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Zogby Claims Mobile-Only Voters Swing to Kerry
Zogby released a poll yesterday that showed the ill-counted mobile-phone-only voters heavily in favor of Kerry over Bush. It should be noted that all participants opted in to the survey through a site run by Democrats, making the results non-random and therefore highly suspect. Further, the results tracked very closely ("virtually identical") to other polls run of the same age group, which means that if the results are to be trusted, mobile-only users in this age group are not any different from other voters in this age group, and their exclusion from those other polls is insignificant.
At least I hope so -- I don't want to be stuck in the booth deliberating about aldermen while some nitwit a foot away yammers about his sex life.
What I'm listening to now on Pandora...
...how is this different from a ridiculous poll online that asks "who won the debate that ended 5 minutes ago" or the nickelodeon online web polls asking 12 year olds who they would vote for?
I know I saw this on the dnc.org website once, was probably on the rnc site also, that told people to go out to as many online polls as possible to vote for Kerry. These online presidential polls are less reliable to the results from these.
Does anyone here read Slashdot?
Marxist evolution is just N generations away!
This reminds me of when FDR won his first election. Traditional Democratic voters in the south did not have phones like the Republican base in the north (yes, it has switched over time).
Therefore, the polls were biased for the Republican and was generally thought to be a close election. Of course, FDR won in a landslide.
The big question, as always with this age group, is still turnout. Zogby predicts the group accounts for 12% or more(!) of the electorate, so they could play a huge factor in determining the election. And Zogby adds (which you conveniently left off) that there are zero undecideds. Suspect or not, Zogby declares that to mean "this group is definitely going to vote."
Don't be so quick to discount this poll.
It was confirmed that half of all americans earn less than the median income...
Seriously, how is this news? Even rigorously scientific polls are highly suspect, so how does a nonscientific poll merit anything other than an nod?
My blog
America will elect Bush period. You nerds and geeks here may wish otherwise, but it's not gonna happen.
bottom line is: we will outsource your job and you to the third world soon, that is where you belong.
-- i am being constantly offended by liberal moderators here as a notorious republican flamer --
Well, only those mobile-only users dumb enough to let their phone numbers get listed.
"Wow. Now THAT'S a lot of angry Indians." - Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer
Are people actually trusting this? People registered on a site run by one party to a survey. I WONDER which party is more likely to register there? Seriously, if a republican site were to do this, everyone would be screaming like crazy. Adding to that, turnout is usually very low in this group of voters, so I really don't see the importance.
Those who study history are doomed to watch others repeat it.
The bigger question (and I don't know the answer) is how does the wireless-only demographic compare with similar demographic that is polled ... namely the young voter. Assuming that most of these (wireless) voters are younger... how do they compare with the non-wireless younger voters (who were reached in the polls)? My hunch is that there is significant overlap between them; thus wireless attitudes are implicitly contained within the poll results and there will not be a signficant difference come tomorrow... but that is just my hunch.
"It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance." - Thomas Sowell
It seems that this poll wouldn't have to be COMPLETELY useless. If you compared the number of people who signed up for this poll to the total number of people who exclusively own cell phones, then you can get an idea of how many people are decided and feel strongly enough to sign up for such a poll. Of course I'm quite sure that this wasn't a consideration during the poll, and was more of a way to say "look, look at all these people who prefer $candidate, you should prefer $candidate as well!".
Famous Last Words: "hmm...wikipedia says it's edible"
Or is it Motorola that counts as "The Democrats" for this particular campaign?
Or is this just a "Republicans would never encourage people to vote, therefore it's those lousy Democrats that are behind it" thing?
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
...the results tracked very closely ("virtually identical") to other polls run of the same age group, which means that if the results are to be trusted, mobile-only users in this age group are not any different from other voters in this age group, and their exclusion from those other polls is insignificant.
That assertion has no legs. Saying that because set A responds in a way that is similar to set B's response, they are essentially the same and A can be excluded if B is? That's just wrong. For one, the questions used to obtain the responses of the two groups, coming from different polling orgs, will very likely not be the same, which obliterates the base of your assertion.
And, man, "if the results are to be trusted" - that *pegged* the needle on my Strauss-o-meter.
Big Daddy, Johnny, Burp, Aunt Zelda, Scott, Slurp, Big Momma
Yup, things are looking good for the good guys.
Is this why I keep getting text messages warning me that if I went over my minutes I'll get arrested at the polls on November 4?
I see you're just posting user comments as front page now
No sig for you!!
You forgot the straws! The straws and the cups, oh my!! There's no stopping Kerry now!
!
I wouldn't post such results. Proving that the an overwheliming majority of people dumb enough to give out their cell phone numbers are Dems really is not a horribly encouarging sign. Of course, you have to wonder about the Republicans that willingly gave up their cell phone numbers to a Democrat orginization. Isn't that a sign of greater stupidity?
So... maybe we can take the lesson from this that people are people, and people are stupid.
While the poll (if the results are to be believed) indicates a high preference in this popoulation for Kerry, how do we know that this is who the cell-phone crowd will vote for? I think this popoulation, which is clearly more tech-savvy than the average american, might also be more informed about the issues. And if that is the case, you may see a LARGE chunk of this population voting Libertarian or Green. I think it is unfortunate that these polls have biased themselves by saying "Who would you vote for - Bush, Kerry, or Nader". It is like saying "Do you want to get shot in the right knee, the left knee, or the head". How about I take that hidden 4th option and choose not to get shot at all?
Could someone explain to me why the majority of visitors to a Democrat-affiliated site think that Kerry is better than Bush?
Click here or a puppy gets stomped!
The Democrats overwhelmingly support the hideous practice.
=> Democrats not \in {Good Guys}
To any poller. when I am at home (rarely) and I get a call on the land line (only have it since Verizon does not have naked DSL, I wish they would offer naked DSL) and get a call from a political person (I don't get any calls normally so any call it political in nature now) I first let the answering machine get it then I pick up the phone and put the mouth peace up to the speaker of the answering machine. I don't care who it is that is calling if you are calling for political stuff, you will get the feed back. Mod me a troll, but I hate the telemarketers, I hate them I don't care what you are selling. (and as a side not, I have not gotten a chance to hit the liberals yet with this, I have only gotten 1 call from a liberal, all the rest have been the republicans, and I am a conservative, and I just do it I don't care who you are, don't telemarket me.)
The Democrats are the party of moral-relativists
Both parties are moral relativists, and both sanction plenty of death. Abortions have gone up under Bush. He enthusiasticly supports the death penalty. We've killed anywhere from 15,000 to 100,000 Iraqi civillians, depending on whose information you believe. Either party will continue that.
The next four years won't just be good for abortionists, but also for weapons manufactures and oil companies. They will be bad for our soldiers, unborn babies, the poor, the wrongly convicted, and millions of people all over the world who are at the mercy of our murderous foreign policy.
Life starts at conception, and continues until natural death. Murder is wrong whether it is performed by a surgeon, an electric chair or a bomb. All could easily be avoided if this country would wake up and stop supporting the killing machine that is the US government.
- Starting a war under false/erroneous pretense
- Ignoring military recomendation to have 400,000 boots on the ground to occupy
- Miscalculating (boy it this an understatement) how the occupied Iraqies will react to our invastion
- Ignoring calls to have a terrorism on the front burner when he came to office
- Making bellicose threats against Osama and not being able to deliver
- no bid contracts
- Karl Rove
- Not being able to complete a coherent thought without a teleprompter
- Ignoring global warming
- Not fulfilling his commitment to the National Guard
- Failing at every business deal he was ever involved with (except Rangers baseball team which was given to him on a silver platter).
- Starting a war without planning on paying for it. Our kids will be on the hook for this debacle for decades
- In general has been a clueless, previledged jerk.
On the otherhand we have Kerry:"It should be noted that all participants opted in to the survey through a site run by Democrats, making the results non-random and therefore highly suspect.
The definition of a poll involves the random sampling of a population. To me, this poll is in violation of the most fundamental rule of polling, randomness, and therefore isn't suspect but pretty much worthless.
Having said that, I probably don't need a poll to tell me this. Would anyone agree with the basic assumption that cell-phone only users are widely college-student age people (like me) that have, on average, a more liberal voting lean?
PUDGE JE: Please Do Not Vote
Remember, this is one slashdot editor that supports Democracy!
You forgot one that belongs in a third category:
Both men can manage to answer or dodge a simple rhetorical question without resorting to posting a cut'n'paste list of partisan garbage you got off some website.
Nice try, though. I'm sure you have convinced exactly zero people of anything.
Sheesh.
/.
Telling the Big Lie over and over isn't going to work at
Possibly. However, the Zogby poll also indicated 97.2% of the cell phone users polled planned to vote (2.3% planned not to, .5% uncertain). The claimed error margin for the poll is 1.2%.
If accurate, either text messaging cell phone users are much more politically active than the average GenX slacker, or Bush has successfully and massively mobilized the youth vote for the first time since 1972. Of course, he's mobilized it mostly against himself, but it still may prove his most lasting contribution to American politics... except his administration's share of the federal debt deficit. =)
//Information does not want to be free; it wants to breed.
Owned.