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Slate Posts Top-Secret Exit Polling Numbers
cmdr_beeftaco writes "Slate is running an ongoing commentary with the raw exit-poll data from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers-big city newspapers and other broadcasters. 'The paid users of exit-poll data have signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes, and the networks have promised not to call any states before their polls close. Slate believes its readers should know as much about the unfolding election as the anchors and other journalists, so given the proviso that the early numbers are no more conclusive than the midpoint score of a baseball game, we're publishing the exit-poll numbers as we receive them.'"
> For an explanation of why Slate is posting exit-poll numbers, see the previous post, below.
Notice that that "previous post", now Slashdotted, pointed out that unlike the major media networks, Slate doesn't have the computer models that allow projections from these samples, to don't get too excited/depressed over this yet.
And if you live out west, please vote.
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
The rumor going around at work is that traditionally when there is heavy turnout at the polls (like today's near record turnout) it is a sign of the masses rising up to throw out the party in power.
I haven't lost my mind!
It is backed up on disk...somewhere...
These are provided by the National Election Pool, the successor to Voter News Services, disbanded after the 2000 election froo-fraw. And these numbers have been available all afternoon (well, since 2pm EST) to anyone in the media who would've been interested. Salon's readers would've learned about it any number of times reading the War Room this afternoon. And as always, these early returns are to be taken with a HUGE - repeat, HUGE - grain of salt. The networks won't report these because they are unreliable at this point and because of the great caution they are taking to avoid another 2000 debacle.
I'm not sure if it's a good idea for Slate to be posting exit polls. Exit polls tend to throw elections when they're very close, IMHO, and we cannot afford to have the election be in doubt this time around.
BTW: if you're reading this and you haven't voted yet, GO VOTE.
US businesses that currently accept chip and PIN/signature
There's also constant updates at race2004.net
I think its reasonable for the more wonky places like Slate(did I just say that?) to post exit numbers. The people reading it there or here have probably either voted already or will do so regardless of the polls.
I still think it would be very ethically questionable to, say, broadcast the numbers on a popular radio show or in the 6PM news blurb.
Kerry's going to win at least 306 electoral points, since he's picking up Iowa according to the late results.
To the guy who stole my Kerry sign in the middle of the day: Congratulations, you've got yourself a nice sign.
Me: the guy I voted for is going to become the President.
Today is a really good day indeed. Hey buddy, Enjoy that fucking sign!
Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
As long as the readers know it's just first data and not worth much right now, I think it's fine.
Besides, maybe it will convince voters in certain states who were going to give their vote to a protest candidate, or not vote at all, that it's closer in some states that were expected to be solidly in favor of one candidate or another, and so maybe their vote might actually matter after all.
Sure would hate for it to come down to under a thousand votes again, and be someone who threw away my chance to change the outcome.
Of course, all this is theoretical - in my state, Texas, there's really no chance of it being close.
I had some trouble accessing Slate a little while ago, in case others have the same problem, here is a copy of text as of 5:55PM EST:
... 12:15 p.m. PT
... If [Gov. Gray Davis] is recalled, there are widespread expectations--again, for whatever they may be worth--that Republican Arnold
--
Early Exit
Kerry leads.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:46 PM PT
The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:
Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45
Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50
New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51
Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53
Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.
For an explanation of why Slate is posting exit-poll numbers, see the previous post, below.
Exit Poll Charade: Why Slate is posting the exit-poll numbers: As this item posts, the first raw exit-poll data are streaming from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers--big city newspapers and other broadcasters.
These early exit-poll numbers do not divine the name of the winner. Instead, regard these numbers as a sportswriter does the line scores from the fourth inning of a baseball game. The leading team might win the game, but then again it might not. But having the early data in front of him helps the sportswriter plot the story he thinks he'll need to write at game's end.
Continue Article
As you read this posting, the political reporters at the networks, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, NPR, Newsweek, and about two dozen other news outlets are cracking their knuckles over their keyboards, contemplating the story, while statisticians and political analysts at the networks prepare to run the numbers through their computer models to generate a prediction.
The paid users of exit-poll data have signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes, and the networks have promised not to call any states before their polls close. But the numbers always leak out to other journalists--such as the writers at Slate--and starting at about 5 p.m. ET or so, the news anchors start giving clues about what they've learned from the exit-poll results. As John Tierney writes in today's New York Times, the result on television is sometimes like a "version of the Dance of the Seven Veils, in which anchors or correspondents will pretend not to know what's happening in a state but give enough clues for the discerning viewer. They might allude to the high spirits at one campaign headquarters, or start speculating about what effect the loss of this state would have on the other candidate."
In the 2003 gubernatorial election in California, the networks kept their solemn oath not to call the winner until polls closed at 11 p.m. ET. Just the same, CBS News' Dan Rather telegraphed his findings in this 6:30 p.m. ET broadcast.
With voting still under way in the California governor recall election, CBS News exit polls, for whatever, if anything, they may be worth, now indicate many voters made up their minds weeks ago.
The success in Ohio and Florida depends on the high voter turnout - if people stay home, because they think the race is over, Kerry could lose. BTW Zogby is giving similar predictions, Kerry winning 311 eleven electoral votes. http://www.zogby.com/
Would Michael have posted this if Bush was in the lead?
I'm not so sure this is ethically the right thing to do, as it may have a bearing on the election if many people see it. Recall the problems in Florida in 2000 when Fox called the state for Gore. I believe the McLauglin Group said that quite a few western Floridians (a strongly Republican area) did not vote because of the news.
If the news is supposed to be unbiased, and allowing polling information is to bias the electorate, then perhaps they should just sit on the information until that state is closed.
Can't we impatient Americans wait until tomorrow to find out who won?
HULK: 15,020 BUSH: 14,531 KERRY: 14,192
but it is open for voting (for the last night) in 2 hours.
But I don't see the Big Green Guy listed in Slate's numbers, so it doesn't bode well for Hulk for President
Hulk SMASH Celiac Disease
"Afternoon Exit Polls - The latest batch.
By Jack Shafer - Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:29 PM PT - The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:
Florida - Kerry 52 - Bush 48
Ohio - Kerry 52 - Bush 47
Michigan - Kerry 51 - Bush 48
Pennsylvania - Kerry 58 - Bush 42
Iowa - Kerry 50 - Bush 48
Wisconsin - Kerry 53 - Bush 47
Minnesota - Kerry 57 - Bush 42
New Hampshire - Kerry 58 - Bush 41
Maine - Kerry 55 - Bush 44
New Mexico - Kerry 49 - Bush 49
Nevada - Kerry 48 - Bush 49
Colorado - Kerry 49 - Bush 50
Arkansas - Kerry 45 - Bush 54
North Carolina - Kerry 47 - Bush 53"
It's still too early to be sure about anything, but this is a lot better than i've been fearing for the past few weeks.
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and cell-phones tell the story. A heavy turnout means that younger people are voting, and they favor Kerry. It was means that there are also many first-time voters; this also favors Kerry.
A lot of young people never get contacted in the National polls as the pollsters usually do not call cell phone numbers.
Zogby has already called it for Kerry 311 to 213.
Early results/predictions are interesting, but that's all.
Election results: early or accurate, pick one.
Zogby is calling it for Kerry. In a landslide.
You really need to work on your formatting. I really can't read that.
Take these with a grain of salt but here you go:
5PM EST exit polls... From an email sent by a Demo staffer on the Hill.
PRESIDENTIAL
FLorida: Kerry up by four
Ohio: Kerry up by five
Michigan: Kerry up by four
Pennsyvlania: Kerry up by 16
Iowa: Kerry up by 2
Wisconsin: Kerry up by 5
Minnesota: Kerry up by 15
Nevada: Bush up by one
New Mexico: tied at 49
Virginia: Bush up by one
North Carolina: Bush up by 5
Maine: 55-44 Kerry, with Kerry winning both congressional districts avoiding an electoral college split.
Colorado: Kerry inched up to 51-49 lead as of 3 pm
Chew: You Nexus, huh? I design your eyes.
Roy: Chew, if only you could see what I've seen with your eyes.
DailyKOS.com has a lot more info than slate has and had it a lot earlier. Also, I was talking to a DNC member and the internal top secret DNC polls supposedly had Kerry only losing in Virginia by 1%. I guess I'm not supposed to tell anyone, but oh well.
----
WrongPlanet.net
The Television Wiki
Comment removed based on user account deletion
The Iraq war really confirmed that for me. That set of events caused me do research on the politics of the Right versus the Left. Because of my research, I will never cast another vote for a Republican again, and I will in the future take every opportunity to vote 3rd party.
Thanks for posting this.
eat shiat and bark at the moon
Would Michael have posted this if Bush was in the lead?
Who cares? It's news. Michael is just some guy who posts stories on Slashdot. I really don't think that determining what his political views are is nearly as important as determing who is going to be the next President of the United States.
It's not yet time for Republicans to despair or Democrats to celebrate. These early numbers are notoriously unreliable. There has already been a significant shift from the mid-day numbers released at 2:00 to the afternoon numbers we are looking at now. For instance PA went from Kerry by 20 at 2:00 to Kerry by 9 in these late afternoon numbers from Slate - right now it's down to a 4 point lead. In 2002 there were double digit shifts from mid-day early numbers to the final results.
It's a poll. The early numbers aren't not even a scientific poll... just some of the raw data that will eventually end up in a scientific poll. To coin a phrase: "If you're using these numbers to do anything important, you're insane."
It you're in Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, or North Carolina, are registered to vote, and haven't voted, and the polls are still open, get your ass to the polls. They are very close.
That is the real reason why the futures markets are heading Kerry's way BIG, and why all the cable tv news talking heads look like they are at a funeral: the turnout at certain, key Democratic precincts is HUGE, and significantly higher than corresponding GOP precincts.
KERRY WINS!!
But still, if you are a liberal/Democrat--go VOTE.
However, you may want to vote strategically: if you are a liberal in a solid red state, vote rightwing 3rd party--build up the Constitution Party (or if the Constitution party candidate Peroutka is not on the ballot in your state, vote for the Libertarian candidate, Badnarik). THat way, your vote strengthens the future competition for conservative votes. That is the only way the Leftwing party, the Green Party, can grow--by growing the Rightwing parties using liberal votes in red states.
This country desperately needs some creative destruction applied to our govt and our electoral system. But the only way to get that is through 3rd parties. So, go build up the 3rd parties.
eat shiat and bark at the moon
The CBC has a great little flash animation of the election results. http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2004/11/02/ uselec041102.html
Hope y'all find it helpful.
Bush has 4 states, Kerry has 1.
Mind Booster Noori
Seeing as CNN has already given West Virgina to Bush and Slate gives it to Kerry with a comfortable margin, I wouldn't hold this as gospel yet.
nos laetus epulor qui would domito nos
As the evening goes on, this race is tightening to a virtual tie nationwide. Kerry's people aren't talking much, but National Review says they're talking to people in Washington that says Ohio and Florida should trend back to Bush by the end of the evening. Kerry's own people are worried about Oregon now, a state that wasn't supposed to be in play. This is going to be razor close until late tonight.
Life is hard, and the world is cruel
So are we just getting an odd set of precincts reporting first, or is the official vote vastly different (statistically speaking) from the exit polls?
[tinfoil-hat]
At what point do we demand some kind of investigation, especially given the number of Diebold machines in Florida? This is the first time i've been glad for the exit polls, which will hopefully provide some check on votes getting changed after they're cast.
[/tinfoil-hat]
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He just "blasted the system" on CNN talking about how we all keep voting for the same crap year after year and how the lobbyists control everything and how the major parties rig things to keep others out.
I think that's about the most insightful thing I've heard from any major media outlet this whole election cycle, and it totally blew me away. I never expected anyone from the major media to wise up that much, and even if they did I wouldn't have expected them to air anything like that. CNN gets my support for political coverage if they keep this up.
'Portraits of Fascists' Thought I'd let you know.
I voted George Walker! /obscure.. /stupid
Slate believes...
That it has a right to screw up the election. Thumbs up guys!
If Google really cared they would fix Android Chrome to reflow text, instead of discriminating
Perfect example of the Republican bias of Slashdot. These are facts! Check the sources!
In 2000, they called Florida for Gore prematurely, while the polls in Florida were still open. (They switched to Bush during the night.)
Wolf Blitzer, Larry King etc. were talking about that mess just now on CNN, and how that was an embarassing mistake.
This year, they waited untill all the polls in the state closed, before calling the state. And now they will be more careful, looking more closely at the actual vote numbers and having three possible outcomes: Bush, Kerry or Too close to call.
I see the mods have been watching F911 along with the rest of the world.
Irene KHAAAAAAN!
... in London, UK watching BBC report results as they're called in, it seems almost surreal to have witnessed the biggest amount of nationalistic fervour I've ever seen for US democracy, free speech, US military prowess and all the usual 'patriotic' rubbish that flows unendingly from ignorant US citizens and then to see queues of voters queueing for upto 5 hours or more to cast their vote.
... the list goes on and on.
..... shall I go on ?
..... but you'll have my sympathy and if anyone wants to claim asylum here in the EU, just say so and we'll see what we can work out :-)
And you still want to try to convince me that that is the 'best democracy' in the world ? LOL
I've never ever had to wait longer than about 3 minutes to collect a ballot paper to vote in the UK. And there is always a paper trail. Always. It's viewed as highly undemocratic not to have a paper trail for voting in the UK. And electronic voting has all but been ruled out here as it's so easy to tamper with.
Democrat voter intimidation, dodgy unauditable electronic voting machines, voice mail calls from "Bill Clinton" telling democrats to vote on wednesday, tricking students on campus to register as Republican by signing a pretend petition,
Your written constitution is in danger of being sidelined by Christian fundamentalists who wish to allow judges to be allowed to use a 'higher power' in it's place whenever they like, the Supreme Court may end up being totally Republican, the White is 'sponsored' by Halliburton et el, the deficit is reputed to be a trillion dollars or more, US healthcare has ever growing discrepancies between rich and poor, more US corporations are moving their head offices to tax exempt territories, the IT jobs market is shrinking as it's being outsourced to the rest of the world, more and more people are being disenfranshised at every turn, a state of continuous war is now some kind of standard way of life, a war against another sovereign nation with no connections to Al Queda, fear mongering at it's highest since WWII when even Japanese attacks on US mainland didn't even bring the US into the war (Pearl habour did it though)
If you rely on CNN, Fox news, ABC, NBC etc then you are being misinformed. And you can guess the reason why.
If Bush gets back in and the draft comes in and more and more of you start being killed in action, you can't plead ignorance and that you didn't know. All of this information is on the Internet freely available to read
Wage peace not war.
... UK terrestrial reports
Bush 197
Kerry 112
as of 3:39 GMT.
Oh, Man /. is not biased, /. can be a objective source for political news. Slate...really good source. Eat Crow a-holes.
/. I boycotted it, you should too!
Screw
ABC calls Florida for Bush as of about 11:45 pm est. (Fox news has yet to do so as of 12:00 pm est.) Bush is also up by 4 points in Ohio with 70% of the precincts in. I'd say the exit polls are rather off! There is still plenty of time left to go this evening, but I'd say this election is going to Bush.
It also appears that the Republicans are picking up at least 1-2 seats in the Senate. The House is projected to remain under Republican control. It looks like 2-4 more years of a GOP mandate for the US.
According to these exits polls, Kerry should have won, 316 to 222.
The poll gave Florida, Ohio and New Mexico to Kerry.
And this poll came out before any polling places were closed, so there was definitely the possibility that they may have influenced the vote with faulty information.
Wow, I had no idea Cuba was so f'ing great that those people on homemade rafts trying to land in Florida, were actually spreading the word on how great Cuba is. Or was the point of your post, that rich men will pay money to have sex with beautiful women, in that case let me inform you of the equally shocking water still wet, ice still cold.
I laughed at the weak who considered themselves good because they lacked claws.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Sorry, I see your comprehension skills are beyond terrible so I will now use additional tags to make my point clear. The revolution was so sucessful that people are fleeing the island. My point about the prostitution mentioned in the parent posts little sotry was that the would probably be prostituiton with out the "Mafia maggots". Perhaps you have heard the expression out of the pan and into the fire? Now, I am not defending Batista, but Castro's Cuba isn't that great. You see when I asked "Or was..." I was being sarcastic. Nowdo you comprehend?
I laughed at the weak who considered themselves good because they lacked claws.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
My IQ was tested 4 days before election day. I voted for Bush. My IQ is 126. These figures about inbreeding and Down Syndrome are both gross generalizations and demeaning to persons afflicted with Down Syndrome. As for the sheep comment and the armless boys comment, you prove yourself a fucktard.
Perhaps you should stop trying to pretend you're from America, Monsieur AC.