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Yellowstone Super-Eruption Threat Debunked
GennyCream writes "The Internet has been all a-buzz with tin-foil-hat geeks have been in a tizzy over supposed government coverups of a soon-to-come super eruption in Yellowstone (especially see The Shadow Confederacy, but also Rense.com, or BlackVault for entertaining examples). I found an article on ATSNN.com (the Above Top Secret News Network) that cut the paranoia with the proverbial knife and went straight to the source. Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."
Have ya ever seen that commercial where the park ranger is pouring all the Metamucil down the Old Faithful? This could have serious adverse effects on the entire caldera. I mean, you can only pinch the cheeks for so long. It's bound to blow soon.
Well, my father in law follows the geology of the Yellowstone basin fairly closely because of his job as a park Ranger up in Grand Teton (his dream retirement job). In all the conversations I have had with him, he has said nothing of this. To add to that, he lives just outside Jackson Wyoming (Cheny's undisclosed location interestingly enough or at least I've seen him around the Jackson area a number of times) and one would think he would be out of there had there been any dramatic increases in geologic activity indicative of an eruption or large scale animal deaths as alleged in these rumors.
Visit Jonesblog and say hello.
Thank god! I was worried there might be something important happening.
I have been pwned because my
Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now).
Of course they won't. If anything they'll take it as a confirmation of the big government conspiracy to cover it up! The scientists were obviously on the government's payroll... (as they probably are, of course).
There is certainly a chance of a super volcano going up from Yellowstone, and the timescale where that is likely is longer than all of human history. There's an interesting book called Yellowstone Farwell by Wyoming geologist Wanyne Sutherland and his wife Judy (selling well in Wyoming anyway...see at http://www.yelllowstonefarewll.com). I live in Wyoming and worry about terrorism at a greater level than volcanoes (and I recall a Time magazine essay saying that all Americans could do to alleviate their worry over terrorism was to move to Wyoming!).
Professor of Astronomy, Author of Spider Star & Star Dragon (Tor)
"The Internet has been all a-buzz with tin-foil-hat geeks have been in a tizzy over supposed government coverups of a soon-to-come super eruption in Yellowstone (especially see The Shadow Confederacy, but also Rense.com, or BlackVault for entertaining examples)."
You seem to have forgotten this gem.
I got your tin foil hat right here!
Sigs are for losers
From the article: Large numbers of dead fish were not found in Yellowstone Lake, or any other lake in Yellowstone.
<HATTER TYPE="mad">So where were they found then?</HATTER>Sorry to be vague, but wasn't there a documentary outlining some new information about the volcanic goings on around Yellowstone? I remember it, but it was a while ago...
Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles
You'd like us to think that, wouldn't you? But everyone knows that angles were an invention brought to us by the purple skinned cat-people around the same time they built the pyramids and invented the mass hallucination that is Sweden! Nice try, though.
"Cheny's undisclosed location interestingly enough or at least I've seen him around the Jackson area a number of times"
I suggest you wear your tinfoil hat. The government is gonna get you now.
Ben
Work Safe Porn
What I don't understand is why anyone who suggests something like the government covering up a disaster or questioning something like the moon landings is immediately ridiculed. There is precedent for such a thing, particularly in the case of near Earth asteroids. In an effort not to alarm the public and to prevent the media from distorting the facts, things are covered up while examined and studied. Stuff like this is plausible and questions need to be asked. If the events such as the seismic activity are still being studied, and nothing is being said to keep the story away from the media, certainly one interview with a member of the USGS isn't going to change things.
My point is this: why is it so bad to ask these questions? We're perfectly willing to believe conspiracies between SCO and Microsoft but we accept the government at face value on things such as this and ridicule the doubters? Why is this?
I'm not trying to start a flame war, but I'm genuinely curious why we take such negative attitudes toward questions such as whether the government doesn't yet want to inform the public over seismic concerns in the Yellowstone area. I'll probably get modded down, but I'd like to know.
I subcontract in the USGS CVO (Cascade volcano observatory).
There is no big eruption planned in the continental US (don't know about Alaska or Hawaii). Otherwise I'd know.
Dood, Yellostone doesn't exist.
It's just a coverup for a voodoo science plant / CIA Nazi bunker.
think about it...
If there's one thing you can count on, its that mad-hatters never let any facts get in their way.
Maybe I'm missing something, but what who has anything to gain by covering this up?? Where's the conspiracy? So Yellowstone might have a volcano in it. If you aren't sure, go look for yourself. It's still open. The reason nobody knows anything about it is that there's nothing to know about it. The article says that everything they moniter leads them to believe that nothing is wrong, and the reason they don't release any other information is because they don't moniter every possible aspect of the park. It's only a conspiracy when they're intentionally trying to keep information from you.
Small typo on that URL. Should be http://www.yelllowstonefarewell.com -- thanks.
Professor of Astronomy, Author of Spider Star & Star Dragon (Tor)
What near-Earth asteroids? I don't know if any near-earth asteroids. We know where you live.
There is a lots of information concerning the actual research being conducted.
Mod parent up. Damn straight. I posted on /. recently in response to a headline about an asteroid almost hitting earth.
And, by the way, I think we are actually looking for the term 'Super Caldera' here. But that's just nit-picking.
Bottom line? Far too many people (genius and (alternately), slashdotters) are willing to assume that because something hasn't happened during their frame of reference that it simply can't happen to them.
It is precisely this kind of hubris that has lead to so many of man's failures.
I pretty much hold with the crowd that predicts massive volcanic eruptions, shifting of plates, the erosion of entire mountain ranges, massive glaciation, massive floods...big canyons being carved in deserts, cities sinking under the ocean, deserts turning to forests, forests turning to desert and every single thing you can imagine.
The sad thing is that I only get to live a human life span and will miss most of it.
BTW, there is a hot spot under Yellowstone and big cinder cones and a lot of lave flows in Idaho. I think there is a better than average changes of some major event in a short geological time frame.
I think that it is because our mind-view of someone calling the government a major hoax is that of a prankster/crank. However, it seems perfectly legitimate to assume that SCO and MS behave the way they do because corporates have that view of devilish, scheming villains in our heads.
Or maybe, it is better put as, we've seen a lot of false alarms like these and ridiculing questions like these are our natural way to get better at evading those alarms. Nothing wrong, imho.
This sig is empty.
I will not believe anything these qualified scientists say until I here a Dr. of Quackology tell me it all safe on Coast to Coast AM. Until then I will believe this news is all a coverup to keep people from panicking. We all know the Gov't has a tiem machine and knows the truth!
Yes, this is what makes the thing so magnetically attractive to the wing nut crowd. It's true. Yellowstone is a super caldera. It will very likely erupt again. . . someday.
Maybe when the asteroid hits it. Of which there is also certainly a chance.
Simple, factual uncertainty wigs some people out more than anything else.
"My God! We're all going to die!"
Well yeah, Sparky. Get used to it. But on the whole the greatest risk you face over the next several years is your drive to work. That ought to scare you silly. Roll over in bed. See your sweetie lying there? You're more likely to die at his/her hand than by a volcanic eruption. Even if you live in Hawaii. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Dig a hole. Crawl in. Die in the cave in because you were afraid of shoddy workmanship by contractors (paid off by the government, no doubt) and did a much worse job yourself.
Either that or just lighten up, ferchristsake. Here, have a nice glass of cognac and a cigar to relax.
Hey, why are you running away?
Oh. Yeah. The government has told you that will kill you, nearly on the spot.
Ain't it funny how people chose to chose what they want to believe about what the government tells them? I can't figure it out.
KFG
One thing I have encountered is the bias, whereby someone is so in love with a theory that they are blind to the fair maden that comes along later. It's hard to let go of the comfortable setup you have built over the years, and when some fresh outsider comes along and tells you different, it gets the blood boiling.
I have encountered this with grizzled old prospectors who were positive they had found the next Sudbury or Ft. Knox, as well as 'cultured, educated' folks who have spent most of their time in the drawing room discussing theory. I have found numerous rich deposits, but due to economics, politics, or other obstacles, most shall remain ummined for now. In most cases, I dispensed with current trends and went back to the old stuff.
Too often, someone will arrive at a "conclusion" that might look good at the time, but prove to be very wrong later. So what? Someone has to get it wrong. But one has to be able to release that burning stick.
The Earth has many very serious events in its' past. We can expect more, and we have truly been living in a period of relative peacefulness. I've been to Yellowstone many times, and know what it is like to slip into a pool heated by the Earth, while Elk and Bison graze nearby. Been to Crater Lake, too. Now THAT was a big ol explosion, but it happened way before I got there. I've been in 3 volcanic eruptions, 2 in Alaska. It's quite exciting. One time I raced an oncoming cloud of ash.
Funny, but when I read this I thought of the people I read of near Mt. St. Helens, and some friends I had in the Phillipines.
-cp-
After all this waiting you are telling me, that thing won't blow?
Well, that damn thing sucks!!
The interview above simply debunks the idea that there are currently any clues that an eruption is imminent (although much of it seemed to say "we're not measuring that"). However, there really is a giant magma chamber under Yellowstone, and if it ever breached in the right (or wrong) way, the continental US would be toast, and the rest of the planet would experience a nuclear winter style scenario.
Depending on how you project the historical numbers, we may already be overdue for the next eruption. Then again, the margin for error is measured in millenia, so it's a little like the major asteroid strike scenario: it could happen anytime, but it probably won't.
Hmmm - so you worry about terrorism in Wyoming more than volcanoes - but are you sure that's rational? Seems like it could be a close call...
This past semester in my geology class we did an in depth study about volcanos and this caldera in particular. My professor has a great deal of enthusiasm about this supervolcano because it is most likely going to erupt within the next 50-100 years.
So climate's changing. So what? It has always changed. The big news would be if it wasn't changing. - Dr. Philip Stone
No, you're not troll bait. :)
I've read all the articles and I've come to a couple of conclusions.
The threat of a massive eruption is hyped too much in the articles discussing the threat of such a thing. They fail to point out that there have been many smaller eruptions at Yellowstone. The fact is that there is a threat of a volcanic eruption at Yellowstone and a much much smaller threat of a massive eruption that was discussed.
Also, it's worth noting that the lack of funding prevents Yellowstone from having some monitoring equipment to monitor seismic and volcanic activity. Without all the information, it's hard to completely dismiss the questions asked about the possibility of volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone in the near future.
I admit that the threats in the article are exagerrated. On the other hand, I have no doubt the government and authorities tend to downplay such dangers, probably more than they ought to.
Despite the exaggerations, there are some interesting observations reported in the articles. There's a lot of hard science presented. If the views of the people asking questions are wrong, we ought to be able to dismiss their questions with science and with the facts alone, and without insults and ridiculing. Personally, I think we ought to encourage people to ask questions. Unfortunately, the ridiculing people often receive discourages questioning things. That's a bad thing, in my opinion.
questioning something like the moon landings is immediately ridiculed
I agree, they shouldn't be immediately ridiculed but rather let them go on national TV with their tin foil hat theories and make an idiot of themselves.
Asking questions is fine. That's what science is. But stating that something is true without anything (empirical, mathematical or whatever) to back it up is quackery.
The problem with conspiracy theories on this scale in my opinion is that if they really didn't want us to know, we wouldn't know. They would suppress the people trying to expose them before they said anything at all, and we'd never hear about it. They manage to hide so many other things from us so well that later come out when they aren't as important anymore that I find it hard to believe that if they don't want us to know something that we will ever hear about it. But that's just my opinion.
As for SCO & MS, I for one am not "perfectly willing to believe conspiracies" between them without some kind of real evidence.
-"It seems like you're trying to exploit a security hole. Would you like help?"
These simple factors are what leads the layman to laugh at the theorists.
On the other hand, scientists have a history of being very open and approachable about their findings, a trait that is common among scientists, as the very nature of scientific research demands it. Historically speaking, "End of the World" theories have always been wrong.
Get the picture?
I knew it, that damn John Titor is behind this!
"Tread softly because you tread on my dreams"
(I assume you're new here).
You must be new here.
KFG
"This is one more good reason for the war on everybody oops I mean terrorism, I have recieved reports from my inteligence services that someone is going to blow me.. oops sorry that was clinton .. up with a volcano"
(bad spelling deliberate)
Does the y2k huxsters come to mind after reading this, or what? http://www.pdjkeelan.co.uk/shadowconfederacy/viewt hread.php?tid=947
"I am doing this simply because I consider it a moral and ethical requirement to let this information be known so that those who may potentially be affected may be properly informed and take whatever action is necessary or possible to protect themselves and their families."
uh, where is the link to the water purifciation kit you want to sell me? LOL
What I don't understand is why anyone who suggests something like the government covering up a disaster or questioning something like the moon landings is immediately ridiculed.
I can't speak for the disasters, but people are ridiculed for questioning the moon landings because anyone with a basic knowledge of physics and a little curiosity can find plenty of evidence that we did land on the moon.
There is precedent for such a thing, particularly in the case of near Earth asteroids.
Who where what now? Do tell, what disasters has the government covered up? What near-Earth asteroids has the government covered up? (I do recall instances of near-Earth asteroids in the range of 160,000 miles from us. I also recall that we only realized afterwards. What I don't recall is any consensus that this was covered up.)
My point is this: why is it so bad to ask these questions?
There is nothing wrong with asking these questions. The answers, however, are often freely available.
The US government has covered up a range of things; if my memory is correct: leaks of radioactive iodine in Washington, radioactive fallout in Utah, and a huge list of other crimes, but my bet is most people probably think the government will not be able to cover-up a super-eruption. Nobody knows when it will erupt. I believe the guy believes the site is stable. I assure you, after it goes off, whenever that is, lots of geology textbooks will need to be updated. So what are the chances a near Earth astroid will hit the caldera?
mostly because there is nothing wrong with the question, but those people pick and choose facts and find arcane quotes and eye witness statements.
(eye witnesses are the least reliable evidence)
they either want to believe it soo much that they flat out lie, or just ignore any evidence to the contrary.
they are idiots.
just ask any 911 conspiracy NUT about FEMA and a quote by the head. (god forbid a person under incredible ammounts of stress, and more than likely zero sleep mispeak about the day) all hell breaks loose and its a massive cover up..
In general, they aren't. Unless one of the following occurs:
We're perfectly willing to believe conspiracies between SCO and Microsoft but we accept the government at face value on things such as this and ridicule the doubters? Why is this?
See the above list.
but I'm genuinely curious why we take such negative attitudes toward questions such as whether the government doesn't yet want to inform the public over seismic concerns in the Yellowstone area.
Mostly because nobody is able to see any reason for the government to keep it a secret. Thus there can't be a conspiracy. Who are they conspiring against? People in the yellowstone area? Why? That doesn't make sense...
If, as you say, there is "secret" research going on to find out if it's going to be dangerous there, then it's actually the opposite of a conspiracy. They are doing it in secret to prevent panic, loss of lives and property.
Any body else notice that first poster on SC joined that forum on Dec 31, 2003, has made 1650 posts in about 70 days, and yet is "breaking his self imposed exile" with his yellowstone ravings?
Ok, I don't think you are using the term 'covered up' correctly here. If the government simply waits to release information until its solid, that's not a conspiracy or a coverup, that's just good sense. Other people do this too, for instance myself. If I think that I don't quite yet know all the whole answer to a question, I just may say "let me get back to you on that" and then I go to google.
What I think of when I see the word 'cover up' is a constant and concerted effort to keep information quiet over time, such as... well... I can't think of any real life examples. Either "they"'re just really good, or there aren't any. (how often do you get to use both a "and a ' right after each other. booyah!)
Here's the scoop from the Alaska Volcano Observatory. And here is some information on what to do during an eruption. "Alaska is home to more than 40 volcanoes that have erupted in the last 200 years, and more than half of the state's population lives within 100 miles of an active volcano. The single greatest hazard from an explosive volcanic eruption is ash, fine fragments of rock blown into the atmosphere during volcanic eruption. Ash is carried downwind where the coarser particles fall to the ground and fine ash forms a cloud that is carried with the air currents. Ash is extremely abrasive, does not dissolve in water, and is heavy and slippery when wet. Inhaling ash can be dangerous, especially for those with breathing problems, for children, and the elderly. While ash is falling to the ground, you may experience prolonged darkness, loss of water and electricity, and have transportation and communication problems.
I remember day being like midnight during one of the eruptions. The description above is very conservative. But it is my choice to live here, and I am well aware of the hazards. I've nearly been stomped by a moose in my year, and charged by bears, so a volcano is seemingly less of a threat. At least we don't have any muggers here.
And here is a page for very recent earthquakes in Alaska, Russian Far East, Japan, etc.
-cp-
Mostly because nobody is able to see any reason for the government to keep it a secret. Thus there can't be a conspiracy.
But the government has access to much more information and analysis than outsiders do. You can try to pin motives on the government and then judge those motives not worthwhile, but you don't know what motives they might have. It comes down to faith.
My point is this: why is it so bad to ask these questions?
I don't think it's bad to ask the questions. However, when people start constructing massive theories based on scant evidence and then cling to them madly, that's a different matter.
Scientists are smart people, and many of them are happy to answer questions from people who don't specialize in that area. It can be frustrating, though, when one of those people is dead set on believing something that is completely crazy.
For comparison, I went to a lecture by Brian Greene (author of The Elegant Universe) last night. He's a very, very smart guy, but he is also good at explaining things like quantum mechanics and string theory to non-physicists like me.
At the end of the lecture, there was a question and answer session.
One of the people asked a lengthy question about similarities between the language of mysticism (the "word of God" and the vibrational jibber-jabber that some people are into now) and that of advanced physics (e.g. string theory and the idea that all particles are actually the result of vibrations). He was obviously a misguided UFO guy, but because he asked the question in an open-minded way, Greene was able to turn it into an interesting topic.
Later, a woman came to the microphone and started off by accusing him of being biased towards "European mathematics," and that if he's interested in the higher dimensions that string theory predicts, he should be investigating the Africans who can enter the fifth dimension and that Einstein was looking for some Buddhist chant that would function as a unified theory. Because she was dead set in her crazy ways, he couldn't turn it into an interesting discussion and basically had to just tell her she was wrong.
"...always new atoms but always doing the same dance, remembering what the dance was yesterday." -Richard Feynman
Damn.. there goes my 'I guess Yogi'll be going out with a bang' joke.
Mt. St. Helens gave only two month's warning before setting of an explosion equal to a 24 megaton nuclear bomb, roughly 1848 Hiroshimas. In the year preceding that explosion, there were 500,000 tourists on the mountain.
It doesn't really matter if all is well in the neighborhood today in terms of what could happen within a year. The reports amount to little more than a weather rock. A single earthquake could change everything. Catastrophic volcanic events happen fairly frequently, so all this constant reference to 50,000 year timeframes really starts to sound a bit coy.
As another poster pointed out, covered up wasn't quite the best choice of words. But in the case of near-Earth asteroids, scientists and the government do keep things quiet while they have a chance to investigate. It's not unreasonable to suggest that this sort of thing could be done in other instances as well. Have they covered up disasters? I didn't word that well. Have they kept things quiet about potential disasters for one reason or another? You bet.
:)
I think at times we are unreasonably harsh toward people who ask questions. Sure, the threat in the articles is exaggerated, but I tend to think the government would downplay the threat of a volcanic eruption at Yellowstone while it's being investigated.
As for the moon landings, I believe they really did happen. On the other hand, I am open minded and there are some reasonable questions asked, some which I have not seen answers for. Let me pose one to you. While we don't really know the effects radiation could have on astronauts, we do know the effects radiation has on film. The astronauts traveled through the Van Allen belts without a great deal of shielding and with film that AFAIK wasn't protected well either. The effects of lesser radiation can be demonstrated on film at any dentist's office. And that exposure lasts only a few seconds. The question is why the film brought with the astronauts on their voyage to the moon wasn't affected by radiation. I'm just curious.
Hahah... What is with these people? check out the posts by "Dragonrider" on the shadow confederacy web site
This guy is certifiable. Ahh.. isn't the internet wonderful.
Wait a second: You worry about terrorism?
Sir, you are absolutely insane.
More Americans die in 36 hours from heart disease than were killed by terrorism in the entire year of 2001 (source)
If you're going to worry, at least worry about something that you actually have any control over - stop smoking. Take care with your diet and make sure that you get enough exercise. Don't drink and drive. Wear your seatbelt and make sure that you maintain your car.
Worrying about terrorism isn't going to do anything, and your reaction to any "terror" event will be the same as if it wasn't terrorism: if there are shots, explosions or big fires - grab the nearest person who needs assistance - and run. Of course, if you've been worrying about your health rather than terrorism - you'll actually be able to run rather than waddle.
Seems the Yellowstone scientists don't know this. For example, the first question...
Even as someone who approached this story with an open mind and no preconceived ideas, when I read this answer I had two immediate thoughts...
If animals were leaving due to some sort of environmental change then that wouldn't be migration, so saying that the "migrations were not unusual" doesn't answer the question. (ie: The migrations may have been perfectly normal but what about the thousands of animals leaving for unexplained reasons?)Don't dead fish wash up on the shore? So isn't that where they'd be found? Again, saying that they weren't found *in* the lakes doesn't strictly answer the question.
Anyway, I'm not trying to side with the conspiracy folks here because to be honest I don't actually know what their 'side' is, but that interview did set off some alarm bells for me. Whenever I see answers that are very specific, but specifically not an answer to the exact question that was asked, I become suspicious.
American government most slashdotters like to bash is doing an enormous job in preserving the world air travel (most North America to Far East routes fly over Alaska and Kamchatka).
One of the biggest danger of the volcano eruptions is ash that clogs jet engines.
So, monitoring equipment is put in many parts of the world by the USGS, and local people are trained in order to use it.
Real time map of ash clouds is made, and planes are redirected if necessary.
US Government foots the bill for all of these services and equipment in most of poor countries.
Tigers respect lions, elephants and hippos. Maggots respect no one. (C) S. Dovlatov
I don't know Dave Icke, but this lizard thing may have merit!
Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
You mean my beowulf cluster?
"North Pacific and Russian Far East air routes (gray lines) pass over or near more than a hundred potentially active volcanoes (red triangles). Aircraft flying along these routes, some of the busiest in the world, carry more than 10,000 passengers and millions of dollars of cargo each day to and from Asia, North America, and Europe. In the North Pacific region, several explosive eruptions occur every year. Ash from these eruptions, which has caused jet engines to fail, is usually blown to the east and northeast, directly across the air routes."
And here's what happened to one 747: "As the crew of KLM Flight 867 struggled to restart the plane's engines, "smoke" and a strong odor of sulfur filled the cockpit and cabin. For five long minutes the powerless 747 jetliner, bound for Anchorage, Alaska, with 231 terrified passengers aboard, fell in silence toward the rugged, snow-covered Talkeetna Mountains (7,000 to 11,000 feet high). All four engines had flamed out when the aircraft inadvertently entered a cloud of ash blown from erupting Redoubt Volcano, 150 miles away. The volcano had begun erupting 10 hours earlier on that morning of December 15, 1989. Only after the crippled jet had dropped from an altitude of 27,900 feet to 13,300 feet (a fall of more than 2 miles) was the crew able to restart all engines and land the plane safely at Anchorage. The plane required $80 million in repairs, including the replacement of all four damaged engines."
-cp-
Alaska Bugs Sweat Gold Nuggets
Sure enough, the Yellowstone caldera will blow high and mighty one of these millenia, and send an ash plume to the East Coast too. But we'll be able to pay handily for the damage by a simple use tax put on biogenetics companies, levied on the billions and billions of $$$ they're making from the genetics of the bacteria they pull out of the hot springs there. I've seen the little square of cyanobacterial mat they cut out of Octopus Pool up by Great Fountain geyser. That little square alone was worth billions, for the tailored bacteria they got out of it.
Thats a pretty sad story. I would have asked her why she stopped taking her medication.
It just happens that I have 15 SS-21 warheads in my garden shed, and with some general pointers, I might be able to speed things along a little bit.
Then Mr Putin can just press the red button and we can all go back to living under Communism again...
And I thought that some of the posters on /. were completely gaga. I take it all back. This lot really take the biscuit. I'm sure that they will all have really credible explanations in a couple of months as to how the world goverment covered up the explosion (with the aid of alien technology no doubt).
Barking, completely barking. I couldn't be bothered to register to point out the faults with the postings.
Carry on /. you are the voice of (relative) reason.
"There is no continuous monitoring of ground movement of the lake bottom." "There is no continuous gas monitoring in the park." "There is no continuous monitoring of the magnetic field in Yellowstone." "..a more complete set of wider frequency seismometers would be very useful to monitor such signals throughout the entire Yellowstone volcanic field." "We have recently applied for funds..." One can say with certainty, not noticeable change was observed. How comforting.
But it didn't seem like the thing to be focusing on. The Yellowstone situation, (or non-situation, depending on your news source), seems more like a symptom than a real focus of concern.
With Blue Bands showing up on Jupiter, (indicating massive upheavals of lower atmospheric gasses), and the crazy solar flare activity of late last summer. .
Like the tides, this stuff is gravity related. Something big is going on out there, and I've mentioned one of the theories as to what may be many (modded to dust) posts ago.
--Brown Dwarf Companion to the Sun passing nice and close out Pluto-way. Moving through the Kuiper Belt. Disrupting comets down into lower orbits. Cyclical comet disasters on Earth based on this. --We're seeing the final bits of the last cycle burning up and even hitting the earth even now. . . Soon to be renewed by a bunch of rocks from the rim!
Not something to get upset over, of course, but watch the skies! I wonder where the first big one is going to land. . ?
As the esoterics say, "The Human experiential cycle is mirrored by the Universe." --And Human experience is a pretty harsh ride at the moment. The world has gone nuts.
--I just read in a local paper that cops are now charging people for leaving their keys inside unlocked cars. In order to protect the insurance corporations! It may be subtle, but it's basically saying that it's against the law to trust my fellow humans. And the fact is that most people won't even blink an eyelash at his.
Yep. The world is nuts.
-FL
George Bush hears your concerns, and today announced a $2 billion dollar package to setup the Department of Homeland Vulcanism. Famous actor Andy Dick is well thought to be slated for the new director position, getting him a seat in Bush's cabinet. Bush's fondness for Dick is well known.
The new department is expected to fund research into two main areas, eruption preventing "volcano plugs" and earthquake preventing "tectonic plate glue". Many question whether the new director is up to the task, but white house spokesman Fleischer insists "Bush knows Dick."
Or will SCO sue them over the name "Caldera" and things will settle down again?
Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
I used to live in Wyoming, and I still have some relatives there. Back when I was in middle school there, we learned all about the Yellowstone Cauldera; Wyoming school kids are lucky in that the state is so geologically diverse and interesting.
Anyhow, I'm just establishing that I have some tiny bit of credibility, despite the fact that I admit I'm not a fully-trained or professional geologist.
I think, aside from the tinfoil-hat bent, the issue here boils down to two questions: Is Yellowstone a danger? And, Is the danger immediate?
To the first, the answer is a powerful yes. Were Yellowstone to blow like it has before, there's a pretty good chance most of the human population would be wiped out.
To the second question, the answer is: probably not. Overall, the geothermal activity in Yellowstone has been cooling down in the last fifty years. There is an increase in geothermal activity North of Yellowstone, but I've been informed that it's new and a relatively small danger. The theory is, in regards to that, that the hot spot which has caused all the fun activity in Yellowstone is simply moving northward.
As for the rest... well, you can draw your own conclusions.
(Apologies for any errors or typos; I'm literally half asleep as I type this.)
~UP
Eat the Path.
Did anyone else see Jeopardy last night? The answer purported that the Richter AND Mercalli scales of earthquake intensity are only measurable with a seismograph. I found it quite hilarious.
What?
Human beings are simply lousy at managing long term threat. If we can't look it in the eye's we ignore it, until it bites us in the back side and leaves us bleeding with no butt... that or we end up rediculously phobic, unable to function, worrying about things that are astronomically unlikely and ignoring the sure threats that are around us daily.
The folks in Japan thought they had quakes down flat, then Kyoto showed them they were rediculously under prepared. Even now, people are building home virtually "on" the San Andreas fault in southern California, because the short term economics outweighs the long term insanity of certain disaster. The biggest threats to people, of the hand of god type, are; * Surprise boulders or snowballs from space, * Super Volcanoes (the magma chamber under Mammoth Mountain California are a lot more scary than the Yellowstone caldera, at least at present.) * Super Tsunamis (a large slope failure on the big island in Hawaii could produce a wave over a thousand feet high on the American west coast.) * A tremendous amount of methane has been discovered on the Atlantic ocean floor. If the gas that is currently locked up were to be released all at once, a disaster killing millions of Europeans or Africans would be almost certain. * A super deadly bug, currently hidden in the deep tropics get contracted and spreads around the world making SARS, HIV, Chicken Flu, and Ebola look like a walk throug the park. We know there are terrible nasties in the jungle. It's only a matter of time before somebody catches something truly grievous. We know that the human population was at one time reduced to fewer than 1,500. Around the same time about 25,000 years ago, many of our closest hominid cousins went to their final rest. This coincides fairly well with a really big supervolcano eruption in Malasia (I believe), that may have made things very difficult for hominids for more than a decade. So we know this is a real threat. The problem is that largish tracts of history pass with no sign of serious disaster then BOOM! Something goes horribly wrong. Lot's of people get pushed off this mortal coil. Lot's of people pass down legends about the hard times and people forget. After a few years it's business as usual.
Our leaders need to take realistic precautions. They need to create sound technological contigencies for real but rare threats. The work on this super disasters should be proportinal to the likelihood of serious destruction divided by the real probability of the threat... i.e. spend more on helping folks lose weight and quit smoking, than making national plans to survive a super volcano.
Within reason protect people from their own stupidity, and short sightedness. At the same time, it is important to prioritize threats, and make sure that you're addressing the ones that will more often than not bite you in the butt. Once you've got those issuesmanaged, then you have time and resources to protect yourself against the vagueries of the universe. That and you spent more time having a life that worked, than worrying about what you cannot control.
Genda
Maybe when the asteroid hits it. Of which there is also certainly a chance.
..
...
The numbers game is different from the 'chances of asteroids hitting'. Let me explain, (following numbers are just for example, but you get the idea) Chances of been hit by asteroid.
Year 1 - 0.0000001 %
Year 2 - 0.0000001 %
Year 3 - 0.0000001 %
Year 9999 - 0.0000001 %
Chances yellowstone errupting.
Year 1 - 0.0000001 %
Year 2 - 0.0000002 %
Year 3 - 0.0000003 %
Year 9999 - 0.0009999 %
The difference between Yellowstone going up in smoke, and an asteroid, is that the chances of erruption increase each year an erruption hasn't occured, due to the previous years magma adding to the pressure. Eventually, the chances will become large enough that it will be more lightly to happen than not. As opposed to the asteroid hitting, that might happen, but probably not... and also not subject to the previous years non-event effecting this years chances.
But on the whole the greatest risk you face over the next several years is your drive to work. That ought to scare you silly.
Actually I bike to work. It's good exercise, fun, cheap, and saves the environment. The drawback is, I figure it's probably around ten to a hundred times more likely (per mile) to be fatal.
and just what the hell is yellowstone ?
You have to assume some *slight* amount of intelligence on both parts.
... Are there large numbers of fish being found dead in the lake?
... Large numbers of dead fish were not found in Yellowstone Lake, or any other lake in Yellowstone.
Q:
A:
Seems like a pretty direct answer to the question.
Are you BioCurious?
Back in the day, people like that used to be treated with a frontal lobotomy. Before that, they were kept in asylums.
Nowadays, you can only lock up people with criminal tendencies, and cutting up peoples' brains without their informed consent is frowned upon. So the crazies tend to become homeless cranks, or failing that, tenured faculty in the gender studies department.
If you live on the east coast fear the half kilometer tall super-tsunami thats set to slam into the east coast as far as 12 miles inland when one of the canary islands collapses into the ocean during its next eruption, which could be any day now. Just something to think about. :)
"Sic Semper Tyrannosaurus Rex."
I don't mind a little bit of doom and gloom now and then ... as long as its way off and unlikely. Can be entertaining and makes you forget about your current problems. But I've been reading up stuff lately on Hubbert's Peak, and I gotta say I'm praying its just a tinfoil job cos its scaring the crap out of me.
I came across the Hubbert's Peak a few years ago when I read a book review in American Scientist, but the implications didn't really sink in. Then recently I followed some google links. F*ck me. Just google for "Hubbert's Peak" or "peak oil". Basically, its based on analysis of the remaining cheap oil available to civilisation. Emphasis on cheap oil. Yeah yeah theres heaps of oil in the ground but if its 5 times more expensive then its no good cause the economies of the world will collapse. Here's the scary bit: according to predictions (by geologists) in the next few years (or by 2010) world production of oil will start to drop ... and never recover, and the price will just go up and up. End of civilisation ... yadda yadda. And no time to create alternatives. Funny thing is when you hear people like Dick Cheney saying the Club of Rome was correct, strange days.
Fortunately, on slashdot I can be sure that the majority wont believe this so I am looking forward to basking in some ignorance. I feel like I need it.
Dammit where's that tin foil hat ?
Bitter and proud of it.
Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."
That's what they want you to think.
/tinfoilhat
but what are the chances that a slashdot user will roll over in bed and see someone there at all???
Hard to beat this. Don't even need to invent the data - congress is well aware of this one.
..don't panic
Thera/Santorini 1460BC which wiped out the Minoan Civilization, and is believed to be one of the possible basis for the Egyptian Plague of Darkness.
How can anything like this get posted on /.?!
It hasn't been endorsed by three independant crackpots yet! What do they take me for, sane?!
Edward@Tomato - /home/Edward/ man woman
man: no entry for woman in the manual.
"Qua!?"
Volcano Insurance Salesman: "Come on, it doesn't rain in Rhode Island"
Peter: "Yeah, well, I'm pretty sure there aren't any volcanos, either...."
Salesman: "Well, don't you think we're due? "
Peter: "Touche, salesman..."
"No fair, you changed the outcome by measuring it!" - Professor Hubert J. Farnsworth
Only problem is I'm not sure what the fake truth is.
It's pretty sad when a nicely insightful post like yours gets nothing but goof-off replies.
Oh well.
I can't figure it out either, btw. I think it's part intellectual laziness, however.
RE: Copyright Infringement
From: D. McBride
Attention: It has come to our attention that some newsworthy geologic fluctuations are occurring at Yellowstone National Park Lake. It has also come to our attention that several scientists and conspiracy advocates are unlawfully using the term "Caldera" to describe what is otherwise known as a super volcano. Please be advised that "Caldera", "Caldera Systems", and "Caldera Anything Else" are copyrights owned by the SCO Corporation. You are advised that as of March the 12th we will begin legal action to protect our copyrights. Additionally a lawsuit against against the Federal Government for ownership of the "Yellowstone National Park" as we believe that Yellowstone Lake is a derivative work built on our copyright.
Thank You:
Santa Cruz Operation
AKA: Owners and Master of the Known Universe
For those who haven't seen "Bowling For Columbine", the last part delves into this subject. It posits that the government and news media like to keep the US populace living in fear. Fear of anything - just as long as there is fear. The movie doesn't really answer the question of whether it's a conspiracy, or maybe that the populace likes to be fearful and the government/media are just "selling what sells." I sort of came away with the feeling the movie was saying the government realizes that if people are afraid they'll turn to the government to protect them, and they're milking that for all it's worth.
Anyway, it's an interesting take on the national psyche.Can't say much for the rest of the movie, but I'd mod the "fear" part +1 insightful.
You were 80% angel, 10% demon. The rest was hard to explain. - Over The Rhine
"Math in a song is good."-Linford
_________________________________
... from now on anyone in the area within 500 miles of yellowstone should be prepared to evacuate on a moments notice ... plan a route!!! and know where your loved ones are so they can be evacuated on short notice / this is not a notice to evacuate but simply a notice to be prepared / if it comes to that ... drive away from the area towards the farthest point from yellowstone ... no one can predict if or when yellowstone might blow ... just be prepared is all i am saying ... the earth seems to be very unstable ... jim mccanney
EMERGENCY POSTING
early morning january 8, 2004
late last evening we received word that there were 22 more earth-quakes in iran and that country is on maximum alert / our sun and solar system have been very active and yellowstone is more tenuous after 5 major quakes in jackson wyoming this past afternoon
_________________________________
To what, I don't know. Though, to have over 1000 posts, comprising 90% of the site content, it surely must be important.
This article only gives another explanation to what has been going on in Yellowstone. Most of the answers given by the scientist being interviewed are inconclusive. Most of the time he just says that certian changes have not been "oberved". This, coupled by the fact that they have stopped monitoring many elements of Yellowstone, only gives way to more speculation.
Frankly, this could get those tin-foil wearing geeks stirring even more.
Do a google search for "new madrid earthquake". I don't recommend that you make long-term plans to live in Memphis.
#naabhaprzrag, #sverubfr-000, #agi-fcbafberq, negvpyr[pynff*=' negvpyr-ary-'] { qvfcynl: abar !vzcbegnag; }
Actually I bike to work. It's good exercise, fun, cheap, and saves the environment. The drawback is, I figure it's probably around ten to a hundred times more likely (per mile) to be fatal.
Actually only about 4 times, from what I understand.
When my 'stitions' are correct, then my superstitions themselves become 'stitions' and I lose my grip on reality....
Okay. Here's some science.
(by the way, the 'meters' was a typo, current estimates are at 150 feet in diameter)
e=mc^2
Based on the destruction that was measured, it's not entirely difficult to estimate the amount of energy required to cause the observed effect. Since there is a definite formula for converting mass to energy and vice versa, and given that we have samples of debris from extraterrestrial objects, we can calculate an average density. Therefore, we can approximate to a fair degree the approximate diameter of a spherical object required to create the effects that we quite clearly documented.
So, how about showing us some of your (allcaps) SCIENCE!
While you're at it, why don't you try some GRAMMAR! and some SPELLING! while you're casting stones in a glass house, hmm?
If there is a tidal wave that washes up 12 miles inland, then I want to be standing 12 miles and 1 foot inland to watch it just so I can say 'Nyah Nyah Nee Goo Goo'.
Eat at Joe's.
... and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."
There's no amount of debunking that can deter the mad-hatters and the tinfoil hat crowd. A buddy of mine is fairly inspired by the chemtrails conspiranoia and there's just no amount of debunking that will dissuade him; he's admitted that he doesn't know what they spray, that there's no scientifically valid evidence that anything IS being sprayed, or any logical rationale (other than genocide) for spraying bad things on the population.
People who buy into conspiracy and paranoia will ALWAYS find a reason to disbelieve debunking and believe the conspiracy. To their "credit", it's not like the post-WWII government hasn't given even reasonable people lots of reasons to buy into conspiratorial thinking....
Do a google search for "new madrid earthquake". I don't recommend that you make long-term plans to live in Memphis.
Sings...
Hello, information, get me Memphis, Tennessee
Please let them know they're going to fall into the sea...
What the hell does conspiracy theorist have to do with this? There was a documentary on the Discovery channel, on this very subject. There is a magma chamber under yellowstone, and they traced volcanic ash, many states away, that came from there.
Don't Vote for Norm Dicks! http://www.nodicks2008.com Another nutless dirtbag that voted for the FISA bill!
It'd be funnier if my Oklahoma relations weren't so into that last one. These people are still living out McCarthyism, one way or another.
"Fundamentalism" isn't about divine morality. It's about human authority.
Bill Bryson wrote a book I'm reading which is an excellent general question answerer: "A Short History of Nearly Everything" Amazon
It goes into craters, and also the Yellowstone super volcano. It's pretty interesting and fun to read (as are all of his books!)
"If voting could really change things, it would be illegal. " - Revolution Books, NY
You shall not talk about the Illuminati, except on pain of Death.
As an expert on the Illuminati, I can reasonably conclude that you are NOT a member of the Illuminati.
If you want to know my qualifications as an expert, I cannot tell you. You understand?
Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
Think about it-
If there is a higher probability of an unavoidable caldera 'event.' WTF difference will it make if you are at Yellowstone, or in LA, etc? I don't think it's going to dramatically alter your survival rate!
Temper the above with the fact that 'sooner than later' agreably could mean 2210 vs 12210 as much as 2005... No? And then factor in the massive propensity for stupid-human-tricks and demonstrations-in-poor-reasoning...
I'm not saying that there is a coverup, just that it wouldn't be so totally unfathomable.
Although if announced, Mel has his sequel"Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."
The trouble is, conspiracy theorists don't operate rationally. A conspiracy theorist would simply say "the scientists were paid off/faked the report/are covering it up." It's a government conspiracy, after all, and we all know that the "real" government has unlimited resources with which to rule the world (secretly) with an iron fist.
Debunking a conspiracy theorist is about as easy as solving the meaning of life.
The Right Reverend K. Reid Wightman,
If the engines fail, the RAT deploys. If I'm not mistaken, it's essentially a propeller generataor that is deployed into the airflow (usually under) the aircraft. It provides just enough power in an emergency to keep the hydraulics and flight control systems operating in the event of total engine failure.
I bike to work as well. I don't even own a car anymore.
As for chances of fatality, well, that's highly variable. If you're an average cyclist you're far more likely to be injured on a bicycle than in a car, but less likely to have any of those injuries prove life threatening, so overall your risk per mile is only a few times greater than in a car, and then only if you're riding in close proximity to cars.
If you are an experienced cyclist who is trained in, or applies the techniques of Effective Cycling (tm) (with whom I have no affiliation) your chances of a fatal accident on a bicycle, even while mixing it with cars, is only about 1/10th that of driving a car.
Save your life, have some fun at the same time. Join a good touring club in your area. Bicycles aren't anywhere near as dangerous as some people like to think, and even then, it's really the bloody cars that are dangerous, not the bike.
KFG
Sure - I'm always up for an adjustment of the status quo. All you have to do is breach the main magma chamber such that it is exposed to more or less normal atmospheric pressure. The gases that are currently dissolved in the magma, under pressure, will then release explosively.
It's analogous to the cork on a champagne bottle: you only have to remove the cork a little way - providing a route for pressure equalization - and all the gas bubbles dissolved in the champagne simultaneously decide to head for freedom, taking the cork with them.
But a champagne bottle is more like a regular volcano: it has a neck which constrains the flow of champagne, like an ordinary volcano's primary magma conduit. That happens because normal volcanos have magma chambers far below the surface of the earth, which severely constrains the escape of magma.
In Yellowstone's case, there's a large magma chamber much closer to the surface, the heat of which causes all the geysers and other geologic activity in Yellowstone. If that magma chamber is breached, the magma escaping under pressure won't have to force its way through nearly as much rock. Instead, much of Yellowstone and the surrounding region will become the cork on a well-shaken champagne bottle without a neck.
It just happens that I have 15 SS-21 warheads in my garden shed, and with some general pointers, I might be able to speed things along a little bit.
I suspect that bombarding the surface may not help much, unless you get lucky and vibrations deeper down cause something to crack. I think you're looking at a venture along the lines used in the asteroid-hitting-Earth movies: you're going to have to drill a bunch of holes a few miles deep, preferably at widely spaced points around the caldera's 1500 square mile area. Then insert your warheads, rigged with remote detonators or people very dedicated to your cause, down to the bottom of the holes. Unless you have a death wish, I suggest being on the other side of the planet when triggering the detonation.
I didn't word that well. Have they kept things quiet about potential disasters for one reason or another? You bet.
Okay, I'll bite. What do you have in mind?
You've obviously never bothered to look up the answers to that question yourself, because it took me one google search and a ctrl-f to find the answer - they were only exposed to the radiation for four hours each time, and they were protected by the spaceship.
This is exactly what I'm talking about.
No way it's that soon. It's still coming up too fast for that - it's not going to be like hitting a wall, as individual wells will go dry at different times, we'll gradually start tapping the stuff that's kind of hard to drill, before moving on to the stuff that's really hard to drill.
There are also other options - someone mentioned bio-fuels. In addition, coal, of which we have absolutely assloads, can be treated chemically to yield gasoline and such. This program was started after the 70's embargo and actually got pretty far, but it cost about $2/gallon (can't remember what year those dollar estimates were pegged to), which wasn't competitive then. By the late 80's, we got complacent because oil was cheap again, and funding was cut for such programs.
Ultimately, if we had to, I bet a coal-based fuel wouldn't cost more than $2.50-$3 a gallon today if it were scaled up. Not pleasureable, no - but we're nearly paying that now in LA, and I believe the cost is currently higher than that in Europe now.
So no, I don't think the "doom and gloom" scenario will come to pass that easily.
Didn't you see Deep Impact? The government keeps these things a secret so there aren't massive hoards of people trying to cram into the special underground facilities they are building to hold the elite few.
Also, people tend to be easier to govern if they aren't all living like tomorrow is their last day on earth.
In the Yellowstone calculation, you should take into account the chance that Yellowstone will erupt in a non-devastating way. If there's a minor eruption, that's no big deal (except for tourism, I guess), and it resets the build-up. I suspect there will be some sort of eruption within my lifetime, but I suspect it won't be anything to worry about.
If those are the three data points, it looks like a 700,000 year cycle to me. And we're safe for 100,000 more years.
that these people are going to be *disappointed* if it (the volcano eruption, end of the world, whatever) doesn't happen!! Are their lives so awful and dreary that they wish for such a thing just to get relief from living? I can actually appreciate such feelings, (been there, etc.) but, if they/you actually hope for or joyfully anticipate such an event, talk to someboday about your life. You need to find someone that can help you get over your past and look forward to your future. It is, after all, your life. *Cragen
Heh - while an eruption - as certain as the sunrise - may be millenia distant, I'm surprised whole teams of scientists aren't there monitoring this just for the sake that it's a super volcano sitting right off the highway! Geez - 7-11's couldn't be more convenient! It sounds like it's a ho-hum thing to these guys and they're way underplaying this for the sake of tourism dollars. Heck, super volcano. I'd want to go even more because of that than instead of just some weird place with a few geysers.
:)
I love the interview tho. I can compare it with a similar interview with the Mnt Vesuvius National Park Scientists back in the day:
"So, do you think the tremors we're feeling amount to anything?"
"No, it's from all the mules and it's also a windy day."
"What about the smoke from the top of the mountain? Wouldn't that indicate that this may actually be a volcano."
[chortles] "Of course not, silly. There's a god in the mountain making beef jerky. Shuh, volcano?"
"So, visitors needn't worry?"
"Not at all. Bring your friends and family - younguns get in for 10 denari a day - and be sure to stop by the gift shop and buy buy buy..."
"So, you don't do any monitoring of changes?"
"None at all."
"And, have you detected any changes with your monitoring?"
"None at all."
"Have you inspected the suspicious bulge over by the pond?"
"We went there once. Fishing was good."
"If anything were to happen, do you have an escape plan?"
"No. Not my job. Besides, ya'll need to come by for a day or three - entry fees are only 25 denari or 3 goats and a donkey. No danger here."
"So, there you have it from the proper authority. Mnt Vesuvius is not a volcano and not in imminent danger of exploding like those volcano freaks are claiming. Thelonius signing off... Okay - are we thru? Whew - those volcano freaks are a bunch of overzealous liars. Hey - do ya'll have cotton candy? Caramel apples? I want to see the new rides... [Thel, your mic's still on...]"
For real. It's due for a big adjustment here soon.
I checked out the usgs site yesteday after I felt an earth tremor - (must have been a truck, because nothing was noted on their site) - and I saw a link to a Yellowstone Lake Bulge FAQ. And there they talked about the bulge in the lake, having nothing to do with any potential supervolcano eruption. Then this story comes out.
These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
It is simply a matter of timing the two events so that the asteroid crashes into the caldera at the time of eruption and everything cancels itself out.
Ought to make a good B-movie plot.
If you had my real name, you'd use an alias too.
Citing Bowling for Columbine is like citing the National Enquirer. Neither one has much of a basis in reality.
You can tell a great deal about the character of a man by observing those who hate him.
I'd mod the cartoon with all the jumpy white guys with guns a +5 Funny, no question.
i can't back your statistical logic, because the same holds true for asteroids as does an erruption. it's been shown that earth is overdue for an asteroid hit based on the geological evidence which shows regularly spaced hits from space. so our odds increase with each year that the asteroid which is long overdue will find us, and each year that goes by makes us more statisically likely to have that hit. in essence only because we estimate the year a specific thing took place. (if one hit 65,000,000 years ago and killed of the dinosaurs, what's the accuracy?)
is that it takes 29% more energy to produce than it gives back when used. Two separate studies have shown this. Here's a link:
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/031128.html
nm.
Unless you have a death wish, I suggest being on the other side of the planet when triggering the detonation.
There was an interesting discussion about this on usenet a while back. One interesting quote:
>the ones inclined to worry would
>simply move somewhere a long way off.
From what the Horizon documentary said it is not clear that a sufficient value of "a long way off" is available on the Earths surface.
So it could be that the death wish is mandatory.
(The article where the quote comes from.)
Mod down posts with a "Free Mac Mini/iPod" sig, they're spam!
Bummer, I can't RTFA, because, "Access to this website is currently not possible as your hostname/IP appears suspicous."
.gov address (I'm at Los Alamos). I guess I'm part of the conspiracy...
That's what I get for browsing from a
If you disagree with me on social issues, then it's pretty clear that you are a narrow-minded bigot.
The difference between the Yellow Stone magma pocket and others is that with the others the ground structure forces the Magma (to find and create and) to flow into channels and erupt as multiple vulcanos depending on the build up pressure. The Yellow Stone ground structure makes the pocket build up pressure without much eruption paths and explode all at once.
The solution
Turn the Super Vulcano into a series of normal Vulcanos. We have the technology to dig channels underneath seas, through sand, mud or rock. We could dig a star network of channels with Yellow Stone at the heart.
If we decide the pressure is too high we can punch through a channel and let Lava travel to another location where it is brought toward the surface and will erupt as a vulcano.
If the eruption is closing it self up too soon we can punch in an already dug branch channel.
If the Yellow Stone pressure is getting too low and we fear a collaps of the ground above the magma pocket (causing a caldera explosion) we can block the operational channels by blowing down ruble from chambers above a channel while it is still deep in the ground. With the thrust of the lava stream interrupted the channel can be permanently blocked further down the channel.
Remember, there wasn't much protection provided by the spaceship. I recognize that the astronauts weren't exposed to radiation much, but you didn't answer the question about the film.
You haven't answered my question about the effects of radiation on the film, but yet you ridicule me. Why is that?
> i can't back your statistical logic, because the same holds true for asteroids as does an erruption.
.001% now, regarless of how recently the lastone hit. If we were hit today, tomorrow there would still be a %.001 chance of another one hitting.
And I can't back yours. Eruptions are a process with a guaranteed end (an explosion, although the magnatude can vary wildly). Asteroids are not a process, but each one is independent of each other one. So, unless there is more asteroid "activity," if the chances of an asteroid strike were %.001 100,000,000 years ago, the chances are
When dealing with statistics, remember: the chance of something happening at an exact time is not affected by the fact that that same thing happened at some other specific time. That might not make sense unless you already understand...
You're assuming that the chances of an eruption increase from year to year. That isn't necessarily so. It's quite possible that the magmatic system underlying Yellowstone could be in an essentially steady state for thousands of years, in which case the chances of an eruption could remain unchanged for a very long time. It all depends on how you model the behavior of the volcano. I don't think it's obvious that the "pressure cooker" model is the correct one in the case of Yellowstone.
I like to remember that astrophysics is almost
... ...
entirely *not* random (Heisenberg, et.al.,
aside.) Those rocks out there are moving in
predictable orbits and the problem is not
probability but our lack of a complete database.
Ergo, chances of getting hit by an asteroid go
something like this:
Year 1 - 0.0000001%
Year 2 - 0.0000001%
Year 2346 - 100.00%
Cockroach Year 1 - 0.0000001%
Cockroach Year 2 - 0.0000002%
-- Gary Goldberg KA3ZYW 301/249-6501 AIM:OgGreeb Digital Marketing Inc., Bowie, MD
This is the problem with pseudo-scientists and non-scientists.... this article does not even address the issues that those concerned about Yellowstone have.
Yet the posting claims it debunks them? The relevant questions weren't even asked! Its like listenting to democrats expalain how doubling the tax burden on the poor is really designed to punish the rich. (As if punishing the rich were even a moral thing to begin with.)
This is what really sucks about mainstream society-- people believe what they are told to believe, and then steafastly refuse to listen to reason:
EG: Microsoft's investment of $150M "bailed out" Apple, despite Apple having billions in chash.
EG: The x86 is faster CPU despite the fact that the only way you can get those results are with artificial measures that essentially measure clock speed.
EG: The Republicans tax cut (which would have cut taxes on the richest by %5 and on the poorest by %33) were a "tax cut for the rich"... and that democrats "Care about the poor"-- even though their changes on Bush's tax cut reduced the tax cut for the poor drastically... EG: Democrats care about the poor so they raise their taxes.
Bottom line: Yellowstone may erupt soon, or it may be a long time. The questions asked didn't address the issues.... and of course nobody is going to see something looking at it on a day to day basis -- until it happens anyway!
But no, we have to spread the conspiracy theory that people who question the official word on anything are nuts-- despite the fact that much of what you are told is outright lies.
CNN Says "Assault weapons" are full auto machine guns (full auto has been banned since the 30s). But most americans believe it.
Hell most americans believe that marriage is traditionally between a man and a woman-- despite the fact that the ceremony was created by the catholic church to honor priest-alterboy relationships, and only later extendede to the masses as marriage.
People cannot think critically, or the refuse to, and so they believe waht tehy want or are told to believe... and the quality of slashdot goes to hell. The quality of science writing goes to hell.
And so we get articles "Debunking" things that don't even address the subject!
Of course its not erupting now, nobody says it is!
Yeah, and you guys panned the ipod too: http://apple.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=01/10/23
I hold the scientific few of nature. It has extremely strange biofeed back mechanisms. Since what we do has impact on the planet, in this sense nature does react to what people do. That means it is possible for people to pull the wrong trigger and get a nasty surprise. The Religious Right's notion that nature wants to keeps its Christians rich and healthy and will never do anything bad is as absurd as the pagans who dream of a vengenceful nature that will punishes all of the bad middle class people of the world in a dramatic way.
Anyone with a shed full of missiles, that's planning to try something like this, presumably would also set up a bunker out of harms way (i.e. off-continent) with a few year's supply of food. And if not, well, Darwin works in mysterious ways...
It's basically like saying, "It's 1848 times bigger than this other really fucking huge explosion that none of you actually saw." You might as well just say "It was a really fucking huge explosion."
If anything, we should be talking about explosive magnitudes in terms of "St. Helens's." Many thousands of people actually witnessed that event.
Because that is a magnitude of destructive power than people can quantify from the ubiquitous photographic and cinematic evidence. When you see a city leveled, you can identify with it. St. Helens is not as easily quanitifiable because there is no human scale to it other than a point on a map. If you were to say, "this volcano was as destructive as St. Helens," people wouldn't really "get it." Ok, a bunch of trees burned. Big deal. If you say "2000 times the destructive force of Hiroshima was released" people DO get it. They think, crap, that would level Los Angeles.
Like it or not, "Hiroshima" is a very useful relative unit of measure for destructive force that people can wrap there brains around.
I ran an article about the alleged Yellowstone supervolcano back in December 2002 on my web site. I feel a bit foolish.
You want to know who isn't running Firefox 2.x? They spell it "definately" and "rediculous".
I woudldn't call this ridicule. I'm scolding you. If you followed my links and poked around a little, you'd find your answers. The film was also protected.
You've said yourself that you don't doubt the moon landings. If the moon landings happened, then it would logically follow that the problems you're presenting would have to have been solved. And if they were solved and implemented, it also logically follows that how they solved this problem is documented somewhere. So instead of throwing out questions you haven't researched, try looking up the answers.
That's what they said the last time too, 60.000 years ago!
--- "To pee or not to pee, that is the question." ---
well, if the chances are of an asteroid hitting every 65M years, and it's the 64,9999M year then we can assume the chances get increasingly higher each year that passes that the asteroid has not hit. magma does not need to erupt. there are earth processes that defuse this, like a groundwater fissure. so an eruption is not always guaranteed just because magma is present.
Score:-1, Flamebait
I make fun of myself and get marked down for it. pfft!
Yeah, might as well cite anything Bush says. At least that would be good for a laugh.
Lars T.
To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck
You might be right about the cheap oil, but Canada still has loads of expensive oil in oilsands and offshore. The thing is: when oil prices become high, that will encourage investment in extraction of this oil. That investment often takes the form of improving extraction technology, which in turn makes the oil cheaper to get at.
Canada is currently the US's biggest supplier of power -- I'm just worried that they'll decide they need to control the resources themselves like in I-raq.
If we knew everything perfectly, there wouldn't be a need for probabiltiy in any branch of science.
Even if we knew of all asteroids out there, they don't always act in a way that we can predict.
Now I know why casinos make money.
IANAP (I am not a pilot), but I seem to remember the glide ratio of a 747 is 20:1, meaning it flies 20 feet forward for every foot of elevation lost. That could be pretty unsettling if you onboard, but still better than if you were on the space shuttle in the same situation!
IANAAP (I am not an astro-physicist) so what I did was look up something called the, 'Nemesis Theory.' You can do the same if you are interested in this.
The idea has been around for a while now, and there are interesting arguments both for and against, but the science behind it is not of the tin-foil variety. I find it compelling, as it neatly explains heretofore unexplained wobbles in numerous orbits and such. But you can go research it yourself and come to your own conclusions.
-FL
Expect the Draft sometime shortly after the next presidential election!
-FL
> if the chances are of an asteroid hitting every 65M years, and it's the 64,9999M year then we can assume the chances get increasingly higher each year that passes that the asteroid has not hit
No, we cannot assume that, if there is a random distribution of asteroids. I liked the AC post of "Now I know why casinos make money," as it brings up a good example of why statistics can be confusing. The chances of an asteroid hitting do NOT increase every year there isn't one.
Take slot machines (well, ones that are truly random): Sure, there is a jackpot to be given every 2,000,000 pulls. For each pull, the odds are the same every time. Sure, if you pull it 2,000,000 times, it is likely that one of those might be a jackpot, but even if it has not happened for 4,000,000 pulls, your chances of hitting it on pull 4,000,001 are exactly the same of hitting it on pull one (if they are truly random, of course -- real slot machines are "weighted" to give results after a certain amount of time/# of pulls).
Another way of looking at it is this: You get jackpot on pull 1! (congratulations!) You put in another quarter and your chances are exactly the same of getting another. HOWEVER, from an outside view, the chances of getting two in a row are slim. From the perspective of the player, since you already got it once, you have the guaranteed first, so it no longer fits into the statistical equation, so your chances are no worse.
This mistake is one of the hard-to-grasp concepts in statistics, and is one of the reasons statistics can be used to "prove anything."