to provide services which protect the U.S. interests and populace.

      It's far beyond what the media has time or interest in providing. Besides, the most important part of weather forecasting is to know in advance of potentially dangerous weather, and that message gets out when it exists.

      Incidentally, here outside Boston I've just cleared ~26" of snow from my--thankfully short--driveway. More where it drifted, predominantly around the cars, of course.

    4. Re:A great job... by GuidoDEV · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I've got an AthlonXP 2100+ and can run an 84-hour forecast using the MM5 in 2 1/2 hours. The domain is the continental US (plus some buffering around the CONUS, such as southern canada, parts of the atlantic/pacific, etc.), with a 40km gridpoint spacing and 30 vertical levels.

      By contrast, the Eta model run by NCEP currently runs at 12km grid spacing with around 100 vertical levels (I believe), but the key is that the forecast from a 40km model run and a 12km model run usually differ very little, though the 12km run will have a little better resolution and may be a little more useful as a result. If the model runs have a resolution much better than 12km, however, you start running into problems where events like individual thunderstorms are explicitly resolved in the models' physics, as opposed to simply being "parameterized" (i.e., triggered in the model when certain larger-scale, favorable features are present). This sounds all well and good, but unfortunately the models are notoriously bad at explicitly resolving small-scale features like thunderstorms--much work needs to be done in this area.

      In short, the average person can run their own weather model on their PC with no problems whatsoever, it no longer requires a supercomputer to do so. Good luck getting very skillful results beyond days 5-7 in your forecast, though.

  5. Weather Stations? by Xenothaulus · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Spend time outside. The more you do that, the more attuned you become to the weather and what it's going to do. Yes, I said outside. It's that place on the other side of the window by your desk.

    1. Re:Weather Stations? by RealProgrammer · · Score: 2, Informative

      spend time outside

      My grandfather taught me to watch the birds. They get nervous when the weather is about to change.

      Smell the air, look at the sky, examine the clouds, and feel the wind, the temperature, and the humidity.

      I can almost always tell whether it's going to rain or not. In central Illinois, that's quite a trick.

      --
      sigs, as if you care.
    2. Re:Weather Stations? by ErixTr · · Score: 2, Funny

      It's that place on the other side of the window by your desk.

      What is that "window" thing you are talking about?

      --
      less is more
  6. Where's the raw data? by Quixote · · Score: 4, Interesting
    I work in machine learning, and weather forecasting has always seemed like an interesting problem to explore. However, the lack of accurate raw data (temperature, dewpoints, pressure, humidity, precipitation, etc.) going back 30-40 years is a handicap. Where can one get such raw data, in a machine-readable format?

    Also, I have been toying with the idea of writing a script to automatically grade the predictions put out by Wunderground and Weather.com, to see how accurate they are. It would be nice to see if it is really worth it to rely on their 5-day forecast.

    1. Re:Where's the raw data? by aemain · · Score: 5, Informative

      NOAA's National Climatic Data Center has a lot of the raw data available, most of it for free (especially if you're coming from a .edu domain). Both US and international data.

  7. Re:That's great for the US by brarrr · · Score: 2, Funny

    It's gonna be cold, eh?

    --
    to email me: take my /. handle and append .net preceded by charter.
  8. In a related story... by cr@ckwhore · · Score: 5, Funny

    Meanwhile, weather forecasters around the world were puzzled Sunday as access to weather data over the internet crawled to a halt. A Whitehouse representative denied rumors of a terrorist attack on the weather infrastructure.

    The mysterious cause of the delays in weather data are under investigation.

    --
    Skiers and Riders -- http://www.snowjournal.com
  9. If Only it was right! by mstieg · · Score: 2, Funny

    Here in Seattle the weather forcasts are wrong more than they are right. They're so bad I quit checking the forecasts years ago.

    If forecasters got paid based on accuracy, they'd owe me money!

    1. Re:If Only it was right! by no+reason+to+be+here · · Score: 4, Funny

      Here in Seattle the weather forcasts are wrong more than they are right.

      How the Hell can you screw up a weather forecast for Seattle?

      "Tomorrow's weather forecast: 'Rain'"

      --
      my pet machine
    2. Re:If Only it was right! by Laplace · · Score: 2, Funny

      Try this trick on for size. You live in Seattle, so the weather does follow some predictable patterns. Look to the south-west. Any approaching warm fronts will be coming from that direction. You can get up to two hours of warning of oncoming rain. Swing your gaze to the west/north-west. High cirrus clouds on the horizon predict rain up to 8 hours ahead of time. It's amazing how accurate you can become at predicting the daily weather with just a little practice.

      --
      The middle mind speaks!
    3. Re:If Only it was right! by Lispy · · Score: 2, Funny

      "They're so bad I quit checking the forecasts years ago."

      Yup, just as with Computers, last time I checked they were damn slow so I quit using them years ago.

    4. Re:If Only it was right! by gurustu · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Seattle (and West Coast) accuracy is always going to be lower than you'd like (and lower than the East Coast's, for example) simply as a result of fewer observations.

      The rest of the nation gets to see weather data from thousands of weather stations as patterns move from West to East, while Seattle gets its (relatively) skimpy data from satellites and scattered ocean stations.

  10. Not sure they've gotten more accurate.... by analog_line · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I'm in the Beverly/Salem area and at least the numbers I've been seeing for accumulation are all way too low. They're saying 7-14 inches total for the weekend on NECN for our area, and I personally walked through at least 7 inches of new undrifted snow that has fallen between 2:30 AM and 12:00PM. There's two foot of fall out there if there's an inch, and the snow plows STILL can't keep up with it. 4 foot plus drifts. There was 3 feet of snow on two of the three doors, and the other only a foot and a half.

    7-14 inches overnight, I can believe. For the whole storm is utterly ridiculous. Don't know where these people are getting their figures, but someone around here isn't looking out the window, all I have to say.

  11. There are only 10 types of people by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    those who understand METAR and TAF and those who don't...

    e.g.:
    (Terminal Airport Forecast of J-F Kennedy Airport)
    2002/11/17 09:14
    KJFK 170914Z 170913 03021G32KT 6SM -RA BR OVC012
    TEMPO 0913 3SM RA BR OVC008
    FM1400 02013G20KT 5SM -RA BR OVC012
    FM2100 36011KT 5SM -RA BR OVC020
    FM0400 34009KT 5SM -RA BR OVC015

    1. Re:There are only 10 types of people by nicklott · · Score: 4, Informative

      Sorry, have to plug my own site here... :)

      I know a website that does it all for you

    2. Re:There are only 10 types of people by AlphaOne · · Score: 3, Interesting

      BZZT. Try again.

      On the 17th, at 09:14 GMT, winds were from 030 at 21 knots, gusting to 32 knots. Visibility was six statute miles with light rain and mist. The sky was overcast at 1200 feet.

      Temporarily, for less than two hours, between 0900 to 1300 GMT, visibility will drop to 3 statue miles with moderate rain and mist and the ceiling will drop to 800 feet overcast.

      From 14:00 to 21:00 GMT, winds will shift to be from 020 at 13 knots, gusting to 20 knots. Visibility will rise to 5 statute miles with light rain and mist. Sky will be overcast at 1200 feet. ... etc. They're actually easy to read if you do it often enough. I can usually decode METAR faster than I can read an ordinary plain-english forecast.

      --
      All opinions presented here aren't mine.
  12. Programing for dummies by KillerCow · · Score: 4, Funny

    Yes, there are a zillion sites that already have the finished forecast, but this is Slashdot. We don't need no stinkin' forecasters!

    Find a problem that has already been solved, and re-solve it.

  13. On this note, but something completely different.. by cshuttle · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Since I was real little, I'd always been interested in the weather and forecasting and all that stuff. Now that toasters and other such standalone devices are becoming so prevalent, I'm looking for the simplest thing that apparently doesn't exist:

    How about an 802.11 weather station?

    I'm just looking for something that sits outside my house, collects weather data and other such simple stuff, and relays that data back to a server to build a web page with or whatever.

    True, there are some devices like this available, but they all require a dedicated machine to log the data, and some really hard work to make them operate properly over a network (why would I possibly want a 1-wire data transmission solution, or even phone-line communication when I've got 802.11 right here?)

    Have I simply missed the magic google search that has the toaster I'm looking for?

  14. how about ... Environment Canada? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Oh, I don't know... how about Environment Canada? You know, the place the weather network and every other forecasting service in the country gets their data...

    weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca

  15. Re:That's great for the US by girouette · · Score: 3, Informative

    The Meteorological Service of Canada has a web page at:
    http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/canada_e.html . The going was a little rough there for a while (we don't have the resources of the big media outlets to make it look pretty) but it is getting better all the time. It is also the place where the information is guaranteed to be up to date.

    Watch out about the images under "weather charts". They are still the large, old-style monochromatic images. (That will change, eventually, to smaller colour images).

  16. Lorenz Equations by Stranger4U · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I wonder what relationship (if any) exists between current weather models and the ones created by Lorenz back in the '60s. Those simple equations can produce some very chaotic behavior, and were the influence for the infamous "butterfly effect."

    1. Re:Lorenz Equations by Stranger4U · · Score: 4, Informative

      Actually, Lorenz's first paper on the subject "Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow" was motivated by computer simulations he ran using a set of three highly coupled, non-linear differential equations that represented a simple weather model. The solutions to those equations will yield the very standard butterfly-wing graph, as well as exhibit sensitive dependence. It was on the basis of this model that Lorenz several years later coined the famous "butterfly effect" term. So, it was initially a weather model, and that's what my post referred to.

  17. Re:Something is wrong by cduffy · · Score: 2, Funny

    Ahh, but consider: 74 degrees west is the same as 286 degrees east. Thus, NYC is obviously much further east than it is west. :P

  18. This is silly. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting
    "It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill."

    I hate to cast a damp towel on this, but personally, I find this is to be silly self-promotional drivel. What Weather forecasters won't tell you is that anything beyond a 3-5 day forecast is just a guess. Their accuracy rates beyond this period go down below 50%; which means that flipping a coin is more accurate. What's more, there have been little changes in improving this accuracy over the past 30-40 years. Most of the improvments have been in the under 5 day forecast. This is despite a great addition in technology (like satellites and computers).

    Here's one study which shows this: http://www.nwas.org/ej/rose/verify.htm

    There are others. This has been known for decades, but is generally kept quiet.

    So the next time you see a Weather report on the news telling how it's going to be 3+ days out, mostly it's just a guess.

    You are better off saving your CPU cycles for something more valuable, like Primenet (www.mersenne.org), IMHO.

    1. Re:This is silly. by azaris · · Score: 4, Informative

      "It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill."

      I hate to cast a damp towel on this, but personally, I find this is to be silly self-promotional drivel. What Weather forecasters won't tell you is that anything beyond a 3-5 day forecast is just a guess.

      So what? There are a lot of fields in science where most of our knowledge is about making accurate guesses and then seeing how well they fit the reality. It's not just about weather, the same tools can then be used on other complicated dynamic systems.

      Their accuracy rates beyond this period go down below 50%; which means that flipping a coin is more accurate.

      Really? I'd hardly call predicting the weather a simple case of true-or-false. Otherwise they could simply always give the exact opposite result that the complicated computer simulation gives and arrive at over 50% accuracy.

      Though there are some places (like Ireland, I've heard tell) where simply predicting rain every day will be correct 80% of the time.

      You are better off saving your CPU cycles for something more valuable, like Primenet (www.mersenne.org), IMHO.

      Computer scientists and their everlasting silly infatuation with primes... There are other important research areas, you know.

  19. Lookit by UtilityFog · · Score: 3, Insightful

    One of the best pattern-detection and analysis systems out there is still the human visual cortex -- watch the radar for your area consistently and you'll soon start getting a feeling for what is going to happen next. Wunderground's regional is about the right size.

  20. Quasi-geostrophic/Semi-geostrophic Theory et al by thedogcow · · Score: 2, Funny

    Forecasting the weather is all about the quasi-geostrophic theory (or semi-geostrophic theory if you're in graduate school).
    QG Theory tells us were there will be differential vorticity advection through a layer or differential temperature advection through a layer (dT/dz increases with height) there will be height falls and omega (vertical advection term) will be negative thus rising motion.

    So next time you feel like insulting your local meteorologist and state its a job where they are paid to be wrong, remember if you can find out where cyclonic vorticity advection increasing with height is located and what exactly the laplacian of that will tell you regarding as the impetus for change in the troposphere.

    --
    Yes! I listen to NYC Speedcore and do math at 3AM. I suggest you try it too.
  21. Twain on Weather by handy_vandal · · Score: 2, Funny

    "If you don't like the weather in New England, just wait five minutes."

    - Mark Twain

    --
    -kgj
  22. Re:The Fraud is finally exposed... by Enteebee · · Score: 2, Funny

    I'm not so sure. Suppose your "75 and Sunny for the next 72 weeks" forecast is interrupted by a "78 and Sunny"? People would call for your resignation I'm sure. Here in Buffalo, you could forecast "Sun and clouds, between 25-75 degrees in the morning, with a 47.3% chance of a rogue snow squall by 3PM. Possibility of thunderstorms this evening, maybe some clearing towards dawn." People would praise your accuracy =)

  23. Re:On this note, but something completely differen by RevMike · · Score: 4, Informative

    How about an 802.11 weather station?

    I'm just looking for something that sits outside my house, collects weather data and other such simple stuff, and relays that data back to a server to build a web page with or whatever.

    I run a Davis VantagePro Weather station. It relays data from a sensor cluster up on my roof to a console in my computer room via 900MHz radio. Then Davis' WeatherLink software submists it to weatherunderground and to my own website.

  24. What about orange sky at 11:00 AM? by Skim123 · · Score: 4, Informative

    Here's a picture from my street at 11:00 AM from back in late October. Orangish-brownish, although I think this had more to do with the San Diego wildfires burning 10 miles away moreso than weather fronts. ;-)

    --

    I could not justify my existence if I were a turkey farmer. Would I terminate myself? Undoubtably, yes.

  25. Confused by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Slashdot makes no sense whatsoever. People are always bringing up beowulf clusters when they don't apply. Now we have a topic where they are used all over the place, and no mention.

  26. You know what they say about... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    weathermen and economists. They can have long successful careers without ever being right.

  27. Huh? by drix · · Score: 2, Funny

    solvable with high level math and some acquired skill.

    Solvable? I don't know what high level math you've been smoking, but in my math classes, a problem is solvable when it can, you know, be solved. So kindly tell me what the weather will be in Raleigh, North Carolina on September 16, 2028, and I will stop implying that you're a buffoon. Probably a smarmy one, at that, if you're like all those goddamn weathermen on TV.

    --

    I think there is a world market for maybe five personal web logs.
  28. Here a recipe for a cheap weather station. by smartin · · Score: 4, Informative
    1. One Wire Weather station from AAG.
    2. Excellent free software to run it.
    3. gnuplot to plot the results.
    4. Post the information to The Weather Underground
    --
    The difference between Canada and the USA is that in Canada healthcare is a right and gun ownership is a privilege.
    1. Re:Here a recipe for a cheap weather station. by citking · · Score: 3, Informative
      Weather Underground is an amazing site, full of historical information, severe weather reports, and scientific explanations of the forecast. If you are a regular visitor to the site, you'll notice that the people behind the site are always updating and tweaking things to work better and to provide more features. For $5/year you get the ad-free version (or just grab Firebird if you are stingy) along with unlimited radar access and other goodies.

      I've begun using their site over weather.com because the radars on The Weather Channel's site are not updated as often as Weather Underground's, and their site seems to be completely built around advertising, making it hard to find severe weather information and damage reports.

      One last thing I like about Weather Underground is its speed. Radars load quickly, my favorites are stored easily, and (at least for subscribers) the layout is impeccable, utilizing a Google-like whitespace rather than cramming sensory overload everywhere.

      Kudos to the team at Weather Underground!

      --
      "This food is problematic."
  29. Doppler Radar by supertbone · · Score: 2, Funny

    Any one know how to build a dopler radar?

  30. Very True by waldoj · · Score: 2, Interesting

    When hiking the Appalachian Trail, knowing what the weather would be like for at least the next 12 hours or so was as easy and unconscious as knowing how I felt and how I would be feeling in the near future.

    Now that I'm off the trail, that skill is all but gone, unfortunately. It just takes a few days out of doors, though, and I start to pick it up again.

    -Waldo Jaquith

  31. The low tech wind gauge, very reliable. by Bob+Bitchen · · Score: 4, Funny

    wind sock

    --
    http://tinyurl.com/3t236
  32. Long Term Forecasting by sjbrown · · Score: 4, Informative
    Here are some links for the Earth Simulator -- an attempt to model the entirety of the planet's weather systems.


    Official Site

    Short Blurb from Time Magazine


    Descriptive Article (with pictures)

    Details Regarding its Supercomputer Status

  33. Re:The Fraud is finally exposed... by Shadwell · · Score: 3, Funny

    You could have at least credited Lewis Black with this one.

    "So what's the weather like today John?"

    "Uh...nice. Back to you."

  34. APRS: Also a Mobile Weather Data network by ivi · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I didn't notice any posts on APRS, the Amateur Radio based position reporting system, which has been used for years to connect & exchange data between mobile, fixed & Internet based sites, including weather data.

    The advantage of APRS, even for unlicensed receive-only users, is reception range that by far exceeds that of Wireless Networks (other than, say, 1-way satellite-based Internet connections).

    APRS data flows both over VHF/UHF repeaters and from one (RF-based & licensed, ie transmit-capable) APRS station to another.

    An APRS shareware (from the UK) that
    handles weather data - as well as messages
    & position data - is here:

    http://www.UI-View.com

    There is an excellent introductory site & White Paper on APRS here:

    http://vk6.aprs.net.au

    You can grab the white paper from here:

    http://vk6.aprs.net.au/ukaprswp.pdf

    The APRS creator's intro, et al. is here:

    http://web.usna.navy.mil/~bruninga/aprs.html

    Now that an Amateur Radio license is easier
    than ever to get, we should all have one (&
    some RF-based voice comms going as we surf,
    ie the way that doesn't eat into our 'net
    bandwidth, ie via Ham Radio...

    with an APRS-connected weather station on
    the side, and - when we're mobile (on land,
    in the air or on sea - a GPS connected,
    so we can be tracked/contacted & even found
    in the unlikely even that we get lost. ;-)

    Oh, and the speech-enabled Linux-based
    GPS-driven, "moving-map" program from Austria - GpsDrive - will help preclude our getting lost
    in the first place. (AFAIK, it's not APRS-
    enabled... yet, but it lets [WiFi-connected]
    near neighbors see each other's positions,
    I understand).

  35. Weather in Australia by Foddrick · · Score: 2, Interesting

    For those of us in Australia, the Bureau Of Meteorology have an excellent site, with radar, rainfall, river conditions, forecasts and whole lot of useful weather information.

  36. Close, but no cigar by Jerry · · Score: 4, Interesting
    As Dr Lorenz demonstrated in 1963, long range weather forecasting to any degree of accuracy is doomed to failure, even using several different mathematical models. Even accurate predictions no farther out than 5 days are limited to wind directions, barometric pressures, and the high and low temperatures. Precipitation, like thunderstorms, is 'predicted' in terms of percent probability that your area will get rained on, but even 0% or 100% predictions have often failed. Five years ago, on Oct 14th, none of the 14 inches of heavy wet snow we received was predicted. It downed over 50,000 trees in the city. Our award winning meteorologist spends about half of each broadcast, following a weather event, apologizing for mis-forecasting the previous day's weather. As Dr. Lorenz pointed out, the various runs of the model 'look similar' but that's not the same as a prediction, nor proof that the weather will even obey the model, regardless of what the model says.


    Weather prediction is a standing joke. You are use to it. I am used to it. That's about best that can be done, despite all the high powered computers, mathematical models and and their theories. That's the nature of Chaos. Even when a thunderstorm is raging in the next county and heading in your direction there is no model that will predict if and when it will arrive. The 'meteorologists' at most TV stations use composite radar to 'predict' where storms are heading and when they will get there, and they make their predictions only minutes before hand, not hours or days, weeks or months ahead. I find that I can do exactly the same for the Lincoln area, with exactly the same accuracy, using the Omaha composite radar at www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.koax.shtml


    The best predictor for bad weather on the NOAA website I gave is the one-hour rain loop. But even when it shows a steadily advancing area of wetness, the "Great Wall of Lincoln" has unpredictable effects in diverting or suppressing rainfall. Ditto for snow and tornadoes.


    The really arrogant folks are those who use models to predict global weather 50 years from now, even when they limit their 'predictions' to general high temperature 'averages' for regions like North America or Africa. Such dire 'Global Warming' predictions are fueled not by valid math models, because none exist, but by their political agenda. Those kinds of 'predictions' can only be classed as flagrant propaganda, and people willing to fabricate 'scientific' evidence for their political agendas scare me, just as much as folks who pass laws destroying my Constitutional Rights, while claiming to protect those freedoms from the actions of terrorists. They are from the same mold.


    Here is a nice java applet demonstrating the Lorenz Attractor.
    http://www.exploratorium.edu/complexit y/java/loren z.html

    --

    Running with Linux for over 20 years!

    1. Re:Close, but no cigar by ctwxman · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You're right that our accuracy goes down as we go farther into the future, but even having a small amount of additional insight into wind directions, barometric pressures, and the high and low temperatures is incredibly valuable. People live the weather in realtime. The fact that it was nice yesterday makes little or no difference if it's rotten today. But, some businesses and industries greatly benefit from knowing how and when to order and plan based on the coming weather. I actually present an 8 day forecast. I have gone on the air to explain what it does and doesn't do (and it doesn't do a lot). It has been fairly successful in showing temperature trends and less successful at everything else. But, knowing a cold snap will last... or not... has great value.

  37. I can see it now by lone_marauder · · Score: 2, Funny

    There are programs available to allow you to run your own model, specifying the domain, grid spacing, time interval, etc.

    I have to admit, that is WAY cooler than creating a tornado in SimCity. The only way these tools could possibly come to good use among the slashdot crowd is in the area of theoretical knowledge relating to city-destroying superstorms.

    --
    who are those slashdot people? they swept over like Mongol-Tartars.