Linus on SCO, and the Desktop Being 10 Years Away
An anonymous reader writes "In this interview from last week's Linux.conf.au in Australia, Linus Torvalds talks about how the SCO lawsuit 'riled' him and led him to spend a week writing an application to archive his email, and how he think Linux will take 5 to 10 years to become mainstream on the desktop."
Linux on the desktop is a long long way off from being as easy to use for beginners as windows is. I think we need to just grit our teeth, clench our buttocks, swallow our pride and set out to emulate windows's simplicity.
I am one of many. My idea is not unique, nor do I expect my voice alone to sway you. I speak in a chorus of opinion.
It was worth it to him. Me, I use Zoe; but then I also use an operating system someone else wrote. I'm not going to gainsay what Linus does with his time - I don't have an entire industry built around what I decided to do as a hobby.
I've never seen a lawsuit up this close and personal before
This is what the "lucky" 300 must also be thinking. I don't think they will be spending their time writing an e-mail indexing program.
Linus is the only person I've ever heard of taking a lawsuit as an opportunity to write some new code. The world needs more Linuses!!!
Lack of games. The odd FPS game crops up, but dual booting isnt an option for mot point and click users.
I've been linux as my primary desktop for 2 years. Its been working great for me. I write my school papers with abiword, my presentations with open office impress and do all my coding with vim. gnome hardly ever crashes on me and when it does i can typically do one of two things: either login remotely and restart X or cntrl+alt+backspace. Then i can file a bug report and in most cases the problem is solved. Linux just requires patience and an understanding of what and how you plan to use a tool. I think what linus means is it won't be ready for a generic user for a little while longer...
Not at all. Basically, he thinks that in 2004 Linux will really take on in the desktop-market. But that wouldn't mean that Linux would be mainstream in the desktop-market. Let's assume that number of Linux-users doubles in 2004, and that's due to increase in desktop-use. That would give Linx a market-share of around 5%. If that happened, 2004 would be the "year of the desktop" for Linux, but being mainstream would still be several years in the future.
Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
I think the key to the desktop is preloaded machines that can flawlessly interoperate with the existing Windows monopoly. If it would include the ability to run MS Office for instance (free CrossoverOffice included, or a better Wine), that would be good. That way, it would run most things that Windows can, and then some more.
Another interoperability issue would be internet-connection. The various ISPs should support Linux as well.
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Linux cannot become another Microsoft. Microsoft is about monopoly prices, lock-in, proprietary technologies etc. etc. None of those are possible with Linux. If Linux gained 100% market-share, there would still be several distros competing (and several free versions of Linux), the core-systems would be open and free, so moving between different vendors would be easy. And you could fork your own version from existing distros (for example Red Hat ==> Mandrake, Gentoo ==> Zynot)
You mentioned Red Hat trying to make a profit. How would that affect Linux? Easy: Red Hat would have even more money to spend improving Linux.
Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
for some people 'archive' doesn't mean 'zip up into a binary format nothing else understands'
There are places where the networks are not touching,and there are places where they are-Boeing's Lori Gunter
Didn't Linus say that he pretty much thought it would be a battle between Windows and Linux in 2005 and MacOS wouldn't be around ?
Looks like he was pretty far off. Then again Jobs did pull out a lot of white rabbits these last couple of years. I'm certainly not going back to Linux on the desktop any time soon. Not saying it isn't usable - au contraire - I'd rather use it than Windows because of my needs, but OS X just does everything so much better as long as you have enough juice for it.
I am not saying that SunOS or IRIX are superior, just that the upgrades come at a more manageable pace, and tend not to break our code base when upgrading compilers. I think the reason Linus thinks five to ten years before really conquering the desktop is based on two things. By then LINUX should have slowed down in its development and will be a beast you can run two to three years before upgrading. Secondly, Windows will probably sink under the weight of it is haphazard code base, which is guided not by what is best for users and cleanest in design, but what makes sense commercially to support and lock-in their other products in as covert way as possible to keep from running afoul of the antitrust laws.
Looking forward to the day though!
Letter To Iran
For me, the journey has been more like 20 years. I was running a desktop window system on a UNIX-like OS at home before there was such a thing as X (Smalltalk on LynxOS on a Tektronix Pegasus box).
I have to say that I think the folks who are all over the deficiencies of the Linux Desktop, and how we have to emulate the Windows/Mac/BeOS/Xbox/Sinclair/whatever desktop experience to have a usable desktop are mistaken. I think they underestimate the ability of users to adapt, and overestimate the degree to which familiar = better. For many years I had a PC or Mac sitting on my desktop next to a UNIX/X box. Now I have a Windows box and a Linux box at home. I have always found that I almost exclusively use the UNIX/X box. The monopoly (at best duopoly) is real, and most folks haven't had my experience. I think it's clear that they're going to, and I think it's going to be enlightening for them when they do.
I'm working hard to make the Linux desktop experience better for everyone. But it's pretty darn good now. So good that I finally threw away twm a couple of years ago. :-)
Let's enjoy the ride.
If one distro wins by simply being superior to everyone else, then I fail to see how that could be considered bad. And there would be nothing stopping you (or anyone else for that matter) from creating your own version of their distro (or creating one from scratch) and competing with them with your own version. It has happened several times in the past (like when Mandrake was created from Red Hat).
And having money DOES help developement. For example, Red Hat (or some other company) could hire full-time kernel-hackers that would have more time (and better equipment) at their disposal, instead of if they hacked only in their free time.
Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
I prefer to go the other way, whenever someone asks me to get them a pirated copy of Office, I encourage them to get OO.org instead, or at least try it for a week, and if they need more features, come back and see me.
Only then do I tell them that pirating is illegal and I refuse to partici *yawn* sorry...? er.. oh yeah participate in that sort of thing.
Do not meddle in the affairs of geeks for they are subtle and quick to anger
What is missing is applications (especially games) and to a lesser extent drivers.
The 3d-modelling niche is a very good example on how fast Linux can take over a market when the apps are there.
In the next years, expect other niches to go to Linux, the next being non-US government desktops. When Munich migrates and ports their apps, it gets easier, cheaper and faster for other cities with similar application-needs to follow.
The only problem is that such migrations take a lot of time, that's why it is taking a decade (and it already started).
Yes, he has only given us the best, most stable, FREE OS in the world. My God!
Well, that's all good and well, but I think declaring him to be your God* is a bit much.
(*Actually, to parody a saying about Larry Ellison, the difference between God and Linus Torvalds is that Linus doesn't think he's god..)
It looks like you're trolling, but...
1- not required
2- Works fine for UT2003, ArmyOps, Savage, RTCW, etc...
Nope, not at all. I see where you're coming from, but if that was the case, it'd already have happened -- Linux is a multi-billion dollar industry right now.
Any enhancements Red Hat makes (and distributes) to the kernel, glibc, gcc, GNOME etc. all have to be under the GPL. Then any other disto vendors can pick them up. Seeing as RH are the main force behind gcc and glibc at the moment, there's the proof -- it's not like RH are on GCC 3.3 while all other distros have to suffer with 2.95.3.
Competitive edges will come with service and support. It's virtually impossible, and pointless from a competitive standpoint, to try and "hog" certain aspects of Linux development. If a company wants right control over a free x86 UNIXalike, they'll go with FreeBSD[1].
-- A smoking AC
[1]Whenever people talk about Microsoft adopting Linux at some point and releasing "Microsoft Linux", I laugh. They'll go with FreeBSD, absolutely no doubt about it. FreeBSD can run most native Linux and open source apps, and MS can exert more control. There'll be no Microsoft Linux. Just "Microsoft UNIX" (or whatever) based on FreeBSD.
Longhorn won't be out till 2005 if I'm correct and many users are very insatisfied with Windows XP, from Sobig/Blaster outbreaks dragging down productivity levels to random annoyances like messenger popups and a full suite of internet blockers/virus stoppers/software firewalls needed to surf the web.
All laymen users I know will say this- they know about the security, and they will say it's messed up, but it hasn't effected their productivity at all.
Windows XP SP2 due out later this year will fix the popups/virus/firewall problems. With Windows Update v5, users can keep their machine up to date without effort.
The people who do know that there are alternatives out there recognize that they will gain speed and pass Windows someday, but aren't willing to change until durastic changes take place in ease of use. When mentioning Linux most think it's CLI, and that's a downgrade.
I've done more than my share of teaching total newbies how to use Windows. There's nothing intrinsically logical or sensible about the Windows desktop (95, 2K, XP), Windows' naming schemes, etc. It's extraordinarily difficult for an adult newbie to pick up. -- We tend to think of Windows as "easier-to-use" simply, I think, because of familiarity. Ditto with the Mac interface -- it's easy to use once you've learned how to use it. Come to Mac from a pure Windows or pure newbie background and there's still a learning curve.
Frankly, I don't think there will ever be a desktop that is "simple to use" from a newbie standpoint (at least until the computers can engage in an intelligent dialogue with the user and actually figure out what the user wants to do).
Consequently, I don't think any great re-imaging of the Linux (or any other) desktop is particularly required. Rather, I think the greater value will be in continuing to support a diversity of desktops with some focusing on new-user needs as much as others focus on the needs of sophisticated users.
After wading through four levels of menus on a default KDE install, I wish I had the skills to do some interface design myself. Grin.
"When I grow up, I'll be stable."
Like what? GPL makes it really hard to abuse Linux (or more presicely, users of Linux). Like I said, I just can't see Linux turning in to another Microsoft. Yes, Linux could achieve complete market-dominance some time in the future. But the very nature of Linux makes it EXTREMELY difficult to abuse that dominance.
Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
I think the point that you are missing is that no matter how good a distro gets it's still open source. Anyone can fork it. Anyone can use those features in thier distro if they were so inclined. A monopoly is not possible because the 'trade secrets' are not secrets at all.
Time makes more converts than reason
Microsoft has dominated the desktop for over a decade. Unless something drastic and unexpected happens, it will take a minimum of five years from now for it to lose dominance. Having said that, I do think that 2004 is a watershed year for Linux and for Microsoft. Years from now, we will look back and identify 2004 as the year where the tides bagan to change.
Why do I feel this way? Very few companies in very few industries ever achieve the dominance that Microsoft has in the computing industry. Competition always keeps the underdogs going for the golden ring, and profits like Microsoft enjoys have other companies salivating. History shows us that very few companies can hold onto such an amazing lead over the competition.
Linux and other "free" operating systems hold a unique advantage over Microsoft's offerings. They are free. Microsoft can not afford to compete on price alone. Every day that goes by, the gap between Microsoft's offerings and Linux's offerings narrows the gap in quality. With Novell and IBM in the fray, that gap is sure to close even further. At some point, Linux's offerings will become the most logical choice for everyone. Microsoft's grip will sliip and they will slide. It won't be fast, they will lose by percentage points.
At least this is what I hope. I have no crysal ball. They have quite a war chest and they have a lot of lawyers. Maybe one of these hair-brained lawsuits from the likes of SCO will work. I don't know, and I sure hope not.
Linus is probably right but I hope that it is 5 years and not 10.
"I'd love to have an easy to use system that I could handle without much difficulty while still having the power of Unix at hand should I want it.
This is not Linux."
But it IS Linux. I know this will come as a shock to Apple fans, but OS X isn't the be all end all of Unix desktops. I like many Linux users don't want a pc equiv of OS X. OS X does many things right, but it also does a lot wrong. OS X for x86 would be a real threat to Microsoft and would no doubt get more users using a semi-Unix but it's not what I'm looking for.
The only thing missing from Mandrake, Red Hat etc is real support from software and hardware makers. Documented hardware IS truly plug and play. Getting software installed/uninstalled IS moron proof provided that its packaged correctly. Like you said installation is easy as pie.
Imagine a distro running the 2.6 kernel with full oem hardware support, KDE 3.2, and the support of all the big software ISV's. At this point you have an OS that is easily as good as OS X and XP. So your right that we are indeed waiting, but not for OS X to come to the PC. We are in fact just waiting for Hardware and Software OEM's to fully support Linux. Maybe that won't ever happen, but if it does then you can rest assured that there will be no reason to pine for OS X on the PC.
The way I see it you have 3 options. 1) Buy an expensive Mac, thus putting yourself under the thumb of Apple and in a situation which is NOT an improvement over running XP. 2) Wait for OS X to come to the PC. 3) Wait for hardware and software makers to get off their asses and finally support Linux. It has been a long road, but I'm sticking with number 3. Number 1 is not and never will be an appealing option to me and most others.
If you wanna get rich, you know that payback is a bitch
So what if he literally manages to use "literally" twice on the same line ;) .
It would be simple.
Put all the apps that they would use for work in a folder on their desktop.
Also, have all those apps open when they first log in.
When they log out, save all the information about those apps so they will appear EXACTLY THE SAME when the user logs in again.
Then, have the items that the user is ALLOWED to change in a different folder. Like backgrounds and themes and sounds and junk like that.
Everything else is locked down.
The user info is saved to a server so any machine that the user logs into will have the exact same desktop as the last machine.
This is VERY hard with Windows (unless you're running a Citrix desktop). But it should be very easy with Linux (all apps served from the servers).
I important part is getting them connected to the apps they need, seemlessly and reliably. Every time, every machine.
All the end user should NEED to know about the computer is how to turn it on and where the blinken lights are that show that it IS turned on.
Everything else should be covered by training on the applications that the company uses.
People are starting to blame Microsoft for their failures.
Definitely - people seem to be taking notice that Windows is not the complete package they are told it is when they are sold the computer. A good example is the amount of Critical Updates people have to download when they have a brand new computer just to make sure it isn't vulnerable. I had to do this for my parent's new computer with XP Home - it was no fun trying to download 16Mb of updates on a 56kbps connection.
I think it will be a massive step forward to get the average home user (whatever that is!) to actually know there is an alternative to Windows and it's not just for 'hackers and programmers'.
I don't. The GUI design is at best inconsistant - they may be trying to play catch up now - but a lot of what is happening is based on behaviour that was thrown together years ago and can't / won't be fixed. I don't actually believe they test usability with their focus groups - they probably concentrate on what eye-candy looks best.
A perfect example of how non-user friendly Windows is the way your keyboard focus gets stolen. I touch type - I don't spend a lot of time looking at the screen - i end up get very, very irritated because some window/dialog has decided to open and steal the keyboard focus - at best, my keystrokes end up in a black hole, at worst - they're invoking some action that I don't want to do.
The Amiga got this right 15 years ago - the programmer guidelines stated that you don't steal focus - Microsoft would do well to re-think a lot of their GUI guidelines (or at least follow their existing ones - they tend not to do that for their own apps anyways).
I actually belive that that is an excellent question, and I'll be happy to provide the answer:
Because 90% of all computer users are used to Windows
(The rest of the following rant is essentially a repost, so I apologize if you have already read it.)
You can feel that it shouldn't be like that, and you can make hundreds of snide and clever remarks to the effect that Windows users are too stupid to recognize their own best interests, but you can't change the facts: at least 90% of the people who are using a computer today are using Windows.
It is not every day that a court of law makes an official market survey and releases it freely on the net, in line with the finest traditions of the Open Source movement. Yet it seems that the very people who really believe the most in the benefits of free and open information, are remarkably reluctant to use it when it's available. Think what you will in private, but please please listen to judge Jackson: if Linux is going to have any impact at all in the desktop market, it is Windows users that will have to be converted.
There are a number of good reasons to make the switch to Open Source --- open file formats, control over future license costs, etc., etc. --- but if it means that you have to spend six months cursing all the little things that are different, so that you can't focus on what you're supposed to be doing because you have to relearn all your automatic reflexes, how many people will decide that it's worth the effort?
A lawyer might perhaps consider switching from MS Word to StarOffice simply to make sure that all the files that he creates today can be opened and read on another computer ten years from now, when the case has finally reached the Supreme Court or whatever. But how may chargeable hours is he prepared to let it cost him in the first six months?
It somehow seems that a lot of the people who develop Open Source applications take a special pride in inventing amusing little pitfalls for the Windows user who might be prepared to switch camps. In StarOffice, the keyboard combination to insert a non-breaking space is "Ctrl-Space", rather than Word's "Ctrl-Shift-Space". Please, somebody, why? Of course this is something that one can relearn if one has to, but what's the point of it? The first time a would-be convert, who has been using non-breaking spaces in Word, tries to insert one in a text in StarOffice, it won't work. Whether he decides that non-breaking spaces are not available and that the product does not fulfill his needs, or interrupts what he was originally trying to achieve and starts exploring the help system to find out what it is that he has to do, he will not feel more favorably disposed towards Open Source programs for having tried one. And so unnecessarily.
I could recite any number of examples: if you type "Ctrl-A Ctrl-Return" to mark all posts in a newsgroup as read, Mozilla will instead choose to open a couple of hundred windows (one for each post in the newsgroup), which will cause the system to freeze, so that it has to be rebooted. Excellent marketing ploy.
To change some settings in Mozilla you should of course look under "Edit" in the menu system, and not under "Tools" like in all other programs in the Windows world. Brilliant. How could you possibly fail when you make it so convenient for the user?
And please, don't come and say "RTFM" now. Why the **** should someone who has been using a computer for years have to consult the FM (provided there actually is one, of course, but that's a separate issue in its own right) to perform a so completely trivial standard task as the ones mentioned here?
And please don't come and say "but you can change that if you spend a couple of days learning how to reconfigure the program from the bottom up" either. Pe
Christian Engström, Former Member of the European Parliament 2009-2014 for The Pirate Party, Sweden
Think about what would happen if you gave the average desktop user, not technical user now but simply someone who wants to use a word processor, send and receive email and browse the web, a computer with a blank hard drive and a windows OS cd. If windows did not come pre-installed would it be the desktop of choice for average users?
I have friends and relatives who would never have used Linux if not for someone to help them through the install process but after setting up the basics they find it every bit as easy to use as a Windows OS. I honestly believe that if Linux pre-instralls were as available as Windows, we would see a much higher rate of adoption on the desktop.
The Matrix is real... but I'm only visiting!
Users need a central, glossy penguin logo website, where approved hardware (pc's motherboards, video cards, sound cards, etc) are listed and unapproved hardware is blacklisted (until drivers are ready). Kind of a Consumer Reports version of Linux supported hardware, where to be listed the hardware has to be fully supported with drivers and proven to install without any bullshit.
By this I mean a very high standard of compatibility. Naturally, people are going to install whatever and that's fine, but to qualify for the hardware logo website, standards of ease have to be met fully.
Device approval needs to be in a heirarchial format, starting with the motherboard. For example, Radeon xxx isn't approved by itself, but Radeon xxx is approved for install into an Asus xxx motherboard, with Kingston xxx memory, with a Creative xxx soundcard, etc.
Yes, such a site would approve a very narrow set of compatible hardware, but that's ok, the idea would be to give a simple place for newbie users who don't want to hassle it to go to choose products that everyone knows will work without a fight.
Most of us (of course) would ignore it and have fun hacking away at insane hardware combinations, because we like that, but if we're talking about the general user population, they couldn't care less which motherboard or soundcard or whatever they have, they just want it to work without the hassle.
Then, get hardware review sites like tomshardware and anandtech to find combinations that work really well together, and to promote the site. Try to get consumer reports to feature it in an article. Then it's up to the hardware makers to support maybe not all of the stuff they make, but at least some of it.
Frankly all the possible combinations that ACLs provide only serve to add unneeded complexity to the matter. The judicious use of groups and unix permissions, which, IMO are much simpler to grok that the ACLs, results in a system that is easier for the administator to understand. And thus the system is more likely to be correctly configured, with proper security. Yeah ACLs are "more powerful", and if you want them Linux will support them (in ext3 and jfs or xfs iirc). It's better to have "simple" permissions done correctly, than to have your "fine grained ACLs" configured wrong. It's really an application of KISS and the 80/20 rule. Frankly, I'm not entirely convinced that ACLs really provide anything that groups can't. ACL's make the easy moderately difficult, and the difficult moderately difficult. Where as standard unix permissions and groups make the easy easy, and the difficult difficult. Yeah, you can add all the fine grained stuff you want, but the need for that is the exception rather than the rule. So why compliate the simple stuff, just to make the diffcult stuff only moderately easier?
----- Question authority, but not ours. Hate the man, but we're not him.
I mean it's going to take, literally five to 10 years before "normal users" start seeing Linux desktop, but in the technical space it's doing pretty well, especially in companies that can support it already. Five or ten years? I L.T. feels this is the time frame, I'm worried.
"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck
> I say it's infinitelky superior to do the Linux desktop the good way, the right way, and emphatically *not* the Windows way right from the start! Sure, the amount people have to learn will be more at first. but then it will be over.
:-(" and go back to Windows without looking back. Your definition of "the right way" is someone else's definition of "change for its own sake".
You've missed his point - the more "more to learn" there is, the earlier the user will indeed say "I'm done with this
Enough people do this and yes, it *will* be over, but not in the way you've expected.
Can someone explain to me why we need to get linux running on every desktop in the world exactly??
.doc files, for instance, are not easily readable on non-MS products. MS has significant incentive to deliberately attempt to introduce incompatibility.
.doc files. Since Microsoft is The Institution and tries to isolate itself from other efforts, hackers frequently have to put up with Microsoft's products, even if they do not want to use them.
To say it step-by-step:
1) Hackers like Linux more than Windows. It's a nice, powerful OS.
2) Microsoft sells Windows. It wants people to buy copies of Windows. One major weapon in its arsenal is compatibility --
3) Hackers are not islands. They must interact with other people. Sometimes this means getting DSL service. Sometimes this means having to use a computer specified by an employer. Sometimes this means being able to read
4) Hackers, frusterated with Microsoft, happily work on Linux and other Microsoft-alternative efforts.
Linux having a 30% market share or more would have major benefits (well, and probably drawbacks as well):
* Hardware compatibility. Someone has to write drivers and test and support hardware. It's expensive, so usually this sort of thing is subsidized by lots of people. If many non-hackers are using Linux, then hackers will get hardware support subsidized by non-hackers. This is a Good Thing for them.
* Games. There needs to be a lot of folks willing to buy a game before a company will port, test, and support it on Linux. It's expensive, so usually this sort of thing is subsidized by lots of people. If many non-hackers are using Linux, then hackers will get games subsidized by non-hackers. This is a Good Thing for them.
* Enabling People. Hackers are human too, and they feel good when they let people do something more. It's rather like the digital artist that introduces a conventional photographer to Photoshop. When the photographer's eyes light up and he realizes what he can do, and his ability to produce value increases, the artist feels good, and has helped society. Linux has a number of capabilities that Windows does not, and introducing folks to them would help society.
* DRM. Lots of hackers are not thrilled with the concept of DRM. Establishing a less monopolistic platform rapidly makes it much more difficult for anyone to get everyone using DRM.
* Environment. I'd love to never have to use a Windows box again. However, I run into them. The more people using Linux, the more folks paying people to work on and develop things for Linux, and the less one has to support Windows machines.
* Elimination of proprietary protocols and formats. Only one person directly wins if a proprietary protocol or format is in place -- the vendor of the software using it. Consumers lose, and competitors lose. Linux, having a large collection of entrenched open source and open specification software packages, has a good amount of inertia to not having closed formats.
Now, I grant that there will probably be drawbacks to a dominant Linux. Whatever the dominant easy-to-use distro is, it will likely have security failings, may force people to use a GUI to configure things, and may have a vendor doing all kinds of licensing deals for exclusives (like Microsoft's AOL icon on the desktop). Trojans and viruses will likely be more common for Linux. Politics will become more involved with Linux, just as it did with the Internet (imagine the same thing happening to the FSF that did with ICANN -- being taken over by less-than-nice corporate interests. Ick.) There will be many packages ported, and some of the existing Linux software that appeals to hackers -- small, CLI programs that can easily be combined -- will lose relevance as folks use ported, large, potentially buggy software packages like MS Office. There will probably be more strict backwards compatibility constraints, and cruft will more easily bu
May we never see th
Here's what I see being the real show-stoppers for desktop Linux adaptation:
1. Reliance on the CLI: Yes, in a perfect world, everyone would be comfortable with using the CLI to accomplish tasks from installing a driver to reading email to whatever. REALITY, however, is different. The vast majority of Win32 and MacOS users NEVER touch the CLI. No one wants to be bothered with it. The Linux elite's insistance that everything be centered around CLI apps and whatnot is going to prevent Linux uptake. Yes, we should all learn it before diving into Linux, but think about it this way; Apple, with it's BSD powered OSX, does NOT require it's users to know a damned thing about the command line in order to use their OS. It simply works well without it. Of course, power users can get at it and run as many shell scripts as they wish to, but those that don't know about command line stuff are not forced to learn it.
2. Installing new hardware in your PC should not be harder than plugging it in and installing a driver. In all of the years I've been using Linux, I've rarely ever been able to simply install a new card and not have to install something other than a driver. There have been too many times where I have to fish out my install CD's or search the net for some obscure dependancy package, or worse, have the dep already installed, but the driver's installation script not detect it properly. I've pulled out my hair trying to get my little USB webcam (Cool-I-Cam Stylus 1000) to work with GPhoto/Gphoto2 only to give up after weeks of trying (it took less than 5 minutes to get it up and running under Windows 2000). My IOGear USB2 card STILL doesn't work with Linux (the driver is included with Win2000 SP4 and is also available as a tiny download from the IOGear site). Stuff like this annoys the hell out of me. Honestly, I shouldn't have to deal with it and neither should anyone trying to use Linux for the first time. Until hardware installation is fixed, desktop linux will never happen.
3. Apps. I cannot stress how important having GOOD applications is to the average user. Star/Open Office is good, I'll admit that and it's an excellent start in the direction that things should be heading. However, there's simply not enough applications of this caliber. There are no pro-quality audio applications, no Macromedia authoring apps, games are hard to come by IF they're ported to Linux, and nothing that's truely like EZ CD Creator or Nero for CD burning. Until commercial applications start coming over to Linux, we're not going to see many people moving to Linux.
Think of it this way; The Amiga is/was one of the greatest machines ever built and it had the BEST OS of it's day. It's lack of applications (and lack of marketing push) killed it's desktop uptake. In 1990, I knew more people that had inferior PC's than had Amigas and the sole reason was that the apps they needed were not available for the Amiga. Same for the Atari ST, Same for the BeBox. Apps drive adoption, not just the GUI.
4. Elitism. Linux elitism is rampant. If I ask a question in an IRC channel on how to do something in windows, I get a dozen good responses. If I ask a question in #linux on Efnet or a similar channel, I get a bunch of "did you read the man pages?" "RTFM", "Linux is obviously to difficult for you, go back to Windows" or similar responses. Oddly, I don't encounter the level of elitism when looking for help with any other flavor of unix or MacOS (The guys in #SGI/Efnet were particularly helpful when I had a problem reinstalling Irix on my Indy). The attitude that a lot of Linux users display towards newbies will turn off just about anyone to Linux. Kill the attitude, learn some manners, and lend a hand.
Now, before I get flamed, I must let you know that I AM well versed in Linux. I'm currently working as a Unix admin, overseeing a mission-critical, money making production server farm for a Fortune 1000 company. I make my living using Linux, but cannot see having my wife use it for her business (She's a mortgage broker)
Fifty watts per channel, baby cakes.